重大危险源概率风险评价应用研究
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摘要
概率风险评价方法作为一种真正意义上定量评价方法在众多安全评价方法中有明显的优势。目前,在国内外的重大项目中被大量的应用,并得到了专家和工程技术人员的认可。但由于一些缺陷,使得该方法并没有在日常的危险品评价项目中应用。
论文在学习现有概率风险评价方法的研究成果和实践积累的基础上,针对方法存在的问题进行了初步的改进。在一定程度上拓宽了该方法的应用范围。对于促进我国安全评价事业的发展具有一定的理论和实践意义。
概率风险评价方法分主要分为,危险源辨识、概率估计、事故后果评估、确定可接受风险、对评价结构反馈5个方面的内容。本文主要从概率估计、事故后果评估、评价后管理这几个方面进行讨论。在论文最后用一个民爆仓库的重大危险源作为实例,说明对传统概率风险评价方法的改进是科学的。主要的内容包括:
1、针对概率风险评价时基本的失效数据匮乏,且获得效率低下的问题。应用到了模糊数学的方法对单一的概率数据处理成为一个模糊化的置信区间。这样只要应用相关的数据确定事故发生的大概数值。再结合评价人员的经验确定事故概率值与所评价项目多的隶属度,就可以将用这个置信区间来分析说明事故的发生的频率。这样就一方面满足了概率风险评价方法要求的准确性,另一方面又可以幅度提高评价的效率。
2、概率风险评价的核心是事故树,但事故树自身存在着一些缺陷。这在一定程度上制约了概率风险评价方法的应用。针对事故树方法不能分析事故的多元状态、相关子事件影响和事故发展的过程这三个主要矛盾。应用到了贝叶斯网络方法和事件序列图方法来修正和补充。
3、本文讨论了文实例所用的方法,即燃烧和冲击波的后果影响。对以燃烧,本文主要采用了元胞自动机的方法结合模糊数来仿真分析火灾蔓延的趋势。解决了传统方法不能仿真分析火灾蔓延趋势的劣势。对以爆炸,应用有限元计算对爆炸后冲击波的影响进行分析。由于仓库应用了防护措施,应用传统方法不能分析这些防护措施对爆炸后的冲击波是否有效性控制。
4、可接受风险的确定是一件很困难的事情。在各个国家都是很困难的事情。在本文中,综合考虑各方面因素,应用我国重大危险源分级标准和国外同行业标准进行计算确定了一个社会可接受风险度。从计算结果上看是符合实际评价需要的。
Probability Risk Assessment (PRA) is a quantitative evaluation and its advantages have been emerged when compared with other safety assessment methods. At present, this method has been applied in significant projects all over the world. However, PRA is not applied in the field of hazardous chemicals because of its deficiency.
Based on the practices accumulation of PRA, some improvements have been proposed which point to the problems existed. Meanwhile, application range of PRA is wider than before to some extents. This has a positive effect to develop safety assessment in our country.
Probability Risk Assessment can be classified into 5 parts, including Hazard identification, probability estimates, the accident consequence assessment, determine acceptable risk and the feedback on the evaluation of the structure. In this paper, it discussed and focused on probability estimates, the accident consequence assessment, the feedback on the evaluation of the structure. An example about fireworks warehouse as major hazards is quoted to demonstrate that it is scientific and effective to improve the traditional PRA. The main contents include:
1. Fuzzy Mathematics solved deficiency of basic data and problems of obtaining data ineffectively because of its functions to convert single probability data into confidential interval. Thus, applied Fuzzy Mathematics into PRA can satisfy the precision of PRA and improve the assessment efficiency as well.
2. The core of PRA is FTA, however, FTA has some defaults and limits the application of PRA to some extents. In this paper, Bayesian networks method (BN) and Event Sequence Diagram (ESD) can solve and correct 3 main contradictions, including multiple state of analyzing accident, relative effects of sub-event and process of accident development. All of these 3 parts cannot be analyzed by FTA.
3. In this paper, effects of fire spread and shock are analyzed through an example. Cellular Automata (CA) and Fuzzy Mathematics simulation combined method is used to analyze the trend of fire spread when discussing fire spread. Effects of shock after exploration are analyzed by FEM. These methods solve the disadvantages of traditional one which it is disable to simulate.
4. It is difficult to confirm acceptable Risk all over the world. In this paper, acceptable risk degree is calculated and determined by considering each factor. Based on the results, all of these acceptable risk degrees can satisfy the needs of practical assessment.
论文在学习现有概率风险评价方法的研究成果和实践积累的基础上,针对方法存在的问题进行了初步的改进。在一定程度上拓宽了该方法的应用范围。对于促进我国安全评价事业的发展具有一定的理论和实践意义。
概率风险评价方法分主要分为,危险源辨识、概率估计、事故后果评估、确定可接受风险、对评价结构反馈5个方面的内容。本文主要从概率估计、事故后果评估、评价后管理这几个方面进行讨论。在论文最后用一个民爆仓库的重大危险源作为实例,说明对传统概率风险评价方法的改进是科学的。主要的内容包括:
1、针对概率风险评价时基本的失效数据匮乏,且获得效率低下的问题。应用到了模糊数学的方法对单一的概率数据处理成为一个模糊化的置信区间。这样只要应用相关的数据确定事故发生的大概数值。再结合评价人员的经验确定事故概率值与所评价项目多的隶属度,就可以将用这个置信区间来分析说明事故的发生的频率。这样就一方面满足了概率风险评价方法要求的准确性,另一方面又可以幅度提高评价的效率。
2、概率风险评价的核心是事故树,但事故树自身存在着一些缺陷。这在一定程度上制约了概率风险评价方法的应用。针对事故树方法不能分析事故的多元状态、相关子事件影响和事故发展的过程这三个主要矛盾。应用到了贝叶斯网络方法和事件序列图方法来修正和补充。
3、本文讨论了文实例所用的方法,即燃烧和冲击波的后果影响。对以燃烧,本文主要采用了元胞自动机的方法结合模糊数来仿真分析火灾蔓延的趋势。解决了传统方法不能仿真分析火灾蔓延趋势的劣势。对以爆炸,应用有限元计算对爆炸后冲击波的影响进行分析。由于仓库应用了防护措施,应用传统方法不能分析这些防护措施对爆炸后的冲击波是否有效性控制。
4、可接受风险的确定是一件很困难的事情。在各个国家都是很困难的事情。在本文中,综合考虑各方面因素,应用我国重大危险源分级标准和国外同行业标准进行计算确定了一个社会可接受风险度。从计算结果上看是符合实际评价需要的。
Probability Risk Assessment (PRA) is a quantitative evaluation and its advantages have been emerged when compared with other safety assessment methods. At present, this method has been applied in significant projects all over the world. However, PRA is not applied in the field of hazardous chemicals because of its deficiency.
Based on the practices accumulation of PRA, some improvements have been proposed which point to the problems existed. Meanwhile, application range of PRA is wider than before to some extents. This has a positive effect to develop safety assessment in our country.
Probability Risk Assessment can be classified into 5 parts, including Hazard identification, probability estimates, the accident consequence assessment, determine acceptable risk and the feedback on the evaluation of the structure. In this paper, it discussed and focused on probability estimates, the accident consequence assessment, the feedback on the evaluation of the structure. An example about fireworks warehouse as major hazards is quoted to demonstrate that it is scientific and effective to improve the traditional PRA. The main contents include:
1. Fuzzy Mathematics solved deficiency of basic data and problems of obtaining data ineffectively because of its functions to convert single probability data into confidential interval. Thus, applied Fuzzy Mathematics into PRA can satisfy the precision of PRA and improve the assessment efficiency as well.
2. The core of PRA is FTA, however, FTA has some defaults and limits the application of PRA to some extents. In this paper, Bayesian networks method (BN) and Event Sequence Diagram (ESD) can solve and correct 3 main contradictions, including multiple state of analyzing accident, relative effects of sub-event and process of accident development. All of these 3 parts cannot be analyzed by FTA.
3. In this paper, effects of fire spread and shock are analyzed through an example. Cellular Automata (CA) and Fuzzy Mathematics simulation combined method is used to analyze the trend of fire spread when discussing fire spread. Effects of shock after exploration are analyzed by FEM. These methods solve the disadvantages of traditional one which it is disable to simulate.
4. It is difficult to confirm acceptable Risk all over the world. In this paper, acceptable risk degree is calculated and determined by considering each factor. Based on the results, all of these acceptable risk degrees can satisfy the needs of practical assessment.
引文
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[10]陈志军.重大危险源(危化品)的辨识和监管研究.沈阳航空工业学院[D].20070201
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[12]张超,马存宝,胡云兰.基于贝叶斯网络的故障树定量分析法研究.弹箭与制导学报.2005.25卷2期
[13]朱国锋,吴剑国.潜艇事故概率的模糊事件树分析.
[14]石化企业重大危险设备模糊概率风险评价方法
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[17]龚时雨,谭林.基于事件序列图法的装备故障风险分析.武器装备自动化.2006,25卷12期
[18]张红鸽.基于灰色系统理论的危险源辨识方法研究.太原理工大学硕士学位论文.2007
[19]陈庆斌,秦树人.灰色预测法在机械测试中的应用.中国测试技术.2007,5(33):136-134.
[20]白金泽.LS—DYNA3D理论基础与实例分析.科学出版社.2005
[21]杨涛春,李国强.接触爆炸载荷下钢—混凝土组合梁的破坏模式研究.结构工程师.2009,1(25):120-124.
[22]卓红艳.可靠性指标分配方法研究.第五届中国测试学术会议论文集.2008,5
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[27]米双山,刘东升,徐亚卿.基于流固耦合方法的爆炸仿真分析.先进制造与管理.2008,2(27):33-35
[28]熊灿,赵金城,虞青俊,范寿昌.钢筋结构爆炸后碎块抛射和散布的研究.爆炸.2009,2(26):5-9
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[30]陶平,张小英,马恒亮.基于元胞自动机模型的人员疏散仿真研究.计算机仿真.2009,10(26):319-322
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[2]马建红.重大危险源监控系统概率风险评价方法研究论文[D].北京交通大学硕士学位论文.2007
[3]张景林,崔国章.安全系统工程.2002
[4]杜红兵,王雪莉.基于贝叶斯网络的可控飞行撞地事故原因分析方法.安全与环境学报[J].2009,10,9卷5期
[5] Boudali H,Dugan J B.A New Bayesian Network Approach to Solve Dynamic Fault Tress[A].Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium [C].Alexandria:2005,451-456.
[6] Fenton N E, Littlewood B, Neil M,strigini L,Wright D R,Courtois P-J.Bayesian Belief Network Model for the Safety Assessment of Nuclear Computer-based Systems[R],London: Centre for Software Reliability,City University,1998.
[7]戴雪松.重大事故多米诺效应研究[D].东北大学硕士学位论文.2005
[8]陈明,张京妹.控制系统可靠性设计[M].西北工业大学出版社.2006
[9]张连文,郭海鹏.贝叶斯网引论[M].科学出版社.2006
[10]陈志军.重大危险源(危化品)的辨识和监管研究.沈阳航空工业学院[D].20070201
[11]郑小平,高金吉,刘梦婷.事故预测理论与方法[M].清华大学出版社.2009
[12]张超,马存宝,胡云兰.基于贝叶斯网络的故障树定量分析法研究.弹箭与制导学报.2005.25卷2期
[13]朱国锋,吴剑国.潜艇事故概率的模糊事件树分析.
[14]石化企业重大危险设备模糊概率风险评价方法
[15]周春成.事件序列图法方法及其应用研究.中国人民解放军国防科学技术大学硕士论文2003
[16] N.Sin,Risk Asscssmant for Dynamic Systems:all Overview.Reliability Engineering and System Safety,V01.43,43—73,1994.
[17]龚时雨,谭林.基于事件序列图法的装备故障风险分析.武器装备自动化.2006,25卷12期
[18]张红鸽.基于灰色系统理论的危险源辨识方法研究.太原理工大学硕士学位论文.2007
[19]陈庆斌,秦树人.灰色预测法在机械测试中的应用.中国测试技术.2007,5(33):136-134.
[20]白金泽.LS—DYNA3D理论基础与实例分析.科学出版社.2005
[21]杨涛春,李国强.接触爆炸载荷下钢—混凝土组合梁的破坏模式研究.结构工程师.2009,1(25):120-124.
[22]卓红艳.可靠性指标分配方法研究.第五届中国测试学术会议论文集.2008,5
[23]刘珍妮,何国伟,周正伐,周传珍,廖炯生.可靠性工程.宇航出版社.1995
[24]李漾,周昌玉,张伯君.石油化工工业可接受风险水平研究.安全与环境学报.2007,1(6):116-120
[25]郑欣,许开立.安全评价模式的建立.工业安全与环保.2007,8(11):59-61.
[26]邓春梅,许金余,沈刘军.爆炸作用下坑道被覆结构局部破坏效应数值分析.弹箭与制导学报,2009,1(29):148-150
[27]米双山,刘东升,徐亚卿.基于流固耦合方法的爆炸仿真分析.先进制造与管理.2008,2(27):33-35
[28]熊灿,赵金城,虞青俊,范寿昌.钢筋结构爆炸后碎块抛射和散布的研究.爆炸.2009,2(26):5-9
[29]谭振东,张宇,冯日儒,王广东.基于距离综合评价与神经网络的风险概率评价模型研究.军事交通学院学报.2008,3(10):10-14
[30]陶平,张小英,马恒亮.基于元胞自动机模型的人员疏散仿真研究.计算机仿真.2009,10(26):319-322
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