基于模糊综合评判的市场比较法在土地评估中的应用
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摘要
由于我国房地产业起步较晚,土地市场上的评估思想和评估方法还不成熟,估价结果可信度较低[1,2],土地市场面临着急需探求一种科学、有效的评估方法的难题。GB《房地产估价规范》5.1.4:有条件选用市场比较法进行估价的,应以市场比较法为主要的估价方法。
本文正是以上述问题的解决为目标,对现行市场比较法做了彻底剖析,认为其在实际运用中存在着一个主要问题:主观化,即过度依赖于价格评估人员的主观经验,这不仅使估价结果显得不可靠,更有可能引发道德风险,不利于整个土地市场的规范与发展。因此,本文基于模糊综合评判思想建立了市场法估价定量分析模型:首先,认为对某土地市场价格影响的因素是多而复杂的,建立了客观合理的价格评估指标体系;其次,采用层次分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process)对评估类型地产的各个影响因素权重进行合理的确定;再次,采用模糊综合评判(Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation)对各个可比实例进行科学评判;最后,采用模糊模式识别中的贴近度来确定可比实例与估价对象的相似程度继而来求取最后的比准价格。同时对模型应用的可行性以实证分析来验证,结论为:应用模型估价能明显提高估价精度。
通过市场法比较法定量分析模型的建立来减弱人为因素的影响,试图为地价评估工作打开新思路,探求出一种科学、有效的评估方法。
As the beginning of the Chinese real estate industry was late, the ideology and method about land appraisal are not mature. Some reliability of appraisal is lower, and land market was forced search for a scientific and effective method to solve these problems. GB《Code for Real Estate Appraisal》5.1.4:If there was a possibility to select Market Comparison Approach, it should be made as the main method.
This study is based on how to solve the above problems. With analyzed the actual Market Comparison Approach, we found the problem in actual use is depending on objective view of assessors too much. It will make the result of valuation not credible, but also bring morality risk. These could not make the development of real estate market normative. Therefore, this study found a Market Approach of Valuation Quantitative Analysis Model based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation ideology. First of all, to be considered that some land price is influenced by many complicated factors, it has established an objective and reasonable system in price valuation index. Second, it confirmed the weight of factors which influence the type of land by AHP. Moreover, the comparable example was valued scientifically by Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation. Finally, it confirmed the similitude of comparable examples and valuing subject by the approximation in Fuzzy Patten identification, and computed the final standard system. Then, the feasibility of model was examined by certified conclusion, and drew a conclusion that it was more exact to value by application model than by market comparison approach.
The establishment of market comparison approach valuation can degrease the human factors, we try to make new ideology in the valuation on real estate and search for a valuing method that is scientific and effective.
本文正是以上述问题的解决为目标,对现行市场比较法做了彻底剖析,认为其在实际运用中存在着一个主要问题:主观化,即过度依赖于价格评估人员的主观经验,这不仅使估价结果显得不可靠,更有可能引发道德风险,不利于整个土地市场的规范与发展。因此,本文基于模糊综合评判思想建立了市场法估价定量分析模型:首先,认为对某土地市场价格影响的因素是多而复杂的,建立了客观合理的价格评估指标体系;其次,采用层次分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process)对评估类型地产的各个影响因素权重进行合理的确定;再次,采用模糊综合评判(Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation)对各个可比实例进行科学评判;最后,采用模糊模式识别中的贴近度来确定可比实例与估价对象的相似程度继而来求取最后的比准价格。同时对模型应用的可行性以实证分析来验证,结论为:应用模型估价能明显提高估价精度。
通过市场法比较法定量分析模型的建立来减弱人为因素的影响,试图为地价评估工作打开新思路,探求出一种科学、有效的评估方法。
As the beginning of the Chinese real estate industry was late, the ideology and method about land appraisal are not mature. Some reliability of appraisal is lower, and land market was forced search for a scientific and effective method to solve these problems. GB《Code for Real Estate Appraisal》5.1.4:If there was a possibility to select Market Comparison Approach, it should be made as the main method.
This study is based on how to solve the above problems. With analyzed the actual Market Comparison Approach, we found the problem in actual use is depending on objective view of assessors too much. It will make the result of valuation not credible, but also bring morality risk. These could not make the development of real estate market normative. Therefore, this study found a Market Approach of Valuation Quantitative Analysis Model based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation ideology. First of all, to be considered that some land price is influenced by many complicated factors, it has established an objective and reasonable system in price valuation index. Second, it confirmed the weight of factors which influence the type of land by AHP. Moreover, the comparable example was valued scientifically by Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation. Finally, it confirmed the similitude of comparable examples and valuing subject by the approximation in Fuzzy Patten identification, and computed the final standard system. Then, the feasibility of model was examined by certified conclusion, and drew a conclusion that it was more exact to value by application model than by market comparison approach.
The establishment of market comparison approach valuation can degrease the human factors, we try to make new ideology in the valuation on real estate and search for a valuing method that is scientific and effective.
引文
1 张协奎,陈伟清,成文山,李树压.基于模糊数学的市场比较法研究[J].中国管理科学,2001,Vol.4(9):37-42
2 楼裕胜.房地产价格指数的若干问题探讨[J].统计与决策,2005,Vol.22(4):22-23
3 谢经荣.土壤潜力评价[J].国土与自然资源研究,1993,Vol.14(4) :25-29
4 吴立平,潘永强,任宏.模糊模式识别在房地产评估中选取可比实例的应用[J].重庆建筑大学 学报,2000,Vol.22(5):14-16
5 张勇,沈涛,李听.模糊数学综合评判方法在房地产估价中的应用[J].建筑技术开发,2004, Vol.31(5):106-129
6 宋喜民等.房地产市场有效需求分析的灰色数学方法[J].河北建筑科技学院学报,2003,Vol.20(1):20-24
7 吴红华.房地产价格的随机模糊回归法[J].温州大学学报,2005,Vol,18(5):48-49
8 P. W Abelson. House and land prices in Sydney, 1925 to 1970. Macquarie University, School of Economic and financial studies, 1984
9 王学涵,刘金昌.海外房地产估价[M].北京:中国建筑土业出版社,2002.5
10 俞明轩.房地产评估方法与管理[M]. 北京:中国经济出版社,1999
11 邹高禄.以美国为例谈组合投资与房地产投资[J].不动产纵横,2002,Vo1.2(10):7-10
12 黄贤金.小动产估价[M].北京:中国林业出版社,1998
13 北京房地产估价师联合会.北京小动产评估报告选编[M]. 北京:中国农业出版社,1998
14 R. Dodge Woodson. Be a Successful Residential Land Developer. Mc Graw-Hill Professional, 2000. 1
15 朱永升等.影响房地产市场需求因素的灰色关联分析[J].北京理工大学学报,2002, Vol,22(6):29
16 F.Plimmer.etc.房地产估价导论[M].胡至廉等译.北京:中国建筑 f 业出版社,1996.
17 The Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors. RICS Appraisal and Valuation Manual[R].1998
18 Sofia Dermisi.A Study of U.S.Internet Real Estate Office Market and a Comparison of the Internet versus Traditional Markets in Boston/U.S. and London/U.K[D]. Harvard University, 2002, 7
19 施建刚.房地产估价方法的拓展[M].上海:同济大学出版社,2003
20 Richard B. Peiser. Professional Real Estate development. Urban Land Institute 2003.1
21 Nathan S. Collier. Construction Funding: The Process of Real Estate Development, Appraisal, and Finance. Wiley, 2001.12
22 中华人民共和国建设部.GB/T50291-1999,中华人民共和国房地产估价规范.北京:中国建筑工业出版社,1999.06.01
23 任志远.中国西部城市土地定级估价探索与实践[M].北京:科技出版社,2000
24 曲卫东.模糊聚类分析在房地产估价中的应用[D].中国期刊网 www.cnki.net.
25 刘陶琨.模糊聚类分析在土地定级估价商服中心类型划分中的应用[J].测绘信息与工程,2004,Vo1.9 9-11
26 [英]戴维.W.皮尔斯主编.现代经济学词典[M].宋承先等译.上海:上海译文出版社,1988
27 许涤新.政治经济学词典上册[M].北京:人民出版社,1980
28 柴强.房地产估价理论与方法[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2005
29 叶剑平.房地产估价[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2002
30 吴庆玲.房地产价格评估[M].北京:中国建材工业出版社,2004
31 肖辞源.工程模糊系统[M].北京:科学出版社,2004
32 贺仲雄.模糊数学及其应用[M].天津:天津科学技术出版社,1983
33 中国房地产估价师学会.房地产估价理论与方法[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2004
34 谢季坚,刘承平.模糊数学方法及其应用(第二版)[M].华中理工大学出版社,2001
35 谢季坚,刘承平.模糊数学方法及其应用[M].武汉:华中科技大学出版社,2000
36 王秀丽,骆汉宾.市场比较法可比案例的选择研究[J].华中科技大学学(城市科学版)2003,Vo1.20(4):18-19
37 施建刚. 房地产开发项目区位因素分析与研究[J]. 华东经济管理,2001,Vol.8(4):14
38 全国注册资产评估师考试用书编写组.资产评估 2004[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社,2004
39 陈志敏.国外房地产估价制度的分析比较[J].财经科学,2001,增刊:266268
40 黄定轩.基于客观信息墒的多因素权重分配方法[J].系统工程理论方法应用,2004,Vo1.20(4)19-20
41 王家庭.房地产估价[M].大连:东北财经大学出版社,2001
42 施建刚,白庆华.基于模糊数学“快速递减加权式”在比较法评估房地产价格中的应用研究[J].土木工程学报,2003,Vol. 36(3):14-15
43 张协奎,陈伟清,彭建宇,关于影响基准地价评估主要因素权重的确定[J].技术经济, 2000.Vol.14(6):19-22
44 汪浩,马达.层次分析标度评价与新标度法[J].系统工程理论与实践,1993,Vol.13(5):24-26
45 王秀丽,骆汉宾.市场比较法估价中可比案例选择研究[J].华中科技大学学报(城市科学版),2003, Vol.12 (4):89-91
46 次凤敏.完善房地产估价方法的研究[D].硕士论文,2000
47 何国松.基于房地产估价信息系统的市场比较法研究[J].咸宁师专学报,2001,Vol.21(6):14
2 楼裕胜.房地产价格指数的若干问题探讨[J].统计与决策,2005,Vol.22(4):22-23
3 谢经荣.土壤潜力评价[J].国土与自然资源研究,1993,Vol.14(4) :25-29
4 吴立平,潘永强,任宏.模糊模式识别在房地产评估中选取可比实例的应用[J].重庆建筑大学 学报,2000,Vol.22(5):14-16
5 张勇,沈涛,李听.模糊数学综合评判方法在房地产估价中的应用[J].建筑技术开发,2004, Vol.31(5):106-129
6 宋喜民等.房地产市场有效需求分析的灰色数学方法[J].河北建筑科技学院学报,2003,Vol.20(1):20-24
7 吴红华.房地产价格的随机模糊回归法[J].温州大学学报,2005,Vol,18(5):48-49
8 P. W Abelson. House and land prices in Sydney, 1925 to 1970. Macquarie University, School of Economic and financial studies, 1984
9 王学涵,刘金昌.海外房地产估价[M].北京:中国建筑土业出版社,2002.5
10 俞明轩.房地产评估方法与管理[M]. 北京:中国经济出版社,1999
11 邹高禄.以美国为例谈组合投资与房地产投资[J].不动产纵横,2002,Vo1.2(10):7-10
12 黄贤金.小动产估价[M].北京:中国林业出版社,1998
13 北京房地产估价师联合会.北京小动产评估报告选编[M]. 北京:中国农业出版社,1998
14 R. Dodge Woodson. Be a Successful Residential Land Developer. Mc Graw-Hill Professional, 2000. 1
15 朱永升等.影响房地产市场需求因素的灰色关联分析[J].北京理工大学学报,2002, Vol,22(6):29
16 F.Plimmer.etc.房地产估价导论[M].胡至廉等译.北京:中国建筑 f 业出版社,1996.
17 The Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors. RICS Appraisal and Valuation Manual[R].1998
18 Sofia Dermisi.A Study of U.S.Internet Real Estate Office Market and a Comparison of the Internet versus Traditional Markets in Boston/U.S. and London/U.K[D]. Harvard University, 2002, 7
19 施建刚.房地产估价方法的拓展[M].上海:同济大学出版社,2003
20 Richard B. Peiser. Professional Real Estate development. Urban Land Institute 2003.1
21 Nathan S. Collier. Construction Funding: The Process of Real Estate Development, Appraisal, and Finance. Wiley, 2001.12
22 中华人民共和国建设部.GB/T50291-1999,中华人民共和国房地产估价规范.北京:中国建筑工业出版社,1999.06.01
23 任志远.中国西部城市土地定级估价探索与实践[M].北京:科技出版社,2000
24 曲卫东.模糊聚类分析在房地产估价中的应用[D].中国期刊网 www.cnki.net.
25 刘陶琨.模糊聚类分析在土地定级估价商服中心类型划分中的应用[J].测绘信息与工程,2004,Vo1.9 9-11
26 [英]戴维.W.皮尔斯主编.现代经济学词典[M].宋承先等译.上海:上海译文出版社,1988
27 许涤新.政治经济学词典上册[M].北京:人民出版社,1980
28 柴强.房地产估价理论与方法[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2005
29 叶剑平.房地产估价[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2002
30 吴庆玲.房地产价格评估[M].北京:中国建材工业出版社,2004
31 肖辞源.工程模糊系统[M].北京:科学出版社,2004
32 贺仲雄.模糊数学及其应用[M].天津:天津科学技术出版社,1983
33 中国房地产估价师学会.房地产估价理论与方法[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2004
34 谢季坚,刘承平.模糊数学方法及其应用(第二版)[M].华中理工大学出版社,2001
35 谢季坚,刘承平.模糊数学方法及其应用[M].武汉:华中科技大学出版社,2000
36 王秀丽,骆汉宾.市场比较法可比案例的选择研究[J].华中科技大学学(城市科学版)2003,Vo1.20(4):18-19
37 施建刚. 房地产开发项目区位因素分析与研究[J]. 华东经济管理,2001,Vol.8(4):14
38 全国注册资产评估师考试用书编写组.资产评估 2004[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社,2004
39 陈志敏.国外房地产估价制度的分析比较[J].财经科学,2001,增刊:266268
40 黄定轩.基于客观信息墒的多因素权重分配方法[J].系统工程理论方法应用,2004,Vo1.20(4)19-20
41 王家庭.房地产估价[M].大连:东北财经大学出版社,2001
42 施建刚,白庆华.基于模糊数学“快速递减加权式”在比较法评估房地产价格中的应用研究[J].土木工程学报,2003,Vol. 36(3):14-15
43 张协奎,陈伟清,彭建宇,关于影响基准地价评估主要因素权重的确定[J].技术经济, 2000.Vol.14(6):19-22
44 汪浩,马达.层次分析标度评价与新标度法[J].系统工程理论与实践,1993,Vol.13(5):24-26
45 王秀丽,骆汉宾.市场比较法估价中可比案例选择研究[J].华中科技大学学报(城市科学版),2003, Vol.12 (4):89-91
46 次凤敏.完善房地产估价方法的研究[D].硕士论文,2000
47 何国松.基于房地产估价信息系统的市场比较法研究[J].咸宁师专学报,2001,Vol.21(6):14