基于风险评估理论的输电网络扩展规划研究
|
摘要
基于风险评估理论的输电网络扩展规划研究,是在传统的确定性规划方法中引入风险评估理论和技术,其目的是通过在规划过程中增加新的考虑因素,对确定性规划方案进一步进行风险和经济的综合分析,选择得出最佳方案。
本文探讨了风险评估理论在输电网规划中的应用,建立了电网规划模型,给出了电网规划方案的风险评估方法。对电压安全风险、节点停电风险和投资风险进行了量化,并对相关不确定性因素进行了模糊化处理,解决了传统确定性规划方法不能够准确反映电网系统中所具有随机性、概率性和不确定性的问题。本文的主要研究成果如下:
(1)提出引入风险评估技术的单阶段和多阶段输电网规划模型。目标函数为规划方案的总投资成本和运行成本之和最小,满足常规的输电网规划约束条件。具体计算方法为,采用改进遗传算法求解,并采用风险评估技术对已获得的规划方案集逐一进行风险评估,根据确定性成本和风险费用选择最优方案。
(2)提出考虑电压安全风险的输电网规划方法。由于电压安全准则是规划的基本准则,在前述引入风险评估的输电网规划方法基础上,有必要引入电压安全裕度指标。以电压安全裕度和负荷削减费用为目标函数,建立了多目标最优负荷削减模型,并采用连续模糊线性规划法求解。根据确定性成本和考虑电压安全裕度指标后的风险费用选择最优方案。
(3)提出考虑模糊不确定性因素的概率规划方法。在引入风险评估的输电网规划方法基础上,考虑相关不确定性因素模糊化的问题。规划模型以模糊投资成本和模糊运行成本之和最小为目标函数,满足电网安全运行约束。具体计算方法,采用改进遗传算法求解,并采用模糊风险评估技术对已获得的规划方案集逐一进行风险评估,根据模糊投资成本、模糊运行成本和模糊风险费用选择最优方案。
(4)提出考虑负荷节点停电风险的输电网规划方法。采用基于调查法的节点停电损失模型来衡量节点的停电损失水平。规划模型的目标函数为输电投资成本和运行成本之和最小,满足电网安全运行约束和节点停电风险的随机约束。具体计算方法,采用蒙特卡罗模拟和改进遗传算法相结合的方法求解该模型,根据给定置信水平下的目标函数值最小确定最优方案。
(5)提出考虑条件风险价值评估(CVaR)的输电网规划方法。将节点功率的不确定性作为随机扰动,通过概率最优潮流求取该扰动下输电投资收益的随机分布,进而计算CVaR风险指标。规划模型的目标函数为CVaR风险指标、输电投资成本和越限惩罚之和最小,满足电网安全运行约束和输电投资收益率期望值约束。具体计算方法,采用改进遗传算法求解规划模型,并采用随机扰动法评估电网风险水平,根据给定置信水平下的目标函数值最小确定最优方案。
本文最后对算例进行统一的分析和比较,比较各种方法获得的规划结果间的差异,分析总结各规划方法的优缺点和侧重点,指出基于风险评估理论的规划方法和确定性规划方法的区别,并验证所提出的规划模型和求解算法的可行性、有效性和实用性。
Transmission expansion planning problems based on risk assessment theories and techniques use comprehensive analysis of economic and risk to search optimum solution of transmission expansion planning with the consideration of new constrains.
This dissertation has discussed the risk assessment theory and its application on transmission expansion planning. According to the risk calculation of voltage security, outage and investment and fuzzification of uncertainty factors, the new planning methods accurately reflected the characteristics of random and probabilistic in transmission systems that can not be found by deterministic methods. The main contributions of this dissertation are as follows:
(1) Improved single-stage and multiple-stage transmission network planning models integrating with risk assessment techniques are proposed. Transmission investment cost and operation cost are involved in the proposed deterministic transmission planning models and an improved genetic algorithm is applied for solving. The risk assessment techniques are used to evaluate each solution that is obtained by the deterministic approach. According to the sum of deterministic cost and risk cost of each plan, the optimal plan is obtained.
(2) A novel transmission planning approach that considers voltage security is proposed. Voltage security is the basic criterion for transmission system, so the voltage stable index (VSI) is proposed and applied on the risk assessment of transmission planning. An optimal load curtailment model that includes the security margin and cost is proposed that can be solved by a successive fuzzy linear programming method. The optimal transmission plan is decided by the sum of deterministic cost and risk cost.
(3) A novel transmission planning model that considers uncertainties and integrates risk assessment techniques is proposed. Fuzzy transmission investment cost and fuzzy operation cost are involved in the transmission planning model and an improved genetic algorithm is applied for solving. The risk assessment techniques considering uncertainties are used to evaluate each solution that is obtained by the provirus method. According to the sum of fuzzy transmission investment cost, fuzzy operation cost and fuzzy risk cost, the proposed approach decides the optimal plan.
(4) A novel transmission planning approach that considers outage risk of load bus is proposed. The model of outage cost is proposed to evaluate the outage risk level of load bus. The objective of transmission planning is the sum of investment cost and operation cost, integrating with security operation constrains and chance constraint of outage risk of load bus. The Monte Carlo simulation method and improved genetic algorithm are combined to solve this model and decided the optimal planning scheme according to a certain trust level.
(5) A novel transmission planning approach that considers conditional values at risk (CVaR) is proposed. The CVaR index is adopted to evaluate the transmission investment risk. In the analysis of CVaR, the uncertainty of nodal power is taken as a random disturb and caused by which, the random distribution of transmission investment profit is obtained by solving the probabilistic power flow. After the CVaR index is adopted in objective functions and limitation of rate of return on transmission investment is taken as one of constraints, the transmission planning model is built up and solved by genetic method to achieve the optimal transmission planning.
Analysis and comparison on the test cases illustrate the differences between the proposed methods and the differences between risk methods and deterministic methods and prove the feasibility, validity and practicability of the proposed planning models and solving algorithms in this dissertation.
本文探讨了风险评估理论在输电网规划中的应用,建立了电网规划模型,给出了电网规划方案的风险评估方法。对电压安全风险、节点停电风险和投资风险进行了量化,并对相关不确定性因素进行了模糊化处理,解决了传统确定性规划方法不能够准确反映电网系统中所具有随机性、概率性和不确定性的问题。本文的主要研究成果如下:
(1)提出引入风险评估技术的单阶段和多阶段输电网规划模型。目标函数为规划方案的总投资成本和运行成本之和最小,满足常规的输电网规划约束条件。具体计算方法为,采用改进遗传算法求解,并采用风险评估技术对已获得的规划方案集逐一进行风险评估,根据确定性成本和风险费用选择最优方案。
(2)提出考虑电压安全风险的输电网规划方法。由于电压安全准则是规划的基本准则,在前述引入风险评估的输电网规划方法基础上,有必要引入电压安全裕度指标。以电压安全裕度和负荷削减费用为目标函数,建立了多目标最优负荷削减模型,并采用连续模糊线性规划法求解。根据确定性成本和考虑电压安全裕度指标后的风险费用选择最优方案。
(3)提出考虑模糊不确定性因素的概率规划方法。在引入风险评估的输电网规划方法基础上,考虑相关不确定性因素模糊化的问题。规划模型以模糊投资成本和模糊运行成本之和最小为目标函数,满足电网安全运行约束。具体计算方法,采用改进遗传算法求解,并采用模糊风险评估技术对已获得的规划方案集逐一进行风险评估,根据模糊投资成本、模糊运行成本和模糊风险费用选择最优方案。
(4)提出考虑负荷节点停电风险的输电网规划方法。采用基于调查法的节点停电损失模型来衡量节点的停电损失水平。规划模型的目标函数为输电投资成本和运行成本之和最小,满足电网安全运行约束和节点停电风险的随机约束。具体计算方法,采用蒙特卡罗模拟和改进遗传算法相结合的方法求解该模型,根据给定置信水平下的目标函数值最小确定最优方案。
(5)提出考虑条件风险价值评估(CVaR)的输电网规划方法。将节点功率的不确定性作为随机扰动,通过概率最优潮流求取该扰动下输电投资收益的随机分布,进而计算CVaR风险指标。规划模型的目标函数为CVaR风险指标、输电投资成本和越限惩罚之和最小,满足电网安全运行约束和输电投资收益率期望值约束。具体计算方法,采用改进遗传算法求解规划模型,并采用随机扰动法评估电网风险水平,根据给定置信水平下的目标函数值最小确定最优方案。
本文最后对算例进行统一的分析和比较,比较各种方法获得的规划结果间的差异,分析总结各规划方法的优缺点和侧重点,指出基于风险评估理论的规划方法和确定性规划方法的区别,并验证所提出的规划模型和求解算法的可行性、有效性和实用性。
Transmission expansion planning problems based on risk assessment theories and techniques use comprehensive analysis of economic and risk to search optimum solution of transmission expansion planning with the consideration of new constrains.
This dissertation has discussed the risk assessment theory and its application on transmission expansion planning. According to the risk calculation of voltage security, outage and investment and fuzzification of uncertainty factors, the new planning methods accurately reflected the characteristics of random and probabilistic in transmission systems that can not be found by deterministic methods. The main contributions of this dissertation are as follows:
(1) Improved single-stage and multiple-stage transmission network planning models integrating with risk assessment techniques are proposed. Transmission investment cost and operation cost are involved in the proposed deterministic transmission planning models and an improved genetic algorithm is applied for solving. The risk assessment techniques are used to evaluate each solution that is obtained by the deterministic approach. According to the sum of deterministic cost and risk cost of each plan, the optimal plan is obtained.
(2) A novel transmission planning approach that considers voltage security is proposed. Voltage security is the basic criterion for transmission system, so the voltage stable index (VSI) is proposed and applied on the risk assessment of transmission planning. An optimal load curtailment model that includes the security margin and cost is proposed that can be solved by a successive fuzzy linear programming method. The optimal transmission plan is decided by the sum of deterministic cost and risk cost.
(3) A novel transmission planning model that considers uncertainties and integrates risk assessment techniques is proposed. Fuzzy transmission investment cost and fuzzy operation cost are involved in the transmission planning model and an improved genetic algorithm is applied for solving. The risk assessment techniques considering uncertainties are used to evaluate each solution that is obtained by the provirus method. According to the sum of fuzzy transmission investment cost, fuzzy operation cost and fuzzy risk cost, the proposed approach decides the optimal plan.
(4) A novel transmission planning approach that considers outage risk of load bus is proposed. The model of outage cost is proposed to evaluate the outage risk level of load bus. The objective of transmission planning is the sum of investment cost and operation cost, integrating with security operation constrains and chance constraint of outage risk of load bus. The Monte Carlo simulation method and improved genetic algorithm are combined to solve this model and decided the optimal planning scheme according to a certain trust level.
(5) A novel transmission planning approach that considers conditional values at risk (CVaR) is proposed. The CVaR index is adopted to evaluate the transmission investment risk. In the analysis of CVaR, the uncertainty of nodal power is taken as a random disturb and caused by which, the random distribution of transmission investment profit is obtained by solving the probabilistic power flow. After the CVaR index is adopted in objective functions and limitation of rate of return on transmission investment is taken as one of constraints, the transmission planning model is built up and solved by genetic method to achieve the optimal transmission planning.
Analysis and comparison on the test cases illustrate the differences between the proposed methods and the differences between risk methods and deterministic methods and prove the feasibility, validity and practicability of the proposed planning models and solving algorithms in this dissertation.
引文
[1]李文沅.电力系统风险评估—模型、方法和应用[M].北京:科学出版社.2006.
[2] Billinton R, Li Wenyuan, Reliability Assessment of Electric Power Systems Using Monte Carlo Methods [M]. New York and London: Plenum Press, 1994.
[3] Billinton R, Allan R N. Reliability Evaluation of Engineering Systems: Concepts and Techniques (second edition) [M]. New York and London: Plenum Press, 1992.
[4] Billinton R, Allan R N. Reliability Evaluation of Power Systems (second edition) [M]. New York and London: Plenum Press, 1996.
[5]王锡凡.电力系统优化规划[M].北京:水利电力出版社.1990.
[6]程浩忠,张焰.电力网络规划的方法与应用[M].上海:上海科学技术出版社.2002.
[7] Yoshikazu Fukuyama, Hsais-Dong Chiang. A Parallel Genetic Algorithm for Generation Expansion Planning [J]. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, 1996, 11(2): 955-961.
[8]王秀丽,王锡凡.遗传算法在输电系统规划中的应用[J],西安交通大学学报,1995,29(8):1-9.
[9]毛玉宾,王秀丽,王锡凡.多阶段输电网最优规划的遗传算法[J],电力系统自动化,1998,22(12):13-15.
[10]金义雄,程浩忠,严健勇,等.改进粒子群算法及其在输电网规划中的应用[J],中国电机工程学报,2005,25(4):46-51.
[11]金义雄,程浩忠,严健勇,等.计及阻塞管理及剩余容量的并行粒子群电网规划方法[J].电网技术,2005,29(23):18-23.
[12]金义雄,程浩忠,严健勇,等.基于局优分支优化的粒子群收敛保证算法及其在电网规划中的应用[J].中国电机工程学报,2005,25(23):12-18.
[13]陈根军,李继光,王磊,等.基于Tabu搜索的配电网络规划[J].电力系统自动化,2001(4):40-44.
[14]周玲,王兴念,丁晓群,等.基因禁忌组合算法在配电网网架优化规划中的应用[J].电网技术,1999,23(9):35-38.
[15] Wen Fushuan, Chang C S. Transmission Network Optimal Planning Using the Tabu Search Method [J]. Electric Power Systems Research, 1997, 47(2): 153-163.
[16]翟海保,程浩忠,陈春霖,等.基于改进蚁群算法的输电网络扩展规划[J].中国电力,2003,36(12):49-52.
[17]翟海保,程浩忠,陈春霖,等.多阶段输电网络最优规划的并行蚁群算法[J].电力系统自动化,2004,28(20):37-42.
[18]翟海保,程浩忠,吕干云,等.基于模式记忆并行蚁群算法的输电网规划[J].中国电机工程学报,2005,25(9):17-42.
[19] Romero R, Gallego R A, Monticelli A. Transmission System Expansion Planning by Simulated Annealing [J]. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, 1996, 11(1): 364-369.
[20]高洁.应用免疫算法进行电网规划研究[J],系统工程理论与实践,2001,21(5):119-123.
[21]蒙文川,邱家驹.基于免疫算法的配电网重构[J],中国电机工程学报,2006,26(17):25-29.
[22] Galiana D, McGillis D T, Marin M A. Expert Systems in Transmission Planning [C]. Proceedings of the IEEE, 1992, 80(5): 712-726.
[23] Zitzler E, Thiele L. Multi-objective Evolutionary Algorithms: A Comparative Case Study and the Strength Pareto Approach [J]. IEEE Trans. on Evolutionary Computation, 1999, 3(4): 257-271.
[24] R. Villasana, L. Garver and S. Salon, Transmission network planning using linear programming [J]. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, 1985, 104: 349-35.
[25] Levi V A, Calovic M S. A New Decomposition Based Method for Optimal Expansion Planning of Large Transmission Network [J]. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, 1993, 6(3): 937-943.
[26] Laura B, Gerson C O, Mario P. A Mixed Integer Disjunctive Model for Transmission Network Expansion [J]. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, 2001, 16(3): 560-565.
[27] Liu Sige, Zhou Xiaoxin, Fan Mingtian, Cheng Haozhong. A New Model for Multi-objective Load Curtailment Applied on Deregulated Environment [J]. WSEAS Trans. on Circuit and Systems. (Accepted 2009).
[28]程浩忠,高赐威,马则良,等.多目标电网规划的分层最优化方法[J].中国电机工程学报,2003,(10):11-16.
[29]金华征,程浩忠,杨晓梅,等.模糊集对分析法用于计及ATC的多目标电网规划[J],电力系统自动化,2005,29(21):45-49.
[30]马钦国,张东正,杨柳,等.陕西电网差异化规划的研究[J].陕西电力,2008,36(8):15-17.
[31] Yi Wang, Haozhong Cheng, Chun Wang, et al. Pareto Optimality Based Multi-objective Transmission Planning Considering Transmission Congestion [J]. Electric Power System Research, 2008 78: 1619-1626.
[32]彭锦新,刘天琪,刘辉乐.基于小生境技术的多目标配网重构[J],继电器,2005,33(8):13-17.
[33] R S Chanda, P K Bhattacheriee. Transmission Expansion Planning: A Fuzzy Linear Programming based Approach [J]. Journal of the Institution of Engineers (India). 2003, 84(3): 114-119.
[34] Van Geert, Edwin. Increased Uncertainty A New Challenge for Power System Planners [C]. IEE Colloquium (Digest), 1998, n 200: 1/1-1/6.
[35]朱海峰,程浩忠,张焰.考虑线路被选概率的电网灵活规划方法[J].电力系统自动化,2000,24(17):20-24.
[36]程浩忠,朱海峰,马则良等.基于等微增率准则的电网灵活规划方法[J].上海交通大学学报.2003,37(9):1351-1353.
[37] Saraiva, Tome J. A Fuzzy Approach to Power System Planning and Power Transaction in A Competitive Environment [C]. Proceedings of the IEEE Conference on Decision and Control, 1996, V2: 2196-2201.
[38] EI-Sheikhi, Farag Ali, Billinton Roy. Load Forecast Uncertainty Considerations in Generating Unit Preventive Maintenance Scheduling for Single System [C]. IEE Conference Publication, 1991, n 338: 241-245.
[39] Haozhong Cheng, Haifeng Zhu, Mariesa L. Crow, Gerald B. Sheble. Flexible Method for Power Network Planning Using the Unascertained Number [J]. Electric Power System Research. 2004, 68(1): 41-46.
[40]国务院,《国家突发公共事件总体应急预案》,2006-1-8.
[41]国家电力监管委员会,《国家处置电网大面积停电事件应急预案》,2005-6-23.
[42]范明天,刘思革,张祖平,周孝信.城市供电应急管理研究与展望[J].电网技术,2007(31): 38-41.
[43]刘思革,范明天,张祖平.城市电网应急能力评估技术指标的研究[J].电网技术,2007(11): 17-20.
[44]卢强.我国电力系统灾变防治与经济运行的重大科学问题的研究[J].电力系统自动化.2000(24):1-5.
[45]韩祯祥,曹一家.电力系统的安全性及防治措施[J].电网技术,2004(28):1-6.
[46]陈为化,江全元,曹一家.基于风险理论的复杂电力系统脆弱性评估[J].电网技术,2005(29): 12-17.
[47]杨卫东,徐政,韩祯祥.电力系统灾变防治的现状与目标[J].电力系统自动化.2004(24):7-12.
[48] Mingtian Fan, Zhang Zuping. Optimum Planning Approach of Power System Based on the Assessment of Seismic Risk [C]. The Conference of Anti-disaster on Power System. 2001. 82-85.
[49] Javier Salmeron, Kevin Wood, Ross Baldick. Analysis of Electric Grid Security under Terrorist Threat [J]. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, 2004 19(2): 905-911.
[50]程浩忠等.电力系统规划[M].北京.中国电力出版社:2008.
[51]乔瑞(著),陈跃等(译).风险价值VaR(第二版)[M].北京,中信出版社,2004.10.
[52]周莉梅,范明天.城市电网用户停电损失估算及其评价方法研究[J].中国电力,2006,39(7):70-73.
[53] Li Wenyuan, Mansour Y, Korczynski J K, Mills B J. Application of Transmission Reliability Assessment in Probabilistic Planning of BC Hydro Vancouver South Metro System [J]. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, 1995, 10 (2): 963-970.
[54] Li Wenyuan, Mansour Y, Mills B J, Korczynski J K. Composite System Reliability Evaluation and Probabilistic Planning: BC Hydro’s Practice [J]. 1995 Canadian Electric Association Conference, Vancouver, March 1995.
[55]王一.电力市场环境下多目标输电网优化规划方法的研究[D].上海交通大学博士学位论文,2008.
[56]雷英杰,张善文,李续武等.MATLAB遗传算法工具箱及应用[M].西安电子科技大学出版社,2005.
[57] Li Wenyuan, Jiaqi Zhou, Xiaofu Xiong and Jiping Liu. A Statistic-Fuzzy Technique for Clustering Load Curves [J]. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, 2007, 22 (2): 890-891.
[58] Li Wenyuan, Billinton R. Effects of Bus Load Uncertainty and Correlation in Composite System Adequacy Evaluation [J]. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, 1991, 6 (4): 1522-1529.
[59] Li Wenyuan, J.K. Korczynski. Risk Evaluation of Transmission System Operation Modes: Concept, Method and Application [J]. IEEE Power Engineering Society Winter Meeting, 2002: 1124-1129.
[60] Li Wenyuan, Billinton R. Common Cause Outage Models in Power System Reliability Evaluation [J]. IEEE Trans. On Power System, May 2003, 18(2): 966-968.
[61] R. Billinton, P. K. Vohra, and S. Kumar, Effect of station originated outages in a composite system—adequate evaluation of the IEEE reliability test system [J]. IEEE Trans. on Power App. Syst., 1985, PAS-104(10): 2649–2656.
[62] A. G. Phadke and J. S. Thorp, Expose hidden failures to prevent cascading outages in power systems [J]. IEEE Trans. on Comput. Appl. Power, 1996, 9(3): 20–23.
[63]程浩忠,吴浩.电力系统无功电压稳定[M].北京:中国电力出版社,2004.
[64] A.M. Chebbo, M.R. Irving, M.J.H. Sterling. Voltage collapse proximity indicator behavior animplications [J]. IEE Proceeding Generation Transmission Distribution, 1992, vol. 193, pp. 241-252.
[65] Dragan Vlaisavljevic, Miodrag B.Djukanovic, Dejan J.Sobajic, et al. Fuzzy linear programming based optimal power system rescheduling including preventive redispatch [J]. IEEE Trans. on Power System, 1999, 14(2): 525-531.
[66] W. Ongsakul, K. Chayakaulkheeree. Coordinated fuzzy constrained optimal power dispatch for bilateral contract, balancing e electricity, and ancillary services [J]. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, 2006, 21(2): 593-604.
[67] Liu Sige, Fan Mingtian, Zhou Xiaoxin, Cheng Haozhong. Optimal Load Curtailment using Multi-objective Fuzzy Linear Programming Method [J]. European Trans. on Electrical Power. (Accepted at 2009-6-26).
[68] Liu Sige, Fan Mingtian, Zhou Xiaoxin, Cheng Haozhong. A New Model for Multi-objective Load Curtailment Applied on Deregulated Environment [J]. WSEAS Trans. on Circuits and Systems. 2009, 8(5): 422-431.
[69] W. H. E. Liu and X. Guan. Fuzzy constraint enforcement and control action curtailment in an optimal power flow [J]. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, 1996, vol. 11, pp. 639-645.
[70] J. Kehler, Procuring load curtailment for grid security to Alberta [C]. Proceedings of the IEEE PES Winter Meeting 2001, Columbus, OH: 234-235.
[71] A Lossi, Trade curtailment schemes for the security control of the transmission network in a deregulated environment [J]. International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems, 2002, 24(1): 9-17.
[72] Durgesh P. Manjure, Elham B. Makram, Optimal load curtailment as a bi-criteria program [J]. Electric Power Systems Research, 2003, 66(3): 155-161.
[73] Huang, G.M., Nair, N.-K.C, Voltage stability constrained load curtailment procedure to evaluate power system reliability measures [C]. IEEE Power Engineering Society Winter Meeting, 2002, 2: 761-765.
[74] K. Tomsovic. Fuzzy linear programming approach to the reactive power/voltage control problem [J]. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems. 1992, 7(1): 287-293.
[75] H.J. Zimmermann, Fuzzy set theory and its application [M]. Kluwer, 2nd, ed., Boston, 1994.
[76] F. Palacios-Gomez, L. Lasdon, M. Engquist. Nonlinear Optimization by Successive Linear Programming [J]. Management Science. 1982, 28(4): 1106-1120.
[77] Merrill H M, Wood A J. Risk and Uncertainty in Power System Planning [J]. Electric Power & Energy System, 1991, 13(2): 81-90.
[78]程浩忠,张焰,严正等.电力系统规划[M].北京:中国电力出版社,2008.
[79] Silva I J, Rider M J, Romero R. Transmission Network Expansion Planning Considering Uncertainty in Demand [J]. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, 2006, 21(4): 1565-1573.
[80] Gorenstin B G, Campodonico N M, Costa J P. Power System Expansion Planning under Uncertainty [J]. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, 1993, 8(1): 129-136.
[81]刘宝碇,赵瑞清.随机规划与模糊规划[M].北京:清华大学出版社,1998.
[82]刘宝碇,赵瑞清,王纲.不确定规划及应用[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2003.
[83] Saraiva J T, Miranda V,Pinto L M V G. Impact on Some Planning Decisions from a Fuzzy Modeling [J]. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, 1994, 9(2): 819-825.
[84]朱海峰.不确定性信息的电网灵活规划方法[D].上海交通大学博士学位论文,2000,8.
[85]刘思革,程浩忠.基于粗糙集理论的多目标电网规划最优化模型[J].中国电机工程学报,2007, 27(7):65-69.
[86] A A Chowdhury, Don O Koval. Application of Customer Interruption Costs in Transmission Network Reliability Planning [J]. IEEE Trans. on Industry Applications, 2001, 37(6): 1590-1596.
[87] A A Chowdhury, Don O. Koval. Current Practices and Customer Value-Based Distribution System Reliability Planning [J]. IEEE Trans. on Industry Application, 2004, 40(5): 1174-1182.
[88] R.N.Allan, R.Billinton. Evaluation of reliability worth and value of lost load [J]. IEE Proceedings - Generation, Transmission and Distribution. 1996, 143(2): 171-180.
[89] J. T. Saraiva, et al, Generation/transmission power system reliability evaluation by Monte-Carlo simulation assuming a fuzzy load description [J]. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, 1996, vol. 11, pp. 690-695.
[90] M J Sullivan, B N Suddeth, T Vardell, et al. Interruption costs, customer satisfaction and expectations for service reliability [J]. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems. 1996, 11(3): 989-995.
[91] L Goel and R Billinton. A Procedure for Evaluating Interrupted Energy Assessment Rates in An Overall Electric Power System [J]. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, 1993, 8(3): 929-936.
[92]杨宁,文福拴.计及风险约束的多阶段输电系统规划方法[J].电力系统自动化,2005, 29(4): 28-33.
[93] Charens A, Cooper W W. Chance Constrainted Progarmming, Management Science [J]. 1959, 6(1): 73-79.
[94] Maurice Kendall,Alan Stuart.The Advanced Theory of Statistics [M]. Volume 1, fourth edition, London: C. Griffin, 1977.
[95] Crousillat E O, Dorifner P, Alvarado P, et al. Conflicting Objectives and Risk in Power System Planning [J]. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, 1993, 8(3): 887-893.
[96]魏远航,刘思革,苏剑.基于枚举抽样法的城市电网风险评估[J].电网技术,2008, 32(18): 62-66.
[97]郑风雷,文福拴,吴复立.电力市场环境下的输电投资与扩展规划[J].电力系统自动化,2006,30(9):95-104.
[98] Buygi M O, Balzer G, Shanechi H M, et al. Market-Based Transmission Expansion Planning [J]. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, 2004, 19(4): 2060-2067.
[99]皮埃特罗.潘泽,维普.k.班塞尔著.用VaR度量市场风险[M].机械工业出版社,2001.
[100]肖春来,李朋根,罗荣华.VaR风险控制体系的建立与应用[J],数学的实践与认识,2007,37(6):48-51.
[101]金华真.考虑市场环境的多目标输电网优化规划研究[D].上海交通大学博士学位论文,2007.
[102]任震,吴国玥,黄雯莹.电力市场中计算输电电价的一种新方法[J].中国电机工程学报,2003,23(1):37-40.
[103]王锡凡,王秀丽.电力系统的随机潮流分析[J].西安交通大学学报,1998,22(3):87-97.
[104]胡泽春,王锡凡,张显,等.考虑线路故障的随机潮流[J].中国电机工程学报,2005,25(24):26-33.
[105] Tian W D, Sutanto D, Lee Y B, et al. Cumulant Based Probabilitstic Power System Simulation Using Laguerre Polynomials [J]. IEEE Trans. on Energy Conversion, 1989, 4(4): 567-574.
[106] Liu Sige, Fan Mingtian, Zhou Xiaoxin. Probabilistic Power Flow Calculation Using Sigma-Point Transform Algorithm [C], 2006 IEEE Power-con. PS1-14, C1364.
[107] W. Li, Y. Mansour, J.K. Korczynski, B.J. Mills, Application of Transmission Reliability Assessment in Probabilistic Planning of BC Hydro Vancouver South Metro System [J]. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems. 1995, vol. 10, pp. 964-970.
[2] Billinton R, Li Wenyuan, Reliability Assessment of Electric Power Systems Using Monte Carlo Methods [M]. New York and London: Plenum Press, 1994.
[3] Billinton R, Allan R N. Reliability Evaluation of Engineering Systems: Concepts and Techniques (second edition) [M]. New York and London: Plenum Press, 1992.
[4] Billinton R, Allan R N. Reliability Evaluation of Power Systems (second edition) [M]. New York and London: Plenum Press, 1996.
[5]王锡凡.电力系统优化规划[M].北京:水利电力出版社.1990.
[6]程浩忠,张焰.电力网络规划的方法与应用[M].上海:上海科学技术出版社.2002.
[7] Yoshikazu Fukuyama, Hsais-Dong Chiang. A Parallel Genetic Algorithm for Generation Expansion Planning [J]. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, 1996, 11(2): 955-961.
[8]王秀丽,王锡凡.遗传算法在输电系统规划中的应用[J],西安交通大学学报,1995,29(8):1-9.
[9]毛玉宾,王秀丽,王锡凡.多阶段输电网最优规划的遗传算法[J],电力系统自动化,1998,22(12):13-15.
[10]金义雄,程浩忠,严健勇,等.改进粒子群算法及其在输电网规划中的应用[J],中国电机工程学报,2005,25(4):46-51.
[11]金义雄,程浩忠,严健勇,等.计及阻塞管理及剩余容量的并行粒子群电网规划方法[J].电网技术,2005,29(23):18-23.
[12]金义雄,程浩忠,严健勇,等.基于局优分支优化的粒子群收敛保证算法及其在电网规划中的应用[J].中国电机工程学报,2005,25(23):12-18.
[13]陈根军,李继光,王磊,等.基于Tabu搜索的配电网络规划[J].电力系统自动化,2001(4):40-44.
[14]周玲,王兴念,丁晓群,等.基因禁忌组合算法在配电网网架优化规划中的应用[J].电网技术,1999,23(9):35-38.
[15] Wen Fushuan, Chang C S. Transmission Network Optimal Planning Using the Tabu Search Method [J]. Electric Power Systems Research, 1997, 47(2): 153-163.
[16]翟海保,程浩忠,陈春霖,等.基于改进蚁群算法的输电网络扩展规划[J].中国电力,2003,36(12):49-52.
[17]翟海保,程浩忠,陈春霖,等.多阶段输电网络最优规划的并行蚁群算法[J].电力系统自动化,2004,28(20):37-42.
[18]翟海保,程浩忠,吕干云,等.基于模式记忆并行蚁群算法的输电网规划[J].中国电机工程学报,2005,25(9):17-42.
[19] Romero R, Gallego R A, Monticelli A. Transmission System Expansion Planning by Simulated Annealing [J]. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, 1996, 11(1): 364-369.
[20]高洁.应用免疫算法进行电网规划研究[J],系统工程理论与实践,2001,21(5):119-123.
[21]蒙文川,邱家驹.基于免疫算法的配电网重构[J],中国电机工程学报,2006,26(17):25-29.
[22] Galiana D, McGillis D T, Marin M A. Expert Systems in Transmission Planning [C]. Proceedings of the IEEE, 1992, 80(5): 712-726.
[23] Zitzler E, Thiele L. Multi-objective Evolutionary Algorithms: A Comparative Case Study and the Strength Pareto Approach [J]. IEEE Trans. on Evolutionary Computation, 1999, 3(4): 257-271.
[24] R. Villasana, L. Garver and S. Salon, Transmission network planning using linear programming [J]. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, 1985, 104: 349-35.
[25] Levi V A, Calovic M S. A New Decomposition Based Method for Optimal Expansion Planning of Large Transmission Network [J]. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, 1993, 6(3): 937-943.
[26] Laura B, Gerson C O, Mario P. A Mixed Integer Disjunctive Model for Transmission Network Expansion [J]. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, 2001, 16(3): 560-565.
[27] Liu Sige, Zhou Xiaoxin, Fan Mingtian, Cheng Haozhong. A New Model for Multi-objective Load Curtailment Applied on Deregulated Environment [J]. WSEAS Trans. on Circuit and Systems. (Accepted 2009).
[28]程浩忠,高赐威,马则良,等.多目标电网规划的分层最优化方法[J].中国电机工程学报,2003,(10):11-16.
[29]金华征,程浩忠,杨晓梅,等.模糊集对分析法用于计及ATC的多目标电网规划[J],电力系统自动化,2005,29(21):45-49.
[30]马钦国,张东正,杨柳,等.陕西电网差异化规划的研究[J].陕西电力,2008,36(8):15-17.
[31] Yi Wang, Haozhong Cheng, Chun Wang, et al. Pareto Optimality Based Multi-objective Transmission Planning Considering Transmission Congestion [J]. Electric Power System Research, 2008 78: 1619-1626.
[32]彭锦新,刘天琪,刘辉乐.基于小生境技术的多目标配网重构[J],继电器,2005,33(8):13-17.
[33] R S Chanda, P K Bhattacheriee. Transmission Expansion Planning: A Fuzzy Linear Programming based Approach [J]. Journal of the Institution of Engineers (India). 2003, 84(3): 114-119.
[34] Van Geert, Edwin. Increased Uncertainty A New Challenge for Power System Planners [C]. IEE Colloquium (Digest), 1998, n 200: 1/1-1/6.
[35]朱海峰,程浩忠,张焰.考虑线路被选概率的电网灵活规划方法[J].电力系统自动化,2000,24(17):20-24.
[36]程浩忠,朱海峰,马则良等.基于等微增率准则的电网灵活规划方法[J].上海交通大学学报.2003,37(9):1351-1353.
[37] Saraiva, Tome J. A Fuzzy Approach to Power System Planning and Power Transaction in A Competitive Environment [C]. Proceedings of the IEEE Conference on Decision and Control, 1996, V2: 2196-2201.
[38] EI-Sheikhi, Farag Ali, Billinton Roy. Load Forecast Uncertainty Considerations in Generating Unit Preventive Maintenance Scheduling for Single System [C]. IEE Conference Publication, 1991, n 338: 241-245.
[39] Haozhong Cheng, Haifeng Zhu, Mariesa L. Crow, Gerald B. Sheble. Flexible Method for Power Network Planning Using the Unascertained Number [J]. Electric Power System Research. 2004, 68(1): 41-46.
[40]国务院,《国家突发公共事件总体应急预案》,2006-1-8.
[41]国家电力监管委员会,《国家处置电网大面积停电事件应急预案》,2005-6-23.
[42]范明天,刘思革,张祖平,周孝信.城市供电应急管理研究与展望[J].电网技术,2007(31): 38-41.
[43]刘思革,范明天,张祖平.城市电网应急能力评估技术指标的研究[J].电网技术,2007(11): 17-20.
[44]卢强.我国电力系统灾变防治与经济运行的重大科学问题的研究[J].电力系统自动化.2000(24):1-5.
[45]韩祯祥,曹一家.电力系统的安全性及防治措施[J].电网技术,2004(28):1-6.
[46]陈为化,江全元,曹一家.基于风险理论的复杂电力系统脆弱性评估[J].电网技术,2005(29): 12-17.
[47]杨卫东,徐政,韩祯祥.电力系统灾变防治的现状与目标[J].电力系统自动化.2004(24):7-12.
[48] Mingtian Fan, Zhang Zuping. Optimum Planning Approach of Power System Based on the Assessment of Seismic Risk [C]. The Conference of Anti-disaster on Power System. 2001. 82-85.
[49] Javier Salmeron, Kevin Wood, Ross Baldick. Analysis of Electric Grid Security under Terrorist Threat [J]. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, 2004 19(2): 905-911.
[50]程浩忠等.电力系统规划[M].北京.中国电力出版社:2008.
[51]乔瑞(著),陈跃等(译).风险价值VaR(第二版)[M].北京,中信出版社,2004.10.
[52]周莉梅,范明天.城市电网用户停电损失估算及其评价方法研究[J].中国电力,2006,39(7):70-73.
[53] Li Wenyuan, Mansour Y, Korczynski J K, Mills B J. Application of Transmission Reliability Assessment in Probabilistic Planning of BC Hydro Vancouver South Metro System [J]. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, 1995, 10 (2): 963-970.
[54] Li Wenyuan, Mansour Y, Mills B J, Korczynski J K. Composite System Reliability Evaluation and Probabilistic Planning: BC Hydro’s Practice [J]. 1995 Canadian Electric Association Conference, Vancouver, March 1995.
[55]王一.电力市场环境下多目标输电网优化规划方法的研究[D].上海交通大学博士学位论文,2008.
[56]雷英杰,张善文,李续武等.MATLAB遗传算法工具箱及应用[M].西安电子科技大学出版社,2005.
[57] Li Wenyuan, Jiaqi Zhou, Xiaofu Xiong and Jiping Liu. A Statistic-Fuzzy Technique for Clustering Load Curves [J]. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, 2007, 22 (2): 890-891.
[58] Li Wenyuan, Billinton R. Effects of Bus Load Uncertainty and Correlation in Composite System Adequacy Evaluation [J]. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, 1991, 6 (4): 1522-1529.
[59] Li Wenyuan, J.K. Korczynski. Risk Evaluation of Transmission System Operation Modes: Concept, Method and Application [J]. IEEE Power Engineering Society Winter Meeting, 2002: 1124-1129.
[60] Li Wenyuan, Billinton R. Common Cause Outage Models in Power System Reliability Evaluation [J]. IEEE Trans. On Power System, May 2003, 18(2): 966-968.
[61] R. Billinton, P. K. Vohra, and S. Kumar, Effect of station originated outages in a composite system—adequate evaluation of the IEEE reliability test system [J]. IEEE Trans. on Power App. Syst., 1985, PAS-104(10): 2649–2656.
[62] A. G. Phadke and J. S. Thorp, Expose hidden failures to prevent cascading outages in power systems [J]. IEEE Trans. on Comput. Appl. Power, 1996, 9(3): 20–23.
[63]程浩忠,吴浩.电力系统无功电压稳定[M].北京:中国电力出版社,2004.
[64] A.M. Chebbo, M.R. Irving, M.J.H. Sterling. Voltage collapse proximity indicator behavior animplications [J]. IEE Proceeding Generation Transmission Distribution, 1992, vol. 193, pp. 241-252.
[65] Dragan Vlaisavljevic, Miodrag B.Djukanovic, Dejan J.Sobajic, et al. Fuzzy linear programming based optimal power system rescheduling including preventive redispatch [J]. IEEE Trans. on Power System, 1999, 14(2): 525-531.
[66] W. Ongsakul, K. Chayakaulkheeree. Coordinated fuzzy constrained optimal power dispatch for bilateral contract, balancing e electricity, and ancillary services [J]. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, 2006, 21(2): 593-604.
[67] Liu Sige, Fan Mingtian, Zhou Xiaoxin, Cheng Haozhong. Optimal Load Curtailment using Multi-objective Fuzzy Linear Programming Method [J]. European Trans. on Electrical Power. (Accepted at 2009-6-26).
[68] Liu Sige, Fan Mingtian, Zhou Xiaoxin, Cheng Haozhong. A New Model for Multi-objective Load Curtailment Applied on Deregulated Environment [J]. WSEAS Trans. on Circuits and Systems. 2009, 8(5): 422-431.
[69] W. H. E. Liu and X. Guan. Fuzzy constraint enforcement and control action curtailment in an optimal power flow [J]. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, 1996, vol. 11, pp. 639-645.
[70] J. Kehler, Procuring load curtailment for grid security to Alberta [C]. Proceedings of the IEEE PES Winter Meeting 2001, Columbus, OH: 234-235.
[71] A Lossi, Trade curtailment schemes for the security control of the transmission network in a deregulated environment [J]. International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems, 2002, 24(1): 9-17.
[72] Durgesh P. Manjure, Elham B. Makram, Optimal load curtailment as a bi-criteria program [J]. Electric Power Systems Research, 2003, 66(3): 155-161.
[73] Huang, G.M., Nair, N.-K.C, Voltage stability constrained load curtailment procedure to evaluate power system reliability measures [C]. IEEE Power Engineering Society Winter Meeting, 2002, 2: 761-765.
[74] K. Tomsovic. Fuzzy linear programming approach to the reactive power/voltage control problem [J]. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems. 1992, 7(1): 287-293.
[75] H.J. Zimmermann, Fuzzy set theory and its application [M]. Kluwer, 2nd, ed., Boston, 1994.
[76] F. Palacios-Gomez, L. Lasdon, M. Engquist. Nonlinear Optimization by Successive Linear Programming [J]. Management Science. 1982, 28(4): 1106-1120.
[77] Merrill H M, Wood A J. Risk and Uncertainty in Power System Planning [J]. Electric Power & Energy System, 1991, 13(2): 81-90.
[78]程浩忠,张焰,严正等.电力系统规划[M].北京:中国电力出版社,2008.
[79] Silva I J, Rider M J, Romero R. Transmission Network Expansion Planning Considering Uncertainty in Demand [J]. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, 2006, 21(4): 1565-1573.
[80] Gorenstin B G, Campodonico N M, Costa J P. Power System Expansion Planning under Uncertainty [J]. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, 1993, 8(1): 129-136.
[81]刘宝碇,赵瑞清.随机规划与模糊规划[M].北京:清华大学出版社,1998.
[82]刘宝碇,赵瑞清,王纲.不确定规划及应用[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2003.
[83] Saraiva J T, Miranda V,Pinto L M V G. Impact on Some Planning Decisions from a Fuzzy Modeling [J]. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, 1994, 9(2): 819-825.
[84]朱海峰.不确定性信息的电网灵活规划方法[D].上海交通大学博士学位论文,2000,8.
[85]刘思革,程浩忠.基于粗糙集理论的多目标电网规划最优化模型[J].中国电机工程学报,2007, 27(7):65-69.
[86] A A Chowdhury, Don O Koval. Application of Customer Interruption Costs in Transmission Network Reliability Planning [J]. IEEE Trans. on Industry Applications, 2001, 37(6): 1590-1596.
[87] A A Chowdhury, Don O. Koval. Current Practices and Customer Value-Based Distribution System Reliability Planning [J]. IEEE Trans. on Industry Application, 2004, 40(5): 1174-1182.
[88] R.N.Allan, R.Billinton. Evaluation of reliability worth and value of lost load [J]. IEE Proceedings - Generation, Transmission and Distribution. 1996, 143(2): 171-180.
[89] J. T. Saraiva, et al, Generation/transmission power system reliability evaluation by Monte-Carlo simulation assuming a fuzzy load description [J]. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, 1996, vol. 11, pp. 690-695.
[90] M J Sullivan, B N Suddeth, T Vardell, et al. Interruption costs, customer satisfaction and expectations for service reliability [J]. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems. 1996, 11(3): 989-995.
[91] L Goel and R Billinton. A Procedure for Evaluating Interrupted Energy Assessment Rates in An Overall Electric Power System [J]. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, 1993, 8(3): 929-936.
[92]杨宁,文福拴.计及风险约束的多阶段输电系统规划方法[J].电力系统自动化,2005, 29(4): 28-33.
[93] Charens A, Cooper W W. Chance Constrainted Progarmming, Management Science [J]. 1959, 6(1): 73-79.
[94] Maurice Kendall,Alan Stuart.The Advanced Theory of Statistics [M]. Volume 1, fourth edition, London: C. Griffin, 1977.
[95] Crousillat E O, Dorifner P, Alvarado P, et al. Conflicting Objectives and Risk in Power System Planning [J]. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, 1993, 8(3): 887-893.
[96]魏远航,刘思革,苏剑.基于枚举抽样法的城市电网风险评估[J].电网技术,2008, 32(18): 62-66.
[97]郑风雷,文福拴,吴复立.电力市场环境下的输电投资与扩展规划[J].电力系统自动化,2006,30(9):95-104.
[98] Buygi M O, Balzer G, Shanechi H M, et al. Market-Based Transmission Expansion Planning [J]. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, 2004, 19(4): 2060-2067.
[99]皮埃特罗.潘泽,维普.k.班塞尔著.用VaR度量市场风险[M].机械工业出版社,2001.
[100]肖春来,李朋根,罗荣华.VaR风险控制体系的建立与应用[J],数学的实践与认识,2007,37(6):48-51.
[101]金华真.考虑市场环境的多目标输电网优化规划研究[D].上海交通大学博士学位论文,2007.
[102]任震,吴国玥,黄雯莹.电力市场中计算输电电价的一种新方法[J].中国电机工程学报,2003,23(1):37-40.
[103]王锡凡,王秀丽.电力系统的随机潮流分析[J].西安交通大学学报,1998,22(3):87-97.
[104]胡泽春,王锡凡,张显,等.考虑线路故障的随机潮流[J].中国电机工程学报,2005,25(24):26-33.
[105] Tian W D, Sutanto D, Lee Y B, et al. Cumulant Based Probabilitstic Power System Simulation Using Laguerre Polynomials [J]. IEEE Trans. on Energy Conversion, 1989, 4(4): 567-574.
[106] Liu Sige, Fan Mingtian, Zhou Xiaoxin. Probabilistic Power Flow Calculation Using Sigma-Point Transform Algorithm [C], 2006 IEEE Power-con. PS1-14, C1364.
[107] W. Li, Y. Mansour, J.K. Korczynski, B.J. Mills, Application of Transmission Reliability Assessment in Probabilistic Planning of BC Hydro Vancouver South Metro System [J]. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems. 1995, vol. 10, pp. 964-970.