北京市金融保险业投入产出分析
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摘要
投入产出分析,也叫部门间平衡法,是一种行之有效的经济数量分析方法,于1936年由美国著名经济学家瓦西里·里昂惕夫提出。它主要通过编制投入产出表及建立相应的数学模型,反映经济系统各个部门(产业间)的关系。
在投入产出方法的研究领域里,我国的陈锡康、刘起运、佟仁城、许宪春等做了大量的工作。随着投入产出技术的日益成熟,利用投入产出分析法分析各行业、各部门之间的关系的文章大量涌现。本文利用投入产出分析法从定量上全而分析北京市金融保险业的投入产出结构及测度其产业经济力。
本文根据2002年、2005年北京市投入产出表,运用SPSS软件,从以下几个方而对北京市金融保险业进行了分析：
一)北京市金融保险业投入产出分析
1)北京市金融保险业的投入结构分析
2005年,北京市金融保险业的总投入为1142.82亿元。其中42个产业部门的中间消耗为306.20亿元,占总投入的26.79%；新创造的增加值为836.62亿元,占73.21%,增加值比例位于各产业部门的前列。
2)北京市金融保险业的使用结构分析
2005年,北京市金融保险业的总产出为1142.82亿元。其中,用于对42个产业部门的中间使用为688.19亿元,中间使用率为60.22%；最终使用为481.36亿元,占总产出的42.12%。
3)北京市金融保险业的产业关联分析
影响力系数反映了国民经济某部门增加一个最终使用单位时,对国民经济各部门产生的生产需求波及程度。2005年,北京市金融保险业的影响力系数为0.35,低于各部门的平均水平,在42个产业部门中位于第40位,表明目前金融保险业最终使用的变动对国民经济总产出变动的影响较小。
感应度系数反映了国民经济各部门均增加一个使用单位时,某部门由此受到的需求感应程度,也就是该部门为满足其他部门生产的需要而提供的产出量。金融保险业的感应度系数为1.27,高于各部门平均水平,在42个产业部门中位于第11位,这说明目前金融保险业受国民经济各产业影响的程度较大,国民经济对金融保险业的推动作用较大。
二)北京市金融保险业产业经济力测度
产业部门经济力是本文为叙述简便而提出的一个包括产业规模、产出效益、产品份额、产业关联度等多个方面的综合概念,它不仅涉及到部门在社会再生产各环节的作用大小,也涉及本部门在生产过程中的价值构成、经济效率、与它部门的经济技术联系等。本文选取以下十个指标：增加值比例,总产出比例,增加值率,创税能力,盈余能力,中间使用份额,消费份额,流出份额,产业影响力系数,产业感应度系数。利用这十个指标,运用SPSS,通过主成分分析、因子分析、聚类分析对北京市各部门的产业经济力进行测度。
The analysis of Input-Output, also known as inter-sectoral balance method, is an effective method of quantitative analysis in economy. It was raised by the famous American economist, Wassily Ti Mufti, in 1936. It can reflect the relationship of all sectors (inter-industry)in the economic system, on the basis of the preparation of input-output tables and the establishment of the corresponding mathematical model. In China, it was studied a littlle later, but spreaded rapidly, and had various species of model, with a lot of participants.It had distinct Chinese characteristics.
In the the study area of input-output method, China's Chen Xikang, Liu Qiyun, Tong Yancheng did a lot of work. With the sophisticating of input-output techniques, the articles using input-output analysis method to analyze the relationship between the various departments and the relationship between the various industries appeared in large numbers. But at present, few people involved in the analysis of the input-output structure and the industry economic power of the finance and insurance industry in Beijing, using the input-output method.
This text analyses the input-output structure of the financial insurance industry in Beijing according to the input-output data of Beijing in 2002 and 2005.
1. The input-output analysis of financial insurance industry in Beijing
1)The analysis of the input structure
In 2005, the total input of Beijing's financial insurance industry is 114.282 billion yuan. The consumption of the 42 industry departments' intermediate use was 30.62 billion yuan, which accounted for 73.21% of the total.The newly created added value was 83.662 billion yuan, which accounted for 73.21% of and was in the front rank of all sectors.
2) The analysis of the output structure
In 2005, the total output of the finance and insurance industry was 114.28 billion yuan. The intermediate use for the 42 industry departments was 68.82 billion yuan, accounting for 60.22%.The finial use was 48.136 billion yuan, accouting for 42.12%.
3)The analysis of industry correlation
Influence coefficient reflects the influence degree of the other industry departments'production demand when some industry department increase one unit terminal use. In 2005, Beijing's finance and insurance industry's influence coefficient was 0.35, lower than average level, and ranked 40 of the 42 industry sector.
Sensitivity coefficient reflects the influence degree of some industry departments'production demand when the other industry department increase one unit intermediate use. In 2005, Beijing's finance and insurance industry's sensitivity coefficient was 1.27, higher than average level, and ranked 11 of the 42 industry sector.
2. The measurement of the financial and insurance industry department's economic strength
Industry department's economic strength is a comprehensive defination that includes industrial scale、output efficiency、products share、industry correlation and other aspects. It is involved not only in the industry department's effect on each tache of social reproduction, but also the value structure, economic efficiency, economic and technological relation with the other departments and so on of the production process of itself. This paper selects the following 10 indicators:the proportion of added value, gross output ratio, added value ratio, tax capacity, surplus capacity, intermediate consumption share, outflow share, industry influence coefficient, industry sensitivity coefficient. With these indicators, we use SPSS software to do principal component analysis, factor analysis, cluster analysis. According to the analysis results, it measures industry economic power of financial insurance industry in Beijing and puts forward rationalization suggestion to develop the finance and insurance industry in Beijing.
在投入产出方法的研究领域里,我国的陈锡康、刘起运、佟仁城、许宪春等做了大量的工作。随着投入产出技术的日益成熟,利用投入产出分析法分析各行业、各部门之间的关系的文章大量涌现。本文利用投入产出分析法从定量上全而分析北京市金融保险业的投入产出结构及测度其产业经济力。
本文根据2002年、2005年北京市投入产出表,运用SPSS软件,从以下几个方而对北京市金融保险业进行了分析：
一)北京市金融保险业投入产出分析
1)北京市金融保险业的投入结构分析
2005年,北京市金融保险业的总投入为1142.82亿元。其中42个产业部门的中间消耗为306.20亿元,占总投入的26.79%；新创造的增加值为836.62亿元,占73.21%,增加值比例位于各产业部门的前列。
2)北京市金融保险业的使用结构分析
2005年,北京市金融保险业的总产出为1142.82亿元。其中,用于对42个产业部门的中间使用为688.19亿元,中间使用率为60.22%；最终使用为481.36亿元,占总产出的42.12%。
3)北京市金融保险业的产业关联分析
影响力系数反映了国民经济某部门增加一个最终使用单位时,对国民经济各部门产生的生产需求波及程度。2005年,北京市金融保险业的影响力系数为0.35,低于各部门的平均水平,在42个产业部门中位于第40位,表明目前金融保险业最终使用的变动对国民经济总产出变动的影响较小。
感应度系数反映了国民经济各部门均增加一个使用单位时,某部门由此受到的需求感应程度,也就是该部门为满足其他部门生产的需要而提供的产出量。金融保险业的感应度系数为1.27,高于各部门平均水平,在42个产业部门中位于第11位,这说明目前金融保险业受国民经济各产业影响的程度较大,国民经济对金融保险业的推动作用较大。
二)北京市金融保险业产业经济力测度
产业部门经济力是本文为叙述简便而提出的一个包括产业规模、产出效益、产品份额、产业关联度等多个方面的综合概念,它不仅涉及到部门在社会再生产各环节的作用大小,也涉及本部门在生产过程中的价值构成、经济效率、与它部门的经济技术联系等。本文选取以下十个指标：增加值比例,总产出比例,增加值率,创税能力,盈余能力,中间使用份额,消费份额,流出份额,产业影响力系数,产业感应度系数。利用这十个指标,运用SPSS,通过主成分分析、因子分析、聚类分析对北京市各部门的产业经济力进行测度。
The analysis of Input-Output, also known as inter-sectoral balance method, is an effective method of quantitative analysis in economy. It was raised by the famous American economist, Wassily Ti Mufti, in 1936. It can reflect the relationship of all sectors (inter-industry)in the economic system, on the basis of the preparation of input-output tables and the establishment of the corresponding mathematical model. In China, it was studied a littlle later, but spreaded rapidly, and had various species of model, with a lot of participants.It had distinct Chinese characteristics.
In the the study area of input-output method, China's Chen Xikang, Liu Qiyun, Tong Yancheng did a lot of work. With the sophisticating of input-output techniques, the articles using input-output analysis method to analyze the relationship between the various departments and the relationship between the various industries appeared in large numbers. But at present, few people involved in the analysis of the input-output structure and the industry economic power of the finance and insurance industry in Beijing, using the input-output method.
This text analyses the input-output structure of the financial insurance industry in Beijing according to the input-output data of Beijing in 2002 and 2005.
1. The input-output analysis of financial insurance industry in Beijing
1)The analysis of the input structure
In 2005, the total input of Beijing's financial insurance industry is 114.282 billion yuan. The consumption of the 42 industry departments' intermediate use was 30.62 billion yuan, which accounted for 73.21% of the total.The newly created added value was 83.662 billion yuan, which accounted for 73.21% of and was in the front rank of all sectors.
2) The analysis of the output structure
In 2005, the total output of the finance and insurance industry was 114.28 billion yuan. The intermediate use for the 42 industry departments was 68.82 billion yuan, accounting for 60.22%.The finial use was 48.136 billion yuan, accouting for 42.12%.
3)The analysis of industry correlation
Influence coefficient reflects the influence degree of the other industry departments'production demand when some industry department increase one unit terminal use. In 2005, Beijing's finance and insurance industry's influence coefficient was 0.35, lower than average level, and ranked 40 of the 42 industry sector.
Sensitivity coefficient reflects the influence degree of some industry departments'production demand when the other industry department increase one unit intermediate use. In 2005, Beijing's finance and insurance industry's sensitivity coefficient was 1.27, higher than average level, and ranked 11 of the 42 industry sector.
2. The measurement of the financial and insurance industry department's economic strength
Industry department's economic strength is a comprehensive defination that includes industrial scale、output efficiency、products share、industry correlation and other aspects. It is involved not only in the industry department's effect on each tache of social reproduction, but also the value structure, economic efficiency, economic and technological relation with the other departments and so on of the production process of itself. This paper selects the following 10 indicators:the proportion of added value, gross output ratio, added value ratio, tax capacity, surplus capacity, intermediate consumption share, outflow share, industry influence coefficient, industry sensitivity coefficient. With these indicators, we use SPSS software to do principal component analysis, factor analysis, cluster analysis. According to the analysis results, it measures industry economic power of financial insurance industry in Beijing and puts forward rationalization suggestion to develop the finance and insurance industry in Beijing.
引文
[1]满姝雯.上海市金融保险业投入产出分析.物流科技,2006.136—141.
[2]刘起运,陈璋,苏汝劼.投入产出分析.北京：中国人民大学出版社,2006年第一版：1—64.
[3]苏东水.产业经济学.北京：高等教育出版社,2000年第一版：169—218.
[4]林海明,张文霖.主成分分析和因子分析的异同和SPSS软件.统计研究,2005,(3)：65—69.
[5]郭显光.如何用SPSS软件进行主成分分析.统计与信息论坛,1998,17(2)：60—64.
[6]甘寿国.产业部门经济力的测度与因素分析.南方经济,2003,(11)：66—68.
[7]胡振华,袁静.因子分析在企业综合经济效益评价中的应用.2001,7(3)：214—217.
[8]萨缪尔森.经济学(上册)[M].商务印书馆,1950.65—99.
[9]薛薇.SPSS统计分析方法及应用.北京：电子工业出版社,2009,1.
[10]黄达.金融学.北京：中国人民大学出版社,2004.115—145,427—447.
[11]北京统计局,国家统计局北京调查总队.《2002年北京市投入产出表》.2007年版.北京.北京2007投入产出调查网.
[12]北京统计局,国家统计局北京调查总队.《2005年北京市投入产出表》.2007年版.北京.北京2007投入产出调查网.
[13]赵光滨.影子价格研究[J].黑龙江水利,1997(2)：108—109.
[14]毕康.北京市物流业的投入产出分析.2006, (北京交通大学硕士学位论文)
[16]王微.基于投入产出分析法研究中国农业在国民经济发展中的作用.2007.8—19(山东大学硕士学位论文)
[17]于秀林,任雪松.多元统计分析.北京：中国统计出版社,1999.61—97,154—184.
[18]中国投入产出学会课题组从2002年表看我国的经济状况[J]统计研究2006.12 3-6.
[19]何其祥.投入产出分析[M].北京：科学出版社,1999.30-39.
[20]赵德友.投入产出表的基本原理及编表思路(上)[J].市场研究.2002(2)：40—42.
[21]赵德友.投入产出表的基本原理及编表思路(下)[J].市场研究.2002(3)：31—33.
[22]齐舒畅.我国投入产出表的编制和应用情况简介[J].中国统计.2003 (5)：21—22.
[23]廖明球经济、资源,环境投入产出模型研究[M].首都经济贸易大学出版社.2005年第1版：48—117.
[24]山西省统计局国民经济核算处.浅谈投入产出模型编织技术[J].山西统计.1998(6)：12—14.
[25]王世炎,赵德友,顾俊龙.河南省金融投入产出表及其应用.2004中国投入产出理论与实践[M].中国统计出版社.2005年第1版：70—71.
[2]刘起运,陈璋,苏汝劼.投入产出分析.北京：中国人民大学出版社,2006年第一版：1—64.
[3]苏东水.产业经济学.北京：高等教育出版社,2000年第一版：169—218.
[4]林海明,张文霖.主成分分析和因子分析的异同和SPSS软件.统计研究,2005,(3)：65—69.
[5]郭显光.如何用SPSS软件进行主成分分析.统计与信息论坛,1998,17(2)：60—64.
[6]甘寿国.产业部门经济力的测度与因素分析.南方经济,2003,(11)：66—68.
[7]胡振华,袁静.因子分析在企业综合经济效益评价中的应用.2001,7(3)：214—217.
[8]萨缪尔森.经济学(上册)[M].商务印书馆,1950.65—99.
[9]薛薇.SPSS统计分析方法及应用.北京：电子工业出版社,2009,1.
[10]黄达.金融学.北京：中国人民大学出版社,2004.115—145,427—447.
[11]北京统计局,国家统计局北京调查总队.《2002年北京市投入产出表》.2007年版.北京.北京2007投入产出调查网.
[12]北京统计局,国家统计局北京调查总队.《2005年北京市投入产出表》.2007年版.北京.北京2007投入产出调查网.
[13]赵光滨.影子价格研究[J].黑龙江水利,1997(2)：108—109.
[14]毕康.北京市物流业的投入产出分析.2006, (北京交通大学硕士学位论文)
[16]王微.基于投入产出分析法研究中国农业在国民经济发展中的作用.2007.8—19(山东大学硕士学位论文)
[17]于秀林,任雪松.多元统计分析.北京：中国统计出版社,1999.61—97,154—184.
[18]中国投入产出学会课题组从2002年表看我国的经济状况[J]统计研究2006.12 3-6.
[19]何其祥.投入产出分析[M].北京：科学出版社,1999.30-39.
[20]赵德友.投入产出表的基本原理及编表思路(上)[J].市场研究.2002(2)：40—42.
[21]赵德友.投入产出表的基本原理及编表思路(下)[J].市场研究.2002(3)：31—33.
[22]齐舒畅.我国投入产出表的编制和应用情况简介[J].中国统计.2003 (5)：21—22.
[23]廖明球经济、资源,环境投入产出模型研究[M].首都经济贸易大学出版社.2005年第1版：48—117.
[24]山西省统计局国民经济核算处.浅谈投入产出模型编织技术[J].山西统计.1998(6)：12—14.
[25]王世炎,赵德友,顾俊龙.河南省金融投入产出表及其应用.2004中国投入产出理论与实践[M].中国统计出版社.2005年第1版：70—71.