海南省水安全战略环境评价理论和方法研究
|
摘要
战略环境评价(SEA),是对法规、政策、规划、计划等战略决策层次进行的环境影响评价,是目前国内外环境学界为实现人与自然和谐而积极研究与实践的一个热点。战略环境评价作为制定改善生态环境政策制度的合理约束,能够有效地减少甚至消除政府战略缺陷对环境产生的不利影响。
水安全是生态安全的一个部分,同时也是社会、经济与环境系统安全的基础。区域水安全指的是某一区域水资源及与其相关的水环境能够满足人类社会、经济可持续发展与维持良好生态环境的需求,不受人为干预或自然事件如干旱等所威胁。区域水安全战略环境影响评价是以水安全为基准而进行的战略环评,对象包括区域政策、规划、计划等。
水安全战略环境评价的理论基础是可持续发展理论、环境承载力理论、环境系统工程理论、环境经济学理论。区域水安全战略环境评价方法是在对社会经济—水资源水环境耦合系统的层次分析的基础上,建立起来的以安全为基准的综合评价方法。本文采用系统动力学方法构建社会经济——水资源水环境耦合系统的动态模型,并用于进行现状水安全分析与中远期水安全预测分析。
对海南省水安全的现状分析结果表明,尽管海南省的水资源丰富,但从2001年以来水安全度有逐年下降的趋势,而同期全国和广东省的水安全度却稳步上升。进一步的分析表明海南省的水资源安全度明显受降水量和水资源总量的影响,而水环境安全度却逐年好转。这说明提高水资源开发利用率是海南确保水安全的重要途径之一。本文尝试对《海南省水资源综合规划》从水安全度的影响进行战略环境评价。评价的结论是:如果按照规划的方案,海南的社会经济系统、水环境质量系统在中远期都处于较安全状态,但水资源安全在中远期有下降的趋势。因此,水资源安全值得高度重视。经过对该规划方案、零方案、专门设计的四个备选替代方案进行环境影响识别和环境影响预测分析,认为采用综合考虑水资源开源、节流、控污和投资效益的设计方案为该规划的替代方案。同时提出减缓安全隐患的措施。
系统动力学模型可能不是最优化模型,但从实际的决策过程来看,利用系统动力学模型(用stella系统模型辅助)模拟出的各种决策方案的中长期影响效果,可以帮助我们得到较为满意的方案,比得出唯一的最优化方案更有现实意义。
Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) is employed to determine the environmental implications of strategic decisions, such as legislations, policies, plans and programmes. SEA can be used to assess a proposed legislation, policy, plan or programme that has already been developed; or it can be used to develop, evaluate and modify a legislation, policy, plan of programme during its formulation. The purpose of the application of SEA is to minimize or even eliminate negative environmental impacts from governmental strategic decision failure, therefore to achieve the goal of good man-nature harmony. This is why the relatively new and still evolving SEA could attract the interests of environmental academics and professionals as well as government authorities.
To be part of ecological security, water security is the foundation of safety of social, economic and environmental systems. Regional water security is defined as water resource and its related environment of a region that can meet the needs of human society, sustainable economic development and maintaining desirable environmental quality despite of any risk or threat from human intervention or natural events such as drought etc. To be more specific, SEA on regional water security assesses the impact of water security from regional policy, plans, or programmes.
The theoretical basis of regional water security SEA is the theories and principles of sustainable development, environmental carrying capacity, environmental systems engineering and environmental economics. The methodology adopted for regional water security SEA is an integrated approach with security as its criterion on the basis of hierarchical analysis of social, economic-water resource coupling system. System Dynamics is used to construct dynamic models of social economy-water resource, water environment coupling system, which then are employed in the status-quo analysis and medium and long-term prediction of water security of Hainan Province.
The status-quo analysis of water security in Hainan Province indicated that, although relatively abundant water resource is endowed, the water security tended to decrease year by year since 2001 in Hainan, while that of the whole country and of Guangdong Province improved steadily at the same period. Further analysis of the causes for the decrease revealed that the water security was obviously affected by precipitation and total water
水安全是生态安全的一个部分,同时也是社会、经济与环境系统安全的基础。区域水安全指的是某一区域水资源及与其相关的水环境能够满足人类社会、经济可持续发展与维持良好生态环境的需求,不受人为干预或自然事件如干旱等所威胁。区域水安全战略环境影响评价是以水安全为基准而进行的战略环评,对象包括区域政策、规划、计划等。
水安全战略环境评价的理论基础是可持续发展理论、环境承载力理论、环境系统工程理论、环境经济学理论。区域水安全战略环境评价方法是在对社会经济—水资源水环境耦合系统的层次分析的基础上,建立起来的以安全为基准的综合评价方法。本文采用系统动力学方法构建社会经济——水资源水环境耦合系统的动态模型,并用于进行现状水安全分析与中远期水安全预测分析。
对海南省水安全的现状分析结果表明,尽管海南省的水资源丰富,但从2001年以来水安全度有逐年下降的趋势,而同期全国和广东省的水安全度却稳步上升。进一步的分析表明海南省的水资源安全度明显受降水量和水资源总量的影响,而水环境安全度却逐年好转。这说明提高水资源开发利用率是海南确保水安全的重要途径之一。本文尝试对《海南省水资源综合规划》从水安全度的影响进行战略环境评价。评价的结论是:如果按照规划的方案,海南的社会经济系统、水环境质量系统在中远期都处于较安全状态,但水资源安全在中远期有下降的趋势。因此,水资源安全值得高度重视。经过对该规划方案、零方案、专门设计的四个备选替代方案进行环境影响识别和环境影响预测分析,认为采用综合考虑水资源开源、节流、控污和投资效益的设计方案为该规划的替代方案。同时提出减缓安全隐患的措施。
系统动力学模型可能不是最优化模型,但从实际的决策过程来看,利用系统动力学模型(用stella系统模型辅助)模拟出的各种决策方案的中长期影响效果,可以帮助我们得到较为满意的方案,比得出唯一的最优化方案更有现实意义。
Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) is employed to determine the environmental implications of strategic decisions, such as legislations, policies, plans and programmes. SEA can be used to assess a proposed legislation, policy, plan or programme that has already been developed; or it can be used to develop, evaluate and modify a legislation, policy, plan of programme during its formulation. The purpose of the application of SEA is to minimize or even eliminate negative environmental impacts from governmental strategic decision failure, therefore to achieve the goal of good man-nature harmony. This is why the relatively new and still evolving SEA could attract the interests of environmental academics and professionals as well as government authorities.
To be part of ecological security, water security is the foundation of safety of social, economic and environmental systems. Regional water security is defined as water resource and its related environment of a region that can meet the needs of human society, sustainable economic development and maintaining desirable environmental quality despite of any risk or threat from human intervention or natural events such as drought etc. To be more specific, SEA on regional water security assesses the impact of water security from regional policy, plans, or programmes.
The theoretical basis of regional water security SEA is the theories and principles of sustainable development, environmental carrying capacity, environmental systems engineering and environmental economics. The methodology adopted for regional water security SEA is an integrated approach with security as its criterion on the basis of hierarchical analysis of social, economic-water resource coupling system. System Dynamics is used to construct dynamic models of social economy-water resource, water environment coupling system, which then are employed in the status-quo analysis and medium and long-term prediction of water security of Hainan Province.
The status-quo analysis of water security in Hainan Province indicated that, although relatively abundant water resource is endowed, the water security tended to decrease year by year since 2001 in Hainan, while that of the whole country and of Guangdong Province improved steadily at the same period. Further analysis of the causes for the decrease revealed that the water security was obviously affected by precipitation and total water
引文
[1] 《中国 21 世纪议程》编制组. 中国 21 世纪议程----中国 21 世纪人口、环境与发展白皮书. 中国环境科学出版社 1994; http://www.gdepb.gov.cn/zwxx/hbzkgb/index.htm
[2] 包存宽,陆雍森,尚金城等.规划环境影响评价方法及实例.科学出版社.2004:167—371;
[3] 包存宽.实施战略环境评价的基本框架—以上海市为例.同济大学环境科学与工程学院博士后研究工作报告.2000;
[4] 陈成鲜,严广乐.我国水资源可持续发展系统动力学模型研究.上海理工大学学报.2000.22.(2):154- 159;
[5] 陈冲.绿色制造战略环境评价研究.东北师范大学硕士论文.2002;
[6] 陈绍金.对水安全系统预警的探讨.人民长江.2004.35.(9):30-32;
[7] 成建国.水安全监测与诊断咨询系统研究.中国水利水电院硕士论文.2003:61
[8] 方子云.参加斯德哥尔摩 2003 年国际水会议的人士与体会. 水电站设计 .2005.22.(3):3-4;
[9] 冯尚友.水资源持续利用管理理论.科学出版社.2000:220;
[10] 广东省环保局.2000 年-2004 年广东省环境质量公报.;
[11] 广东省水务局.2000 年-2004 年广东省水资源公报; http://www.gdsw.gov.cn/waterinfo/infodetail.do;jsessionid=aVMwkvTodPbf23hUjP?act=listCategory3&org=noneed&parentId=3&categoryId=10
[12] 广东省统计局.2000 年-2004 年广东省统计年鉴.广东出版社.2001-2005;
[13] 国家环境保护总局. 中华人民共和国环境影响评价法.国家环保总局. 2003;
[14] 国家环境保护总局.规划环境影响评价技术导则(试行)HJ/T130-2003. http://www.zhb.gov.cn/eic/650208300125716480/20031021/1042264.shtml
[15] 海南省国土资源厅.海南省生态现状调查.海南省国土资源厅.2002;
[16] 海南省环境科学研究院.1998 年-2004 年海南省水资源公报.海南省环境科学研究院.1999-2005;
[17] 海南省水利志编制组,海南省水利志.海南出版社 2004;
[18] 海南省水务局,中国水利水电研究设计院.海南省水资源综合规划.2005;
[19] 海南省水务局.1998 年-2004 年海南省水资源公报.海南省水务局.1997-2005;
[20] 海南省统计局.1998 年-2004 年海南省统计年鉴.海南出版社.1991-2005;
[21] 洪尚群,贺彬等.基于政策规律的战略环境评价.重庆环境科学,2002,24.(1):9-12;
[22] 洪阳.中国 21 世界水安全.中国环境科学出版社.1999 ;
[23] 胡波、王钊.日本防洪管理.中国农村水利水电.2005.4:12-13;
[24] 惠怏河、蒋晓辉等.二元模式下水资源承载力系统动态仿真模型研究.地理研究.2001.20.(2):191-198;
[25] 解振华.战略环境评价与可持续发展论坛致辞.第八届绿色中国论坛.2005
[26] 金菊良,魏一鸣,丁晶.水资源系统工程的理论框架探讨.系统工程理论与实践,2004.26.(1):28-30;
[27] 李明光,陈新庚,桑燕鸿.战略环境评价的实践进展和问题讨论.上海环境科学.2002.21.(6):365 -374;
[28] 李巍,杨志峰.重大经济政策环境影响评价初探—中国汽车产业政策环境影响评价.中国环境科学.2002.20.(2):114—118;
[29] 李学平.用层次分析法求指标权重的标度方法探讨.北京邮电大学学报(社会科学版),2001,3(1):25-27;
[30] 马蔚纯等.战略环境评价及其研究进展.环境科学,2000.9;
[31] 钱红玉,李余生,张怀国.用层次分析法评价自然资源利用率.科技进步与对策.2003,(增刊):84-85;
[32] 钱正英,张光斗.中国可持续发展战略研究.中国水利水电出版社,2001;
[33] 秦大河,张坤民,牛文元.中国人口资源环境与可持续发展.新华出版社,2002;
[34] 尚金城,包存宽,战略环境评价导论,科学出版社,2003:7—8;
[35] 申碧峰. 北京市宏观经济水资源系统动力学模型.北京水利,1995.(2):14- 16;
[36] 宋国涛等.中国国际环境问题报告.中国社会科学出版社.2000;
[37] 王华东,李巍,李贞等.区域战略环境影响评价研究—山西煤电并重战略分析.能源与环境.1997.14.(3):4—6;
[38] 吴季松.21 世纪水安全—海牙世界部长级会议宣言.中国水利.2000.32.(5):47-48;
[39] 吴 良 镛 , 牛 文 元 等 . 2001 - 2002 中 国 城 市 发 展 报 告 . www.chinacsw.com/xinwen/dyt4.htm.2002;
[40] 徐鹤,朱坦,戴树桂.战略环境评价的发展研究,上海环境.1999.18.(8):348—351;
[41] 杨桂山,于秀波,李恒鹏,高俊峰.流域综合管理导论.科学出版社.2004.10;
[42] 叶耀军,王首军,魏磊等.矩阵最大特征值的近似求法.河南农业大学学报.2001.35(9):69-71;
[43] 于书霞. 吉林省生态省建设土地利用政策评价.东北师范大学硕士论文.2001:33-42;
[44] 元相虎.吉林省生态省建设中的产业政策的 SEA.东北师范大学硕士论文.2001:11-34;
[45] 张凯,任丽军.山东省战略环境评价方法与应用研究.科学出版社 2005;
[46] 张妍.吉林省生态省发展战略环境影响评价研究.中科院东北地理与农业生态研究所博士学位论文.2003.31-82;
[47] 赵文晋.战略环境评价指标体系研究.吉林大学博士学位论文.2004.65-72;
[48] 浙江省及台州市环境保护局.台州化学原料药出口基地环境影响报告书.台州市环境保护局.2001;
[49] 中国工程院“西北水资源”项目组.西北地区水资源配置-生态环境建设和可持续发展战略研究项目综合报告.科学出版社.2003;
[50] 中国建设报.关键在开源节流治污. http://www.nsbd.gov.cn/zx/mtkt/20040221/200402210004.htm.2004.2
[51] 中国水利水电院.海南省水资源综合规划;
[52] 中华人民共和国水利部.1998-2004 年中国水资源公报.中国水利部.1999-2005;
[53] 中华人民共和国统计局.1998-2004 年中国统计年鉴.中国统计.1999-2005;
[54] 朱启贵著. 可持续发展评估.上海财经大学出版社. 1999;
[55] 左其亭. 可持续水资源管理的理论方法及应用研究.武汉水利电力大学博士论文,2000;
[56] Abstract Volume:The13th Stockholm water symposium. Stockholm International water institute 2003 .August .11-14
[57] Allan J A. Virtual water: The water, food, and trade nexus useful concept or misleading metaphors. Water International, 2003, 28 ,(1) 106- 112
[58] Allan J.A. Virtual water: a Strategic resource, global solutions to regional deficits.Ground Water, 1998,36: 545 一 546.
[59] Bram F.Noble.The Canadian Experience with SEA and Sustainability.Environmental Impact Assessment.2002,(22):3-16
[60] Clive Briffett,Jeffrey Philip Obbard,Jamie Mackee,Towards SEA for the Developing Countries in Asia.Environmental Impact Assessment Review,2003,(23):171-196
[61] Goran Finnveden,Mana Nilsson,Jessica Johansson.Stategic Environmental Assessment Methodologies-Application within the Engery Sector.Environmental Impact Assessment Review,2003,(23):91-123
[62] Hauk Von Seht.Requirements of a Comprehensive Strategic Environmental Assessment System.Landscape and Urban Planning,1999,(45):1-14
[63] Maria Rosario Partidario.Elements of an SEA Framework-Improving the Added Value of SEA.Environmental Impact Assessment Review,2000,(20):647-663
[64] Nathalie Risse,Michel Crowley,Philippe Vincke,et al.Implementing the European SEA Directive:the Member States’Margin of Discretion.Environmental Impact Assessment Review,2003,(23):453-470
[65] Partidario MR. Strategic Environmental Assessment –Principles and In:Petts J. editor. Handbook on Environmental Impact Assessment. Blackwell, London 1999
[66] Rosa Arce,Natalia Gullon.The Application of Strategic Environmental Assessment to Sustainability Assessment of Infrasturcture Development.Environmental Impact Assessment Review.2000,(20):393-402
[67] Simonovic S P. Assessment of Water Resources Through System Dynamics Simulation: Prom Global Issues to Regional Solution.In: Proceedings of the 36th International Conference on System Sciences Modeling Nonlinear Natural and human Systems, Abstract book CD-Rom full paper, 2003:93
[68] Simonovic S P. Global water dynamics: issues for the 21st century.Water Science& Technology, 2002, 45,(8):53- 64
[69] Therivel R. and Wilsen E. Strategic Environmental Assessment,Earthscan Publication Ltd. 1992
[70] Thoms B.Fischer.Comparative Analysis of Environmental and Socio-Economic Impact in SEA for Transported Related Policies,Plans and Programs.Environmental Impact Assessment Review,1999,(19):275-303
[71] Vahid alavian. SEA case study:Jordan Water Sector. http://info.worldbank.org/etools/docs/library/121407/m3_alavian.pdf
[72] Wichelns D. The role of “virtual water" in efforts to achieve food security and other national goals with examples from Egypt. Agricultural water management.2001. 49:131 一 151.
[2] 包存宽,陆雍森,尚金城等.规划环境影响评价方法及实例.科学出版社.2004:167—371;
[3] 包存宽.实施战略环境评价的基本框架—以上海市为例.同济大学环境科学与工程学院博士后研究工作报告.2000;
[4] 陈成鲜,严广乐.我国水资源可持续发展系统动力学模型研究.上海理工大学学报.2000.22.(2):154- 159;
[5] 陈冲.绿色制造战略环境评价研究.东北师范大学硕士论文.2002;
[6] 陈绍金.对水安全系统预警的探讨.人民长江.2004.35.(9):30-32;
[7] 成建国.水安全监测与诊断咨询系统研究.中国水利水电院硕士论文.2003:61
[8] 方子云.参加斯德哥尔摩 2003 年国际水会议的人士与体会. 水电站设计 .2005.22.(3):3-4;
[9] 冯尚友.水资源持续利用管理理论.科学出版社.2000:220;
[10] 广东省环保局.2000 年-2004 年广东省环境质量公报.;
[11] 广东省水务局.2000 年-2004 年广东省水资源公报; http://www.gdsw.gov.cn/waterinfo/infodetail.do;jsessionid=aVMwkvTodPbf23hUjP?act=listCategory3&org=noneed&parentId=3&categoryId=10
[12] 广东省统计局.2000 年-2004 年广东省统计年鉴.广东出版社.2001-2005;
[13] 国家环境保护总局. 中华人民共和国环境影响评价法.国家环保总局. 2003;
[14] 国家环境保护总局.规划环境影响评价技术导则(试行)HJ/T130-2003. http://www.zhb.gov.cn/eic/650208300125716480/20031021/1042264.shtml
[15] 海南省国土资源厅.海南省生态现状调查.海南省国土资源厅.2002;
[16] 海南省环境科学研究院.1998 年-2004 年海南省水资源公报.海南省环境科学研究院.1999-2005;
[17] 海南省水利志编制组,海南省水利志.海南出版社 2004;
[18] 海南省水务局,中国水利水电研究设计院.海南省水资源综合规划.2005;
[19] 海南省水务局.1998 年-2004 年海南省水资源公报.海南省水务局.1997-2005;
[20] 海南省统计局.1998 年-2004 年海南省统计年鉴.海南出版社.1991-2005;
[21] 洪尚群,贺彬等.基于政策规律的战略环境评价.重庆环境科学,2002,24.(1):9-12;
[22] 洪阳.中国 21 世界水安全.中国环境科学出版社.1999 ;
[23] 胡波、王钊.日本防洪管理.中国农村水利水电.2005.4:12-13;
[24] 惠怏河、蒋晓辉等.二元模式下水资源承载力系统动态仿真模型研究.地理研究.2001.20.(2):191-198;
[25] 解振华.战略环境评价与可持续发展论坛致辞.第八届绿色中国论坛.2005
[26] 金菊良,魏一鸣,丁晶.水资源系统工程的理论框架探讨.系统工程理论与实践,2004.26.(1):28-30;
[27] 李明光,陈新庚,桑燕鸿.战略环境评价的实践进展和问题讨论.上海环境科学.2002.21.(6):365 -374;
[28] 李巍,杨志峰.重大经济政策环境影响评价初探—中国汽车产业政策环境影响评价.中国环境科学.2002.20.(2):114—118;
[29] 李学平.用层次分析法求指标权重的标度方法探讨.北京邮电大学学报(社会科学版),2001,3(1):25-27;
[30] 马蔚纯等.战略环境评价及其研究进展.环境科学,2000.9;
[31] 钱红玉,李余生,张怀国.用层次分析法评价自然资源利用率.科技进步与对策.2003,(增刊):84-85;
[32] 钱正英,张光斗.中国可持续发展战略研究.中国水利水电出版社,2001;
[33] 秦大河,张坤民,牛文元.中国人口资源环境与可持续发展.新华出版社,2002;
[34] 尚金城,包存宽,战略环境评价导论,科学出版社,2003:7—8;
[35] 申碧峰. 北京市宏观经济水资源系统动力学模型.北京水利,1995.(2):14- 16;
[36] 宋国涛等.中国国际环境问题报告.中国社会科学出版社.2000;
[37] 王华东,李巍,李贞等.区域战略环境影响评价研究—山西煤电并重战略分析.能源与环境.1997.14.(3):4—6;
[38] 吴季松.21 世纪水安全—海牙世界部长级会议宣言.中国水利.2000.32.(5):47-48;
[39] 吴 良 镛 , 牛 文 元 等 . 2001 - 2002 中 国 城 市 发 展 报 告 . www.chinacsw.com/xinwen/dyt4.htm.2002;
[40] 徐鹤,朱坦,戴树桂.战略环境评价的发展研究,上海环境.1999.18.(8):348—351;
[41] 杨桂山,于秀波,李恒鹏,高俊峰.流域综合管理导论.科学出版社.2004.10;
[42] 叶耀军,王首军,魏磊等.矩阵最大特征值的近似求法.河南农业大学学报.2001.35(9):69-71;
[43] 于书霞. 吉林省生态省建设土地利用政策评价.东北师范大学硕士论文.2001:33-42;
[44] 元相虎.吉林省生态省建设中的产业政策的 SEA.东北师范大学硕士论文.2001:11-34;
[45] 张凯,任丽军.山东省战略环境评价方法与应用研究.科学出版社 2005;
[46] 张妍.吉林省生态省发展战略环境影响评价研究.中科院东北地理与农业生态研究所博士学位论文.2003.31-82;
[47] 赵文晋.战略环境评价指标体系研究.吉林大学博士学位论文.2004.65-72;
[48] 浙江省及台州市环境保护局.台州化学原料药出口基地环境影响报告书.台州市环境保护局.2001;
[49] 中国工程院“西北水资源”项目组.西北地区水资源配置-生态环境建设和可持续发展战略研究项目综合报告.科学出版社.2003;
[50] 中国建设报.关键在开源节流治污. http://www.nsbd.gov.cn/zx/mtkt/20040221/200402210004.htm.2004.2
[51] 中国水利水电院.海南省水资源综合规划;
[52] 中华人民共和国水利部.1998-2004 年中国水资源公报.中国水利部.1999-2005;
[53] 中华人民共和国统计局.1998-2004 年中国统计年鉴.中国统计.1999-2005;
[54] 朱启贵著. 可持续发展评估.上海财经大学出版社. 1999;
[55] 左其亭. 可持续水资源管理的理论方法及应用研究.武汉水利电力大学博士论文,2000;
[56] Abstract Volume:The13th Stockholm water symposium. Stockholm International water institute 2003 .August .11-14
[57] Allan J A. Virtual water: The water, food, and trade nexus useful concept or misleading metaphors. Water International, 2003, 28 ,(1) 106- 112
[58] Allan J.A. Virtual water: a Strategic resource, global solutions to regional deficits.Ground Water, 1998,36: 545 一 546.
[59] Bram F.Noble.The Canadian Experience with SEA and Sustainability.Environmental Impact Assessment.2002,(22):3-16
[60] Clive Briffett,Jeffrey Philip Obbard,Jamie Mackee,Towards SEA for the Developing Countries in Asia.Environmental Impact Assessment Review,2003,(23):171-196
[61] Goran Finnveden,Mana Nilsson,Jessica Johansson.Stategic Environmental Assessment Methodologies-Application within the Engery Sector.Environmental Impact Assessment Review,2003,(23):91-123
[62] Hauk Von Seht.Requirements of a Comprehensive Strategic Environmental Assessment System.Landscape and Urban Planning,1999,(45):1-14
[63] Maria Rosario Partidario.Elements of an SEA Framework-Improving the Added Value of SEA.Environmental Impact Assessment Review,2000,(20):647-663
[64] Nathalie Risse,Michel Crowley,Philippe Vincke,et al.Implementing the European SEA Directive:the Member States’Margin of Discretion.Environmental Impact Assessment Review,2003,(23):453-470
[65] Partidario MR. Strategic Environmental Assessment –Principles and In:Petts J. editor. Handbook on Environmental Impact Assessment. Blackwell, London 1999
[66] Rosa Arce,Natalia Gullon.The Application of Strategic Environmental Assessment to Sustainability Assessment of Infrasturcture Development.Environmental Impact Assessment Review.2000,(20):393-402
[67] Simonovic S P. Assessment of Water Resources Through System Dynamics Simulation: Prom Global Issues to Regional Solution.In: Proceedings of the 36th International Conference on System Sciences Modeling Nonlinear Natural and human Systems, Abstract book CD-Rom full paper, 2003:93
[68] Simonovic S P. Global water dynamics: issues for the 21st century.Water Science& Technology, 2002, 45,(8):53- 64
[69] Therivel R. and Wilsen E. Strategic Environmental Assessment,Earthscan Publication Ltd. 1992
[70] Thoms B.Fischer.Comparative Analysis of Environmental and Socio-Economic Impact in SEA for Transported Related Policies,Plans and Programs.Environmental Impact Assessment Review,1999,(19):275-303
[71] Vahid alavian. SEA case study:Jordan Water Sector. http://info.worldbank.org/etools/docs/library/121407/m3_alavian.pdf
[72] Wichelns D. The role of “virtual water" in efforts to achieve food security and other national goals with examples from Egypt. Agricultural water management.2001. 49:131 一 151.