基于模型与GIS的水稻生产力预测预警技术研究
摘要
粮食安全是关系国计民生的重大问题。面对未来人口刚性增长、耕地面积不断减少及人均消费水平稳步提高的严峻形势,准确预测和评估我国粮食生产能力及发展趋势、建立粮食生产安全预警系统对保障我国粮食安全、促进农业可持续发展具有重要意义。作物生长模型可为预测粮食产量和评估环境变化影响等提供有力的定量化工具。水稻是我国第一大粮食作物,其安全生产对确保国家粮食安全、经济发展和人民生活具有举足轻重的地位。本研究以水稻为研究对象,在本实验室已有水稻生长模型RiceGrow的基础上,耦合GIS技术,构建水稻生产力空间预测与评价系统,将基于站点的生长模型扩展到区域尺度应用,为探索水稻生产潜力、评估气候变化影响、制定农业生产对策等提供有效的定量化工具。
针对大多数生长模型局限于单点模拟的情况,探讨了生长模型在区域化应用中升尺度问题的解决技术与方法,进而构建了水稻生产力区域预测模型(Regional-Rice Model).水稻生产力的区域模拟采用栅格为基本模拟单元,利用GIS中的空间插值、叠加、查询等技术,对模型所需的输入数据进行栅格化预处理,将对象地区划分成许多认为均质的栅格,每个栅格具有一套完整的RiceGrow运行所需的气象、土壤、管理、品种等输入数据,通过批量运行生长模型,每个栅格得到一组模拟输出结果,进而获得栅格形式的模拟结果空间分布图,或者对各栅格模拟值进行空间归并获得区域模拟结果。利用试验观测数据及生产统计资料分别在站点水平和区域水平上对生产力模型的模拟结果进行了校正与检验,结果表明模型具有较高的预测精度与较强的适用能力。
利用所构建的水稻生产力区域预测模型模拟了光温潜在、水分限制及氮素限制三种不同生产水平情景下中国南方稻区的水稻生产潜力,并分析了所假设的2020年、2030年与2050年三个阶段性气候变化情景对南方稻区水稻生育期和产量的影响,提出了几种适应性对策。结果表明：(1)南方稻区光温生产潜力在7485kg hm-2—15492kghm-2之间,水分限制的生产潜力比较接近光温水平,N素限制的生产力在5210kg hm-2—10360kg hm-2之间；光温生产潜力与N限制下生产力的差值即增产潜力大约在1910kg hm-2—7670kg hm-2之间,表明我国南方稻区具有较高的增产潜力。如果能使水稻单产达到光温生产潜力水平,在保持种植面积不变的情况下,则南方稻区水稻总产量可由1.98亿吨上升到3.36亿吨,增幅可达69.8%。(2)未来气候变暖,加速水稻发育,水稻生育期天数缩短。在不考虑CO2浓度增加直接施肥效应时,整个南方稻区无论单季稻还是双季稻,水稻产量均表现为减产,且随着时间推移,气候温度增幅的增加,减产幅度呈增大趋势；若加入CO2浓度增加的直接施肥作用可以缓解或抵消增温带来的负面影响,则南方稻区不同地区的水稻产量表现有增有减,但以减产为主,特别是华中双季稻与华南双季稻区减产严重。提出播期调整、选育耐热新品种、加大农田设施投入,充分利用气候变暖给南方稻区带来的更为丰富的热量资源,实现水稻“单改双”,改变种植布局,提高复种指数,是未来农业生产适应气候变化的有效措施。
进一步探讨了粮食安全预警的基本理论和方法,提出了基于生长模型与生产情景的粮食生产安全预警技术。该方法从粮食生产的角度出发,利用作物模型的产量预测功能,以生长模型代替现有粮食安全预警研究中基于黑箱或者灰色系统的粮食产量预测模型,选择了人均粮食占有量与粮食产量波动系数作为预警指标,并确定了相应的警限水平,从而为粮食安全预警提供了新的路径与尝试。从水稻生产角度对基于生长模型的粮食安全预警技术进行了实例分析,结果表明：假设未来水稻种植面积、南方水稻生产占全国水稻总产的权重以及水稻总产占粮食总产的比例保持不变,在2020年、2030年与2050年三个气候变化假设情景下,人均粮食占有量分别为392.8千克/人、376.5千克/人、356.9千克/人,对照人均粮食占有量的警限区间2020年与2030年为无警,2050年将处于轻警状态。总体上认为,只要积极采取应对措施,未来我国粮食安全生产的不利局面完全可以减轻或克服。
最后,采用构件化、模块化程序设计思想,利用组件的语言无关性、独立性、可重用性等特点,在Visual Studio.Net2005开发环境下,采用C#语言设计系统界面,以空间数据为纽带,有效耦合生长模型与GIS组件,并结合气候变化与适应性对策情景及粮食安全预警技术,构建了基于生长模型与GIS的水稻生产力预测预警系统,实现了不同品种类型、生态环境、空间尺度下光温水平、水分限制及氮素限制三个水平的水稻生产力模拟与分析,以及气候变化影响及适应性对策评估和粮食安全预警等复合功能,为分析水稻生产潜力、评估气候变化影响、辅助粮食安全预警以及制定农业政策等提供了数字化平台,并为构建其它作物的空间模拟预测和评价系统奠定了技术框架与开发模式。
针对大多数生长模型局限于单点模拟的情况,探讨了生长模型在区域化应用中升尺度问题的解决技术与方法,进而构建了水稻生产力区域预测模型(Regional-Rice Model).水稻生产力的区域模拟采用栅格为基本模拟单元,利用GIS中的空间插值、叠加、查询等技术,对模型所需的输入数据进行栅格化预处理,将对象地区划分成许多认为均质的栅格,每个栅格具有一套完整的RiceGrow运行所需的气象、土壤、管理、品种等输入数据,通过批量运行生长模型,每个栅格得到一组模拟输出结果,进而获得栅格形式的模拟结果空间分布图,或者对各栅格模拟值进行空间归并获得区域模拟结果。利用试验观测数据及生产统计资料分别在站点水平和区域水平上对生产力模型的模拟结果进行了校正与检验,结果表明模型具有较高的预测精度与较强的适用能力。
利用所构建的水稻生产力区域预测模型模拟了光温潜在、水分限制及氮素限制三种不同生产水平情景下中国南方稻区的水稻生产潜力,并分析了所假设的2020年、2030年与2050年三个阶段性气候变化情景对南方稻区水稻生育期和产量的影响,提出了几种适应性对策。结果表明：(1)南方稻区光温生产潜力在7485kg hm-2—15492kghm-2之间,水分限制的生产潜力比较接近光温水平,N素限制的生产力在5210kg hm-2—10360kg hm-2之间；光温生产潜力与N限制下生产力的差值即增产潜力大约在1910kg hm-2—7670kg hm-2之间,表明我国南方稻区具有较高的增产潜力。如果能使水稻单产达到光温生产潜力水平,在保持种植面积不变的情况下,则南方稻区水稻总产量可由1.98亿吨上升到3.36亿吨,增幅可达69.8%。(2)未来气候变暖,加速水稻发育,水稻生育期天数缩短。在不考虑CO2浓度增加直接施肥效应时,整个南方稻区无论单季稻还是双季稻,水稻产量均表现为减产,且随着时间推移,气候温度增幅的增加,减产幅度呈增大趋势；若加入CO2浓度增加的直接施肥作用可以缓解或抵消增温带来的负面影响,则南方稻区不同地区的水稻产量表现有增有减,但以减产为主,特别是华中双季稻与华南双季稻区减产严重。提出播期调整、选育耐热新品种、加大农田设施投入,充分利用气候变暖给南方稻区带来的更为丰富的热量资源,实现水稻“单改双”,改变种植布局,提高复种指数,是未来农业生产适应气候变化的有效措施。
进一步探讨了粮食安全预警的基本理论和方法,提出了基于生长模型与生产情景的粮食生产安全预警技术。该方法从粮食生产的角度出发,利用作物模型的产量预测功能,以生长模型代替现有粮食安全预警研究中基于黑箱或者灰色系统的粮食产量预测模型,选择了人均粮食占有量与粮食产量波动系数作为预警指标,并确定了相应的警限水平,从而为粮食安全预警提供了新的路径与尝试。从水稻生产角度对基于生长模型的粮食安全预警技术进行了实例分析,结果表明：假设未来水稻种植面积、南方水稻生产占全国水稻总产的权重以及水稻总产占粮食总产的比例保持不变,在2020年、2030年与2050年三个气候变化假设情景下,人均粮食占有量分别为392.8千克/人、376.5千克/人、356.9千克/人,对照人均粮食占有量的警限区间2020年与2030年为无警,2050年将处于轻警状态。总体上认为,只要积极采取应对措施,未来我国粮食安全生产的不利局面完全可以减轻或克服。
最后,采用构件化、模块化程序设计思想,利用组件的语言无关性、独立性、可重用性等特点,在Visual Studio.Net2005开发环境下,采用C#语言设计系统界面,以空间数据为纽带,有效耦合生长模型与GIS组件,并结合气候变化与适应性对策情景及粮食安全预警技术,构建了基于生长模型与GIS的水稻生产力预测预警系统,实现了不同品种类型、生态环境、空间尺度下光温水平、水分限制及氮素限制三个水平的水稻生产力模拟与分析,以及气候变化影响及适应性对策评估和粮食安全预警等复合功能,为分析水稻生产潜力、评估气候变化影响、辅助粮食安全预警以及制定农业政策等提供了数字化平台,并为构建其它作物的空间模拟预测和评价系统奠定了技术框架与开发模式。
引文
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