环渤海经济圈海洋产业集聚与区域环境资源耦合研究
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摘要
环渤海经济圈具有独特的区位优势,是东北亚地区的经济中心和连接欧亚大陆桥的要地。其资源优势突出,海洋产业基础雄厚,呈现专业化集聚态势。该地区海洋总产值和增加值在全国占有举足轻重的地位,环渤海经济圈被誉为引领中国经济发展的“第三极”。然而,环渤海经济圈海洋产业发展中,由于缺乏有效的协调合作机制,生产要素流动不畅,导致低水平重复建设,产业结构层次较低,区域集聚效应较弱,从而影响了区域环境资源的优化配置,面临严峻的生态与环境问题。
本文以物理学中的耦合关系作为研究切入点,首次把耦合关系用于环境资源配置的研究中,综合运用环境经济学、计量经济学、产业经济学、系统科学等学科的相关研究方法,探寻环渤海经济圈海洋产业集聚与区域环境资源之间的耦合机理,揭示海洋产业集聚与区域环境资源的耦合协调度,进而设计促进环渤海经济圈产业集聚与区域环境资源协调发展的耦合机制,以提高区域协同效应,提高区域环境资源的配置效率。
本文首先运用SWOT模型分析环渤海经济圈海洋产业的优势与劣势、机遇与挑战,并建立决策矩阵,找出产业集聚的竞争优势。然后采用改进的区位商数方法对环渤海经济圈海洋产业集聚度进行定量测度,并通过计算长三角和珠三角地区的区位商数与环渤海经济圈进行比较分析,认为环渤海经济圈海洋各产业集聚程度处于相对落后状态,特别是第二、三产业集聚程度差别较大。在此基础上,一方面基于自然禀赋、环境污染、劳动力资源、科技创新、社会资本等环境资源因素,利用灰色关联模型和回归分析方法实证分析了环境资源因素对海洋产业集聚发展的影响。由此得出:在环渤海海洋产业集聚的影响因素中的主导因素是资本因素,其次是外围因素中的市场化程度。同时环境对海洋产业集聚的影响也不容忽视,环境污染增加1单位,则环渤海经济圈海洋产业集聚生产总值减缓1.208个百分点。另一方面研究了环渤海经济圈海洋产业集聚对区域环境资源的经济影响效应,包括资源集聚效应、经济规避效应、国际直接投资(FDI)效应、技术溢出和技术创新效应。在规范分析的理论基础上,利用灰色关联度模型、线性回归分析模型和层次分析法进行具体实证分析,得到的结论是:环渤海经济圈海洋产业集聚对环渤海经济圈的就业有较大影响,而环渤海经济圈的海洋产业还没成为吸引外商投资的主要产业,随着环渤海经济圈的科研机构与海洋产业人才的聚集度越来越高,同时科技成果转化为现实生产力越来越快,科技便构成经济增长的Granger原因,海洋产业集聚带来的技术溢出与创新效应明显。
最后根据系统论原理,创新地设计出产业集聚与环境资源的耦合元素指标,构建了耦合度、耦合协调度模型,进而对环渤海经济圈产业集聚与环境资源的耦合协调度进行评价,运用神经网络技术对两者之间的耦合关系进行预测。并利用Granger因果关系检验方法揭示环境资源因素与产业集聚的动态关联的耦合机理。表明,环渤海经济圈海洋产业集聚同区域环境资源之间的耦合协调程度正趋于转好。并据此设计了环渤海经济圈海洋产业集聚与区域环境资源协调的可持续发展的耦合机制,为该地区海洋产业集聚进一步发展、环境资源有效利用以及两者的协调发展作了积极的尝试。
The economic circle around Bohai Sea has a particular area advantage; it is the economic center of Northeastern Asia and plays an important rule in the juncture between Asia and Europe. It is outstanding on the advantage of resources, the basic of marine industry is abundant and the industry presents the state of specialization and centralization. The total production of marine industry and increasing value of this area hold the balance in China, the economic circle around Bohai Sea is named the third pole which leads the economic development of China. However, in the development of marine industry around Bohai Sea, lacking in effective system leads to low-level repeated building, inferior industrial structure and weak effect of territorial centralization. The result effects the best deploy about the environmental resources in this area, it makes us face the flinty environmental problem.
The paper cites the coupling relationship from physics; it is the first time to use coupling in the research of environmental resources. We synthetically apply environmental economics, econometrics, industrial economics, systematic science and other relative ways to the research, explore the coupling theory and coupled coordination between the marine industrial cluster and environmental resources in the economic circle around Bohai Sea, and then design the coupling mechanism which promotes the harmonious between the marine industrial cluster and environmental resources, so as to improve the cooperation of the area.
The paper firstly uses SWOT model to analyze strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats of marine industry in the economic circle around Bohai Sea, builds decision-making matrix and finds out the competitive advantages of the marine industrial cluster. Then it measures the industrial cluster through the improved LQ way; analyze the location quotient of Chang San Jiao, Zhu San Jiao and the economic circle around Bohai Sea, and thinks that the industrial cluster of the economic circle around Bohai Sea falls behind, especially the difference between the second industry and the third industry. On the basic of environmental factors, such as gifted nature, pollution, labor resources, technological innovation, social capital and etc, we analyze the effect of environmental resources to the development of the marine industry by using the grey related model and regressive analysis. So we can get the result that capital takes the dominant place in the effective factors of the marine industrial cluster around Bohai Sea, and then the external factor is the degree of market. At the same time, we can’t ignore the effect of environmental resources to the marine industrial cluster, when the pollution increases 1 percent, the total production of marine industry around the Bohai Sea will reduce 1.208 percent; we also study the economic effect of the marine industrial cluster to the environmental resources in this area. It includes resource-centralization effect, economic avoiding effect, FDI effect, technological spillover and technological innovation effect. We make the detail analysis using grey related model, regressive analysis and layer analysis method on the basic of criterion analysis, we get a result that cluster of the marine industry highly influence the employment of this area, and the marine industry around Bohai Sea has not become the leading industry in attracting foreign direct investment. With more and more scholars and institutions studying in this area, technology will become the Granger reason of economic increase, technological spillover and technological innovation effect will be clear.
On the basic of systematic theory, we creatively design the coupling parameter of industrial cluster and environmental resources, build coupled coordination model, and then estimate the coupled coordination degree of industrial cluster to environmental resources around the economic circle of Bohai Sea, predict the coupling relations of the above two factors by neural networks .Using the Granger-causality test open out the coupling mechanism of dynamic association between the factor of environmental resources and industrial cluster. The result tells that the coupled coordination degree between the marine industrial cluster and environmental resources around the economic circle of Bohai Sea is becoming better and better. We design the coupling system of sustainable development to the marine industrial cluster and environmental resources around Bohai Sea, and try to harmonize the environmental resources and marine industry.
本文以物理学中的耦合关系作为研究切入点,首次把耦合关系用于环境资源配置的研究中,综合运用环境经济学、计量经济学、产业经济学、系统科学等学科的相关研究方法,探寻环渤海经济圈海洋产业集聚与区域环境资源之间的耦合机理,揭示海洋产业集聚与区域环境资源的耦合协调度,进而设计促进环渤海经济圈产业集聚与区域环境资源协调发展的耦合机制,以提高区域协同效应,提高区域环境资源的配置效率。
本文首先运用SWOT模型分析环渤海经济圈海洋产业的优势与劣势、机遇与挑战,并建立决策矩阵,找出产业集聚的竞争优势。然后采用改进的区位商数方法对环渤海经济圈海洋产业集聚度进行定量测度,并通过计算长三角和珠三角地区的区位商数与环渤海经济圈进行比较分析,认为环渤海经济圈海洋各产业集聚程度处于相对落后状态,特别是第二、三产业集聚程度差别较大。在此基础上,一方面基于自然禀赋、环境污染、劳动力资源、科技创新、社会资本等环境资源因素,利用灰色关联模型和回归分析方法实证分析了环境资源因素对海洋产业集聚发展的影响。由此得出:在环渤海海洋产业集聚的影响因素中的主导因素是资本因素,其次是外围因素中的市场化程度。同时环境对海洋产业集聚的影响也不容忽视,环境污染增加1单位,则环渤海经济圈海洋产业集聚生产总值减缓1.208个百分点。另一方面研究了环渤海经济圈海洋产业集聚对区域环境资源的经济影响效应,包括资源集聚效应、经济规避效应、国际直接投资(FDI)效应、技术溢出和技术创新效应。在规范分析的理论基础上,利用灰色关联度模型、线性回归分析模型和层次分析法进行具体实证分析,得到的结论是:环渤海经济圈海洋产业集聚对环渤海经济圈的就业有较大影响,而环渤海经济圈的海洋产业还没成为吸引外商投资的主要产业,随着环渤海经济圈的科研机构与海洋产业人才的聚集度越来越高,同时科技成果转化为现实生产力越来越快,科技便构成经济增长的Granger原因,海洋产业集聚带来的技术溢出与创新效应明显。
最后根据系统论原理,创新地设计出产业集聚与环境资源的耦合元素指标,构建了耦合度、耦合协调度模型,进而对环渤海经济圈产业集聚与环境资源的耦合协调度进行评价,运用神经网络技术对两者之间的耦合关系进行预测。并利用Granger因果关系检验方法揭示环境资源因素与产业集聚的动态关联的耦合机理。表明,环渤海经济圈海洋产业集聚同区域环境资源之间的耦合协调程度正趋于转好。并据此设计了环渤海经济圈海洋产业集聚与区域环境资源协调的可持续发展的耦合机制,为该地区海洋产业集聚进一步发展、环境资源有效利用以及两者的协调发展作了积极的尝试。
The economic circle around Bohai Sea has a particular area advantage; it is the economic center of Northeastern Asia and plays an important rule in the juncture between Asia and Europe. It is outstanding on the advantage of resources, the basic of marine industry is abundant and the industry presents the state of specialization and centralization. The total production of marine industry and increasing value of this area hold the balance in China, the economic circle around Bohai Sea is named the third pole which leads the economic development of China. However, in the development of marine industry around Bohai Sea, lacking in effective system leads to low-level repeated building, inferior industrial structure and weak effect of territorial centralization. The result effects the best deploy about the environmental resources in this area, it makes us face the flinty environmental problem.
The paper cites the coupling relationship from physics; it is the first time to use coupling in the research of environmental resources. We synthetically apply environmental economics, econometrics, industrial economics, systematic science and other relative ways to the research, explore the coupling theory and coupled coordination between the marine industrial cluster and environmental resources in the economic circle around Bohai Sea, and then design the coupling mechanism which promotes the harmonious between the marine industrial cluster and environmental resources, so as to improve the cooperation of the area.
The paper firstly uses SWOT model to analyze strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats of marine industry in the economic circle around Bohai Sea, builds decision-making matrix and finds out the competitive advantages of the marine industrial cluster. Then it measures the industrial cluster through the improved LQ way; analyze the location quotient of Chang San Jiao, Zhu San Jiao and the economic circle around Bohai Sea, and thinks that the industrial cluster of the economic circle around Bohai Sea falls behind, especially the difference between the second industry and the third industry. On the basic of environmental factors, such as gifted nature, pollution, labor resources, technological innovation, social capital and etc, we analyze the effect of environmental resources to the development of the marine industry by using the grey related model and regressive analysis. So we can get the result that capital takes the dominant place in the effective factors of the marine industrial cluster around Bohai Sea, and then the external factor is the degree of market. At the same time, we can’t ignore the effect of environmental resources to the marine industrial cluster, when the pollution increases 1 percent, the total production of marine industry around the Bohai Sea will reduce 1.208 percent; we also study the economic effect of the marine industrial cluster to the environmental resources in this area. It includes resource-centralization effect, economic avoiding effect, FDI effect, technological spillover and technological innovation effect. We make the detail analysis using grey related model, regressive analysis and layer analysis method on the basic of criterion analysis, we get a result that cluster of the marine industry highly influence the employment of this area, and the marine industry around Bohai Sea has not become the leading industry in attracting foreign direct investment. With more and more scholars and institutions studying in this area, technology will become the Granger reason of economic increase, technological spillover and technological innovation effect will be clear.
On the basic of systematic theory, we creatively design the coupling parameter of industrial cluster and environmental resources, build coupled coordination model, and then estimate the coupled coordination degree of industrial cluster to environmental resources around the economic circle of Bohai Sea, predict the coupling relations of the above two factors by neural networks .Using the Granger-causality test open out the coupling mechanism of dynamic association between the factor of environmental resources and industrial cluster. The result tells that the coupled coordination degree between the marine industrial cluster and environmental resources around the economic circle of Bohai Sea is becoming better and better. We design the coupling system of sustainable development to the marine industrial cluster and environmental resources around Bohai Sea, and try to harmonize the environmental resources and marine industry.
引文
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