水下钻孔爆破施工过程事故的安全评价
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摘要
近年来,在疏通航道、开挖运河、兴建港口以及修筑堤坝工程中,水下钻孔爆破技术越来越显示出无可比拟的优势。欧美的海洋工程开发速度之所以如此迅速,水下钻孔爆破起来很大的作用。但在水下钻孔工程中,由于潮汐、涌浪、水流、水文、地质地形等复杂的施工环境,施工难度比陆地有很大的差别,事故发生的不确定性也比陆地更大,安全管理也就显得尤为重要。另外,“安全爆破”已成为爆破工程行业在新世纪的发展方向和面临的新课题。“安全第一,预防为主”是我国安全生产的方针。安全是进行一切工程爆破的重要前提,而科学、全面的安全评估工作是做到爆破安全的重要手段。
上海国际航运中心洋山深水港区一期航道炸礁工程工程量大,工期较长,要求高,施工环境复杂。本课题针对水下钻孔爆破自升式作业平台上整个施工过程中可能导致事故发生的潜在危险、危害因素进行系统地分析,并建立其模糊综合评价模型。从作业平台的移入定位,钻孔,装药,联线到最后平台移出,对每个施工阶段进行全面的危险源辨识。将整个施工过程中可能导致事故发生的各种潜在危险、危害因素分为技术设计、施工现场、监督管理、客观条件四个方面进行分析,并运用定性和定量相结合的因果分析图和层次分析法,用计算的结构重要度系数建造层次重要度因果分析图,以便针对各层次影响因素制定切实可行的预防措施。
以AHP-Fuzzy安全综合评价理论为基础,充分考虑工程实践的特点,选取合理的模糊综合算子,对水下钻孔爆破施工工艺流程中可能导致事故发生的危险、危害因素进行评价。以层次重要度因果分析图各层次因素的结构重要度为模糊综合评价中各因素的权重,再结合科学、客观、合理的专家打分确定评判矩阵,对具体工程施工工艺过程进行模糊综合评价计算,得出该工程项目的实际安全等级。
定性和定量相结合的因果分析和层次分析法的综合运用,以及层次分析和模糊综合评价相结合的AHP-Fuzzy,既充分体现综合评价的模糊性,又能给人以层次分析的精确性,具有前后的一致性,是一种很好的综合分析方法。今后加以完善,可以推广到其它领域中应用。
In recent years, the underwater hole blasting more and more shows the unexampled predominance in the channel dredging, the canal excavating, the port, the dykes and dams building projects, which is the primary cause of the fast development in ocean engineering of America and Europe. However, in the under water hole blasting project, because of such complicated construction environment as the tide, the wave, the current, the hydrology, the geological topography, etc. the degree of difficulty of construction has very great differences more than the land, the uncertainty happening of the fault is more than the land too and the safety management seems particularly important too. In addition, "safe blasting" has become the developing direction and new subject of blasting engineer in the new century. "Safety first, Prevention primary" is a policy of the safety production in our country. Safe is the important prerequisite in all blasting engineer, science and overall security assessment is the important means to accomplish it.The Yangshan harbor rock reef project of the Shanghai International Shipping Centre Yangshan deep water harbor is big, the time limit for a project is longer, requests high, the construction environment is complex. In this paper, the potential hazard which may result in fault during the whole construct of auto-uprising flat in underwater hole blasting will be analyzed systemically and establishing the fuzzy comprehensive assessment model. Hazards that probably happen in per phase construct are distinguished, which from localization, drilling, charging, wiring to the flat last moving out. The overall potential hazard is divided into four aspect and analyzed systematically such as technical design, construction site, supervise management and objective condition, and using cause and effect analysis chart and analytical process combining the determine nature and ration. The hierarchy important degree of cause and effect analysis chart is built by the calculate data, which can make the feasible precautionary measures to per hierarchy influence factor conveniently.Based on the AHP-Fuzzy safety comprehensive appraisal theory, fully
considered the characteristic of the project and chose the rational fuzzy comprehensive operator, the potential hazard which may result in fault during the whole construct in underwater hole blasting will be appraised. By the judge matrix confirmed by scientific, objective and reasonable marks given by the expert, and combining the relative weights of safety assessment gained, through fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, the real safety grade of this project is drawn.Originally in the article, the comprehensive application of the cause and effect analysis and analytic hierarchy process, and AHP-Fuzzy combining with hierarchy analysis and fuzzy comprehensive appraisal, can fully reflected comprehensive appraisal are fuzzy, it is a kind of very good comprehensive analytical method. Perfected in the future, it can be popularized to the other fields' application.
上海国际航运中心洋山深水港区一期航道炸礁工程工程量大,工期较长,要求高,施工环境复杂。本课题针对水下钻孔爆破自升式作业平台上整个施工过程中可能导致事故发生的潜在危险、危害因素进行系统地分析,并建立其模糊综合评价模型。从作业平台的移入定位,钻孔,装药,联线到最后平台移出,对每个施工阶段进行全面的危险源辨识。将整个施工过程中可能导致事故发生的各种潜在危险、危害因素分为技术设计、施工现场、监督管理、客观条件四个方面进行分析,并运用定性和定量相结合的因果分析图和层次分析法,用计算的结构重要度系数建造层次重要度因果分析图,以便针对各层次影响因素制定切实可行的预防措施。
以AHP-Fuzzy安全综合评价理论为基础,充分考虑工程实践的特点,选取合理的模糊综合算子,对水下钻孔爆破施工工艺流程中可能导致事故发生的危险、危害因素进行评价。以层次重要度因果分析图各层次因素的结构重要度为模糊综合评价中各因素的权重,再结合科学、客观、合理的专家打分确定评判矩阵,对具体工程施工工艺过程进行模糊综合评价计算,得出该工程项目的实际安全等级。
定性和定量相结合的因果分析和层次分析法的综合运用,以及层次分析和模糊综合评价相结合的AHP-Fuzzy,既充分体现综合评价的模糊性,又能给人以层次分析的精确性,具有前后的一致性,是一种很好的综合分析方法。今后加以完善,可以推广到其它领域中应用。
In recent years, the underwater hole blasting more and more shows the unexampled predominance in the channel dredging, the canal excavating, the port, the dykes and dams building projects, which is the primary cause of the fast development in ocean engineering of America and Europe. However, in the under water hole blasting project, because of such complicated construction environment as the tide, the wave, the current, the hydrology, the geological topography, etc. the degree of difficulty of construction has very great differences more than the land, the uncertainty happening of the fault is more than the land too and the safety management seems particularly important too. In addition, "safe blasting" has become the developing direction and new subject of blasting engineer in the new century. "Safety first, Prevention primary" is a policy of the safety production in our country. Safe is the important prerequisite in all blasting engineer, science and overall security assessment is the important means to accomplish it.The Yangshan harbor rock reef project of the Shanghai International Shipping Centre Yangshan deep water harbor is big, the time limit for a project is longer, requests high, the construction environment is complex. In this paper, the potential hazard which may result in fault during the whole construct of auto-uprising flat in underwater hole blasting will be analyzed systemically and establishing the fuzzy comprehensive assessment model. Hazards that probably happen in per phase construct are distinguished, which from localization, drilling, charging, wiring to the flat last moving out. The overall potential hazard is divided into four aspect and analyzed systematically such as technical design, construction site, supervise management and objective condition, and using cause and effect analysis chart and analytical process combining the determine nature and ration. The hierarchy important degree of cause and effect analysis chart is built by the calculate data, which can make the feasible precautionary measures to per hierarchy influence factor conveniently.Based on the AHP-Fuzzy safety comprehensive appraisal theory, fully
considered the characteristic of the project and chose the rational fuzzy comprehensive operator, the potential hazard which may result in fault during the whole construct in underwater hole blasting will be appraised. By the judge matrix confirmed by scientific, objective and reasonable marks given by the expert, and combining the relative weights of safety assessment gained, through fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, the real safety grade of this project is drawn.Originally in the article, the comprehensive application of the cause and effect analysis and analytic hierarchy process, and AHP-Fuzzy combining with hierarchy analysis and fuzzy comprehensive appraisal, can fully reflected comprehensive appraisal are fuzzy, it is a kind of very good comprehensive analytical method. Perfected in the future, it can be popularized to the other fields' application.
引文
[1] 吕中杰,林大泽.中国安全爆破工程面临的新课题冲国安全科学学报,2000.10(2):20～25
[2] 祝树枝,吴森康.近代爆破理论与实践.武汉:中国地质大学出版社,1993.66～66
[3] 中华人民共和国国家质量监督检查检疫总局.爆破安全规程(GB6722—2003).北京:中国标准出版社,2004。
[4] 梁军,赵勇.系统工程导论.北京:化学工业出版社,2005.
[5] 汪元辉.安全系统工程.天津:天津大学出版社,1999.
[6] 田思进,宋璆.安全系统工程十年应用的回顾与总结.建筑安全,1994(7):36～38.
[7] 左东红,贡凯青.安全系统工程.北京:化学工业出版社,2004.
[8] 张君刚,张琪.大峡水电站混凝土防渗墙施工中漂石、孤石的处理.水力发电,1997(2):50～51
[9] 陆平,杨明,许长安.东苕溪横山石方段工程水下爆破施工技术.浙江水利科技,2003(5):59～61
[10] 吴绪权,刘临雄.红水河桥梁角滩航道整治水下爆破工程.广西交通科技,2003(5):103～105
[11] 柳晗,丁华.拦门礁水下钻孔爆破设计与施工.爆破,2003(2):70～71
[12] 谢炳龙.钦州中山码头水下礁石爆破.广西地质,2000(1):53～60
[13] 刘松林,王勇.三峡二期下游围堰水下岩石控制爆破.工程建设,2003(10):26～27
[14] 齐世福,李尚海,胡良孝.凇花江旧铁路大桥桥墩的水下爆破拆除.工程爆破,2004(1):26～29
[15] 刘旭,邓树飞,倪荣福,等田湾核电站近海岸水下爆破开挖码头槽.工程爆破,2001(3):56～59
[16] 庙延钢,张智宇,栾龙发,等.特种爆破技术.北京:冶金工业出版社,2004.
[17] 王玉杰.爆破安全技术.北京:冶金工业出版社,2005.
[18] 何学秋,等.安全工程学.徐州:中国矿业大学出版社,2000.
[19] 国家安全生产监督管理总局.安全评价(上、下).北京:煤炭工业出版社,2005.
[20] 吴宗之,高进东,魏利军.危险评价方法及其应用.北京:冶金工业出版社,2001.
[21] 李发荣.预先危险分析在安全评价中的应用研究.劳动保护科学技术,1999.19(5):56～60
[22] 罗云,樊运晓,马晓春.风险分析与安全评价.北京:化学工业出版社,2004.128～132
[23] 高进东,冯长根,吴宗之.危险辨识方法的研究.中国安全科学学报,2001.11(4):57～60
[24] 宋富国,赵瑞玺.爆破事故分析和安全技术措施.露天采煤技术,2001(1):57～59
[25] 张力,王以群.人因分析:需要、问题和发展趋势.系统工程理论与实践,2001(1):13～19
[26] 蒋军成.事故调查与分析技术.北京:化学工业出版社,2004.
[27] 高欣宝,麻全仕.水下爆破的安全管理与防护.知识论坛,1996.7～11
[28] 林学圣,林吉元,王自力.工程爆破的安全问题.工程爆破,1996.2(2):63～68
[29] Udo, G G. Using analytic hierarchy process to analyze the information technology outsourcing decision. Industrial Management and Data Systems; 100 (8 and 9) 2000, p. 421～9
[30] 沙红兵,谢君,谭跃进.因果分析与系统安全性风险评价方法.中国安全科学学报,1998(6):74～78
[31] 杨鉴淞,罗俊.层次分析法在因果图中的应用研究.焦作矿业学院学报,1995(3):104～110
[32] 郑重敬,赵永生.层次重要度因果分析图的建立与应用.山西煤炭,1995(4):16～19
[33] Hermans, F. Underwater blasting in Belgium. Journal of Explosives Engineering, v 21, n 4, July/August, 2004, P6～17
[34] Carpaneto, Roberto. Underwater blasting operations in the proximity of existing structures: an approach to safety assessment. Proceedings of the International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering-OMAE, OMAE98-0335, 1998, 4pp
[35] 王玉杰,黄平路.土岩爆破作业安全评价与事故分析.安全与环境工程,2004.11(1):95～97
[36] Kneale, James B. Application of expert system techniques to fault tree diagnostic data. AUTOTESTCON '97. Proceedings of the System Readiness Technology Conference, Anaheim, CA, Sept. 22-25, 1997 (A98-33403 08-62), Piscataway, NJ, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc, 1997. p. 100～104
[37] Krasich, Milena. Use of Fault Tree Analysis for evaluation of system-reliability improvements in design phase. 2000 Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium, Los Angeles, CA, Jan. 24-27, 2000, Proceedings (A00-25843 06-38), Piscataway, NJ, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc., 2000, P. 1～7
[38] M. L. Ang. E. Grindon, L. M. C. Dutton. A risk-based evaluation of the impact of key uncertainties on the prediction of severe accident source terms—STU. Nuclear engineering and design. 2001. 209: 183～192
[39] S. Carol, J. A. Vilchez. A new approach to the estimation of the probable number of fatalities in accidental explosions. Safety Science.2001.39 (3): 205～217
[40] R. Quintana, M. Career. Application of a predictive safety model in a combustion testing environment. Safety Science.2001.38(3): 183～209
[41] Ewing, D J F, Campbell, J F.Tolerability of risk, safety assessment principles and their implications for probabilistic safety analysis. Nuclear Energy, 1994, 33 (2): 85～92
[42] 谢季坚,刘承平.模糊数学方法及其应用.武汉:华中理工出版社,2000.190～254
[43] 黄平路.中深孔爆破安全评价方法的研究[D]:[硕士学位论文].武汉:武汉理工大学,资源与环境工程学院,2004
[44] 李新建.拆除爆破危险控制及其安全评价体系的研究[D]:[硕士学位论文].武汉:武汉理工大学,资源与环境工程学院,2004
[2] 祝树枝,吴森康.近代爆破理论与实践.武汉:中国地质大学出版社,1993.66～66
[3] 中华人民共和国国家质量监督检查检疫总局.爆破安全规程(GB6722—2003).北京:中国标准出版社,2004。
[4] 梁军,赵勇.系统工程导论.北京:化学工业出版社,2005.
[5] 汪元辉.安全系统工程.天津:天津大学出版社,1999.
[6] 田思进,宋璆.安全系统工程十年应用的回顾与总结.建筑安全,1994(7):36～38.
[7] 左东红,贡凯青.安全系统工程.北京:化学工业出版社,2004.
[8] 张君刚,张琪.大峡水电站混凝土防渗墙施工中漂石、孤石的处理.水力发电,1997(2):50～51
[9] 陆平,杨明,许长安.东苕溪横山石方段工程水下爆破施工技术.浙江水利科技,2003(5):59～61
[10] 吴绪权,刘临雄.红水河桥梁角滩航道整治水下爆破工程.广西交通科技,2003(5):103～105
[11] 柳晗,丁华.拦门礁水下钻孔爆破设计与施工.爆破,2003(2):70～71
[12] 谢炳龙.钦州中山码头水下礁石爆破.广西地质,2000(1):53～60
[13] 刘松林,王勇.三峡二期下游围堰水下岩石控制爆破.工程建设,2003(10):26～27
[14] 齐世福,李尚海,胡良孝.凇花江旧铁路大桥桥墩的水下爆破拆除.工程爆破,2004(1):26～29
[15] 刘旭,邓树飞,倪荣福,等田湾核电站近海岸水下爆破开挖码头槽.工程爆破,2001(3):56～59
[16] 庙延钢,张智宇,栾龙发,等.特种爆破技术.北京:冶金工业出版社,2004.
[17] 王玉杰.爆破安全技术.北京:冶金工业出版社,2005.
[18] 何学秋,等.安全工程学.徐州:中国矿业大学出版社,2000.
[19] 国家安全生产监督管理总局.安全评价(上、下).北京:煤炭工业出版社,2005.
[20] 吴宗之,高进东,魏利军.危险评价方法及其应用.北京:冶金工业出版社,2001.
[21] 李发荣.预先危险分析在安全评价中的应用研究.劳动保护科学技术,1999.19(5):56～60
[22] 罗云,樊运晓,马晓春.风险分析与安全评价.北京:化学工业出版社,2004.128～132
[23] 高进东,冯长根,吴宗之.危险辨识方法的研究.中国安全科学学报,2001.11(4):57～60
[24] 宋富国,赵瑞玺.爆破事故分析和安全技术措施.露天采煤技术,2001(1):57～59
[25] 张力,王以群.人因分析:需要、问题和发展趋势.系统工程理论与实践,2001(1):13～19
[26] 蒋军成.事故调查与分析技术.北京:化学工业出版社,2004.
[27] 高欣宝,麻全仕.水下爆破的安全管理与防护.知识论坛,1996.7～11
[28] 林学圣,林吉元,王自力.工程爆破的安全问题.工程爆破,1996.2(2):63～68
[29] Udo, G G. Using analytic hierarchy process to analyze the information technology outsourcing decision. Industrial Management and Data Systems; 100 (8 and 9) 2000, p. 421～9
[30] 沙红兵,谢君,谭跃进.因果分析与系统安全性风险评价方法.中国安全科学学报,1998(6):74～78
[31] 杨鉴淞,罗俊.层次分析法在因果图中的应用研究.焦作矿业学院学报,1995(3):104～110
[32] 郑重敬,赵永生.层次重要度因果分析图的建立与应用.山西煤炭,1995(4):16～19
[33] Hermans, F. Underwater blasting in Belgium. Journal of Explosives Engineering, v 21, n 4, July/August, 2004, P6～17
[34] Carpaneto, Roberto. Underwater blasting operations in the proximity of existing structures: an approach to safety assessment. Proceedings of the International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering-OMAE, OMAE98-0335, 1998, 4pp
[35] 王玉杰,黄平路.土岩爆破作业安全评价与事故分析.安全与环境工程,2004.11(1):95～97
[36] Kneale, James B. Application of expert system techniques to fault tree diagnostic data. AUTOTESTCON '97. Proceedings of the System Readiness Technology Conference, Anaheim, CA, Sept. 22-25, 1997 (A98-33403 08-62), Piscataway, NJ, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc, 1997. p. 100～104
[37] Krasich, Milena. Use of Fault Tree Analysis for evaluation of system-reliability improvements in design phase. 2000 Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium, Los Angeles, CA, Jan. 24-27, 2000, Proceedings (A00-25843 06-38), Piscataway, NJ, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc., 2000, P. 1～7
[38] M. L. Ang. E. Grindon, L. M. C. Dutton. A risk-based evaluation of the impact of key uncertainties on the prediction of severe accident source terms—STU. Nuclear engineering and design. 2001. 209: 183～192
[39] S. Carol, J. A. Vilchez. A new approach to the estimation of the probable number of fatalities in accidental explosions. Safety Science.2001.39 (3): 205～217
[40] R. Quintana, M. Career. Application of a predictive safety model in a combustion testing environment. Safety Science.2001.38(3): 183～209
[41] Ewing, D J F, Campbell, J F.Tolerability of risk, safety assessment principles and their implications for probabilistic safety analysis. Nuclear Energy, 1994, 33 (2): 85～92
[42] 谢季坚,刘承平.模糊数学方法及其应用.武汉:华中理工出版社,2000.190～254
[43] 黄平路.中深孔爆破安全评价方法的研究[D]:[硕士学位论文].武汉:武汉理工大学,资源与环境工程学院,2004
[44] 李新建.拆除爆破危险控制及其安全评价体系的研究[D]:[硕士学位论文].武汉:武汉理工大学,资源与环境工程学院,2004