甘肃省金融发展对经济增长的传导机制研究
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摘要
我国目前正处在转变经济发展方式和深化金融体系改革的关键阶段,准确理解金融发展对经济增长的作用与传导机制能有效地通过余融体系的完善推动经济增长与结构转型。另外,我国区域经济发展不均衡,地区间的经济和金融发展都存在很大的差异,甘肃作为西部欠发达地区省份之一,与东部经济发达省份相比存在一定的差距。如何协调好区域金融与区域经济的良性发展、充分发挥金融在推动地区经济增长中的积极作用成为一项值得重视和研究的理论课题。因此,有必要深入挖掘金融发展影响经济增长的内在传导机制,以实现金融发展对经济增长的长期持续推动。
本文首先使用归纳和对比方法总结了理论研究中关于金融发展理论的一般内涵和经济增长理论中的金融过程。其次,在拓展了金融发展的具体内涵和分析经济理论模型后,构建了度量经济增长、金融发展的系列指标。最后,本文进入了实证分析部分,先是对金融发展和经济增长的关系进行实证检验,发现两者之间具有显著的相关性和因果关系,金融发展规模对经济增长起到了显著的正向推动作用；然后将经济增长源泉分解为物质资本、人力资本和全要素生产率三部分,并对金融通过上述三个渠道对经济增长的影响进行分析。
通过对以上内容的深入研究,得出以下结论：
第一,甘肃省的金融发展规模、金融发展效率与经济增长之间存在着长期稳定的关系。金融发展规模与经济增长显著正相关且起到了单向的推动作用,这在理论上验证了Patrick关于“在经济发展的早期阶段,金融部门通过金融机构和金融服务的扩张来促进经济增长”的假说。
第二,短期内经济增长对金融规模的冲击响应为正向且较为明显,说明金融规模的扩大会加速经济增长；而甘肃经济增长对余融中介效率的冲击响应为负且不显著,说明可能是由于投资的资本边际产出降低甚至为负,也即投资效率低下造成了反向冲击反应模式。
第三,甘肃省的经济增长依靠物质资本的大量投入,同时人力资本和全要素生产率对经济增长具有不可替代的正效应。物质资本、人力资本和全要素生产率对甘肃省经济增长均有显著的正向影响。
第四,甘肃省金融发展不仅通过传统的资本积累途径,还通过全要素生产率增长机制对本地经济的长期增长产生显著的促进作用。金融规模指标对物质资本积累、人力资本和全要素生产率均产生显著的正面单向的Granger影响,这意味着金融发展可以通过这三个渠道来促进本地经济的长期稳定增长。
本文可能的创新点如下：
第一,综合考虑金融主要支柱产业并构建计量模型探讨金融发展对经济增长的传导机制。现有文献较多将银行业、证券业和保险业独立起来研究其对经济增长的促进作用,而且以研究银行业居多,鲜有文献将三者综合起来考虑。本文的研究弥补了这一不足,将三者联立构建金融发展指标和计量模型,分析三者之间的协同效应及其对经济增长的促进作用。
第二,结合甘肃区域性特征,构建VAR计量模型,探讨甘肃金融发展与经济增长的相关和因果关系。我国各地区经济金融发展存在非均衡性,金融发展与经济增长的关系表现出显著的区域性差异,过于宏观研究会带来模型稳定性测试低通过率问题。鉴于此,本文区别于以往对整个国家层面或是东、中、西部层面的研究,采用甘肃1978-2011年的数据,通过建立VAR模型对金融发展与经济增长的关系进行实证分析,增强了研究的针对性和实用性。
第三,在测算经济增长源泉的基础上,从内生经济增长理论的视角,探讨甘肃经济增长的内生机制。对金融发展和经济增长之间的关系进行直接研究不能发掘其传导机制的内部结构,而本文在对资本存量、人力资本和全要素生产率等经济增长源泉测算的基础上,构建金融贡献率等金融发展的衡量指标,从内生经济增长理论的视角,采用间接法进行研究,从而探析金融发展进程影响经济增长的多重机制及其内部结构过程。
第四,结合研究结论提出进一步提升金融支持经济发展效率的对策建议。结合本文的实证分析成果和甘肃经济金融环境的区域性特征,本文从扩大金融资产规模、优化银行业市场结构和资本市场结构、推出多样化金融工具、推进金融组织体系创新和制度创新等方面提出进一步提高余融资源配置效率、促进甘肃经济增长具有较强针对性和可操作性的对策建议。
At present China is in the key stage of the transformation of economic development mode and deepening the reform of the financial system. An accurate understanding the action and the transmission mechanism that financial development increases to economy is conducive to effectively promote economic growth and structural transformation through the financial system. In addition, China's regional economic development is very uneven, and there are significant differences between different regions in economic and financial development.Gansu province is one of the less developed western regions, and there is a gap compared with the developed eastern provinces. How to coordinate the regional finance and the sound development of the regional economy, and display the positive effect of finance for patronizing regional economic growth become a theoretical topic worthy of attention and study. Therefore, it is very necessary to study the internal transmission mechanism of financial development which affects economic growth, so that finance can incessantly improve economic development in the long term.
Firstly, this paper summarizes the normal intensions about financial development theory in the theoretical study and the financial process in the theory of economic growth through inductive and comparative methods, induction and contrast. Secondly, after expanding the concrete intension and analyzing the models of economic theory, this paper constructs a series of indicators to measure economic growth and financial development. Finally, this thesis goes into the empirical analysis. Through the direct empirical test of the relationship between financial development and economic growth at first, a significant correlation and causal relationship can be found between them. The scale of financial development plays a significant positive role in promoting economic growth.
Then the source of economic growth is decomposed into three parts:material capital, human capital and total factor productivity, and the effects of financial development on economic growth through the three canals above will be analysed. Through thorough analyse of above-mentioned contents, appropriate conclusions can be made as follows:
Firstly, there is a long-term stable relationship between financial development scale, efficiency and economic growth in Gansu province. The scale of financial development is significantly positively correlated to economic growth and plays a one-way role. This has (?)estified theoretically the Patrick-Hypothesis:At the early stage of economic growth tinancial sector promote economic growth through expanding financial institutions and financial service.
Secondly, the impulse of economic growth on financial scale in the short term is positive and significant, which shows that the enlargement of financial scale will accelerate economic growth in Gansu province. The impulse of economic growth on the efficiency of financial intermediation is negative and not significant, which shows that capital marginal output decreases and even is minus (negative), namely the deficiency of investing efficiency has caused an opposite impulse reaction model.
Thirdly, the economic growth in Gansu province depends on numerous use of material capital. At the same time, human capital and total factor productivity have the disreplaceable positive effect on the economic growth. Material capital, human capital and total factor productivity have significantly positive effect on the economic growth in Gansu province.
Fourthly, financial development plays a significant role in promoting long-term growth through not only the traditional capital accumulation ways but also the total factor productivity growth mechanism for the local economy in Gansu. Financial scale indexes makes significant positive effects of unidirectional Granger on material capital accumulation, human capital and total factor productivity, which means that financial development can steadily promote local economic growth through these channels in the long term.
Some potential innovations in this paper are as follows:
Firstly, finance is taken into account widely as a major pillar industry and econometric model is constructed to deal with the transmission effect of financial development to economic growth. Most current literatures isolate banking from securities and insurance industries, and deal with enhancement of them for economic growth. They pay more attention to the study of the banking. There is rare literature, which take the three factors into account widely. This paper makes up for this shortcoming, and builds financial development indicators and econometric models through combining these three factors, and analysis the synergistic effects on promoting economic growth.
Secondly, in combination with regional characteristics of Gansu province, the VAR-model is constructed to research the correlation and causality between financial development and economic growth. The economic and financial development in different regions in China is unbalanced. Too much macro study will bring about low passing rate of test of model stability. In view of this, different from the previous study on the level of the nation or of the east, middle and west in China, this paper has adopted data from1978to2011in Gansu and established VAR model for empirical analysis of the relationship between financial development and economic growth, which enhance the pertinence and practicability of research.
Thirdly, on the basis of measuring of economic growth source, this paper inquiry into internal mechanism of economic growth in Gansu from the perspective of endogenous growth theory. Direct study on the relationship between financial and economic growth can not found the interior structure of transmission mechanism between them. On the basis of measuring of economic growth resources such as material capital deposit, human capital and total factor productivity, this paper designe indicators of financial developmen such as financial contribution rate from the aspect of endogenous growth theory. An indirect method will be brought into study and financial development process will be analysed, which takes effect on multiple mechanism and its internal structure process of economic growth.
Fourthly, combined with study conclusions, this paper puts forward suggestions and countermeasures which support economic development and further improve the efficiency of financial. According to the characteristics of the regional empirical analysis results and the environment of economic and financial, this article makes suggestions with higher appropriateness and pertinence to improve allocative efficiency of financial resources and to promote economic growth in Gansu from some aspects below:enlarging financial capital scale, optimizing banking and capital market structure, introducing multifarious financial instruments, furthering innovation of financial institutions and system, etc.
本文首先使用归纳和对比方法总结了理论研究中关于金融发展理论的一般内涵和经济增长理论中的金融过程。其次,在拓展了金融发展的具体内涵和分析经济理论模型后,构建了度量经济增长、金融发展的系列指标。最后,本文进入了实证分析部分,先是对金融发展和经济增长的关系进行实证检验,发现两者之间具有显著的相关性和因果关系,金融发展规模对经济增长起到了显著的正向推动作用；然后将经济增长源泉分解为物质资本、人力资本和全要素生产率三部分,并对金融通过上述三个渠道对经济增长的影响进行分析。
通过对以上内容的深入研究,得出以下结论：
第一,甘肃省的金融发展规模、金融发展效率与经济增长之间存在着长期稳定的关系。金融发展规模与经济增长显著正相关且起到了单向的推动作用,这在理论上验证了Patrick关于“在经济发展的早期阶段,金融部门通过金融机构和金融服务的扩张来促进经济增长”的假说。
第二,短期内经济增长对金融规模的冲击响应为正向且较为明显,说明金融规模的扩大会加速经济增长；而甘肃经济增长对余融中介效率的冲击响应为负且不显著,说明可能是由于投资的资本边际产出降低甚至为负,也即投资效率低下造成了反向冲击反应模式。
第三,甘肃省的经济增长依靠物质资本的大量投入,同时人力资本和全要素生产率对经济增长具有不可替代的正效应。物质资本、人力资本和全要素生产率对甘肃省经济增长均有显著的正向影响。
第四,甘肃省金融发展不仅通过传统的资本积累途径,还通过全要素生产率增长机制对本地经济的长期增长产生显著的促进作用。金融规模指标对物质资本积累、人力资本和全要素生产率均产生显著的正面单向的Granger影响,这意味着金融发展可以通过这三个渠道来促进本地经济的长期稳定增长。
本文可能的创新点如下：
第一,综合考虑金融主要支柱产业并构建计量模型探讨金融发展对经济增长的传导机制。现有文献较多将银行业、证券业和保险业独立起来研究其对经济增长的促进作用,而且以研究银行业居多,鲜有文献将三者综合起来考虑。本文的研究弥补了这一不足,将三者联立构建金融发展指标和计量模型,分析三者之间的协同效应及其对经济增长的促进作用。
第二,结合甘肃区域性特征,构建VAR计量模型,探讨甘肃金融发展与经济增长的相关和因果关系。我国各地区经济金融发展存在非均衡性,金融发展与经济增长的关系表现出显著的区域性差异,过于宏观研究会带来模型稳定性测试低通过率问题。鉴于此,本文区别于以往对整个国家层面或是东、中、西部层面的研究,采用甘肃1978-2011年的数据,通过建立VAR模型对金融发展与经济增长的关系进行实证分析,增强了研究的针对性和实用性。
第三,在测算经济增长源泉的基础上,从内生经济增长理论的视角,探讨甘肃经济增长的内生机制。对金融发展和经济增长之间的关系进行直接研究不能发掘其传导机制的内部结构,而本文在对资本存量、人力资本和全要素生产率等经济增长源泉测算的基础上,构建金融贡献率等金融发展的衡量指标,从内生经济增长理论的视角,采用间接法进行研究,从而探析金融发展进程影响经济增长的多重机制及其内部结构过程。
第四,结合研究结论提出进一步提升金融支持经济发展效率的对策建议。结合本文的实证分析成果和甘肃经济金融环境的区域性特征,本文从扩大金融资产规模、优化银行业市场结构和资本市场结构、推出多样化金融工具、推进金融组织体系创新和制度创新等方面提出进一步提高余融资源配置效率、促进甘肃经济增长具有较强针对性和可操作性的对策建议。
At present China is in the key stage of the transformation of economic development mode and deepening the reform of the financial system. An accurate understanding the action and the transmission mechanism that financial development increases to economy is conducive to effectively promote economic growth and structural transformation through the financial system. In addition, China's regional economic development is very uneven, and there are significant differences between different regions in economic and financial development.Gansu province is one of the less developed western regions, and there is a gap compared with the developed eastern provinces. How to coordinate the regional finance and the sound development of the regional economy, and display the positive effect of finance for patronizing regional economic growth become a theoretical topic worthy of attention and study. Therefore, it is very necessary to study the internal transmission mechanism of financial development which affects economic growth, so that finance can incessantly improve economic development in the long term.
Firstly, this paper summarizes the normal intensions about financial development theory in the theoretical study and the financial process in the theory of economic growth through inductive and comparative methods, induction and contrast. Secondly, after expanding the concrete intension and analyzing the models of economic theory, this paper constructs a series of indicators to measure economic growth and financial development. Finally, this thesis goes into the empirical analysis. Through the direct empirical test of the relationship between financial development and economic growth at first, a significant correlation and causal relationship can be found between them. The scale of financial development plays a significant positive role in promoting economic growth.
Then the source of economic growth is decomposed into three parts:material capital, human capital and total factor productivity, and the effects of financial development on economic growth through the three canals above will be analysed. Through thorough analyse of above-mentioned contents, appropriate conclusions can be made as follows:
Firstly, there is a long-term stable relationship between financial development scale, efficiency and economic growth in Gansu province. The scale of financial development is significantly positively correlated to economic growth and plays a one-way role. This has (?)estified theoretically the Patrick-Hypothesis:At the early stage of economic growth tinancial sector promote economic growth through expanding financial institutions and financial service.
Secondly, the impulse of economic growth on financial scale in the short term is positive and significant, which shows that the enlargement of financial scale will accelerate economic growth in Gansu province. The impulse of economic growth on the efficiency of financial intermediation is negative and not significant, which shows that capital marginal output decreases and even is minus (negative), namely the deficiency of investing efficiency has caused an opposite impulse reaction model.
Thirdly, the economic growth in Gansu province depends on numerous use of material capital. At the same time, human capital and total factor productivity have the disreplaceable positive effect on the economic growth. Material capital, human capital and total factor productivity have significantly positive effect on the economic growth in Gansu province.
Fourthly, financial development plays a significant role in promoting long-term growth through not only the traditional capital accumulation ways but also the total factor productivity growth mechanism for the local economy in Gansu. Financial scale indexes makes significant positive effects of unidirectional Granger on material capital accumulation, human capital and total factor productivity, which means that financial development can steadily promote local economic growth through these channels in the long term.
Some potential innovations in this paper are as follows:
Firstly, finance is taken into account widely as a major pillar industry and econometric model is constructed to deal with the transmission effect of financial development to economic growth. Most current literatures isolate banking from securities and insurance industries, and deal with enhancement of them for economic growth. They pay more attention to the study of the banking. There is rare literature, which take the three factors into account widely. This paper makes up for this shortcoming, and builds financial development indicators and econometric models through combining these three factors, and analysis the synergistic effects on promoting economic growth.
Secondly, in combination with regional characteristics of Gansu province, the VAR-model is constructed to research the correlation and causality between financial development and economic growth. The economic and financial development in different regions in China is unbalanced. Too much macro study will bring about low passing rate of test of model stability. In view of this, different from the previous study on the level of the nation or of the east, middle and west in China, this paper has adopted data from1978to2011in Gansu and established VAR model for empirical analysis of the relationship between financial development and economic growth, which enhance the pertinence and practicability of research.
Thirdly, on the basis of measuring of economic growth source, this paper inquiry into internal mechanism of economic growth in Gansu from the perspective of endogenous growth theory. Direct study on the relationship between financial and economic growth can not found the interior structure of transmission mechanism between them. On the basis of measuring of economic growth resources such as material capital deposit, human capital and total factor productivity, this paper designe indicators of financial developmen such as financial contribution rate from the aspect of endogenous growth theory. An indirect method will be brought into study and financial development process will be analysed, which takes effect on multiple mechanism and its internal structure process of economic growth.
Fourthly, combined with study conclusions, this paper puts forward suggestions and countermeasures which support economic development and further improve the efficiency of financial. According to the characteristics of the regional empirical analysis results and the environment of economic and financial, this article makes suggestions with higher appropriateness and pertinence to improve allocative efficiency of financial resources and to promote economic growth in Gansu from some aspects below:enlarging financial capital scale, optimizing banking and capital market structure, introducing multifarious financial instruments, furthering innovation of financial institutions and system, etc.
引文
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