基于地面检测的天然气埋地钢管的风险评估
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摘要
随着我国现代化进程的不断加快,人民生活水平的不断提高,管道燃气作为主要消耗能源在人们生活中的比重越来越大,已成为城市基础设施之一。由于燃气管道长期埋在地下,随着时间的推移,在施工、土壤腐蚀、地形沉降等因素影响下,会发生腐蚀、穿孔、泄漏,这都将给燃气公司和人民群众带来严重的损失。因此,开展城市埋地燃气管道的风险评估,保障其安全运行具有十分重要的意义。
本文主要是针对重庆市运行中的中压埋地燃气管道进行风险分析和评估。文章的主要内容是:在查阅了大量资料的基础上,详细介绍了风险评估的概念和方法,管道内外检测技术和方法以及灰评估理论。管道数据是进行风险评估的关键,因此,在对管道进行风险评估前,运用管道内外检测技术对埋地燃气管道进行了定位、定深、防腐层绝缘性能、防腐层缺陷检测。根据现场调研的基础和已有的相关燃气管道资料,确定管道失效可能性和失效后果的主要影响因素,既第三方破坏因素、腐蚀因素、设计因素和不当操作因素。收集数据之后,运用灰理论对管道的防腐态势进行灰评估,并与常规分类评估结果做比较,找出相容性和特性。最后运用改进后的穆式评估法对埋地天然气管道进行风险评估和分析,并依据各管段实际情况给出维护建议。
本文在防腐态势评估中运用了灰色评估理论,应用结果表明灰评估方法能够从“少信息”中提取有用信息解决多指标、多目标的综合评估问题,这将为灰色理论运用到更多的评估问题中起到抛砖引玉的作用。同时,本文也对重庆市部分燃气管道进行了风险评估和分析,并提出了修改意见,为重庆天然气埋地管道的检测和维护提供一定的帮助。
With the accelerating pace of modernization of our country and the improvement of people’s living standards, the pipeline gas is regarded specific proportion that chiefly consumes the sources of energy in the life. It has become an important part of city infrastructure. Owing to buried in the underground, along with elapsing of time, is constructing, soil corruptions and topography are subsided etc the influence is down, and the pipeline can occur corrodes, perforation and let out. It can provide some losses for people and gas corporations. So it is quite significant to perform the risk evaluation and ensure safe operation of the municipal buried gas pipeline.
In this dissertation, the risk analysis of middle pipeline which is used in municipal is performed in Chongqing city. On the comprehensive investigation, the research introduced in detail the concept and methods of risk assessment, pipeline internal and external detection technology and methods, as well as grey evaluation theory. Pipeline’s data and information is the base and key to risk assessment. Before the assessment of the pipeline, use the pipeline internal and external detection technology to detect the buried gas pipeline, including location, depth locating, anti-corrosion layer of insulation and anticorrosion coating defects. According to the comprehensive investigation and a lot of documents, it is defined the main factors of the failure likelihood and consequence. There are third-party damage factors, corrosion factors, design factors and inappropriate operational factors. After the collection of data,use the grey evaluation theory to evaluate the anti-corrosion situation of the pipeline, and compare with the result of General Classification Assessment. Depend on the results of the comparison, we can find the compatibility and features. At last, using the improved method of Mu-style assessment to assess and analyse the buried gas pipeline, and depend on the actual situation to give the maintenance suggestions.
In this paper, theoretical foundation of anti-corrosion situation assessment is grayassessment theory. The result of the applications shows that the gray assessment can extract useful information to solve the problem of comprehensive assessment which are Multi-index or multi-objective from“less information”. This will play a lead role in using gray theory to evaluate more problems. At the same time, in this paper, part of the gas pipeline of Chongqing were evaluated and analysed, and the advices of rectification were given. This will give some help to test and maintenance for Chongqing gas pipeline.
本文主要是针对重庆市运行中的中压埋地燃气管道进行风险分析和评估。文章的主要内容是:在查阅了大量资料的基础上,详细介绍了风险评估的概念和方法,管道内外检测技术和方法以及灰评估理论。管道数据是进行风险评估的关键,因此,在对管道进行风险评估前,运用管道内外检测技术对埋地燃气管道进行了定位、定深、防腐层绝缘性能、防腐层缺陷检测。根据现场调研的基础和已有的相关燃气管道资料,确定管道失效可能性和失效后果的主要影响因素,既第三方破坏因素、腐蚀因素、设计因素和不当操作因素。收集数据之后,运用灰理论对管道的防腐态势进行灰评估,并与常规分类评估结果做比较,找出相容性和特性。最后运用改进后的穆式评估法对埋地天然气管道进行风险评估和分析,并依据各管段实际情况给出维护建议。
本文在防腐态势评估中运用了灰色评估理论,应用结果表明灰评估方法能够从“少信息”中提取有用信息解决多指标、多目标的综合评估问题,这将为灰色理论运用到更多的评估问题中起到抛砖引玉的作用。同时,本文也对重庆市部分燃气管道进行了风险评估和分析,并提出了修改意见,为重庆天然气埋地管道的检测和维护提供一定的帮助。
With the accelerating pace of modernization of our country and the improvement of people’s living standards, the pipeline gas is regarded specific proportion that chiefly consumes the sources of energy in the life. It has become an important part of city infrastructure. Owing to buried in the underground, along with elapsing of time, is constructing, soil corruptions and topography are subsided etc the influence is down, and the pipeline can occur corrodes, perforation and let out. It can provide some losses for people and gas corporations. So it is quite significant to perform the risk evaluation and ensure safe operation of the municipal buried gas pipeline.
In this dissertation, the risk analysis of middle pipeline which is used in municipal is performed in Chongqing city. On the comprehensive investigation, the research introduced in detail the concept and methods of risk assessment, pipeline internal and external detection technology and methods, as well as grey evaluation theory. Pipeline’s data and information is the base and key to risk assessment. Before the assessment of the pipeline, use the pipeline internal and external detection technology to detect the buried gas pipeline, including location, depth locating, anti-corrosion layer of insulation and anticorrosion coating defects. According to the comprehensive investigation and a lot of documents, it is defined the main factors of the failure likelihood and consequence. There are third-party damage factors, corrosion factors, design factors and inappropriate operational factors. After the collection of data,use the grey evaluation theory to evaluate the anti-corrosion situation of the pipeline, and compare with the result of General Classification Assessment. Depend on the results of the comparison, we can find the compatibility and features. At last, using the improved method of Mu-style assessment to assess and analyse the buried gas pipeline, and depend on the actual situation to give the maintenance suggestions.
In this paper, theoretical foundation of anti-corrosion situation assessment is grayassessment theory. The result of the applications shows that the gray assessment can extract useful information to solve the problem of comprehensive assessment which are Multi-index or multi-objective from“less information”. This will play a lead role in using gray theory to evaluate more problems. At the same time, in this paper, part of the gas pipeline of Chongqing were evaluated and analysed, and the advices of rectification were given. This will give some help to test and maintenance for Chongqing gas pipeline.
引文
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[3] European Gas Pipeline Incident Data Group. Gas Pipeline Incidents: 1970-1992[J]. Pipe&Pipelines International, 1995, 40(4).
[4]姚安林.论我国管道风险评价技术的发展战略[J].天然气工业, 1999, 19(4): 66~99.
[5] MuhlbauerW K(著),杨嘉瑜(译). .管道风险管理手册[M].北京:化学工业出版社, 2004.
[6] ASME B31G. Manual for determining the remaining strength of corroded pipelines. ASME B31G-1991[J], New York, 1991.
[7] Ahammed M. Prediction of remaining strength of corroded pressurized pipelines[J]. Int J Pres Ves Piping 1997, 71: 213.
[8] American Petroleum Institute. Risk based resource document[J]. API PR581, 2000.
[9]杨筱蘅,严大凡.逐步实施我国油气管道的完整性管理[J].天然气工业, 2004, 24(11): 120~123.
[10]闫凤霞,高惠临.风险评估及其在油气管道评估方面的应用[J].石油工业技术监督, 2003, 19(2): 1~6.
[11]潘家华.油气管道的风险分析[J].油气储运, 1995, 14(3): 11~15.
[12]赵金洲,喻西崇,李长俊.缺陷管道适用性评价技术[M].北京:中国石化出版社, 2005.
[13]戴树和.风险分析技术(一)——风险分析的原理和方法[J].压力容器, 2002, 19(20): 1～9.
[14]雷威,余建星.熟油管线腐蚀风险分析方法研究[J].引进与咨询, 2000, (04): 23～25.
[15]戴树和.风险分析技术(二)——典型装置上的工程应用[J].压力容器, 2002, (03): 2～6.
[16]张艳丽.可拓学在压力容器风险评价应用中的探讨[D].南京:南京工业大学, 2000.
[17] W.Kent Muhlbauer.Pipeline Risk Management Manual[M]. Gulf Publishing Company, 1992.
[18]四川石油管理局(译).管道风险管理[M].北京:石油工业出版社, 1995.
[19] David Jones et al.Risk Assessment Approach to Pipeline Life Management[J]. Pipes&Pipelines International. 1998, 1～2.
[20]何吉民,李艳红,李志鹏,等.埋地燃气管道的风险评估技术[J].煤气与热力, 2005, 25(11): 10~13.
[21] Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers. Risk assessment techniques for pipeline systems[M].CEC.J2793, May 1993.
[22]郭红芳,曾向阳.风险分析法[J].计算机工程, 2001, (3): 131~132.
[23]顾基发,赵丽艳.航天系统安全性分析的概率风险评估方法[J].系统工程与电子技术, 1999,(8): 27~30.
[24]秦炳军,张圣坤.动态过程风险评估方法[J].上海交通大学学报, 1998, (11): 17~21.
[25]宋晓燕,谢中朋,漆旺生.基于层次分析法的企业安全文化评价指标体系研究[J].中国安全科学学报, 2008: 144~148.
[26]李惠萍,俞燕.基于模糊综合评价的企业财务危机预警模型构建探讨[J].商场现代化, 2008, 9: 370~371.
[27]汪培庄,李洪兴.模糊系统理论与模糊计算机[M].北京:科学出版社, 1996: 187~195.
[28]王耀南.机器人智能控制工程[M].北京:科学出版社, 2004.
[29] GimelfarbM. Materials Performance[J]. Pipe&Pipelines International 1990,29(2)18-20.
[30] Melvin Romanoff. Underground Corrosion. National Technical Information Service(NTIS)[J]. U.S Department of Commerce.April,l957
[31] Kasahara K. and Kajiyama F. 9th International Congression on Metallic Corrosion(9th ICMC)[J],Toronto Canada, June3-7, 1984: Vol.1:455
[32] U.R.艾万思著,华保定译.金属的腐蚀与氧化[M].北京,机械工业出版社, 1976, 216.
[33]伍冠玲.灰色综合评价法在建筑工程评标中的应用[J].工程质量, 2008.No.1(A): 48~50.
[34]徐维祥,张全寿.一种基于灰色理论和模糊数学的综合集成算法[J].系统工程理论与实践, 2001(4).
[35]张辉,高德利.基于模糊数学和灰色理论的多层次综合评价方法及应用[J].数学的实践与认识, 2008(2).
[36]于志鹏,陆愈实.模糊灰色关联法在分析安全投资因素与效益关系中的应用[J].中国安全科学学, 2007(3).
[37]卜广志,张宇文.基于灰色模糊关系的灰色模糊综合评判[J].系统工程理论与实践, 2002(4).
[38]朱绍强,孟科,张临喜.区间数灰色模糊综合评判及其应用[J].电光与控制, 2006(6).
[39]查新月,豁祖顺.基于灰色关联分析的模糊评判模型与系统分析[J].数学理论与应用, 2005(9).
[40]汪应洛.系统工程[M]. 2版.北京:机械工业出版社, 1999: 192~200.
[41]陶大俊,奚振斐,宋国乡.运用层次分析法评价电子银行的主要风险[J].现代电子技术, 2008: 72~75.
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