对外贸易与中国地区经济增长差距：机制分析与实证检验
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摘要
中国地区经济增长差距是近些年经济界密切关注的一个热点问题,迄今的研究涉及到地区经济增长差距的演变发展规律、差距构成以及产生原因等多个角度。但是,已有的研究大多从政府政策、地理区位、要素禀赋等因素入手,关于对外贸易与地区经济增长差距的研究尚不多见,且大多着眼于总体分析,忽略了外贸对地区经济增长差距产生影响的作用机制。不可忽视的是,中国最近20多年的高速增长在很大程度上依靠对外开放,其中对外贸易的作用显得尤其重要。同样不可忽视的是,与区域经济增长非均衡相一致的,地区间对外贸易的不平衡发展。具体而言,东部地区与中西部地区在贸易规模、贸易模式等方面均存在较大差异。而且,从时间上来看,中国经济增长差距的扩大与对外贸易的加速发展几乎是完全同步的。中国各地区对外贸易发展差距的现状,以及这种对外贸易发展差距对地区经济增长差距的影响正是本文关注的主题。本文在对现有文献进行梳理的基础上,将研究扩展到作用机制的考察,从总体影响和作用机制双重角度实证分析对外贸易对中国地区经济增长差距的影响。
本文首先分析了中国对外贸易发展差距的演变趋势、产业和地区结构构成及收敛性。从演变趋势来看,与地区经济发展差距的演变趋势类似,中国对外贸易发展差距的演变基本上处于“U”字型走势之中;从地区结构来看,总体对外贸易发展差异主要是由地区间差异以及东部地区内部差异构成的;从产业结构来看,总体的对外贸易发展差异主要是由制成品贸易上的差异造成的。基于新古典经济理论的收敛性分析表明,总体来说,1978—2005年中国对外贸易发展存在β收敛,但是不存在σ收敛,同时还出现了一定程度的俱乐部收敛特征。
接下来,本文从总体影响和作用机制双重角度分析了对外贸易对中国地区经济增长差距的影响。综合已有的相关研究,本文对索洛模型作了进一步扩展,在MRW趋同检验方程的基础上增加对外贸易因素,采用趋同核算框架具体分析对外贸易对中国地区经济增长差距的总体影响。实证分析结论表明,从各因素对中国省份劳均GDPσ收敛和β收敛的影响来看,物质资本投资和对外贸易是导致中国省份经济发散的主要因素,而趋同效应和人力资本投资则是促进中国省份经济收敛的主要因素,即对外贸易扩大了中国的地区经济增长差距。
为了分析对外贸易影响中国地区经济增长差距的机制,本文从前沿生产函数入手,将产出增长分解为投入要素增加、技术进步和效率提升三个部分。进而指出由于各地区对外贸易发展存在差距,其对当地投入要素增加、技术进步和效率提升的作用差异必将对中国地区经济增长差距产生影响。据此,本文将对外贸易影响地区经济增长差距的机制归纳为三个,分别是:资本积累、技术溢出和制度变迁。并且,本文还分别从这三个机制的角度实证分析对外贸易对中国地区经济增长差距的影响。
从机制角度的实证分析表明,各地区对外贸易发展对资本积累、技术溢出和制度变迁机制的作用均存在较大差异。从资本积累角度来看,“对外贸易——资本积累——经济增长”机制在东部地区和中西部地区存在明显差异,东部地区对外贸易发展通过资本积累对经济增长的影响大于中西部地区对外贸易发展通过资本积累对地区经济增长的影响程度。从技术进步的角度来看,国际R&D溢出对不同地区的影响不同,进口贸易渠道的国际R&D溢出对东部地区的技术进步具有显著的促进作用,但对中西部地区的技术进步却有一定的负面影响。中西部地区未能分享到国际R&D溢出的正面效应,这进一步拉大了东部地区与中西部地区省份的经济增长差距。从制度变迁的角度来看,“对外贸易——制度变迁——经济增长”的作用机制,在不同地区表现不同。大多数东部地区,对外贸易发展通过促进制度变迁而加速了经济增长;而大多数中西部地区,对外贸易仅促进了制度变迁,但尚未对经济增长产生积极作用,或者对外贸易对制度变迁的作用不明显。从经济绩效来看,具备对外贸易通过促进制度变迁而加速经济增长因果关系的省份,经济绩效优于后者。因此,从作用机制角度的实证分析也表明,各地区对外贸易发展对资本积累、技术溢出和制度变迁机制的作用不同,从而扩大了中国的地区经济增长差距。
基于上述分析,本文最后提出了相应的政策建议,以期能够促进对外贸易增长与中国地区经济的协调发展。
China's regional economic growth disparity has received much attention. Previous studies focus on the evolution law, composition and underlying forces of the regional economic growth disparity. However the forgone studies mentioned much about some factors such as policies, geography position, capital investment, and etc, but paid little attention to foreign trade. There are not many studies on the theme of foreign trade and China's regional economic growth disparity, and they focus on the overall effect but the mechanism. China's fast economic growth in the recent twenty years relies heavily on the opening up, especially international trade. Along side with the imbalanced regional economic growth, regional trade development is uneven. In particular, there is much difference between the East and the Midwest with the respect of trade scale and trade mode. Furthermore, the expansion of Chinese regional economic growth disparity and the fast development of foreign trade are almost synchronous. This dissertation focuses on the present situation of Chinese regional foreign trade development difference and its influence to regional economic growth disparity. Based on the literature review, this dissertation extends the literature to the mechanism analysis and empirically examine of the impact of international trade on the regional economic growth disparity from both overall effect and mechanism.
This dissertation firstly analyzes the general trend of China's regional foreign trade disparity, as well as the industrial and regional structure and the convergence of China's regional foreign trade disparity. From the general trend of China's provincial foreign trade development difference, it is similar to the evolvement trend of regional economic growth disparity, which is U-type. From the aspect of region structure, the overall difference in international trade disparity results from the distribution difference among regions and the East disparity. From the aspect of industrial structure, the overall difference in international trade disparity results from the final manufacture. Convergence analysis shows that, on the whole, from 1978 to 2005, there isβ- convergence but notσ- convergence, and there is also some characteristics of club convergence.
The third section analyses the impact of international trade on the regional economic growth disparity from both overall effect and mechanism. Based on previous studies, this dissertation extends the Solow's model and adds the factor of international trade to the MRW convergence equation. Then this dissertation analyzes the impact of international trade on the regional economic growth disparity under the convergence framework. The results show that, from their influence to theσconvergence andβconvergence of GDP per worker, material capital and foreign trade are the main factors which cause Chinese regional economy divergence, while human capital are the main convergence factors. This means foreign trade enlarges China's regional economic growth disparity.
To analyze the mechanisms through which foreign trade influences China's regional economic growth disparity, this dissertation decomposes the output growth into factors increase, technical progress and efficiency advance according to Frontier Production Function. Due to the regional international trade disparity, this will have different impact on factors increase, technical progress and efficiency advance, which in turn affects the regional economic growth difference. Therefore, this dissertation summarizes the mechanisms through which international trade affects the regional economic growth difference as capital accumulation, technology spillover and institution innovation. And this dissertation further studies the effect of foreign trade on China's regional economic disparity by empirical evidence.
Empirical results show that the impact of foreign trade on regional capital accumulation, technology spillover and institution innovation between areas differs greatly. From the aspect of capital accumulation, the "foreign trade- capital accumulation - economic growth" mechanism is very different between the East and the Midwest. Through capital accumulation, foreign trade has much greater influence on economic growth in the Ease than in the Midwest. From the aspect of technology spillover, the influence of international R&D spillover varies among areas. International R&D spillover is beneficial to technical progress in the East, but has negative influence in the Midwest. The Midwest can't share the beneficial effect of international R&D spillover, which will unavoidably enlarge the regional economic growth disparity between the East and the Midwest. From the aspect of institution innovation, the "foreign trade- institution innovation - economic growth" mechanism varies among regions. In most East areas, the development of foreign trade promotes institution innovation, and then accelerates economic growth. While in most Central and West areas, foreign trade can only promote institution innovation and has no effect on economic growth, or its effect on institution innovation is not obvious. As to economic performance, provinces possessing the consequence of foreign trade development promoting institution innovation thus accelerating economic growth do better than the latter. Hence, empirical analysis from the three mechanisms also shows that the impact of foreign trade on capital accumulation, technology spillover and institution innovation differs greatly among areas, and this enlargers China's regional economic disparity.
Based on the above analysis, this dissertation provides some policy suggestions, which will promote China's foreign trade growth and coordinate the regional economic development.
本文首先分析了中国对外贸易发展差距的演变趋势、产业和地区结构构成及收敛性。从演变趋势来看,与地区经济发展差距的演变趋势类似,中国对外贸易发展差距的演变基本上处于“U”字型走势之中;从地区结构来看,总体对外贸易发展差异主要是由地区间差异以及东部地区内部差异构成的;从产业结构来看,总体的对外贸易发展差异主要是由制成品贸易上的差异造成的。基于新古典经济理论的收敛性分析表明,总体来说,1978—2005年中国对外贸易发展存在β收敛,但是不存在σ收敛,同时还出现了一定程度的俱乐部收敛特征。
接下来,本文从总体影响和作用机制双重角度分析了对外贸易对中国地区经济增长差距的影响。综合已有的相关研究,本文对索洛模型作了进一步扩展,在MRW趋同检验方程的基础上增加对外贸易因素,采用趋同核算框架具体分析对外贸易对中国地区经济增长差距的总体影响。实证分析结论表明,从各因素对中国省份劳均GDPσ收敛和β收敛的影响来看,物质资本投资和对外贸易是导致中国省份经济发散的主要因素,而趋同效应和人力资本投资则是促进中国省份经济收敛的主要因素,即对外贸易扩大了中国的地区经济增长差距。
为了分析对外贸易影响中国地区经济增长差距的机制,本文从前沿生产函数入手,将产出增长分解为投入要素增加、技术进步和效率提升三个部分。进而指出由于各地区对外贸易发展存在差距,其对当地投入要素增加、技术进步和效率提升的作用差异必将对中国地区经济增长差距产生影响。据此,本文将对外贸易影响地区经济增长差距的机制归纳为三个,分别是:资本积累、技术溢出和制度变迁。并且,本文还分别从这三个机制的角度实证分析对外贸易对中国地区经济增长差距的影响。
从机制角度的实证分析表明,各地区对外贸易发展对资本积累、技术溢出和制度变迁机制的作用均存在较大差异。从资本积累角度来看,“对外贸易——资本积累——经济增长”机制在东部地区和中西部地区存在明显差异,东部地区对外贸易发展通过资本积累对经济增长的影响大于中西部地区对外贸易发展通过资本积累对地区经济增长的影响程度。从技术进步的角度来看,国际R&D溢出对不同地区的影响不同,进口贸易渠道的国际R&D溢出对东部地区的技术进步具有显著的促进作用,但对中西部地区的技术进步却有一定的负面影响。中西部地区未能分享到国际R&D溢出的正面效应,这进一步拉大了东部地区与中西部地区省份的经济增长差距。从制度变迁的角度来看,“对外贸易——制度变迁——经济增长”的作用机制,在不同地区表现不同。大多数东部地区,对外贸易发展通过促进制度变迁而加速了经济增长;而大多数中西部地区,对外贸易仅促进了制度变迁,但尚未对经济增长产生积极作用,或者对外贸易对制度变迁的作用不明显。从经济绩效来看,具备对外贸易通过促进制度变迁而加速经济增长因果关系的省份,经济绩效优于后者。因此,从作用机制角度的实证分析也表明,各地区对外贸易发展对资本积累、技术溢出和制度变迁机制的作用不同,从而扩大了中国的地区经济增长差距。
基于上述分析,本文最后提出了相应的政策建议,以期能够促进对外贸易增长与中国地区经济的协调发展。
China's regional economic growth disparity has received much attention. Previous studies focus on the evolution law, composition and underlying forces of the regional economic growth disparity. However the forgone studies mentioned much about some factors such as policies, geography position, capital investment, and etc, but paid little attention to foreign trade. There are not many studies on the theme of foreign trade and China's regional economic growth disparity, and they focus on the overall effect but the mechanism. China's fast economic growth in the recent twenty years relies heavily on the opening up, especially international trade. Along side with the imbalanced regional economic growth, regional trade development is uneven. In particular, there is much difference between the East and the Midwest with the respect of trade scale and trade mode. Furthermore, the expansion of Chinese regional economic growth disparity and the fast development of foreign trade are almost synchronous. This dissertation focuses on the present situation of Chinese regional foreign trade development difference and its influence to regional economic growth disparity. Based on the literature review, this dissertation extends the literature to the mechanism analysis and empirically examine of the impact of international trade on the regional economic growth disparity from both overall effect and mechanism.
This dissertation firstly analyzes the general trend of China's regional foreign trade disparity, as well as the industrial and regional structure and the convergence of China's regional foreign trade disparity. From the general trend of China's provincial foreign trade development difference, it is similar to the evolvement trend of regional economic growth disparity, which is U-type. From the aspect of region structure, the overall difference in international trade disparity results from the distribution difference among regions and the East disparity. From the aspect of industrial structure, the overall difference in international trade disparity results from the final manufacture. Convergence analysis shows that, on the whole, from 1978 to 2005, there isβ- convergence but notσ- convergence, and there is also some characteristics of club convergence.
The third section analyses the impact of international trade on the regional economic growth disparity from both overall effect and mechanism. Based on previous studies, this dissertation extends the Solow's model and adds the factor of international trade to the MRW convergence equation. Then this dissertation analyzes the impact of international trade on the regional economic growth disparity under the convergence framework. The results show that, from their influence to theσconvergence andβconvergence of GDP per worker, material capital and foreign trade are the main factors which cause Chinese regional economy divergence, while human capital are the main convergence factors. This means foreign trade enlarges China's regional economic growth disparity.
To analyze the mechanisms through which foreign trade influences China's regional economic growth disparity, this dissertation decomposes the output growth into factors increase, technical progress and efficiency advance according to Frontier Production Function. Due to the regional international trade disparity, this will have different impact on factors increase, technical progress and efficiency advance, which in turn affects the regional economic growth difference. Therefore, this dissertation summarizes the mechanisms through which international trade affects the regional economic growth difference as capital accumulation, technology spillover and institution innovation. And this dissertation further studies the effect of foreign trade on China's regional economic disparity by empirical evidence.
Empirical results show that the impact of foreign trade on regional capital accumulation, technology spillover and institution innovation between areas differs greatly. From the aspect of capital accumulation, the "foreign trade- capital accumulation - economic growth" mechanism is very different between the East and the Midwest. Through capital accumulation, foreign trade has much greater influence on economic growth in the Ease than in the Midwest. From the aspect of technology spillover, the influence of international R&D spillover varies among areas. International R&D spillover is beneficial to technical progress in the East, but has negative influence in the Midwest. The Midwest can't share the beneficial effect of international R&D spillover, which will unavoidably enlarge the regional economic growth disparity between the East and the Midwest. From the aspect of institution innovation, the "foreign trade- institution innovation - economic growth" mechanism varies among regions. In most East areas, the development of foreign trade promotes institution innovation, and then accelerates economic growth. While in most Central and West areas, foreign trade can only promote institution innovation and has no effect on economic growth, or its effect on institution innovation is not obvious. As to economic performance, provinces possessing the consequence of foreign trade development promoting institution innovation thus accelerating economic growth do better than the latter. Hence, empirical analysis from the three mechanisms also shows that the impact of foreign trade on capital accumulation, technology spillover and institution innovation differs greatly among areas, and this enlargers China's regional economic disparity.
Based on the above analysis, this dissertation provides some policy suggestions, which will promote China's foreign trade growth and coordinate the regional economic development.
引文
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