转型国家经济增长研究
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摘要
自上个世纪八十年代末九十年代初以来，转型国家政治、经济以及社会方面的改革和发展深受国际学术界和政策界的关注。本文主要对转型国家经济转型领域进行研究。转型国家经济增长及其决定因素的分析是本文的核心内容，独联体和中东欧国家则是本文研究的主要对象。论文最后也对中国经济转型和增长的若干问题进行了分析，不过研究局限于几个具体环节。
十多年来转型国家经济改革和发展方面的理论文献还是比较丰富的，但是在转型国家经济增长及其因素分析，尤其是实证研究方面还存在一些空白点。因此，本文以现代经济增长理论作为研究基石，从劳动力、投资、技术进步、金融贸易自由化以及制度因素等方面，对1990年到2003年转型国家的经济增长以及各要素的决定作用等问题进行深入地分析和研究。
从论文的章节安排来看：
第一，明确本文的研究对象、目的以及方法，在此基础上，就本文需要研究的基本问题及其理论和现实意义做出回答，进一步确立本文的结构安排并选择可行的研究方法，阐述本文研究的重要意义及其原创性所在。
第二，从现代经济增长理论入手，在阐述经济增长相关理论与历史溯源的同时，重点引入索洛经济增长模型。并根据本文研究转型国家经济增长问题的特殊性，对索洛增长模型进行理论修正和模型扩展。在此基础上，对转型国家经济增长及其决定因素进行总体性的实证计量分析。
第三，对转型国家金融发展、资本积累和贸易自由化进行考察和研究，具体分析转型时期金融和银行业的改革，投资、资本积累与金融自由化进程中的外资流动，以及以贸易增长、贸易开放和贸易平衡为主要内容的贸易自由化。
第四，分析劳动力市场发展和技术进步对经济增长的作用和影响问题，前一问题主要从劳动力增长、就业和失业问题、人力资本积累以及劳动力流动等方面展开；后一问题则主要考察转型国家技术创新、技术扩散和技术转移对经济增长的作用关系，论证技术进步是否显著促进经济增长。
第五，对转型国家经济制度的重建和加入世界贸易组织问题进行分析，在对转型时期经济制度和市场结构的改革做出总体性描述后，采用适当的变量指标体系，设计经济转型状态变量以及WTO变量，并从计量角度刻画这些具有显著政策性意义的变量与经济增长的关系。
第六，就中国经济转型时期与经济增长相关的一些问题进行探讨。一方面，在前文研究的基础上对中国经济增长及其因素进行实证分析和比较。另一方面，也对劳动力结构和技术进步、金融自由化和银行业开放、以及金融服务贸易承诺自由化指标等具体问题作了进一步的考察和研究。
本文的主要结论包括：
第一，转型国家经济增长研究具有一定的特殊性和代表性，一方面对经济增长产生影响和作用的经济性因素为数众多，另一方面资本、劳动力等经济生产过程中的传统投入要素，在转型时期具有不同的表现形式。从整体上来看，解决严重的失业问题、积极引入外资、促进金融自由化和贸易开放，以及加快经济制度重建和融入世界多边贸易体系等因素对转型国家经济增长具有最重要的决定作用，这一点无论从理论考察还是实证结果上都得到了充分支持。
第二，在经济全球化的背景下，金融和贸易自由化以及由它们本身推动的银行改革、外资流入(尤其是FDI)以及贸易开放将是转型国家经济改革和发展的必然方向。FDI对绝大多数转型国家而言都是最重要的一种引资方式，它也是转型时期形成固定资本投资的重要来源。而吸引外资和FDI的力度又直接与转型国家银行主导型金融体系的稳健性具有密切联系。在融入世界市场的贸易自由化进程中，中东欧国家明显走在独联体国家的前面。在贸易结构和贸易条件上中东欧国家显示出更多的相对优势，并最终体现为对经济增长的促进作用；此外，这些国家能够在世界多边贸易体系的框架中充分享受成员国资格带来的诸多收益，而俄罗斯、乌克兰、哈萨克斯坦等独联体国家至今还游离在WTO之外。
第三，从技术进步与经济增长的实证分析结果来看，转型国家技术创新、技术扩散和技术进步对经济增长的促进作用并不是十分显著。首先，没有证据显示较高的R&D投入能够带来技术创新或技术吸收能力的提高，进而引起内生的技术增长带动经济发展。其次，解决严重的失业问题，增加就业，增加生产过程中劳动力的投入相对于人力资本的积累而言具有更加重要的现实意义。最后，内生技术增长以及FDI和国际贸易带来的技术扩散并不是转型国家技术进步和劳动生产率增长的重要载体。关于转型国家技术水平和劳动生产率增长的真正决定因素，还有待进一步研究。
第四，通过设计经济转型状态变量和WTO变量这两个具有显著政策性含义的经济指标，可以进一步解释和衡量转型国家经济增长中一些潜在的但又无法真实界定的决定性因素的来源。这是从理论和实证上对经济增长模型的扩展，也是本文具有原创性的研究内容之一。研究和分析的结果再一次证实，刻画经济制度
和结构调整以及市场培育和发展的状态指标对转型国家经济增长具有明显的积极作用，而这一点恰恰正是显示出研究转型国家经济增长问题时的特殊性，因为在非转型国家经济增长决定性因素分析中这类要素往往容易被忽略掉。从CEMA框架到WTO框架转移的意义也不仅仅在于贸易结构和导向的重新定位，更重要的意义在于：加入世界贸易组织已经成为转型国家得到国际社会认可的一种标志，同时加入世界贸易组织也将成为转型国家新一轮全面发展的重要契机和保证。
Since last decade of 20 century, the political, economic and social reforms in transition economies have been dramatically attractive to the economists and policy-makers in the world. This dissertation focuses on the economic transition, especially in the field of economic growth and its determinates in Central East European Countries and Commonwealth of Independent states. In the last part I also investigate the growth and development in China, however the research is limited in some concrete aspects.
Though it seems quite abundant in literature after over ten-year research working, there is still some blanks left in the field of analyzing economic growth in transition countries. The empirical works have resulted in undevelopment, because of lacking reliable data and theoretical supports, compared with the metric-economic studies in other sectors. Therefore, I plan to do some constructive work in this field, using the augment model based on neoclassic economic growth theories. Labor force, investment, technical progress, capital flows, trade liberalization and institutional factors will be comprehensively discussed subject to the economic growth during transition from 1990 to 2003.
Chapter one describes the research objects, purposes and reproaches of the dissertation. Chapter two examines the neoclassical growth model and makes an augment to Solow (1956) Model in order to apply for the empirical analyses in transition economies. Chapter three tests the relationships respectively between financial developments. Capital accumulations, trade liberalization and economic growth. Chapter four investigates the incentives that labor force and technological advances impulse on economic growth. Chapter five focuses on the effects of some institutional factors on growth, such as the establishment of market oriented systems and the affairs of WTO accessions in transition countries. Chapter six argues about some issues of economic developments in China.
Firstly, studies on transition economies are certainly different from those of
other developing countries, not only the reproaches but also the results. It seems that there are some particular factors, which produce the significant impact to the economic growth during transition periods. As a whole, resolving the serious unemployment, attracting FDI, accelerating the process of finance and trade liberalizations, rebuilding economic constitutions and world multilateral trade system might be the most important incentives to economic growth in transition countries.
Secondly, trade liberalization and foreign capital inflow (particularly FDI) will be an inevitable direction to the reforms and developments in transition economies. In the progress of economic opening faced to the world market, CEE countries march aggressively and eight members of them have already joined into EU. However CIS countries such as Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan have still been outside of WTO.
Thirdly, according to my research, technological advances show insignificant effects on economic growth. There are also no evidences of higher R&D inputs resulted in more innovations and higher capacity of technical absorptions. The accumulations of human capital in transition countries are of less importance, compared with the function of employment growth and work force.
Fourthly, the variables of transitional status and WTO accession, which motivate designed in my dissertation, have been approved to be determinates of economic growth. Economic transitional status variable describes some potential and endogens factors, while transformation for CEMA to WTO might be a testimony of the acceptance of world economy.
十多年来转型国家经济改革和发展方面的理论文献还是比较丰富的，但是在转型国家经济增长及其因素分析，尤其是实证研究方面还存在一些空白点。因此，本文以现代经济增长理论作为研究基石，从劳动力、投资、技术进步、金融贸易自由化以及制度因素等方面，对1990年到2003年转型国家的经济增长以及各要素的决定作用等问题进行深入地分析和研究。
从论文的章节安排来看：
第一，明确本文的研究对象、目的以及方法，在此基础上，就本文需要研究的基本问题及其理论和现实意义做出回答，进一步确立本文的结构安排并选择可行的研究方法，阐述本文研究的重要意义及其原创性所在。
第二，从现代经济增长理论入手，在阐述经济增长相关理论与历史溯源的同时，重点引入索洛经济增长模型。并根据本文研究转型国家经济增长问题的特殊性，对索洛增长模型进行理论修正和模型扩展。在此基础上，对转型国家经济增长及其决定因素进行总体性的实证计量分析。
第三，对转型国家金融发展、资本积累和贸易自由化进行考察和研究，具体分析转型时期金融和银行业的改革，投资、资本积累与金融自由化进程中的外资流动，以及以贸易增长、贸易开放和贸易平衡为主要内容的贸易自由化。
第四，分析劳动力市场发展和技术进步对经济增长的作用和影响问题，前一问题主要从劳动力增长、就业和失业问题、人力资本积累以及劳动力流动等方面展开；后一问题则主要考察转型国家技术创新、技术扩散和技术转移对经济增长的作用关系，论证技术进步是否显著促进经济增长。
第五，对转型国家经济制度的重建和加入世界贸易组织问题进行分析，在对转型时期经济制度和市场结构的改革做出总体性描述后，采用适当的变量指标体系，设计经济转型状态变量以及WTO变量，并从计量角度刻画这些具有显著政策性意义的变量与经济增长的关系。
第六，就中国经济转型时期与经济增长相关的一些问题进行探讨。一方面，在前文研究的基础上对中国经济增长及其因素进行实证分析和比较。另一方面，也对劳动力结构和技术进步、金融自由化和银行业开放、以及金融服务贸易承诺自由化指标等具体问题作了进一步的考察和研究。
本文的主要结论包括：
第一，转型国家经济增长研究具有一定的特殊性和代表性，一方面对经济增长产生影响和作用的经济性因素为数众多，另一方面资本、劳动力等经济生产过程中的传统投入要素，在转型时期具有不同的表现形式。从整体上来看，解决严重的失业问题、积极引入外资、促进金融自由化和贸易开放，以及加快经济制度重建和融入世界多边贸易体系等因素对转型国家经济增长具有最重要的决定作用，这一点无论从理论考察还是实证结果上都得到了充分支持。
第二，在经济全球化的背景下，金融和贸易自由化以及由它们本身推动的银行改革、外资流入(尤其是FDI)以及贸易开放将是转型国家经济改革和发展的必然方向。FDI对绝大多数转型国家而言都是最重要的一种引资方式，它也是转型时期形成固定资本投资的重要来源。而吸引外资和FDI的力度又直接与转型国家银行主导型金融体系的稳健性具有密切联系。在融入世界市场的贸易自由化进程中，中东欧国家明显走在独联体国家的前面。在贸易结构和贸易条件上中东欧国家显示出更多的相对优势，并最终体现为对经济增长的促进作用；此外，这些国家能够在世界多边贸易体系的框架中充分享受成员国资格带来的诸多收益，而俄罗斯、乌克兰、哈萨克斯坦等独联体国家至今还游离在WTO之外。
第三，从技术进步与经济增长的实证分析结果来看，转型国家技术创新、技术扩散和技术进步对经济增长的促进作用并不是十分显著。首先，没有证据显示较高的R&D投入能够带来技术创新或技术吸收能力的提高，进而引起内生的技术增长带动经济发展。其次，解决严重的失业问题，增加就业，增加生产过程中劳动力的投入相对于人力资本的积累而言具有更加重要的现实意义。最后，内生技术增长以及FDI和国际贸易带来的技术扩散并不是转型国家技术进步和劳动生产率增长的重要载体。关于转型国家技术水平和劳动生产率增长的真正决定因素，还有待进一步研究。
第四，通过设计经济转型状态变量和WTO变量这两个具有显著政策性含义的经济指标，可以进一步解释和衡量转型国家经济增长中一些潜在的但又无法真实界定的决定性因素的来源。这是从理论和实证上对经济增长模型的扩展，也是本文具有原创性的研究内容之一。研究和分析的结果再一次证实，刻画经济制度
和结构调整以及市场培育和发展的状态指标对转型国家经济增长具有明显的积极作用，而这一点恰恰正是显示出研究转型国家经济增长问题时的特殊性，因为在非转型国家经济增长决定性因素分析中这类要素往往容易被忽略掉。从CEMA框架到WTO框架转移的意义也不仅仅在于贸易结构和导向的重新定位，更重要的意义在于：加入世界贸易组织已经成为转型国家得到国际社会认可的一种标志，同时加入世界贸易组织也将成为转型国家新一轮全面发展的重要契机和保证。
Since last decade of 20 century, the political, economic and social reforms in transition economies have been dramatically attractive to the economists and policy-makers in the world. This dissertation focuses on the economic transition, especially in the field of economic growth and its determinates in Central East European Countries and Commonwealth of Independent states. In the last part I also investigate the growth and development in China, however the research is limited in some concrete aspects.
Though it seems quite abundant in literature after over ten-year research working, there is still some blanks left in the field of analyzing economic growth in transition countries. The empirical works have resulted in undevelopment, because of lacking reliable data and theoretical supports, compared with the metric-economic studies in other sectors. Therefore, I plan to do some constructive work in this field, using the augment model based on neoclassic economic growth theories. Labor force, investment, technical progress, capital flows, trade liberalization and institutional factors will be comprehensively discussed subject to the economic growth during transition from 1990 to 2003.
Chapter one describes the research objects, purposes and reproaches of the dissertation. Chapter two examines the neoclassical growth model and makes an augment to Solow (1956) Model in order to apply for the empirical analyses in transition economies. Chapter three tests the relationships respectively between financial developments. Capital accumulations, trade liberalization and economic growth. Chapter four investigates the incentives that labor force and technological advances impulse on economic growth. Chapter five focuses on the effects of some institutional factors on growth, such as the establishment of market oriented systems and the affairs of WTO accessions in transition countries. Chapter six argues about some issues of economic developments in China.
Firstly, studies on transition economies are certainly different from those of
other developing countries, not only the reproaches but also the results. It seems that there are some particular factors, which produce the significant impact to the economic growth during transition periods. As a whole, resolving the serious unemployment, attracting FDI, accelerating the process of finance and trade liberalizations, rebuilding economic constitutions and world multilateral trade system might be the most important incentives to economic growth in transition countries.
Secondly, trade liberalization and foreign capital inflow (particularly FDI) will be an inevitable direction to the reforms and developments in transition economies. In the progress of economic opening faced to the world market, CEE countries march aggressively and eight members of them have already joined into EU. However CIS countries such as Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan have still been outside of WTO.
Thirdly, according to my research, technological advances show insignificant effects on economic growth. There are also no evidences of higher R&D inputs resulted in more innovations and higher capacity of technical absorptions. The accumulations of human capital in transition countries are of less importance, compared with the function of employment growth and work force.
Fourthly, the variables of transitional status and WTO accession, which motivate designed in my dissertation, have been approved to be determinates of economic growth. Economic transitional status variable describes some potential and endogens factors, while transformation for CEMA to WTO might be a testimony of the acceptance of world economy.
引文
1 尽管白俄罗斯，乌兹别克斯坦和土库曼斯坦等国家没有明确提出市场经济改革的目标和计划，但实际上他们是在向这个方向努力，而且在权威组织的分类和研究中，都没有因此而将这些国家排除在外。
2 CEE中捷克、波兰，匈牙利、斯洛伐克、斯洛文尼亚、爱沙尼亚、拉脱维亚和立陶宛等8个国家已于2004年5月1日加入欧盟，但是鉴于本文研究数据截至2003年底，因此，本文中涉及到的这些转型国家暂且不能作为欧盟成员国对待，同时本文中一般提到的欧盟概念还是指原欧盟15国。
3 实际上，从原南斯拉夫联盟共和国独立出来的国家还包括波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那、塞尔维亚和黑山，但考虑到，一方面，原南斯拉夫大部分地区的政治动荡大大拖后了经济改革的进程，另一方面，这些国家经济转型起步较晚，整个90年代的经济指标和数据残缺不全，所以本文研究转型国家时就未将他们包括在内。
4 这几个国家同其它独联体国家在地缘因素上的差别就是它们位于欧洲。
5 数据来源：Fischer和Sahay(2000)。
1 原文参见Kuznets(1973)。
2 关于索洛增长模型，我们会在下一节作具体探讨。
3 参见Denison(1967)。
4 参见Denison(1976)，与Chung合著。
5 参见Schultz(1961a)。
6 索洛以后的经济学家也有以“知识进展”解释有效劳动概念的。
7 如果引入技术进步的生产函数是Y=F(AK，L)形式，就称为资本增进型。
8 因为F(K，AL)=ALf(K/AL)，所以(?)F(K/AL)=ALf′(k/AL)(l/AL)=f′(k)。
9 L(t)=dL(t)/dt，A(t)=dA(t)/dt
10 具体参见Feenstra，Markusen和Zeile(1992)；Grossman和Helpman(1995a和1995b)；Clerides，Lach和Tybout(1997)；以及Blomstrom和Kokko(1997)。
11 参见Blanchard(1997)。
12 参见Bacchettta和Drabek(2002)。
13 考虑到统计数据的充分性、可比性以及可得性等因素，本文选取转型国家的宏观经济数据一般就从1990年开始。
14 将转型国家划分为中东欧(CEE)和独联体(CIS)两个不同的国家群体，主要是为了分类和比较研究。这种方法，在本文许多地方会出现，作者在此处一并说明。
15 实际GDP为年度平均值，考虑到1990，1991年部分CEE和CIS国家数据不可得，因此，作为CEE和CIS各自的平均值为NA，而作为转型国家整体平均的GDP增长率实际上为匈牙利、罗马尼亚、波兰等国的平均值。
16 CEE国家中除去马其顿加入WTO时间较晚之外，其它国家在世纪交替前后都已经获得WTO成员国资格。
17 世界石油和原材料市场价格上涨是该时期俄罗斯、乌克兰等转型国家经济快速增长的主要原因之一。
18 吉尔吉斯于1998年，格鲁吉亚于2000年加入WTO，稍晚还有亚美尼亚2003年加入WTO。
19 由于表格太大，所以格式上作了特殊处理，采用小五字体，以后如有类似情况，不再重复说明。
20 关于索洛增长模型该种形式的表述可以参见Stern(1991)以及Saltz和Cebula(2000)。
21 具体参见第四章第三节关于技术进步的内容。
22 从该模型回归变量来看，参数p=3，样本数n=14，在统计置信度为0.05情况下，F统计临界值为3.71，t统计临界值为1.7613；置信度为0.10，F统计临界值为2.73，t统计临界值为1.3450。
23 从理论上应该将总样本分为1990-1994，1995-2000以及2001-2003年三个子样本，对应于前文三个阶段。但是考虑到样本容量的问题，尤其是以2000年作断点检验的话，后面仅有2001-2003三个观察值构成一个子样本，而要解释的变量却有四个，这已经没有统计学意义了。因此，本文在实际操作上仅以1995年做chow's断点检验，与样本容量足够大时做两个断点检验相比，其结果在理论上应该是一致的。
24 投资和劳动力变量在0.85的置信度下显著相关。
25 如果选取2000到2003年的季度或月度平均数据，又或者重新选取变量建立模型，相信结果将具有更为显著的统计意义。
26 关于样本截面序列参数非齐性还是时间序列参数非齐性的判断方法参见易丹辉[2002]。
27 这两个模型的提出建立在后文的研究基础上，实际上本节的计量分析是作为本文对转型国家经济增长及其决定因素的总体性研究出现的，因此有这样一个先总后分的格局。
28 这里主要考虑私人投资，因为，这一时期官方资本或者国家组织借款主要投向非生产性领域。
29 SUR代表同时对截面数据异方差和同期相关性进行修正的GLS估计，但是当截面变量较多而时间序列较短时，在本例中对1990-1994以及1995-2003两个子样本估计时，SUR方法往往会失效，所以，作者就采用其它估计方法进行处理。
1 GMM面板数据模型改善了截面数据估计方法，因为，对于那些由于个别国家数据遗漏或者由于回归变量之间相关性导致的问题，GMM模型可以进行直接控制。
2 资料来源：http://www.worldbank.org/research/interest/2003_bank_survey,
3 第二和第三阶段在时间上多少有些重叠，不过我们更多地关注改革的实际内容。
4 塔吉克斯坦的国有比例为4.6％，由此可见，该国最主要的私有化对象是内资，数据来源“2003 Bank Survey”，World Bank。
5 但是阿尔巴尼亚外资控股比重不低，2001年底为46％，数据来源同上。
6 数据来源，捷克国民银行。
7 具体参见Franke(2003)。
8 数据来源：“2003 Bank Survey”，World Bank。
9 这里作如下定义，外资控股银行：至少50％的股权为外国投资者持有：外资参股银行：大于5％而小于50％股权为外国投资者所有：其它为本国银行。
10 数据来源：“The Role of Foreign Banks in Five Central and Eastern European Countries”，November 2003。
11 数据来源：“2003 Bank Survey”，World Bank。
12 资料来源：Franke(2003)。
13 七库曼斯坦10％，斯洛文尼亚11.9％，均为根据1988年巴塞尔协议，进行风险调整后的资本充足率。
14 数据来源：“Basic Trend in the Banking Sector” (2002)。
15 英文原文为：trade policy, fiscal burden of government, government intervention in the economy, monetary policy, capital flows and foreign investment, banking and finance, wages and prices, property rights, regulation and informal (or black) market activity。
16 来自：http://www.heritage.org。
17 来自：http://www.heritage.org。
18 本次模型检验采用数据均为2001年数据。
19 如捷克，1996到2002年银行系统的资本增长率在5％到17％之间变动。参见“The Role of Foreign Banks in Five Central and Eastern European Countries", November 2003。
20 资料来源：“Trade and Development Report 2003”，UNCTAD。
21 1994年为17.6％，2000年为7.8％。
22 资料来源：“Penn World Table Version6.1”，2002。
23 来源：Alan Heston, Robert Summers and Bettina Aten, Penn World Table Version 6.1, Center for International Comparisons at the University of Pennsylvania (CICUP), October 2002.
24 格鲁吉亚和哈萨克斯坦部分年份数据不可得。
25 考虑到2001-2003年投资占GDP比重数据不可得。土库曼斯坦数据基本不可得。
26 严格的说还包括IMF援助计划、捐赠以及国际技术合作的配套资金等。
27 数据来源：Claessens、Oks和Palastri(1998)。
28 因此，研究外资流入特别是FDI对转型国家金融体系的作用，一般从1994年后外资以各种形式参与这些国家银行部门私有化改造的时候开始考察。
29 数据来源：Claessens、Oks和Palastri(1998)。
30 参见Drabek和Griffith-Jones(1998)。
31 具体参见“Trade and Development Report 1999”，UNCTAD。
32 这个结论主要针对转型国家银行部门私有化改造阶段，基本上包含在我们的观察数据范围内。
33 捷克银行系统的资本增长率1996到2002年在5％到17％之间变动。
34 关于样本截面单元参数非齐性还是时间序列参数非齐性的判断方法参见易丹辉(2002)，在置信度为95％的情况下所作F检验结果如下：F_2=44.89大于同分布临界值(查表)，故拒绝回归斜率系数和截距都相同的零假设；F_1=0.4587小于同分布临界值，接受回归斜率系数相同但截距不同的零假设。
35 1998年捷克、匈牙利、波兰、斯洛伐克、斯洛文尼亚等5国外资银行资本充足率分别为：17.3、15.8、15.0、19.7、30.8；2002年这些国家的指标分别为：14.1、13.0、14.9、21.1、12.1，都超过了巴塞尔资本协议8％的最低限度。数据来源：“The Role of Foreign Banks in Five Central and Eastern European Countries”，November 2003。
36 该部分一些结论曾受到庄起菩教授学术观点的启发。
37 这数值实际上是波兰吸引FDI的比例，1990年的数据库中只有保加利亚和波兰两国数据，匈牙利数据不可得，原转型国家斯洛伐克还未解体。数据来源World Economic Outlook Database，IMF官方网站。
38 数据来源World Economic Outlook Database，IMF官方网站，经作者计算而得。
39 本表中数据均为年度净流入量(net inward flow)。
40 波兰在1992到1993年发生过严重的银行危机。
41 本次统计分析在置信度为95％的情况下所作F检验结果如下：F_2=8.8036大于同分布临界值(查表)，故拒绝回归斜率系数和截距都相同的零假设：F_1=2.9628小于同分布临界值，接受回归斜率系数相同但截 距不同的零假设。
42 尽管匈牙利银行资本充足率有所下降，但基本上维持在13％以上(见表3-2-13)，这个水平已经足够补偿信用风险和市场风险，只要资本充足率要求得到保证，短期内金融领域不会有问题。
43 1998年俄罗斯金融危机后，波兰银行贷款业务有所恶化，不良贷款比重的增加源于宏观经济形势的下滑以及银行在贷款投向和评估还贷能力方面的错误判断。
44 本小节部分内容曾受到庄起善教授主持的国家社科基金项目(编号04BJL054)课题组成员集体讨论观点的启发。
45 参见 Josef Brada, "The Political Economy of Communist Foreign Trade Institutions and Policies", Journal of Comparative Economic, Vol. 15, pp 211-238, 1991。
46 数据来源：Jaleel Ahmad and Jing Yang, "Trade Liberalization in Eastern European Countries and the Prospects of Their Integration Into the World Trading System", 1998。
47 这些国家加入WTO是有条件的，它们不能享受完全成员国的同等地位，参见Sam Laird, "Transition Economics, Business and the WTO", Staff Working Paper TPRD-98-03, World Trade Organization, May 1998。
48 参见 Constantine Michalopoulos, "The Integration of Transition Economics into the World Trading System", World Bank working paper 2182, September 1999。
49 有关具体模型的选择和检验方法参见易丹辉主编，《数据分析与Eviews应用》，中国统计出版社，2002年10月第1版，第201-204页。
50 但从回归结果来看两者也属于同方向变化关系。
51 该结论仅针对总体指标回归分析结果而言，并不代表每个转型国家的情况。
52 如罗马尼亚、斯洛文尼亚、阿寒拜疆、土库曼斯坦等国。
53 数据来源：Claessens, Oks和Polastri (1998)。
54 数据来源：“World Trade Report 2003”，WTO。
1 参见《国民财富的性质和原因的研究》，商务印书馆，1978。
2 马尔萨斯理论有两个前提假设：第一，生产要素如土地的供应是固定的，这意味着规模报酬递减效应。第二，人口增长率对应于生活标准的积极效应。具体参见《人口原理》，商务印书馆，1992。
3 来源：http://laborsta.ilo.org。
4 其理论总结可以参见Aghion和Blanchard(1994)的“最优转型速度”理论以及Caballero和Hammour(1996)引入“不完全合同理论”的“创造性毁灭”模型。
5 这里的劳动者个体包括那些找工作的、在职的以及进行技能培训的劳动者。
6 1969年，ILO通过了关于就业政策的基本准则——第122号协定，该协定要求政府与其社会伙伴——雇主和雇员密切合作，共同制定并执行一个积极的政策，以促进充分的、有效率的、以及可以自由选择的就业局面。
7 不过，南斯拉夫的自我管理体制是个例外，计划体制下南斯拉夫失业率依旧很高。
8 来源：http://www.unece.org。
9 也可以称为“非正式经济”，“黑市经济”或者“影子经济”。
10 "Key indicators of the labor market: Country profiles", ILO, 1999。
11 问题主要在于缺乏投资。
12 占总就业的比重，下同。
13 "Key indicators of the labor market: Country profiles ", ILO, 1999。
14 数据来源：IMF Staff Country Report：捷克和波兰。
15 数据来源：Judit Juhasz, "Illegal labour migration and employment in Hungary", International Migration Papers, ILO, 1999。
16 实证分析在本章第三节中，我们同时对人力资本和技术进步与经济增长的关系作了检验。
17 参见Mickelwright (1998)。
18 参见Shavit和Blossfeld (1993)。
19 参见"Education, Inequality and Transition", Micklelwright (2000)。
20 来源：http://www1.worldbank.org/education。
21 参见World Bank(1996)以及Bertocci和Spagat(1998)。
22 德国素以职业教育发达而闻名，具体参见Laporte和Schweitzer(1994)。
23 同上。
24 具体参见IMF Staff Country Report中的相关文献。
25 因为没有关于劳动力地区间流动数据，这里仅对人口迁移数据进行分析，因为我们假设劳动转换是构成人口移动的主要因素之一。
26 每一千人中有43个迁移到国外，下同。
27 资料来源："International Migration from Countries with Economies in Transition: 1980-1999", UN, 2002。
28 这里的吉尼系数是采用劳动者每月实际收入包括奖金(distribution of earnings)数据编制的吉尼系数，为1990-2001平均值。数据来源："TransMONEE 2003", UNICEF Innocenti Research Centre(IRC), 2004。
29 失业率为1990-2000年平均登记失业率，工资增长率为1995-2000平均水平，数据来源：同上。
30 1990-2001年，平均登记失业率为10.3，而实际LFS失业率为10.4。
31 以1989=100％。
32 波罗的海国家劳动力市场有较高的工作转移程度(turn over)，但主要是工作到工作的转换。参见Rutkowski(2003)。
33 克罗地亚1995=100％。
34 在波兰该比例为35％。
35 斯洛伐克为5％，即使失业率同样较高的立陶宛仅为15％。
36 土库曼斯坦的数据不可得。
37 白俄罗斯、亚美尼亚、塔吉克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦的数据不可得。
38 没有白俄罗斯的数据。
39 该指标中欧5国为10.4％，波罗的海国家为11.4％。
40 白俄罗斯1993=100％。
41 没有亚美尼亚的数据。
42 哈萨克斯坦1991=100％，吉尔吉斯1990=100％，土库曼斯坦1993=100％。
43 缺少土库曼斯坦。
44 缺少土库曼斯坦。
45 缺少塔吉克斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦。
46 参见前文人力资本的有关内容。
47 数据来源：The UNESCO Institute for Statistics, http://www.uis.unesco.org。
48 参见Kokko (1994)，Borensztein、De Gregorio和Lee (1998)，以及Kinoshita (2001)。
49 Damijan和Polanec(2001)对斯洛文尼亚的证据显示，1994-1998年间，外资企业的技术增长水平明显低于斯洛文尼亚本国企业的劳动生产率增长。
50 中亚5国数据不可得的情况较多。
51 此处高技术产品参照IT Products定义，包括办公机械和通信设备，即根据UN SITC(Rev.3)中代码75和76下的商品。
52 匈牙利2003年IT产品占进出口比重为21.5％，捷克为11.2％，俄罗斯3.3％，而最低的阿塞拜疆1.7％。
1 我的导师洪文达教授曾与我讨论过从制度变迁层面理解经济转型的思路，他的观点使我对转型国家经济改革过程中制度因素的作用有了进一步的理解。
2 具体参见Roland(2000)。
3 参见Sachs和Woo(1997)。
4 具体参见下一节内容以及第六章关于金融服务自由化指标的计算方法。
5 包括trade policy, fiscal burden of government, government intervention in the economy, monetary policy, capital flows and foreign investment, banking and finance, wages and prices, property rights, regulation and informal (or black) market activity共10个子项目。得分由1-5分，分值越低说明经济自由程度越高。具体描述还可以参见第三章有关内容。
6 自由指标运用现有资料。
7 即由模型(5-2-1)直接得出的结果。
8 具体参见Drabek和Laird(1997)。
9 参见Michalopoulos和Winters(1997)。
10 在本文中取0、1、2和3。
11 实际上，我们同样试图检验F统计量，但是关于时间序列参数齐性模型的残差平方和S_1无法得到，所以最终无法进行计算。参见易丹辉(2002)。
12 此次检验样本数据截面变量不多而且时间序列较长，因此SUR估计方法应当有效。
1 参见李曙光(2003)。
2 持第一种观点的如高尚全等，而持第二种观点的如王跃生等。
3 参见陈磊(2002)。
4 参见杨帆(2000)。
5 一般认为从1978年改革开放起，也有认为从1992年南巡讲话，正式确立市场经济目标时算起。
6 关于模型的说明参见本文第2章内容。
7 一般地，如果R~2值大于0.8，认为模型的拟和优度比较高，而F检验的相伴概率小于事先确定的置信度(如本文0.05)，那么就可以拒绝零假设，认为回归方程是显著的。具体参见易丹辉(2002)。
8 前三项通过置信度为0.95的检验，后三项通过0.85的检验。
9 另外一个衡量FDI的指标，FDI存量占GDP比重，也显示中国在吸引和利用外国投资方面并不具有显著优势。
10 2000年中国FDI／GFCF比重为10.3，捷克32.7，匈牙利24.5，波兰23.8，摩尔多瓦67.6，哈萨克斯坦40.5，格鲁吉亚25.5。
11 另外两个是美国和欧盟。
12 数据来源：《第五次全国人口普查公报(第1号)》。
13 数据来源：《中国统计年鉴2003》。
14 参见张车伟，吴要武(2003)。
15 数据来源：《中国统计年鉴2003》。
16 参见喻桂华，张春煜(2004)。
17 数据来源：《中国统计年鉴2003》以及《中国劳动和社会保障部第四季度新闻发布》，劳动保障部统计和公报，www.cnss.cn。
18 参见蔡昉(2003)。
19 参见周天勇(2003)。
20 数据来源：《2003年全国科技经费投入统计公报》，国家统计局、科技部与财政部，2004年。
21 数据来源：UNESCO。
22 科技活动经费支出总额：指统计年度内用于科学研究与试验发展(R&D)、研究与试验发展(R&D)成果应用以及科技服务活动的实际经费支出，包括从事科技活动人员的劳务费、科研用固定资产购建的支出以及其他用于科技活动的支出。
23 参见第四章相关内容。
24 参见李建民(1999)。
25 参见陆根尧(2004)。
26 参见张海星(2004)。
27 数据来源：《中国统计年鉴2003》。
28 参见葛顺奇(2002)。
29 参见前文内容。
30 此处高技术产品参照IT Products定义，包括办公机械和通信设备，即根据UN SITC(Rev.3)中代码075和076下的商品，数据来源：WTO。
31 根据国家外汇管理局的数据显示为6099亿美元。
32 “外国直接投资、技术外溢与内生经济增长：中国数据的计量检验与实证分析”，载于《中国社会科学》，2001年第5期。
33 参见王子君，张伟(2002)。
34 参见夏京文(2001)。
35 参见江小涓(2002)。
36 参见赵晋平(2001)。
37 参见Wanda Tseng和Harm Zebregs(2002)。
38 包括维尔京群岛、开曼群岛和西萨摩亚。
39 同上。
40 资料来源：中国投资网站，www.fdi.gov.cn.
41 数据来源：中国统计年鉴2003，服务性行业即为第三产业。
42 歌德大学的Bauer教授和Kusic博士曾与我就外资银行进入中东欧转型国家的问题进行过探讨，他们的一些观点对我很有启发。
43 本文涉及概念的中文描述均参考《国际贸易统计手册(中文版)》和中国《服务贸易具体承诺减让表》。
44 参见“Central Production Classification，ver1.0”，联合国统计司，www.un.org。
45 虽然我国证券及相关业务的发展日显重要性，鉴于统计数据的处理难度太大，故本文未将其纳入研究范围，对于金融服务部门的综合性结果可能会造成一些影响，但是对分部门的研究不会造成影响。
46 水平承诺包括减让表所有部门，在市场准入方面，只对3和4做了说明，不包括1和2；在国民待遇方面，差不多，多做了三个部门的不承诺说明。
47 数据来源：“International Trade Statistics：Annual Report”。
48 这一点从上面提及的保险和银行占服务行业比重也可以看出来。
49 同1997年计算方法。
50 中国的指标为44.1和46.2。此指标都未经加权处理。
51 按照本文引用的分类标准，准确地说，Mattoo的研究对象是银行及其它金融服务中的存款和贷款三级子部门，以及保险及相关服务中的寿险和非寿险部门。
52 他的计算权重与本文是完全不同的，具体参见Mattoo(1999)。
53 鉴于在研究对象、计算方法以及模型设置等方面不尽相同，因此上述指标的可比性并不是很强，这里只是给大家提供参考。
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2 CEE中捷克、波兰，匈牙利、斯洛伐克、斯洛文尼亚、爱沙尼亚、拉脱维亚和立陶宛等8个国家已于2004年5月1日加入欧盟，但是鉴于本文研究数据截至2003年底，因此，本文中涉及到的这些转型国家暂且不能作为欧盟成员国对待，同时本文中一般提到的欧盟概念还是指原欧盟15国。
3 实际上，从原南斯拉夫联盟共和国独立出来的国家还包括波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那、塞尔维亚和黑山，但考虑到，一方面，原南斯拉夫大部分地区的政治动荡大大拖后了经济改革的进程，另一方面，这些国家经济转型起步较晚，整个90年代的经济指标和数据残缺不全，所以本文研究转型国家时就未将他们包括在内。
4 这几个国家同其它独联体国家在地缘因素上的差别就是它们位于欧洲。
5 数据来源：Fischer和Sahay(2000)。
1 原文参见Kuznets(1973)。
2 关于索洛增长模型，我们会在下一节作具体探讨。
3 参见Denison(1967)。
4 参见Denison(1976)，与Chung合著。
5 参见Schultz(1961a)。
6 索洛以后的经济学家也有以“知识进展”解释有效劳动概念的。
7 如果引入技术进步的生产函数是Y=F(AK，L)形式，就称为资本增进型。
8 因为F(K，AL)=ALf(K/AL)，所以(?)F(K/AL)=ALf′(k/AL)(l/AL)=f′(k)。
9 L(t)=dL(t)/dt，A(t)=dA(t)/dt
10 具体参见Feenstra，Markusen和Zeile(1992)；Grossman和Helpman(1995a和1995b)；Clerides，Lach和Tybout(1997)；以及Blomstrom和Kokko(1997)。
11 参见Blanchard(1997)。
12 参见Bacchettta和Drabek(2002)。
13 考虑到统计数据的充分性、可比性以及可得性等因素，本文选取转型国家的宏观经济数据一般就从1990年开始。
14 将转型国家划分为中东欧(CEE)和独联体(CIS)两个不同的国家群体，主要是为了分类和比较研究。这种方法，在本文许多地方会出现，作者在此处一并说明。
15 实际GDP为年度平均值，考虑到1990，1991年部分CEE和CIS国家数据不可得，因此，作为CEE和CIS各自的平均值为NA，而作为转型国家整体平均的GDP增长率实际上为匈牙利、罗马尼亚、波兰等国的平均值。
16 CEE国家中除去马其顿加入WTO时间较晚之外，其它国家在世纪交替前后都已经获得WTO成员国资格。
17 世界石油和原材料市场价格上涨是该时期俄罗斯、乌克兰等转型国家经济快速增长的主要原因之一。
18 吉尔吉斯于1998年，格鲁吉亚于2000年加入WTO，稍晚还有亚美尼亚2003年加入WTO。
19 由于表格太大，所以格式上作了特殊处理，采用小五字体，以后如有类似情况，不再重复说明。
20 关于索洛增长模型该种形式的表述可以参见Stern(1991)以及Saltz和Cebula(2000)。
21 具体参见第四章第三节关于技术进步的内容。
22 从该模型回归变量来看，参数p=3，样本数n=14，在统计置信度为0.05情况下，F统计临界值为3.71，t统计临界值为1.7613；置信度为0.10，F统计临界值为2.73，t统计临界值为1.3450。
23 从理论上应该将总样本分为1990-1994，1995-2000以及2001-2003年三个子样本，对应于前文三个阶段。但是考虑到样本容量的问题，尤其是以2000年作断点检验的话，后面仅有2001-2003三个观察值构成一个子样本，而要解释的变量却有四个，这已经没有统计学意义了。因此，本文在实际操作上仅以1995年做chow's断点检验，与样本容量足够大时做两个断点检验相比，其结果在理论上应该是一致的。
24 投资和劳动力变量在0.85的置信度下显著相关。
25 如果选取2000到2003年的季度或月度平均数据，又或者重新选取变量建立模型，相信结果将具有更为显著的统计意义。
26 关于样本截面序列参数非齐性还是时间序列参数非齐性的判断方法参见易丹辉[2002]。
27 这两个模型的提出建立在后文的研究基础上，实际上本节的计量分析是作为本文对转型国家经济增长及其决定因素的总体性研究出现的，因此有这样一个先总后分的格局。
28 这里主要考虑私人投资，因为，这一时期官方资本或者国家组织借款主要投向非生产性领域。
29 SUR代表同时对截面数据异方差和同期相关性进行修正的GLS估计，但是当截面变量较多而时间序列较短时，在本例中对1990-1994以及1995-2003两个子样本估计时，SUR方法往往会失效，所以，作者就采用其它估计方法进行处理。
1 GMM面板数据模型改善了截面数据估计方法，因为，对于那些由于个别国家数据遗漏或者由于回归变量之间相关性导致的问题，GMM模型可以进行直接控制。
2 资料来源：http://www.worldbank.org/research/interest/2003_bank_survey,
3 第二和第三阶段在时间上多少有些重叠，不过我们更多地关注改革的实际内容。
4 塔吉克斯坦的国有比例为4.6％，由此可见，该国最主要的私有化对象是内资，数据来源“2003 Bank Survey”，World Bank。
5 但是阿尔巴尼亚外资控股比重不低，2001年底为46％，数据来源同上。
6 数据来源，捷克国民银行。
7 具体参见Franke(2003)。
8 数据来源：“2003 Bank Survey”，World Bank。
9 这里作如下定义，外资控股银行：至少50％的股权为外国投资者持有：外资参股银行：大于5％而小于50％股权为外国投资者所有：其它为本国银行。
10 数据来源：“The Role of Foreign Banks in Five Central and Eastern European Countries”，November 2003。
11 数据来源：“2003 Bank Survey”，World Bank。
12 资料来源：Franke(2003)。
13 七库曼斯坦10％，斯洛文尼亚11.9％，均为根据1988年巴塞尔协议，进行风险调整后的资本充足率。
14 数据来源：“Basic Trend in the Banking Sector” (2002)。
15 英文原文为：trade policy, fiscal burden of government, government intervention in the economy, monetary policy, capital flows and foreign investment, banking and finance, wages and prices, property rights, regulation and informal (or black) market activity。
16 来自：http://www.heritage.org。
17 来自：http://www.heritage.org。
18 本次模型检验采用数据均为2001年数据。
19 如捷克，1996到2002年银行系统的资本增长率在5％到17％之间变动。参见“The Role of Foreign Banks in Five Central and Eastern European Countries", November 2003。
20 资料来源：“Trade and Development Report 2003”，UNCTAD。
21 1994年为17.6％，2000年为7.8％。
22 资料来源：“Penn World Table Version6.1”，2002。
23 来源：Alan Heston, Robert Summers and Bettina Aten, Penn World Table Version 6.1, Center for International Comparisons at the University of Pennsylvania (CICUP), October 2002.
24 格鲁吉亚和哈萨克斯坦部分年份数据不可得。
25 考虑到2001-2003年投资占GDP比重数据不可得。土库曼斯坦数据基本不可得。
26 严格的说还包括IMF援助计划、捐赠以及国际技术合作的配套资金等。
27 数据来源：Claessens、Oks和Palastri(1998)。
28 因此，研究外资流入特别是FDI对转型国家金融体系的作用，一般从1994年后外资以各种形式参与这些国家银行部门私有化改造的时候开始考察。
29 数据来源：Claessens、Oks和Palastri(1998)。
30 参见Drabek和Griffith-Jones(1998)。
31 具体参见“Trade and Development Report 1999”，UNCTAD。
32 这个结论主要针对转型国家银行部门私有化改造阶段，基本上包含在我们的观察数据范围内。
33 捷克银行系统的资本增长率1996到2002年在5％到17％之间变动。
34 关于样本截面单元参数非齐性还是时间序列参数非齐性的判断方法参见易丹辉(2002)，在置信度为95％的情况下所作F检验结果如下：F_2=44.89大于同分布临界值(查表)，故拒绝回归斜率系数和截距都相同的零假设；F_1=0.4587小于同分布临界值，接受回归斜率系数相同但截距不同的零假设。
35 1998年捷克、匈牙利、波兰、斯洛伐克、斯洛文尼亚等5国外资银行资本充足率分别为：17.3、15.8、15.0、19.7、30.8；2002年这些国家的指标分别为：14.1、13.0、14.9、21.1、12.1，都超过了巴塞尔资本协议8％的最低限度。数据来源：“The Role of Foreign Banks in Five Central and Eastern European Countries”，November 2003。
36 该部分一些结论曾受到庄起菩教授学术观点的启发。
37 这数值实际上是波兰吸引FDI的比例，1990年的数据库中只有保加利亚和波兰两国数据，匈牙利数据不可得，原转型国家斯洛伐克还未解体。数据来源World Economic Outlook Database，IMF官方网站。
38 数据来源World Economic Outlook Database，IMF官方网站，经作者计算而得。
39 本表中数据均为年度净流入量(net inward flow)。
40 波兰在1992到1993年发生过严重的银行危机。
41 本次统计分析在置信度为95％的情况下所作F检验结果如下：F_2=8.8036大于同分布临界值(查表)，故拒绝回归斜率系数和截距都相同的零假设：F_1=2.9628小于同分布临界值，接受回归斜率系数相同但截 距不同的零假设。
42 尽管匈牙利银行资本充足率有所下降，但基本上维持在13％以上(见表3-2-13)，这个水平已经足够补偿信用风险和市场风险，只要资本充足率要求得到保证，短期内金融领域不会有问题。
43 1998年俄罗斯金融危机后，波兰银行贷款业务有所恶化，不良贷款比重的增加源于宏观经济形势的下滑以及银行在贷款投向和评估还贷能力方面的错误判断。
44 本小节部分内容曾受到庄起善教授主持的国家社科基金项目(编号04BJL054)课题组成员集体讨论观点的启发。
45 参见 Josef Brada, "The Political Economy of Communist Foreign Trade Institutions and Policies", Journal of Comparative Economic, Vol. 15, pp 211-238, 1991。
46 数据来源：Jaleel Ahmad and Jing Yang, "Trade Liberalization in Eastern European Countries and the Prospects of Their Integration Into the World Trading System", 1998。
47 这些国家加入WTO是有条件的，它们不能享受完全成员国的同等地位，参见Sam Laird, "Transition Economics, Business and the WTO", Staff Working Paper TPRD-98-03, World Trade Organization, May 1998。
48 参见 Constantine Michalopoulos, "The Integration of Transition Economics into the World Trading System", World Bank working paper 2182, September 1999。
49 有关具体模型的选择和检验方法参见易丹辉主编，《数据分析与Eviews应用》，中国统计出版社，2002年10月第1版，第201-204页。
50 但从回归结果来看两者也属于同方向变化关系。
51 该结论仅针对总体指标回归分析结果而言，并不代表每个转型国家的情况。
52 如罗马尼亚、斯洛文尼亚、阿寒拜疆、土库曼斯坦等国。
53 数据来源：Claessens, Oks和Polastri (1998)。
54 数据来源：“World Trade Report 2003”，WTO。
1 参见《国民财富的性质和原因的研究》，商务印书馆，1978。
2 马尔萨斯理论有两个前提假设：第一，生产要素如土地的供应是固定的，这意味着规模报酬递减效应。第二，人口增长率对应于生活标准的积极效应。具体参见《人口原理》，商务印书馆，1992。
3 来源：http://laborsta.ilo.org。
4 其理论总结可以参见Aghion和Blanchard(1994)的“最优转型速度”理论以及Caballero和Hammour(1996)引入“不完全合同理论”的“创造性毁灭”模型。
5 这里的劳动者个体包括那些找工作的、在职的以及进行技能培训的劳动者。
6 1969年，ILO通过了关于就业政策的基本准则——第122号协定，该协定要求政府与其社会伙伴——雇主和雇员密切合作，共同制定并执行一个积极的政策，以促进充分的、有效率的、以及可以自由选择的就业局面。
7 不过，南斯拉夫的自我管理体制是个例外，计划体制下南斯拉夫失业率依旧很高。
8 来源：http://www.unece.org。
9 也可以称为“非正式经济”，“黑市经济”或者“影子经济”。
10 "Key indicators of the labor market: Country profiles", ILO, 1999。
11 问题主要在于缺乏投资。
12 占总就业的比重，下同。
13 "Key indicators of the labor market: Country profiles ", ILO, 1999。
14 数据来源：IMF Staff Country Report：捷克和波兰。
15 数据来源：Judit Juhasz, "Illegal labour migration and employment in Hungary", International Migration Papers, ILO, 1999。
16 实证分析在本章第三节中，我们同时对人力资本和技术进步与经济增长的关系作了检验。
17 参见Mickelwright (1998)。
18 参见Shavit和Blossfeld (1993)。
19 参见"Education, Inequality and Transition", Micklelwright (2000)。
20 来源：http://www1.worldbank.org/education。
21 参见World Bank(1996)以及Bertocci和Spagat(1998)。
22 德国素以职业教育发达而闻名，具体参见Laporte和Schweitzer(1994)。
23 同上。
24 具体参见IMF Staff Country Report中的相关文献。
25 因为没有关于劳动力地区间流动数据，这里仅对人口迁移数据进行分析，因为我们假设劳动转换是构成人口移动的主要因素之一。
26 每一千人中有43个迁移到国外，下同。
27 资料来源："International Migration from Countries with Economies in Transition: 1980-1999", UN, 2002。
28 这里的吉尼系数是采用劳动者每月实际收入包括奖金(distribution of earnings)数据编制的吉尼系数，为1990-2001平均值。数据来源："TransMONEE 2003", UNICEF Innocenti Research Centre(IRC), 2004。
29 失业率为1990-2000年平均登记失业率，工资增长率为1995-2000平均水平，数据来源：同上。
30 1990-2001年，平均登记失业率为10.3，而实际LFS失业率为10.4。
31 以1989=100％。
32 波罗的海国家劳动力市场有较高的工作转移程度(turn over)，但主要是工作到工作的转换。参见Rutkowski(2003)。
33 克罗地亚1995=100％。
34 在波兰该比例为35％。
35 斯洛伐克为5％，即使失业率同样较高的立陶宛仅为15％。
36 土库曼斯坦的数据不可得。
37 白俄罗斯、亚美尼亚、塔吉克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦的数据不可得。
38 没有白俄罗斯的数据。
39 该指标中欧5国为10.4％，波罗的海国家为11.4％。
40 白俄罗斯1993=100％。
41 没有亚美尼亚的数据。
42 哈萨克斯坦1991=100％，吉尔吉斯1990=100％，土库曼斯坦1993=100％。
43 缺少土库曼斯坦。
44 缺少土库曼斯坦。
45 缺少塔吉克斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦。
46 参见前文人力资本的有关内容。
47 数据来源：The UNESCO Institute for Statistics, http://www.uis.unesco.org。
48 参见Kokko (1994)，Borensztein、De Gregorio和Lee (1998)，以及Kinoshita (2001)。
49 Damijan和Polanec(2001)对斯洛文尼亚的证据显示，1994-1998年间，外资企业的技术增长水平明显低于斯洛文尼亚本国企业的劳动生产率增长。
50 中亚5国数据不可得的情况较多。
51 此处高技术产品参照IT Products定义，包括办公机械和通信设备，即根据UN SITC(Rev.3)中代码75和76下的商品。
52 匈牙利2003年IT产品占进出口比重为21.5％，捷克为11.2％，俄罗斯3.3％，而最低的阿塞拜疆1.7％。
1 我的导师洪文达教授曾与我讨论过从制度变迁层面理解经济转型的思路，他的观点使我对转型国家经济改革过程中制度因素的作用有了进一步的理解。
2 具体参见Roland(2000)。
3 参见Sachs和Woo(1997)。
4 具体参见下一节内容以及第六章关于金融服务自由化指标的计算方法。
5 包括trade policy, fiscal burden of government, government intervention in the economy, monetary policy, capital flows and foreign investment, banking and finance, wages and prices, property rights, regulation and informal (or black) market activity共10个子项目。得分由1-5分，分值越低说明经济自由程度越高。具体描述还可以参见第三章有关内容。
6 自由指标运用现有资料。
7 即由模型(5-2-1)直接得出的结果。
8 具体参见Drabek和Laird(1997)。
9 参见Michalopoulos和Winters(1997)。
10 在本文中取0、1、2和3。
11 实际上，我们同样试图检验F统计量，但是关于时间序列参数齐性模型的残差平方和S_1无法得到，所以最终无法进行计算。参见易丹辉(2002)。
12 此次检验样本数据截面变量不多而且时间序列较长，因此SUR估计方法应当有效。
1 参见李曙光(2003)。
2 持第一种观点的如高尚全等，而持第二种观点的如王跃生等。
3 参见陈磊(2002)。
4 参见杨帆(2000)。
5 一般认为从1978年改革开放起，也有认为从1992年南巡讲话，正式确立市场经济目标时算起。
6 关于模型的说明参见本文第2章内容。
7 一般地，如果R~2值大于0.8，认为模型的拟和优度比较高，而F检验的相伴概率小于事先确定的置信度(如本文0.05)，那么就可以拒绝零假设，认为回归方程是显著的。具体参见易丹辉(2002)。
8 前三项通过置信度为0.95的检验，后三项通过0.85的检验。
9 另外一个衡量FDI的指标，FDI存量占GDP比重，也显示中国在吸引和利用外国投资方面并不具有显著优势。
10 2000年中国FDI／GFCF比重为10.3，捷克32.7，匈牙利24.5，波兰23.8，摩尔多瓦67.6，哈萨克斯坦40.5，格鲁吉亚25.5。
11 另外两个是美国和欧盟。
12 数据来源：《第五次全国人口普查公报(第1号)》。
13 数据来源：《中国统计年鉴2003》。
14 参见张车伟，吴要武(2003)。
15 数据来源：《中国统计年鉴2003》。
16 参见喻桂华，张春煜(2004)。
17 数据来源：《中国统计年鉴2003》以及《中国劳动和社会保障部第四季度新闻发布》，劳动保障部统计和公报，www.cnss.cn。
18 参见蔡昉(2003)。
19 参见周天勇(2003)。
20 数据来源：《2003年全国科技经费投入统计公报》，国家统计局、科技部与财政部，2004年。
21 数据来源：UNESCO。
22 科技活动经费支出总额：指统计年度内用于科学研究与试验发展(R&D)、研究与试验发展(R&D)成果应用以及科技服务活动的实际经费支出，包括从事科技活动人员的劳务费、科研用固定资产购建的支出以及其他用于科技活动的支出。
23 参见第四章相关内容。
24 参见李建民(1999)。
25 参见陆根尧(2004)。
26 参见张海星(2004)。
27 数据来源：《中国统计年鉴2003》。
28 参见葛顺奇(2002)。
29 参见前文内容。
30 此处高技术产品参照IT Products定义，包括办公机械和通信设备，即根据UN SITC(Rev.3)中代码075和076下的商品，数据来源：WTO。
31 根据国家外汇管理局的数据显示为6099亿美元。
32 “外国直接投资、技术外溢与内生经济增长：中国数据的计量检验与实证分析”，载于《中国社会科学》，2001年第5期。
33 参见王子君，张伟(2002)。
34 参见夏京文(2001)。
35 参见江小涓(2002)。
36 参见赵晋平(2001)。
37 参见Wanda Tseng和Harm Zebregs(2002)。
38 包括维尔京群岛、开曼群岛和西萨摩亚。
39 同上。
40 资料来源：中国投资网站，www.fdi.gov.cn.
41 数据来源：中国统计年鉴2003，服务性行业即为第三产业。
42 歌德大学的Bauer教授和Kusic博士曾与我就外资银行进入中东欧转型国家的问题进行过探讨，他们的一些观点对我很有启发。
43 本文涉及概念的中文描述均参考《国际贸易统计手册(中文版)》和中国《服务贸易具体承诺减让表》。
44 参见“Central Production Classification，ver1.0”，联合国统计司，www.un.org。
45 虽然我国证券及相关业务的发展日显重要性，鉴于统计数据的处理难度太大，故本文未将其纳入研究范围，对于金融服务部门的综合性结果可能会造成一些影响，但是对分部门的研究不会造成影响。
46 水平承诺包括减让表所有部门，在市场准入方面，只对3和4做了说明，不包括1和2；在国民待遇方面，差不多，多做了三个部门的不承诺说明。
47 数据来源：“International Trade Statistics：Annual Report”。
48 这一点从上面提及的保险和银行占服务行业比重也可以看出来。
49 同1997年计算方法。
50 中国的指标为44.1和46.2。此指标都未经加权处理。
51 按照本文引用的分类标准，准确地说，Mattoo的研究对象是银行及其它金融服务中的存款和贷款三级子部门，以及保险及相关服务中的寿险和非寿险部门。
52 他的计算权重与本文是完全不同的，具体参见Mattoo(1999)。
53 鉴于在研究对象、计算方法以及模型设置等方面不尽相同，因此上述指标的可比性并不是很强，这里只是给大家提供参考。
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