基于DEMATEL-ANP水电施工现场安全评价模型研究
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摘要
随着我国国民经济的快速发展,我国水利水电工程施工行业也得到突飞猛进的发展,从困惑到适应,从自发到自为,成绩十分可观。但纵观近些年来我国水利水电工程施工行业的总体发展状况可知,由水利水电施工引起的安全生产伤亡事故却依然占很大比例,从表面上看,这些伤亡事故大多由人的违章行为引发的,但究其深层次原因,绝大多数事故都存在着安全管理上的缺陷和事故隐患。因此,如何提高水利水电工程施工安全管理水平是当前水利水电工程施工企业首要而且迫切的任务。
本文首先研究了我国水利水电工程现场施工的特点,根据水利水电工程施工安全技术相关法律法规、标准等文件,并结合专家意见及水利水电工程施工现场实际,建立水利水电工程施工现场安全评价指标体系。然后深入调查国内外水利水电工程施工现场安全评价现状,系统分析了当前国内外水利水电工程施工安全评价方法的优缺点及其差异性,提出了一种适用于水利水电工程施工现场的安全评价方法——DEMATEL-ANP方法。由于DEMATEL方法虽然能够计算各安全评价指标之间影响的强度,但是计算过程将各个安全评价指标权重视为相同,没有考虑到各安全评价指标之间权重有高低之分的情形,因此本文将DEMATEL方法与ANP方法结合,由DEMATEL方法确认各安全指标之间的影响强度,由ANP方法获得各安全指标的权重,通过建立基于DEMATEL-ANP方法的水利水电工程施工现场安全评价模型,得到的混合权重进行排序,找出其对应安全评价指标的排序,为施工企业安全管理提供分析依据。
Along with the rapid development of our national economy, China's hydropower engineering construction industry is also in rapid development, from confusion to adaption, from spontaneous to productive, the performance is very considerable. But looking at the total conditions of our country's hydropower engineering construction industry, it is known that the proportion of various fatal and injury accidents caused by hydropower engineering construction is still high. Superficially, these casualty accidents are mostly caused by the people’s illegal behavior, but investigating its deep reason, we will find that most of the accidents exist some of the defects and hidden dangers of accidents in safety management. Therefore, how to improve the water conservancy and hydropower engineering construction safety management level is the current hydropower engineering construction enterprise’s primary and urgent task.
The characteristics of the construction site in our hydropower engineering are studied in first in this dissertation. According to the water conservancy and hydropower engineering construction safety technology and related laws and regulations, standards, and other documents, and combined with expertise and practical conditions in the current hydropower engineering construction industry, the hydropower engineering construction site safety evaluation index system is established. And then the safety evaluation actualities are investigated in deep both at home and abroad, and the advantages and disadvantages and the discrepancies of the current safety evaluation methods are analyzed systematically, and a safety assessment method: DEMATEL-ANP method suitable for hydropower engineering construction site is put forward. Although DEMATEL method could calculate the degree of influences between the safety evaluation indexes, the weight of all the safety evaluation indexes are seen as the same during the process of computation. Therefore, combining DEMATEL method and ANP method, this paper confirms the degree of influences between the safety evaluation indexes by DEMATEL method and obtains the weight of the safety evaluation indexes by ANP method, and establishes the hydropower engineering construction site safety evaluation model with DEMATEL and ANP. And then the sorting of mixed weight is got, which provides analysis basis for the construction enterprise’safety management.
本文首先研究了我国水利水电工程现场施工的特点,根据水利水电工程施工安全技术相关法律法规、标准等文件,并结合专家意见及水利水电工程施工现场实际,建立水利水电工程施工现场安全评价指标体系。然后深入调查国内外水利水电工程施工现场安全评价现状,系统分析了当前国内外水利水电工程施工安全评价方法的优缺点及其差异性,提出了一种适用于水利水电工程施工现场的安全评价方法——DEMATEL-ANP方法。由于DEMATEL方法虽然能够计算各安全评价指标之间影响的强度,但是计算过程将各个安全评价指标权重视为相同,没有考虑到各安全评价指标之间权重有高低之分的情形,因此本文将DEMATEL方法与ANP方法结合,由DEMATEL方法确认各安全指标之间的影响强度,由ANP方法获得各安全指标的权重,通过建立基于DEMATEL-ANP方法的水利水电工程施工现场安全评价模型,得到的混合权重进行排序,找出其对应安全评价指标的排序,为施工企业安全管理提供分析依据。
Along with the rapid development of our national economy, China's hydropower engineering construction industry is also in rapid development, from confusion to adaption, from spontaneous to productive, the performance is very considerable. But looking at the total conditions of our country's hydropower engineering construction industry, it is known that the proportion of various fatal and injury accidents caused by hydropower engineering construction is still high. Superficially, these casualty accidents are mostly caused by the people’s illegal behavior, but investigating its deep reason, we will find that most of the accidents exist some of the defects and hidden dangers of accidents in safety management. Therefore, how to improve the water conservancy and hydropower engineering construction safety management level is the current hydropower engineering construction enterprise’s primary and urgent task.
The characteristics of the construction site in our hydropower engineering are studied in first in this dissertation. According to the water conservancy and hydropower engineering construction safety technology and related laws and regulations, standards, and other documents, and combined with expertise and practical conditions in the current hydropower engineering construction industry, the hydropower engineering construction site safety evaluation index system is established. And then the safety evaluation actualities are investigated in deep both at home and abroad, and the advantages and disadvantages and the discrepancies of the current safety evaluation methods are analyzed systematically, and a safety assessment method: DEMATEL-ANP method suitable for hydropower engineering construction site is put forward. Although DEMATEL method could calculate the degree of influences between the safety evaluation indexes, the weight of all the safety evaluation indexes are seen as the same during the process of computation. Therefore, combining DEMATEL method and ANP method, this paper confirms the degree of influences between the safety evaluation indexes by DEMATEL method and obtains the weight of the safety evaluation indexes by ANP method, and establishes the hydropower engineering construction site safety evaluation model with DEMATEL and ANP. And then the sorting of mixed weight is got, which provides analysis basis for the construction enterprise’safety management.
引文
[1]刘文诺.浅议水电工程施工安全管理.安全与健康, 2005, 23(41):41-42.
[2]国家安全生产监督管理局.安全评价通则.林业劳动安全, 2003, 16(2):47-48.
[3]张乃禄,刘灿.安全评价技术.西安:西安电子科技大学出版社, 2007.40-50.
[4] Roozbeh Kangari, Leland S. Riggs. Construction risk assessment by linguistics. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 1989, 36(2):126-131.
[5]国家安全生产监督管理总局.安全评价.第3版.北京:煤炭工业出版社, 2005. 108-119.
[6]周剑岚,刘先荣,龚声宇.基于LEC和ANP的水电建设工程施工危险源评价方法.施工技术, 2007, 36(12):388-392.
[7]柴修伟.水下钻孔爆破施工过程事故的安全评价: [硕士学位论文].武汉.武汉理工大学图书馆. 2005.
[8] Guo Jianbin, Wen Yuanchang, Xiao Jian. Safety evaluation research of hydraulic steel gate based on BP-neural network. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 2009, 23(3):41-43.
[9] Xiaowei Zhang, Xuefeng Yu, Kui Yu. Application of the Multi-level Fuzzy Decision-making Method in the Social Evaluation of Hydraulic Engineering Construction Project . Third International Workshop on Advanced Computational Intelligence, 2010. 213-217.
[10]王小兵,陈永青.检查表法在安全评价中的应用.中国卫生工程学. 2006, 5(6):358-360.
[11]韩其俊.安全检查表法在安全评价中的应用及改进.石油化工安全技术. 2003, 19(4):13-16.
[12]程杰.建筑安装工程施工安全风险评价与管理.现代管理科学, 2002, (9):42-43.
[13]郑艳琼,王忠波,王冰.火灾安全评价方法研究.武警学院学报. 2007,23(2):43-43.
[14]陈萌.谈安全评价及其方法.工业安全与防尘, 1999, (6):46-48.
[15]何咏玲.系统安全分析-HAZOP方法的应用及扩展.安全, 1994, 15(06):4-4.
[16]索丰平,王苏芳.事故树分析应用研究.山西建筑, 2007, 33(20):214-215.
[17]王健,林文剑.谈事故树分析法在建筑施工安全评价中的作用.山西建筑. 2008, 33(17):11-12.
[18]郜玲,周永久.事件树分析方法的应用.兵工安全技术, 1996, (6):39-40.
[19]郑荣跃,简小生,愈凯磊等.基于事件树分析法的大跨斜拉桥施工事故分析.工程力学, 2008, 25(1): 203-208.
[20]杨珺珺.事件树分析法评估建筑物地震灾害风险.自然灾害学报. 2008, 17(4):147-151.
[21]林文剑.安全评价方法在建筑施工中的应用: [硕士学位论文].重庆:重庆大学图书馆, 2007.
[22]袁大祥,严四海.论动态安全评价.中国安全科学学报. 2003, 13(5):38-41.
[23] A·库尔曼(德).安全科学导论: [博士学位论文].北京:中国地质大学出版社, 1991.
[24] Kenneth J Graham, Gilbert F Kinney. Explosive Shocks in Air . 2nd edition. The Journal of the Acoustical Society of America, 1986, 80(2):708-708.
[25]段红林.对LEC法应用的探讨.铁道劳动安全卫生与环保, 2009, 36(4):194-196.
[26] T.L.Saaty. The Analytic Hierarchy Process: [PhD thesis]. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1980.
[27]朱建军.层次分析法的若干问题研究及应用: [博士学位论文].沈阳:东北大学图书馆, 2005.
[28] Gabus A, Fontela E. World problems, an invitation to further thought within the framework of DEMATEL. Switzerland Geneva: Battelle Geneva Research Centre, 1973, (19):5-57.
[29] Gabus A, Fontela E. Perceptions of the World problematique: Communicationprocedure, communicating with those bearing collective responsibility. Switzerland Geneva: Battelle Geneva Research Centre, 1974, (7):14–15.
[30] Chiu Y.J, Chen H.C, Tzeng G.H. Marketing strategy based on customer behavior for the LCD-TV . International Journal of Management and Decision Making, 2006 (2):143–165.
[31] Hori S, Shimizu Y. Designing methods of human interface for supervisory control systems . Control Engineering Practice, 1999 (3): 1413–1419.
[32] Tzeng G.H, Chiang C.H, Li C.W. Evaluating intertwined effects in e-learning programs: a novel hybrid MCDM model based on factor analysis and DEMATEL . Expert Systems with Applications, 2007, (32):1028–1044.
[33] Saaty T.L. Decision making with dependence and feedback: The analytic network process . RWS Publications, Pittsburgh, USA, 2001:84-136.
[34] Jing-Rung Yu, Sheu-Ji Cheng. An integrated approach for deriving priorities in analytic network process . European Journal of Operational Research, 2007 (180):1427-1432.
[35]刘睿,余建星,孙宏才等.基于ANP的超级决策软件介绍及其应用.系统工程理论与实践, 2003, (8):141-143.
[36]胡雪琴.企业问题复杂度之探讨及量化研究—以DEMATE为分析工具: [硕士学位论文].台湾:中原大学图书馆, 2003.
[37]林宗明.管理问题因果复杂度分析模式建立之研究─以DEMATEL为方法论: [硕士学位论文].台湾:中原大学图书馆, 2005.
[38] Shouming Chen, Jie Li. Assessing the Architectural Design Services by Using DEMATEL Approach. Computational Intelligence and Natural Computing, 2009, (2):463-463.
[39] Fang C H, Cheng Y S, Chen G L. Application of DEMATEL in discussion of key competency of talents in manufacturing industries. Management of Innovation and Technology, 2008, (9) 249-249.
[40] Hiroyuki Tamura, Katsuhiro Akazawa. Structural modeling and systems analysis of uneasy factors for realizing safe, secure and reliable society. Journal of Telecommunications and Information Technology, 2005, (3):64-72.
[41]纪岱玲,林我聪.供应商绩效评估研究—结合ANP及DEMATEL之应用.中原大学学报, 2008, 20(1):37-39.
[42]付元初.水利水电工程施工伤亡事故案例与分析(第二集).北京:中国建筑工业出版社, 2001.
[43]董秋实.建筑施工现场安全评价体系的研究: [硕士学位论文].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学图书馆, 2009.
[44]左海坤.浅谈建筑施工现场的安全管理.建筑安全, 2005, (9):26-28.
[2]国家安全生产监督管理局.安全评价通则.林业劳动安全, 2003, 16(2):47-48.
[3]张乃禄,刘灿.安全评价技术.西安:西安电子科技大学出版社, 2007.40-50.
[4] Roozbeh Kangari, Leland S. Riggs. Construction risk assessment by linguistics. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 1989, 36(2):126-131.
[5]国家安全生产监督管理总局.安全评价.第3版.北京:煤炭工业出版社, 2005. 108-119.
[6]周剑岚,刘先荣,龚声宇.基于LEC和ANP的水电建设工程施工危险源评价方法.施工技术, 2007, 36(12):388-392.
[7]柴修伟.水下钻孔爆破施工过程事故的安全评价: [硕士学位论文].武汉.武汉理工大学图书馆. 2005.
[8] Guo Jianbin, Wen Yuanchang, Xiao Jian. Safety evaluation research of hydraulic steel gate based on BP-neural network. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 2009, 23(3):41-43.
[9] Xiaowei Zhang, Xuefeng Yu, Kui Yu. Application of the Multi-level Fuzzy Decision-making Method in the Social Evaluation of Hydraulic Engineering Construction Project . Third International Workshop on Advanced Computational Intelligence, 2010. 213-217.
[10]王小兵,陈永青.检查表法在安全评价中的应用.中国卫生工程学. 2006, 5(6):358-360.
[11]韩其俊.安全检查表法在安全评价中的应用及改进.石油化工安全技术. 2003, 19(4):13-16.
[12]程杰.建筑安装工程施工安全风险评价与管理.现代管理科学, 2002, (9):42-43.
[13]郑艳琼,王忠波,王冰.火灾安全评价方法研究.武警学院学报. 2007,23(2):43-43.
[14]陈萌.谈安全评价及其方法.工业安全与防尘, 1999, (6):46-48.
[15]何咏玲.系统安全分析-HAZOP方法的应用及扩展.安全, 1994, 15(06):4-4.
[16]索丰平,王苏芳.事故树分析应用研究.山西建筑, 2007, 33(20):214-215.
[17]王健,林文剑.谈事故树分析法在建筑施工安全评价中的作用.山西建筑. 2008, 33(17):11-12.
[18]郜玲,周永久.事件树分析方法的应用.兵工安全技术, 1996, (6):39-40.
[19]郑荣跃,简小生,愈凯磊等.基于事件树分析法的大跨斜拉桥施工事故分析.工程力学, 2008, 25(1): 203-208.
[20]杨珺珺.事件树分析法评估建筑物地震灾害风险.自然灾害学报. 2008, 17(4):147-151.
[21]林文剑.安全评价方法在建筑施工中的应用: [硕士学位论文].重庆:重庆大学图书馆, 2007.
[22]袁大祥,严四海.论动态安全评价.中国安全科学学报. 2003, 13(5):38-41.
[23] A·库尔曼(德).安全科学导论: [博士学位论文].北京:中国地质大学出版社, 1991.
[24] Kenneth J Graham, Gilbert F Kinney. Explosive Shocks in Air . 2nd edition. The Journal of the Acoustical Society of America, 1986, 80(2):708-708.
[25]段红林.对LEC法应用的探讨.铁道劳动安全卫生与环保, 2009, 36(4):194-196.
[26] T.L.Saaty. The Analytic Hierarchy Process: [PhD thesis]. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1980.
[27]朱建军.层次分析法的若干问题研究及应用: [博士学位论文].沈阳:东北大学图书馆, 2005.
[28] Gabus A, Fontela E. World problems, an invitation to further thought within the framework of DEMATEL. Switzerland Geneva: Battelle Geneva Research Centre, 1973, (19):5-57.
[29] Gabus A, Fontela E. Perceptions of the World problematique: Communicationprocedure, communicating with those bearing collective responsibility. Switzerland Geneva: Battelle Geneva Research Centre, 1974, (7):14–15.
[30] Chiu Y.J, Chen H.C, Tzeng G.H. Marketing strategy based on customer behavior for the LCD-TV . International Journal of Management and Decision Making, 2006 (2):143–165.
[31] Hori S, Shimizu Y. Designing methods of human interface for supervisory control systems . Control Engineering Practice, 1999 (3): 1413–1419.
[32] Tzeng G.H, Chiang C.H, Li C.W. Evaluating intertwined effects in e-learning programs: a novel hybrid MCDM model based on factor analysis and DEMATEL . Expert Systems with Applications, 2007, (32):1028–1044.
[33] Saaty T.L. Decision making with dependence and feedback: The analytic network process . RWS Publications, Pittsburgh, USA, 2001:84-136.
[34] Jing-Rung Yu, Sheu-Ji Cheng. An integrated approach for deriving priorities in analytic network process . European Journal of Operational Research, 2007 (180):1427-1432.
[35]刘睿,余建星,孙宏才等.基于ANP的超级决策软件介绍及其应用.系统工程理论与实践, 2003, (8):141-143.
[36]胡雪琴.企业问题复杂度之探讨及量化研究—以DEMATE为分析工具: [硕士学位论文].台湾:中原大学图书馆, 2003.
[37]林宗明.管理问题因果复杂度分析模式建立之研究─以DEMATEL为方法论: [硕士学位论文].台湾:中原大学图书馆, 2005.
[38] Shouming Chen, Jie Li. Assessing the Architectural Design Services by Using DEMATEL Approach. Computational Intelligence and Natural Computing, 2009, (2):463-463.
[39] Fang C H, Cheng Y S, Chen G L. Application of DEMATEL in discussion of key competency of talents in manufacturing industries. Management of Innovation and Technology, 2008, (9) 249-249.
[40] Hiroyuki Tamura, Katsuhiro Akazawa. Structural modeling and systems analysis of uneasy factors for realizing safe, secure and reliable society. Journal of Telecommunications and Information Technology, 2005, (3):64-72.
[41]纪岱玲,林我聪.供应商绩效评估研究—结合ANP及DEMATEL之应用.中原大学学报, 2008, 20(1):37-39.
[42]付元初.水利水电工程施工伤亡事故案例与分析(第二集).北京:中国建筑工业出版社, 2001.
[43]董秋实.建筑施工现场安全评价体系的研究: [硕士学位论文].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学图书馆, 2009.
[44]左海坤.浅谈建筑施工现场的安全管理.建筑安全, 2005, (9):26-28.