旅游CGE系统开发及应用
|
摘要
目前,CGE在国外旅游研究中已经得到大量运用,旅游CGE分析有助于厘清旅游活动与旅游业的影响因素,明确旅游活动与旅游业的重要作用。可是,CGE分析在我国旅游研究中基本处于空白状态,鉴于国内CGE分析在其它研究领域已有相当的应用成果与经验,本文选择旅游CGE分析为研究工具,探讨中国旅游经济影响的各个方面,全文共分六章。
第一章阐述了旅游经济影响的三个基本问题,梳理了国外旅游CGE分析的发展历程,以及国内旅游经济影响分析的现状,结合目前国际旅游CGE分析的热点问题,确立了本文的研究目标与内容结构。
第二章简述了一般均衡理论的发展,以及另外两种一般均衡分析工具：IO分析与SAM,并介绍了CGE模型在国际与国内的研究应用进展。在详细介绍CGE模型的一般结构、闭合条件与求解技术的基础上,设计了中国旅游CGE模型的基本结构、闭合条件,以及旅游消费方程的引入,并在完成模型构建后对其进行了线性化处理。
第三章详细阐述了旅游IO表、宏观SAM的编制过程,提供了所需的统计数据来源、编制与配平方法,以及配平实现代码。此外,基于中国旅游IO表开展了IO分析,运用面板数据对模型旅游消费参数进行回归估计,并分析了不同收入水平对旅游消费的影响。在该章完成了旅游CGE模型求解所需的初始值与参数。
第四章在旅游CGE系统用户需求分析的基础上,设计了合适的系统结构、人机交互界面,以及各种功能模块。系统开发过程使用了面向对象的编程技术,在Visual Studio开发环境中运用Visual C++,利用Windows窗口编程技术,算法求解采用经典的高斯全主元消去法,实现了旅游CGE系统的开发。
第五章根据研究目标设定了模拟情景,运行旅游CGE系统得到模拟结果。模拟结果表明,政府减免农村居民与城镇居民的所得税,增加对他们的转移支付将有利于提升消费与旅游消费,并且政府应适当加大对农村居民的减税与转移支付比例。国际旅游外汇收入增长会从初级产品、中间需求、产品价格等方面促进我国经济结构的优化；国内旅游发展对经济增长的影响是多方面的,各产业受到的影响不尽相同；虽然入境旅游、国内旅游对农村居民与城镇居民在就业、收入与消费等方面的影响存在差异,但总体上看,旅游发展有助于缩小我国城乡差距,为消除贫困带来积极作用。2008全球金融经济危机对旅游的负面影响会扩展到对我国经济的诸多方面,但是城镇居民的劳动报酬与可自由支配收入反而会略微上升。
第六章对全文进行了总结,对旅游CGE系统的优化方向,即旅游CGE模型的改进与动态化作了展望。
CGE analysis has already become the useful method in tourism research, which is helpful in the definition of the influencing factor and the influential role of tourism. But, the CGE analysis which has the suitable achievement and the experience in other research area is seldom used in the tourism research of domestic, so this dissertation chooses the CGE analysis to discuss the China tourism economic impact from several aspect, the full text is organized in six chapters.
The first chapter elaborates the three basic questions of tourism economic impact, reviews the tourism CGE analysis development, as well as the domestic tourism economic impact analysis, then establishes the research aims and the content structure.
The second chapter has summarized the general equilibrium theory development, as well as general equilibrium analysis tools:The IO analysis and SAM, and introduced the CGE model in international and the domestic research filed. Based on the basic structure, the closure theory, and the solution technology of the CGE model, China tourism CGE model has designed and includes tourism expense equation. In order to solve the model we made the equations of the model linear.
The third chapter establish IO table and SAM, also provides the original statistical data, the establishment and the balancing method, and the code for balancing. In addition, has launched the IO analysis based on the China tourism IO table, carried on the regression estimate the tourism expense parameter with panel data model, and analyzed the tourism demand according to the different income level. Parameter and variable are the basic elements of the model, which estimated with the methods of econometrics and calibration.
The fourth chapter analysis the demand of the China tourism CGE system user, then designs the system structure, Graphical User Interface, as well as the functional module. The system developed by the object-oriented programming technology and the Windows Forms technology, using Visual C++program language in Visual Studio, and coding the Gauss Elimination as the algorithm solution.
The fifth chapter sets the simulation scenes according to the research aim and uses the CTCGE system to make the results. The results indicated that the government could promote expends of the urban and the rural residents by reducing personal income tax or increasing transfer payment, as well as promote expends travel and tour expends, and the government should reduce tax rate of the rural resident or increase the proportion of transfer payment to the rural resident. The growth of the international foreign exchange earnings from tourism could help the optimization of the economic structure through the influence on the primary product, the middle demand, the product price and so on. The influence on economic growth from the domestic tourism development is various and complexity. Although inbound tourism, domestic tourism has different influence on the urban resident and urban resident, such as on employment, income and expense, the tourism development is helpful in reducing disparity between the urban and urban resident, playing the positive role for the eliminating poverty. The 2008 global financial crisis which has negative influences to the economy increases the income of urban resident somehow.
The sixth chapter carries on the summary to the full text, and offers the ameliorator of the thesis.
第一章阐述了旅游经济影响的三个基本问题,梳理了国外旅游CGE分析的发展历程,以及国内旅游经济影响分析的现状,结合目前国际旅游CGE分析的热点问题,确立了本文的研究目标与内容结构。
第二章简述了一般均衡理论的发展,以及另外两种一般均衡分析工具：IO分析与SAM,并介绍了CGE模型在国际与国内的研究应用进展。在详细介绍CGE模型的一般结构、闭合条件与求解技术的基础上,设计了中国旅游CGE模型的基本结构、闭合条件,以及旅游消费方程的引入,并在完成模型构建后对其进行了线性化处理。
第三章详细阐述了旅游IO表、宏观SAM的编制过程,提供了所需的统计数据来源、编制与配平方法,以及配平实现代码。此外,基于中国旅游IO表开展了IO分析,运用面板数据对模型旅游消费参数进行回归估计,并分析了不同收入水平对旅游消费的影响。在该章完成了旅游CGE模型求解所需的初始值与参数。
第四章在旅游CGE系统用户需求分析的基础上,设计了合适的系统结构、人机交互界面,以及各种功能模块。系统开发过程使用了面向对象的编程技术,在Visual Studio开发环境中运用Visual C++,利用Windows窗口编程技术,算法求解采用经典的高斯全主元消去法,实现了旅游CGE系统的开发。
第五章根据研究目标设定了模拟情景,运行旅游CGE系统得到模拟结果。模拟结果表明,政府减免农村居民与城镇居民的所得税,增加对他们的转移支付将有利于提升消费与旅游消费,并且政府应适当加大对农村居民的减税与转移支付比例。国际旅游外汇收入增长会从初级产品、中间需求、产品价格等方面促进我国经济结构的优化；国内旅游发展对经济增长的影响是多方面的,各产业受到的影响不尽相同；虽然入境旅游、国内旅游对农村居民与城镇居民在就业、收入与消费等方面的影响存在差异,但总体上看,旅游发展有助于缩小我国城乡差距,为消除贫困带来积极作用。2008全球金融经济危机对旅游的负面影响会扩展到对我国经济的诸多方面,但是城镇居民的劳动报酬与可自由支配收入反而会略微上升。
第六章对全文进行了总结,对旅游CGE系统的优化方向,即旅游CGE模型的改进与动态化作了展望。
CGE analysis has already become the useful method in tourism research, which is helpful in the definition of the influencing factor and the influential role of tourism. But, the CGE analysis which has the suitable achievement and the experience in other research area is seldom used in the tourism research of domestic, so this dissertation chooses the CGE analysis to discuss the China tourism economic impact from several aspect, the full text is organized in six chapters.
The first chapter elaborates the three basic questions of tourism economic impact, reviews the tourism CGE analysis development, as well as the domestic tourism economic impact analysis, then establishes the research aims and the content structure.
The second chapter has summarized the general equilibrium theory development, as well as general equilibrium analysis tools:The IO analysis and SAM, and introduced the CGE model in international and the domestic research filed. Based on the basic structure, the closure theory, and the solution technology of the CGE model, China tourism CGE model has designed and includes tourism expense equation. In order to solve the model we made the equations of the model linear.
The third chapter establish IO table and SAM, also provides the original statistical data, the establishment and the balancing method, and the code for balancing. In addition, has launched the IO analysis based on the China tourism IO table, carried on the regression estimate the tourism expense parameter with panel data model, and analyzed the tourism demand according to the different income level. Parameter and variable are the basic elements of the model, which estimated with the methods of econometrics and calibration.
The fourth chapter analysis the demand of the China tourism CGE system user, then designs the system structure, Graphical User Interface, as well as the functional module. The system developed by the object-oriented programming technology and the Windows Forms technology, using Visual C++program language in Visual Studio, and coding the Gauss Elimination as the algorithm solution.
The fifth chapter sets the simulation scenes according to the research aim and uses the CTCGE system to make the results. The results indicated that the government could promote expends of the urban and the rural residents by reducing personal income tax or increasing transfer payment, as well as promote expends travel and tour expends, and the government should reduce tax rate of the rural resident or increase the proportion of transfer payment to the rural resident. The growth of the international foreign exchange earnings from tourism could help the optimization of the economic structure through the influence on the primary product, the middle demand, the product price and so on. The influence on economic growth from the domestic tourism development is various and complexity. Although inbound tourism, domestic tourism has different influence on the urban resident and urban resident, such as on employment, income and expense, the tourism development is helpful in reducing disparity between the urban and urban resident, playing the positive role for the eliminating poverty. The 2008 global financial crisis which has negative influences to the economy increases the income of urban resident somehow.
The sixth chapter carries on the summary to the full text, and offers the ameliorator of the thesis.
引文
1 Adams P. D. and Parmenter B. R.,1991, The Medium Term Significance of International Tourism for the Australian Economy. Canberra:Bureau of Tourism Research.
2 Adams P. D. and Parmenter B. R.,1992, The Medium Term Significance of International Tourism for the Australian Economy. Canberra:Bureau of Tourism Research.
3 Adams P. D. and Parmenter B. R.,1995, An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis of the Economic Effects of Tourism in a Quite Small, Quite Open Economy, Applied Economics,27(10):985-994.
4 Adelman I. A., Berck P. and Vujovic D.,1991, Using Social Accounting Matrices to Account for Distortions in Non-Market Economies, Economic Systems Research,3(3):269-298.
5 Adelman I. and Obinson S.,1978, Income Distribution Policy in Developing Countries:A Case Study of Korea. Oxford University Press.
6 Alavalapati J. R. R. and Adamowicz W. L.,2000, Tourism Impact Modeling for Resource Extraction Regions, Annals of Tourism Research,27(1):188-202.
7 Archer B.,1995, Importance of Tourism for the Economy of Bermuda, Annals of Tourism Research, 22(4):918-930.
8 Armington P. S.,1969, A Theory of Demand for Products Distinguished by Place of Production, International Monetary Fund Staff Papers,16:159-176.
9 Arrow K. J.,1951, Social Choice and Individual Values. Wiley&Sons.
10 Arrow K. J. and Debreu G.,1954, Existence of Equilibrium for a Competitive Economy, Econometrica,22(265-290).
11 Azis I. J.,2000, Stimulation Economy-Wide Models to Capture the Transition From Financial Crisis to Social Crisis, The Annals of Regional Science,34:251-278.
12 Ballard C. L., Fullerton D., Shoven J. B. and Whalley J.,1985,A General Equilibrium Model for Tax Policy Evaluation. University of Chicago Press for the National Bureau of Economic Research.
13 Ballard and Fullerton D.,1992, Distortionary Taxes and the Provision of Public Goods, Journal of Economic Perspectives,6:117-131.
14 Bandara J.,1991, Computable General Equilibrium Models for Development Policy Analysis in Ldcs, Journal of Economic Surveys,5:3-69.
15 Baster J.,1980, Input-Output Analysis of Tourism Benefits:Lessons from Scotland, International Journal of Tourism Management,1(2):99-108.
16 Berrittella M., Bigano A., Roson R. and Tol R. S. J.,2006, A General Equilibrium Analysis of Climate Change Impacts On Tourism, Tourism Management,27(5):913-924.
17 Bigano A., Bosello F., Roson R. and Tol R.,2008, Economy-Wide Impacts of Climate Change:A Joint Analysis for Sea Level Rise and Tourism, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change,13(8):765-791.
18 Blake A.,2005, The Economic Impact of the London 2012 Olympics,2005. TTRI discussion paper.
19 Blake A.,2008, Tourism and Economics:Not Just a Numbers Game, Not Just Impacts, Bournemouth University,2008.
20 Blake A.,2008, Tourism and Income Distribution in East Africa, International Journal of Tourism Research,10(6):511-524.
21 Blake A. and Sinclair M. T.,2003, Tourism Crisis Management:Us Response to September 11, Annals of Tourism Research,30(4):813-832.
22 Blake A., Arbache J. S., Sinclair M. T. and Teles V.,2008, Tourism and Poverty Relief, Annals of Tourism Research,35(1):107-126.
23 Blake A., Durbarry R., Eugenio-Martin J. L., Gooroochurn N., Hay B., Lennon J., Thea Sinclair M., Sugiyarto G. and Yeoman I.,2006, Integrating Forecasting and Cge Models:The Case of Tourism in Scotland, Tourism Management,27(2):292-305.
24 Blake A., Sinclair M. T. and Soria J. A. C.,2006, Tourism Productivity:Evidence from the United Kingdom, Annals of Tourism Research,33(4):1099-1120.
25 Blake A., Sinclair M. T. and Sugiyarto G.,2003, Quantifying the Impact of Foot and Mouth Disease On Tourism and the Uk Economy, Tourism Economics,9:449-465.
26 Bohlmann H. R. and Van Heerden J. H.,2008, Predicting the Economic Impact of the 2010 Fifa World Cup On South Africa, International Journal of Sport Management and Marketing,3: 383-396.
27 Brau R., Lanza A. and Pigliaru F.,2007, How Fast are Small Tourism Countries Growing? Evidence From the Data for 1980-2003, Tourism Economics,13:603-614.
28 Briassoulis H.,1991, Methodological Issues:Tourism Input-Output Analysis, Annals of Tourism Research,18(3):485-495.
29 Castellani V., Sala S. and Pitea D.,2007, A New Method for Tourism Carrying Capacity Assessment, Ecosystems and Sustainable Development Vi,106:365-374.
30 Chang S.,1996, The Effects of Economic Integration between North and South Korea:A Computable General Equilibrium.Dissertation, Northern Illinois University.
31 Coffman M.,2008, Oil Price Shocks in an Island Economy:An Analysis of the Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship, The Annals of Regional Science.
32 Cooper A. and Wilson A.,2002, Extending the Relevance of Tsa Research for the Uk:General Equilibrium and Spillover Analysis, Tourism Economics,8:7-37.
33 Dervis K., de Melo J. and Robinson S.,1982,General Equilibrium Models for Development Policy. Cambridge University Press.
34 Dewatripoint M. and Michel,1987, On Closure Rules, Homogeneity and Dynamics in Applied General Equilibrium Models, Journal of development economic,26:65-76.
35 Diao X. and Somwaru A.,2000, An Inquiry On General Equilibrium Effects of Mercosur-an Intertemporal World Model, Journal of Policy Modeling,22(5):557-588.
36 Dixon P. B. and Parmenter B. R.,1982, Orani:A Multisectoral Model of the Australia Economy. Amsterdam:North-Holland Press.
37 Dixon P. B. and Parmenter B. R.,1986,Orani Projections of the Short-Run Effects of a 50% Across-the-Board Cut in Protection Using Alternative Databases. in Srinivasan, T.N., Whalley, J. (eds.) General Equilibrium Trade Policy Modeling. Cambridge, MA:MIT Press.
38 Dixon P. B., Parmenter B. R. and Powell A. A.,1992, Notes and Problems in Applied General Equilibrium Economics. Amsterdam:North-Holland Press.
39 Dwyer L. and Forsyth P.,1993, Assessing the Benefits and Costs of Inbound Tourism, Annals of Tourism Research,20(4):751-768.
40 Dwyer L., Forsyth P. and Spurr R.,2003, Inter-Industry Effects of Tourism Growth:Implications for Destination Managers, Tourism Economics,9:117-132.
41 Dwyer L., Forsyth P. and Spurr R.,2004, Evaluating Tourism'S Economic Effects:New and Old Approaches, Tourism Management,25(3):307-317.
42 Dwyer L., Forsyth P. and Spurr R.,2006, Effects of the SARS Crisis On the Economic Contribution of Tourism to Australia, Tourism Review International,10:47-55.
43 Dwyer L., Forsyth P. and Spurr R.,2007, Contrasting the Uses of Tsas and Cge Models:Measuring Tourism Yield and Productivity, Tourism Economics,13:537-552.
44 Dwyer L., Forsyth P., Madden J. and Spurr R.,2000, Economic Impacts of Inbound Tourism Under Different Assumptions Regarding the Macroeconomy, Current Issues in Tourism,3(4):325-363.
45 Dwyer L., Forsyth P., Spurr R. and Vanho T.,2003, Tourisms Contribution to a State Economy:A Multi-Regional General Equilibrium Analysis, Tourism Economics,9:431-448.
46 Dwyer L., Forsyth P., Spurr R. and Vanho T.,2006, Economic Effects of the World Tourism Crisis On Australia, Tourism Economics,12:171-186.
47 Eilat P. and Einav L.,2004, Determinants of International Tourism:A Three-Dimensional Panel Data Analysis, Applied Economics,36(12):1315-1327.
48 Fisher T. C. G. and Waschik R. G.,2000, Union Bargaining Power, Relative Wages, and Efficiency in Canada, Canadian Journal of Economics,33(3):742-765.
49 Fletcher J. E.,1989, Input-Output Analysis and Tourism Impact Studies, Annals of Tourism Research,16(4):514-529.
50 Galinis A.,2000, A Cge Model for Lithuania:The Future of Nuclear Energy, Journal of Policy Modeling,22(6):691-718.
51 Garin-Muoz T.,2006, Inbound International Tourism to Canary Islands:A Dynamic Panel Data Model, Tourism Management,27(2):281-291.
52 Garin-Mu?oz T.,2008, Tourism in Galicia:Domestic and Foreign Demand, Tourism Economics, Forthcoming.
53 Gelan A.,2002, Trade Liberalization and Urban-Rural Linkages:A Cge Analysis for Ethiopia, Journal of Policy Modeling,24:707-738.
54 Ghosh M.,2002, The Revival of Regional Trade Arrangements:A Cge Evaluation of the Impact On Small Countries, Journal of Policy Modeling,24:83-101.
55 Giesecke J.,2002, Explaining Regional Economic Performance:An Historical Application of a Dynamic Multi-Regional Cge Model, Regional Science,81:247-278.
56 Gomez C. M., Lozano J. and Rey-Maquieira J.,2008, Environmental Policy and Long-Term Welfare in a Tourism Economy, Spanish Economic Review,10(1):41-62.
57 Gooroochurn N. and Milner G.,2005, Assessing Indirect Tax Reform in a Tourism-Dependent Developing Country, World Development,33(7):1183-1200.
58 Gooroochurn N. and Thea Sinclair M.,2005, Economics of Tourism Taxation:Evidence From Mauritius, Annals of Tourism Research,32(2):478-498.
59 Gottinger H. W.,1998, Greenhouse Gas Economics and Computable General Equilibrium, Journal of Policy Modeling,20(5):537-580.
60 Guzel H. A. and Kulshreshtha S. N.,1995, Effects of Real Exchange Rate Changes On Canadian Agriculture:A General Equilibrium Evaluation, Journal of Policy Modeling,17(6):639-657.
61 H S.,1967, The Approximation of Fixed Points of Continuous Mapping, Journal of Applied Mathematics,15(5):328-343.
62 Hanson K., Robinson S. and Schluter G.,1993, Sectoral Effects of a World Oil Price Shock: Economy-Wide Linkages to the Agricultural Sector, Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics,18(1):96-116.
63 Harberger A. C.,1994, The Incidence of Corporate Income Tax, Journal of Political Economy,70: 215-240.
64 Harris R. and Cox D.,1983, Trade, Industrial Policy and Canadian Manufacturing. Ontario:Ontario Economic Council.
65 Henry E. W. and Deane B.,1997, The Contribution of Tourism to the Economy of Ireland in 1990 and 1995, Tourism Management,18(8):535-553.
66 Hertel T. W. and Et A.,1996, Global Trade Analysis:Modeling and Application. Cambridge University Press.
67 Hertel T. and Horridge M.,1991, Mending the Family Tree:A Reconciliation of the Linear and Levels Schools of Cge Modelling, IMPACT preliminary working paper IP-54 June.
68 Ivanov S. and Webster C.,2007, Measuring the Impact of Tourism On Economic Growth, Tourism Economics,13:379-388.
69 Johansen,1960,A Multi-Sectoral Study of Economic Growth. Amsterdam:North-Holland Press.
70 Jones C. and Munday M.,2008, Tourism Satellite Accounts and Impact Assessments:Some Considerations, Tourism Analysis,13:53-69.
71 Jorgenson D. W. and Wilcoxen P. J.,1990, Ntertemporal General Equilibrium Modeling of U.S. Environmental Regulation, Journal of Policy Modeling,12:715-744.
72 Kehoe T. J., Polo C. and Sancho F.,1995, An Evaluation of the Performance of an Applied General Equilibrium Model of the Spanish Economy, Economic Theory,6(1):115-141.
73 Keller W. J.,1980, Tax Incidence:A General Equilibrium Approach. North-Holland Press.
74 Kenc T. and Sayan S.,2001, Demographic Shock Transmission from Large to Small Countries:An Overlapping Generations Cge Analysis, Journal of Policy Modeling,23:677-702.
75 Khorshid M.,1991, A Social-Accounting-Matrix-Based Long-Term Model for Gulf Cooperation Council Country:The Kuwaiti Case, Economic Systems Research,3(3):299-314.
76 Kim E. and Kim K.,2002, Impacts of Regional Development Strategies on Growth and Equity of Korea:A Multiregional Cge Model, The Annals of Regional Science,36:165-180.
77 Konan D. E. and Kim K.,2003, Transportation and Tourism in Hawaii-Computable General Equilibrium Model, Transportation Finance, Economics and Economic Development 2003, (1839): 142-149.
78 Kuo H. I., Chen C., Tseng W., Ju L. and Huang B.,2008, Assessing Impacts of SARS and Avian Flu On International Tourism Demand to Asia, Tourism Management,29(5):917-928.
79 Lim C. and Mcaleer M.,2002, Time Series Forecasts of International Travel Demand for Australia, Tourism Management,23(4):389-396.
80 Mabugu R.,2002, Short-Term Effects of Policy Reform On Tourism and the Macroeconomy in Zimbabwe:Applied Cge Analysis, Development Southern Africa,19:419-430.
81 Madsen B. and Jensen-Butler C.,2004, Theoretical and Operational Issues in Sub-Regional Economic Modelling, Illustrated through the Development and Application of the Line Model, Economic Modelling,21(3):471-508.
82 Madsen B., Jensen-Butler C. and Zhang J.,2003, Regional Economic Impacts of Traffic Regulation On Tourism:The Case of Denmark, Review Of Urban & Regional Development Studies,15: 148-169.
83 Manne A. S. and Preckel P.,1983, A Three-Region Inter-Temporal Model of Energy, International Trade, and Capital Flows, Operations research, Stanford University.
84 Mckenzie L. W.,1954, On Equilibrium in Graham'S Model of World Trade and Other Competitive Systems, Econometrica,22(147-161).
85 Melo D. J. and Tarr D.,1992, A General Equilibrium Analysis of Us Foreign Trade Policy. The MIT Press.
86 Narayan P. K.,2004, Economic Impact of Tourism On Fijis Economy:Empirical Evidence From the Computable General Equilibrium Model, Tourism Economics,10:419-433.
87 Oecd,1994, Green:The User Manual, Mimeo, Development Centre, Oecd, Paris.
88 Pambudi D., Mccaughey N. and Smyth R.,2009, Computable General Equilibrium Estimates of the Impact of the Bali Bombing On the Indonesian Economy, Tourism Management,30(2):232-239.
89 Pyatt G.,1988, A Sam Approach to Modeling, Journal of Policy Modeling,10(3):327-352.
90 Pyatt G. and Round J.,1979, Accounting and Fixed Price Multipliers in a Social Accounting Matrix Framework, The Economic Journal,89(356):850-873.
91 Robinson S.,1989, Multisector Models. Handbook of Development Economics. North-Holland Press.
92 Robinson S.,1991, Macroeconomics Financial Variables and Computable General Equilibrium Models, World Development,19(11):1509-1525.
93 Robinson S., Yunez-Naude A., Hinojosa-Ojeda R., Lewis J. D. and Devarajan S.,1999, From Stylized to Applied Models:Building Multisector Cge Models for Policy Analysis, North American Journal of Economics and Finance,10(1):5-38.
94 Ruocco A.,1996, Savings and Investment Fiscal Policies:A Quantitative Analysis for the Italian Economy in Economic Modeling Under the Applied General Equilibrium Approach, Edited by a. Fossati, Avebury, Ashgate Publishing Limited.
95 Scarf H.,1967, On the Computation of Equilibrium Price, in Fellner, W. (Eds), Ten Essays in Honor Irving Fisher.
96 Scarf H.,1967, The Approximation of Fixed Points of Continuous Mapping, Journal of Applied Mathematics,15(5):328-343.
97 Scarf H.,1973, The Computation of Economic Equilibrium. New Haven:The Yale University Press.
98 Schubert S. E. and Brida J. G.,2008, Dynamic Effects of Subsidizing the Tourism Sector, Tourism Economics,14(1):57-80.
99 Scrimgeour F., Oxley L. and Fatai K.,2005, Reducing Carbon Emissions? the Relative Effectiveness of Different Types of Environmental Tax:the Case of New Zealand, Environmental Modelling & Software,20:1439-1448.
100 Shoven J. B. and Whalley J.,1972, A General Equilibrium Calculation of the Effects of Differential Taxation of Income From Capital in the U.S., Journal of Public Economics,1: 281-321.
101 Shoven J. B. and Whalley J.,1973, General Equilibrium with Taxes:A Computational Procedure and an Existence Proof, The Review of Economic Studies,4:475-489.
102 Shoven J. B. and Whalley J.,1974, On the Computation of Competitive Equilibrium On International Markets with Tariffs, Journal of International Economics,4:341-354.
103 Shoven J. B. and Whalley J.,1992, Applying General Equilibrium. Cambridge, UK:Cambridge University Press.
104 Siriwardana M.,1998, Can Policy-Makers Learn From History? A General Equilibrium Analysis of the Recovery Policies of the 1930S Great Depression in Australia, Journal of Policy Modeling, 20(3):361-392.
105 Sugiyarto G., Blake A. and Sinclair M. T.,2003, Tourism and Globalization:Economic Impact in Indonesia, Annals of Tourism Research,30(3):683-701.
106 Sunday A. A.,1978, Foreign Travel and Tourism Prices and Demand, Annals of Tourism Research, 5(2):268-273.
107 Taylor L. and Lysy F. J.,1979, Vanishing Income Redistributions:Keynesian Clues About Model Surprises in the Short Run, Journal of Development Economics,6:11-29.
108 Theile R. and Piazolo D.,2002, Constructing a Social Accounting Matrix with a Distributional Focus-The Case of Bolivia, Kiel Institute of World Economics, Working Paper No,1094.
109 Thorbecke E. and Jung H.,1996, A Multiplier Decomposition Method to Analyze Poverty Alleviation, Journal of Development Economics,48(2):279-300.
110 Tirado D., Gomez C. M. and Lozano J.,2006, Efficiency Improvements and Water Policy in the Balearic Islands:A General Equilibrium Approach, Investigaciones Economicas,30(3):441-463.
111 Tyler G. J.,1996, Export Demand and Botswana'S Beef Industry:A Computable General Equilibrium Approach, African Development Review,8(2):59-67.
112 Walmsley T. L.,2002, Incorporating International Ownership of Endowments Into a Global Applied General Equilibrium Model, Economic Modelling,19:679-707.
113 Walras L.,1874, Elements D'Economie Politique Pure:Lausanne:L.Corbaz. Transl. By William Jaffe as Elements of Pure Economics, Homewood, Ⅲ:Richard D.Irwin (1954).
114 Waters C. and D. W H.,1999, The Role of Agriculture in Oregon'S Economic Base:Findings from a Social Accounting Matrix, Journal of Agriculture and Resource Economics,24(1):266-280.
115 Wattanakuljarus A.,2006, The Nationwide Economic and Environmental Impacts of Tourism:a Computable General Equilibrium Approach for Thailand.
116 Wattanakuljarus A. and Coxhead I.,2008, Is Tourism-Based Development Good for the Poor?:A General Equilibrium Analysis for Thailand, Journal of Policy Modeling,30(6):929-955.
117 Wendner R.,2001, An Applied Dynamic General Equilibrium Model of Environmental Tax Reforms and Pension Policy, Journal of Policy Modeling,23:25-50.
118 Whalley J. and Yeung B.,1984, External Sector'Closing'Rules in Applied General Equilibrium Models, Journal of International Economics,16(1-2):123-138.
119 Witt S. F. and Witt C. A.,1995, Forecasting Tourism Demand:A Review of Empirical Research, International Journal of Forecasting,11(3):447-475.
120 Yeoman I., Lennon J. J., Blake A., Galt M., Greenwood C. and Mcmahon-Beattie U.,2007, Oil Depletion:What Does this Mean for Scottish Tourism?, Tourism Management,28(5):1354-1365.
121 Zhang J., Madsen B. and Jensen-Butler C.,2007, Regional Economic Impacts of Tourism:The Case of Denmark, Regional Studies,41(6):839-853.
122 Zhang Z. X.,1998, Macroeconomic Effects of:A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis for China, Policy Modeling,20(2):213-250.
123 Zhou D., Yanagida J. F., Chakravorty U. and Leung P.,1997, Estimating Economic Impacts From Tourism, Annals of Tourism Research,24(1):76-89.
124蔡文彬,胡宗义,2007,技术进步降低能源强度的CGE研究,统计与决策,21：8-10.
125陈钰芬,2003,国内旅游业可持续发展的对策,统计与决策,165(9)：56-57.
126程凌,2008,统一内外资企业所得税率的CGE分析,统计研究,25(1)：51-58.
127董肠,2009,个人所得税收入能力研究,济南：山东大学博士学位论文.
128段志刚,李善同,2004,北京市结构变化的可计算性一般均衡模型,数量经济技术经济研究,(12)：86-94.
129范金,袁小慧,徐浩然,2006,江苏农村居民收入差距、消费差异与消费潜力研究——基于江苏农村细化SAM的乘数分析,系统工程理论与实践,(11).
130高书军,张广海,2004,国内旅游消费模型及实证研究,统计与决策,172(4)：57-58.
131高颖,李善同,2006,基于CGE模型对中国基础设施建设的减贫效应解析,数量经济技术经济研究,(6)：14-24.
132龚益,1997,关于可计算一般均衡模型的几个问题,数量经济技术经济研究,(8)：21-28.
133郭为,何媛媛,2008,旅游产业的区域集聚、收敛与就业差异：基于分省面板的说明,旅游学刊,(03)：29-36.
134侯瑜,2004,社会核算矩阵的构建方法及平滑技术,统计与信息论坛,19(3)：24-28.
135胡宗义,蔡文彬,2007,能源税征收对能源强度影响的CGE研究,湖南大学学报(社会科学版),21(5)：57-61.
136李冰州,杨剑,陈旭,2004,我国居民旅游消费模型研究,软科学,18(2)：55-58.
137李江帆,李冠霖,江波,2001,旅游业的产业关联和产业波及分析——以广东为例,旅游学刊,(3)：19-25.
138李科,马超群,葛凌,2008,区域经济体可计算一般均衡模型的研究与应用,系统工程理论与实践,(5)：55-63.
139李善同,李强,齐舒畅,翟凡,1996,中国经济的社会核算矩阵,数量经济技术经济研究,(1).
140李善同,翟凡,2000,加入世界贸易组织对中国经济的影响,预测,(3)：6-12.
141李善同,翟凡,徐林,2000,中国加入世界贸易组织对中国经济的影响—动态一般均衡分析,世界经济,23(2)：3-14.
142李彤,翟凡,2007,基于可计算一般均衡模型的决策支持系统,上海三联书店.
143李雪松,汪同三,1999,中国加入世界贸易组织的CGE模型比较与政策建议,国际技术贸易市场信息,(4)：30-32.
144李银兰,范红,2002,国内旅游消费模型初探,重庆商学院学报,(3)：40-42.
145李云鹏,2005,基于计量经济学模型的国内城镇居民旅游消费研究,技术经济与管理研究,(06)：55-56.
146里昂惕夫,1980,投入产出经济学,商务印书馆.
147利果,2008,基于CGE的上海市宏观经济政策模拟系统开发及其应用.上海：华东师范大学硕士学位论文
148刘德谦,李明德,王晓峰,1997,对当前国内旅游走势的试分析,旅游学刊,(1)：27-31.
149刘起运,陈璋,苏汝劫,2006,投入产出分析,中国人民大学出版社.
150吕盛鸽,2006,浙江旅游产业投入产出分析,浙江统计,(11)：13-15.
151吕作奎,2008,基于CGE的中国宏观经济模拟系统开发及其应用.上海：华东师范大学硕士学位论文
152庞丽,王铮,刘清春,2006,我国入境旅游和经济增长关系分析,地域研究与开发,25(3)：51-55,128.
153齐舒畅,2003,我国投入产出表的编制和应用情况简介,中国统计,(5)：21-22.
154乔玮,2006,用投入产出模型分析旅游对上海经济的影响,经济地理,26(Alb)：63-66,86.
155宋咏梅,孙根年,2006,中国城市居民旅游购买能力统计分析,城市问题,(130(2))：54-58.
156宋增文,2007,基于投入产出模型的中国旅游业产业关联度研究,旅游科学,21(2)：7-12,78.
157孙根年,薛佳,2009,中国城乡居民国内旅游需求预测,城市问题,162(1)：68-72.
158孙翊,王铮,朱艳鑫,薛俊波,李兵,2009,基于一般均衡理论的区域差距控制,管理学报,(9)：1163-1168.
159滕丽,王铮,蔡砥,2004,中国城市居民旅游需求差异分析,旅游学刊,19(4)：9-13.
160王大悟,1994,上海国内旅游统计方法探讨,旅游学刊,(1)：46-48,63.
161王燕,徐滇庆,2001,中国养老金隐性债务、转轨成本、改革方式及其影响：可计算一般均衡分析,经济研究,(5)：3-12.
162王铮,刘扬,1999,粮食生产受价格影响的模拟分析,经济科学,(3)：14-23.
163王铮,袁宇杰,熊文,2010,重大事件对上海市入境旅游需求的影响,旅游学刊,25(4)：44-49.
164王直,王慧炯,李善同,翟凡,1997,中国加入世贸组织对世界劳动密集产品市场与美国农业出口的影响-动态递推可计算一般均衡分析,经济研究,(4)：54-65.
165翁钢民,徐晓娜,尚雪梅,2007,我国城市居民国内旅游需求影响因素分析,城市问题,141(4)：31-35.
166吴必虎,唐俊雅,黄安民,赵荣,邱扶东,方芳,1997,中国城市居民旅游目的地选择行为研究,地理学报,52(2)：97-103.
167吴兵,2004,中国经济可计算一般均衡分析决策支持系统的研究与应用.上海：华东师范大学硕士学位论文
168吴静,王铮,吴兵,2005,石油价格上涨对中国经济的冲击——可计算一般均衡模型分析,中国农业大学学报(社会科学版),(2)：69-75.
169伍春来,谷慧敏,2003,中国收入分配结构演变对国内旅游消费的影响,旅游学刊,18(2)：19-23.
170谢彦君,陈元泰,1993,锦州市国内旅游的客源分布模式,旅游学刊,(04)：48-50.
171许召元,李善同,2008,区域间劳动力迁移对经济增长和地区差距的影响,数量经济技术经济研究,(2)：38-52.
172薛俊波,王铮,2007,基于CGE模型的中国农民工就业问题模拟分析,中国农业大学学报(社会科学版).24(3)：128-139.
173闫敏,1999,旅游业与经济发展水平之间的关系,旅游学刊,(5)：9-15,76.
174严冬,周建中,王修贵,2007,利用CGE模型评价水价改革的影响力—以北京市为例,中国人口·资源与环境,17(5)：70-74.
175杨勇,2007,我国省际旅游外汇收入的区域经济影响分析,山西财经大学学报,(01)：67-73.
176应乐华,1988,国际学术会议：投入产出分析评估旅游的经济影响,旅游学刊,(04).
177翟凡,1997,中国经济的可计算一般均衡建模与仿真.武汉：华中理工大学博士论文.
178翟凡,李善同,1999,中国经济的可计算一般均衡模型,见：中国实用宏观经济模型1999,王慧炯等编著,北京：中国财政经济出版社.
179翟凡,李善同,王直,1996,关税减让,国内税替代及其收入分配效应,经济研究,(12)：35-42.
180张葆君,胡宗义,2008,人民币升值对通货膨胀影响的CGE研究,统计与决策,(5)：134-137.
181张宏伟,2009,中国入境旅游的文化差异效应测度研究——基于引力模型的分析,财贸研究,(4)：56-61,68.
182张华初,李永杰,2007,中国旅游业产业关联的定量分析,旅游学刊,22(4)：15-19.
183张立生,2004,我国国内旅游市场规模分析与预测,地域研究与开发,23(1)：59-61.
184赵东喜,2008,中国省际入境旅游发展影响因素研究——基于分省面板数据分析,旅游学刊,23(1)：41-45.
185郑玉歆,樊明太,1999,中国CGE模型及政策分析,社会科学文献出版社.
186周焯华,杨俊,张林华,吴永,2002,CGE模型的求解方法、原理和存在问题,重庆大学学报(自然科学版),25(3)：142-145.
187周焯华,2004,社会核算矩阵的建立和平衡——交互熵方法,数学的实践与认识,34(12)：100-106.
188钟契夫,陈锡康,1987,投入产出分析,北京：中国财政经济出版社.
189朱艳鑫,王铮,薛俊波,李兵,2006,基于一般均衡理论的转移支付影响研究,中国管理科学,(z1)：394-398.
190邹炜,李兴绪,2008,云南旅游产业增加值及影响力研究,昆明大学学报,19(2)：72-75.
2 Adams P. D. and Parmenter B. R.,1992, The Medium Term Significance of International Tourism for the Australian Economy. Canberra:Bureau of Tourism Research.
3 Adams P. D. and Parmenter B. R.,1995, An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis of the Economic Effects of Tourism in a Quite Small, Quite Open Economy, Applied Economics,27(10):985-994.
4 Adelman I. A., Berck P. and Vujovic D.,1991, Using Social Accounting Matrices to Account for Distortions in Non-Market Economies, Economic Systems Research,3(3):269-298.
5 Adelman I. and Obinson S.,1978, Income Distribution Policy in Developing Countries:A Case Study of Korea. Oxford University Press.
6 Alavalapati J. R. R. and Adamowicz W. L.,2000, Tourism Impact Modeling for Resource Extraction Regions, Annals of Tourism Research,27(1):188-202.
7 Archer B.,1995, Importance of Tourism for the Economy of Bermuda, Annals of Tourism Research, 22(4):918-930.
8 Armington P. S.,1969, A Theory of Demand for Products Distinguished by Place of Production, International Monetary Fund Staff Papers,16:159-176.
9 Arrow K. J.,1951, Social Choice and Individual Values. Wiley&Sons.
10 Arrow K. J. and Debreu G.,1954, Existence of Equilibrium for a Competitive Economy, Econometrica,22(265-290).
11 Azis I. J.,2000, Stimulation Economy-Wide Models to Capture the Transition From Financial Crisis to Social Crisis, The Annals of Regional Science,34:251-278.
12 Ballard C. L., Fullerton D., Shoven J. B. and Whalley J.,1985,A General Equilibrium Model for Tax Policy Evaluation. University of Chicago Press for the National Bureau of Economic Research.
13 Ballard and Fullerton D.,1992, Distortionary Taxes and the Provision of Public Goods, Journal of Economic Perspectives,6:117-131.
14 Bandara J.,1991, Computable General Equilibrium Models for Development Policy Analysis in Ldcs, Journal of Economic Surveys,5:3-69.
15 Baster J.,1980, Input-Output Analysis of Tourism Benefits:Lessons from Scotland, International Journal of Tourism Management,1(2):99-108.
16 Berrittella M., Bigano A., Roson R. and Tol R. S. J.,2006, A General Equilibrium Analysis of Climate Change Impacts On Tourism, Tourism Management,27(5):913-924.
17 Bigano A., Bosello F., Roson R. and Tol R.,2008, Economy-Wide Impacts of Climate Change:A Joint Analysis for Sea Level Rise and Tourism, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change,13(8):765-791.
18 Blake A.,2005, The Economic Impact of the London 2012 Olympics,2005. TTRI discussion paper.
19 Blake A.,2008, Tourism and Economics:Not Just a Numbers Game, Not Just Impacts, Bournemouth University,2008.
20 Blake A.,2008, Tourism and Income Distribution in East Africa, International Journal of Tourism Research,10(6):511-524.
21 Blake A. and Sinclair M. T.,2003, Tourism Crisis Management:Us Response to September 11, Annals of Tourism Research,30(4):813-832.
22 Blake A., Arbache J. S., Sinclair M. T. and Teles V.,2008, Tourism and Poverty Relief, Annals of Tourism Research,35(1):107-126.
23 Blake A., Durbarry R., Eugenio-Martin J. L., Gooroochurn N., Hay B., Lennon J., Thea Sinclair M., Sugiyarto G. and Yeoman I.,2006, Integrating Forecasting and Cge Models:The Case of Tourism in Scotland, Tourism Management,27(2):292-305.
24 Blake A., Sinclair M. T. and Soria J. A. C.,2006, Tourism Productivity:Evidence from the United Kingdom, Annals of Tourism Research,33(4):1099-1120.
25 Blake A., Sinclair M. T. and Sugiyarto G.,2003, Quantifying the Impact of Foot and Mouth Disease On Tourism and the Uk Economy, Tourism Economics,9:449-465.
26 Bohlmann H. R. and Van Heerden J. H.,2008, Predicting the Economic Impact of the 2010 Fifa World Cup On South Africa, International Journal of Sport Management and Marketing,3: 383-396.
27 Brau R., Lanza A. and Pigliaru F.,2007, How Fast are Small Tourism Countries Growing? Evidence From the Data for 1980-2003, Tourism Economics,13:603-614.
28 Briassoulis H.,1991, Methodological Issues:Tourism Input-Output Analysis, Annals of Tourism Research,18(3):485-495.
29 Castellani V., Sala S. and Pitea D.,2007, A New Method for Tourism Carrying Capacity Assessment, Ecosystems and Sustainable Development Vi,106:365-374.
30 Chang S.,1996, The Effects of Economic Integration between North and South Korea:A Computable General Equilibrium.Dissertation, Northern Illinois University.
31 Coffman M.,2008, Oil Price Shocks in an Island Economy:An Analysis of the Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship, The Annals of Regional Science.
32 Cooper A. and Wilson A.,2002, Extending the Relevance of Tsa Research for the Uk:General Equilibrium and Spillover Analysis, Tourism Economics,8:7-37.
33 Dervis K., de Melo J. and Robinson S.,1982,General Equilibrium Models for Development Policy. Cambridge University Press.
34 Dewatripoint M. and Michel,1987, On Closure Rules, Homogeneity and Dynamics in Applied General Equilibrium Models, Journal of development economic,26:65-76.
35 Diao X. and Somwaru A.,2000, An Inquiry On General Equilibrium Effects of Mercosur-an Intertemporal World Model, Journal of Policy Modeling,22(5):557-588.
36 Dixon P. B. and Parmenter B. R.,1982, Orani:A Multisectoral Model of the Australia Economy. Amsterdam:North-Holland Press.
37 Dixon P. B. and Parmenter B. R.,1986,Orani Projections of the Short-Run Effects of a 50% Across-the-Board Cut in Protection Using Alternative Databases. in Srinivasan, T.N., Whalley, J. (eds.) General Equilibrium Trade Policy Modeling. Cambridge, MA:MIT Press.
38 Dixon P. B., Parmenter B. R. and Powell A. A.,1992, Notes and Problems in Applied General Equilibrium Economics. Amsterdam:North-Holland Press.
39 Dwyer L. and Forsyth P.,1993, Assessing the Benefits and Costs of Inbound Tourism, Annals of Tourism Research,20(4):751-768.
40 Dwyer L., Forsyth P. and Spurr R.,2003, Inter-Industry Effects of Tourism Growth:Implications for Destination Managers, Tourism Economics,9:117-132.
41 Dwyer L., Forsyth P. and Spurr R.,2004, Evaluating Tourism'S Economic Effects:New and Old Approaches, Tourism Management,25(3):307-317.
42 Dwyer L., Forsyth P. and Spurr R.,2006, Effects of the SARS Crisis On the Economic Contribution of Tourism to Australia, Tourism Review International,10:47-55.
43 Dwyer L., Forsyth P. and Spurr R.,2007, Contrasting the Uses of Tsas and Cge Models:Measuring Tourism Yield and Productivity, Tourism Economics,13:537-552.
44 Dwyer L., Forsyth P., Madden J. and Spurr R.,2000, Economic Impacts of Inbound Tourism Under Different Assumptions Regarding the Macroeconomy, Current Issues in Tourism,3(4):325-363.
45 Dwyer L., Forsyth P., Spurr R. and Vanho T.,2003, Tourisms Contribution to a State Economy:A Multi-Regional General Equilibrium Analysis, Tourism Economics,9:431-448.
46 Dwyer L., Forsyth P., Spurr R. and Vanho T.,2006, Economic Effects of the World Tourism Crisis On Australia, Tourism Economics,12:171-186.
47 Eilat P. and Einav L.,2004, Determinants of International Tourism:A Three-Dimensional Panel Data Analysis, Applied Economics,36(12):1315-1327.
48 Fisher T. C. G. and Waschik R. G.,2000, Union Bargaining Power, Relative Wages, and Efficiency in Canada, Canadian Journal of Economics,33(3):742-765.
49 Fletcher J. E.,1989, Input-Output Analysis and Tourism Impact Studies, Annals of Tourism Research,16(4):514-529.
50 Galinis A.,2000, A Cge Model for Lithuania:The Future of Nuclear Energy, Journal of Policy Modeling,22(6):691-718.
51 Garin-Muoz T.,2006, Inbound International Tourism to Canary Islands:A Dynamic Panel Data Model, Tourism Management,27(2):281-291.
52 Garin-Mu?oz T.,2008, Tourism in Galicia:Domestic and Foreign Demand, Tourism Economics, Forthcoming.
53 Gelan A.,2002, Trade Liberalization and Urban-Rural Linkages:A Cge Analysis for Ethiopia, Journal of Policy Modeling,24:707-738.
54 Ghosh M.,2002, The Revival of Regional Trade Arrangements:A Cge Evaluation of the Impact On Small Countries, Journal of Policy Modeling,24:83-101.
55 Giesecke J.,2002, Explaining Regional Economic Performance:An Historical Application of a Dynamic Multi-Regional Cge Model, Regional Science,81:247-278.
56 Gomez C. M., Lozano J. and Rey-Maquieira J.,2008, Environmental Policy and Long-Term Welfare in a Tourism Economy, Spanish Economic Review,10(1):41-62.
57 Gooroochurn N. and Milner G.,2005, Assessing Indirect Tax Reform in a Tourism-Dependent Developing Country, World Development,33(7):1183-1200.
58 Gooroochurn N. and Thea Sinclair M.,2005, Economics of Tourism Taxation:Evidence From Mauritius, Annals of Tourism Research,32(2):478-498.
59 Gottinger H. W.,1998, Greenhouse Gas Economics and Computable General Equilibrium, Journal of Policy Modeling,20(5):537-580.
60 Guzel H. A. and Kulshreshtha S. N.,1995, Effects of Real Exchange Rate Changes On Canadian Agriculture:A General Equilibrium Evaluation, Journal of Policy Modeling,17(6):639-657.
61 H S.,1967, The Approximation of Fixed Points of Continuous Mapping, Journal of Applied Mathematics,15(5):328-343.
62 Hanson K., Robinson S. and Schluter G.,1993, Sectoral Effects of a World Oil Price Shock: Economy-Wide Linkages to the Agricultural Sector, Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics,18(1):96-116.
63 Harberger A. C.,1994, The Incidence of Corporate Income Tax, Journal of Political Economy,70: 215-240.
64 Harris R. and Cox D.,1983, Trade, Industrial Policy and Canadian Manufacturing. Ontario:Ontario Economic Council.
65 Henry E. W. and Deane B.,1997, The Contribution of Tourism to the Economy of Ireland in 1990 and 1995, Tourism Management,18(8):535-553.
66 Hertel T. W. and Et A.,1996, Global Trade Analysis:Modeling and Application. Cambridge University Press.
67 Hertel T. and Horridge M.,1991, Mending the Family Tree:A Reconciliation of the Linear and Levels Schools of Cge Modelling, IMPACT preliminary working paper IP-54 June.
68 Ivanov S. and Webster C.,2007, Measuring the Impact of Tourism On Economic Growth, Tourism Economics,13:379-388.
69 Johansen,1960,A Multi-Sectoral Study of Economic Growth. Amsterdam:North-Holland Press.
70 Jones C. and Munday M.,2008, Tourism Satellite Accounts and Impact Assessments:Some Considerations, Tourism Analysis,13:53-69.
71 Jorgenson D. W. and Wilcoxen P. J.,1990, Ntertemporal General Equilibrium Modeling of U.S. Environmental Regulation, Journal of Policy Modeling,12:715-744.
72 Kehoe T. J., Polo C. and Sancho F.,1995, An Evaluation of the Performance of an Applied General Equilibrium Model of the Spanish Economy, Economic Theory,6(1):115-141.
73 Keller W. J.,1980, Tax Incidence:A General Equilibrium Approach. North-Holland Press.
74 Kenc T. and Sayan S.,2001, Demographic Shock Transmission from Large to Small Countries:An Overlapping Generations Cge Analysis, Journal of Policy Modeling,23:677-702.
75 Khorshid M.,1991, A Social-Accounting-Matrix-Based Long-Term Model for Gulf Cooperation Council Country:The Kuwaiti Case, Economic Systems Research,3(3):299-314.
76 Kim E. and Kim K.,2002, Impacts of Regional Development Strategies on Growth and Equity of Korea:A Multiregional Cge Model, The Annals of Regional Science,36:165-180.
77 Konan D. E. and Kim K.,2003, Transportation and Tourism in Hawaii-Computable General Equilibrium Model, Transportation Finance, Economics and Economic Development 2003, (1839): 142-149.
78 Kuo H. I., Chen C., Tseng W., Ju L. and Huang B.,2008, Assessing Impacts of SARS and Avian Flu On International Tourism Demand to Asia, Tourism Management,29(5):917-928.
79 Lim C. and Mcaleer M.,2002, Time Series Forecasts of International Travel Demand for Australia, Tourism Management,23(4):389-396.
80 Mabugu R.,2002, Short-Term Effects of Policy Reform On Tourism and the Macroeconomy in Zimbabwe:Applied Cge Analysis, Development Southern Africa,19:419-430.
81 Madsen B. and Jensen-Butler C.,2004, Theoretical and Operational Issues in Sub-Regional Economic Modelling, Illustrated through the Development and Application of the Line Model, Economic Modelling,21(3):471-508.
82 Madsen B., Jensen-Butler C. and Zhang J.,2003, Regional Economic Impacts of Traffic Regulation On Tourism:The Case of Denmark, Review Of Urban & Regional Development Studies,15: 148-169.
83 Manne A. S. and Preckel P.,1983, A Three-Region Inter-Temporal Model of Energy, International Trade, and Capital Flows, Operations research, Stanford University.
84 Mckenzie L. W.,1954, On Equilibrium in Graham'S Model of World Trade and Other Competitive Systems, Econometrica,22(147-161).
85 Melo D. J. and Tarr D.,1992, A General Equilibrium Analysis of Us Foreign Trade Policy. The MIT Press.
86 Narayan P. K.,2004, Economic Impact of Tourism On Fijis Economy:Empirical Evidence From the Computable General Equilibrium Model, Tourism Economics,10:419-433.
87 Oecd,1994, Green:The User Manual, Mimeo, Development Centre, Oecd, Paris.
88 Pambudi D., Mccaughey N. and Smyth R.,2009, Computable General Equilibrium Estimates of the Impact of the Bali Bombing On the Indonesian Economy, Tourism Management,30(2):232-239.
89 Pyatt G.,1988, A Sam Approach to Modeling, Journal of Policy Modeling,10(3):327-352.
90 Pyatt G. and Round J.,1979, Accounting and Fixed Price Multipliers in a Social Accounting Matrix Framework, The Economic Journal,89(356):850-873.
91 Robinson S.,1989, Multisector Models. Handbook of Development Economics. North-Holland Press.
92 Robinson S.,1991, Macroeconomics Financial Variables and Computable General Equilibrium Models, World Development,19(11):1509-1525.
93 Robinson S., Yunez-Naude A., Hinojosa-Ojeda R., Lewis J. D. and Devarajan S.,1999, From Stylized to Applied Models:Building Multisector Cge Models for Policy Analysis, North American Journal of Economics and Finance,10(1):5-38.
94 Ruocco A.,1996, Savings and Investment Fiscal Policies:A Quantitative Analysis for the Italian Economy in Economic Modeling Under the Applied General Equilibrium Approach, Edited by a. Fossati, Avebury, Ashgate Publishing Limited.
95 Scarf H.,1967, On the Computation of Equilibrium Price, in Fellner, W. (Eds), Ten Essays in Honor Irving Fisher.
96 Scarf H.,1967, The Approximation of Fixed Points of Continuous Mapping, Journal of Applied Mathematics,15(5):328-343.
97 Scarf H.,1973, The Computation of Economic Equilibrium. New Haven:The Yale University Press.
98 Schubert S. E. and Brida J. G.,2008, Dynamic Effects of Subsidizing the Tourism Sector, Tourism Economics,14(1):57-80.
99 Scrimgeour F., Oxley L. and Fatai K.,2005, Reducing Carbon Emissions? the Relative Effectiveness of Different Types of Environmental Tax:the Case of New Zealand, Environmental Modelling & Software,20:1439-1448.
100 Shoven J. B. and Whalley J.,1972, A General Equilibrium Calculation of the Effects of Differential Taxation of Income From Capital in the U.S., Journal of Public Economics,1: 281-321.
101 Shoven J. B. and Whalley J.,1973, General Equilibrium with Taxes:A Computational Procedure and an Existence Proof, The Review of Economic Studies,4:475-489.
102 Shoven J. B. and Whalley J.,1974, On the Computation of Competitive Equilibrium On International Markets with Tariffs, Journal of International Economics,4:341-354.
103 Shoven J. B. and Whalley J.,1992, Applying General Equilibrium. Cambridge, UK:Cambridge University Press.
104 Siriwardana M.,1998, Can Policy-Makers Learn From History? A General Equilibrium Analysis of the Recovery Policies of the 1930S Great Depression in Australia, Journal of Policy Modeling, 20(3):361-392.
105 Sugiyarto G., Blake A. and Sinclair M. T.,2003, Tourism and Globalization:Economic Impact in Indonesia, Annals of Tourism Research,30(3):683-701.
106 Sunday A. A.,1978, Foreign Travel and Tourism Prices and Demand, Annals of Tourism Research, 5(2):268-273.
107 Taylor L. and Lysy F. J.,1979, Vanishing Income Redistributions:Keynesian Clues About Model Surprises in the Short Run, Journal of Development Economics,6:11-29.
108 Theile R. and Piazolo D.,2002, Constructing a Social Accounting Matrix with a Distributional Focus-The Case of Bolivia, Kiel Institute of World Economics, Working Paper No,1094.
109 Thorbecke E. and Jung H.,1996, A Multiplier Decomposition Method to Analyze Poverty Alleviation, Journal of Development Economics,48(2):279-300.
110 Tirado D., Gomez C. M. and Lozano J.,2006, Efficiency Improvements and Water Policy in the Balearic Islands:A General Equilibrium Approach, Investigaciones Economicas,30(3):441-463.
111 Tyler G. J.,1996, Export Demand and Botswana'S Beef Industry:A Computable General Equilibrium Approach, African Development Review,8(2):59-67.
112 Walmsley T. L.,2002, Incorporating International Ownership of Endowments Into a Global Applied General Equilibrium Model, Economic Modelling,19:679-707.
113 Walras L.,1874, Elements D'Economie Politique Pure:Lausanne:L.Corbaz. Transl. By William Jaffe as Elements of Pure Economics, Homewood, Ⅲ:Richard D.Irwin (1954).
114 Waters C. and D. W H.,1999, The Role of Agriculture in Oregon'S Economic Base:Findings from a Social Accounting Matrix, Journal of Agriculture and Resource Economics,24(1):266-280.
115 Wattanakuljarus A.,2006, The Nationwide Economic and Environmental Impacts of Tourism:a Computable General Equilibrium Approach for Thailand.
116 Wattanakuljarus A. and Coxhead I.,2008, Is Tourism-Based Development Good for the Poor?:A General Equilibrium Analysis for Thailand, Journal of Policy Modeling,30(6):929-955.
117 Wendner R.,2001, An Applied Dynamic General Equilibrium Model of Environmental Tax Reforms and Pension Policy, Journal of Policy Modeling,23:25-50.
118 Whalley J. and Yeung B.,1984, External Sector'Closing'Rules in Applied General Equilibrium Models, Journal of International Economics,16(1-2):123-138.
119 Witt S. F. and Witt C. A.,1995, Forecasting Tourism Demand:A Review of Empirical Research, International Journal of Forecasting,11(3):447-475.
120 Yeoman I., Lennon J. J., Blake A., Galt M., Greenwood C. and Mcmahon-Beattie U.,2007, Oil Depletion:What Does this Mean for Scottish Tourism?, Tourism Management,28(5):1354-1365.
121 Zhang J., Madsen B. and Jensen-Butler C.,2007, Regional Economic Impacts of Tourism:The Case of Denmark, Regional Studies,41(6):839-853.
122 Zhang Z. X.,1998, Macroeconomic Effects of:A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis for China, Policy Modeling,20(2):213-250.
123 Zhou D., Yanagida J. F., Chakravorty U. and Leung P.,1997, Estimating Economic Impacts From Tourism, Annals of Tourism Research,24(1):76-89.
124蔡文彬,胡宗义,2007,技术进步降低能源强度的CGE研究,统计与决策,21：8-10.
125陈钰芬,2003,国内旅游业可持续发展的对策,统计与决策,165(9)：56-57.
126程凌,2008,统一内外资企业所得税率的CGE分析,统计研究,25(1)：51-58.
127董肠,2009,个人所得税收入能力研究,济南：山东大学博士学位论文.
128段志刚,李善同,2004,北京市结构变化的可计算性一般均衡模型,数量经济技术经济研究,(12)：86-94.
129范金,袁小慧,徐浩然,2006,江苏农村居民收入差距、消费差异与消费潜力研究——基于江苏农村细化SAM的乘数分析,系统工程理论与实践,(11).
130高书军,张广海,2004,国内旅游消费模型及实证研究,统计与决策,172(4)：57-58.
131高颖,李善同,2006,基于CGE模型对中国基础设施建设的减贫效应解析,数量经济技术经济研究,(6)：14-24.
132龚益,1997,关于可计算一般均衡模型的几个问题,数量经济技术经济研究,(8)：21-28.
133郭为,何媛媛,2008,旅游产业的区域集聚、收敛与就业差异：基于分省面板的说明,旅游学刊,(03)：29-36.
134侯瑜,2004,社会核算矩阵的构建方法及平滑技术,统计与信息论坛,19(3)：24-28.
135胡宗义,蔡文彬,2007,能源税征收对能源强度影响的CGE研究,湖南大学学报(社会科学版),21(5)：57-61.
136李冰州,杨剑,陈旭,2004,我国居民旅游消费模型研究,软科学,18(2)：55-58.
137李江帆,李冠霖,江波,2001,旅游业的产业关联和产业波及分析——以广东为例,旅游学刊,(3)：19-25.
138李科,马超群,葛凌,2008,区域经济体可计算一般均衡模型的研究与应用,系统工程理论与实践,(5)：55-63.
139李善同,李强,齐舒畅,翟凡,1996,中国经济的社会核算矩阵,数量经济技术经济研究,(1).
140李善同,翟凡,2000,加入世界贸易组织对中国经济的影响,预测,(3)：6-12.
141李善同,翟凡,徐林,2000,中国加入世界贸易组织对中国经济的影响—动态一般均衡分析,世界经济,23(2)：3-14.
142李彤,翟凡,2007,基于可计算一般均衡模型的决策支持系统,上海三联书店.
143李雪松,汪同三,1999,中国加入世界贸易组织的CGE模型比较与政策建议,国际技术贸易市场信息,(4)：30-32.
144李银兰,范红,2002,国内旅游消费模型初探,重庆商学院学报,(3)：40-42.
145李云鹏,2005,基于计量经济学模型的国内城镇居民旅游消费研究,技术经济与管理研究,(06)：55-56.
146里昂惕夫,1980,投入产出经济学,商务印书馆.
147利果,2008,基于CGE的上海市宏观经济政策模拟系统开发及其应用.上海：华东师范大学硕士学位论文
148刘德谦,李明德,王晓峰,1997,对当前国内旅游走势的试分析,旅游学刊,(1)：27-31.
149刘起运,陈璋,苏汝劫,2006,投入产出分析,中国人民大学出版社.
150吕盛鸽,2006,浙江旅游产业投入产出分析,浙江统计,(11)：13-15.
151吕作奎,2008,基于CGE的中国宏观经济模拟系统开发及其应用.上海：华东师范大学硕士学位论文
152庞丽,王铮,刘清春,2006,我国入境旅游和经济增长关系分析,地域研究与开发,25(3)：51-55,128.
153齐舒畅,2003,我国投入产出表的编制和应用情况简介,中国统计,(5)：21-22.
154乔玮,2006,用投入产出模型分析旅游对上海经济的影响,经济地理,26(Alb)：63-66,86.
155宋咏梅,孙根年,2006,中国城市居民旅游购买能力统计分析,城市问题,(130(2))：54-58.
156宋增文,2007,基于投入产出模型的中国旅游业产业关联度研究,旅游科学,21(2)：7-12,78.
157孙根年,薛佳,2009,中国城乡居民国内旅游需求预测,城市问题,162(1)：68-72.
158孙翊,王铮,朱艳鑫,薛俊波,李兵,2009,基于一般均衡理论的区域差距控制,管理学报,(9)：1163-1168.
159滕丽,王铮,蔡砥,2004,中国城市居民旅游需求差异分析,旅游学刊,19(4)：9-13.
160王大悟,1994,上海国内旅游统计方法探讨,旅游学刊,(1)：46-48,63.
161王燕,徐滇庆,2001,中国养老金隐性债务、转轨成本、改革方式及其影响：可计算一般均衡分析,经济研究,(5)：3-12.
162王铮,刘扬,1999,粮食生产受价格影响的模拟分析,经济科学,(3)：14-23.
163王铮,袁宇杰,熊文,2010,重大事件对上海市入境旅游需求的影响,旅游学刊,25(4)：44-49.
164王直,王慧炯,李善同,翟凡,1997,中国加入世贸组织对世界劳动密集产品市场与美国农业出口的影响-动态递推可计算一般均衡分析,经济研究,(4)：54-65.
165翁钢民,徐晓娜,尚雪梅,2007,我国城市居民国内旅游需求影响因素分析,城市问题,141(4)：31-35.
166吴必虎,唐俊雅,黄安民,赵荣,邱扶东,方芳,1997,中国城市居民旅游目的地选择行为研究,地理学报,52(2)：97-103.
167吴兵,2004,中国经济可计算一般均衡分析决策支持系统的研究与应用.上海：华东师范大学硕士学位论文
168吴静,王铮,吴兵,2005,石油价格上涨对中国经济的冲击——可计算一般均衡模型分析,中国农业大学学报(社会科学版),(2)：69-75.
169伍春来,谷慧敏,2003,中国收入分配结构演变对国内旅游消费的影响,旅游学刊,18(2)：19-23.
170谢彦君,陈元泰,1993,锦州市国内旅游的客源分布模式,旅游学刊,(04)：48-50.
171许召元,李善同,2008,区域间劳动力迁移对经济增长和地区差距的影响,数量经济技术经济研究,(2)：38-52.
172薛俊波,王铮,2007,基于CGE模型的中国农民工就业问题模拟分析,中国农业大学学报(社会科学版).24(3)：128-139.
173闫敏,1999,旅游业与经济发展水平之间的关系,旅游学刊,(5)：9-15,76.
174严冬,周建中,王修贵,2007,利用CGE模型评价水价改革的影响力—以北京市为例,中国人口·资源与环境,17(5)：70-74.
175杨勇,2007,我国省际旅游外汇收入的区域经济影响分析,山西财经大学学报,(01)：67-73.
176应乐华,1988,国际学术会议：投入产出分析评估旅游的经济影响,旅游学刊,(04).
177翟凡,1997,中国经济的可计算一般均衡建模与仿真.武汉：华中理工大学博士论文.
178翟凡,李善同,1999,中国经济的可计算一般均衡模型,见：中国实用宏观经济模型1999,王慧炯等编著,北京：中国财政经济出版社.
179翟凡,李善同,王直,1996,关税减让,国内税替代及其收入分配效应,经济研究,(12)：35-42.
180张葆君,胡宗义,2008,人民币升值对通货膨胀影响的CGE研究,统计与决策,(5)：134-137.
181张宏伟,2009,中国入境旅游的文化差异效应测度研究——基于引力模型的分析,财贸研究,(4)：56-61,68.
182张华初,李永杰,2007,中国旅游业产业关联的定量分析,旅游学刊,22(4)：15-19.
183张立生,2004,我国国内旅游市场规模分析与预测,地域研究与开发,23(1)：59-61.
184赵东喜,2008,中国省际入境旅游发展影响因素研究——基于分省面板数据分析,旅游学刊,23(1)：41-45.
185郑玉歆,樊明太,1999,中国CGE模型及政策分析,社会科学文献出版社.
186周焯华,杨俊,张林华,吴永,2002,CGE模型的求解方法、原理和存在问题,重庆大学学报(自然科学版),25(3)：142-145.
187周焯华,2004,社会核算矩阵的建立和平衡——交互熵方法,数学的实践与认识,34(12)：100-106.
188钟契夫,陈锡康,1987,投入产出分析,北京：中国财政经济出版社.
189朱艳鑫,王铮,薛俊波,李兵,2006,基于一般均衡理论的转移支付影响研究,中国管理科学,(z1)：394-398.
190邹炜,李兴绪,2008,云南旅游产业增加值及影响力研究,昆明大学学报,19(2)：72-75.