房地产估价定量分析模型
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摘要
市场比较法、收益法和成本法是我国房地产估价的基本方法,它们在实际运
用中存在着一个共同的问题:过于主观化,即依赖于房地产估价师的主观经验。
这不仅使估价结果显得不可靠,更有可能引发道德风险,不利于整个房地产市场
的规范与发展,因此,在房地产估价过程中建立定量分析的模型、减弱人为因素
的影响,是解决这一问题的迫切需要。
市场比较法在其主要操作环节上没有确定统一的模式,很大程度上依赖于房
地产估价师根据自己的经验做出判定,不同的房地产估价师对同一房地产进行评
估可能会得出迥异的结论,且无法检验其准确性。将模糊综合评判方法用于可比
实例的因素修正可减轻估价过程中的主观化问题。建立因素修正的FCE模型对可
比实例的各因素进行修正,可将其交易价格修正到与估价对象因素相同或相近的
价格。
收益法中过于主观化的表现主要在于资本化率的求取。现行资本化率的四种
确定方法在实际操作中不能对影响资本化率的风险因素进行准确的界定。不同房
地产估价师根据相同的情况得出的资本化率的细微差距会导致估价结果的较大波
动。将人工神经网络用于确定资本化率,输入影响资本化率的主要因素,利用BP
网络的自适应学习的特点进行反复训练和自我学习,可得出趋于稳定的输出,即
资本化率。
过于主观化在成本法中的表现在于房地产客观成本和建筑物成新度的确定。
本论文对现行确定客观成本的方法进行剖析,得出了客观成本应以实际成本为基
础计算、而不应以同类房地产的社会平均成本计算的结论,并建立了求取客观成
本的模型。同时将人工神经网络用于确定建筑物的成新度,以城乡建设保护部发
布的《房屋完损等级评定标准》中所规定的影响建筑物成新度的12个因素作为输
入,经过隐含层的反复训练和学习,得出趋于稳定的输出——成新度。
市场比较法、收益法和成本法的应用条件和使用范围是有差异的,如何根据
不同的条件选用恰当的方法也是估价过程中必须关注的要点之一。
Market Comparison Approach, Income Approach and Cost Approach are the three basic approaches in our nation's Real Estate Appraisal. In practice, there exists a common problem in the approaches, that is, the appraisal processes are all too subjective, depending on the experience of the real estate appraisers too much. This not only will make the result of appraising unreliable, but also may result in the moral risk, and then go against on the development of the whole real estate market. So it's in urgent necessary to set up models to make quantitative analysis in the appraisal process.In Market Comparison Approach, there isn't a fixed model in the process. The appraisers make the result depending on, in a great degree, their own experience, so, upon the same real estate, different appraisers may make out different results. By using Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation (FCE) in modifying the factors of comparable property, that is, set a FCE model in the process of Market Comparison Approach can not only weaken the function of appraisers' personal experience, but also put forward an objective result.In Income Approach, the process of getting the capitalization rate, a key factor in this approach, is too subjective, different appraisers may bring out different results according to their different experience. The small difference of capitalization rate may bring on the great difference of appraisal result. Using the Back-Propagation(BP) of Artificial Neural Net(ANN), putting in the main effect-factors of capitalization rate, and then the BP net will train thousands of times till the result go steady , that is the output of the net, capitalization rate.Cost approach puts up too subjectively by the confirmation of the objective-cost and the fresh degree of the subject property. Analyzing the method of confirming the objective-cost, it come to the conclusion that objective-cost should be calculated by the real-cost, but not the society average cost of the similar properties, and meanwhile, sets up a model for getting the objective-cost. The thesis uses Artificial Neural Net to confirm the fresh degree of the subject property, puts the 12 factors, which prescribed in 'Building Damage Grade Evaluation Standard'—a standard issued by the Construction Protection Part, that influence the building's fresh degree into this ANN model. Byrepeated training and studying, we can get the steady output——fresh degree of thesubject property.There is some difference in the applying condition of Market Comparison Approach, Income Approach and Cost Approach. How to choose the right method by different condition is also one of the key points that real estates appraisers must notice in the appraisal process.
用中存在着一个共同的问题:过于主观化,即依赖于房地产估价师的主观经验。
这不仅使估价结果显得不可靠,更有可能引发道德风险,不利于整个房地产市场
的规范与发展,因此,在房地产估价过程中建立定量分析的模型、减弱人为因素
的影响,是解决这一问题的迫切需要。
市场比较法在其主要操作环节上没有确定统一的模式,很大程度上依赖于房
地产估价师根据自己的经验做出判定,不同的房地产估价师对同一房地产进行评
估可能会得出迥异的结论,且无法检验其准确性。将模糊综合评判方法用于可比
实例的因素修正可减轻估价过程中的主观化问题。建立因素修正的FCE模型对可
比实例的各因素进行修正,可将其交易价格修正到与估价对象因素相同或相近的
价格。
收益法中过于主观化的表现主要在于资本化率的求取。现行资本化率的四种
确定方法在实际操作中不能对影响资本化率的风险因素进行准确的界定。不同房
地产估价师根据相同的情况得出的资本化率的细微差距会导致估价结果的较大波
动。将人工神经网络用于确定资本化率,输入影响资本化率的主要因素,利用BP
网络的自适应学习的特点进行反复训练和自我学习,可得出趋于稳定的输出,即
资本化率。
过于主观化在成本法中的表现在于房地产客观成本和建筑物成新度的确定。
本论文对现行确定客观成本的方法进行剖析,得出了客观成本应以实际成本为基
础计算、而不应以同类房地产的社会平均成本计算的结论,并建立了求取客观成
本的模型。同时将人工神经网络用于确定建筑物的成新度,以城乡建设保护部发
布的《房屋完损等级评定标准》中所规定的影响建筑物成新度的12个因素作为输
入,经过隐含层的反复训练和学习,得出趋于稳定的输出——成新度。
市场比较法、收益法和成本法的应用条件和使用范围是有差异的,如何根据
不同的条件选用恰当的方法也是估价过程中必须关注的要点之一。
Market Comparison Approach, Income Approach and Cost Approach are the three basic approaches in our nation's Real Estate Appraisal. In practice, there exists a common problem in the approaches, that is, the appraisal processes are all too subjective, depending on the experience of the real estate appraisers too much. This not only will make the result of appraising unreliable, but also may result in the moral risk, and then go against on the development of the whole real estate market. So it's in urgent necessary to set up models to make quantitative analysis in the appraisal process.In Market Comparison Approach, there isn't a fixed model in the process. The appraisers make the result depending on, in a great degree, their own experience, so, upon the same real estate, different appraisers may make out different results. By using Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation (FCE) in modifying the factors of comparable property, that is, set a FCE model in the process of Market Comparison Approach can not only weaken the function of appraisers' personal experience, but also put forward an objective result.In Income Approach, the process of getting the capitalization rate, a key factor in this approach, is too subjective, different appraisers may bring out different results according to their different experience. The small difference of capitalization rate may bring on the great difference of appraisal result. Using the Back-Propagation(BP) of Artificial Neural Net(ANN), putting in the main effect-factors of capitalization rate, and then the BP net will train thousands of times till the result go steady , that is the output of the net, capitalization rate.Cost approach puts up too subjectively by the confirmation of the objective-cost and the fresh degree of the subject property. Analyzing the method of confirming the objective-cost, it come to the conclusion that objective-cost should be calculated by the real-cost, but not the society average cost of the similar properties, and meanwhile, sets up a model for getting the objective-cost. The thesis uses Artificial Neural Net to confirm the fresh degree of the subject property, puts the 12 factors, which prescribed in 'Building Damage Grade Evaluation Standard'—a standard issued by the Construction Protection Part, that influence the building's fresh degree into this ANN model. Byrepeated training and studying, we can get the steady output——fresh degree of thesubject property.There is some difference in the applying condition of Market Comparison Approach, Income Approach and Cost Approach. How to choose the right method by different condition is also one of the key points that real estates appraisers must notice in the appraisal process.
引文
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[2] Sofia Dermisi. A Study of U.S. Internet Real Estate Office Market and a Comparison of the Internet versus Traditional Markets in Boston/U.S. and London/U.K[D]. Harvard University, 2002, 7
[3] 施建刚.房地产估价方法的拓展[M].上海:同济大学出版社,2003.11-15
[4] 王家庭.房地产估价[M].大连:东北财经大学出版社,2001
[5] 王克忠,张维然,杨国诚.房地产估价理论与方法[M].北京:高等教育出版社,1999
[6] 高幸奇.房地产估价[M].北京:中国物价出版社,2003
[7] 叶剑平.房地产估价[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2002
[8] 柴强.房地产估价[M].北京:首都经济贸易大学出版社,2003
[9] Haseeb Jamee Ahmed. An Examination of Real Estate Appraisal Patterns In The Residential Mortgage Market M.B.A., Jacksonville State University, 1998,5
[10] 中国房地产估价师学会.房地产估价法规汇编[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2003
[11] GB/T50291-1999,中华人民共和国房地产估价规范[S].
[12] Wolverton.Marvin L., Gallimore.Paul. A cross-cultural comparison of the appraisal profession[J]. The Appraisal Journal, 1999,(1):47-56
[13] The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyor. Appraisal and Valuation Standards[R]. 2003
[14] Hans R. Isakson, The Linear Algebra of the sales Comparison Approach[J]. Journal of Real Estate Research, 2002, (2): 117-128
[15] Harry Yasumoto. Innovative Map Applications For Real Estate Appraisal Reports[D]. Golden Gate University, San Francisco, California, 1985,4
[16] 中国房地产估价师学会.房地产估价报告精选[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2003
[17] 建设部房地产业司.房地产评估实例精粹[M]:北京:中国矿业大学出版社,1994
[18] 宗臻玲.加强房地产评估市场环境建设,促进评估业健康发展[J].中国房地产估价师,2003,(1):24-25
[19] 李勇,程翔.房地产估价机构的执业风险与防范[A].北京:2003 中国房地产学术研讨会论文集[C].2003.45-50
[20] 卡尔·马克思.资本论(第三卷)[M].北京:人民出版社,1975,703、759
[21] 威廉·配弟.赋税论[A],配弟经济著作选[M].北京:商务印书馆,1981
[22] 弗朗西斯·魁奈.谷物论[M].北京:商务印书馆,1981
[23] 亚当·斯密.国民财富的性质和原因的研究[M].北京:商务印书馆,1972
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