社会保障对人力资本及经济增长影响的研究
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摘要
改革开放30年,我国经济发展取得举世瞩目的成绩,但是伴随经济发展和人口老龄化,我国长期以来依赖于廉价劳动力的粗放式增长模式已经无法持续下去。要保持经济持续稳定健康发展就需要寻找新的经济增长点。从新经济增长理论的角度,加强人力资本积累,提高劳动者的质量,用劳动者的质量优势来替代数量优势,不仅有利于促进科学技术进步,而且有利于经济结构的调整和升级,最终推动经济持续增长。
本文从社会保障的角度,在迭代模型和新经济增长理论的框架下,对社会保障、人力资本积累和经济增长之间的关系进行了理论分析。在此基础上,运用协整理论和向量自回归模型等方法对三者的关系进行了实证分析。本文主要从以下几个方面展开研究。
首先,分析了社会保障影响人力资本积累的作用机制。社会保障对人力资本积累的促进作用主要表现在教育投资和非教育投资两方面,其中教育型投资包括正规学校教育和非正规教育如培训、干中学等,非教育性投资指人力资本流动和健康保健等。社会保障通过影响这些因素而最终对人力资本积累产生影响。
其次,以戴蒙德的迭代模型为理论基础,深入分析了社会保障如何通过对生育率和退休行为的影响来影响教育投资进而对人力资本积累产生作用。在生育率方面,本文在个体具有不同利他动机和是否存在遗产动机的前提假设下分析了现收现付制和基金积累社会保障制度对人力资本积累的作用。在现收现付制养老保险体制下,若不存在遗产动机,无论个体具有向下、向上或无利他主义动机,养老保险缴费率与生育率均成反向变化关系；当个体具有向下利他主义且存在遗产动机时,提高养老保险缴费率将会引起生育率上升；当个体具有双向利他主义且不存在遗产动机时,养老保险缴费率与生育率之间的变化方向不明确。在基金制养老保险体制下,当个体具有向下利他主义且不存在遗产动机时,养老保险缴费率与生育率之间没有关系。在退休行为方面,本文分别分析了在抽象的和具体的效用函数两种情形下三种社会保障制度对退休行为的影响。无论选取何种社会保障制度,当效用函数具体化时,提高社会保障缴费率将激励劳动者提前退休,不利于人力资本投资。
再次,本文从成本与收益的角度分别分析了确定缴费制和确定给付制以及收入关联制和均一费率制社会保障对人力资本迁移的影响。在确定缴费制下,劳动者在整个工作期发生的工作迁移次数可能大于确定给付制下劳动者的迁移次数。当预期的均一费率制下的社会保障收益较高时,劳动者将愿意从收入关联制国家向均一费率制国家迁移；当国与国之间的迁移率提高时,均一费率制社会保障制度对教育投资有激励作用。此外,本文基于我国社会保障制度现状,定量分析了我国社会保障制度改革对人力资本迁移和健康保健的影响,结果表明我国社会保障的完善和发展有利于人力资本迁移和健康保健,但是我国社会保障的问题和缺陷也阻碍人力资本迁移和健康保健的发展。
然后,本文基于迭代模型和新经济增长理论,分别对三种社会保障对教育投资和经济增长之间的影响进行了理论分析。研究显示在现收现付制社会保障体制下,从人力资本效应的角度,社会保障缴费率的提高将阻碍人力资本积累和经济增长；在基金积累制社会保障体制下,社会保障缴费率提高有利于人力资本投资：若不考虑储蓄率的影响,社会保障缴费率与经济增长率成正向变动关系。在部分积累制社会保障体制下,个人账户与经济增长呈正比,社会统筹与人力资本积累的关系取决于物质资本的产出贡献率和劳动者收入的税率的取值；社会保障缴费比例与经济增长率之间仍成反向关系。
最后,本文运用协整理论、向量自回归模型、脉冲响应函数和方差分解等方法对三者的关系进行了实证分析,其结论与理论分析的部分结论一致：我国社会保障水平提高有利于人力资本积累；外部冲击对它的影响将使人力资本积累和经济增长发生变动,这种影响有正面的也有负面的。基于理论分析和实证分析的结论,对我国社会保障制度改革提出相关政策建议,以促进人力资本积累和经济增长,其中包括提高社会保障水平；降低社会保障的缴费水平；减少社会保障的区域差异,提高社会保障的统筹层次；完善医疗保障制度,降低医疗支出费用。
China has made great achievements in economic development, attracting worldwide attention since the reform and opening-up. With the development of economy and aging population, our economic growth model that relied on cheap labor could not be sustainable. Therefore, we need search for new sources of economic growth. From the perspective of new economic growth theory, strengthening human capital accumulation and improving the labor quality instead of quantity advantage are not only beneficial to technology progress, but also to the adjustment of Economic Structure, which ultimately promote economic growth.
From the perspective of social security, this paper analyzes the relationship between social security system, human capital accumulation and economic growth in the theoretical framework of an overlapping generation endogenous growth model, on the basis of which the triadic relation is straightened out from the perspective of co-integration theory and VAR model through empirical analyses. Several primary sections are included in the paper.
Firstly, the dissertation discusses the mechanisms of social security system in human capital accumulation. The effects of social security system on human capital accumulation are manifested in two aspects:educational investment and non-educational investment. The former includes school education, training, and learning by doing, the latter includes migration of human capital and health care. Social security system will influence favorably human capital accumulation in the due course by influencing these factors.
Secondly, the dissertation analyzes the impact of social security system on educational investment, which will eventually influence human capital accumulation, through fertility rate and retirement. In terms of fertility rate, what role pay-as-you-go and funded social security system play on human capital accumulation on the premises of altruism and bequests are discussed in this part. Under pay-as-you-go social security system, without bequests, the pension contribution rate varied inversely with fertility rate besides the case of intergeneration altruism, in which the relation was uncertain. Raising the pension contribution rate will enhance fertility rate in the case of parental altruism with bequests. Under funded security system, the pension contribution rate has nothing to do with fertility rate in the case of parental altruism without bequests. As for retirement, it is studied that how social security system of different types influence retirement in a concrete and an abstract utility functions. Under whatever social security system, increasing social security contribution rate would stimulate early retirement and be bad for human capital accumulation when utility functions is concretized.
Thirdly, the dissertation makes a comparative analysis on the impact of definite contribution social security system with definite benefits social security system and earnings-related benefits with flat-rate benefits on human capital migration. Definite contribution social security system would encourage the labor force to migrate. Higher expected social security benefits of the country with flat-rate benefits would attract the labor to settle in, The possibility of emigration boosts investments in human capital in the country with flat-rate benefits. In addition, on the base of our social security situations, what influence the reform of social security system exert on human capital migration and health care is discussed through quantitative analyses. The findings indicate the development of social security is beneficial to human capital migration and health care on the one hand, on the other hand, the problems and defects in our social security system impede the development of human capital migration and health care.
Fourthly, in the framework of a steady state growth, with overlapping generations, this article theoretically discusses the impact of social security system on educational investment and economic growth. Under the pay-as-you-go system, social security contribution rate may handicap human capital accumulation and economic growth from a savings or human capital point of view. Under the funded system, the contribution rate is good for human capital investment and economic growth without the impact of savings. Under the partial funded system, whether social pool or Individual Account rate have a positive effect on human capital accumulation depends on output contribution rate of substance capital and tax rate of income, which varies inversely with economic growth.
Lastly, by virtue of VAR model, co-integrated test, impulse responses function and variance decomposition methods, the paper has empirical analyses on the relation of three factors, some which are in agreement with the theoretical findings-Raising the level of social security is beneficial to human capital accumulation; external shocks on certain factor will bring some variations to human capital accumulation and economic growth, which maybe positive or negative. On the base of the theoretical and empirical conclusions, the paper makes some suggestions and proposals on Chinese social security system, such as improving social security benefits, lowering social security contribution rate, reducing the regional disparity, raising social security level, perfecting health insurance system.
本文从社会保障的角度,在迭代模型和新经济增长理论的框架下,对社会保障、人力资本积累和经济增长之间的关系进行了理论分析。在此基础上,运用协整理论和向量自回归模型等方法对三者的关系进行了实证分析。本文主要从以下几个方面展开研究。
首先,分析了社会保障影响人力资本积累的作用机制。社会保障对人力资本积累的促进作用主要表现在教育投资和非教育投资两方面,其中教育型投资包括正规学校教育和非正规教育如培训、干中学等,非教育性投资指人力资本流动和健康保健等。社会保障通过影响这些因素而最终对人力资本积累产生影响。
其次,以戴蒙德的迭代模型为理论基础,深入分析了社会保障如何通过对生育率和退休行为的影响来影响教育投资进而对人力资本积累产生作用。在生育率方面,本文在个体具有不同利他动机和是否存在遗产动机的前提假设下分析了现收现付制和基金积累社会保障制度对人力资本积累的作用。在现收现付制养老保险体制下,若不存在遗产动机,无论个体具有向下、向上或无利他主义动机,养老保险缴费率与生育率均成反向变化关系；当个体具有向下利他主义且存在遗产动机时,提高养老保险缴费率将会引起生育率上升；当个体具有双向利他主义且不存在遗产动机时,养老保险缴费率与生育率之间的变化方向不明确。在基金制养老保险体制下,当个体具有向下利他主义且不存在遗产动机时,养老保险缴费率与生育率之间没有关系。在退休行为方面,本文分别分析了在抽象的和具体的效用函数两种情形下三种社会保障制度对退休行为的影响。无论选取何种社会保障制度,当效用函数具体化时,提高社会保障缴费率将激励劳动者提前退休,不利于人力资本投资。
再次,本文从成本与收益的角度分别分析了确定缴费制和确定给付制以及收入关联制和均一费率制社会保障对人力资本迁移的影响。在确定缴费制下,劳动者在整个工作期发生的工作迁移次数可能大于确定给付制下劳动者的迁移次数。当预期的均一费率制下的社会保障收益较高时,劳动者将愿意从收入关联制国家向均一费率制国家迁移；当国与国之间的迁移率提高时,均一费率制社会保障制度对教育投资有激励作用。此外,本文基于我国社会保障制度现状,定量分析了我国社会保障制度改革对人力资本迁移和健康保健的影响,结果表明我国社会保障的完善和发展有利于人力资本迁移和健康保健,但是我国社会保障的问题和缺陷也阻碍人力资本迁移和健康保健的发展。
然后,本文基于迭代模型和新经济增长理论,分别对三种社会保障对教育投资和经济增长之间的影响进行了理论分析。研究显示在现收现付制社会保障体制下,从人力资本效应的角度,社会保障缴费率的提高将阻碍人力资本积累和经济增长；在基金积累制社会保障体制下,社会保障缴费率提高有利于人力资本投资：若不考虑储蓄率的影响,社会保障缴费率与经济增长率成正向变动关系。在部分积累制社会保障体制下,个人账户与经济增长呈正比,社会统筹与人力资本积累的关系取决于物质资本的产出贡献率和劳动者收入的税率的取值；社会保障缴费比例与经济增长率之间仍成反向关系。
最后,本文运用协整理论、向量自回归模型、脉冲响应函数和方差分解等方法对三者的关系进行了实证分析,其结论与理论分析的部分结论一致：我国社会保障水平提高有利于人力资本积累；外部冲击对它的影响将使人力资本积累和经济增长发生变动,这种影响有正面的也有负面的。基于理论分析和实证分析的结论,对我国社会保障制度改革提出相关政策建议,以促进人力资本积累和经济增长,其中包括提高社会保障水平；降低社会保障的缴费水平；减少社会保障的区域差异,提高社会保障的统筹层次；完善医疗保障制度,降低医疗支出费用。
China has made great achievements in economic development, attracting worldwide attention since the reform and opening-up. With the development of economy and aging population, our economic growth model that relied on cheap labor could not be sustainable. Therefore, we need search for new sources of economic growth. From the perspective of new economic growth theory, strengthening human capital accumulation and improving the labor quality instead of quantity advantage are not only beneficial to technology progress, but also to the adjustment of Economic Structure, which ultimately promote economic growth.
From the perspective of social security, this paper analyzes the relationship between social security system, human capital accumulation and economic growth in the theoretical framework of an overlapping generation endogenous growth model, on the basis of which the triadic relation is straightened out from the perspective of co-integration theory and VAR model through empirical analyses. Several primary sections are included in the paper.
Firstly, the dissertation discusses the mechanisms of social security system in human capital accumulation. The effects of social security system on human capital accumulation are manifested in two aspects:educational investment and non-educational investment. The former includes school education, training, and learning by doing, the latter includes migration of human capital and health care. Social security system will influence favorably human capital accumulation in the due course by influencing these factors.
Secondly, the dissertation analyzes the impact of social security system on educational investment, which will eventually influence human capital accumulation, through fertility rate and retirement. In terms of fertility rate, what role pay-as-you-go and funded social security system play on human capital accumulation on the premises of altruism and bequests are discussed in this part. Under pay-as-you-go social security system, without bequests, the pension contribution rate varied inversely with fertility rate besides the case of intergeneration altruism, in which the relation was uncertain. Raising the pension contribution rate will enhance fertility rate in the case of parental altruism with bequests. Under funded security system, the pension contribution rate has nothing to do with fertility rate in the case of parental altruism without bequests. As for retirement, it is studied that how social security system of different types influence retirement in a concrete and an abstract utility functions. Under whatever social security system, increasing social security contribution rate would stimulate early retirement and be bad for human capital accumulation when utility functions is concretized.
Thirdly, the dissertation makes a comparative analysis on the impact of definite contribution social security system with definite benefits social security system and earnings-related benefits with flat-rate benefits on human capital migration. Definite contribution social security system would encourage the labor force to migrate. Higher expected social security benefits of the country with flat-rate benefits would attract the labor to settle in, The possibility of emigration boosts investments in human capital in the country with flat-rate benefits. In addition, on the base of our social security situations, what influence the reform of social security system exert on human capital migration and health care is discussed through quantitative analyses. The findings indicate the development of social security is beneficial to human capital migration and health care on the one hand, on the other hand, the problems and defects in our social security system impede the development of human capital migration and health care.
Fourthly, in the framework of a steady state growth, with overlapping generations, this article theoretically discusses the impact of social security system on educational investment and economic growth. Under the pay-as-you-go system, social security contribution rate may handicap human capital accumulation and economic growth from a savings or human capital point of view. Under the funded system, the contribution rate is good for human capital investment and economic growth without the impact of savings. Under the partial funded system, whether social pool or Individual Account rate have a positive effect on human capital accumulation depends on output contribution rate of substance capital and tax rate of income, which varies inversely with economic growth.
Lastly, by virtue of VAR model, co-integrated test, impulse responses function and variance decomposition methods, the paper has empirical analyses on the relation of three factors, some which are in agreement with the theoretical findings-Raising the level of social security is beneficial to human capital accumulation; external shocks on certain factor will bring some variations to human capital accumulation and economic growth, which maybe positive or negative. On the base of the theoretical and empirical conclusions, the paper makes some suggestions and proposals on Chinese social security system, such as improving social security benefits, lowering social security contribution rate, reducing the regional disparity, raising social security level, perfecting health insurance system.
引文
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