区域循环经济发展机制研究
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摘要
循环经济理念的产生,是源于人类对工业革命以来出现的生态危机和资源问题的深刻认识和自我反省,其人文响应的重要表征就是在区域层面的发展实践。自20世纪90年代循环经济理念被引入中国后,其研究得到了进一步的拓展,政府、企业等也都积极采取有关措施,以期望加快实践步伐,推动循环经济在区域层面上的具体深入。但由于指导理论的单薄,使得区域循环经济的发展实践面临着诸多问题,因此,构建关于区域循环经济发展的理论体系和研究框架,是目前区域循环经济研究面临的重要基本命题之一。
本文在对循环经济脉络梳理和现有成果批判继承的基础上,以区域循环经济发展理论体系架构为目标导向,以广义物质流管理为基本分析手段,基于全过程分析的角度,对区域循环经济的发展机制进行了系统的逻辑推演和理论研究。本研究的具体内容摘要如下:
1)关于循环经济的脉络梳理与内涵特征。
本文对循环经济的概念内涵进行了分析和修正,进而从人类历史发展过程的角度,挖掘了西方思想体系与循环经济理论的内在逻辑关联,对其思想根源、产生背景进行了分类梳理和整合,进而分析阐述了中国循环经济研究的特色元素。
2)关于区域循环经济的基本问题研究。
本文研究并强调了区域循环经济的“区域性”、“发展性”和“系统性”特点,认为区域循环经济框架组成具有多重性和复合性。基于全过程的视角,在理论上明确了区域循环经济发展过程的机制组成,即:驱动机制,规划机制,运行机制,反馈机制和调控机制。
3)关于区域循环经济发展机制的具体研究。
驱动机制:基于广义物质流管理分析方法,建立了驱动机制的概念分析模型,识别和阐明了区域循环经济发展的驱动来源及其相互作用机理。最后,在结合问卷调查和结构分解分析等方法的基础上,对区域循环经济发展的微观驱动机制进行了局部的定量和比较分析。
规划机制:在实践经验总结和理论逻辑推演的基础上,对区域循环经济发展规划的基本原理、编制理念、框架结构,以及规划过程进行了辩驳和阐释,进而构建了关于区域循环经济发展的规划体系,以试图解决区域循环经济发展中面临的科学规划问题。最后,以陕西汉中为研究案例,对区域循环经济规划机制的有关内容进行了解释和佐证。
运行机制:研究界定了区域循环经济系统的运行载体,并对其运行机理进行了研究阐释,建立了有关函数概念方程,特别指出系统运行的核心目标是“同步解耦”。基于情景分析方法,对甘肃的“能源消耗-经济发展-环境影响”之间的耦度关系进行了实证研究,得出了有启示性的结论。
反馈机制:分析了反馈机制在区域循环经济发展中的作用与重要意义,对区域循环经济发展中的反馈机制进行了理论设计,将政府、企业、公众界定为反馈对象,理论构建了区域循环经济信息交流的概念平台;基于元数据统计和最低限度原则,对信息内容进行了分层次预设计。
调控机制:阐释了区域循环经济发展中的调控作用机理、形态,以及模块组成;构建了区域循环经济发展调控的一般应用检验模型,并从调控目标的科学性检验、调控指令的社会成本预检验等方面提出并解释了应用检验过程。
总而言之,本研究构建了区域循环经济发展机制的基本理论体系和研究框架,拓展了物质流管理的科学内涵,提出了“矢量流”、“传输者”、“权限检验”等新概念,为指导区域循环经济的发展提供了理论基础和参考指南,在实现循环经济理论与具体实践相结合的方向上做出了积极的创新尝试。
The produce of Circular Economy (abbr. CE) theory is due to the understood and auto criticism of the human beings to ecological crisis and resources scarcity appeared continually after the Industrial Revolution. The key token of its human response is the idiographic practice on the regional level. Since the concept of CE was introduced into China in 1990s, the outcomes of the research concerning its theory and practice has achieved to further. The policies and methods made by the government and enterprises respectively in China are both taken to accelerate the circular economic development, particularly on the regional level. However, because of the theoretical inadequacy, the circular economic development on regional level is facing series barriers, thus, the issue of establishing an applied scientific theory to guide the regional CE development is being of an important proposition.
Based on the comprehensive ordering to CE theory and the critical inheritance to currently research outcomes, the oriented goal of this research, which takes the generalized material flow management as a basic methodology, from the viewpoint of mechanism study and whole process analysis as well, is trying to establish an academic framework linking to the regional circular economic development. The contents of this research are summarized as following:
1) Characters and theoretic skeleton of circular economy.
This thesis firstly analyzed the characters of CE and corrected its concepts partially, and excavated the logic relationship between western ideological system and CE theory, followed by the integrated skeleton to its ideological roots and developmental background. At last, we clarified the distinctive features of CE research and practice in China.
2) Fundamental problems of regional circular economy.
This thesis studied and emphasized the features of regional circular economy which are "regional, developmental, and systemic", and the characters of its framework structure are multiplicity and complex. Based on the research point initiated to the whole process analysis, this research identified and sorted the developmental procedures, and creatively categorized the components of regional CE developmental mechanism as: Driving, Panning, Operating, Feedback, Regulating & Redirection.
3) Details research on the developmental mechanism.
Driving Mechanism: Based on the methodology called generalized material flow management, this thesis established a conceptual model to identify and research the source of driving force and the interaction mechanism. At last, we explained and proved the micro driving mechanism through the cases study based on the questionnaire research and quantitatively analysis.
Planning Mechanism: Based on the summing-up of research experiences and the academic logical inference, this research revealed the basic principles, compiling ideals, frame structure, and compiling process of master planning for CE development, which is trying to solve the problems of master planning' compiling. Finally, Hanzhong city is studied as a reference to explain the planning mechanism theory.
Operating Mechanism: The operational carriers and its operational mechanism of the regional CE development were defined following by establishing the function equations which could be useful for understanding the machanism, and we also pointed that the operating goal is to achieve the synchronous decoupling. Based on the scenario analysis, the empirical study on the coupling relation among "energy consumption - economic development - environmental impacts" in Gansu is taken and the outcomes are revelatory.
Feedback Mechanism: The role and significance of the feedback in regional circular economic development are analyzed, following by the conceptual designing to the feedback mechanism. This research firstly defined the government, enterprise, and the public as the feedback objectives respectively, proposed a conceptive information communication platform later, and finally pre-designed the information contents according to the ideas of meta-data and minimum static.
Regulating and Redirection Mechanism: This research studied the mechanism, modality, and the components of the regulation and redirection control in regional CE development, followed by establishing a generalized applied verification model in order to perfect the development of regional CE development. Of course, this research also clarified the verify processes which categorized as scientific verification, social cost verification, and so on.
In conclusion, this research found an academic framework concerning the regional circular economic development, and extended the concept of the material flow material management and its application domain as well, we also proposed innovative ideas on the regional CE theory such as "Vector Flow Management", "Transfers", "Permission Verification", etc. The outcomes of this research is initiated to provide an academic basis and guideline for the circular economic practice on regional level, and tried innovatively to combine the theory and practice in order to accelerate the regional circular economic development in China.
本文在对循环经济脉络梳理和现有成果批判继承的基础上,以区域循环经济发展理论体系架构为目标导向,以广义物质流管理为基本分析手段,基于全过程分析的角度,对区域循环经济的发展机制进行了系统的逻辑推演和理论研究。本研究的具体内容摘要如下:
1)关于循环经济的脉络梳理与内涵特征。
本文对循环经济的概念内涵进行了分析和修正,进而从人类历史发展过程的角度,挖掘了西方思想体系与循环经济理论的内在逻辑关联,对其思想根源、产生背景进行了分类梳理和整合,进而分析阐述了中国循环经济研究的特色元素。
2)关于区域循环经济的基本问题研究。
本文研究并强调了区域循环经济的“区域性”、“发展性”和“系统性”特点,认为区域循环经济框架组成具有多重性和复合性。基于全过程的视角,在理论上明确了区域循环经济发展过程的机制组成,即:驱动机制,规划机制,运行机制,反馈机制和调控机制。
3)关于区域循环经济发展机制的具体研究。
驱动机制:基于广义物质流管理分析方法,建立了驱动机制的概念分析模型,识别和阐明了区域循环经济发展的驱动来源及其相互作用机理。最后,在结合问卷调查和结构分解分析等方法的基础上,对区域循环经济发展的微观驱动机制进行了局部的定量和比较分析。
规划机制:在实践经验总结和理论逻辑推演的基础上,对区域循环经济发展规划的基本原理、编制理念、框架结构,以及规划过程进行了辩驳和阐释,进而构建了关于区域循环经济发展的规划体系,以试图解决区域循环经济发展中面临的科学规划问题。最后,以陕西汉中为研究案例,对区域循环经济规划机制的有关内容进行了解释和佐证。
运行机制:研究界定了区域循环经济系统的运行载体,并对其运行机理进行了研究阐释,建立了有关函数概念方程,特别指出系统运行的核心目标是“同步解耦”。基于情景分析方法,对甘肃的“能源消耗-经济发展-环境影响”之间的耦度关系进行了实证研究,得出了有启示性的结论。
反馈机制:分析了反馈机制在区域循环经济发展中的作用与重要意义,对区域循环经济发展中的反馈机制进行了理论设计,将政府、企业、公众界定为反馈对象,理论构建了区域循环经济信息交流的概念平台;基于元数据统计和最低限度原则,对信息内容进行了分层次预设计。
调控机制:阐释了区域循环经济发展中的调控作用机理、形态,以及模块组成;构建了区域循环经济发展调控的一般应用检验模型,并从调控目标的科学性检验、调控指令的社会成本预检验等方面提出并解释了应用检验过程。
总而言之,本研究构建了区域循环经济发展机制的基本理论体系和研究框架,拓展了物质流管理的科学内涵,提出了“矢量流”、“传输者”、“权限检验”等新概念,为指导区域循环经济的发展提供了理论基础和参考指南,在实现循环经济理论与具体实践相结合的方向上做出了积极的创新尝试。
The produce of Circular Economy (abbr. CE) theory is due to the understood and auto criticism of the human beings to ecological crisis and resources scarcity appeared continually after the Industrial Revolution. The key token of its human response is the idiographic practice on the regional level. Since the concept of CE was introduced into China in 1990s, the outcomes of the research concerning its theory and practice has achieved to further. The policies and methods made by the government and enterprises respectively in China are both taken to accelerate the circular economic development, particularly on the regional level. However, because of the theoretical inadequacy, the circular economic development on regional level is facing series barriers, thus, the issue of establishing an applied scientific theory to guide the regional CE development is being of an important proposition.
Based on the comprehensive ordering to CE theory and the critical inheritance to currently research outcomes, the oriented goal of this research, which takes the generalized material flow management as a basic methodology, from the viewpoint of mechanism study and whole process analysis as well, is trying to establish an academic framework linking to the regional circular economic development. The contents of this research are summarized as following:
1) Characters and theoretic skeleton of circular economy.
This thesis firstly analyzed the characters of CE and corrected its concepts partially, and excavated the logic relationship between western ideological system and CE theory, followed by the integrated skeleton to its ideological roots and developmental background. At last, we clarified the distinctive features of CE research and practice in China.
2) Fundamental problems of regional circular economy.
This thesis studied and emphasized the features of regional circular economy which are "regional, developmental, and systemic", and the characters of its framework structure are multiplicity and complex. Based on the research point initiated to the whole process analysis, this research identified and sorted the developmental procedures, and creatively categorized the components of regional CE developmental mechanism as: Driving, Panning, Operating, Feedback, Regulating & Redirection.
3) Details research on the developmental mechanism.
Driving Mechanism: Based on the methodology called generalized material flow management, this thesis established a conceptual model to identify and research the source of driving force and the interaction mechanism. At last, we explained and proved the micro driving mechanism through the cases study based on the questionnaire research and quantitatively analysis.
Planning Mechanism: Based on the summing-up of research experiences and the academic logical inference, this research revealed the basic principles, compiling ideals, frame structure, and compiling process of master planning for CE development, which is trying to solve the problems of master planning' compiling. Finally, Hanzhong city is studied as a reference to explain the planning mechanism theory.
Operating Mechanism: The operational carriers and its operational mechanism of the regional CE development were defined following by establishing the function equations which could be useful for understanding the machanism, and we also pointed that the operating goal is to achieve the synchronous decoupling. Based on the scenario analysis, the empirical study on the coupling relation among "energy consumption - economic development - environmental impacts" in Gansu is taken and the outcomes are revelatory.
Feedback Mechanism: The role and significance of the feedback in regional circular economic development are analyzed, following by the conceptual designing to the feedback mechanism. This research firstly defined the government, enterprise, and the public as the feedback objectives respectively, proposed a conceptive information communication platform later, and finally pre-designed the information contents according to the ideas of meta-data and minimum static.
Regulating and Redirection Mechanism: This research studied the mechanism, modality, and the components of the regulation and redirection control in regional CE development, followed by establishing a generalized applied verification model in order to perfect the development of regional CE development. Of course, this research also clarified the verify processes which categorized as scientific verification, social cost verification, and so on.
In conclusion, this research found an academic framework concerning the regional circular economic development, and extended the concept of the material flow material management and its application domain as well, we also proposed innovative ideas on the regional CE theory such as "Vector Flow Management", "Transfers", "Permission Verification", etc. The outcomes of this research is initiated to provide an academic basis and guideline for the circular economic practice on regional level, and tried innovatively to combine the theory and practice in order to accelerate the regional circular economic development in China.
引文
4德国联邦会议“人与环境保护”,1994,P.259.
6网络问卷访问地址:http://www.askform.cn/18973-29393.aspx:
9刘庆山,开发利用再生资源,缓解自然资源短缺[J],再生资源研究,1994,10,P5-7。
13 White L.Historical Roots of Our Ecological Crisis,Science,1967,155:1203-1207.
14巴里.康芒纳.封闭的循环-自然、人和技术[M].长春:吉林人民出版社,1997(中译本)。由于这本书触及到了西方国家最为敏感的社会问题,所以当这本书一问世,即在美国引起了极大的反响。《企业周刊》评论说,它是“自蕾彻尔·卡逊《寂静的春天》发表以来,有关环境的最好和最有挑战性的书之一”;《纽约时报》则认为,“如果下届美国总统只有时间读一本书,那么这本书就应该是《封闭的循环》”。
15罗马俱乐部网站:http://www.clubofrome.org/eng/home/,"The Limits to Growth - A Report to The Club of Rome(1972),by Donella H.Meadows,Dennis I.Meadows,Jorgen ganders,William W.Behrens Ⅲ."
16 http://www.garretthardinsociety.org/articles/art_living_on_a_lifeboat.html
17产业机构委员会是日本国家贸易和工业部于20世纪60年代成立的独立咨询机构。
18“清洁生产”在不同的地区和国家有许多不同的但相近的提法,例如中国和欧洲的有关国家有时又称“无废工艺”、“无废生产”,日本多称“无公害工艺”,美国则定义为“废料最少化”、“污染预防”、“削废技术”。此外,还有“绿色工艺”、“生态工艺”、“再循环工艺”、“源削减”、“污染削减”等概念(张天柱,2008)。
19D.Pearce,R.K.Turner.(1989) ECONOMICS OF NATURAL RESOURCES AND THE ENVIRONMENT.Publisher:The Johns Hopkins University Press,Chapter 2·THE CIRCUlAR ECONOMY,PP40
20Naess A.Eclogogy,COMMUNITYAND LIFESTYLE.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1989.PP130.
21Andrew Maclaughlin,THE HEART OF DEEP ECOLOGY,quoted in George Sessions,“Introduction”to Part Two of Environmental Philosophy:From Animal Rights to Radical Ecology.
23检索时间:2009年1月20日。
24冯之浚.循环经济导论[M].北京:人民出版社.2004,P25l。
25丘兆逸.区域循环经济的成本-收益矛盾[J],统计与决策,2006,6:92-93.
26关于DSD双轨回收系统的描述,可以参考第二章的脉络梳理部分。
27关于此论述,请参考第二章中的循环经济特征分析部分。
29关于保障体系部分,有学者认为,区域循环经济的保障体系是指包含“水、能源、交通”在内的城市基础设施保障体系以及包含“生态环境建设、环境污染治理和自然灾害预防”在内的自然生态保障体系(季昆森,2003;张燕,2006;何东,2007;彭丽娜,2007),但是作者认为,他们更应当作为支撑体系内容,无独有偶的是,在诸多区域的循环经济发展规划中(诸如,甘肃,黑龙江,陕西汉中,等),规划设计人员都将“城市基础设施”和“环境保护”内容归入“支撑体系”部分,这也印证明了作者的观点。
30详见第四章的“区域循环经济发展的驱动机制”分折。
40数据来源:Environmental Data for Germany-Practicing Sustainability,Protecting Natural Resources and the Environment,2007 Edition,P54.
41世界银行将“企业社会责任”定义为“企业与关键利益相关者的关系、价值观、遵纪守法以及尊重人、社区和环境有关的政策和实践的集合。它是企业为改善利益相关者的生活质量而贡献于可持续发展的一种承诺”(Corporate social responsibility is the commitment of business to contribute to sustainable economic development by working with employees,their families,the local community and society at large to improve their lives in ways that are good for business and for development)。http://info.worldbank.org/ 术平均效应为0.04,总平均效应为0.26,三者综合作用表现为增量效应,导致这一阶段废弃物能值快速上升。第二阶段,三者的平均效应分别为:0.28,0.02,-0.24,总平均效应为0.06,小于第一阶段平均效因,故在此阶段废弃物能值增长较缓,主要影响因素为技术。第三阶段,三者的平均效应分别为:0.6,-0.003,-0.16,总平均效应为0.44.远远高于前两个阶段,导致废弃物能值在此期间快速增加。
49感谢“陕西汉中循环经济产业集聚区规划”、“甘肃临夏循环经济发展规划”、“甘肃循环经济发展规划”等项目组的全体成员,特别感谢张师弟子龙,逯师弟承鹏,郭师妹晓佳,张师妹伟伟在数据统计中给予的无私帮助和建议。
50关于问卷的发放数量、地点、渠道等,详见本文第一章第二节中的“2.1研宄手段”(P11)。
51公务员是指在政府中工作的人员,并以此表征区域循环经济系统的行为主体“政府”;社会公众是指除公务员和企业主以外的其他人员,表征区域循环经济发展系统中的“公众”;社会群体的概念是指包含公务员和社会公众在内的所有访问对象。在初始的纸质问卷统计中,由于选择“企业主”一栏的仅为4人,因此,为了便于分析统计,将该4份问卷视为无效问卷。
52数据来源:国家统计局,《中国人口统计年鉴-2006》。
59诸如《辽宁省发展循环经济试点方案》(2002),《甘肃嘉峪关循环经济发展规划》(2005),《浙江宁海县循环经济发展规划》(2006),等。
60诸如《江苏省生态省建设规划》(2004),《杭州市“十一五”循环经济发展规划》(2005),等。
61本图是在徐东先生的“中国现行规划体系的结构框架图”基础上修改拓展而成。徐东.关于中国现行规划体系的思考[J],经济问题探索,2008,10:181-185.
62在《中华人民共和国城乡规划法》中,并无“区域城镇体系规划”这一称呼。本文的区域城镇体系规划是指该特定区域内的城镇体系发展规划。
63国家发展和改革委、国家环保总局、国家统计局.《关于印发循环经济评价指标体系的通知》(发改环资[2007]1815号),2007年6月27日。
64江苏省人民政府.《江苏省人民政府关于印发江苏生态省建设规划纲要的通知》,苏政发[2004]106号,2004年12月20日。
65张凯,(2005).以科学发展观为统领,大力发展循环经济,努力建设具有山东特色的生态省[N],http://218.98.153.90/23/news/2005224142925.html
66赵英民,(2005).发展循环经济、建设生态贵阳[C].http://www.hwcc.com.cn/
67国家发展和改革委员会、国家环境保护总局、等,《关于组织开展循环经济示范试点(第二批)工作的通知》,发改环资[2007]3420号。
72关于该机理示意图的说明与解释,以及随后的有关函数关系(6.1)和(6.2)的研究成果,已于2008年发表:Xue Bing;Chen Xinspeng;Lu Hongyan;etc;(2008)Analysis of Transition Process from Waste Management towards Resource Management System.Int.Conf.Wirel.Commun.,Netw.Mob.Comput.,WiCOM,VII,PI-4.[DOI:10.1109/WICom.2008.2737]
75胡锦涛.<高举中国特色社会主义伟大旗帜 为夺取全面建设小康社会新胜利而奋斗-在中国共产党第十七次全国代表大会上的报告>,2007年10月15日。
79潜在排放系数、碳氧化率、平均低位发热量来源为“2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories(Volume 2:Energy)”。
80CO2排放量=A~*B~*C~*D~*44/12/10000(质量单位)或E=A~*B~*C~*D~*44/12/1000(体积单位):该计算公式采自于中国清洁发展机制网(httD://cdm.ccchina.gov.cn)。
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6网络问卷访问地址:http://www.askform.cn/18973-29393.aspx:
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14巴里.康芒纳.封闭的循环-自然、人和技术[M].长春:吉林人民出版社,1997(中译本)。由于这本书触及到了西方国家最为敏感的社会问题,所以当这本书一问世,即在美国引起了极大的反响。《企业周刊》评论说,它是“自蕾彻尔·卡逊《寂静的春天》发表以来,有关环境的最好和最有挑战性的书之一”;《纽约时报》则认为,“如果下届美国总统只有时间读一本书,那么这本书就应该是《封闭的循环》”。
15罗马俱乐部网站:http://www.clubofrome.org/eng/home/,"The Limits to Growth - A Report to The Club of Rome(1972),by Donella H.Meadows,Dennis I.Meadows,Jorgen ganders,William W.Behrens Ⅲ."
16 http://www.garretthardinsociety.org/articles/art_living_on_a_lifeboat.html
17产业机构委员会是日本国家贸易和工业部于20世纪60年代成立的独立咨询机构。
18“清洁生产”在不同的地区和国家有许多不同的但相近的提法,例如中国和欧洲的有关国家有时又称“无废工艺”、“无废生产”,日本多称“无公害工艺”,美国则定义为“废料最少化”、“污染预防”、“削废技术”。此外,还有“绿色工艺”、“生态工艺”、“再循环工艺”、“源削减”、“污染削减”等概念(张天柱,2008)。
19D.Pearce,R.K.Turner.(1989) ECONOMICS OF NATURAL RESOURCES AND THE ENVIRONMENT.Publisher:The Johns Hopkins University Press,Chapter 2·THE CIRCUlAR ECONOMY,PP40
20Naess A.Eclogogy,COMMUNITYAND LIFESTYLE.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1989.PP130.
21Andrew Maclaughlin,THE HEART OF DEEP ECOLOGY,quoted in George Sessions,“Introduction”to Part Two of Environmental Philosophy:From Animal Rights to Radical Ecology.
23检索时间:2009年1月20日。
24冯之浚.循环经济导论[M].北京:人民出版社.2004,P25l。
25丘兆逸.区域循环经济的成本-收益矛盾[J],统计与决策,2006,6:92-93.
26关于DSD双轨回收系统的描述,可以参考第二章的脉络梳理部分。
27关于此论述,请参考第二章中的循环经济特征分析部分。
29关于保障体系部分,有学者认为,区域循环经济的保障体系是指包含“水、能源、交通”在内的城市基础设施保障体系以及包含“生态环境建设、环境污染治理和自然灾害预防”在内的自然生态保障体系(季昆森,2003;张燕,2006;何东,2007;彭丽娜,2007),但是作者认为,他们更应当作为支撑体系内容,无独有偶的是,在诸多区域的循环经济发展规划中(诸如,甘肃,黑龙江,陕西汉中,等),规划设计人员都将“城市基础设施”和“环境保护”内容归入“支撑体系”部分,这也印证明了作者的观点。
30详见第四章的“区域循环经济发展的驱动机制”分折。
40数据来源:Environmental Data for Germany-Practicing Sustainability,Protecting Natural Resources and the Environment,2007 Edition,P54.
41世界银行将“企业社会责任”定义为“企业与关键利益相关者的关系、价值观、遵纪守法以及尊重人、社区和环境有关的政策和实践的集合。它是企业为改善利益相关者的生活质量而贡献于可持续发展的一种承诺”(Corporate social responsibility is the commitment of business to contribute to sustainable economic development by working with employees,their families,the local community and society at large to improve their lives in ways that are good for business and for development)。http://info.worldbank.org/ 术平均效应为0.04,总平均效应为0.26,三者综合作用表现为增量效应,导致这一阶段废弃物能值快速上升。第二阶段,三者的平均效应分别为:0.28,0.02,-0.24,总平均效应为0.06,小于第一阶段平均效因,故在此阶段废弃物能值增长较缓,主要影响因素为技术。第三阶段,三者的平均效应分别为:0.6,-0.003,-0.16,总平均效应为0.44.远远高于前两个阶段,导致废弃物能值在此期间快速增加。
49感谢“陕西汉中循环经济产业集聚区规划”、“甘肃临夏循环经济发展规划”、“甘肃循环经济发展规划”等项目组的全体成员,特别感谢张师弟子龙,逯师弟承鹏,郭师妹晓佳,张师妹伟伟在数据统计中给予的无私帮助和建议。
50关于问卷的发放数量、地点、渠道等,详见本文第一章第二节中的“2.1研宄手段”(P11)。
51公务员是指在政府中工作的人员,并以此表征区域循环经济系统的行为主体“政府”;社会公众是指除公务员和企业主以外的其他人员,表征区域循环经济发展系统中的“公众”;社会群体的概念是指包含公务员和社会公众在内的所有访问对象。在初始的纸质问卷统计中,由于选择“企业主”一栏的仅为4人,因此,为了便于分析统计,将该4份问卷视为无效问卷。
52数据来源:国家统计局,《中国人口统计年鉴-2006》。
59诸如《辽宁省发展循环经济试点方案》(2002),《甘肃嘉峪关循环经济发展规划》(2005),《浙江宁海县循环经济发展规划》(2006),等。
60诸如《江苏省生态省建设规划》(2004),《杭州市“十一五”循环经济发展规划》(2005),等。
61本图是在徐东先生的“中国现行规划体系的结构框架图”基础上修改拓展而成。徐东.关于中国现行规划体系的思考[J],经济问题探索,2008,10:181-185.
62在《中华人民共和国城乡规划法》中,并无“区域城镇体系规划”这一称呼。本文的区域城镇体系规划是指该特定区域内的城镇体系发展规划。
63国家发展和改革委、国家环保总局、国家统计局.《关于印发循环经济评价指标体系的通知》(发改环资[2007]1815号),2007年6月27日。
64江苏省人民政府.《江苏省人民政府关于印发江苏生态省建设规划纲要的通知》,苏政发[2004]106号,2004年12月20日。
65张凯,(2005).以科学发展观为统领,大力发展循环经济,努力建设具有山东特色的生态省[N],http://218.98.153.90/23/news/2005224142925.html
66赵英民,(2005).发展循环经济、建设生态贵阳[C].http://www.hwcc.com.cn/
67国家发展和改革委员会、国家环境保护总局、等,《关于组织开展循环经济示范试点(第二批)工作的通知》,发改环资[2007]3420号。
72关于该机理示意图的说明与解释,以及随后的有关函数关系(6.1)和(6.2)的研究成果,已于2008年发表:Xue Bing;Chen Xinspeng;Lu Hongyan;etc;(2008)Analysis of Transition Process from Waste Management towards Resource Management System.Int.Conf.Wirel.Commun.,Netw.Mob.Comput.,WiCOM,VII,PI-4.[DOI:10.1109/WICom.2008.2737]
75胡锦涛.<高举中国特色社会主义伟大旗帜 为夺取全面建设小康社会新胜利而奋斗-在中国共产党第十七次全国代表大会上的报告>,2007年10月15日。
79潜在排放系数、碳氧化率、平均低位发热量来源为“2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories(Volume 2:Energy)”。
80CO2排放量=A~*B~*C~*D~*44/12/10000(质量单位)或E=A~*B~*C~*D~*44/12/1000(体积单位):该计算公式采自于中国清洁发展机制网(httD://cdm.ccchina.gov.cn)。
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