我国贸易结构变化对经济增长影响的实证分析
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摘要
自亚当斯密提出劳动分工理论以来,贸易对经济增长影响有目共睹。其中有积极促进作用的,也有被普雷维什“中心-外围”论所揭示落入贫困化陷阱的情况；由此,我们不能笼统得出贸易开展一定能促进经济增长的结论。何种贸易结构能产生积极影响需要具体问题具体分析。一般而言,一国出口消费品、进口资本品的贸易结构有利于资本积累和技术进步,从而促进经济增长。由于发达国家经济增长主要靠技术创新为动力；因此,贸易带来资本积累、技术进步效用对发展中国家意义更重要。我国已成为世界贸易大国,考察贸易结构变化促进经济增长的影响机制对我国外贸结构调整有现实意义。
贸易理论主要解释一国开展贸易原因,而对贸易结构分析更多地隐含在贸易得益分析中,缺乏系统分析贸易结构影响经济增长的理论框架；因此,本文基于一般均衡分析理论,构建了贸易结构对经济增长影响机理的分析框架。从新古典经济增长理论入手,依据H-O-S理论分析了贸易结构带来资本积累机理；从内生经济增长理论入手,在新贸易理论框架下分析了贸易结构带来技术进步的机理和途径。以中国1982-2008年数据进行了实证检验；进而提出促进贸易结构调整的对策建议。
本文共分七章：
第一章阐述了本文选题背景和意义,研究思路、方法和技术路线,文章主要创新点和局限性。
第二章贸易与经济增长理论发展的文献综述,分别从经济增长的动力、国际贸易与经济增长、贸易结构与经济增长三个方面对贸易、贸易结构与经济增长理论进行了综述；并对国内关于贸易结构近期研究进行了介绍。
第三章贸易结构影响经济增长机理的分析框架,在新古典经济增长框架下对贸易结构带来资本积累机理进行了分析；通过构建小国模型和大国模型分析了贸易结构促进技术进步途径和机理。
第四章贸易结构变化特征分析,明显的阶段性、普遍性和特殊性构成了我国贸易结构基本特征。其阶段性与我国经济发展相联系；其普遍性表现为贸易结构处于升级压力和升级进程：特殊性表现为外资为主的加工贸易主导了我国外贸发展。
第五章贸易结构变化与经济增长格兰杰因果检验,通过建立VAR模型检验了贸易结构、以及其内部构成与经济增长的格兰杰非因果关系。
第六章贸易结构变化促进经济增长的实证分析,以理论分析为基础,分别对贸易结构变化带来资本积累、促进技术进步的机理进行了实证检验,并以我国从G7国家资本品进口为例进行了案例分析。
第七章结论和对策,依据前面实证分析结果提出了加快我国贸易结构升级的对策建议。
Since the theory of division of labor has been proposed by Adam Smith, the impact of trade on economic growth for all to see. Whether trade has a positive role in promoting economic growth, or it has been falling into the trap of poverty revealed by Prebisch "center-periphery" theorem, depends on particular circumstances. We could not talk about trade have a positive role in promoting one country's economy growth. What kind of trade structure gives a positive role in country's development is a specific issue need analyzed. In general, the trade structure of one country's export of consumer goods, import of capital goods is conducive to capital accumulation and technological progress, thereby promoting economic growth. Due to economic growth in developed countries mainly rely on technological innovation as the driving force; so, capital accumulation and technological progress to economic growth in developing countries is more important. China has become the world's largest exporting country recently, examining the relation between changes in trade structure and economic growth is significant.
As the trade theory gives the explanation for a country's foreign trade, and the analysis for trade structure implicit in the gains from trade; so the systematic analysis of theoretical framework on the relation between trade structure and economic growth is missing. Therefore, based on general equilibrium theory, this dissertation offers a mechanism for trade structure affecting economic growth. We analyze the mechanism of accumulating capital by trade structure, and the ways of promoting technological progress on the endogenous economic growth theory also. Forthmore, we make an empirical test on China's 1982-2008.
The dissertation is constructed as follows:Chapter 1 sums up the background and significance of this work, research ideas, methods and technical line, the article points, major innovations and limitations. Chapter 2 gives a survey on development of trade, trade structure and economic growth, and domestic studies on trade structure are intruduced. Chapter 3 builds the framework for affecting economic growth by trade structure. Theoretically, we first bring about the mechanism of capital accumulation by trade structure under the neo-classical economic growth; and then look into the ways and mechanisms of promoting technological progress through trade structure by constructing a small country model and the big country model separately.Chapter 4 gives a bird's view on China's trade structure in changing. The main characteristics of China's trade structure are consisted of phase, universal and particularity. The stages of trade structure are highly linked with the steps of China's adopting the "open door policy". The universality is revealed in the escalation of pressure for trade structure and under process; for the specificity of trade structure is dominated by foreign-based processing trade. Chapter 5 offers the empirical analysis on trade structural change and economic growth. By empirically testing in trade structure and economic growth, we find the evidence of the connection of trade structure, and its internal composition with economic growth. Chapter 6 provides the empirical analysis on the mechanism of accumulating capital and promoting technological progress by trade structure. At the end of this chapter, we give a case study on China's imports of capital goods from the G7 countries. By summarizing the findings in affecting China's economic growth through trade structure, some suggestion, including advices are concluded. Finally, for conclusion and enlightenments, we have Chapter 7.
贸易理论主要解释一国开展贸易原因,而对贸易结构分析更多地隐含在贸易得益分析中,缺乏系统分析贸易结构影响经济增长的理论框架；因此,本文基于一般均衡分析理论,构建了贸易结构对经济增长影响机理的分析框架。从新古典经济增长理论入手,依据H-O-S理论分析了贸易结构带来资本积累机理；从内生经济增长理论入手,在新贸易理论框架下分析了贸易结构带来技术进步的机理和途径。以中国1982-2008年数据进行了实证检验；进而提出促进贸易结构调整的对策建议。
本文共分七章：
第一章阐述了本文选题背景和意义,研究思路、方法和技术路线,文章主要创新点和局限性。
第二章贸易与经济增长理论发展的文献综述,分别从经济增长的动力、国际贸易与经济增长、贸易结构与经济增长三个方面对贸易、贸易结构与经济增长理论进行了综述；并对国内关于贸易结构近期研究进行了介绍。
第三章贸易结构影响经济增长机理的分析框架,在新古典经济增长框架下对贸易结构带来资本积累机理进行了分析；通过构建小国模型和大国模型分析了贸易结构促进技术进步途径和机理。
第四章贸易结构变化特征分析,明显的阶段性、普遍性和特殊性构成了我国贸易结构基本特征。其阶段性与我国经济发展相联系；其普遍性表现为贸易结构处于升级压力和升级进程：特殊性表现为外资为主的加工贸易主导了我国外贸发展。
第五章贸易结构变化与经济增长格兰杰因果检验,通过建立VAR模型检验了贸易结构、以及其内部构成与经济增长的格兰杰非因果关系。
第六章贸易结构变化促进经济增长的实证分析,以理论分析为基础,分别对贸易结构变化带来资本积累、促进技术进步的机理进行了实证检验,并以我国从G7国家资本品进口为例进行了案例分析。
第七章结论和对策,依据前面实证分析结果提出了加快我国贸易结构升级的对策建议。
Since the theory of division of labor has been proposed by Adam Smith, the impact of trade on economic growth for all to see. Whether trade has a positive role in promoting economic growth, or it has been falling into the trap of poverty revealed by Prebisch "center-periphery" theorem, depends on particular circumstances. We could not talk about trade have a positive role in promoting one country's economy growth. What kind of trade structure gives a positive role in country's development is a specific issue need analyzed. In general, the trade structure of one country's export of consumer goods, import of capital goods is conducive to capital accumulation and technological progress, thereby promoting economic growth. Due to economic growth in developed countries mainly rely on technological innovation as the driving force; so, capital accumulation and technological progress to economic growth in developing countries is more important. China has become the world's largest exporting country recently, examining the relation between changes in trade structure and economic growth is significant.
As the trade theory gives the explanation for a country's foreign trade, and the analysis for trade structure implicit in the gains from trade; so the systematic analysis of theoretical framework on the relation between trade structure and economic growth is missing. Therefore, based on general equilibrium theory, this dissertation offers a mechanism for trade structure affecting economic growth. We analyze the mechanism of accumulating capital by trade structure, and the ways of promoting technological progress on the endogenous economic growth theory also. Forthmore, we make an empirical test on China's 1982-2008.
The dissertation is constructed as follows:Chapter 1 sums up the background and significance of this work, research ideas, methods and technical line, the article points, major innovations and limitations. Chapter 2 gives a survey on development of trade, trade structure and economic growth, and domestic studies on trade structure are intruduced. Chapter 3 builds the framework for affecting economic growth by trade structure. Theoretically, we first bring about the mechanism of capital accumulation by trade structure under the neo-classical economic growth; and then look into the ways and mechanisms of promoting technological progress through trade structure by constructing a small country model and the big country model separately.Chapter 4 gives a bird's view on China's trade structure in changing. The main characteristics of China's trade structure are consisted of phase, universal and particularity. The stages of trade structure are highly linked with the steps of China's adopting the "open door policy". The universality is revealed in the escalation of pressure for trade structure and under process; for the specificity of trade structure is dominated by foreign-based processing trade. Chapter 5 offers the empirical analysis on trade structural change and economic growth. By empirically testing in trade structure and economic growth, we find the evidence of the connection of trade structure, and its internal composition with economic growth. Chapter 6 provides the empirical analysis on the mechanism of accumulating capital and promoting technological progress by trade structure. At the end of this chapter, we give a case study on China's imports of capital goods from the G7 countries. By summarizing the findings in affecting China's economic growth through trade structure, some suggestion, including advices are concluded. Finally, for conclusion and enlightenments, we have Chapter 7.
引文
①2009年人民币兑美元年均汇率中间价为6.8310。
②刘罡,从美、日闹剧看中国的结构改革之难[N].华尔街日报。http://cn.wsj.com/gb/20091209/hrd 114831.asp
①施炳展李坤望(2009)文章内容摘要。
②邵军和徐康宁(2009)文章内容摘要。
③[美]G..M.格罗斯曼等著,何帆牛勇平唐迪译,2003,《全球经济中的创新与增长》,中国人民大学出版社2003年第一版,P219.
①参见王永齐,对外贸易结构与中国经济增长：基于因果关系的检验[J],世界经济,2004(11)：31-39。
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