摘要
“国以农为本,农以种为先”,形象地概括了种业之于国家和国民经济的重要地位和作用。种子产业,简称种业,是将传统农业的品种选育、种子生产、加工、包装、储运以及种子营销转化成工业化管理的现代农业的重要组成部分。农作物种子是农业生产最基本、最重要的生产资料,是农业科技的重要载体。种子产业是农业最重要的基础产业,掌握着农业竞争的主动权。
目前,国际上大多将种业研究纳入农业研究之中,国内学者对于种业的关注多从种子产业的宏观视角或从种业企业的微观视角加以研究,而从种业供应链的中观视角所进行的研究几乎还是空白。本论文将现代供应链管理思想与中国种业现实相结合,从种业运营模式多元化的基本思想出发,提出一种有利于中国种业发展的新型运营模式。以种业供应链四纬度结构模型为基础,应用系统论、控制论、电子商务理论等多学科理论,对种业供应链进行管理与控制,为推动种业育、繁、推、销的一体化献计献策。
本论文从定性与定量两方面对种业供应链运营的相关内容进行分析与研究,主要做了以下工作:
第2章种业供应链的结构模型,以前人已有的供应链结构模型研究成果为基础,结合种业供应链的特征,提出种业供应链四维度结构模型。对模型的构建、分析方法进行阐述,并结合实例对种业供应链四维度结构模型的实施策略进行探讨。
第3章种业供应链的运营模式,对中国现有的种业运营模式进行总结,提出中国种业运营的创新战略,应用模糊递阶大系统理论,结合种业运营的创新战略,提出一类有利于中国种业发展的供应链运营模式:基于模糊多级递阶大系统模型的种业供应链运营模式。
第4章种业供应链协调决策层的运营管控,对SCOR模型的绩效评价作简要介绍并给出种业供应链的主要绩效评价指标,应用模糊定性综合评价法对种业供应链运营能力进行评价。应用无模型控制理论,研究种业供应链的风险管控。
第5章种业供应链递阶层自适应协调控制,简要介绍了种业供应链自适应协调控制的模型基础:供应链的驱动模式、客户生命周期模型以及自适应协调控制模型。界定种业供应链的驱动模式是一种用户需求拉动与新品研发推动的推—拉模式,并应用自适应协调控制理论,对种业供应链协调层的参数进行辨识,并对递阶层子系统的协调控制进行研究。
第6章种业供应链运营层的管控,依据种业流程对商品种子的新品研发子系统、商品种子生产繁育与加工子系统、商品种子营销子系统的系统特征进行定性描述,并应用最优控制、自适应控制等控制理论与方法对其运营管控进行研究,提供实用的管控模型。
第7章种业供应链的信息整合,分析种业供应链的运营及其信息整合之间的关系,应用层次分析法、问卷调查法和PRA用户参与评价法对中国种子消费者特征及其信息需求进行实证研究。构建了种业供应链信息整合能力测度指标体系并给出了实例。对中国种业供应链信息整合环境进行分析并给出相应的信息整合对策。
本论文的主要创新点如下:
1.种业供应链四维度结构模型
构建了种业供应链运营研究的基础——种业供应链四维度结构模型,使研究对象存在于一个可控制易描述的研究环境之中。在主体、客体及流程三维之外,加入种业运营所特有的运营层次维度,兼顾了种业运营的共性与特性。
2.基于模糊多级递阶大系统模型的种业供应链运营及其管控
在总结中国现有种业运营模式的基础上提出了中国种业运营的创新战略,基于此创新战略,本着种业运营模式多元化发展的基本思想,提出了一类基于模糊多级递阶大系统模型的种业供应链运营模式,并对该运营模式的三个层次进行了较深入的研究。这类运营模式的提出对种业的整体优化与种业供应链的协调运营可起到一定的指导作用;作为一种管控手段,具有较强的可操作性。
3.种业供应链的信息整合分析与对策
创新之处主要有:其一,对中国种子消费者特征及其信息需求进行了实证研究,应用层次分析法、问卷调查法、PRA用户参与评价法等方法获取中国种子消费者特征资料,并分析其信息需求,为中国种业供应链用户需求拉动的运营策略实施提供实证基础;其二,对种业供应链信息整合能力的测度研究,构建了种业供应链信息整合能力测度指标体系并通过实例加以应用,为种业供应链信息整合策略的实施提供指导依据。
Seed is not only the most fundamental and important agricultural capital goods but a significant carrier of agricultural science and technology. Seed industry is the most important basis for the modern agricultural industry. Seed industry includes the whole process from genetic selection, seed production, seed processing, seed packaging, seed storage, seed transportation to seed distribution.
Most papers researched on seed industry from the view of seed industrial chain or from the view of seed enterprises, the dissertation researched on seed industry from the view of seed industry supply chain, which also considered the fact in China. As a result, the dissertation brought forward a new operating mode in favor of seed industry. The dissertation summarized the researches on seed industry. In order to give some new view of seed industry to promote its development, the dissertation used system theory, control theory and electronic business theory to study on the problem.All the studies were all based on the four-dimensional structured model of seed industry supply chain.
The author has made qualitative and quantitative research on the main issues of the operating of seed industry supply chain. The dissertation has discussed the following issues:
Chapter 2:The structural model of seed industry supply chain, according to the characteristics of seed industry supply chain, a four-dimensional structural model was established which was based on the previous studied results. In this chapter, the author not only researched on the construction, analysis methods, but also described the stategy of the model with examples. The author built four-dimensional structural model as the research framework for the following chapters.
Chapter 3:The operating mode of seed industry supply chain, the dissertation analyzed the existing operating mode in China. The author used the fuzzy multi-level hierarchical large-scale system theory, brought forward a new operating mode:the operating mode based on fuzzy multi-level hierarchical large-scale system.
Chapter 4:The management&control of seed industry supply chain coordination decision-making level. The author gave a brief description of performance evaluation of the SCOR model. And then the operating ability of seed industry supply chain was measured by use of the qualitative fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. The dissertation also discussed how to management seed industry supply chain risks using of no model self-adaptive control theory.
Chapter 5:The self-adaptive control of middle level based on seed customers' demand pulling and R&D pushing. In this chapter, some basis models were introduced:the driven mode of SC, the customer life cycle model and the self-adaptive control model. On the base of these three models, the dissertation put forward the driven mode of seed industry supply chain. The driven mode was the driven mode based on seed customers'demand pulling and R&D pushing. At last, the dissertation researched on the parameters identification, parameters prediction and the middle level of SC coordination management.
Chapter 6:The management&control of seed industry supply chain operating level. In this chapter, the dissertation researched on the subsystem of seed industry supply chain respectively. These subsystems are:the seed R&D system, the seed production and processing system and the seed distribution system.
Chapter 7:The information integration of seed industry supply chain, firstly, the dissertation analyzed the relationship between the operating and the information integration of seed industry supply chain. Secondly, the author studied the characteristics of seed customers in China and their information demands by using of AHP and empirical research etc. Thirdly, the author studied on the measure of information integration ablity of seed industry supply chain.The author analyzed the environment of seed industry supply chain information integration and gave some methods of the problem.
The main innovations of the dissertation are as follows:
1. Four-dimensional structured model of seed industry supply chain
The author constructed four-dimensional structured model of seed industry supply chain on which was the base of seed industry supply chain operating mode. The model made the research object exited in a controlled and easy descriptive environment. There were three-dimensional:the main body, the object and processes. The author added the forth dimensional that is the degree of SC operating. The author not only considered the common characteristics but considered the specific characteristics of the seed industry.
2. The operating mode based on fuzzy multi-level hierarchical large-scale system and its management&control
The dissertation presented the operating mode of seed industry supply chain based on fuzzy multi-level hierarchical large-scale system. And the author gave deep research on the three levels of the mode. The proposal model not only optimized the seed industry coordination operation, but played a guiding role in the operation as a means of control. The study result provided a simple and practical tool for the integration implementation of seed industry supply chain in China.
3. The information integration method of seed industry supply chain
The end customers of seed industry supply chain in China were unique. The author used of customer relationship management theories and used of PRA evaluation method and fuzzy comprehensive method made the qualitative indicators into quantitative indicators. The author measured the information integration ablity of seed industry supply chain.
引文
[1]佟屏亚.发挥民间种子协会的服务职能[J].种子科技,VOL24.2006,(5):1-3
[2]靖飞.江苏省水稻育种科研机构改革模式利弊分析[J].江苏农业科学,2007,(3)
[3]宋晓明.立足国情探求中国种业市场发展道路[J].农产品市场周刊,2005,(19)
[4]盛焕银,徐艳.私繁、乱制、套购种子的危害[J].种子,2008,(8)
[5]王晖.农村种子营销大户的现状及发展研究[J].种子世界,2008,(9)
[6]王丘,汤兵勇.种子消费者特征与我国种业企业创新路径选择[J].中国种业,2010,(10)
[7]叶传剑等.杂交水稻种子产业化生产基地建设与规范化管理探讨[J].杂交水稻,2004,(6)
[8]田中国.从隆平高科的发展看中国杂交水稻种子产业的腾飞[J].杂交水稻,2003,(5)
[9]宋保谦.浅析“郑单958”的特点及推广应用前景[J].农业科技通讯,2006,(10):9-10
[10]李登海.谈中国玉米种业发展问题[N].农民日报,2008-3-19
[11]吴奇峰,李艳.新疆加工番茄种子行业存在问题及对策分析[J].种子,2011,(8)
[12]王春萌,杨红旗.中国马铃薯产业制约因素及发展对策[J].种子,2011,(5)
[13]李基平,陈剑英.云南省林木种苗质量检验信息系统建设初探[J].种子,2011,(1)
[14]俞敏辉,戴美莲.蔬菜种子营销渠道及模式选择[J].种子世界,2006,(8)
[15]Damle Vivek Madhav.Analysis of the Indian vegetable seed industry[D].PhD Paper, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign,2000
[16]GermainN.Piehop,HassanS.Mndiga..Essentials of Modem Marketing Management&Supply Chain Systems for Vegetable Seed Companies[M].The World Vegetable Center Publieation,2007
[17]乐明凯.关注邮政营销种子[J].中国种业,2007,(11)
[18]Duarte Jason de Oliveira. Effects of the biotechnology and intellectual property right law in the seed industry[D].PhD Paper, the University of Nebraska-Lincoln,2001
[19]罗忠玲.印度种业政策的改革与影响[J].世界农业,2005,(1)
[20]王雷.打造“核动力航母”应对国际种业竞争[J].种子导刊,2009,(12)
[21]李梅森.借鉴国外经验发展中国种子事业[J].种子科技,1993,(4)
[22]朱洲.中国种子产业发展研究[D].华中农业大学博士学位论文,2005
[23]黄毅.中国粮食种业分销效率研究[D].中南大学博士学位论文,2010
[24]郑安俭,杨静东,张玮等.中国种业应对国际竞争对策初探[J].中国种业,2010,(11):12-16
[25]李猛.民族种业发展现状与对策[J].中国种业,2010,(11):10-14
[26]曾松亭.中国种子企业竞争力研究[J].中国农业科学院博士学位论文,2006
[27]王海洋,张向召,郭军伟.谈种子企业发展战略的选择[J].中国种业,2008,(17)
[28]田战旗.刍议种子企业的物流决策[J].种子科技,2006,(2)
[29]李瑞云.“牛皮鞭效应”对种子生产供应企业的影响与对策[J].中国农业信息,2008,(5)
[30]李庆,左晓斌.电子商务在种子企业的应用[J].种子科技,2007,(5)
[31]唐欣,冯云.西方杆标管理理念及其对中国种业企业的启示[J].中国种业,2004,(3)
[32]王子文,邵长勇,孔繁涛等.“4P”与“4C”理论在种子营销实践上的应用初探[J].中国种业,2010,(3):9-12
[33]唐欣,邵长勇,张晓明等.现阶段中国种子产业的经济学特征分析[J].中国种业,2011,(12):7-11
[34]吕先国.以“先锋良种”看定位理论运用[J].中国种业,2011,(3):1-4
[35]陈燕娟,邓岩.知识产权与种子企业发展战略协同机制研究[J]. 2011,(11):1-4
[36]高雅霞,颜廷武,邵长勇等.蓝海战略对中国种子产业发展的启示[J].中国种业,2010,(12):8-11
[37]Min H,Zhou G. Supply chain modeling:past, present and future[J].Computers & Industrial Engineering,2002,(43):231-249
[38]Giachetti R.E., Martinez L.D., Saenz O.A., Chen C.S. Analysis of the structural measures of flexibility and agility using a measurement theoretical framework[J].International Journal of Production Economics,2003,86(1):47-62.
[39]Cortegoso V. Mid-Holocene hunters in the Andes Mountains:Environment, resources and technological strategies [J]. Quaternary International,2005,132(1):71-80
[40]高峻峻,王迎军,郭亚军,吕芹.供应链管理模型的分类和研究进展[J].中国管理科学,VOL13.NO5.2005, (10)
[41]陈原,王国顺.供应链协调研究述评及展望[J].生产力研究,2008,(2):170-174
[42]陈原.国内外供应链关系协调管理研究述评及展望[J].改革与战略,2007,(8):29-33
[43]王世雄,徐琪,郑兴旺.国外供应链风险管理研究进展与未来展望[J].物流科技,2010,(8):93-96
[44]陈阳,叶怀珍.需求不确定下的供应链精柔协同研究综述[J].铁道运输与经济,VOL32.NO12:73-77
[45]陈宝.企业动态联盟的伙伴选择与利益分配研究[D].四川大学博士学位论文,2004
[46]邓丽明,黄水平,游明忠.虚拟企业约束机制研究[J].商业研究,2005,(8)
[47]姜方桃.供应链管理绩效评价的模糊综合评价法[J].统计与决策,2006,(18):160-163
[48]曲盛恩.供应链绩效评价的系统研究[D].哈尔滨商业大学博士学位论文,2006
[49]姜方桃.集成化供应链管理的绩效评价研究[D].河海大学博士论文,2006
[50]杨建华.战略供应链综合绩效评价体系与实施方法研究[D].天津大学博士学位论文,2004
[51]郑培.动态供应链绩效评价方法研究[D].湖南大学博士论文,2008
[52]杨瑾,尤建新,蔡依平.产业集群环境下供应链系统快速响应能力评价[D].中国管理科学,VOL 15.NO1.2007, (2):34-39
[53]Ellram. Supply Chain Management[J]. Internal Journal of Physical Distribution and Logistics Management,1991,(21):12-33.
[54]Lee,H.L.,Billington C. Managing supply chain inventory:pitfalls and opportunities[J]. Sloan Management Review,1992,33:65-73
[55]Saunders M. J. Chains, pipelines, networks and value stream:the role, nature and value of such metaphors in forming perceptions of the task of purchasing and supply management. Fist Worldwide Research Symposium on Purchasing and Supply Chain Management. Tempe, Arizona, 1995:476-485.
[56]尹钢.多级递阶的供应链集成设计模型及相关决策问题研究[D].华东理工大学博士论文,2005
[57]徐建平,汤兵勇,熊励.信息服务业大系统的协调发展控制模型研究[J].情报杂志.2005,(12):27-28
[58]Chen CL, Lee WC. Multi objective optimization of multi-echelon supply chain networks with uncertain product demands and prices[J].Computers and Chemical Engineering,2004,28:1131-1144.
[59]Gannoccaro I, Pontrandolfo P., Scozzi B.A fuzzy echelon approach for inventory management in supply chains[J].European Journal of Operational Research.2003.149,185-196
[60]杜朴,赵涛.工业共生网络信息集成化框架研究[J].组合机床与自动化加工技术,2008,(12)
[61]吕贤睿,单汩源.供应链管理信息集成与共享的技术实现[J].长春理工大学学报,2006,(6)
[62]杨海蔚,董安邦.供应链管理中的信息集成[J].工业工程,2002,(5)
[63]梁静.基于第三方物流供应链的信息不对称及信息共享激励研究[D].华中科技大学博士论文,2006
[64]李雄诒,严昕,李惠.不完全信息条件下供应链管理协同策略研究[J].中外管理,2008,(12)
[65]员巧云,刘斌.逆向供应链反其道而行IT路[J].信息系统工程,2007,(2):51-52
[66]Chopra S, Meindl P. Supply chain management:strategy, planning and operation [M].Upper Saddle River, NJ:Prentice Hall,2001
[67]Shapiro J. Modeling the supply chain [M].北京:中信出版社,2001
[68]Beamon B M. Supply chain design and analysis:Models and methods [J].International Journal of Production Economics,1998, (55):281-294.
[69]Min H, Zhou G. Supply chain modeling:past, present and future [J].Computers & Industrial Engineering,2002,43:231-249.
[70]高峻峻,王迎军,郭亚军,吕芹.供应链管理模型的分类和研究进展[J].中国管理科学,VOL13.NO5.2005, (10)
[71]陈志祥.电子化供应链研究的国际动态与述评[J]计算机应用研究,2005,(3)
[72]王沙沙.基于博弈论的省内民营种业供应链定价策略研究[D].合肥工业大学硕士论文,2009
[73]李波,杨吉德,李兰华.中国种子产业运营模式的研究[J].中国种业,2011,(12):4-7
[74]Van Roekel J., Willems S., Boselie D. M.. Agri-supply chain management:stimulate cross-border trade in developing countries and emerging economics[EB/OL].http://Inwebl8.worldbank.org/ESSD/ardext.nsf/26ByDocName/BuildingAgri-Supply-Chain IssuesandGuidelines/$FILE/AgriSupplyChains.pdf,2002.
[75]Aruoma O.I. The impact of food regulation on the food supply chain[J].Toxicology,2006(221):119-127
[76]Tucker S.N., Mohamed S., Johnston D.R, et al. Hampson K.D. Building and construction industries Science and Resources, supply chain project(domestic)[R].The Australian Department of Industry,2001
[77]Jan van Roekel,Ronald Kopicki,Carry J.E.,et al. Building Agri-Supply Chains:Issues and Guideline[EB/OL].http://lnwebl8.worldbank.org/ESSD/ardext.nsf/26ByDocName/BuildingAgri-Supply-Chain Issues and Guidelines/$FILE/Agri-Supply Chains.pdf,2002
[78]Jan van Roekel,Sabine Willems,Dave M.Boselie.Agri-Supply Chain Management[EB/OL].http://info.worldbank.org/etools/docs/library/34655/agrisupplychainmanag ement.pdf,2002.
[79]Linus U. Opara.Traceability in agriculture and food supply chain:a review of basic concepts, technological implications, and future prospects[J].Food,Agriculture&Environment,2003,Vol.l(1):101-106.
[80]Samarthia Thankappan and Terry Marsden.Private standards driving the Agri-food supply chains:what role do global organisations play?[M].The Centre for Business Relationships,Accountability,Sustainability&Society,2006
[81]David H.Taylor.Demand management in agri-food supply chains:An analysis of the characteristicsand problems and a framework for improvement[J].The International Journal of Logistics Management,2006,17(2):163-186
[82]L.Manning R.N.,Naines S.A.Chadd. Quality assurance models in the food supply chain[J].British Food Journal,2006,108(2):91-104
[83]Jill E.Hobbs and William A. Kerr. Biotechnology and the changing structure of agri-food supply chains[J].International Journal of Biotechnology,2003,5(3):297-310.
[84]Jill E.Hobbs. Innovation and Future Direction of Supply Chain Management in the Canadian Agri-food Industry [J].Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics,2008,46(4):525-537.
[85]孙炜,万筱宁,孙林岩.电子商务环境下中国农产品供应链体系的结构优化[J].工业工程与管理,2004,(5)
[86]王宁,黄立平.基于信息网络的农产品物流供应链管理模式研究[J].农业现代化研究,2005,26(2):126-129,144
[87]易法敏.电子商务平台与农产品供应链的网络集成[J].财贸研究,2006,(6)
[88]朱小平.农业供应链中影响B2B电子商务发展的决定性因素[J].物流科技,2007,(5)
[89]蒋侃.基于价值链分析的农产品电子商务应用研究[J].改革与战略,2005,(4)
[90]谢新港,石礼娟.电子商务在农产品物流中的应用现状及对策探讨[J].农机化研究,2006,(1)
[91]凌宁波,朱风荣.电子商务环境下中国农产品供应链运作模式研究[J].江西农业大学学报(社科版),2006,(3)
[92]李艳霞,赵庆祯.农产品供应链管理信息系统构建方案[J].信息技术与信息化,2005,(4)
[93]孙守钧.种子市场营销学[M],北京:中国农业出版社,2007
[94]张利庠,张喜才.中国现代农业产业链整合研究[J].教学与研究,2007,(10)
[95]佟屏亚.中国种业六十年大事记[M],贵州:贵州科技出版社,2009
[96]邓玉山,莫华英.中国应打造民族种业航空母舰.新华网,2006-8-18(http://www.xinhuanet.com)
[97]刘李峰等.中国种子行业协会的功能发挥与存在的问题[J].中国种业,2007(6)
[98]凤凰网财经数据中心.农业行业深度研究报告:农业发展的本质是产业链.凤凰网,2010-8-6 (http://app.finance.ifeng.com/data/)
[99]本报记者.丰乐种业2010种子农化将双重受益[N].投资者报,2010-1-11
[100]黄建宁,徐刚,吕可.丰乐种业:打造大作物产业链[N].证券日报,2002-12-08
[101]余菁,金春,陈福集.合肥丰乐种业综合计算机管理系统的设计与实现[J].电子与信息化,1999,(8):34-36
[102]本报记者.丰乐种业:投资徽商银行价格急涨[N].金融界,2007-10-09
[103]邵晓峰,张存禄,李美燕.供应链管理[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2008
[104]姜方桃,张敏.供应链管理[M].北京:科学出版社,2009
[105]杨国荣.供应链管理[M].北京:北京理工大学出版社,2007
[106]马士华,林勇.供应链管理[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2003
[107]吴金勇.先锋公司:中国玉米田里的工业倒影[N].经济参考报,2008-11-12
[108]胡军华.孟山都转型:亏本“教育”中国农民[N].财经日报,2010-7-19
[109]王石舟.美国大型农产品企业(ADM、Cargill)供应链探析[J].商场现代化,2006,(3)
[110]闫书颖.国际种子企业并购对中国种子产业发展的启示[J].财经问题研究,2007,(8)
[111]Lambert D.M., Cooper M.C., Pagh J.D., Supply chain management:implementation issues and research opportunities [J]. International Journal of Logistics Management,1998,9(2):1-19
[112]Lambert D.M, Cooper M.C., Issues in supply chain management [J].Industrial Marketing Management,2000,(29):65-83
[113]Chopra S, Lovejoy W, Yano C. Five Decades of Operations Management and the Prospects Ahead[J].Management Science,2004,50(1):8-14
[114]Cooper MC, Lambert DM, Pagh JD. Supply chain management:more than a new name for logistics[J].The international Journal of Logistics Management.1997,8(1):1-13
[115]Oterle H, Blessing D. Business engineeringmodel[C].BusinessEngineering. Berlin:Springer, 2003:65-85
[116]Malone TW. Modeling coordination in organization and markets[J].Management science,1987,33(10):1317-1332
[117]王圣广,马士华.供应链拓扑结构模型研究[J].物流技术,1999,(1):30-33
[118]王丰,李建华,黄培清.供应链管理及其结构与网络的应用[J].上海交通大学学报(社科版),2001,(1):30
[119]张青山,田庆军.企业供应链的结构类型研究[J].商业研究,2002,(5):15-.16
[120]蒋侃.生鲜农产品供应链的分析及其优化[J].沿海企业与科技,2006,(1):57-58
[121]孙华,赵庆祯.农业供应链的结构类型研究[J].中国储运,2005,(9):52-55
[122]冷志杰,唐焕文.大宗农产品供应链四维网络模型及应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,2005,25(3):39-45.
[123]Van Roekel J.,Kopicki R., Broekmans C.J.E., Boselie D.M.,Building agri-supply chains: issues and guideline [EB/OL]http://lnweb18.worldbank.org/ESSD/ardext.nsf/26ByDocName/BuildingAgriSupplyCha inIssuesandGuildelines/$FILE/AgriSupplyChains.pdf,2002
[124]GEORGE STALK J R. Time:The next Source of competitive advantage [J].Harvard Business Review,1988, (7-8):41-45
[125]MERRILS R. How northern telecom compete on time[J].Harvard Business Review,1989 (3-4):108-114
[126]俞安平.基于时间竞争的供应链再造模式与策略研究[J].当代财经,2007(6):58-61
[127]张晟义,艾尼·胡吉.涉农供应链时间竞争的基本障碍分析[J].物流科技,2007(4):87-89
[128]徐良培,李淑华,陶建平.基于时间竞争的我国农产品供应链运营模式研究[J].湖北农业科学,VOL49 NO9.2010, (9):2320-2324
[129]汤兵勇.一类动态大系统的协调控制模型[J].控制与决策,VOL10.NO2.1995:104-108
[130]汤兵勇.模糊模型的辨识及应用[M].北京:中国环境科学出版社,1994
[131]汤兵勇.模糊大系统协调模型的辨识[M].1995中国控制会议论文集:772-778,中国科学技术出版社,1995
[132]汤兵勇.供应链协调运作的大系统多段控制[J].黑龙江大学自然科学学报,VOL22.2005,(5):610-618
[133]Goodwin,G. C. and Payne,R. L. Dynamic System Identification:experiment design and data analysis, New York:Academic Press,1977
[134]Liung, L. and Soderstrom T. Theory and Practice of Recursive Identification, Cambridge, Mass MIT Press,1983
[135]Haber R. and Unbehaven H. Structure Identification of Nonlinear Dynamic Systems-A Survey on Input/Output Approaches,Automatica,Vol.26,No.4,1990:651-677
[136]汤兵勇等.现代模糊数学方法[M].上海:中国纺织大学出版社,1999
[137]汤兵勇等.模糊控制理论与应用技术[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2001
[138]汤兵勇,朱坤平,朱兴龙.离散型模糊控制系统的表示及稳定性分析[J].东华大学学报(自然科学版),VOL129.NO3.2003, (6):20-24
[139]高萍,黄培清,张存禄.基于SCOR模型的供应链绩效评价与衡量指标选取[J].工业工程与管理,2004,(3)
[140]揭辉,黄培清,张存禄.基于SCOR模型的供应链建模[J].工业工程与管理,2004,(2)
[141]Stewart G. Supply chain Operations Reference Model (SCOR):the First Cross-Industry Framework for Integrated Supply-chain Management. Logistics Information Management,1997,10(2)
[142]邵晓峰,季建华,黄培清.供应链竞争力评价指标体系研究[J].预测,2000,(6)
[143]George B. Frisvold, Kathleen Fenucola, Mark Langworthy. Market Returns Infrastructure and the Supply and Dernavrd for Exteruion Services[M].American Agricultural Economics,2011
[144]Germain N.Pichop,Hassan S.Mndiga.,Essentials of Modern Marketing Management&Supply Chain Systems for Vegetable Seed Companies[M]. The World Vegetable Center Publication,2007
[145]蒋恩尧,谷润池,蒋文扬.对营销渠道中间商的绩效评价[J].科技情报开发与经济,2004,(2):75-79
[146]葡国利.分销商选择的模糊多目标规划方法[J].工业工程,2007,(9):102-105
[147]黄毅,柳思维.种业分销渠道绩效评价研究述评[J].中国种业,2009(10):5-7
[148]Turvey C.,Contingent. Claim Pricing Models Implied by Agricultural Stabilization and Insurance Policies [J]. Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economies,1999(6):183-198
[149]William E. Efficient Quantitative Risk Assessment of Jump Processes:Implications for Food Safety [J].American Economic Review, 1998(85):447-451
[150]陈李宏.种业企业风险管理研究[D].武汉理工大学博士论文,2008
[151]Harland C,Brenchley R,Walker H. Risk in supply networks[J].Journal of Purchasing &Supply Management,2003(9):51-62
[152]Ritchie B., C Brindley. Disintermediation, disintegration and risk in the SME global supply chain[J]. Management Decision,2000,38 (8):575
[153]Hendricks K B.Singhal V R. An empirical analysis of the effect of supply chain disruptions on long run stock price performance and equity risk of the firm[J],Production and Operations Management,2005,14(1):35-52
[154]Brindley C.Supply chain risk[M],Burlington,VT,Ashgate,2004
[155]Johnson M E.Learning from toys:lessons in managing supply chain risk from the toy industry[J],California Management Review,2001,Spring
[156]Sunil C,Man Mohan S S. Management risk to avoid supply chain breakdown[J].MIT Sloam Management Review,2004(4):38-45
[157]Deloitte. Supply chain risk management [R]. Netherlands:Deloitte,2004
[158]Tang C S. Perspective in supply chain risk management[J].International Journal of Production Economics.2006,103(2):451-488
[159]Smeltzer L R,Siferd S P. Proactive supply management:the management of risk[J]. International Journal of Purchasing and Materials Management,1998,34(1):38-45
[160]Hallikasa J.Veil-Matti V, Markku T. Risk analysis and assessment in networkenvironments[J]. International Journal of Production Economics,2002,78(1):45-55
[161]Hallikasa J,Iris K, Urho P. Risk management processes in supplier networks [J]. International Journal of Production Economics,2004,90(2):47-58
[162]Balan S,Vrat P,Kumar P.Risk analysis in global supply chain network environments[J]. European Journal of Operational Research,2006,174(3):1353-1367
[163]Goh M,Lim J Y S, Meng F. A stochastic model for risk management in global supply chain networks[J]. European Journal of Operational Research,2007,182(1):164-173
[164]Paulsson U.Supply chain risk management[A].In:Brindley C.Supply Chain Risk[C].Ashgate Publishing Limited,2004
[165]Simons R L.How risky is your company?[J].Harvard Business Review,1999,77(3):85-95 Meulbrook L.Total strategies for company-wide risk control[J].Finanical Time,2000,9
[166]Tang C S.Perspective in supply chain risk management[J].International Journal of Production Economics,2006,103 (2):451-488
[167]韩志刚.非线性系统递推梯度控制律和无模型系统控制[J].黑龙江大学自然科学学报,VOL10.NO4.1993:1-8
[168]刘沂.种业企业风险的整合治理研究—基于COSO报告的风险管理框架[J].农业经济,2008,(4):90-94
[169]田永强,王凤芹.中国粮食企业风险承受能力的模糊综合评价研究[J].农业技术经济,2005,(1):15-19
[170]阎永生.种业企业经营中的风险管理[J].种业导刊,2008,(5):7-9
[171]任守榘.现代制造系统分析与设计[M].北京:科学出版社,1999
[172]顾培亮.系统分析与协调[M].天津:天津大学出版社,1998
[173]Malone T W. Modeling coordination in organization and markets [J].Management science, 1987,33(10):1317-1332.
[174]Simatupang T M,Wright A C, Sridharan R. The knowledge of coordination for supply chain integration[J].Business Process Management,2002,8(3):289-308
[175]尹洪英.供应链合作关系稳定性及稳定机制研究[D].西安:西安理工大学,2006
[176]牟政,穆东.基于马氏链的供应链稳定性评价[J].物流技术,2007,26(11)
[177]汤兵勇.市场经济控制论[M].北京:中国环境科学出版社,1997
[178][法]I.D.郎道著.康景利译.论自适应控制[M].北京:北京理工大学出版社,1992
[179]韩志刚、汤兵勇,参数预报自适应控制方法及其在农业中的应用,控制理论与应用,VOL.2.NO.4.1985:44-52
[180]Tang Bingyong. Self-adaptive Rore cast and Control of the Volume of Purchase to Farm Products and Sideline Products of Developing Countries,IFAC国际控制科学与技术学术会议论文集,1985-8,北京
[181]韩志刚.自适应控制系统设计的参数辨识途径[J].自动化学报,VOL18.NO6.1992:712-715
[182]Lambert D M. Cooper M C Issues in supply chain management [J].Industrial Marketing Management.2000(29):65-83
[183]王素芬,汤兵勇.客户终生价值分析[J],东华大学学报,2002,(2)
[184]汤兵勇.客户关系管理(第二版)[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2008
[185]Van Der Vorst, J Gaj, Beulens A.J.M A research model for the redesign chain [J] International Journal of Logistics:research and Applications,1999,2(2)P161-174
[186]Michael Gibbert,Marius Leiboid,Gilbert Probst. Five styles of customer knowledge management and how smart companies use them to create value. European Management Journal, Vol.20 No.5.2002:459-469
[187]雷轶,汤兵勇.基于拓展的质量屋的客户需求映射研究.2009,(2):65-68
[188]K N Otto, K L Wood. Customer Integrated Systematic Design[J] Journal of Integrated Design and Process Science,1999,3(4):61-74
[189]Andreas Herrmann, Frank Huber, Christine Braunstein. Market-driven Product and Service Design:Bridging the gap Between Customer Needs, Quality Management and Customer Satisfaction[J].International Journal of Production Economics,2000,66:77-96
[190]汤兵勇,雷轶.基于移动服务的客户关系管理体系研究[J].黑龙江大学自然科学学报VOL25.NO6.2008, (12):780-789
[191]ReinartzW,KrafftM,Hoyer W D.The customer relationship management process:Its measurement and impact on performance[J]. Journal ofMarketingResearch,2004,41(3):293-326
[192]Chen I J, PopovichK. Understanding customer relationshipmanagement (CRM):People, process and technology[J]. Business ProcessManage-ment Journa,l 2003,9(5):672-688
[193]GronroosC.The relationshipmarketing process:Communication,interaction,dialogue, value[J]. Journal ofBusiness and IndustrialMarketing,2004,19(2):99-113
[194]Park CH,Kim Y G. A framework ofdynamicCRM:Linkingmarketingwith information strategy[J]. BusinessProcessManagementJourna,l 2003,9(5):652-671
[195]Kim I,Han D,SchultzD E.Understanding the diffusion of integratedmarketing communications[J]. Journal of Advertising Research,2004,44(1):31-45
[196]Heinonen K,Strandvik T.Consumer responsiveness tomobilemarketing[M].Stockholm: Stock holm Mobility Roundtable,2003
[197]Wind Y, MahajanV, GuntherR E.Convergencemarketing:Strategies for reaching the new hybrid consumer[M].New Jersey:PrenticeHal,2002
[198]Gronroos C.Service management and marketing:Acustomer relationship management approach[M].2nd ed. Chichester:JohnWiley and Sons,2000
[199]Bradshaw D, Brash C. Managing customer relationships in the E-businessworld:How to personalise computer relationships for increased profit-ability[J]. International Journal of Retail and DistributionManagement,2001,29(12):520-529
[200]Feinber R A, Kadam R, HokamaL, et al The state of electronic customer relationship management in retailing[J].International Journal of Retail and DistributionManagement,2002, 30(10):470-481
[201]Fjermestad J,RomanoN C. Electronic customer relationship management. Revisiting the general principles of usability and resistance-an integrative implementation framework[J]. Business Process Management Journal 2003,9(5):572-591
[202]Ryals L,Knox S. Cross functional issues in the implementation of relationship marketing through customer relationship management[J]. Europe-an Management Journal 2001,19(5): 534-542
[203]Christopher M, Payne A, Ballantyne D. Relationship marketing:Creating share holder value[M].Oxford:Butterworth,2002
[204]Jain D, Singh S S. Customer lifetime value research inmarketing:A review and future directions[J]. Journal of InteractiveMarketing,2002,16(2):34-46
[205]孙秋霞等.中国农业科技进步贡献率的测算[J].统计与决策,2010,(22)
[206]杨宇等.农业生产资料价格与农产品生产价格之间的关系研究[J].统计与决策,2010,(22)
[207]刘相才.论双向控制模式[J].环境科学丛刊,VOL9.NO4,1988:1-8
[208]汤兵勇,刘相才.区域环境—经济双向控制模型的辨识[J].环境科学,VOL14.NO1.1986:84-89
[209]韩志刚等.商品需求预测模型的辨识及其应用[J].黑龙江大学自然科学学报,VOL6. NO3.1989
[210]韩志刚.结构随机变化系统多层递阶预报[J].自动化学报,VOL16. NO5.1990:423-428
[211]艾略特·艾登伯格(Elliott Ettenberg).文武,穆蕊,蒋洁译.4R营销[M].北京:企业管理出版社,2003
[212]赵静,但琦.数学建模与数学实验[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2000
[213]孟军,尹海东.农业数学实验[M].北京:科学出版社,2005
[214]朱旭,李换琴,籍万新.MATLAB与基础数学实验[M].西安:西安交通大学出版社,2008
[215]韩志刚等.动态系统预报的多模型多方法综合模式[J].系统工程学报,VOL6.NO2.1991: 26-33
[216]Nick T. Thomopoulos. Applied Forecasting Methods,1980 by Prentice-hall, Inc., Englewood Cliffs,N.J.
[217]Qiu Wang, Bingyong Tang. Study on Information Integration Platform of Seed Industry Supply Chain, Proceedings of 2010 Conference of Electric Business, May 29-30,Wuhan City, P.R. China
[218]周宏仁.中国信息化形势分析与预测(2010)[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2010
[219]http://news.aweb.com.cn/2008/10/17/117200810171627690.html梅方权.中国农村信息化战略模式选择,2008-10-17
[220]汤兵勇,陈梅梅.中小企业电子商务之路[M],北京:清华大学出版社,2007
[221]F. K.. Wang,Norma F.,Hubele,Frederiek P. Lawrence.Comparison of three Multivariate Process Capability Indices, Journal of Quality Technology,2000,32(3),263-275
[222]Zachary G. Stoumbos.Process capability indices:overview and extensions, Nonlinear Analysis. Real World Application,2002,3(2):191-210
[223]John M. Quigley. A Simple Hybrid Model for Estimating Real Estate price Indexes,Journal of Housing Economics,1995,(4):1-12
[224]Ekl of Jan A, Westlund, Anders H. Customer Satisfaction Index and Its Role in Quality Management[J].Total Quality Management,1998,9(4):80-86
[225]Hall, Mary-Jo.The American Customer Satisfaction Index,Public Manager,2002,31(1):23-27
[226]Romano N.C.Customer relationship management in information systems research, Proceedings of the America's Conference on Information Systems(AIS2000),Longbeach, California,USA,2001:811-819
[227]Wang Su Fen, Tang Bing-Yong, Chen Jing Xian.An Approach to Modeling the Customer Loyalty,2002 International Workshop on Management Theory and Application under Electric Commence.
[228]Romano N.C.An agenda for electronic commerce customer relationship management research, Proceedings of the America's Conference on Information Systems,2001:831-833
[229]Cachon G P, Fisher M. Supply chain inventory management and the value of shared information[J]. Management Science,2000,45:1032-1048.
[230]Stefansson G. Business to Business Data Sharing:A Source for Integration of Supply Chain[J]. International Journal of Production Economics,2002,75(1):135-146.
[231]钱彦,付钱生,邹晓燕.供应链管理信息化水平的模糊评价方法研究[J].价值工程,2006,(4):48-50
[232]朱焰,单一峰.供应链信息共享度的模糊评价研究[J].山东理工大学学报(自然科学版), 2007,(6):56-59
[233]楚扬杰,王先甲,方德斌等.基于粗集属性重要性的供应链信息共享的模糊综合评价[J].物流科技,VOL29.NO132:67-69
[234]秦立公,刘钰霞,吴娇,董津津.供应链效度评估的AHP模糊优化确定[J].物流科技,2011,(1):67-70
[235]沈荣芳.运筹学高级教程(经济学管理学类研究生教学用书)[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2009
[236]张彪.PRA方法在农田生态系统杂草综合评价中的应用[J].江苏农业科学,2001,(4)
[237]马兵林等.基于PRA的风沙过渡区退耕还林草效果评价与农户响应——以甘肃省景泰县新墩湾村为例[J].现代农业,2008,(7)
[238]刘轩等.PRA方法在林木生物质能源项目中的应用[J].林业经济,2009(3)