城市路内停车影响的建模与特性分析
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摘要
设置路内停车设施是缓解城市停车供需紧张局面的有效手段,并具有设置灵活、使用方便等优点。但另一方面路内停车设施占用道路资源,影响行车效率,并容易引发交通事故,特别是不合理的路内停车已成为导致交通拥堵的重要原因之一。为此,深入了解路内停车对动态交通产生的影响,掌握其产生影响的本质和根源,为制定路内停车规划方案和管理策略提供理论依据是城市交通规划和管理研究亟需解决的问题。当前,我国快速增长的停车需求决定了在今后较长的一段时间内路内停车将是城市停车供给的重要角色,针对路内停车的相关研究亟待完善,路内停车规划和管理方法还缺乏科学合理的理论依据作为指导。加之我国城市交通中机非混行现象严重,而路内停车设施一般多设置在非机动车道上,路内停车的影响会在机非混行环境中出现新的变化,这也增加了路内停车影响研究的复杂性。
基于以上问题,本文主要从两个方面研究路内停车对动态交通的影响。首先,针对我国城市机非混合交通的特点,采用运动轨迹分析的方法研究路内停车对机动车和非机动车的横向驾驶行为产生的影响；并构建基于路内停车影响的非机动车越线违章行为分析模型。其次,通过理论建模和仿真模拟的方法研究路内停车对交通运行效率的影响。建立行程时间持续期模型分析路内停车对机动车行程时间和延误的影响；采用冲突技术建立路内停车影响下的道路通行能力分析模型；建立考虑路内停车影响的交通仿真模型,并通过数值模拟研究路内停车对交通效率造成的影响。论文的主要工作如下：
(1)针对路内停车占用道路空问并影响驾驶行为特性的问题,采用运动轨迹分析的方法研究路内停车导致机动车和非机动车横向行驶位置发生偏移的规律。通过实测数据分析可以得知,路内停车对机动车和非机动车的横向行驶位置分布会产生显著影响；机动车行驶位置偏移车道中线的距离与路内停车至车道边线的距离呈反比关系。另外,还建立了用于分析路内停车影响下的非机动车越线占用机动车道行驶行为的模型,研究路内停车对无隔离路段非机动车越线行为产生影响的显著性。
(2)基于Cox持续期模型,建立考虑路内停车影响的机动车行程时间持续期模型。模型用持续概率描述行程时间分布,将有效行车道宽度、行车冲突、车位利用率、周转率、非机动车流量等因素设为协变量用以体现路内停车的影响,并采用相对风险率对路内停车造成行车延误的可能性进行定量分析。结果表明,模型能够较好地描述受路内停车影响的行程时间分布特征,模型采用的协变量对行程时间和延误具有显著影响。其中有效行车道宽度对行程时间呈正效应影响,有效行车道宽度的增加将缩短行程时间；而行车冲突、车位利用率、周转率等因素呈负效应影响。
(3)以冲突理论和车头时距分析作为基本模型框架,采用基本模型结合变量修正的思路构建城市双向双车道道路通行能力模型。模型用冲突理论描述路内停车行为与行驶车辆间的相互作用,同时考虑到机非混合交通的实际情况,将交通冲突划分为直行车辆和停驶车辆冲突、直行车辆和非机动车冲突、直行车辆和停驶车辆及非机动车同时冲突三种情况来建立通行能力模型。在此基础上,将有效行车道宽度、车位周转率和非机动车道宽度作为修正变量对基本模型进行修正研究结果表明,构建的模型能够较好的描述路内停车对通行能力的影响,引入非机动车的影响更符合机非混行环境中路内停车交通影响的机理。
(4)在路内停车行为特性分析的基础上,建立考虑路内停车影响的交通流仿真模型,研究路内停车对交通流运行状况的影响。以NaSch模型为基础,建立路内停车影响下的机动车交通流元胞自动机模型,按照直行车辆、驶入停车位车辆和驶出停车位车辆三个类型分别设定仿真模拟规则,并分三个场景进行数值模拟。结果表明,路内停车对交通流运行状态具有显著影响,会导致道路通行能力下降,速度降低；路内停车发生频率、停车机动持续时间都是显著影响因素。
(5)在对路内停车的交通影响进行建模分析和仿真模拟的基础上,探讨了路内停车规划设计方法和改进措施。提出由空间位置选址到服务时间分配,最后进行停车位设计的路内停车规划设计方法。并根据非机动车道和机非混行车道中路内停车对非机动车交通产生影响的特点,对车位标线和警示标志进行改进设计,以期减少路内停车对非机动车的影响并改善非机动车交通环境。此外,还针对当前路内停车问题提出相应的改善措施。
On-street parking is not only an effective means of providing more parking space and balancing the parking demand and supply, but also flexible in design and installation and convenient to access. On the other hand, due to its occupancy of roadway resources, on-street parking can significantly impact traffic performance and safety. Unreasonable on-street parking, in particular, has become a significant cause of traffic congestion. Therefore, it is important for the field of urban transport planning and management to understand the influence of on-street parking on traffic performance, analyze the essence and foundation of on-street impact and provide theoretical basis for on-street parking planning and management. Nowadays, the rapid growth in parking demand in China makes on-street parking a crucial role in urban parking supply in the near future. However, there are still some problems about on-street parking that have not been solved, and the planning and management of on-street parking need more theoretical bases. Moreover, the mixed traffic consisting of motorized vehicles and non-motorized vehicles and the relation between on-street parking and non-motorized traffic can increase the complicacy of the influence of on-street parking.
Based on the problems mentioned above, the influence of on-street parking is investigated from two aspects in this dissertation. Firstly, trajectory analysis is applied to investigate the influence of on-street parking on lateral driving behaviour of motorized vehicle drivers and non-motorized vehicle drivers under the mixed traffic circumstance. In this way, the modification of driving behaviour and driving space demand are discussed. Also, the lane-crossing behaviour of non-motorized vehicle is modeled based on the influence of on-street parking. Secondly, the influence of on-street parking on traffic performance is investigated by using theoretical models and simulations. The travel time and delay under the influence of on-street parking are studied via the travel time duration model, the capacity of two-lane street is modeled based on the conflict technique, and some simulating models are established to evaluate the traffic performance under the influence of on-street parking. The contents of this dissertation are as follows:
(1) The regular pattern that the on-street parking can impact the lateral positions of moving trajectory of vehicles is investigated by using trajectory capture and analysis. According to the empirical data and analysis results, it can be concluded that on-street parking can impact the distribution of lateral positions of vehicles significantly, and that offset distance of motorized vehicles is in direct proportion to the occupancy width of on-street parking. Furthermore, in order to analyze the lane-crossing behaviour of non-motorized vehicles under the influence of on-street parking in the non-motorized vehicle lane, the lifetime analysis method is adopted to model such behaviour involved with non-motorized vehicle volume. The results indicate the significance of the influence of on-street parking on the lane-crossing behaviour.
(2) Considering the influence of on-street parking, a hazard-based duration model is proposed to analyze the influence of on-street parking on travel time and delay based on the Cox duration model. The distribution of travel time is described by continuance probability. Some influential factors that are related to on-street parking, such as the effective lane width, the travel conflicts, the occupancy and the turnover, are adopted as covariates. Moreover, the relative hazard ratio is used to give a quantitative analysis of the delay that is caused by on-street parking. The results show that the model can fit the data well and that the covariates in the model have significant influence on travel time. Among the selected covariates, the effective lane width has a positive effect on travel time in a way that the increase in the lane width can shorten the travel time, while other covariates, such as the travel conflicts, the occupancy and the turnover have a negative effect. The quantitative results in this study can provide basis for decision making in the planning and management of on-street parking.
(3) A capacity model for a two-way two-lane urban street is proposed based on the framework of conflict technique and time-headway analysis by combining basic model with parameter modification. The conflict technique is adopted to describe the interaction between the parking manoeuvres and moving vehicles. In view of the mixed traffic circumstance, the conflicts are classified into three types:conflicts between moving vehicles and parking vehicles, conflicts between moving vehicle and non-motorized vehicles and conflicts among moving vehicle, parking vehicles and non-motorized vehicles. According to the fundamentals of these three conflicts, the basic capacity model is proposed. Then, three parameters, i.e. effective lane width, turnover and lane width of non-motorized vehicle lane, are used to modify the basic model. The results indicate that the new model can reflect the influence of on-street parking on capacity, and taking the non-motorized vehicles into consideration is in accordance with the mechanism of vehicle interactions in mixed traffic circumstance.
(4) Traffic simulating is performed to investigate the influence of on-street parking on traffic flow based on the analysis of characteristics of on-street parking. A cellular automaton model is proposed to depict the motorized vehicle flow under the influence of on-street parking. The vehicles in the system are classified into three types:through vehicles, parking vehicles and unparking vehicles. Each type of vehicles is assigned with specific moving rules, and all the vehicles update their velocities and positions according to the NaSch cellular automaton model. The numerical simulation results show that on-street parking has a significant impact on traffic state and can decrease the volume and velocity of the motorized vehicle flow. The frequency of parking manoeuvre and the duration of parking manoeuvre are crucial influential factors.
(5) The methods and improvement measures for planning and designing on-street parking facilities are discussed based on the modelling and simulating of the influence of on-street parking. A three-step method is proposed, namely spatial location selection, service time distribution and parking stall designing. Suggestions in parking stall designing and marking are made to improve the traffic conditions for non-motorized vehicles. Additionally, some correction measures are proposed to decrease the influence of on-street parking.
基于以上问题,本文主要从两个方面研究路内停车对动态交通的影响。首先,针对我国城市机非混合交通的特点,采用运动轨迹分析的方法研究路内停车对机动车和非机动车的横向驾驶行为产生的影响；并构建基于路内停车影响的非机动车越线违章行为分析模型。其次,通过理论建模和仿真模拟的方法研究路内停车对交通运行效率的影响。建立行程时间持续期模型分析路内停车对机动车行程时间和延误的影响；采用冲突技术建立路内停车影响下的道路通行能力分析模型；建立考虑路内停车影响的交通仿真模型,并通过数值模拟研究路内停车对交通效率造成的影响。论文的主要工作如下：
(1)针对路内停车占用道路空问并影响驾驶行为特性的问题,采用运动轨迹分析的方法研究路内停车导致机动车和非机动车横向行驶位置发生偏移的规律。通过实测数据分析可以得知,路内停车对机动车和非机动车的横向行驶位置分布会产生显著影响；机动车行驶位置偏移车道中线的距离与路内停车至车道边线的距离呈反比关系。另外,还建立了用于分析路内停车影响下的非机动车越线占用机动车道行驶行为的模型,研究路内停车对无隔离路段非机动车越线行为产生影响的显著性。
(2)基于Cox持续期模型,建立考虑路内停车影响的机动车行程时间持续期模型。模型用持续概率描述行程时间分布,将有效行车道宽度、行车冲突、车位利用率、周转率、非机动车流量等因素设为协变量用以体现路内停车的影响,并采用相对风险率对路内停车造成行车延误的可能性进行定量分析。结果表明,模型能够较好地描述受路内停车影响的行程时间分布特征,模型采用的协变量对行程时间和延误具有显著影响。其中有效行车道宽度对行程时间呈正效应影响,有效行车道宽度的增加将缩短行程时间；而行车冲突、车位利用率、周转率等因素呈负效应影响。
(3)以冲突理论和车头时距分析作为基本模型框架,采用基本模型结合变量修正的思路构建城市双向双车道道路通行能力模型。模型用冲突理论描述路内停车行为与行驶车辆间的相互作用,同时考虑到机非混合交通的实际情况,将交通冲突划分为直行车辆和停驶车辆冲突、直行车辆和非机动车冲突、直行车辆和停驶车辆及非机动车同时冲突三种情况来建立通行能力模型。在此基础上,将有效行车道宽度、车位周转率和非机动车道宽度作为修正变量对基本模型进行修正研究结果表明,构建的模型能够较好的描述路内停车对通行能力的影响,引入非机动车的影响更符合机非混行环境中路内停车交通影响的机理。
(4)在路内停车行为特性分析的基础上,建立考虑路内停车影响的交通流仿真模型,研究路内停车对交通流运行状况的影响。以NaSch模型为基础,建立路内停车影响下的机动车交通流元胞自动机模型,按照直行车辆、驶入停车位车辆和驶出停车位车辆三个类型分别设定仿真模拟规则,并分三个场景进行数值模拟。结果表明,路内停车对交通流运行状态具有显著影响,会导致道路通行能力下降,速度降低；路内停车发生频率、停车机动持续时间都是显著影响因素。
(5)在对路内停车的交通影响进行建模分析和仿真模拟的基础上,探讨了路内停车规划设计方法和改进措施。提出由空间位置选址到服务时间分配,最后进行停车位设计的路内停车规划设计方法。并根据非机动车道和机非混行车道中路内停车对非机动车交通产生影响的特点,对车位标线和警示标志进行改进设计,以期减少路内停车对非机动车的影响并改善非机动车交通环境。此外,还针对当前路内停车问题提出相应的改善措施。
On-street parking is not only an effective means of providing more parking space and balancing the parking demand and supply, but also flexible in design and installation and convenient to access. On the other hand, due to its occupancy of roadway resources, on-street parking can significantly impact traffic performance and safety. Unreasonable on-street parking, in particular, has become a significant cause of traffic congestion. Therefore, it is important for the field of urban transport planning and management to understand the influence of on-street parking on traffic performance, analyze the essence and foundation of on-street impact and provide theoretical basis for on-street parking planning and management. Nowadays, the rapid growth in parking demand in China makes on-street parking a crucial role in urban parking supply in the near future. However, there are still some problems about on-street parking that have not been solved, and the planning and management of on-street parking need more theoretical bases. Moreover, the mixed traffic consisting of motorized vehicles and non-motorized vehicles and the relation between on-street parking and non-motorized traffic can increase the complicacy of the influence of on-street parking.
Based on the problems mentioned above, the influence of on-street parking is investigated from two aspects in this dissertation. Firstly, trajectory analysis is applied to investigate the influence of on-street parking on lateral driving behaviour of motorized vehicle drivers and non-motorized vehicle drivers under the mixed traffic circumstance. In this way, the modification of driving behaviour and driving space demand are discussed. Also, the lane-crossing behaviour of non-motorized vehicle is modeled based on the influence of on-street parking. Secondly, the influence of on-street parking on traffic performance is investigated by using theoretical models and simulations. The travel time and delay under the influence of on-street parking are studied via the travel time duration model, the capacity of two-lane street is modeled based on the conflict technique, and some simulating models are established to evaluate the traffic performance under the influence of on-street parking. The contents of this dissertation are as follows:
(1) The regular pattern that the on-street parking can impact the lateral positions of moving trajectory of vehicles is investigated by using trajectory capture and analysis. According to the empirical data and analysis results, it can be concluded that on-street parking can impact the distribution of lateral positions of vehicles significantly, and that offset distance of motorized vehicles is in direct proportion to the occupancy width of on-street parking. Furthermore, in order to analyze the lane-crossing behaviour of non-motorized vehicles under the influence of on-street parking in the non-motorized vehicle lane, the lifetime analysis method is adopted to model such behaviour involved with non-motorized vehicle volume. The results indicate the significance of the influence of on-street parking on the lane-crossing behaviour.
(2) Considering the influence of on-street parking, a hazard-based duration model is proposed to analyze the influence of on-street parking on travel time and delay based on the Cox duration model. The distribution of travel time is described by continuance probability. Some influential factors that are related to on-street parking, such as the effective lane width, the travel conflicts, the occupancy and the turnover, are adopted as covariates. Moreover, the relative hazard ratio is used to give a quantitative analysis of the delay that is caused by on-street parking. The results show that the model can fit the data well and that the covariates in the model have significant influence on travel time. Among the selected covariates, the effective lane width has a positive effect on travel time in a way that the increase in the lane width can shorten the travel time, while other covariates, such as the travel conflicts, the occupancy and the turnover have a negative effect. The quantitative results in this study can provide basis for decision making in the planning and management of on-street parking.
(3) A capacity model for a two-way two-lane urban street is proposed based on the framework of conflict technique and time-headway analysis by combining basic model with parameter modification. The conflict technique is adopted to describe the interaction between the parking manoeuvres and moving vehicles. In view of the mixed traffic circumstance, the conflicts are classified into three types:conflicts between moving vehicles and parking vehicles, conflicts between moving vehicle and non-motorized vehicles and conflicts among moving vehicle, parking vehicles and non-motorized vehicles. According to the fundamentals of these three conflicts, the basic capacity model is proposed. Then, three parameters, i.e. effective lane width, turnover and lane width of non-motorized vehicle lane, are used to modify the basic model. The results indicate that the new model can reflect the influence of on-street parking on capacity, and taking the non-motorized vehicles into consideration is in accordance with the mechanism of vehicle interactions in mixed traffic circumstance.
(4) Traffic simulating is performed to investigate the influence of on-street parking on traffic flow based on the analysis of characteristics of on-street parking. A cellular automaton model is proposed to depict the motorized vehicle flow under the influence of on-street parking. The vehicles in the system are classified into three types:through vehicles, parking vehicles and unparking vehicles. Each type of vehicles is assigned with specific moving rules, and all the vehicles update their velocities and positions according to the NaSch cellular automaton model. The numerical simulation results show that on-street parking has a significant impact on traffic state and can decrease the volume and velocity of the motorized vehicle flow. The frequency of parking manoeuvre and the duration of parking manoeuvre are crucial influential factors.
(5) The methods and improvement measures for planning and designing on-street parking facilities are discussed based on the modelling and simulating of the influence of on-street parking. A three-step method is proposed, namely spatial location selection, service time distribution and parking stall designing. Suggestions in parking stall designing and marking are made to improve the traffic conditions for non-motorized vehicles. Additionally, some correction measures are proposed to decrease the influence of on-street parking.
引文
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