基于信用评分模型的小微企业贷款的可获得性研究
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摘要
小微企业是维系“国计”和“民生”的重要支柱，应该得到大力的支持和长足的发展，但是其融资状况却与国民经济经济中的重要性形成鲜明对比。为了改善小微企业的融资状况，从国务院、发改委、工信部、金融监管部门到各级地方政府出台了一系列政策措施，尤其针对如何提高小微企业贷款可获得性、拓宽小微企业金融服务覆盖面的问题。而商业银行迫于外部竞争压力和内部利润增长驱动，也需要逐渐调整信贷结构，增加对小微企业贷款的力度。
在中国小微企业贷款业务大发展的时机，深入剖析小微企业贷款可获得性的现状及主要障碍，借鉴国外小企业信用评分模型的做法和经验，探索中国小企业信用评分模型开发的技术和策略，有助于提高中国小微企业贷款的可获得性。
首先，论文分析了中国小微企业贷款的可获得性不高的现状及原因。通过供给和需求比较得出：商业银行在贷款客户选择上偏爱规模较大的企业，冷落微型企业；小微企业贷款的可获得性不高。运用利润函数分析得出，银行在贷款客户选择上的厚此薄彼行为是基于追求利润最大化的动因，并指出应该从降低小微企业贷款的经营成本和贷款风险的角度入手，提高小微企业贷款的利润，解决信贷配给的问题。
然后，论文从基本原理入手论述了小企业信用评分模型对于提高小微企业贷款可获得性的有效性，以Fair Isaac与RMA开发的SBCS模型为例介绍了其基本原理，紧接着运用富国银行的案例，证明了小企业信用评分可以有效降低运营成本和风险，并运用动态博弈模型，对比引入小企业信用评分前后的变化，论述了其在降低小微企业的道德风险，提高贷款的可获得性方面的有效性。
在此基础上，论文从模型开发和应用两个方面具体论述了小企业信用评分模型如何实施。论文详细介绍了模型开发的基本流程和关键技术，包括样本的选择与变量的分组、模型的创建与检验、模型的实施与调整、模型的监测与跟踪；并且运用信息统计量进行变量的筛选和粗分组，结合Logistic回归构建了信用评分模型，并开发了简易、可操作性强的信用评分卡。
最后，论文总结了美国、日本、意大利、俄罗斯等其他国家在开发和应用该模型时的经验和教训，并提出了对中国的借鉴意义。首先分析了中国商业银行应用小企业信用评分模型的现状、不足之处及有利条件，并从商业银行角度提出转变信用观念、合作开发等建议，从政府角度提出转变监管理念、做好数据服务和对小微企业贷款的动态监测等建议。
As an important pillar to maintain“national planning”and“livelihood”，small andmicro enterprises (abbreviated as SMEs) should receive strong support and achievedsignificant development. But its financing situation is contrast in stark to its important roleof national economy. In order to improve SMEs’ credit availability and access to financialservices，a series of policies and measures have been formulated by central and localgovernments，and financial regulatory authorities etc. Meanwhile commercial banks alsoneed to gradually adjust their credit structures and increase loans to SMEs driven byexternal competitive pressures and internal intentions to achieve profit growth.
Under this background，it’s helpful for improving SMEs’ credit availability to carryout this study，whose objective is to explore how to developand apply small business creditscoring (abbreviated as SBCS) model in China，based on in-depth analysis of currentsituation of and main obstacles to SMEs’credit availability，and learning from foreignpractices and experience.
Firstly，this paper analyzes the current situation and reasons of low credit availabilityof Chinese SMEs. Comparisons are carried between supply and demand， that commercialbanks prefer larger enterprise to micro-enterprises，and SMEs are not satisfied with loansthey can obtained. Reasons are found by profit function analysis that discriminatorybehavior on customer choice of bank loans is based on the motive to maximize profit，sothe way to solve credit rationing is to improve profits by reduce operating costs and defaultrisk of loans to SMEs.
Secondly，after introduction to the basic principles of SBCS model with example ofFair Isaac and RMA，this paper discusses effectiveness of the SBCS model to improve thecredit availability of SMEs from two aspects. One is to prove SBCS can reduce operational costs and risks using the case of Wells Fargo. The other is to prove SBCS can reduce moralhazard by dynamic game model，and contrast SMEs’ repayment decision before and afterthe use of SBCS，so as to improve the credit availability of SME’s.
Thirdly，this paper answers how to implement SBCS model in china from two anglesof development and application.The basic development process and key technologies aredetailed from sample selection and variable grouping，creating and testing，implementationand adjustment，monitoring and tracking of the model. In order to demonstrate aboveprocess，this paper continues to construct a credit scoring model and a simple，operativecredit score card through logistic regression，using information statistic to screen andcoarsely group variables.
Lastly， this paper summarizes experiences and lessons about how to develop andapply SBCS model in the other countries，such as United States，Japan，Italy，Russia etc.，and discuss their reference value to China. Based analyzing SBCS model’s applicationstatus，deficiencies and favorable conditions in China，suggestions are made from theperspective of commercial banks and government respectively，around changing creditconcept and cooperative development for the previous，and supplying with better dataservice and dynamic monitoring of loans to SMEs for the latter.
在中国小微企业贷款业务大发展的时机，深入剖析小微企业贷款可获得性的现状及主要障碍，借鉴国外小企业信用评分模型的做法和经验，探索中国小企业信用评分模型开发的技术和策略，有助于提高中国小微企业贷款的可获得性。
首先，论文分析了中国小微企业贷款的可获得性不高的现状及原因。通过供给和需求比较得出：商业银行在贷款客户选择上偏爱规模较大的企业，冷落微型企业；小微企业贷款的可获得性不高。运用利润函数分析得出，银行在贷款客户选择上的厚此薄彼行为是基于追求利润最大化的动因，并指出应该从降低小微企业贷款的经营成本和贷款风险的角度入手，提高小微企业贷款的利润，解决信贷配给的问题。
然后，论文从基本原理入手论述了小企业信用评分模型对于提高小微企业贷款可获得性的有效性，以Fair Isaac与RMA开发的SBCS模型为例介绍了其基本原理，紧接着运用富国银行的案例，证明了小企业信用评分可以有效降低运营成本和风险，并运用动态博弈模型，对比引入小企业信用评分前后的变化，论述了其在降低小微企业的道德风险，提高贷款的可获得性方面的有效性。
在此基础上，论文从模型开发和应用两个方面具体论述了小企业信用评分模型如何实施。论文详细介绍了模型开发的基本流程和关键技术，包括样本的选择与变量的分组、模型的创建与检验、模型的实施与调整、模型的监测与跟踪；并且运用信息统计量进行变量的筛选和粗分组，结合Logistic回归构建了信用评分模型，并开发了简易、可操作性强的信用评分卡。
最后，论文总结了美国、日本、意大利、俄罗斯等其他国家在开发和应用该模型时的经验和教训，并提出了对中国的借鉴意义。首先分析了中国商业银行应用小企业信用评分模型的现状、不足之处及有利条件，并从商业银行角度提出转变信用观念、合作开发等建议，从政府角度提出转变监管理念、做好数据服务和对小微企业贷款的动态监测等建议。
As an important pillar to maintain“national planning”and“livelihood”，small andmicro enterprises (abbreviated as SMEs) should receive strong support and achievedsignificant development. But its financing situation is contrast in stark to its important roleof national economy. In order to improve SMEs’ credit availability and access to financialservices，a series of policies and measures have been formulated by central and localgovernments，and financial regulatory authorities etc. Meanwhile commercial banks alsoneed to gradually adjust their credit structures and increase loans to SMEs driven byexternal competitive pressures and internal intentions to achieve profit growth.
Under this background，it’s helpful for improving SMEs’ credit availability to carryout this study，whose objective is to explore how to developand apply small business creditscoring (abbreviated as SBCS) model in China，based on in-depth analysis of currentsituation of and main obstacles to SMEs’credit availability，and learning from foreignpractices and experience.
Firstly，this paper analyzes the current situation and reasons of low credit availabilityof Chinese SMEs. Comparisons are carried between supply and demand， that commercialbanks prefer larger enterprise to micro-enterprises，and SMEs are not satisfied with loansthey can obtained. Reasons are found by profit function analysis that discriminatorybehavior on customer choice of bank loans is based on the motive to maximize profit，sothe way to solve credit rationing is to improve profits by reduce operating costs and defaultrisk of loans to SMEs.
Secondly，after introduction to the basic principles of SBCS model with example ofFair Isaac and RMA，this paper discusses effectiveness of the SBCS model to improve thecredit availability of SMEs from two aspects. One is to prove SBCS can reduce operational costs and risks using the case of Wells Fargo. The other is to prove SBCS can reduce moralhazard by dynamic game model，and contrast SMEs’ repayment decision before and afterthe use of SBCS，so as to improve the credit availability of SME’s.
Thirdly，this paper answers how to implement SBCS model in china from two anglesof development and application.The basic development process and key technologies aredetailed from sample selection and variable grouping，creating and testing，implementationand adjustment，monitoring and tracking of the model. In order to demonstrate aboveprocess，this paper continues to construct a credit scoring model and a simple，operativecredit score card through logistic regression，using information statistic to screen andcoarsely group variables.
Lastly， this paper summarizes experiences and lessons about how to develop andapply SBCS model in the other countries，such as United States，Japan，Italy，Russia etc.，and discuss their reference value to China. Based analyzing SBCS model’s applicationstatus，deficiencies and favorable conditions in China，suggestions are made from theperspective of commercial banks and government respectively，around changing creditconcept and cooperative development for the previous，and supplying with better dataservice and dynamic monitoring of loans to SMEs for the latter.
引文
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