气候变化对中国粮食安全的影响与对策研究
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摘要
当前,以全球变暖为代表的气候变化已经是不争的事实,中国是一个人口大国,确保粮食安全历来是中国政府农业政策最主要的政策目标之一。中国的粮食安全问题也素来是中外学者关注的焦点问题之一,然而,已有的大量研究大都忽视了气候变化的因素。本研究即是致力于评估改革开放以来气候变化对我国粮食产量的影响并预测21世纪中叶气候变化对中国粮食安全的影响,并提出适应性政策建议。
本研究重点主要集中在两个方面:一是评价气候变化对中国粮食产量的影响,既包括对历史影响的评估,也预测了21世纪中叶气候变化对中国粮食产量影响;二是对未来中国粮食产量和需求量的预测,并以此为基础评估了21世纪中叶气候变化对中国粮食安全的影响,最终提出应对对策建议。
研究过程中,选用了非市场产品价值评估方法中的生产函数法来评价气候变化对中国粮食产量的影响,分别对稻谷、小麦和玉米构建了1979年至2007年包含14个省市的面板数据模型,生产函数选用经典的C-D函数。对21世纪中叶粮食安全的预测,考虑到较长时间序列中的灰色因素较多,故选择了灰色预测模型GM(1,1)分别预测了我国中长期粮食的产量和需求量。
本研究得出以下主要结论:
1.气温的上升、降水的增加以及日照时数的增加,对粮食生产的影响都是负面的,其显著性随品种的不同有所差异。
2.总体来看,改革开放以来,气候变化对中国粮食产量的影响是正面的,对粮食增产做出了将近3%的贡献,这主要得益于稻谷布局的适时调整,使气候变化对稻谷增产做出了正面的贡献。
3.不考虑国际市场和国家仓储的情况下,近几年我国粮食安全问题比较乐观,最近十年不会出现大的粮食安全问题。到2017年开始出现国内生产不能满足消费的情况,并且缺口扩大得很快,主要是玉米的消费急剧增长。从长远看,粮食安全问题令人担忧。
4.总体来看,我国的粮食安全经历了口粮安全——饲料用粮安全——工业用粮安全的阶段。目前我国已经解决了口粮安全问题,正处于饲料用粮安全阶段,到2017年工业用粮安全问题会日益突出。
5.不管是A2还是B2气候情景下,21世纪中叶气候变化对我国粮食产量的影响情景非常严峻,尤其是玉米减产严重;稻谷对气候变化的适应性表现较好。
6.对于幅员辽阔和气候类型分布较广的中国来说,只要合理布局农业,加大科技投入,是可以降低气候变化对粮食产量的负面影响的。
本文可能的创新点主要在于:
(1)选题和研究内容新颖:国际上现有关注气候变化对水资源、农业系统、作物生产影响的研究成果较多,针对粮食安全的研究相对较少,国内更是罕见。本研究关注改革开放以来气候变化对中国粮食产量的影响,进而预测其在21世纪中叶对我国粮食安全的影响。从选题来看,是对国内这一研究空白的尝试。
(2)研究角度新颖:现有的研究成果多数来自自然科学领域,国际上从经济学的视角开展气候变化对粮食生产影响的研究是近十年的事,研究成果也相对较少,国内更是刚刚起步。本研究用经济手段研究气候变化对中国粮食安全的影响,并从提出应对性措施建议,研究角度新颖。
(3)方法创新:运用生产函数法评估气候变化对中国粮食安全的影响,其中会考虑区域的差异和制度变迁,从而构建含两组虚拟变量的面板数据;运用灰色模型预测中长期中国粮食需求,并进行残差序列周期修正以反映气候变化等长期因素等,这些都是方法上的创新。
本文研究发现,对于疆域广阔的中国来说,只要合理、适当布局和调整农业结构,我们是有条件、有可能在相当大的程度上避免气候变化对粮食生产的影响,甚至充分发挥其对粮食生产有利的影响。因此,对于农业部门来说,为了积极应对气候变化,如何在目前的基础上对内合理的调整农业布局,对外如何调整我国粮食对国际贸易格局,是今后亟待研究的问题。
另外,应对气候变化,全球已经、正在并且会继续进行艰苦的谈判,低碳经济已经得到相当的共识。应对气候变化,整个国民经济和产业结构也会做出相应的调整,许多促使碳减排的政策措施必然会导致农药、化肥、农业机械等农业生产资料的涨价,继而影响到粮食部门并导致处于劣势的广大小农处境更加艰难。如何评估气候变化对农民利益的影响并最大限度的保护农民利益,亦是值得探讨的问题。
Nowadays, it is acknowledged that our climate is changing violently day after day which is represented by global warming. As a country with quite a large population, it is one of the main targets in agriculture policy made by our government to ensure the safety in food supply. Problems in food safety in China is the focus for scholars both domestic and abroad all the time, however, most of their study has ignored the influence by climate change. This dissertation aims to evaluate the impact caused by climate change on grain output in China since the implement of the open door policy, estimate the impact from climate change on food safety in the middle 21st century and propose sensible policy advice.
The emphases of this dissertation are the following two: one is to estimate the impact from climate change on grain yield, including both impacts in the history and in the middle 21st century. The other is to forecast the grain output and demand in the future, and on the basis of that I estimate the impact from climate change on food safety in the middle 21st century, at last, give some advice.
In the study I performance a model to rice, wheat and corn respectively from 1979 to 2007 in 14 provinces with the classic C-D function. In forecasting the impact in the middle 21st century I choose the gray model GM( 1,1 )because there are more gray factors in long term, forecasting respectively grain output and demand in middle and long term.
The following conclusions are drawn from this study:
1. The rising of temperature, increasing of precipitation and hours of sunshine bring negative impact on the production of grain, and the significance varies among rice, wheat and corn.
2. Generally speaking, the influence of climate change on China's grain production is positive since the reform and opening up—has made contributions to the higher productivity of food nearly 3 percent. This mainly due to the timely adjustment of the layout of rice and take advantage of climate change to make a positive contribution to the rice production.
3. The issue of our country's grain security is optimistic recent years without consideration of the international market and country store, and there is no serious problem of grain security last decade. The situation of domestic production can not meet the consumption start at 2017, and the gap expands rapidly, primarily due to the great growth of corn consumption. In the long run, the issue of grain security is an alarming problem.
4. Chinese grain security experience the phases of edible grain security—feed grain security—industrial grain security. Having got through the problem of edible grain security, now we are in the phases of feed grain security, and the problem of industrial grain security will stand out since 2017.
5. Either under the A2 or B2 climate scenario, the climate change of mid-21st century would bring serious impact to Chinese grain output, especially the case for corn, which will have a badly output reduction; the adaptation to climate change of rice is better than other grain.
6. The negative impact of climate change on grain production could be much reduced for China with such vast territory and quite a lot of climate types by sound agricultural layout and more technology.
In this dissertation, the innovation may be mainly lie in:
Firstly, the topic selected is pioneering and exploratory. There are quite some research concerning about the impact of climate change on water resources, agricultural systems and crop production, but rare about grain security, especially domestic ones. This study has been concerned about the impact of climate change on Chinese grain security since reform and opening up and in the mid-21st century. From this point of view, the dissertation is trying to fill in the study blank.
Secondly, the angle of view is unique. The existing researches are mainly from natural sciences field. It is just ten year of studying the impact of climate change on grain producing internationally, so the research production is comparatively rare. This study is from economic sciences field with economic approaches.
And lastly, the research approaches used in the dissertation are innovative. Performing production function approach to evaluate the impact of climate change on Chinese grain security, which take into account regional differences and institutional changes, thereby building a panel data with two set of dummy variables; using gray models to forecast the consumption of Chinese grain in the long run, carrying through residual sequence cycle amendment to reflect the influence of long-term factors such as climate change, which are innovation of approaches.
The dissertation found that it is possible for China with such vast territory and quite a lot of climate types to avoid the impact of climate change on grain production by sound agricultural layout and more technology even make full use of the benefit from climate change. Therefore the major and significant problem for our agricultural department is that how to adjust the agricultural layout at home and how to adjust our international trade layout to adapt climate change.
Moreover, international negotiations were, are and will be going on, and low carbon economy has acquired much agreement. National economy and industrial construction will be adjusted to adapt climate change. The policy and measure aiming to decrease carbon emission are bound to cause rise in price of pesticide, chemical fertilizer and agricultural machine and then bring more difficult to the household in disadvantage. Therefore how to evaluate the impact of climate change on household' benefit and how to protect their benefit are quite worth discussing in the future as well.
本研究重点主要集中在两个方面:一是评价气候变化对中国粮食产量的影响,既包括对历史影响的评估,也预测了21世纪中叶气候变化对中国粮食产量影响;二是对未来中国粮食产量和需求量的预测,并以此为基础评估了21世纪中叶气候变化对中国粮食安全的影响,最终提出应对对策建议。
研究过程中,选用了非市场产品价值评估方法中的生产函数法来评价气候变化对中国粮食产量的影响,分别对稻谷、小麦和玉米构建了1979年至2007年包含14个省市的面板数据模型,生产函数选用经典的C-D函数。对21世纪中叶粮食安全的预测,考虑到较长时间序列中的灰色因素较多,故选择了灰色预测模型GM(1,1)分别预测了我国中长期粮食的产量和需求量。
本研究得出以下主要结论:
1.气温的上升、降水的增加以及日照时数的增加,对粮食生产的影响都是负面的,其显著性随品种的不同有所差异。
2.总体来看,改革开放以来,气候变化对中国粮食产量的影响是正面的,对粮食增产做出了将近3%的贡献,这主要得益于稻谷布局的适时调整,使气候变化对稻谷增产做出了正面的贡献。
3.不考虑国际市场和国家仓储的情况下,近几年我国粮食安全问题比较乐观,最近十年不会出现大的粮食安全问题。到2017年开始出现国内生产不能满足消费的情况,并且缺口扩大得很快,主要是玉米的消费急剧增长。从长远看,粮食安全问题令人担忧。
4.总体来看,我国的粮食安全经历了口粮安全——饲料用粮安全——工业用粮安全的阶段。目前我国已经解决了口粮安全问题,正处于饲料用粮安全阶段,到2017年工业用粮安全问题会日益突出。
5.不管是A2还是B2气候情景下,21世纪中叶气候变化对我国粮食产量的影响情景非常严峻,尤其是玉米减产严重;稻谷对气候变化的适应性表现较好。
6.对于幅员辽阔和气候类型分布较广的中国来说,只要合理布局农业,加大科技投入,是可以降低气候变化对粮食产量的负面影响的。
本文可能的创新点主要在于:
(1)选题和研究内容新颖:国际上现有关注气候变化对水资源、农业系统、作物生产影响的研究成果较多,针对粮食安全的研究相对较少,国内更是罕见。本研究关注改革开放以来气候变化对中国粮食产量的影响,进而预测其在21世纪中叶对我国粮食安全的影响。从选题来看,是对国内这一研究空白的尝试。
(2)研究角度新颖:现有的研究成果多数来自自然科学领域,国际上从经济学的视角开展气候变化对粮食生产影响的研究是近十年的事,研究成果也相对较少,国内更是刚刚起步。本研究用经济手段研究气候变化对中国粮食安全的影响,并从提出应对性措施建议,研究角度新颖。
(3)方法创新:运用生产函数法评估气候变化对中国粮食安全的影响,其中会考虑区域的差异和制度变迁,从而构建含两组虚拟变量的面板数据;运用灰色模型预测中长期中国粮食需求,并进行残差序列周期修正以反映气候变化等长期因素等,这些都是方法上的创新。
本文研究发现,对于疆域广阔的中国来说,只要合理、适当布局和调整农业结构,我们是有条件、有可能在相当大的程度上避免气候变化对粮食生产的影响,甚至充分发挥其对粮食生产有利的影响。因此,对于农业部门来说,为了积极应对气候变化,如何在目前的基础上对内合理的调整农业布局,对外如何调整我国粮食对国际贸易格局,是今后亟待研究的问题。
另外,应对气候变化,全球已经、正在并且会继续进行艰苦的谈判,低碳经济已经得到相当的共识。应对气候变化,整个国民经济和产业结构也会做出相应的调整,许多促使碳减排的政策措施必然会导致农药、化肥、农业机械等农业生产资料的涨价,继而影响到粮食部门并导致处于劣势的广大小农处境更加艰难。如何评估气候变化对农民利益的影响并最大限度的保护农民利益,亦是值得探讨的问题。
Nowadays, it is acknowledged that our climate is changing violently day after day which is represented by global warming. As a country with quite a large population, it is one of the main targets in agriculture policy made by our government to ensure the safety in food supply. Problems in food safety in China is the focus for scholars both domestic and abroad all the time, however, most of their study has ignored the influence by climate change. This dissertation aims to evaluate the impact caused by climate change on grain output in China since the implement of the open door policy, estimate the impact from climate change on food safety in the middle 21st century and propose sensible policy advice.
The emphases of this dissertation are the following two: one is to estimate the impact from climate change on grain yield, including both impacts in the history and in the middle 21st century. The other is to forecast the grain output and demand in the future, and on the basis of that I estimate the impact from climate change on food safety in the middle 21st century, at last, give some advice.
In the study I performance a model to rice, wheat and corn respectively from 1979 to 2007 in 14 provinces with the classic C-D function. In forecasting the impact in the middle 21st century I choose the gray model GM( 1,1 )because there are more gray factors in long term, forecasting respectively grain output and demand in middle and long term.
The following conclusions are drawn from this study:
1. The rising of temperature, increasing of precipitation and hours of sunshine bring negative impact on the production of grain, and the significance varies among rice, wheat and corn.
2. Generally speaking, the influence of climate change on China's grain production is positive since the reform and opening up—has made contributions to the higher productivity of food nearly 3 percent. This mainly due to the timely adjustment of the layout of rice and take advantage of climate change to make a positive contribution to the rice production.
3. The issue of our country's grain security is optimistic recent years without consideration of the international market and country store, and there is no serious problem of grain security last decade. The situation of domestic production can not meet the consumption start at 2017, and the gap expands rapidly, primarily due to the great growth of corn consumption. In the long run, the issue of grain security is an alarming problem.
4. Chinese grain security experience the phases of edible grain security—feed grain security—industrial grain security. Having got through the problem of edible grain security, now we are in the phases of feed grain security, and the problem of industrial grain security will stand out since 2017.
5. Either under the A2 or B2 climate scenario, the climate change of mid-21st century would bring serious impact to Chinese grain output, especially the case for corn, which will have a badly output reduction; the adaptation to climate change of rice is better than other grain.
6. The negative impact of climate change on grain production could be much reduced for China with such vast territory and quite a lot of climate types by sound agricultural layout and more technology.
In this dissertation, the innovation may be mainly lie in:
Firstly, the topic selected is pioneering and exploratory. There are quite some research concerning about the impact of climate change on water resources, agricultural systems and crop production, but rare about grain security, especially domestic ones. This study has been concerned about the impact of climate change on Chinese grain security since reform and opening up and in the mid-21st century. From this point of view, the dissertation is trying to fill in the study blank.
Secondly, the angle of view is unique. The existing researches are mainly from natural sciences field. It is just ten year of studying the impact of climate change on grain producing internationally, so the research production is comparatively rare. This study is from economic sciences field with economic approaches.
And lastly, the research approaches used in the dissertation are innovative. Performing production function approach to evaluate the impact of climate change on Chinese grain security, which take into account regional differences and institutional changes, thereby building a panel data with two set of dummy variables; using gray models to forecast the consumption of Chinese grain in the long run, carrying through residual sequence cycle amendment to reflect the influence of long-term factors such as climate change, which are innovation of approaches.
The dissertation found that it is possible for China with such vast territory and quite a lot of climate types to avoid the impact of climate change on grain production by sound agricultural layout and more technology even make full use of the benefit from climate change. Therefore the major and significant problem for our agricultural department is that how to adjust the agricultural layout at home and how to adjust our international trade layout to adapt climate change.
Moreover, international negotiations were, are and will be going on, and low carbon economy has acquired much agreement. National economy and industrial construction will be adjusted to adapt climate change. The policy and measure aiming to decrease carbon emission are bound to cause rise in price of pesticide, chemical fertilizer and agricultural machine and then bring more difficult to the household in disadvantage. Therefore how to evaluate the impact of climate change on household' benefit and how to protect their benefit are quite worth discussing in the future as well.
引文
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