水利工程规划方案多属性决策评价体系构建及评价方法研究
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摘要
水利工程是涉及多方面的系统工程,它在方案选定过程存在大量的决策、评价问题,而且针对不同类型的工程,其影响因素和评价标准等也存在差异。因此,研究水利工程规划方案多属性决策问题,不仅有利于决策者对水利工程的方案选定提供客观依据,也对工程建设区乃至整个社会的发展起到积极的作用。本文以多属性决策理论为基础,结合水利工程的独有特点,对水利工程规划方案多属性决策进行了系统研究,首先建立了水利工程综合评价指标体系,对定性指标的量化问题进行了探讨;其次,分别运用基于三角模糊数的灰色关联方法及基于区间直觉模糊数的理想解法构建了决策模型;最后,将模型应用于王快—西大洋水库综合管理工程的实践中,证实了模型的可靠性和实用性。主要研究结果如下:
本论文在第3章综合水利工程规划方案决策应考虑的四项基本影响,即社会影响、环境影响、生态影响、经济影响。以王快—西大洋水库综合管理工程为评价对象,针对工程特点,考虑综合评价系统的层次结构性,建立了用于方案优选的多层次指标体系。
第4章将三角模糊数及灰色关联度的方法进行结合,建立决策模型。对于定性指标,采用三角模糊数进行量化,既能体现专家、技术人员等的意见又能反映其模糊性。确定权重是多属性决策问题的关键环节之一,本文运用熵—关联度相结合的方法,熵权法是计算同一指标对各评价方案的作用,是纵向的比较,而关联度法是计算同一方案中各不同指标之间的差异,是横向的比较,两种方法互相补充,并且两种方法都是客观计算权重的方法,更大程度上挖掘数据信息,减小了人为干扰。最终将三角模糊数运用加权的灰色关联度法进行处理,计算各方案与理想方案的关联程度,确定出最优方案。
第5章基于区间直觉模糊集理论建立决策模型,运用直觉模糊熵可以表示区间直觉模糊数的模糊程度,计算各指标权重。方案的综合决策采用基于区间直觉模糊数的理想解法建立决策模型,可以综合考虑隶属度、非隶属度、犹豫度三方面的信息,在处理模糊信息方面具有更强的能力,适合水利工程方案决策。
第6章将两种决策模型应用于王快—西大洋水库综合管理工程实践中,对其备选的四条线路进行优选,两种方法所得结果均认为第二条线路为最优,与实际工程相符,验证了理论方法的可行性和合理性。
Water conservancy project is related to many system engineering,The scheme selected process there are a lot of decision, evaluation problem.According to the different types of engineering, its influencing factors and the evaluation standards also exist difference. Therefore, water conservancy project planning scheme for multiple attribute decision making problems system research, not only helps decision makers to water conservancy project selected to provide the objective basis, also on the construction area and the development of the whole society to play an active role. This text based on the multi attribute decision making theory as the basis, combined with the unique characteristics of hydraulic engineering, water conservancy project planning multiple attribute decision-making undertook the system studies. First of all, to establish a comprehensive evaluation index system of water conservancy project, discusses the problem of quantifying the qualitative indexes; Secondly, based on triangle fuzzy Numbers, using respectively the grey correlation method based on interval and the number of intuitionistic fuzzy ideal solution constructs decision-making model; Finally, the model is applied to the Wangkuai-Xidayang reservoir comprehensive management engineering practice, confirmed that the model's reliability and practicability. The main research results are as follows:
This paper proposed in the third chapter of water conservancy project planning decision should be integrated into the four basic effects, social effects, environmental effects, ecological effect, economic effect. To the Wangkuai-Xidayang reservoir comprehensive management engineering practice as the evaluation object, According to the engineering characteristics, considering the comprehensive evaluation system of hierarchical structure, built for the scheme optimization of multi level index system.
Chapter 4 combined with triangular fuzzy number and the method of grey correlation degree, establish decision-making model. For qualitative index, useing triangular fuzzy number for the quantification ,which reflects the experts, technical staff and observations of others and can reflect the fuzziness. To determine the weight of multiple attribute decision making problem is one of the key links, this paper uses the method of combining entropy with correlation, The entropy method is calculating the effect of the same indicators on the evaluation solution, is the comparison of the vertical While the correlation method is calculating the difference between the different indicators in the same scheme,is the comparison of the horizontal, two methods are complementary to each other, two methods are objective weight calculation, a greater degree of data mining information, reducing human interference. Eventually weighted the triangular fuzzy numbers by using grey correlation degree method, Calculate the correlation degree between each scheme and ideal scheme, determine the optimal scheme.
Chapter 5 based on interval-valued intuition fuzzy set theory establish decision model , Application of intuitionistic fuzzy entropy can be expressed the fuzzy degree of interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy number, to calculate the weight of each index. Comprehensive decision making based on the method of interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy ideal solution to establish decision model, may consider the degree of membership, non membership, hesitancy degree three aspects of information, in the processing of fuzzy information with a stronger ability, suitable for water conservancy engineering scheme decision.
Chapter 6 two decision model is applied to the Wangkuai-Xidayang reservoir comprehensive management engineering practice, Optimal selection of engineering practice in the choice of four lines, The results obtained with the two methods agree that second lines for optimal, With the actual engineering in accord with theoretical method proved the feasibility and rationality.
本论文在第3章综合水利工程规划方案决策应考虑的四项基本影响,即社会影响、环境影响、生态影响、经济影响。以王快—西大洋水库综合管理工程为评价对象,针对工程特点,考虑综合评价系统的层次结构性,建立了用于方案优选的多层次指标体系。
第4章将三角模糊数及灰色关联度的方法进行结合,建立决策模型。对于定性指标,采用三角模糊数进行量化,既能体现专家、技术人员等的意见又能反映其模糊性。确定权重是多属性决策问题的关键环节之一,本文运用熵—关联度相结合的方法,熵权法是计算同一指标对各评价方案的作用,是纵向的比较,而关联度法是计算同一方案中各不同指标之间的差异,是横向的比较,两种方法互相补充,并且两种方法都是客观计算权重的方法,更大程度上挖掘数据信息,减小了人为干扰。最终将三角模糊数运用加权的灰色关联度法进行处理,计算各方案与理想方案的关联程度,确定出最优方案。
第5章基于区间直觉模糊集理论建立决策模型,运用直觉模糊熵可以表示区间直觉模糊数的模糊程度,计算各指标权重。方案的综合决策采用基于区间直觉模糊数的理想解法建立决策模型,可以综合考虑隶属度、非隶属度、犹豫度三方面的信息,在处理模糊信息方面具有更强的能力,适合水利工程方案决策。
第6章将两种决策模型应用于王快—西大洋水库综合管理工程实践中,对其备选的四条线路进行优选,两种方法所得结果均认为第二条线路为最优,与实际工程相符,验证了理论方法的可行性和合理性。
Water conservancy project is related to many system engineering,The scheme selected process there are a lot of decision, evaluation problem.According to the different types of engineering, its influencing factors and the evaluation standards also exist difference. Therefore, water conservancy project planning scheme for multiple attribute decision making problems system research, not only helps decision makers to water conservancy project selected to provide the objective basis, also on the construction area and the development of the whole society to play an active role. This text based on the multi attribute decision making theory as the basis, combined with the unique characteristics of hydraulic engineering, water conservancy project planning multiple attribute decision-making undertook the system studies. First of all, to establish a comprehensive evaluation index system of water conservancy project, discusses the problem of quantifying the qualitative indexes; Secondly, based on triangle fuzzy Numbers, using respectively the grey correlation method based on interval and the number of intuitionistic fuzzy ideal solution constructs decision-making model; Finally, the model is applied to the Wangkuai-Xidayang reservoir comprehensive management engineering practice, confirmed that the model's reliability and practicability. The main research results are as follows:
This paper proposed in the third chapter of water conservancy project planning decision should be integrated into the four basic effects, social effects, environmental effects, ecological effect, economic effect. To the Wangkuai-Xidayang reservoir comprehensive management engineering practice as the evaluation object, According to the engineering characteristics, considering the comprehensive evaluation system of hierarchical structure, built for the scheme optimization of multi level index system.
Chapter 4 combined with triangular fuzzy number and the method of grey correlation degree, establish decision-making model. For qualitative index, useing triangular fuzzy number for the quantification ,which reflects the experts, technical staff and observations of others and can reflect the fuzziness. To determine the weight of multiple attribute decision making problem is one of the key links, this paper uses the method of combining entropy with correlation, The entropy method is calculating the effect of the same indicators on the evaluation solution, is the comparison of the vertical While the correlation method is calculating the difference between the different indicators in the same scheme,is the comparison of the horizontal, two methods are complementary to each other, two methods are objective weight calculation, a greater degree of data mining information, reducing human interference. Eventually weighted the triangular fuzzy numbers by using grey correlation degree method, Calculate the correlation degree between each scheme and ideal scheme, determine the optimal scheme.
Chapter 5 based on interval-valued intuition fuzzy set theory establish decision model , Application of intuitionistic fuzzy entropy can be expressed the fuzzy degree of interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy number, to calculate the weight of each index. Comprehensive decision making based on the method of interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy ideal solution to establish decision model, may consider the degree of membership, non membership, hesitancy degree three aspects of information, in the processing of fuzzy information with a stronger ability, suitable for water conservancy engineering scheme decision.
Chapter 6 two decision model is applied to the Wangkuai-Xidayang reservoir comprehensive management engineering practice, Optimal selection of engineering practice in the choice of four lines, The results obtained with the two methods agree that second lines for optimal, With the actual engineering in accord with theoretical method proved the feasibility and rationality.
引文
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[3]方子云,邹家祥.中国水电工程环境与生态问题的研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,1998,7(01):57-62.
[4]李孝坤.重庆三峡水库生态经济区农业生态环境问题与重建研究[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2005,16(2):97-101.
[5]夏永侠.三峡农村外迁移民生活满意度研究[D].山东:山东大学,2009.
[6]杨斌.都江堰水利可持续发展与成都平原经济社会发展的关系研究[D].四川:成都理工学,2009.
[7]唐万林,禹雪中.国外水电环境认证制度对我国的借鉴意义[J].长江流域资源与环境,2007,1(1):123-127.
[8] Van Gennip C E G , Hulshof J A M, Lootsma F A. A mufti-criteria evaluation of diseases in a study for public-health planning[J], European Journal of Operational Research,1997,99:236-240.
[9] Shipley M F, et al. A fuzzy logic-based decision model to satisfy goals for successful product/service introduction[J], European Journal of Operational Research,2001,135:209-219.
[10]宋业新,陈绵云,张曙红.基于模糊指派的多目标多工程选址决策[J],系统工程理论与实践,2002,22(1):108-111.
[11]张强,刘克,高自友.属性综合评价系统在城市交通规划中的应用[J],系统工程理论与实践,2002 22(6):113-120.
[12] CrhzL opez-de-los-MozosM,MesaJ A .The maximum absoluted eviation measure in location problems on networks[J],European Journal of Operational Research, 2001,135:184-194.
[13]齐怡等.故障诊断专家系统中诊断决策方法的研究[J],航空学报,2002,24(2):147-151.
[14] Xu Zeshui,Da Qingli. Linguistic approaches to multiple attribute decision making in uncertain linguistic setting [J],Journal of Southeast University, 2004,20(4):482-485.
[15]徐泽水.拓展的C-OWA算子及其在不确定多属性决策中的应用[J]系统工程理论与实践,2005, 25 ( 11 ):7-13.
[16]徐泽水.不确定多属性决策方法及其应用〔M].北京:清华大学出版社,2004.
[17] X. W. Liu. On the methods of decision making under uncertainty with probability information International Journal of Intelligent Systems, 2004,19: 1217-1238
[18]曾三云,龙君.基于信息嫡的模糊多属性决策方法[J].广西科学,208, 15 ( 2 ): 135一137.
[19]夏勇其,吴祈宗.一种混合型多属性决策问题的TOPSIS方法[J].系统工程学报2004,1(6):630-634.
[20] S.M. Chen, J. M. Handling multicriteria fuzzy desition-making problems based on vague set theory. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 1994.67: 163一172.
[21] D.H.Hong, C.H.Choi, Multi-criteria fuzzy decision-making problems based on vague set theory,Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 2000.114: 103一113
[22]李凡,卢安,蔡立晶.基于Vague集的多目标模糊决策方法,华中科技大学学报(自然科学版),2001.29(7):1-3.
[23]王坚强.几类信息不完全确定的多准则决策方法研究:[D].湖南:中南大学管理科学与工系.2005
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