论冷战后国内武装冲突和平解决的影响因素
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摘要
不同行为体之间的冲突与战争始终是人类社会面临的最大威胁。国际关系学自诞生以来,解决冲突与建设和平就是研究的核心议题。冷战之后,世界大战的危险基本消除,国内武装冲突成为威胁地区安全和世界安全的突出问题,因而寻求国内冲突的解决之道成为了国际关系学者关注的焦点。冲突解决的方式包括武力解决与和平解决两种,和平解决更有助于持久和平的实现,因此,研究冲突的和平解决更有意义。在研究国内冲突和平解决过程中,明确影响冲突解决的因素,才能够做到对症下药。本文所研究的问题就是冷战之后影响国内武装冲突和平解决的因素。
对于影响因素,本文从内部因素和外部因素两个方面作了分析,不仅关注影响因素的选取,更重要的是分析不同因素的作用机制。为了奠定一个基本的知识前提,本文首先对“国内武装冲突”和“冲突和平解决”的概念做了分析,并分析了冲突和平解决的可能性。同时还选取了冷战后终止的35场重大国内武装冲突作为样本,来验证本文后面提出的观点。
本文在总结已有研究的基础之上,归纳出了6个影响冲突和平解决的国内因素,即冲突伤亡人数、政府军队的规模、冲突的得失利害关系、冲突国政权的性质、冲突持续的时间和协议的签署。本文对前面两个因素进行了定性分析,后面四个因素做了定量分析。对于冲突伤亡人数这个变量,本文认为其与冲突和平解决之间存在着正相关性。对于政府军队规模这个变量,本文对学者现有的研究做了修正,不是政府军队规模,而是政府武装与反政府武装军事力量对比与冲突和平解决之间存在着负相关性。对于冲突的得失利害关系,本文从冲突类型和冲突性质两个方面做了分析,发现领土冲突比政权冲突更难以和平解决,包含认同因素的冲突比不包含的冲突更难以和平解决。对于冲突国政权的性质,学者的研究关注的多是政体与冲突和平解决之间的关系,本文增加了一个新的方面,即冲突国政权的发展状况;分析发现,二者与冲突和平解决之间并不存在相关性。对于冲突持续的时间与冲突和平解决之间的关系,本文赞成现有的研究,二者之间存在正相关性。对于协议的签署,学者现有的研究多关注于协议条款与冲突和平解决之间的关系。本文增加了一个新方面,即冲突派别,分析发现冲突派别的数量和素质与冲突和平解决之间都存在相关性。关于协议条款,本文认为包含有军事解决条款和权力分享条款的协议容易得到签署并能够持久履行。军事解决条款是指包含有军队一体化或者交战方解除武装内容的条款,权力分享条款在领土冲突是指包含有领土自治条款,在政权冲突中是指包含有进行大选或者选举改革条款。
影响冲突解决的外部因素主要是指第三方介入。分析发现,在冲突演进过程中,强制性介入可以有效地改变冲突方的行为,促成和谈。而在强制性方式中,对政府实施的经济制裁和(或)武器禁运更容易导致介入的成功。在冲突和平进程中,第三方的监督和保证可以对协议的签署和执行发挥重要的影响。
对于影响冲突和平解决因素分析的研究已有不少,但是学者的研究多止步于此。本文在此基础上做了进一步的分析,认为冲突解决是一个“系统效应”的过程,即不同因素对冲突解决结果产生着“纵向”影响;同时,不同因素之间也产生“横向”的影响,表现为一个变量的变化会影响到其它变量,一个变量的效用可能取决于存在着的其它变量。
尽管本文对影响冲突和平解决的因素及其作用机制做了分析,但是冲突和平解决是一个复杂的过程,还存在着诸多的不确定性,一方面,研究难以穷尽所有的影响因素,另一方面即便是存在着相同的影响因素,冲突结果也可能不尽相同。因此,本文并不是,而且事实上也不能够,归纳出一个可以和平解决冲突的模式。本文能做的就是通过理论解释和经验事实,分析清楚影响冲突和平解决的大概率因素的作用机制,以便在未来冲突解决中可以有所借鉴。
Conflicts and wars among different actors pose the biggest threat to international relations in human society. How to settle conflicts and build peace thus remains a core issue for researchers in international relations studies ever since it became a discipline. While a Third War is unlikely to take place, internal armed conflicts take the center stage, which endanger the security of the region as well as that of the world as a whole. Against that backdrop, researchers have focused on ways to settle such conflicts. There are two kinds of means to make armed conflicts resolved, that is, military victory and peaceful settlement. And peaceful settlement contributes to durable peace, which is worth doing more research. To do that, factors that have impact on the ultimate settlement of conflicts have to be determined. The author attempts to do just that in this dissertation.
For the elaboration of the issue, the author discusses not only the influencing factors (both internal and external) but also how the factors work. To facilitate research, the concepts of internal armed conflicts and peaceful settlement of conflicts are explained in the first place, then the author proposes the possibility of the peaceful settlement of conflicts. Meanwhile 35 major conflicts terminated after the Cold War are selected to test and verify the author’s viewpoint.
Based on the earlier studies, the author points out six internal factors for the peaceful settlement of conflicts --- casualties, size of government troops, the stakes of the conflict, nature of regime of the countries involved, duration of the conflict, and the portfolio for signed agreements.
For the first two variables, qualitative analysis is made and for the remaining four factors, quantitative analysis is applied. The author believes that casualties has positive correlation with peaceful settlement. The variable of size of government troops are expanded to size of government troops vs. size of rebel troops, which, in the author’s opinion, is negatively correlated to peaceful settlement. In terms of the stakes of the conflict, the author classifies them based on the types and natures of conflicts. It is found that conflicts for territory are more difficult to settle peacefully than conflicts for state, while conflicts with identity factors are more difficult than the otherwise. Nature of the countries in conflicts has been studied from the perspective of the relationship between regime and peaceful settlement of conflicts. The author, however, takes a step further to include the development situation of the state and finds out no correlation with peaceful settlement. The author supports the proposition that duration of conflicts is positively correlated to peaceful settlement. Based on the current focus on the relationship between terms of the agreement with peaceful settlement as to the portfolio for the signed agreements, the dissertation adds a new element --- reble in conflicts, the size and quality of which is found to have correlation with peaceful settlement. Agreements with terms regarding military settlement and power sharing are easier to be signed and stay effective for long. Military settlement refers to the integration of the army or disarmament of the parties in conflicts. Power sharing means territorial autonomy in conflicts for territory and general election and electoral reform in conflicts for state.
Intervention of the third party is considered as an external factor for the peaceful settlement of conflicts. It is found that coercive intervention such as government-enforced economic sanction and/or arms embargo can effectively deter conflicts and facilitate peace talks. It is thus concluded that the oversight and guarantee of the third party is crucial for the signing and implementation of peace agreements.
Much research has been done in the influencing factors for the peaceful settlement of conflicts, but the author believes that settlement of conflicts is a process of system effects, which involves the vertical impact of the factors on the settlement as well as the horizontal impact among factors.
Still, there are many uncertainties in the peaceful settlement of conflicts. On the one hand, research in this regard may not be inclusive; on the other, same factors can lead to different results. With that in mind, the author does not venture to propose one model for peaceful settlement of conflicts; instead the author intends to analyze the major influencing factors for the peaceful settlement of conflicts both in theory and in practice so as to be of some help for the settlement of future conflicts.
对于影响因素,本文从内部因素和外部因素两个方面作了分析,不仅关注影响因素的选取,更重要的是分析不同因素的作用机制。为了奠定一个基本的知识前提,本文首先对“国内武装冲突”和“冲突和平解决”的概念做了分析,并分析了冲突和平解决的可能性。同时还选取了冷战后终止的35场重大国内武装冲突作为样本,来验证本文后面提出的观点。
本文在总结已有研究的基础之上,归纳出了6个影响冲突和平解决的国内因素,即冲突伤亡人数、政府军队的规模、冲突的得失利害关系、冲突国政权的性质、冲突持续的时间和协议的签署。本文对前面两个因素进行了定性分析,后面四个因素做了定量分析。对于冲突伤亡人数这个变量,本文认为其与冲突和平解决之间存在着正相关性。对于政府军队规模这个变量,本文对学者现有的研究做了修正,不是政府军队规模,而是政府武装与反政府武装军事力量对比与冲突和平解决之间存在着负相关性。对于冲突的得失利害关系,本文从冲突类型和冲突性质两个方面做了分析,发现领土冲突比政权冲突更难以和平解决,包含认同因素的冲突比不包含的冲突更难以和平解决。对于冲突国政权的性质,学者的研究关注的多是政体与冲突和平解决之间的关系,本文增加了一个新的方面,即冲突国政权的发展状况;分析发现,二者与冲突和平解决之间并不存在相关性。对于冲突持续的时间与冲突和平解决之间的关系,本文赞成现有的研究,二者之间存在正相关性。对于协议的签署,学者现有的研究多关注于协议条款与冲突和平解决之间的关系。本文增加了一个新方面,即冲突派别,分析发现冲突派别的数量和素质与冲突和平解决之间都存在相关性。关于协议条款,本文认为包含有军事解决条款和权力分享条款的协议容易得到签署并能够持久履行。军事解决条款是指包含有军队一体化或者交战方解除武装内容的条款,权力分享条款在领土冲突是指包含有领土自治条款,在政权冲突中是指包含有进行大选或者选举改革条款。
影响冲突解决的外部因素主要是指第三方介入。分析发现,在冲突演进过程中,强制性介入可以有效地改变冲突方的行为,促成和谈。而在强制性方式中,对政府实施的经济制裁和(或)武器禁运更容易导致介入的成功。在冲突和平进程中,第三方的监督和保证可以对协议的签署和执行发挥重要的影响。
对于影响冲突和平解决因素分析的研究已有不少,但是学者的研究多止步于此。本文在此基础上做了进一步的分析,认为冲突解决是一个“系统效应”的过程,即不同因素对冲突解决结果产生着“纵向”影响;同时,不同因素之间也产生“横向”的影响,表现为一个变量的变化会影响到其它变量,一个变量的效用可能取决于存在着的其它变量。
尽管本文对影响冲突和平解决的因素及其作用机制做了分析,但是冲突和平解决是一个复杂的过程,还存在着诸多的不确定性,一方面,研究难以穷尽所有的影响因素,另一方面即便是存在着相同的影响因素,冲突结果也可能不尽相同。因此,本文并不是,而且事实上也不能够,归纳出一个可以和平解决冲突的模式。本文能做的就是通过理论解释和经验事实,分析清楚影响冲突和平解决的大概率因素的作用机制,以便在未来冲突解决中可以有所借鉴。
Conflicts and wars among different actors pose the biggest threat to international relations in human society. How to settle conflicts and build peace thus remains a core issue for researchers in international relations studies ever since it became a discipline. While a Third War is unlikely to take place, internal armed conflicts take the center stage, which endanger the security of the region as well as that of the world as a whole. Against that backdrop, researchers have focused on ways to settle such conflicts. There are two kinds of means to make armed conflicts resolved, that is, military victory and peaceful settlement. And peaceful settlement contributes to durable peace, which is worth doing more research. To do that, factors that have impact on the ultimate settlement of conflicts have to be determined. The author attempts to do just that in this dissertation.
For the elaboration of the issue, the author discusses not only the influencing factors (both internal and external) but also how the factors work. To facilitate research, the concepts of internal armed conflicts and peaceful settlement of conflicts are explained in the first place, then the author proposes the possibility of the peaceful settlement of conflicts. Meanwhile 35 major conflicts terminated after the Cold War are selected to test and verify the author’s viewpoint.
Based on the earlier studies, the author points out six internal factors for the peaceful settlement of conflicts --- casualties, size of government troops, the stakes of the conflict, nature of regime of the countries involved, duration of the conflict, and the portfolio for signed agreements.
For the first two variables, qualitative analysis is made and for the remaining four factors, quantitative analysis is applied. The author believes that casualties has positive correlation with peaceful settlement. The variable of size of government troops are expanded to size of government troops vs. size of rebel troops, which, in the author’s opinion, is negatively correlated to peaceful settlement. In terms of the stakes of the conflict, the author classifies them based on the types and natures of conflicts. It is found that conflicts for territory are more difficult to settle peacefully than conflicts for state, while conflicts with identity factors are more difficult than the otherwise. Nature of the countries in conflicts has been studied from the perspective of the relationship between regime and peaceful settlement of conflicts. The author, however, takes a step further to include the development situation of the state and finds out no correlation with peaceful settlement. The author supports the proposition that duration of conflicts is positively correlated to peaceful settlement. Based on the current focus on the relationship between terms of the agreement with peaceful settlement as to the portfolio for the signed agreements, the dissertation adds a new element --- reble in conflicts, the size and quality of which is found to have correlation with peaceful settlement. Agreements with terms regarding military settlement and power sharing are easier to be signed and stay effective for long. Military settlement refers to the integration of the army or disarmament of the parties in conflicts. Power sharing means territorial autonomy in conflicts for territory and general election and electoral reform in conflicts for state.
Intervention of the third party is considered as an external factor for the peaceful settlement of conflicts. It is found that coercive intervention such as government-enforced economic sanction and/or arms embargo can effectively deter conflicts and facilitate peace talks. It is thus concluded that the oversight and guarantee of the third party is crucial for the signing and implementation of peace agreements.
Much research has been done in the influencing factors for the peaceful settlement of conflicts, but the author believes that settlement of conflicts is a process of system effects, which involves the vertical impact of the factors on the settlement as well as the horizontal impact among factors.
Still, there are many uncertainties in the peaceful settlement of conflicts. On the one hand, research in this regard may not be inclusive; on the other, same factors can lead to different results. With that in mind, the author does not venture to propose one model for peaceful settlement of conflicts; instead the author intends to analyze the major influencing factors for the peaceful settlement of conflicts both in theory and in practice so as to be of some help for the settlement of future conflicts.
引文
①李少军著:《国际政治学概论》(第二版),第六章第三节,上海人民出版社2005年版。
②参考蒲宁、陈晓东著:《国际冲突研究》,北京:时事出版社2007年版,第65页。
③Karen Rasler,“Internationalized Civil War: A Dynamic Analysis of the Syrian Intervention in Lebanon,”Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 27, No. 3, (Sep., 1983), pp.421-456.
④当今对国内冲突的研究,较多的集中在产生原因方面。目前,对国内冲突产生原因的分析主要有三种观点:第一种观点认为冲突产生与国家的经济、政治、社会、地缘特征等因素有关;第二种观点认为贫困、人口过多、较低的经济发展水平、政治不稳等都增加了国家发生冲突的危险;第三种观点认为对自然资源的依赖、移民社群的存在、集中的人口、复杂的地形、国内合法政权的缺失都与国内冲突产生相关。
⑤Peter Wallensteen, Understanding Conflict Resolution: War, Peace and the Global System (Second Edition), London: Sage Publication Ltd., 2007; Stephen John Stedman, Donald Rothchild and Elizabeth M. Cousens, Ending Civil Wars: the Implementation of Peace Agreements, Published in the United States of America in 2002 by Lynne Rienner Publisher, Inc;Anna K. Jarstad & Timothy D. Sisk, From War to Democracy: Dilemmas to Peacebuilding, Cambridege University Press, 2008.
⑥熊玉祥著:《全球国家内部武装冲突》,北京:军事科学出版社2007年版。
①Roy Licklider,“How Civil Wars End: Questions and Methods,”in Roy Licklider ed., Stopping the Killing: How Civil Wars End, New York: New York University Press, 1993, pp.3-19.
②T. David Mason and Patrick J. Fett,“How Civil Wars End: A Rational Choice Approach,”The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.40, No.4, (Dec., 1996), pp.546-568.
①Caroline Hartzell, Matthew Hoddie and Donald Rothchild,“Stabilizing the Peace after Civil War: An Investigation of Some Key Variables,”International Organization, Vol.55, No.1, (Winter, 2001), pp.183-208. Frederic S. Pearson, Marie Olson Lounsbery, Scott Walker and Sonja Mann,“Rethinking Models of Civil War Settlement,”International Interactions, Vol.32, No.2, (Apr., 2006), pp.109–128.
②Caroline Hartzell, Matthew Hoddie and Donald Rothchild, ibid, pp.183-208; Frederic S. Pearson, Marie Olson Lounsbery, Scott Walker and Sonja Mann, ibid, pp.109–128.
①李少军著:《国际关系学研究方法》,北京:中国社会科学出版社2008年版,第166页。
①阎学通、孙学峰著:《国际关系研究实用方法》,北京:人民出版社2001版,第112页。
②阎学通、孙学峰著:前引书,第114页。
③李少军著:《国际关系学研究方法》,北京:中国社会科学出版社2008年版,第129—130页。
④李少军著:前引书,第99页。
⑤引自【美】詹姆斯·多尔蒂、小罗伯特·普法尔茨格拉夫著:《争论中的国际关系理论》,阎学通、陈寒溪等译,北京:世界知识出版社2003年版,第115页。
①王同亿主编:《现代汉语大辞典》,海口:海南出版社1992年版,第176页。
②【美】詹姆斯·多尔蒂、小罗伯特·普法尔茨格拉夫著:《争论中的国际关系理论》,阎学通、陈寒溪等译,北京:世界知识出版社2003年版,第200页。
③李学保:《西方国际冲突研究:视角、内涵与趋向》,《社会主义研究》,2008年第6期,第117页。
④【美】科塞(Coser.A.)著:《社会冲突的功能》,孙立平等译,北京:华夏出版社1989年版,第2页。
⑤胡平著:《国际冲突分析与危机管理研究》,北京:军事文艺出版社1993年版,第45页
①参考倪世雄等著:《当代西方国际关系理论》,上海:复旦大学出社版2001年版,第269—270页
②UCDP数据库的定义http://www.pcr.uu.se/research/UCDP/data_and_publications/definitions_all.htm
③斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所2007年的报告中提出了“跨国主义”(transnationalism)的概念,对跨国冲突概念的形成具有启示意义。
④参考乌普萨拉数据库, UCDP Non-State conflict Dataset, available at http://www.pcr.uu.se/research/UCDP/data_and_publications/datasets.htm.
⑤Ronald J. Glossop, Confronting War, Jefferson and London: Mcfarland, 1983, pp.7—8.转引自李少军著:《国际政治学概论》(第二版),上海人民出版社2005年版,第236页。
①Melvin Small and J. David Singer, Resort to Arms: International and Civil Wars, 1816-1980, Beverly Hills, CA: Sage, 1982, p.216.
②熊玉祥著:《冷战后全球国家内部武装冲突》,北京:军事科学出版社2007年,第7页。
③本文所关注的主要是冷战之后发生的国内武装冲突,为了研究的方便,合法政府以具有联合国合法席位的政府为准。截止2009年,联合国共有192个成员国,梵蒂冈被国际社会普遍承认,但是非联合国成员国。梵蒂冈并未发生武装冲突,因此本文冲突是指发生在联合国192个成员国内部的冲突。
④参考瑞典乌普萨拉大学冲突数据库,( Uppsala Conflict Data Program )对武装冲突的定义,http://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/datasets/definitions/
⑤Bruce Hoffman, Inside Terrorism, New York: Columbia University Press, 1998, p.41.
①斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所:《SIPRI年鉴2003年》,中国军控与裁军协会译,北京:世界知识出版社2004年,第99,104页。
②Nils Petter Gleditsch, Peter Wallensteen, Mikael Eriksson, Margareta Sollenberg and H?vard Strand,“Armed Conflict 1946–2001: A New Dataset,”Journal of Peace Research, Vol.39, No.5, (Sep., 2002), p.619.
③http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/nepal/database/majorattacks.htm
④朱文奇:《战争罪与武装冲突性质的关系问题》,《西安政治学院学报》,2003年第1期,第76页。
①熊玉祥著:《冷战后全球国家内部武装冲突》,北京:军事科学出版社2007年3月版,第8页。
②参考多伊奇在其名著《国际关系分析》中的划分。【美】卡尔·多伊奇(Karl W. Deutsch)著:《国际关系分析》,周启朋等译、吴宝璐、杜仲瀛校,北京:世界知识出版社1992年版,第173页。
③张骥、刘中民:《文化对冷战后国际政治的影响与跨世纪中国文化战略的构建》,《中国软科学》,1998年第3期,第120页。
④莱索托,百度百科: http://baike.baidu.com/view/22017.htm ;人民日报:《莱索托局势恶化》,http://web.peopledaily.com.cn/199809/24/col_980924001055_gjxw.html
①【美】科塞(Coser.A.)著:《社会冲突的功能》,孙立平等译,北京:华夏出版社1989年版,第136页。
②参考蒲宁、陈晓东著:《国际冲突研究》,北京:时事出版社2007年版,第265页。
③参考蒲宁、陈晓东著:前引书,第24页。
④熊玉祥著:《冷战后全球国家内部武装冲突》,北京:军事科学出版社2007年版,第41—57页。
⑤本文对不相容性的划分采用了瑞典乌普萨拉大学冲突数据库(UCDP)对冲突的划分标准。具体参见:http://www.pcr.uu.se/research/UCDP/data_and_publications/definitions_all.htm
①具体参见:http://www.pcr.uu.se/research/UCDP/data_and_publications/definitions_all.htm
②Halvard Buhaug,“Relative Capability and Rebel Objective in Civil War,”Journal of Peace Research, Vol.43, No.6, (Nov., 2006), p.693.
①Halvard Buhaug,“Relative Capability and Rebel Objective in Civil War,”Journal of Peace Research, Vol.43, No.6, (Nov., 2006), p.706.
②参见贾若瑜主编:《游击战》,北京:军事科学出版社1985年版,第31页。
③李少军著:《国际政治学概论》(第二版),上海人民出版社2005年版,第434页。
①李乐:《从民族、民族主义的概念解析民族分离主义》,《黑龙江民族丛刊》,2008年第4期,第58页。
②徐蓝:《关于民族主义的若干历史思考》,《史学理论研究》,1997年第3期,第20页。
③Stephen Van Evera,“Hypotheses on Nationalism and War,”International Security, Vol.18, No. 4, (Spring 1994),转引自李少军著:《国际政治学概论》(第二版),上海人民出版社2005年版,第478页。
④朱伦:《“跨界民族”辨析与“现代泛民族主义”问题》,《世界民族》,1999年第1期,第15-16页。
⑤这里的民族是指历史上形成的具有共同血缘关系、共同心理情感和人群共同体,亦即ethnic意义上的民族,参考张友国:《亚文化、民族认同与民族分离主义》,《西南大学学报》,2007年第4期,第181页。
①陈衍德、彭慧、高金明、王黎明著:《全球化进程中的东南亚民族问题研究》,厦门大学出版社2008年,第89页。
②杨勉:《当代世界的民族分离主义》,《现代国际关系》,2000年第8期,第21页。
③王志平主编:《硝烟中的沉思:当代世界武装冲突中的民族宗教问题研究》,北京:中国社会科学出版社2003年版,第41页。
④邓浩:《当前世界民族问题发展的基本态势及其走向》,《国际问题研究》,2000年第4期,第42页。
①J. Moore,“Towards an Applied Theory for the Regulation of Intervention,”in Hugh Miall, Oliver Ramsbotham and Tom Woodhouse, Contemporary Conflict Resolution, Cambridge: Cambridge Polity Press, 2000, p.71.
②Mark R. Amstutz, International Conflict and Cooperation: An Introduction to World Politics, Boston:McGrawHill College, 1999, pp.255-261.
①引自Lotta Harbom and Peter Wallensteen,“Armed Conflicts, 1946–2008,”Journal of Peace Research, Vol.46, No.4, (Jul., 2009), p.578.
②熊玉祥著:《冷战后全球国家内部武装冲突》,北京:军事科学出版社2007年版,第21页。
③加拿大犁铧项目网站http://www.ploughshares.ca/libraries/ACRText/ACR-TitlePage.html
①参考熊玉祥著:《冷战后全球国家内部武装冲突》,北京:军事科学出版社2007年版,第36—37页。
②【美】理查德·N·哈斯著:《新干涉主义》,北京:新华出版社2000版,第116页。
③伯顿提出了“外溢效应”的观点,他认为国际层次的冲突是一些国内机构或个人问题外溢而形成的。参见【澳】约翰·W·伯顿著:《全球冲突:国际危机的国内根源》,北京:中国人民公安大学出版社1991年版,第118页。
①蒲宁、陈晓东著:《国际冲突研究》,北京:时事出版社2007年版,第38页。
②李继东著:《现代化的延误—对独立后“非洲病”的初步分析》,北京:中国经济出版社1997年版,第49页。
③【美】杰克·普拉诺等著:《政治学分析词典》,北京:中国社会科学出版社1986年版。
④Harald Müller,“The Internalization of Principles, Norms, and Rules by Governments: The Case of Security Regimes,”in Volker Rittberger and Peter Mayer, eds., Theories of International Regimes, New York: CambridgeUniversity Press, 1997, p.361.
①是指从巴尔干半岛经中东、克什米尔地区、喜马拉雅山南麓直到东南亚的一条斜贯欧亚大陆南部的地带。这一地带民族众多,各种宗教、教派纷繁复杂,同时这一地带国家林立,且各国大小不同、强弱迥异、贫富悬殊。
②Timothy D. Sisk, International Mediation in Civil Wars: Bargaining with Bullets, New York: Routledge, 2009, p.33.
③转引自T. David Mason and Patrick J. Fett,“How Civil Wars End: A Rational Choice Approach,”the Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.40, No.4, (Dec., 1996), pp.546-568.
④联合国新闻:“环境署:利比里亚内战严重破坏了自然环境”,
①Siyan Chen, Norman V. Loayza和Marta Reynal-Querol,转引自《内战的后果》,邹恒甫、郝睿编:《非洲冲突研究》,北京:人民日报出版社2010版,第65页。
②《1951年联合国难民公约》,见联合国难民署:《2000年世界难民状况》,牛津大学出版社2000年版,第23页,转引自少军著:《国际政治学概论》(第二版),上海人民出版社2005年版,第542页。
③联合国难民署1996年5月数字,见联合国难民署:《2000年世界难民状况》,牛津大学出版社2000版,第185页,转引自李少军著:《国际政治学概论》(第二版),上海人民出版社2005年版,第546页。
④卜建华:《当代民族分离主义兴起的原因探析》,《山东省青年管理干部学院学报》,2008年第6期,第131页。
①Herbert C. Kelman, Forword, in Dennis J.D. Sandole& Hugo Van der Merwe eds., Conflict Resolution Theory and Practice: Integration and Application, Manchester University Press 1993.
②John W. Burton,“Conflict Resolution as a Political Philosophy,”in Dennis J.D. Sandole& Hugo Van der Merwe eds., Conflict Resolution Theory and Practice: Integration and Application, Manchester University Press 1993, p.60.
③Peter Wallensteen, Understanding Conflict Resolution: War, Peace and the Global System (Second Edition), London: Sage Publication Ltd., 2007, p.47.
④蒲宁、陈晓东著:《国际冲突研究》,北京:时事出版社2007年版,第65页。
①Joakim Kreutz, (2006),“How Armed Conflicts End,”Unpublished manuscript.
②T. David Mason and Patrick J. Fett,“How Civil Wars End: A Rational Choice Approach,”The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.40, No.4, (Dec., 1996), pp.546-568.
③Karl R. DeRouen Jr and David Sobek,“The Dynamics of Civil War Duration and Outcome,”Journal of Peace Research, Vol.41, No.3, (May, 2004), pp.303-320.
④原文是在分析国际冲突的可能结局,本文认为这对国内冲突的结局也是同样适用的。
①参考胡平著:《国际冲突分析与危机管理研究》,北京:军事文艺出版社1993年版,第99页。
②UCDP数据库的冲突终止的分类方法,Joakim Kreutz, (2006),“How Armed Conflicts End,”Unpublished manuscript.
③新华网:中国政府对安哥拉问题的立场,http://news.xinhuanet.com/ziliao/2003-01/20/content_697435.htm
④人民网:http://www.people.com.cn/GB/historic/0410/1154.html
①James D. D. Smith, Stopping Wars: Defining the Obstacles to Cease-fire, Boulder: Westview Press, 1995, p.266.
②Charles W. Kegley, Jr.Gregory A. Raymond, From War to Peace: Fateful Decisions in International Politics,世界政治与国际关系原版影印丛书,北京大学出版社2003年版,第12页。
③李益波:《印度东北地区部族分离主义运动探析》,《世界民族》,2007年第3期,第36页。
①Kenneth J. Gergen and Kurt W. Back,“Aging, Time Perspective, and Preferred Solutions to International Conflicts,”The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 9, No. 2, (Jun., 1965), pp.177-186.
②转引自Charles W. Kegley, Jr.Gregory A. Raymond, From War to Peace: Fateful Decisions in International Politics,世界政治与国际关系原版影印丛书,北京大学出版社2003年版,第14页。
①Peter Wallensteen, Understanding Conflict Resolution: War, Peace and the Global System (Second Edition), London: Sage Publication Ltd., 2007, p.28.
②Karl R. DeRouen Jr and David Sobek,“The Dynamics of Civil War Duration and Outcome,”Journal of Peace Research, Vol.41, No.3, (May, 2004), p.303.
③Roy Licklider,“How Civil Wars End: Questions and Methods,”in Roy Licklider ed., Stopping the Killing: How Civil Wars End, New York: New York University Press, 1993, p.4.
④Paul R. Pillar, Negotiating Peace: WarTtermination as a Bargaining Process, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1983, p.24.
⑤Darren Filson and Suzanne Werner,“A Bargaining Model of War and Peace: Anticipating the Onset, Duration, and Outcome of War,”Claremont Colleges, Working Paper 2001-2002.
①参考Charles W. Kegley, Jr. Gregory A. Raymond, From War to Peace: Fateful Decisions in International Politics,世界政治与国际关系原版影印丛书,北京大学出版社2003年版,第13页。
②C. Barnes A. Griffiths,“Influencing Resolution: External Roles Changing the Strategic Calculus of Conflict,”in Accord Issue 19, Power of Persuasion: Incentives, Sanctions and Conditionality in Peacemaking, Conciliation Resources, 2008. at http://www.c-r.org/our-work/accord/ incentives/ influencing-resolution.php转引自Ryan Gawn,“Arms to Agreement: Northern Ireland’s Move from War to Peace,”Strategic Analysis, Vol.33, No.4, (Jul., 2009) pp.516-527.
③【美】大卫·巴拉什、查尔斯·韦伯著:《积极和平——和平与冲突研究》,刘成等译,南京出版社2007年版,第258页。
④Christine Bell,“Peace Agreements: Their Nature and Legal Status,”The American Journal of International Law, Vol.100, No.2, (Apr., 2006), pp.373-412.
①Michaela Mattes and Burcu Savun,“Fostering Peace after Civil War: Commitment Problem and Agreement Design,”International Security Quarterly, Vol.53, No.3, (Sep., 2009), p.739.
②【美】詹姆斯·多尔蒂和小罗伯特·普法尔茨格拉夫著:《争论中的国际关系理论》,邵文光译,北京:世界知识出版社1987年版,第200页。
③蒲宁、陈晓东著:《国际冲突研究》,北京:时事出版社2007年版,第17页。
①中国社会科学院语言研究所词典编辑室编:《现代汉语词典》,北京:商务印书馆2005年版,第676页。
②《朗文当代高级英语词典》,北京:外语教学与研究出版社2004版,第1939页。
①Moorad Mooradian and Daniel Druckman,“Hurting Stalemate or Mediation? The Conflict over Nagorno -Karabakh, 1990-95,”Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 36, No. 6, (Nov., 1999), p.713.
②【美】科尔曼著:《社会理论的基础》,邓方译,北京:社会科学文献出版社1990年版,第22–23页。
③陈宏:《博弈论与战略互动》,《外交评论》,2007年第4期,第100页。
④William Zartman,“The Timing of Peace Initiatives: Hurting Stalemates and Ripe Moments,”The Global Review of Ethno politics, Vol.1, No.1, (Sep., 2001), p.8.
①Donald Wittman,“How a War Ends: A Rational Model Approach,”The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 23, No. 4, (Dec., 1979), pp.743-763.
②可以参考Moorad Mooradian and Daniel Druckman,“Hurting Stalemate or Mediation? The Conflict over Nagorno- Karabakh, 1990-95,”Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 36, No. 6 (Nov., 1999), pp.709-727; Roy Licklider,“Civil War Outcomes,”Saltzman Working Paper No. 11, (Nov., 2009), http://www.siwps.com/programs/SWP.attachment/no-11--/No%2011%20-%20Licklider.pdf; Janice Gross Stein,“Getting to the Table: The Triggers, Stages, Functions, and Consequences of Prenegotiation,”International Journal, Vol. 44, No. 2, Getting to the Table: Process of International Prenegotiation (Spring, 1989), pp. 475-504; Philip A. Schrodt, ?mür Yilmaz, and Deborah J. Gerner,“Evaluating‘Ripeness’and‘Hurting Stalemate’in Mediated International Conflicts:An Event Data Study of the Middle East, Balkans and West Africa,”Paper prepared for delivery at the Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association, Portland, Oregon, USA, (Feb., 2003), http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.15.7130&rep=rep1&type=pdf等文章。
③胡平著:《国际冲突分析与危机管理研究》,北京:军事文艺出版社1993年版,第77页。
④Moorad Mooradian and Daniel Druckman,“Hurting Stalemate or Mediation? The Conflict over Nagorno -Karabakh, 1990-95,”Journal of Peace Research, Vol.36, No.6 (Nov., 1999), p.712.
⑤William Zartman,“Ripeness: The Hurting Stalemate and Beyond,”in Paul C. Stern and Daniel Druckman eds., International Conflict Resolution After the Cold War, Washington D.C.:National Academy Press, 2000, p.228.
①转引自【英】R. P.巴斯顿著:《现代外交》,赵怀普等译,北京:世界知识出版社2002年版,第102页。
②鲁毅等著:《外交学概论》,北京:世界知识出版社2000年版,第173页。
③文婕:《国际谈判过程理论初探》,《贵州师范大学学报(社会科学版)》,2004年第5期。上面谈判的观点是作者在分析国际谈判的特点时候提出来的,本文认为这些观点同样适用于国内武装冲突解决中的和平谈判。
①James D. Fearon,“Bargaining, Enforcement, and International Cooperation,”International Organization, Vol.52, No.2, (Spring, 1998), p.274.
②陈宏:《博弈论与战略互动》,《外交评论》,2007年第4期,第100页。
③在下列文章中,在对影响冲突解决因素的进行分析,案例的选取多从二战之后开始。详见Caroline Hartzell, Matthew Hoddie and Donald Rothchild,“Stabilizing the Peace after Civil War: An Investigation of Some Key Variables,”International Organization, Vol.55, No.1, (Winter, 2001), pp.183-208; Frederic S. Pearson, Marie Olson Lounsbery, Scott Walker and Sonja Mann,“Rethinking Models of Civil War Settlement,”International Interactions, Vol.32, No.2, (Apr., 2006), pp.109–128; T. David Mason and Patrick J. Fett,“How Civil Wars End: A Rational Choice Approach,”The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.40, No.4, (Dec., 1996), pp.546-568; Roy Licklider,“Civil War Outcomes,”Saltzman Working Paper, No.11, (Nov., 2009), http://www.siwps.com/programs/SWP.attachment/no-11--/No%2011%20-%20Licklider.pdf.
①伊斯兰的武装组织数量众多,比较著名的有伊斯兰武装运动、争取伊斯兰国家运动、伊斯兰武装组织(集团)、武装圣战伊斯兰阵线、伊斯兰拯救军、伊斯兰圣战和宣教协会、塞莱菲耶宣教和战斗组织等。
②涂龙德:《阿尔及利亚原教旨主义组织研究》,《阿拉伯世界研究》,2008年第3期,第44页。
③搜搜百科:http://baike.soso.com/v7960628.htm
④百度百科:http://baike.baidu.com/view/431885.htm
①【日】入江昭著:《20世纪的战争与和平》,李静阁等译,北京:世界知识出版社2005年版,第4页。
②Roy Licklider,“How Civil Wars End: Questions and Methods,”in Roy Licklider ed., Stopping the Killing: How Civil Wars End, New York: New York University Press, 1993, pp.3-19.
③T. David Mason and Patrick J. Fett,“How Civil Wars End: A Rational Choice Approach,”The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.40, No.4, (Dec., 1996), pp.546-568.
④Caroline Hartzell, Matthew Hoddie and Donald Rothchild,“Stabilizing the Peace after Civil War: An Investigation of Some Key Variables,”International Organization, Vol.55, No.1, (Winter, 2001), pp.183-208.
⑤Frank L. Klingberg,“Predicting the Termination of War: Battle Casualties and Population Losses,”The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.10, No.2, (Jun., 1966), pp.129-171.
①T. David Mason and Patrick J. Fett,“How Civil Wars End: A Rational Choice Approach,”The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.40, No.4, (Dec., 1996), pp.546-568.
②William Zartman,“The Unfinished Agenda: Negotiating Internal Conficts,”in Roy Licklider ed., Stopping the Killing: How Civil Wars End, New York: New York University Press, 1993, pp.20-36.
③T. David Mason and Patrick J. Fett, ibid, pp.546-568.
①Fred C. Ikle, Every War Must End, New York: Columbia University Press, 1971, p.95.
②T. David Mason and Patrick J. Fett,“How Civil Wars End: A Rational Choice Approach,”The Journal ofConflict Resolution, Vol.40, No.4, (Dec., 1996), pp.546-568.
①参见James D. Fearon,“Rationalist Explanations for War,”International Organization, Vol.49, No.3, (Summer, 1995), pp.379-414.
②T. David Mason, Patrick J. Fett,“How Civil Wars End: A Rational Choice Approach,”the Journal of Conflict Resolution, (Dec., 1996), Vol.40, No.4, p.555.
①Roy Licklider,“How Civil Wars End: Questions and Methods,”in Roy Licklider ed., Stopping the Killing: How Civil Wars End, New York: New York University Press, 1993, pp.3-19.
②Caroline Hartzell, Matthew Hoddie and Donald Rothchild,“Stabilizing the Peace after Civil War: An Investigation of Some Key Variables,”International Organization, Vol.55, No.1, (Winter, 2001), pp.183-208.
①【英】戴维·米勒、韦农·波格丹诺主编:《布莱克维尔政治学百科全书》,邓正莱等译,北京:中国政法大学出版社1992年版,第345页。
②【法】莫里斯·迪韦尔热著:《政治社会学》,杨祖功译,北京:华夏出版社1987年版,第9页。
③【美】丹尼尔·贝尔著:《意识形态的终结》,张国清译,南京:江苏人民出版社2001年版,第506页。
④【俄】B.M.库拉金著:《国际安全》,纽菊生、雷晓菊译,武汉大学出版社2009年版,第120页。
⑤人民网:“哥伦比亚游击队要求巴西新总统调解冲突”,http://news.sina.com.cn/w/2010-11-16/163221481293.shtml
①张友国:《亚文化、民族认同与民族分离主义》,《西南大学学报》,2007年第4期,第181页。
②参见【美】塞缪尔·亨廷顿著:《我们是谁?美国国家特性面临的挑战》,程克雄译,北京:新华出版社2005年版。
①国家宗教事务局宗教研究中心编写:《当代世界宗教问题》,北京:宗教文化出版社2007年版,第1页。
②国家宗教事务局宗教研究中心编写:前引书,第38页。
③《马克思恩格斯选集》(第2版),第3卷,北京:人民出版社1995年版,第666—667页。
④刘中民:《论宗教对国际政治的影响》,《欧洲》,1996年第5期,第20页。
①约翰·康韦尔:《原教旨主义:野蛮的救世主》,英国《星期日泰晤士报》,2001年11月25日。
②百度百科:http://baike.baidu.com/view/203471.htm
③K. R. Darked., Region and International Relations, Macmillan Press LTD, 2000, pp.14-15.
①倪世雄等著:《当代西方国际关系理论》,上海:复旦大学出版社2001年版,第451页。
②Halvard Buhaug,“Relative Capability and Rebel Objective in Civil War,”Journal of Peace Research, Vol.43, No.6, (Nov., 2006), pp. 691-708.
③Gil Merom, How Democracies Lose Small Wars: State, Society, and the Failures of France in Algeria, Israel in Lebanon, and the United States in Vietnam, New York: Cambridge University Press, 2003.
④Michael C. Desch,“Democracy and Victory: Why Regime Type Hardly Matters,”International Security, Vol. 27, No. 2, (Fall, 2002), pp.5-47,转引自杨少华博士论文,《当代不对称冲突研究》,中国社科院研究院,2008。
①Caroline Hartzell, Matthew Hoddie and Donald Rothchild,“Stabilizing the Peace after Civil War: An Investigation of Some Key Variables,”International Organization, Vol.55, No.1, (Winter, 2001), pp.183-208.
①本文研究冷战之后的冲突,这里没有界定为受到20世纪90年代民主化浪潮的影响,是因为冷战之后的许多冲突是由冷战时期延续下来的,而这些冲突的产生有一部分受到20世纪60、70年代民主化浪潮的影响。
②参考贺文萍著:《非洲国家:民主化进程研究》,北京:时事出版社2005年版,第二章。
③何跃:《对转型国家多冲突的理论分析》,《云南行政学院学报》,2003年第6期,第84页。
④Edward D. Mansfield and Jack Snyder,“Democratization and the Danger of War,”International Security, Vol.20,
①Karl R. DeRouen Jr and David Sobek,“The Dynamics of Civil War Duration and Outcome,”Journal of Peace Research, Vol.41, No.3, (May, 2004), pp.303-320.
②William Zartman,“The Unfinished Agenda: Negotiating Internal Conficts,”in Roy Licklider ed., Stopping the Killing: How Civil Wars End, New York: New York University Press, 1993, pp.20-36.
③Bennett, D. Scott & Alan C. Stam III, 1996.“The Duration of Interstate Wars, 1816-1985,”American Political Science Review 90(2): 239-257.转引自Paul Collier, Anke Hoeffler and M?ns S?derbom,“On the Duration of Civil War,”Journal of Peace Research, Vol.41, No.3, (May, 2004), p.253.
④T. David Mason and Patrick J. Fett,“How Civil Wars End: A Rational Choice Approach,”The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.40, No.4, (Dec., 1996), pp.546-568.
①Roy Licklider,“How Civil Wars End: Questions and Methods,”in Roy Licklider ed., Stopping the Killing: How Civil Wars End, New York: New York University Press, 1993, pp.3-19.
②Dsirée Nilsson,“Partial Peace: Rebel Groups Inside and Outside of Civil War Settlements,”Journal of Peace Research, Vol.45, No.4, (Jul.,2008), pp.479–495.
③David E. Cunningham,“Veto Players and Civil War Duration,”American Journal of Political Science, Vol.50, No.4, (Oct., 2006), pp.875-892.
①Sue Williams and Robert Ricigliano,“Choosing to Engage: Armed Group and Peace Process,”Understanding Armed Conflicts, Accord 2005, Issue 16, pp.16-17.
①Christine Bell,“Peace Agreements: Their Nature and Legal Status,”The American Journal of International Law,Vol.100, No.2, (Apr., 2006), pp.373-412.
①Lotta Harbom and Peter Wallensteen,“Armed Conflict and Its International Dimensions, 1946-2004,”Journal of Peace Research, Vol.42, No.5, (Sep., 2005), pp.623-735.
②Michaela Mattes and Burcu Savun,“Fostering Peace after Civil War: Commitment Problem and Agreement Design,”International Security Quarterly, Vol.53, No.3, (Sep., 2009), p.738.
③Caroline Hartzell, Matthew Hoddie and Donald Rothchild,“Stabilizing the Peace after Civil War: An Investigation of Some Key Variables,”International Organization, Vol.55, No.1, (Winter, 2001), pp.183-208.
①参考中国社科院西亚非研究所莫桑比克概况,http://iwaas.cass.cn/gjgk/feizhou/2009-06-01/688.shtml
②关凯:《多元文化主义与民族区域自治——民族政策国际经验分析(下)》,《西北民族研究》,2004年第2期,第46页。
③列宁著:《列宁全集》(第25卷),北京:人民出版社1988年版,第73页。
①胡平著:《国际冲突分析与危机管理研究》,北京:军事文艺出版社1993年版,第111页。
②中国社会科学院语言研究所编辑室编:《现代汉语词典》,北京:商务印书馆2005年版,第702页。
③漆海霞:《国际斡旋的成败分析》,《国际政治科学》,2005年第4期,第24—51页。
④Jacob Bercocitch,“The Structure and Diversity of Mediation in International Relations,”in Jacob Bercocitch and Jeffrey Z. Rubin, ed., Mediation in International Relations: Multiple Approach to Conflict, New York, St. Martin’s Press, 1992, pp.4-5.
①许祥文:《现代国际武装冲突的社会学视角》,《南京政治学院学报》,2000年第4期,第81页。
②【俄】B.M.库拉金著:《国际安全》,纽菊生、雷晓菊译,武汉大学出版社2009年版,第272页。
③万书:《试论经济制裁》,《世界经济与政治》,2004年第9期,第27页。
④参考阮建平著:《战后美国对外经济制裁》,武汉大学出版社2009年版,第153-172页。
⑤Damien Fruchart, Paul Holtom and Siemon T. Wezeman, Daniel Strandow and Peter Wallensteen,“United Nations Arms Embargoes: their Impact on Arms Flows and Target Behavior,”SIPRI Report, http://books.sipri.org/files/misc/UNAE/SIPRI07UNAE.pdf.
①Damien Fruchart, Paul Holtom and Siemon T. Wezeman, Daniel Strandow and Peter Wallensteen, United Nations Arms Embargoes: their Impact on Arms Flows and Target Behavior, SIPRI Report, http://books.sipri.org/files/misc/UNAE/SIPRI07UNAE.pdf.
②中国日报网:《联合国可能取消对南联盟武器禁运和对苏丹制裁》,http://news.sina.com.cn/w/2001-09-06/349853.html
③秦亚青著:《霸权体系与国际冲突:美国在国际武装冲突中的支持行为(1945—1988)》,上海人民出版社2008年版,第125页。
④李东燕编著:《列国志:联合国》,北京:社会科学文献出版社2005年版,第193页。
①百度百科:http://baike.baidu.com/view/746405.htm
②See Kofi Annan,“Two Concepts of Sovereignty,”and Kofi Annan,“Human Right and Humanitarian Intervention in the Twenty-First Century,”转引自魏宗雷、邱桂荣、孙茹著:《西方“人道主义干预”理论与实践》,北京:时事出版社2003年版,第70页。
③Jane E. Holl,“When War Doesn't Work: Understanding the Relationship Between the Battlefield and the Negotiating Table,”in Roy Licklider ed., Stop the killing: How civil wars end, New York: New York University Press, 1993, p.286.
④Robert Cooper and Mats Berdal,“Outside Interventions in Ethnic Conflicts,”Survival,(Spring, 1993), Vol.35, No.1, pp.118-142.
①Edward N. Luttwak,“Give War a Chance,”Foreign Affairs, Vol.78, No.4, (Jul.-Aug.,1999), pp.36-44.
②汪丽萍:《国际干预及其对国家主权的挑战》,《国际观察》,1998年第1期,第17页。
③具体内容可以参考:Patrick M. Regan,“Third-Party Intervention and the Duration of Interstate Conflicts,”The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.46, No.1, Understanding Civil War, (Feb., 2002), pp.55-73; Patrick M. Regan,“Conditions of Successful Third Party Intervention in Intra-State Conflicts,”The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.40, No.1, (Jun., 1996), pp.336–359; Patrick Johnston,“Negotiated Settlements and Government Strategy in Civil War: Evidence from Darfur,”Civil Wars, Vol.9, NO.4, (Nov., 2007), pp.359-377, http://patrickjohnston.info/files/civilwars.pdf; Patrick M. Regan,“Choosing to Intervene: Outside Interventions in Internal Conflicts,”The Journal of Politics, Vol.60, No.3, (Aug., 1998), pp.754-779; Barbara F. Walter,“Does Conflict Beget Conflict? Explaining Recurring Civil War,”Journal of Peace Research, Vol.41, No.3, (May, 2004), pp.371-388; Barbara F. Walter,“Designing Transitions from Civil War: Demobilization, Democratization, and Commitments to Peace,”International Security, Vol.24, No.1, (Summer, 1999), pp.127-155; Barbara F. Walter and Jack Snyder, Civil Wars, Insecurity, and Intervention, New York: Columbia University Press, 1999; Barbara F. Walter, Committing to Peace: Successful Settlements of Civil Wars, Princeton: Princeton University, 2002.
④Richard C. Holbrooke, To End a War. New York: Random House, 1998.
⑤William Zartman,“The Unfinished Agenda: Negotiating Internal Conflicts,”in Roy Licklider ed., Stopping the Killing: How Civil Wars End, New York: New York University Press, 1993, pp.20-36.
⑥Michaela Mattes and Burcu Savun,“Fostering Peace after Civil War: Commitment Problem and Agreement Design,”International Security Quarterly, Vol.53, No.3, (Sep., 2009), pp.737-759.
①李少军著:《国际政治学概论》(第二版),上海人民出版社2005年8月版,第298页。
②章亚东:《斯里兰卡重现和平曙光》,《瞭望新闻周刊》,2002年9月23日第39期,第61页。
③Patrick M. Regan,“Conditions of Successful Third Party Intervention in Intra-State Conflicts,”The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.40, No.1, (Jun., 1996), pp.336–359.
④所谓积极和平指代的并非是一种终极状态,而是一种可以建设性地解决冲突的框架,并在此基础上实现人类的发展。从这个意义上说,积极和平是一个过程,或者说是一种方法而不是目的。消极和平则主要意味着避免各种冲突行为。
⑤可参见Linda R. Singer, Settling Disputes: Conflict Resolution in Business, Families, and the Legal System,Boulder, Colo: Westview, 1990, p.20.
①Patrick M. Regan,“Conditions of Successful Third Party Intervention in IntraState Conflicts,”The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.40, No.1, (Jun., 1996), pp.336–359.
②Michael Brzoska,“Putting more Teeth in UN Arms Embargoes,”in Cortright and Lopez (note 13), eds., p.125; Kimberly Ann Elliott,“Trends in Economic Sanctions Policy: Challenges to Conventional Wisdom,”and Carina Staibano,“Trends in UN Sanctions: From ad Hoc Practice to Institutional Capacity Building,”in Peter Wallensteen and Carina Staibano eds., International Sanctions: Between Words and Wars in the Global System London:Frank Cass, 2005, pp.3–14 and 31–54, respectively.
③Dylan Balch-Lindsay and Andrew J. Enterline,“Killing Time: The World Politics of Civil War Duration, 1820-1992,”International Studies Quarterly, Vol.44, No.4, (Dec., 2000), pp.615-642.
①Roy Licklider,“How Civil Wars End: Questions and Methods,”in Roy Licklider ed., Stopping the Killing: How Civil Wars End, New York: New York University Press, 1993, pp.3-19.
①本文认为是通过非强制性方式实现介入成功,表格中用Ι来标示;如果出现制裁、禁运和维和性介入等方式,本文认为是斡旋和调停失败,在有制裁、禁运和维和情况下的介入成功,本文认为是强制性介入作用的结果,表格中用Π来标示。
②James A. Wall, Jr. and Ann Lynn.“Mediation: A Current Review,”Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.37, No.1, (Mar., 1993), pp.160-194.
①John. S. Murray,“The Cairo Stories: Some Reflections on Conflict Resolution in Egypt,”Negotiation Journal, Vol.13, No.1, (Jan., 1997), pp.39-60.
①Barbara F. Walter,“The Critical Barrier to Civil War Settlement,”International Organization, Vol.51, No.3 (Summer, 1997), pp.335-364.
②Caroline Hartzell, Matthew Hoddie and Donald Rothchild,“Stabilizing the Peace after Civil War: An Investigation of Some Key Variables,”International Organization, Vol.55, No.1, (Winter, 2001), pp.183-208.
③Frederic S. Pearson, Marie Olson Lounsbery, Scott Walker and Sonja Mann,“Rethinking Models of Civil War Settlement,”International Interactions, Vol.32, No.2, (Apr., 2006), pp.109–128.
④Sue Williams and Robert Ricigliano,“Choosing to Engage: Armed Group and Peace Process,”Understanding Armed Conflicts, Accord 2005, Issue 16, pp.16-17.
⑤Michaela Mattes and Burcu Savun,“Fostering Peace after Civil War: Commitment Problem and Agreement Design,”International Security Quarterly, Vol.53, No.3, (Sep., 2009), pp.737-759.
①Roy Licklider,“How Civil Wars End: Questions and Methods,”in Roy Licklider ed., Stopping the Killing: How Civil Wars End, New York: New York University Press, 1993, p.16.
②以上条款转引自许光建:《<联合国宪章>诠释》,太原:山西教育出版社1999年版,第368,382页。
③蒲宁、陈晓东著:《国际冲突研究》,北京:时事出版社2007年版,第73页。
①罗建波:《对非洲自主维和行动的思考》,《西亚非洲》,2003年第3期,第49页。
②李东燕:《新旧两代维和行动之比较》,《世界经济与政治》,1996年第1期,第46页。
③蒋振西:《试论联合国维和行动》,《国际问题研究》,2008年第3期,第42页。
④冷战后,联合国做出的9场武器禁运包括:1992—2001年针对利比里亚政府,1993—2002年针对安哥拉政府反政府武装(其间安哥拉发生两次冲突),1994—1995年针对卢旺达政府,1995—今针对卢旺达反政府武装,1997—1998年针对塞拉利昂政府,1998—2001年对南斯拉夫政府,2000—2002年针对阿富汗塔利班组织,2001—2003针对利比里亚政府;联合国实施的7场经济制裁包括:1991—2001年的对南联盟,1992—1998年对利比里亚的制裁,1993—2002年对安哥拉反政府武装(安盟)的制裁,1994—1995年对卢旺达的制裁,1997—2003年对塞拉利昂的制裁,1999—2002对阿富汗塔利班的制裁,2000—2006年对利比里亚的制裁。
①所谓线性关系是指(1)系统输出(output)的变化与输入(input)的变化是成比例的;(2)系统的两个输入之和所对应的输出等于单个输入所产生之输入的总和。转引自【美】罗伯特·杰维斯著:《系统效应:政治与社会生活中的复杂性》,李少军、杨少华、官志雄译,上海世纪出版集团2008年版,第37页。
②【美】罗伯特·杰维斯著:前引书,第3页。
①【美】罗伯特·杰维斯著:《系统效应:政治与社会生活中的复杂性》,李少军、杨少华、官志雄译,上海世纪出版集团2008年版,第42页。
②【美】罗伯特·杰维斯著:前引书,第38页。
③【俄】】B.M.库拉金著:《国际安全》,纽菊生、雷晓菊译,武汉大学出版社2009年版,第119页。
①张洁:《印尼亚齐问题政治和解的原因探析》,《当代亚太》,2007年第1期,第22页。
①徐绍丽:《印尼地区性动乱原因分析》,《当代亚太》,2000年第3期,第31页。
①张洁:《印尼亚齐问题政治和解的原因探析》,《当代亚太》,2007年第1期,第28页。
②“Armed Conflict and Peace Agreements.”Journal of Peace Research 43(5), the UCDP Peace Agreement Dataset.
①William Tordoff, Government and Politics in Africa (Second Edition), the Macmillan Press Ltd, 1993, p.174.转引自贺文萍著:《非洲国家民主化进程比较研究》,北京:时事出版社2005年版,第142页。
②【美】罗伯逊:《民主政体及其形成条件》,陈于后、阮良能译,《国外社会科学文摘》,1989年第4期,第40—42页。
①利比里亚国内冲突进程参考了李文刚编著:《列国志:利比里亚》,北京:社会科学文献出版社2006年版, 第二章第三节。
①以上内容参考吴华、王昉、周定湘主编:《全球冲突与争端》,(非洲·综合卷),北京:世界知识出版社1998年版,第29页。
②罗建波:《西共体在利比里亚的维和行动反思》,《西亚非洲》,2002年第2期,第32页。
③http://cn.io.gov.mo/Legis/International/record/511.aspx
①以上内容参考吴华、王昉、周定湘主编:《全球冲突与争端》,(非洲·综合卷),北京:世界知识出版社1998 年版,第30页。
①王志平主编:《硝烟中的沉思:当代世界武装冲突中的民族宗教问题研究》,北京:中国社会科学出版社2003年版,第3页。
②参考肖勤:《车臣问题的来龙去脉》,《国际资料信息》,2001年第8期,第1—2页。
③Graham Smith: Nationalities Policy from Lenin to Gorbachev, The Nationalities Question in the Soviet Union, Longman London and New York, 1990, p.7.
④参考李华:《俄罗斯车臣恐怖主义产生的根源》,《东北亚论坛》,2005年第3期,第56页。
①丁佩华:《车臣民族问题论析》,《世界民族》,2002年第6期,第31页。
②参考陈延琪、胡红萍著:《车臣跨世纪的反恐战争》,乌鲁木齐:新疆人民出版社2004年版,第三章。
①百度百科:《第一次车臣战争》,http://baike.baidu.com/view/350909.htm
②参见中国现代国际关系研究所民族与宗教研究中心著:《全球民族问题大聚焦》,北京:时事出版社2001年版,第222页。
③李华:《俄罗斯车臣恐怖主义产生的根源》,《东北亚论坛》,2005年第3期,第54页。
①赵龙庚:《从世界民族分裂主义看车臣危机》,《东欧中亚研究》,2002年第2期,第21页。
②由于第一次车臣冲突发生过程中并没有明显的外部正规力量支持和介入,在冲突解决中也没有外部的斡旋、调停和制裁等,因此,本文第四章的表格中认为在车臣冲突解决中没有第三方介入。但并不是说冲突中完全没有外部资金、技术和舆论等的影响,在全球化之外,任何冲突都不能绝对与外部世界隔绝开来。
③侯艾君:《车臣问题与外部因素》,《俄罗斯研究》,2005年第2期,第42页。
④何明远:《统一没商量》,北京:国防大学出版社2001年版,第54页。
⑤赵龙庚:《车臣问题的历史沿革》,载于何希泉主编:《全球民族问题大聚焦》,北京:时事出版社2001年版,第222页。
①参考【美】罗伯特·杰维斯著:《系统效应:政治与社会生活中的复杂性》,李少军、杨少华、官志雄译,上海世纪出版集团2008年版,第37-38页。
②Paul Collier, Anke Hoeffler and M?ns S?derbom,“On the Duration of Civil War,”Journal of Peace Research, Vol.41, No.3, (May, 2004), p.266.
③参考Le Billon, Philippe; Jake Sherman & Marcia Hartwell,“Controlling Resource Flows to Civil Wars: A Review and Analysis of Current Policies and Legal Instruments,”New York: International Peace Academy, 2002.
④参考《从血腥走向和平——钻石业为非洲冲突地区带来曙光》,http://www.21gem.com/news/10904.html.
①张洁:《印尼亚齐问题政治和解的原因探析》,《当代亚太》,2007年第1期,第26页。
②所谓“蝴蝶效应”,是指一件表面上看来毫无关系、非常微小的事情,但却可能带来巨大的改变。美国气象学家洛伦兹(Lorenz)1979年在一次演讲中提出了这种说法。他说,一只南美洲亚马逊河流域热带雨林中的蝴蝶,偶尔扇动几下翅膀,可以在两周后引起美国德克萨斯州的一场龙卷风,原因在于蝴蝶扇动翅膀,导致了周边空气系统的变化,产生微弱气流,微弱的气流进而又引起四周空气和其他系统的变化,产生连锁反应,进而导致空气的极大变化。
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国际战略研究所http://acd.iiss.org/armedconflict/MainPages/dsp_WorldMap.asp
加拿大的犁铧项目http://www.ploughshares.ca/
乌普萨拉大学冲突数据库(UCDP):http://www.ucdp.uu.se/gpdatabase/search.php
战争关联数据库(COW): http://www.correlatesofwar.org/
系统和平研究中心(CSP):http://www.systemicpeace.org/
奥斯陆国际和平研究所(PRIO):http://www.prio.no/
国际发展与冲突管理中心(CIDCM)http://www.cidcm.umd.edu/
斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所(SIPRI)http://www.sipri.org/
德国海德堡国际冲突研究所(HIIK)http://www.hiik.de/en/index.html
②参考蒲宁、陈晓东著:《国际冲突研究》,北京:时事出版社2007年版,第65页。
③Karen Rasler,“Internationalized Civil War: A Dynamic Analysis of the Syrian Intervention in Lebanon,”Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 27, No. 3, (Sep., 1983), pp.421-456.
④当今对国内冲突的研究,较多的集中在产生原因方面。目前,对国内冲突产生原因的分析主要有三种观点:第一种观点认为冲突产生与国家的经济、政治、社会、地缘特征等因素有关;第二种观点认为贫困、人口过多、较低的经济发展水平、政治不稳等都增加了国家发生冲突的危险;第三种观点认为对自然资源的依赖、移民社群的存在、集中的人口、复杂的地形、国内合法政权的缺失都与国内冲突产生相关。
⑤Peter Wallensteen, Understanding Conflict Resolution: War, Peace and the Global System (Second Edition), London: Sage Publication Ltd., 2007; Stephen John Stedman, Donald Rothchild and Elizabeth M. Cousens, Ending Civil Wars: the Implementation of Peace Agreements, Published in the United States of America in 2002 by Lynne Rienner Publisher, Inc;Anna K. Jarstad & Timothy D. Sisk, From War to Democracy: Dilemmas to Peacebuilding, Cambridege University Press, 2008.
⑥熊玉祥著:《全球国家内部武装冲突》,北京:军事科学出版社2007年版。
①Roy Licklider,“How Civil Wars End: Questions and Methods,”in Roy Licklider ed., Stopping the Killing: How Civil Wars End, New York: New York University Press, 1993, pp.3-19.
②T. David Mason and Patrick J. Fett,“How Civil Wars End: A Rational Choice Approach,”The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.40, No.4, (Dec., 1996), pp.546-568.
①Caroline Hartzell, Matthew Hoddie and Donald Rothchild,“Stabilizing the Peace after Civil War: An Investigation of Some Key Variables,”International Organization, Vol.55, No.1, (Winter, 2001), pp.183-208. Frederic S. Pearson, Marie Olson Lounsbery, Scott Walker and Sonja Mann,“Rethinking Models of Civil War Settlement,”International Interactions, Vol.32, No.2, (Apr., 2006), pp.109–128.
②Caroline Hartzell, Matthew Hoddie and Donald Rothchild, ibid, pp.183-208; Frederic S. Pearson, Marie Olson Lounsbery, Scott Walker and Sonja Mann, ibid, pp.109–128.
①李少军著:《国际关系学研究方法》,北京:中国社会科学出版社2008年版,第166页。
①阎学通、孙学峰著:《国际关系研究实用方法》,北京:人民出版社2001版,第112页。
②阎学通、孙学峰著:前引书,第114页。
③李少军著:《国际关系学研究方法》,北京:中国社会科学出版社2008年版,第129—130页。
④李少军著:前引书,第99页。
⑤引自【美】詹姆斯·多尔蒂、小罗伯特·普法尔茨格拉夫著:《争论中的国际关系理论》,阎学通、陈寒溪等译,北京:世界知识出版社2003年版,第115页。
①王同亿主编:《现代汉语大辞典》,海口:海南出版社1992年版,第176页。
②【美】詹姆斯·多尔蒂、小罗伯特·普法尔茨格拉夫著:《争论中的国际关系理论》,阎学通、陈寒溪等译,北京:世界知识出版社2003年版,第200页。
③李学保:《西方国际冲突研究:视角、内涵与趋向》,《社会主义研究》,2008年第6期,第117页。
④【美】科塞(Coser.A.)著:《社会冲突的功能》,孙立平等译,北京:华夏出版社1989年版,第2页。
⑤胡平著:《国际冲突分析与危机管理研究》,北京:军事文艺出版社1993年版,第45页
①参考倪世雄等著:《当代西方国际关系理论》,上海:复旦大学出社版2001年版,第269—270页
②UCDP数据库的定义http://www.pcr.uu.se/research/UCDP/data_and_publications/definitions_all.htm
③斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所2007年的报告中提出了“跨国主义”(transnationalism)的概念,对跨国冲突概念的形成具有启示意义。
④参考乌普萨拉数据库, UCDP Non-State conflict Dataset, available at http://www.pcr.uu.se/research/UCDP/data_and_publications/datasets.htm.
⑤Ronald J. Glossop, Confronting War, Jefferson and London: Mcfarland, 1983, pp.7—8.转引自李少军著:《国际政治学概论》(第二版),上海人民出版社2005年版,第236页。
①Melvin Small and J. David Singer, Resort to Arms: International and Civil Wars, 1816-1980, Beverly Hills, CA: Sage, 1982, p.216.
②熊玉祥著:《冷战后全球国家内部武装冲突》,北京:军事科学出版社2007年,第7页。
③本文所关注的主要是冷战之后发生的国内武装冲突,为了研究的方便,合法政府以具有联合国合法席位的政府为准。截止2009年,联合国共有192个成员国,梵蒂冈被国际社会普遍承认,但是非联合国成员国。梵蒂冈并未发生武装冲突,因此本文冲突是指发生在联合国192个成员国内部的冲突。
④参考瑞典乌普萨拉大学冲突数据库,( Uppsala Conflict Data Program )对武装冲突的定义,http://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/datasets/definitions/
⑤Bruce Hoffman, Inside Terrorism, New York: Columbia University Press, 1998, p.41.
①斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所:《SIPRI年鉴2003年》,中国军控与裁军协会译,北京:世界知识出版社2004年,第99,104页。
②Nils Petter Gleditsch, Peter Wallensteen, Mikael Eriksson, Margareta Sollenberg and H?vard Strand,“Armed Conflict 1946–2001: A New Dataset,”Journal of Peace Research, Vol.39, No.5, (Sep., 2002), p.619.
③http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/nepal/database/majorattacks.htm
④朱文奇:《战争罪与武装冲突性质的关系问题》,《西安政治学院学报》,2003年第1期,第76页。
①熊玉祥著:《冷战后全球国家内部武装冲突》,北京:军事科学出版社2007年3月版,第8页。
②参考多伊奇在其名著《国际关系分析》中的划分。【美】卡尔·多伊奇(Karl W. Deutsch)著:《国际关系分析》,周启朋等译、吴宝璐、杜仲瀛校,北京:世界知识出版社1992年版,第173页。
③张骥、刘中民:《文化对冷战后国际政治的影响与跨世纪中国文化战略的构建》,《中国软科学》,1998年第3期,第120页。
④莱索托,百度百科: http://baike.baidu.com/view/22017.htm ;人民日报:《莱索托局势恶化》,http://web.peopledaily.com.cn/199809/24/col_980924001055_gjxw.html
①【美】科塞(Coser.A.)著:《社会冲突的功能》,孙立平等译,北京:华夏出版社1989年版,第136页。
②参考蒲宁、陈晓东著:《国际冲突研究》,北京:时事出版社2007年版,第265页。
③参考蒲宁、陈晓东著:前引书,第24页。
④熊玉祥著:《冷战后全球国家内部武装冲突》,北京:军事科学出版社2007年版,第41—57页。
⑤本文对不相容性的划分采用了瑞典乌普萨拉大学冲突数据库(UCDP)对冲突的划分标准。具体参见:http://www.pcr.uu.se/research/UCDP/data_and_publications/definitions_all.htm
①具体参见:http://www.pcr.uu.se/research/UCDP/data_and_publications/definitions_all.htm
②Halvard Buhaug,“Relative Capability and Rebel Objective in Civil War,”Journal of Peace Research, Vol.43, No.6, (Nov., 2006), p.693.
①Halvard Buhaug,“Relative Capability and Rebel Objective in Civil War,”Journal of Peace Research, Vol.43, No.6, (Nov., 2006), p.706.
②参见贾若瑜主编:《游击战》,北京:军事科学出版社1985年版,第31页。
③李少军著:《国际政治学概论》(第二版),上海人民出版社2005年版,第434页。
①李乐:《从民族、民族主义的概念解析民族分离主义》,《黑龙江民族丛刊》,2008年第4期,第58页。
②徐蓝:《关于民族主义的若干历史思考》,《史学理论研究》,1997年第3期,第20页。
③Stephen Van Evera,“Hypotheses on Nationalism and War,”International Security, Vol.18, No. 4, (Spring 1994),转引自李少军著:《国际政治学概论》(第二版),上海人民出版社2005年版,第478页。
④朱伦:《“跨界民族”辨析与“现代泛民族主义”问题》,《世界民族》,1999年第1期,第15-16页。
⑤这里的民族是指历史上形成的具有共同血缘关系、共同心理情感和人群共同体,亦即ethnic意义上的民族,参考张友国:《亚文化、民族认同与民族分离主义》,《西南大学学报》,2007年第4期,第181页。
①陈衍德、彭慧、高金明、王黎明著:《全球化进程中的东南亚民族问题研究》,厦门大学出版社2008年,第89页。
②杨勉:《当代世界的民族分离主义》,《现代国际关系》,2000年第8期,第21页。
③王志平主编:《硝烟中的沉思:当代世界武装冲突中的民族宗教问题研究》,北京:中国社会科学出版社2003年版,第41页。
④邓浩:《当前世界民族问题发展的基本态势及其走向》,《国际问题研究》,2000年第4期,第42页。
①J. Moore,“Towards an Applied Theory for the Regulation of Intervention,”in Hugh Miall, Oliver Ramsbotham and Tom Woodhouse, Contemporary Conflict Resolution, Cambridge: Cambridge Polity Press, 2000, p.71.
②Mark R. Amstutz, International Conflict and Cooperation: An Introduction to World Politics, Boston:McGrawHill College, 1999, pp.255-261.
①引自Lotta Harbom and Peter Wallensteen,“Armed Conflicts, 1946–2008,”Journal of Peace Research, Vol.46, No.4, (Jul., 2009), p.578.
②熊玉祥著:《冷战后全球国家内部武装冲突》,北京:军事科学出版社2007年版,第21页。
③加拿大犁铧项目网站http://www.ploughshares.ca/libraries/ACRText/ACR-TitlePage.html
①参考熊玉祥著:《冷战后全球国家内部武装冲突》,北京:军事科学出版社2007年版,第36—37页。
②【美】理查德·N·哈斯著:《新干涉主义》,北京:新华出版社2000版,第116页。
③伯顿提出了“外溢效应”的观点,他认为国际层次的冲突是一些国内机构或个人问题外溢而形成的。参见【澳】约翰·W·伯顿著:《全球冲突:国际危机的国内根源》,北京:中国人民公安大学出版社1991年版,第118页。
①蒲宁、陈晓东著:《国际冲突研究》,北京:时事出版社2007年版,第38页。
②李继东著:《现代化的延误—对独立后“非洲病”的初步分析》,北京:中国经济出版社1997年版,第49页。
③【美】杰克·普拉诺等著:《政治学分析词典》,北京:中国社会科学出版社1986年版。
④Harald Müller,“The Internalization of Principles, Norms, and Rules by Governments: The Case of Security Regimes,”in Volker Rittberger and Peter Mayer, eds., Theories of International Regimes, New York: CambridgeUniversity Press, 1997, p.361.
①是指从巴尔干半岛经中东、克什米尔地区、喜马拉雅山南麓直到东南亚的一条斜贯欧亚大陆南部的地带。这一地带民族众多,各种宗教、教派纷繁复杂,同时这一地带国家林立,且各国大小不同、强弱迥异、贫富悬殊。
②Timothy D. Sisk, International Mediation in Civil Wars: Bargaining with Bullets, New York: Routledge, 2009, p.33.
③转引自T. David Mason and Patrick J. Fett,“How Civil Wars End: A Rational Choice Approach,”the Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.40, No.4, (Dec., 1996), pp.546-568.
④联合国新闻:“环境署:利比里亚内战严重破坏了自然环境”,
①Siyan Chen, Norman V. Loayza和Marta Reynal-Querol,转引自《内战的后果》,邹恒甫、郝睿编:《非洲冲突研究》,北京:人民日报出版社2010版,第65页。
②《1951年联合国难民公约》,见联合国难民署:《2000年世界难民状况》,牛津大学出版社2000年版,第23页,转引自少军著:《国际政治学概论》(第二版),上海人民出版社2005年版,第542页。
③联合国难民署1996年5月数字,见联合国难民署:《2000年世界难民状况》,牛津大学出版社2000版,第185页,转引自李少军著:《国际政治学概论》(第二版),上海人民出版社2005年版,第546页。
④卜建华:《当代民族分离主义兴起的原因探析》,《山东省青年管理干部学院学报》,2008年第6期,第131页。
①Herbert C. Kelman, Forword, in Dennis J.D. Sandole& Hugo Van der Merwe eds., Conflict Resolution Theory and Practice: Integration and Application, Manchester University Press 1993.
②John W. Burton,“Conflict Resolution as a Political Philosophy,”in Dennis J.D. Sandole& Hugo Van der Merwe eds., Conflict Resolution Theory and Practice: Integration and Application, Manchester University Press 1993, p.60.
③Peter Wallensteen, Understanding Conflict Resolution: War, Peace and the Global System (Second Edition), London: Sage Publication Ltd., 2007, p.47.
④蒲宁、陈晓东著:《国际冲突研究》,北京:时事出版社2007年版,第65页。
①Joakim Kreutz, (2006),“How Armed Conflicts End,”Unpublished manuscript.
②T. David Mason and Patrick J. Fett,“How Civil Wars End: A Rational Choice Approach,”The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.40, No.4, (Dec., 1996), pp.546-568.
③Karl R. DeRouen Jr and David Sobek,“The Dynamics of Civil War Duration and Outcome,”Journal of Peace Research, Vol.41, No.3, (May, 2004), pp.303-320.
④原文是在分析国际冲突的可能结局,本文认为这对国内冲突的结局也是同样适用的。
①参考胡平著:《国际冲突分析与危机管理研究》,北京:军事文艺出版社1993年版,第99页。
②UCDP数据库的冲突终止的分类方法,Joakim Kreutz, (2006),“How Armed Conflicts End,”Unpublished manuscript.
③新华网:中国政府对安哥拉问题的立场,http://news.xinhuanet.com/ziliao/2003-01/20/content_697435.htm
④人民网:http://www.people.com.cn/GB/historic/0410/1154.html
①James D. D. Smith, Stopping Wars: Defining the Obstacles to Cease-fire, Boulder: Westview Press, 1995, p.266.
②Charles W. Kegley, Jr.Gregory A. Raymond, From War to Peace: Fateful Decisions in International Politics,世界政治与国际关系原版影印丛书,北京大学出版社2003年版,第12页。
③李益波:《印度东北地区部族分离主义运动探析》,《世界民族》,2007年第3期,第36页。
①Kenneth J. Gergen and Kurt W. Back,“Aging, Time Perspective, and Preferred Solutions to International Conflicts,”The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 9, No. 2, (Jun., 1965), pp.177-186.
②转引自Charles W. Kegley, Jr.Gregory A. Raymond, From War to Peace: Fateful Decisions in International Politics,世界政治与国际关系原版影印丛书,北京大学出版社2003年版,第14页。
①Peter Wallensteen, Understanding Conflict Resolution: War, Peace and the Global System (Second Edition), London: Sage Publication Ltd., 2007, p.28.
②Karl R. DeRouen Jr and David Sobek,“The Dynamics of Civil War Duration and Outcome,”Journal of Peace Research, Vol.41, No.3, (May, 2004), p.303.
③Roy Licklider,“How Civil Wars End: Questions and Methods,”in Roy Licklider ed., Stopping the Killing: How Civil Wars End, New York: New York University Press, 1993, p.4.
④Paul R. Pillar, Negotiating Peace: WarTtermination as a Bargaining Process, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1983, p.24.
⑤Darren Filson and Suzanne Werner,“A Bargaining Model of War and Peace: Anticipating the Onset, Duration, and Outcome of War,”Claremont Colleges, Working Paper 2001-2002.
①参考Charles W. Kegley, Jr. Gregory A. Raymond, From War to Peace: Fateful Decisions in International Politics,世界政治与国际关系原版影印丛书,北京大学出版社2003年版,第13页。
②C. Barnes A. Griffiths,“Influencing Resolution: External Roles Changing the Strategic Calculus of Conflict,”in Accord Issue 19, Power of Persuasion: Incentives, Sanctions and Conditionality in Peacemaking, Conciliation Resources, 2008. at http://www.c-r.org/our-work/accord/ incentives/ influencing-resolution.php转引自Ryan Gawn,“Arms to Agreement: Northern Ireland’s Move from War to Peace,”Strategic Analysis, Vol.33, No.4, (Jul., 2009) pp.516-527.
③【美】大卫·巴拉什、查尔斯·韦伯著:《积极和平——和平与冲突研究》,刘成等译,南京出版社2007年版,第258页。
④Christine Bell,“Peace Agreements: Their Nature and Legal Status,”The American Journal of International Law, Vol.100, No.2, (Apr., 2006), pp.373-412.
①Michaela Mattes and Burcu Savun,“Fostering Peace after Civil War: Commitment Problem and Agreement Design,”International Security Quarterly, Vol.53, No.3, (Sep., 2009), p.739.
②【美】詹姆斯·多尔蒂和小罗伯特·普法尔茨格拉夫著:《争论中的国际关系理论》,邵文光译,北京:世界知识出版社1987年版,第200页。
③蒲宁、陈晓东著:《国际冲突研究》,北京:时事出版社2007年版,第17页。
①中国社会科学院语言研究所词典编辑室编:《现代汉语词典》,北京:商务印书馆2005年版,第676页。
②《朗文当代高级英语词典》,北京:外语教学与研究出版社2004版,第1939页。
①Moorad Mooradian and Daniel Druckman,“Hurting Stalemate or Mediation? The Conflict over Nagorno -Karabakh, 1990-95,”Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 36, No. 6, (Nov., 1999), p.713.
②【美】科尔曼著:《社会理论的基础》,邓方译,北京:社会科学文献出版社1990年版,第22–23页。
③陈宏:《博弈论与战略互动》,《外交评论》,2007年第4期,第100页。
④William Zartman,“The Timing of Peace Initiatives: Hurting Stalemates and Ripe Moments,”The Global Review of Ethno politics, Vol.1, No.1, (Sep., 2001), p.8.
①Donald Wittman,“How a War Ends: A Rational Model Approach,”The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 23, No. 4, (Dec., 1979), pp.743-763.
②可以参考Moorad Mooradian and Daniel Druckman,“Hurting Stalemate or Mediation? The Conflict over Nagorno- Karabakh, 1990-95,”Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 36, No. 6 (Nov., 1999), pp.709-727; Roy Licklider,“Civil War Outcomes,”Saltzman Working Paper No. 11, (Nov., 2009), http://www.siwps.com/programs/SWP.attachment/no-11--/No%2011%20-%20Licklider.pdf; Janice Gross Stein,“Getting to the Table: The Triggers, Stages, Functions, and Consequences of Prenegotiation,”International Journal, Vol. 44, No. 2, Getting to the Table: Process of International Prenegotiation (Spring, 1989), pp. 475-504; Philip A. Schrodt, ?mür Yilmaz, and Deborah J. Gerner,“Evaluating‘Ripeness’and‘Hurting Stalemate’in Mediated International Conflicts:An Event Data Study of the Middle East, Balkans and West Africa,”Paper prepared for delivery at the Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association, Portland, Oregon, USA, (Feb., 2003), http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.15.7130&rep=rep1&type=pdf等文章。
③胡平著:《国际冲突分析与危机管理研究》,北京:军事文艺出版社1993年版,第77页。
④Moorad Mooradian and Daniel Druckman,“Hurting Stalemate or Mediation? The Conflict over Nagorno -Karabakh, 1990-95,”Journal of Peace Research, Vol.36, No.6 (Nov., 1999), p.712.
⑤William Zartman,“Ripeness: The Hurting Stalemate and Beyond,”in Paul C. Stern and Daniel Druckman eds., International Conflict Resolution After the Cold War, Washington D.C.:National Academy Press, 2000, p.228.
①转引自【英】R. P.巴斯顿著:《现代外交》,赵怀普等译,北京:世界知识出版社2002年版,第102页。
②鲁毅等著:《外交学概论》,北京:世界知识出版社2000年版,第173页。
③文婕:《国际谈判过程理论初探》,《贵州师范大学学报(社会科学版)》,2004年第5期。上面谈判的观点是作者在分析国际谈判的特点时候提出来的,本文认为这些观点同样适用于国内武装冲突解决中的和平谈判。
①James D. Fearon,“Bargaining, Enforcement, and International Cooperation,”International Organization, Vol.52, No.2, (Spring, 1998), p.274.
②陈宏:《博弈论与战略互动》,《外交评论》,2007年第4期,第100页。
③在下列文章中,在对影响冲突解决因素的进行分析,案例的选取多从二战之后开始。详见Caroline Hartzell, Matthew Hoddie and Donald Rothchild,“Stabilizing the Peace after Civil War: An Investigation of Some Key Variables,”International Organization, Vol.55, No.1, (Winter, 2001), pp.183-208; Frederic S. Pearson, Marie Olson Lounsbery, Scott Walker and Sonja Mann,“Rethinking Models of Civil War Settlement,”International Interactions, Vol.32, No.2, (Apr., 2006), pp.109–128; T. David Mason and Patrick J. Fett,“How Civil Wars End: A Rational Choice Approach,”The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.40, No.4, (Dec., 1996), pp.546-568; Roy Licklider,“Civil War Outcomes,”Saltzman Working Paper, No.11, (Nov., 2009), http://www.siwps.com/programs/SWP.attachment/no-11--/No%2011%20-%20Licklider.pdf.
①伊斯兰的武装组织数量众多,比较著名的有伊斯兰武装运动、争取伊斯兰国家运动、伊斯兰武装组织(集团)、武装圣战伊斯兰阵线、伊斯兰拯救军、伊斯兰圣战和宣教协会、塞莱菲耶宣教和战斗组织等。
②涂龙德:《阿尔及利亚原教旨主义组织研究》,《阿拉伯世界研究》,2008年第3期,第44页。
③搜搜百科:http://baike.soso.com/v7960628.htm
④百度百科:http://baike.baidu.com/view/431885.htm
①【日】入江昭著:《20世纪的战争与和平》,李静阁等译,北京:世界知识出版社2005年版,第4页。
②Roy Licklider,“How Civil Wars End: Questions and Methods,”in Roy Licklider ed., Stopping the Killing: How Civil Wars End, New York: New York University Press, 1993, pp.3-19.
③T. David Mason and Patrick J. Fett,“How Civil Wars End: A Rational Choice Approach,”The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.40, No.4, (Dec., 1996), pp.546-568.
④Caroline Hartzell, Matthew Hoddie and Donald Rothchild,“Stabilizing the Peace after Civil War: An Investigation of Some Key Variables,”International Organization, Vol.55, No.1, (Winter, 2001), pp.183-208.
⑤Frank L. Klingberg,“Predicting the Termination of War: Battle Casualties and Population Losses,”The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.10, No.2, (Jun., 1966), pp.129-171.
①T. David Mason and Patrick J. Fett,“How Civil Wars End: A Rational Choice Approach,”The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.40, No.4, (Dec., 1996), pp.546-568.
②William Zartman,“The Unfinished Agenda: Negotiating Internal Conficts,”in Roy Licklider ed., Stopping the Killing: How Civil Wars End, New York: New York University Press, 1993, pp.20-36.
③T. David Mason and Patrick J. Fett, ibid, pp.546-568.
①Fred C. Ikle, Every War Must End, New York: Columbia University Press, 1971, p.95.
②T. David Mason and Patrick J. Fett,“How Civil Wars End: A Rational Choice Approach,”The Journal ofConflict Resolution, Vol.40, No.4, (Dec., 1996), pp.546-568.
①参见James D. Fearon,“Rationalist Explanations for War,”International Organization, Vol.49, No.3, (Summer, 1995), pp.379-414.
②T. David Mason, Patrick J. Fett,“How Civil Wars End: A Rational Choice Approach,”the Journal of Conflict Resolution, (Dec., 1996), Vol.40, No.4, p.555.
①Roy Licklider,“How Civil Wars End: Questions and Methods,”in Roy Licklider ed., Stopping the Killing: How Civil Wars End, New York: New York University Press, 1993, pp.3-19.
②Caroline Hartzell, Matthew Hoddie and Donald Rothchild,“Stabilizing the Peace after Civil War: An Investigation of Some Key Variables,”International Organization, Vol.55, No.1, (Winter, 2001), pp.183-208.
①【英】戴维·米勒、韦农·波格丹诺主编:《布莱克维尔政治学百科全书》,邓正莱等译,北京:中国政法大学出版社1992年版,第345页。
②【法】莫里斯·迪韦尔热著:《政治社会学》,杨祖功译,北京:华夏出版社1987年版,第9页。
③【美】丹尼尔·贝尔著:《意识形态的终结》,张国清译,南京:江苏人民出版社2001年版,第506页。
④【俄】B.M.库拉金著:《国际安全》,纽菊生、雷晓菊译,武汉大学出版社2009年版,第120页。
⑤人民网:“哥伦比亚游击队要求巴西新总统调解冲突”,http://news.sina.com.cn/w/2010-11-16/163221481293.shtml
①张友国:《亚文化、民族认同与民族分离主义》,《西南大学学报》,2007年第4期,第181页。
②参见【美】塞缪尔·亨廷顿著:《我们是谁?美国国家特性面临的挑战》,程克雄译,北京:新华出版社2005年版。
①国家宗教事务局宗教研究中心编写:《当代世界宗教问题》,北京:宗教文化出版社2007年版,第1页。
②国家宗教事务局宗教研究中心编写:前引书,第38页。
③《马克思恩格斯选集》(第2版),第3卷,北京:人民出版社1995年版,第666—667页。
④刘中民:《论宗教对国际政治的影响》,《欧洲》,1996年第5期,第20页。
①约翰·康韦尔:《原教旨主义:野蛮的救世主》,英国《星期日泰晤士报》,2001年11月25日。
②百度百科:http://baike.baidu.com/view/203471.htm
③K. R. Darked., Region and International Relations, Macmillan Press LTD, 2000, pp.14-15.
①倪世雄等著:《当代西方国际关系理论》,上海:复旦大学出版社2001年版,第451页。
②Halvard Buhaug,“Relative Capability and Rebel Objective in Civil War,”Journal of Peace Research, Vol.43, No.6, (Nov., 2006), pp. 691-708.
③Gil Merom, How Democracies Lose Small Wars: State, Society, and the Failures of France in Algeria, Israel in Lebanon, and the United States in Vietnam, New York: Cambridge University Press, 2003.
④Michael C. Desch,“Democracy and Victory: Why Regime Type Hardly Matters,”International Security, Vol. 27, No. 2, (Fall, 2002), pp.5-47,转引自杨少华博士论文,《当代不对称冲突研究》,中国社科院研究院,2008。
①Caroline Hartzell, Matthew Hoddie and Donald Rothchild,“Stabilizing the Peace after Civil War: An Investigation of Some Key Variables,”International Organization, Vol.55, No.1, (Winter, 2001), pp.183-208.
①本文研究冷战之后的冲突,这里没有界定为受到20世纪90年代民主化浪潮的影响,是因为冷战之后的许多冲突是由冷战时期延续下来的,而这些冲突的产生有一部分受到20世纪60、70年代民主化浪潮的影响。
②参考贺文萍著:《非洲国家:民主化进程研究》,北京:时事出版社2005年版,第二章。
③何跃:《对转型国家多冲突的理论分析》,《云南行政学院学报》,2003年第6期,第84页。
④Edward D. Mansfield and Jack Snyder,“Democratization and the Danger of War,”International Security, Vol.20,
①Karl R. DeRouen Jr and David Sobek,“The Dynamics of Civil War Duration and Outcome,”Journal of Peace Research, Vol.41, No.3, (May, 2004), pp.303-320.
②William Zartman,“The Unfinished Agenda: Negotiating Internal Conficts,”in Roy Licklider ed., Stopping the Killing: How Civil Wars End, New York: New York University Press, 1993, pp.20-36.
③Bennett, D. Scott & Alan C. Stam III, 1996.“The Duration of Interstate Wars, 1816-1985,”American Political Science Review 90(2): 239-257.转引自Paul Collier, Anke Hoeffler and M?ns S?derbom,“On the Duration of Civil War,”Journal of Peace Research, Vol.41, No.3, (May, 2004), p.253.
④T. David Mason and Patrick J. Fett,“How Civil Wars End: A Rational Choice Approach,”The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.40, No.4, (Dec., 1996), pp.546-568.
①Roy Licklider,“How Civil Wars End: Questions and Methods,”in Roy Licklider ed., Stopping the Killing: How Civil Wars End, New York: New York University Press, 1993, pp.3-19.
②Dsirée Nilsson,“Partial Peace: Rebel Groups Inside and Outside of Civil War Settlements,”Journal of Peace Research, Vol.45, No.4, (Jul.,2008), pp.479–495.
③David E. Cunningham,“Veto Players and Civil War Duration,”American Journal of Political Science, Vol.50, No.4, (Oct., 2006), pp.875-892.
①Sue Williams and Robert Ricigliano,“Choosing to Engage: Armed Group and Peace Process,”Understanding Armed Conflicts, Accord 2005, Issue 16, pp.16-17.
①Christine Bell,“Peace Agreements: Their Nature and Legal Status,”The American Journal of International Law,Vol.100, No.2, (Apr., 2006), pp.373-412.
①Lotta Harbom and Peter Wallensteen,“Armed Conflict and Its International Dimensions, 1946-2004,”Journal of Peace Research, Vol.42, No.5, (Sep., 2005), pp.623-735.
②Michaela Mattes and Burcu Savun,“Fostering Peace after Civil War: Commitment Problem and Agreement Design,”International Security Quarterly, Vol.53, No.3, (Sep., 2009), p.738.
③Caroline Hartzell, Matthew Hoddie and Donald Rothchild,“Stabilizing the Peace after Civil War: An Investigation of Some Key Variables,”International Organization, Vol.55, No.1, (Winter, 2001), pp.183-208.
①参考中国社科院西亚非研究所莫桑比克概况,http://iwaas.cass.cn/gjgk/feizhou/2009-06-01/688.shtml
②关凯:《多元文化主义与民族区域自治——民族政策国际经验分析(下)》,《西北民族研究》,2004年第2期,第46页。
③列宁著:《列宁全集》(第25卷),北京:人民出版社1988年版,第73页。
①胡平著:《国际冲突分析与危机管理研究》,北京:军事文艺出版社1993年版,第111页。
②中国社会科学院语言研究所编辑室编:《现代汉语词典》,北京:商务印书馆2005年版,第702页。
③漆海霞:《国际斡旋的成败分析》,《国际政治科学》,2005年第4期,第24—51页。
④Jacob Bercocitch,“The Structure and Diversity of Mediation in International Relations,”in Jacob Bercocitch and Jeffrey Z. Rubin, ed., Mediation in International Relations: Multiple Approach to Conflict, New York, St. Martin’s Press, 1992, pp.4-5.
①许祥文:《现代国际武装冲突的社会学视角》,《南京政治学院学报》,2000年第4期,第81页。
②【俄】B.M.库拉金著:《国际安全》,纽菊生、雷晓菊译,武汉大学出版社2009年版,第272页。
③万书:《试论经济制裁》,《世界经济与政治》,2004年第9期,第27页。
④参考阮建平著:《战后美国对外经济制裁》,武汉大学出版社2009年版,第153-172页。
⑤Damien Fruchart, Paul Holtom and Siemon T. Wezeman, Daniel Strandow and Peter Wallensteen,“United Nations Arms Embargoes: their Impact on Arms Flows and Target Behavior,”SIPRI Report, http://books.sipri.org/files/misc/UNAE/SIPRI07UNAE.pdf.
①Damien Fruchart, Paul Holtom and Siemon T. Wezeman, Daniel Strandow and Peter Wallensteen, United Nations Arms Embargoes: their Impact on Arms Flows and Target Behavior, SIPRI Report, http://books.sipri.org/files/misc/UNAE/SIPRI07UNAE.pdf.
②中国日报网:《联合国可能取消对南联盟武器禁运和对苏丹制裁》,http://news.sina.com.cn/w/2001-09-06/349853.html
③秦亚青著:《霸权体系与国际冲突:美国在国际武装冲突中的支持行为(1945—1988)》,上海人民出版社2008年版,第125页。
④李东燕编著:《列国志:联合国》,北京:社会科学文献出版社2005年版,第193页。
①百度百科:http://baike.baidu.com/view/746405.htm
②See Kofi Annan,“Two Concepts of Sovereignty,”and Kofi Annan,“Human Right and Humanitarian Intervention in the Twenty-First Century,”转引自魏宗雷、邱桂荣、孙茹著:《西方“人道主义干预”理论与实践》,北京:时事出版社2003年版,第70页。
③Jane E. Holl,“When War Doesn't Work: Understanding the Relationship Between the Battlefield and the Negotiating Table,”in Roy Licklider ed., Stop the killing: How civil wars end, New York: New York University Press, 1993, p.286.
④Robert Cooper and Mats Berdal,“Outside Interventions in Ethnic Conflicts,”Survival,(Spring, 1993), Vol.35, No.1, pp.118-142.
①Edward N. Luttwak,“Give War a Chance,”Foreign Affairs, Vol.78, No.4, (Jul.-Aug.,1999), pp.36-44.
②汪丽萍:《国际干预及其对国家主权的挑战》,《国际观察》,1998年第1期,第17页。
③具体内容可以参考:Patrick M. Regan,“Third-Party Intervention and the Duration of Interstate Conflicts,”The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.46, No.1, Understanding Civil War, (Feb., 2002), pp.55-73; Patrick M. Regan,“Conditions of Successful Third Party Intervention in Intra-State Conflicts,”The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.40, No.1, (Jun., 1996), pp.336–359; Patrick Johnston,“Negotiated Settlements and Government Strategy in Civil War: Evidence from Darfur,”Civil Wars, Vol.9, NO.4, (Nov., 2007), pp.359-377, http://patrickjohnston.info/files/civilwars.pdf; Patrick M. Regan,“Choosing to Intervene: Outside Interventions in Internal Conflicts,”The Journal of Politics, Vol.60, No.3, (Aug., 1998), pp.754-779; Barbara F. Walter,“Does Conflict Beget Conflict? Explaining Recurring Civil War,”Journal of Peace Research, Vol.41, No.3, (May, 2004), pp.371-388; Barbara F. Walter,“Designing Transitions from Civil War: Demobilization, Democratization, and Commitments to Peace,”International Security, Vol.24, No.1, (Summer, 1999), pp.127-155; Barbara F. Walter and Jack Snyder, Civil Wars, Insecurity, and Intervention, New York: Columbia University Press, 1999; Barbara F. Walter, Committing to Peace: Successful Settlements of Civil Wars, Princeton: Princeton University, 2002.
④Richard C. Holbrooke, To End a War. New York: Random House, 1998.
⑤William Zartman,“The Unfinished Agenda: Negotiating Internal Conflicts,”in Roy Licklider ed., Stopping the Killing: How Civil Wars End, New York: New York University Press, 1993, pp.20-36.
⑥Michaela Mattes and Burcu Savun,“Fostering Peace after Civil War: Commitment Problem and Agreement Design,”International Security Quarterly, Vol.53, No.3, (Sep., 2009), pp.737-759.
①李少军著:《国际政治学概论》(第二版),上海人民出版社2005年8月版,第298页。
②章亚东:《斯里兰卡重现和平曙光》,《瞭望新闻周刊》,2002年9月23日第39期,第61页。
③Patrick M. Regan,“Conditions of Successful Third Party Intervention in Intra-State Conflicts,”The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.40, No.1, (Jun., 1996), pp.336–359.
④所谓积极和平指代的并非是一种终极状态,而是一种可以建设性地解决冲突的框架,并在此基础上实现人类的发展。从这个意义上说,积极和平是一个过程,或者说是一种方法而不是目的。消极和平则主要意味着避免各种冲突行为。
⑤可参见Linda R. Singer, Settling Disputes: Conflict Resolution in Business, Families, and the Legal System,Boulder, Colo: Westview, 1990, p.20.
①Patrick M. Regan,“Conditions of Successful Third Party Intervention in IntraState Conflicts,”The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.40, No.1, (Jun., 1996), pp.336–359.
②Michael Brzoska,“Putting more Teeth in UN Arms Embargoes,”in Cortright and Lopez (note 13), eds., p.125; Kimberly Ann Elliott,“Trends in Economic Sanctions Policy: Challenges to Conventional Wisdom,”and Carina Staibano,“Trends in UN Sanctions: From ad Hoc Practice to Institutional Capacity Building,”in Peter Wallensteen and Carina Staibano eds., International Sanctions: Between Words and Wars in the Global System London:Frank Cass, 2005, pp.3–14 and 31–54, respectively.
③Dylan Balch-Lindsay and Andrew J. Enterline,“Killing Time: The World Politics of Civil War Duration, 1820-1992,”International Studies Quarterly, Vol.44, No.4, (Dec., 2000), pp.615-642.
①Roy Licklider,“How Civil Wars End: Questions and Methods,”in Roy Licklider ed., Stopping the Killing: How Civil Wars End, New York: New York University Press, 1993, pp.3-19.
①本文认为是通过非强制性方式实现介入成功,表格中用Ι来标示;如果出现制裁、禁运和维和性介入等方式,本文认为是斡旋和调停失败,在有制裁、禁运和维和情况下的介入成功,本文认为是强制性介入作用的结果,表格中用Π来标示。
②James A. Wall, Jr. and Ann Lynn.“Mediation: A Current Review,”Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.37, No.1, (Mar., 1993), pp.160-194.
①John. S. Murray,“The Cairo Stories: Some Reflections on Conflict Resolution in Egypt,”Negotiation Journal, Vol.13, No.1, (Jan., 1997), pp.39-60.
①Barbara F. Walter,“The Critical Barrier to Civil War Settlement,”International Organization, Vol.51, No.3 (Summer, 1997), pp.335-364.
②Caroline Hartzell, Matthew Hoddie and Donald Rothchild,“Stabilizing the Peace after Civil War: An Investigation of Some Key Variables,”International Organization, Vol.55, No.1, (Winter, 2001), pp.183-208.
③Frederic S. Pearson, Marie Olson Lounsbery, Scott Walker and Sonja Mann,“Rethinking Models of Civil War Settlement,”International Interactions, Vol.32, No.2, (Apr., 2006), pp.109–128.
④Sue Williams and Robert Ricigliano,“Choosing to Engage: Armed Group and Peace Process,”Understanding Armed Conflicts, Accord 2005, Issue 16, pp.16-17.
⑤Michaela Mattes and Burcu Savun,“Fostering Peace after Civil War: Commitment Problem and Agreement Design,”International Security Quarterly, Vol.53, No.3, (Sep., 2009), pp.737-759.
①Roy Licklider,“How Civil Wars End: Questions and Methods,”in Roy Licklider ed., Stopping the Killing: How Civil Wars End, New York: New York University Press, 1993, p.16.
②以上条款转引自许光建:《<联合国宪章>诠释》,太原:山西教育出版社1999年版,第368,382页。
③蒲宁、陈晓东著:《国际冲突研究》,北京:时事出版社2007年版,第73页。
①罗建波:《对非洲自主维和行动的思考》,《西亚非洲》,2003年第3期,第49页。
②李东燕:《新旧两代维和行动之比较》,《世界经济与政治》,1996年第1期,第46页。
③蒋振西:《试论联合国维和行动》,《国际问题研究》,2008年第3期,第42页。
④冷战后,联合国做出的9场武器禁运包括:1992—2001年针对利比里亚政府,1993—2002年针对安哥拉政府反政府武装(其间安哥拉发生两次冲突),1994—1995年针对卢旺达政府,1995—今针对卢旺达反政府武装,1997—1998年针对塞拉利昂政府,1998—2001年对南斯拉夫政府,2000—2002年针对阿富汗塔利班组织,2001—2003针对利比里亚政府;联合国实施的7场经济制裁包括:1991—2001年的对南联盟,1992—1998年对利比里亚的制裁,1993—2002年对安哥拉反政府武装(安盟)的制裁,1994—1995年对卢旺达的制裁,1997—2003年对塞拉利昂的制裁,1999—2002对阿富汗塔利班的制裁,2000—2006年对利比里亚的制裁。
①所谓线性关系是指(1)系统输出(output)的变化与输入(input)的变化是成比例的;(2)系统的两个输入之和所对应的输出等于单个输入所产生之输入的总和。转引自【美】罗伯特·杰维斯著:《系统效应:政治与社会生活中的复杂性》,李少军、杨少华、官志雄译,上海世纪出版集团2008年版,第37页。
②【美】罗伯特·杰维斯著:前引书,第3页。
①【美】罗伯特·杰维斯著:《系统效应:政治与社会生活中的复杂性》,李少军、杨少华、官志雄译,上海世纪出版集团2008年版,第42页。
②【美】罗伯特·杰维斯著:前引书,第38页。
③【俄】】B.M.库拉金著:《国际安全》,纽菊生、雷晓菊译,武汉大学出版社2009年版,第119页。
①张洁:《印尼亚齐问题政治和解的原因探析》,《当代亚太》,2007年第1期,第22页。
①徐绍丽:《印尼地区性动乱原因分析》,《当代亚太》,2000年第3期,第31页。
①张洁:《印尼亚齐问题政治和解的原因探析》,《当代亚太》,2007年第1期,第28页。
②“Armed Conflict and Peace Agreements.”Journal of Peace Research 43(5), the UCDP Peace Agreement Dataset.
①William Tordoff, Government and Politics in Africa (Second Edition), the Macmillan Press Ltd, 1993, p.174.转引自贺文萍著:《非洲国家民主化进程比较研究》,北京:时事出版社2005年版,第142页。
②【美】罗伯逊:《民主政体及其形成条件》,陈于后、阮良能译,《国外社会科学文摘》,1989年第4期,第40—42页。
①利比里亚国内冲突进程参考了李文刚编著:《列国志:利比里亚》,北京:社会科学文献出版社2006年版, 第二章第三节。
①以上内容参考吴华、王昉、周定湘主编:《全球冲突与争端》,(非洲·综合卷),北京:世界知识出版社1998年版,第29页。
②罗建波:《西共体在利比里亚的维和行动反思》,《西亚非洲》,2002年第2期,第32页。
③http://cn.io.gov.mo/Legis/International/record/511.aspx
①以上内容参考吴华、王昉、周定湘主编:《全球冲突与争端》,(非洲·综合卷),北京:世界知识出版社1998 年版,第30页。
①王志平主编:《硝烟中的沉思:当代世界武装冲突中的民族宗教问题研究》,北京:中国社会科学出版社2003年版,第3页。
②参考肖勤:《车臣问题的来龙去脉》,《国际资料信息》,2001年第8期,第1—2页。
③Graham Smith: Nationalities Policy from Lenin to Gorbachev, The Nationalities Question in the Soviet Union, Longman London and New York, 1990, p.7.
④参考李华:《俄罗斯车臣恐怖主义产生的根源》,《东北亚论坛》,2005年第3期,第56页。
①丁佩华:《车臣民族问题论析》,《世界民族》,2002年第6期,第31页。
②参考陈延琪、胡红萍著:《车臣跨世纪的反恐战争》,乌鲁木齐:新疆人民出版社2004年版,第三章。
①百度百科:《第一次车臣战争》,http://baike.baidu.com/view/350909.htm
②参见中国现代国际关系研究所民族与宗教研究中心著:《全球民族问题大聚焦》,北京:时事出版社2001年版,第222页。
③李华:《俄罗斯车臣恐怖主义产生的根源》,《东北亚论坛》,2005年第3期,第54页。
①赵龙庚:《从世界民族分裂主义看车臣危机》,《东欧中亚研究》,2002年第2期,第21页。
②由于第一次车臣冲突发生过程中并没有明显的外部正规力量支持和介入,在冲突解决中也没有外部的斡旋、调停和制裁等,因此,本文第四章的表格中认为在车臣冲突解决中没有第三方介入。但并不是说冲突中完全没有外部资金、技术和舆论等的影响,在全球化之外,任何冲突都不能绝对与外部世界隔绝开来。
③侯艾君:《车臣问题与外部因素》,《俄罗斯研究》,2005年第2期,第42页。
④何明远:《统一没商量》,北京:国防大学出版社2001年版,第54页。
⑤赵龙庚:《车臣问题的历史沿革》,载于何希泉主编:《全球民族问题大聚焦》,北京:时事出版社2001年版,第222页。
①参考【美】罗伯特·杰维斯著:《系统效应:政治与社会生活中的复杂性》,李少军、杨少华、官志雄译,上海世纪出版集团2008年版,第37-38页。
②Paul Collier, Anke Hoeffler and M?ns S?derbom,“On the Duration of Civil War,”Journal of Peace Research, Vol.41, No.3, (May, 2004), p.266.
③参考Le Billon, Philippe; Jake Sherman & Marcia Hartwell,“Controlling Resource Flows to Civil Wars: A Review and Analysis of Current Policies and Legal Instruments,”New York: International Peace Academy, 2002.
④参考《从血腥走向和平——钻石业为非洲冲突地区带来曙光》,http://www.21gem.com/news/10904.html.
①张洁:《印尼亚齐问题政治和解的原因探析》,《当代亚太》,2007年第1期,第26页。
②所谓“蝴蝶效应”,是指一件表面上看来毫无关系、非常微小的事情,但却可能带来巨大的改变。美国气象学家洛伦兹(Lorenz)1979年在一次演讲中提出了这种说法。他说,一只南美洲亚马逊河流域热带雨林中的蝴蝶,偶尔扇动几下翅膀,可以在两周后引起美国德克萨斯州的一场龙卷风,原因在于蝴蝶扇动翅膀,导致了周边空气系统的变化,产生微弱气流,微弱的气流进而又引起四周空气和其他系统的变化,产生连锁反应,进而导致空气的极大变化。
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国际战略研究所http://acd.iiss.org/armedconflict/MainPages/dsp_WorldMap.asp
加拿大的犁铧项目http://www.ploughshares.ca/
乌普萨拉大学冲突数据库(UCDP):http://www.ucdp.uu.se/gpdatabase/search.php
战争关联数据库(COW): http://www.correlatesofwar.org/
系统和平研究中心(CSP):http://www.systemicpeace.org/
奥斯陆国际和平研究所(PRIO):http://www.prio.no/
国际发展与冲突管理中心(CIDCM)http://www.cidcm.umd.edu/
斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所(SIPRI)http://www.sipri.org/
德国海德堡国际冲突研究所(HIIK)http://www.hiik.de/en/index.html