我国农业中间投入问题研究
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摘要
改革开放三十年来,我国农村地区经济发展取得巨大成就,不仅农业生产连续多年屡创新高,而且农村二三产业也得到长足发展,为农村经济发展、农民增收作出了重要贡献。根据经济增长理论,促进一个地区或者国家经济增长的要素主要有劳动力、资本、技术、土地、人力资本等。但是,目前我国大部分农村地区除了劳动力要素以外,其他要素都处于比较匮乏状态,比如:农村资本被大量抽出农村地区、较高素质的劳动力大量流出农村地区、农民很难完全获得土地资本化的收益、乡镇企业增长及效益连续下降、农业经营组织形式改革进展缓慢等。
受我国分散的小农经营模式及收入水平的影响,农业中间投入在我国农户的生产经营投资中占有非常大的比重,通过我们测算,其占我国农村居民人均总收入的比重高达50%以上,是农户收入支出的重要项目。因此,农业中间投入是我国农村地区中最活跃的要素,它不仅作为提高农业产量的一般生产资料,而且通过农业生产率的提高及农资流通市场化改革的推进,还可以为农村经济发展所需要的其他要素的积累提供有力的支撑。但是,目前我国学界只是把农业中间投入放入农业生产资料来综合研究,或者是对农业中间投入其中的几个要素进行单独分析,没有对农业中间投入在我国的发展现状、对农村经济发展的影响机理、影响其投入的因素及存在的问题进行比较综合的考察。在这样一种背景下,对我国农业中间投入相关问题的研究就显得非常必要。
本文在研究过程中首先描述了我国目前农业中间投入的发展现状,主要是从全国总体水平和省际时间面板数据两个角度展开的。农业中间投入作为重要的农业生产资料自建国以来就一直受到政府的重视,并随着市场化体制改革的推进,实现了农业生产资料流通体制市场化改革由强制性改革向诱致性改革的转变,有效地保证了我国农业生产的需求。通过分析,我们总结出我国农业中间投入的发展情况主要有以下几个特点:农业中间投入实际投入量呈现连年增加的趋势,但受价格上涨过快影响,2008年出现实际减少的情况;在农林牧渔四部门中,农牧两个部门占比最大,并且近两年牧业的占比已经超过农业占比,成为中间投入消耗最大部门;物质消耗在总投入中占比高达85%,但是近年来生产性服务支出增长迅速,增速超过其他所有要素,说明我国农业生产现代化水平不断提高;农业中间投入的地区差异基本与地区经济发展水平相关,但是也存在特殊情况,即政府在增加农业中间投入方面也起着非常重要的作用。
农业中间投入对农业生产的促进左右已经毋庸置疑,但是其对整个农村经济的增长是否也具有积极作用呢?本文通过理论分析提出了农业中间投入是农村地区经济增长的重要支撑性要素的理论假设,并通过对我国农村地区的发展现状进行了经验性分析,发现促进地区经济增长的资本、人力资本、制度改进在农村地区都比较匮乏,并且农民获得土地资本化收益的权益也无法得到保障。但是,农业中间投入却是农村经济中最活跃的要素,占农民收入的比例达到一般半以上。因此,本部分对农业中间投入对我国农村地区经济发展促进作用机理进行了分析,发现其对农村经济起到有力的支撑作用,即:农业中间投入通过投入量的增加及科技含量的提高,使劳动生产率及土地产出率都大大提高,从而可以释放出更多劳动力及土地用于其他产业的发展;通过有效保证粮食供应,使农民根据市场需求对种养结构进行调整成为可能,促进了农业产业结构调整及农业产业化的发展;流通体制市场化改革也为当地农民经营农业中间投入提供了机会,增加了农民非农就业机会等等。本文还利用新古典经济增长模型及面板数据分析方法对这一假设进行了验证,并得出了支持本文研究假设的实证结果。
农业中间投入在农村经济发展中发挥着重要支撑作用,因此我们还需要对影响其投入的因素进行分析,从而可以让我们更好地利用这一要素。本文分别考察了农民收入、农资价格、农业集约化程度及农业生产结构四个因素对农业中间投入的影响,发现受这四个要素在我国发展现状的影响,未来我国农业中间投入量仍有增长的空间。在此需要说明的一个问题是,农村经济发展是农民收入的基础,但是受二元体制的影响,农民在农村经济发展中并不能主动参与收入分配,农民收入增长与农村经济发展并不同步,因此,研究农民收入对中间投入的影响并不会与中间投入对农村经济发展的影响形成相互证明的矛盾。
农业中间投入目前在我国存在的主要问题及面临的新挑战也是需要我们进行分析的。我们利用数据包络分析方法对我国31个省份的农业中间投入利用效率进行了相对性测算,得出我国大部分省份都存在着利用无效率的结论,并且在目前的生产条件下,相当部分省份存在这规模效益递减的情况。我们还对目前我国农业生产资料流通市场的现状及存在的问题进行了分析,找出了需要改进的地方。最后我们还对低碳经济对我国农业及农业中间投入的影响进行了分析,认为如果我们应对得当,其对我国农业现代化的实现也是一次机遇。
最后,本文针对前面的分析结论提出了相应的对策建议,主要包括:通过提高农民自主参与收入分配的能力来切实提高农民收入;通过建立农资价格稳定调控机制、促进基层经销模式创新及加强监管部门协作等促使农资市场进一步完善;通过推广科技含量高的技术及产品、推动农业科技的重大突破、探索精准农业模式等措施提高农业中间投入的利用效率;积极探索应对低碳经济的措施,努力将挑战转变为机遇,实现农业生产的现代化,进一步促进农村经济的繁荣。需要说明的一点是,关于农业中间投入价格的政策建议包含在了完善农资市场的建议中;关于农业生产结构的对策则包含在提高农业收入的对策中,即通过调整生产结构来增加农民收入水平;关于农业集约化的问题,由于前人研究成果已经相当丰富,并且我国正在稳步推进中,因此本文没有就此提出政策建议。
化肥作为农业中间投入中最要的要素之一,在我国农业生产资料中具有重要地位,也是我国政府非常关注的领域之一。本文通过案例分析的方式,对世界化肥生产及消费趋势,我国化肥工业发展历史及现状,以及对我国农村经济发展的影响进行了全面分析。通过案例分析,可以更加直观地对我国农业中间投入的发展现状、对农村经济的影响及存在的问题有一个全面的了解,从而能够促进农业中间投入更好地发展。
With the reform and opening up in the past three decades, the economic development of rural areas has made considerable progress, and not only the agriculture production has been made records for many years, but also other industries have gotten rapid growth, which has made an important contribution to the rural economic development and farmers’income growth. According to the theories of economic growth, the main promotion factors of economic includes labor, capital, technology, land, and human capital. However, in addition to the labor, other factors are in relatively poor condition in our most rural areas. For example, a large number of capital and high quality labor have been out of the rural areas; farmers are difficult to get the full benefits of the land capitalization; the reform of agriculture management organization progresses slowly.
Under the influence of dispersed small-scale agricultural organization model and low income level, agriculture intermediate inputs occupies a very large proportion of agricultural investment, by our estimates, its share in total income per capital of farmer is as high as 50%. Therefore, it is the most active factor in rural economy, it is not only as general material to increase agriculture production, but also provides strong support for the accumulation of other economic development factors. However, current scholars just look at agriculture intemediate inputs as general production input, or they only study one element of agriculture intemediate inputs. At present, we have not comprehensively invstigated on agriculture intemediate inputs, including: status; impact mechanism on rural economic development; factors affecting their investment and their own problems. In this context, it is very necessary to study those issues.
We first stduy its development status, which is from two perspectives: the overall level of contry and time/panel data of provinces. since the founding of the People's republic of China, our government has always attached attention to the agriculture intermediate inputs as the important agricultural production input, and with the advance of market-oriented reform, the way of its circulation system marketization reform have realized from mandatory change to included change. It has the following characteristics: the actual amount shows an increasing trend year by year, but in the impact of price soaring, it increased in 2008; in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery sectors, the share of agriculture and forestry is the largest, and forestry’s share has exceeded agriculture’s in the past two years; material inputs account about 85%, but the share of production services inrease rapidly in recent years, faster than all other factors; regional differences and regional economic development level have a significant correlation, but government also plays a very importtant role in increasing inputs.
It has no doubt about the positive effect of agriculture intermediate inputs to agriculture production, does it have the effect to the rural economy? In this paper, we analyze the status of rural economy growth factors, and find that main factors are in relatively poor condition in our most rural areas, but intermediate inputs is the most active factor, which share in total income per capital of farmer is as high as 50%. Therefore, we study the mechanism of intermediate inputs to promote rural economic development. The conclusion shows: by increasing inputs and improving technological level, it improves the land and labor productivity, which can realse more land and labor to support economic growth; through effectively ensuring grain supply, it provides the possibility of pushing farmer to adjust planting and cultivating structure, which promotes the adjustment of agriculutre structure and agriculture industrialization; its circulation system marketization reform provides non-agricultural employment opportunities. In this part, we also use neoclassical economic growth model and panel data model to test our theory hypothesis, and the conclusion is positive.
Agriculture intermediate inputs plays important role in rural economic growth, to make better use of it, we should analyse the factors which affect its application. We examine the effct of farmer income, agriculture inputs price, agricultural intensification and agricultural production structure to intermediate inputs use. It shows that inputs also has increasing room under the influence of these four factors development status. It should be noted that rural economic growth is the basis of farmer income increasing, but in our country, they are not synchronized, so it is not contradictory to study the income effect to inputs.
We also analyse the problems,challenges and opportunities of agriculture intermediate inputs in China. Firstly, we apply Data Envelopment Analysis model estimulate the efficiecy of 31 provinces, it shows that the most provinces are inefficiency, and are in returns to scale decreasing condition ueder present production status. We analyse the circulation market of inputs, and identify the problems and areas needed to improve. Finally, we study the impacet of low-carbon economy on agriculture and agriculture intermediate inputs. We consider that if we resovle properly, it also can be transformed into a great opportunity.
Finally, according to the previous conclusion, we put forward the corresponding suggestions: effectively increasing the income of farmers by improving their ability to participate in the distribution of income indepently; by establishing agricultre inputs price stabilization mechanism etc. to further improve agriculture inputs market; improving usage efficiency by promoting high technology inputs, stimulating major technological breakthroughs and exploring precision agriculture model etc.; actively facing the low-carbon economy, trying to transform the challenge to opportunity.
Fertilizer is one of the most important elements of agriculture intermediate inputs, and our governmet is very concerned about it. By way of case study, we analysize the world and our country fertilizer production and consumption status. By this way, we can better understader our country’s agriculture intermediate inputs status, fuction and so on, and promte it better development.
受我国分散的小农经营模式及收入水平的影响,农业中间投入在我国农户的生产经营投资中占有非常大的比重,通过我们测算,其占我国农村居民人均总收入的比重高达50%以上,是农户收入支出的重要项目。因此,农业中间投入是我国农村地区中最活跃的要素,它不仅作为提高农业产量的一般生产资料,而且通过农业生产率的提高及农资流通市场化改革的推进,还可以为农村经济发展所需要的其他要素的积累提供有力的支撑。但是,目前我国学界只是把农业中间投入放入农业生产资料来综合研究,或者是对农业中间投入其中的几个要素进行单独分析,没有对农业中间投入在我国的发展现状、对农村经济发展的影响机理、影响其投入的因素及存在的问题进行比较综合的考察。在这样一种背景下,对我国农业中间投入相关问题的研究就显得非常必要。
本文在研究过程中首先描述了我国目前农业中间投入的发展现状,主要是从全国总体水平和省际时间面板数据两个角度展开的。农业中间投入作为重要的农业生产资料自建国以来就一直受到政府的重视,并随着市场化体制改革的推进,实现了农业生产资料流通体制市场化改革由强制性改革向诱致性改革的转变,有效地保证了我国农业生产的需求。通过分析,我们总结出我国农业中间投入的发展情况主要有以下几个特点:农业中间投入实际投入量呈现连年增加的趋势,但受价格上涨过快影响,2008年出现实际减少的情况;在农林牧渔四部门中,农牧两个部门占比最大,并且近两年牧业的占比已经超过农业占比,成为中间投入消耗最大部门;物质消耗在总投入中占比高达85%,但是近年来生产性服务支出增长迅速,增速超过其他所有要素,说明我国农业生产现代化水平不断提高;农业中间投入的地区差异基本与地区经济发展水平相关,但是也存在特殊情况,即政府在增加农业中间投入方面也起着非常重要的作用。
农业中间投入对农业生产的促进左右已经毋庸置疑,但是其对整个农村经济的增长是否也具有积极作用呢?本文通过理论分析提出了农业中间投入是农村地区经济增长的重要支撑性要素的理论假设,并通过对我国农村地区的发展现状进行了经验性分析,发现促进地区经济增长的资本、人力资本、制度改进在农村地区都比较匮乏,并且农民获得土地资本化收益的权益也无法得到保障。但是,农业中间投入却是农村经济中最活跃的要素,占农民收入的比例达到一般半以上。因此,本部分对农业中间投入对我国农村地区经济发展促进作用机理进行了分析,发现其对农村经济起到有力的支撑作用,即:农业中间投入通过投入量的增加及科技含量的提高,使劳动生产率及土地产出率都大大提高,从而可以释放出更多劳动力及土地用于其他产业的发展;通过有效保证粮食供应,使农民根据市场需求对种养结构进行调整成为可能,促进了农业产业结构调整及农业产业化的发展;流通体制市场化改革也为当地农民经营农业中间投入提供了机会,增加了农民非农就业机会等等。本文还利用新古典经济增长模型及面板数据分析方法对这一假设进行了验证,并得出了支持本文研究假设的实证结果。
农业中间投入在农村经济发展中发挥着重要支撑作用,因此我们还需要对影响其投入的因素进行分析,从而可以让我们更好地利用这一要素。本文分别考察了农民收入、农资价格、农业集约化程度及农业生产结构四个因素对农业中间投入的影响,发现受这四个要素在我国发展现状的影响,未来我国农业中间投入量仍有增长的空间。在此需要说明的一个问题是,农村经济发展是农民收入的基础,但是受二元体制的影响,农民在农村经济发展中并不能主动参与收入分配,农民收入增长与农村经济发展并不同步,因此,研究农民收入对中间投入的影响并不会与中间投入对农村经济发展的影响形成相互证明的矛盾。
农业中间投入目前在我国存在的主要问题及面临的新挑战也是需要我们进行分析的。我们利用数据包络分析方法对我国31个省份的农业中间投入利用效率进行了相对性测算,得出我国大部分省份都存在着利用无效率的结论,并且在目前的生产条件下,相当部分省份存在这规模效益递减的情况。我们还对目前我国农业生产资料流通市场的现状及存在的问题进行了分析,找出了需要改进的地方。最后我们还对低碳经济对我国农业及农业中间投入的影响进行了分析,认为如果我们应对得当,其对我国农业现代化的实现也是一次机遇。
最后,本文针对前面的分析结论提出了相应的对策建议,主要包括:通过提高农民自主参与收入分配的能力来切实提高农民收入;通过建立农资价格稳定调控机制、促进基层经销模式创新及加强监管部门协作等促使农资市场进一步完善;通过推广科技含量高的技术及产品、推动农业科技的重大突破、探索精准农业模式等措施提高农业中间投入的利用效率;积极探索应对低碳经济的措施,努力将挑战转变为机遇,实现农业生产的现代化,进一步促进农村经济的繁荣。需要说明的一点是,关于农业中间投入价格的政策建议包含在了完善农资市场的建议中;关于农业生产结构的对策则包含在提高农业收入的对策中,即通过调整生产结构来增加农民收入水平;关于农业集约化的问题,由于前人研究成果已经相当丰富,并且我国正在稳步推进中,因此本文没有就此提出政策建议。
化肥作为农业中间投入中最要的要素之一,在我国农业生产资料中具有重要地位,也是我国政府非常关注的领域之一。本文通过案例分析的方式,对世界化肥生产及消费趋势,我国化肥工业发展历史及现状,以及对我国农村经济发展的影响进行了全面分析。通过案例分析,可以更加直观地对我国农业中间投入的发展现状、对农村经济的影响及存在的问题有一个全面的了解,从而能够促进农业中间投入更好地发展。
With the reform and opening up in the past three decades, the economic development of rural areas has made considerable progress, and not only the agriculture production has been made records for many years, but also other industries have gotten rapid growth, which has made an important contribution to the rural economic development and farmers’income growth. According to the theories of economic growth, the main promotion factors of economic includes labor, capital, technology, land, and human capital. However, in addition to the labor, other factors are in relatively poor condition in our most rural areas. For example, a large number of capital and high quality labor have been out of the rural areas; farmers are difficult to get the full benefits of the land capitalization; the reform of agriculture management organization progresses slowly.
Under the influence of dispersed small-scale agricultural organization model and low income level, agriculture intermediate inputs occupies a very large proportion of agricultural investment, by our estimates, its share in total income per capital of farmer is as high as 50%. Therefore, it is the most active factor in rural economy, it is not only as general material to increase agriculture production, but also provides strong support for the accumulation of other economic development factors. However, current scholars just look at agriculture intemediate inputs as general production input, or they only study one element of agriculture intemediate inputs. At present, we have not comprehensively invstigated on agriculture intemediate inputs, including: status; impact mechanism on rural economic development; factors affecting their investment and their own problems. In this context, it is very necessary to study those issues.
We first stduy its development status, which is from two perspectives: the overall level of contry and time/panel data of provinces. since the founding of the People's republic of China, our government has always attached attention to the agriculture intermediate inputs as the important agricultural production input, and with the advance of market-oriented reform, the way of its circulation system marketization reform have realized from mandatory change to included change. It has the following characteristics: the actual amount shows an increasing trend year by year, but in the impact of price soaring, it increased in 2008; in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery sectors, the share of agriculture and forestry is the largest, and forestry’s share has exceeded agriculture’s in the past two years; material inputs account about 85%, but the share of production services inrease rapidly in recent years, faster than all other factors; regional differences and regional economic development level have a significant correlation, but government also plays a very importtant role in increasing inputs.
It has no doubt about the positive effect of agriculture intermediate inputs to agriculture production, does it have the effect to the rural economy? In this paper, we analyze the status of rural economy growth factors, and find that main factors are in relatively poor condition in our most rural areas, but intermediate inputs is the most active factor, which share in total income per capital of farmer is as high as 50%. Therefore, we study the mechanism of intermediate inputs to promote rural economic development. The conclusion shows: by increasing inputs and improving technological level, it improves the land and labor productivity, which can realse more land and labor to support economic growth; through effectively ensuring grain supply, it provides the possibility of pushing farmer to adjust planting and cultivating structure, which promotes the adjustment of agriculutre structure and agriculture industrialization; its circulation system marketization reform provides non-agricultural employment opportunities. In this part, we also use neoclassical economic growth model and panel data model to test our theory hypothesis, and the conclusion is positive.
Agriculture intermediate inputs plays important role in rural economic growth, to make better use of it, we should analyse the factors which affect its application. We examine the effct of farmer income, agriculture inputs price, agricultural intensification and agricultural production structure to intermediate inputs use. It shows that inputs also has increasing room under the influence of these four factors development status. It should be noted that rural economic growth is the basis of farmer income increasing, but in our country, they are not synchronized, so it is not contradictory to study the income effect to inputs.
We also analyse the problems,challenges and opportunities of agriculture intermediate inputs in China. Firstly, we apply Data Envelopment Analysis model estimulate the efficiecy of 31 provinces, it shows that the most provinces are inefficiency, and are in returns to scale decreasing condition ueder present production status. We analyse the circulation market of inputs, and identify the problems and areas needed to improve. Finally, we study the impacet of low-carbon economy on agriculture and agriculture intermediate inputs. We consider that if we resovle properly, it also can be transformed into a great opportunity.
Finally, according to the previous conclusion, we put forward the corresponding suggestions: effectively increasing the income of farmers by improving their ability to participate in the distribution of income indepently; by establishing agricultre inputs price stabilization mechanism etc. to further improve agriculture inputs market; improving usage efficiency by promoting high technology inputs, stimulating major technological breakthroughs and exploring precision agriculture model etc.; actively facing the low-carbon economy, trying to transform the challenge to opportunity.
Fertilizer is one of the most important elements of agriculture intermediate inputs, and our governmet is very concerned about it. By way of case study, we analysize the world and our country fertilizer production and consumption status. By this way, we can better understader our country’s agriculture intermediate inputs status, fuction and so on, and promte it better development.
引文
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1罗伯特·M·索洛.增长理论——一种解释. (冯健译).北京:中国财政经济出版社, 2004,11: 5
1郭剑雄,曹昭义.钱纳理结构转变中的农业发展观.山东工程学院学报. 2000,14(1): 59~62
1约翰·伊特韦尔.新帕尔格雷夫经济学大辞典.北京:经济科学出版社,1996
1道格拉斯·C·诺斯.经济史中的结构与变迁.[陈郁,罗华平译]上海:上海人民出版社,1994
1本部分根据林毅夫先生的读书笔记《关于制度变迁的经济学理论——诱致性变迁于强制性变迁》一文整理
1道格拉斯·C·诺斯.制度、制度变迁和经济绩效.[杭行译]上海:上海三联出版社,2008
1《中国共产党第十一届中央委员会第三次全体会议公报》,1978.12
1道格拉斯·诺斯.经济史中的结构与变迁.上海:上海三联出版社,1994
1杨晓维.产权、政府与经济市场化.中国制度变迁的案例研究(第一期)上海:上海人民出版社,1996
2乌跃良.中国农业生产增长因素投入产出分析.经济与管理.2008.12:5~7
1 H.钱纳里.工业化和经济增长的比较研究.上海:上海人民出版社,1995吴奇,王松宝译
2叶兴庆.工业化中期建设现代农业必须科学处理的几个关系.农业经济问题,2008.1:12~47
1林毅夫.制度、技术与中国农业增长[M].上海三联书店、上海人民出版社,2005:63~92
1熊启泉,中国农村国内生产总值(GDP)的估计:理论、方法及实证测算,统计研究,1999.1:29~34
1 Engle, Robert F. and C. W. J. Granger. Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing, Econometrica, 1987, 55: 251~276
1郭晓东,王叔文,吴文恒.改革开放以来我国农村经济发展省区差异的演变分析.开发研究, 2009,06:77~80
2唐平.农村居民收入差距的变动及影响因素分析.管理世界. 2006,05:69~75
3孙慧钧.我国农村区域间收入差距构成的实证分析.统计研究.2007, 11:42~47
4李志慧.我国区域农村经济差异及其影响因素分析.西北农林科技大学.2009
1本部分根据高铁梅的《计量经济分析方法与建模》中关于面板数据模型的内容整理所得
1陈汉圣,吕涛.农业生产资料价格变动对农户的影响.中国农村观察, 1997,02:14~17
2刘承芳,张林秀,樊胜根.农户农业生产性投资影响因素研究——对江苏六个县市的市政分析.中国农村观察, 2002,04: 35~80
3茹敬贤.农户施肥行为及影响因素分析——以河南新乡县为例.浙江大学,2008
4张举钢,时学成.影响农户农业投入的市政分析与对策.石家庄经济学院学报.2008,04: 61~64
1俞立平.企业性质与创新效率——基于国有大中型工业企业的研究.数量经济技术经济研究, 2007,(5):108~114
1刘新卫.农业资源利用效率研究综述[J].国土资源情报,2007.01:40~45
1陈建梅.我国农业生产资料市场特点、问题与对策.农场经济管理,2007.03
1中国可持续发展战略研究组.中国可持续发展战略报告-探索中国特色的低碳道路.北京:科学出版社,2009
1陆景陵,植物营养学,中国农业大学出版社,2009.01
1张道勇.世界化肥生产和消费趋势.甘肃农业科学, 1981,(3): 1~4
1 International Fertilizer Industry Association, Short-Term Fertilizer Outlook 2010-2011[R], 2010.12
1王激清,马文奇.五大因素影响化肥氮磷钾消费比例合理化.中国农资.2006,06
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