房地产估价中市场比较法的完善研究
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摘要
市场比较法是参照于估价时点近期类似房地产的实际成本价格来评定待估房地产价格的一种估价方法。由于市场法比较法相较于其它方法评估原理简单易懂,最重要的是在评估过程能直接反映房地产的市场状态,这些特点使其在评估方法体系中成为最简单、最直接、最常用的一种方法,得到国际评估界的公认。我国《房地产估价规范》规定:在有条件的地方必须运用市场比较法来评估土地或房地产价格。所以如何科学地运用市场比较法进行房地产估价已经成为一种趋势,是我国房地产界迫切需要解决的问题。
本文从理论上对房地产价格的影响因素、房地产评估的内容、原则及特点、市场比较法的运用原理、步骤及运用现状做了深入研究,总结了市场比较法在我国运用过程中存在的主要问题和难点:可比实例选择的随意性,因素修正的主观性、不完备性,交易案例不易得到,并就这些问题提出了新的算法和自己独特的见解。
在本文中,首先是运用模式识别模型进行可比实例的选择,在此模型的运用过程中,先论证了其的可行性,然后就模型中一直没能很好解决的特征因素隶属度和权重求解问题提出了两种新的算法,提高了精度,很好的解决了问题;接着在因素的修正中,提出房地产权益的修正不容忽视,并提出新的修正算法;第三,运用模糊综合评判模型的特点进行区域因素和个别因素的确定;最后利用改进后的平滑指数法进行综合价格的求取。对于上面这些修正,在本课题中均结合估价实例进行演算,并对传统市场比较法和改进后的比较法精度进行了比较说明,证明了改进算法的可行性。
本文还对改善我国估价案例库匮乏的现状提出了中肯的建议,就改进算法的研究结果进行了总结,并指出市场比较法是一门与计算机密切相关的方法,应该加大计算机在市场比较法中的运用。
Market comparison approach is a means of evaluating the price of real estate with reference to the real cost price of current real estate with similar qualifications. The approach is universally recognized as one of the simplest, the most direct and the most frequently used methods in the international evaluating system of real estate. On one hand, the working principles of market comparison approach are easy to understand compared with other methods; on the other hand, it directly reflects situation of the real estate market. China Real Estate Regulation stipulates that if conditions permitted, market comparison approach must be employed in evaluating both land and real estate. It is now a trend to use market comparison approach to evaluate real estate, and how to scientifically use it is a problem to be urgently solved in real estate.The thesis attempts to make theatrical research in three aspects: the characteristics of real estate prices and factors affecting these prices; the content, principles, and characteristics of real estate evaluation; the working principles, procedures and present situation of market comparison approach. The thesis also summarizes the major problems and difficulties arising in the usage of market comparison approach, such as the random choice of comparative case, the subjectivity and incompletion of elements-revising, the inaccessibility of transaction case. To solve these problems, the author put forward a new calculating method and her own original idea about these problems.The thesis is divided into three parts. Firstly, the author establishes the fuzzy pattern recognition's model for selecting com parable instances , and then prove the feasibility of the practice. Two calculating methods are advanced responding to fix membership grade and weight, two issues still not satisfactorily explored, and in the way, the degree of precision is improved. Secondly, the author believes that the rights and interests of real estate should not be ignored in elements-revising and put forward new calculating method of revising elements. Thirdly, district factors and specific elements are fixed by resorting to the characteristics of fuzzy complex evaluation, and the comprehensive price is figured out with the help of the improved the first smooth index。 All the above revisions are based on the calculations in evaluating case. A comparison is made on the degree of precision between the traditional market comparison approach and the improved one, thus the feasibility of improved one is proved.
Finally, pertinent suggestions are given on dealing with the insufficiency of evaluating cases. The author also summarizes the achievements in improving calculating methods and points out that market comparison approach is closely related to computer technology and the usage of computer should be enhanced in market comparison approach.
本文从理论上对房地产价格的影响因素、房地产评估的内容、原则及特点、市场比较法的运用原理、步骤及运用现状做了深入研究,总结了市场比较法在我国运用过程中存在的主要问题和难点:可比实例选择的随意性,因素修正的主观性、不完备性,交易案例不易得到,并就这些问题提出了新的算法和自己独特的见解。
在本文中,首先是运用模式识别模型进行可比实例的选择,在此模型的运用过程中,先论证了其的可行性,然后就模型中一直没能很好解决的特征因素隶属度和权重求解问题提出了两种新的算法,提高了精度,很好的解决了问题;接着在因素的修正中,提出房地产权益的修正不容忽视,并提出新的修正算法;第三,运用模糊综合评判模型的特点进行区域因素和个别因素的确定;最后利用改进后的平滑指数法进行综合价格的求取。对于上面这些修正,在本课题中均结合估价实例进行演算,并对传统市场比较法和改进后的比较法精度进行了比较说明,证明了改进算法的可行性。
本文还对改善我国估价案例库匮乏的现状提出了中肯的建议,就改进算法的研究结果进行了总结,并指出市场比较法是一门与计算机密切相关的方法,应该加大计算机在市场比较法中的运用。
Market comparison approach is a means of evaluating the price of real estate with reference to the real cost price of current real estate with similar qualifications. The approach is universally recognized as one of the simplest, the most direct and the most frequently used methods in the international evaluating system of real estate. On one hand, the working principles of market comparison approach are easy to understand compared with other methods; on the other hand, it directly reflects situation of the real estate market. China Real Estate Regulation stipulates that if conditions permitted, market comparison approach must be employed in evaluating both land and real estate. It is now a trend to use market comparison approach to evaluate real estate, and how to scientifically use it is a problem to be urgently solved in real estate.The thesis attempts to make theatrical research in three aspects: the characteristics of real estate prices and factors affecting these prices; the content, principles, and characteristics of real estate evaluation; the working principles, procedures and present situation of market comparison approach. The thesis also summarizes the major problems and difficulties arising in the usage of market comparison approach, such as the random choice of comparative case, the subjectivity and incompletion of elements-revising, the inaccessibility of transaction case. To solve these problems, the author put forward a new calculating method and her own original idea about these problems.The thesis is divided into three parts. Firstly, the author establishes the fuzzy pattern recognition's model for selecting com parable instances , and then prove the feasibility of the practice. Two calculating methods are advanced responding to fix membership grade and weight, two issues still not satisfactorily explored, and in the way, the degree of precision is improved. Secondly, the author believes that the rights and interests of real estate should not be ignored in elements-revising and put forward new calculating method of revising elements. Thirdly, district factors and specific elements are fixed by resorting to the characteristics of fuzzy complex evaluation, and the comprehensive price is figured out with the help of the improved the first smooth index。 All the above revisions are based on the calculations in evaluating case. A comparison is made on the degree of precision between the traditional market comparison approach and the improved one, thus the feasibility of improved one is proved.
Finally, pertinent suggestions are given on dealing with the insufficiency of evaluating cases. The author also summarizes the achievements in improving calculating methods and points out that market comparison approach is closely related to computer technology and the usage of computer should be enhanced in market comparison approach.
引文
[1] 王家庭.房地产估价[M].大连:东北财经大学出版社,2001.
[2] 俞明轩.房地产评估[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2004.
[3] 叶剑平.房地产估价[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2002.
[4] 中国房地产估价师学会.房地产估价理论与方法[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2004.
[5] 张宗元.模糊数学入门和在建筑管理中的应用[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,1991.
[6] 王新洲,史文中,王树良.模糊空间信息处理[M].湖北:武汉大学出版社,2003.
[7] 贺仲雄.模糊数学及其应用[M].天津:天津科技技术出版社,1983.
[8] 国家质量技术监督局,中华人民共和国建设部.房地产估价规范(GB/T 50291—1999).北京:中国建筑工业出版社,1999
[9] 王秀丽,骆汉宾.市场比较法估价中可比案例选择研究[J].华中科技大学学报(城市科学版),2003,12(4):89—91.
[10] 刘敬学,费奇.一种确定协商评价问题属性权重的方法[J].控制与决策,2005 6(20).
[11] Yager R R. On ordered weighted averaging aggregation operators in multi criteria decision making [J].IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, 1988,18:183-190
[12] Yager R R. Induced aggregation operators [J]. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 2003, 137:59-69.
[13] 马荣国,刘艳妮.公路建设项目综合评价权重确定方法[J].交通运输工程学报,2005.
[14] 许国志.系统科学[M].上海:上海科技出版社,2000.
[15] 左军.层次分析法中判断矩阵的间接给出法[J].系统工程,1998,(6):56—63.
[16] 徐泽水.层次分析析中构造判断矩阵的新方法[J].系统工程,1997(增刊):204—206.
[17] 徐泽水.层次分析新标度法[J].系统工程理论与实践,1998,18(10):74—77.
[18] Saaty T L. The Analytic Hierarchy Process [M]. M c G raw -Hill Inc. New York, 1980.
[19] 汪浩,马达.层次分析标度评价与新标度法[J].系统工程理论与实践,1993,13(5):24—26.
[20] 侯岳衡,沈德家.指数标度及其与几种标度的比较[J].系统工程理论与实践,1995,15(10):43—46.
[21] 楼裕胜.房地产价格指数的若干问题探讨[J].统计与决策,2005.
[22] 施建刚.房地产估价方法的拓展[M].同济大学出版社,2003.
[23] 何仁斌.Matlab 6工程计算及应用[M].重庆大学出版社,2001.
[24] 李庆阳,王能超,易大义.数值分析(第四版) [M].清华大学出版社,2001.
[25] 杨纶标,高英仪.模糊数学原理及应用(第三版)[M].华南理工大学出版社,2001.
[26] 王玉.收益性房地参估价方法的研究.硕士论文,2002.
[27] 次凤敏.完善房地产估价方法的研究.硕士论文,2000.
[28] 沈良峰.房地产估价基本方法参数的改进研究.硕士论文,2003.
[29] 李守光.房地产估价研究.硕士论文,2004.
[30] 吴立平,潘永强,任宏.模糊模式识别在房地产评估中选取可比实例的应用[J].重庆建筑大学学报,2000,22(5).
[31] 吴智超.模糊综合评判在房地产估价中的应用[J].武汉城市建设学院学报,1997,14 (4).
[32] 柴强.房地产估价理论与方法[M].中国物价出版社,2001.
[33] 张协奎.房地产估价方法与应用[M].武汉工业大学出版社,2000.
[34] 王祯显.土木建筑工程管理中的模糊数学方法[M].长沙:湖南大学出版社,1988.
[35] Appraisal Institute, The Appraiser's Workbook, 2d ed[M]. Chicago, 1993.
[36] Brtton, W. et al, Modern Methods of Property Valuation[J], Estate Gazettee, London, 1989.
[37] 彭祖赠,孙韫玉.模糊数学及其应用[M].武汉大学出版社,2002,(26)
[38] 马谋超,词义赋值的模糊统计分析[J].心理学报,1990,(1):51-57.(27)
[39] 李亚红,胡文东,徐志鹏.多级语义量词对心理测量适合度的调查分析[J].心理科学 2005,28(1):175—177.(28)
[40] 谢季坚,刘承平.模糊数学方法及其应用(第2版)[M].武汉:华中科技大学出版社,2001.(29)
[41] 何国松.基于房地产估价信息系统的市场比较法研究[J].咸宁师专学报,2001,21(6).
[2] 俞明轩.房地产评估[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2004.
[3] 叶剑平.房地产估价[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2002.
[4] 中国房地产估价师学会.房地产估价理论与方法[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2004.
[5] 张宗元.模糊数学入门和在建筑管理中的应用[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,1991.
[6] 王新洲,史文中,王树良.模糊空间信息处理[M].湖北:武汉大学出版社,2003.
[7] 贺仲雄.模糊数学及其应用[M].天津:天津科技技术出版社,1983.
[8] 国家质量技术监督局,中华人民共和国建设部.房地产估价规范(GB/T 50291—1999).北京:中国建筑工业出版社,1999
[9] 王秀丽,骆汉宾.市场比较法估价中可比案例选择研究[J].华中科技大学学报(城市科学版),2003,12(4):89—91.
[10] 刘敬学,费奇.一种确定协商评价问题属性权重的方法[J].控制与决策,2005 6(20).
[11] Yager R R. On ordered weighted averaging aggregation operators in multi criteria decision making [J].IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, 1988,18:183-190
[12] Yager R R. Induced aggregation operators [J]. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 2003, 137:59-69.
[13] 马荣国,刘艳妮.公路建设项目综合评价权重确定方法[J].交通运输工程学报,2005.
[14] 许国志.系统科学[M].上海:上海科技出版社,2000.
[15] 左军.层次分析法中判断矩阵的间接给出法[J].系统工程,1998,(6):56—63.
[16] 徐泽水.层次分析析中构造判断矩阵的新方法[J].系统工程,1997(增刊):204—206.
[17] 徐泽水.层次分析新标度法[J].系统工程理论与实践,1998,18(10):74—77.
[18] Saaty T L. The Analytic Hierarchy Process [M]. M c G raw -Hill Inc. New York, 1980.
[19] 汪浩,马达.层次分析标度评价与新标度法[J].系统工程理论与实践,1993,13(5):24—26.
[20] 侯岳衡,沈德家.指数标度及其与几种标度的比较[J].系统工程理论与实践,1995,15(10):43—46.
[21] 楼裕胜.房地产价格指数的若干问题探讨[J].统计与决策,2005.
[22] 施建刚.房地产估价方法的拓展[M].同济大学出版社,2003.
[23] 何仁斌.Matlab 6工程计算及应用[M].重庆大学出版社,2001.
[24] 李庆阳,王能超,易大义.数值分析(第四版) [M].清华大学出版社,2001.
[25] 杨纶标,高英仪.模糊数学原理及应用(第三版)[M].华南理工大学出版社,2001.
[26] 王玉.收益性房地参估价方法的研究.硕士论文,2002.
[27] 次凤敏.完善房地产估价方法的研究.硕士论文,2000.
[28] 沈良峰.房地产估价基本方法参数的改进研究.硕士论文,2003.
[29] 李守光.房地产估价研究.硕士论文,2004.
[30] 吴立平,潘永强,任宏.模糊模式识别在房地产评估中选取可比实例的应用[J].重庆建筑大学学报,2000,22(5).
[31] 吴智超.模糊综合评判在房地产估价中的应用[J].武汉城市建设学院学报,1997,14 (4).
[32] 柴强.房地产估价理论与方法[M].中国物价出版社,2001.
[33] 张协奎.房地产估价方法与应用[M].武汉工业大学出版社,2000.
[34] 王祯显.土木建筑工程管理中的模糊数学方法[M].长沙:湖南大学出版社,1988.
[35] Appraisal Institute, The Appraiser's Workbook, 2d ed[M]. Chicago, 1993.
[36] Brtton, W. et al, Modern Methods of Property Valuation[J], Estate Gazettee, London, 1989.
[37] 彭祖赠,孙韫玉.模糊数学及其应用[M].武汉大学出版社,2002,(26)
[38] 马谋超,词义赋值的模糊统计分析[J].心理学报,1990,(1):51-57.(27)
[39] 李亚红,胡文东,徐志鹏.多级语义量词对心理测量适合度的调查分析[J].心理科学 2005,28(1):175—177.(28)
[40] 谢季坚,刘承平.模糊数学方法及其应用(第2版)[M].武汉:华中科技大学出版社,2001.(29)
[41] 何国松.基于房地产估价信息系统的市场比较法研究[J].咸宁师专学报,2001,21(6).