我国工业结构低碳化初探
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摘要
工业革命以来,在全球经济高速增长的同时,伴随着对化石能源的巨大消耗,由此导致了二氧化碳排放的急剧增长。以二氧化碳为主要成分的温室气体,已经严重影响了人类的生产环境,带来了诸如天气模式变化、水资源紧缺甚或国际上的局部军事冲突。以消耗化石能源为支撑的高碳经济发展模式已经遭到了人们的普遍质疑。选择一条低能耗、低排放、低污染的低碳工业化道路是应对气候危机,实现社会的可持续发展的必然选择。
低碳工业化的主要内容就是实现工业的低碳化发展。本文通过数据分析和灰色关联度计算发现工业部门是最大的碳排放来源,具有“碳锁定”效应。降低工业发展过程中的碳排放,是推进我国实现“低碳工业化”跨越式发展的重点。通过面板协整检验,从实证上表明工业内部行业的碳排放量和实际工业总产值以及碳效率之间存在着长期的协整关系,该关系揭示了通过工业部门内部结构调整减排是存在可行性空间的。
在此基础之上,本文着力从工业结构调整角度研究减排。回顾产业结构的一般性理论后,本文提炼出工业结构低碳化的三层含义。工业结构低碳化是建立在低碳技术创新基础之上并且随着技术的变化而变化的工业结构的变革过程。包括高碳产业比重下降,低碳产业的比重上升；高碳产品减少,低碳产品增多的内容,又包含高碳产业的低碳化和新兴产业的发展壮大三层含义。随后,本文从技术创新、国家经济发展战略、制度创新与需求结构变动四个角度分析了工业结构低碳化的实现。
技术变革是产业结构变革的主要动力。技术创新是工业结构低碳化的最重要的动力机制。技术创新通过催生新型产业、改变产业间的投入产出技术关系,影响需求结构的变化三种方式推动工业结构的低碳化。本文在FEEM-RICE模型拓展的基础上,从理论上分析了在诱致创新以及干中学的情况下,技术创新与衡量工业结构低碳化的指标“单位产出碳排放量”存在负相关的关系。
对于我国而言,国家的经济发展战略是推动产业结构演进的重要机制。建国后我国产业结构演进的两个阶段皆体现了该时期的政府意志。不同阶段的政府意识和行为特点形成了不同时期经济发展战略,而各个时期经济发展战略的不同导致了各时期产业结构演进的不同特点。我国目前确定了以培育低碳经济作为新的经济增长点,这势必对于产业结构(工业结构)的演变产生重大影响。在该经济发展战略的指导下,我国政府设计了一系列的政策工具,能够有效推动工业结构的低碳化。
制度创新是保障工业结构低碳化实现的重要机制。通过政府制定的政策可以从外部约束经济人的行为,诱使各类生产要素(土地、资本、人力资本等)向低碳技术的研发和扩散领域集聚,向低碳产业集聚,向低碳能源生产和转换领域集聚,从而促进产业结构的低碳化升级。经过对各国低碳推进产业结构低碳化发展措施的归纳和总结,发现法律制度创新、经济制度创新、研发制度创新,行政体制创新能够有助于一国工业结构低碳化的顺利实现。
市场经济条件下,需求结构的变化会淘汰过时产业并且刺激新兴产业的发展,是产业结构演进的动因之一。需求结构对于拉动产业结构的变迁具有直接的作用。尽管在我国市场配置资源仍然具有一定的局限性,但是从需求结构角度分析工业结构的调整仍然具有一定的意义。本文分别从消费结构、投资结构角度给出了如何推动工业结构低碳化的具体对策。消费结构部门着眼于推动消费结构升级,倡导低碳消费,投资结构部分着眼于如何合理配置投资,促进产业的低碳化发展。
本文的最后一章对湖北省的工业结构升级做了针对性分析,在如何科学促进工业结构升级,发展技术含量和附加值双高、社会效益与经济效益双优的“两型”工业部门方面,首次将产业安全和隐含碳纳入考量,分别从经济效益、社会效益、生态效益、技术密集度、产业安全、区域优势6个方面选取了13项指标。在对所选指标进行相应说明后,应用主成分分析法建立了湖北省工业结构调整评价体系。该评价体系对湖北省的24个工业部门进行了综合评分及排序,分析结果显示未来若干年湖北省应该大力发展以下三类产业：一是经济效益好、社会关联度大,但存在一定污染问题的产业；二是增长速度快、技术含量与外向度较高的产业；三是就业能力强,区域优势明显的产业。同时,三类产业的发展策略应该各有侧重。最后依据各项指标对于湖北省几个重点工业部门发展给出了针对性的政策建议。
The industrial revolution has driven up our global economy growing rapidly, accompanied by the huge consumption of fossil fuels, which led to a sharp increase in carbon dioxide emissions. Carbon dioxide, the main component of greenhouse gases, has seriously affected the production of the human environment. For example, changed the weather patterns, brought forward a water shortage, even led to the local military conflict. The high-carbon economic development approach based on the consumption of fossil fules has been widely doubted. Choosing a path of industrialization of low consumption of energy, low emission, low pollution, low-carbon is the key to solve the climate crisis and achieve a sustainable development of society.
The main content of low-carbon industrialization is the industrial low-carbon development. After an analysis of data and applying grey relevancy theory, we have found that the industrial sector is the largest source of carbon of emission, with a "carbon lock" effect. How to promote our country's low-carbon industrialization leap forward? The answer lies largely in reducing carbon emissions during the process of industry production. With a review of the industry evolution theory, and a root t-bar test by IPS, it is found that there is a panel co-integration relationship among the three variables, that is the amount of carbon emission, the gross industry output and the efficiency of carbon emission's usage. This relation reveals the emission characteristics within industry sectors. What is more important is it tells us there is room for carbon emission reduction by restructuring the industry structure. This paper then analyzes the realization of low-carbon industrial structure from four aspects:technology innovation, national economy strategies, institutional innovation and the demand structure.
Technological change is the main driving force of industrial structure changes. Low-carbon technology innovation is the most important dynamic mechanism of industrial structure. Technology innovation promote the low-carbon industrial structure through three ways:pushing forward the birth of new industries, changing the input-output relationship between sectors, stimulating changes in demand structure. Based on the expansion of FEEM-RICE model, this paper concludes that under the condition of induced innovation as well as learning by doing, technology innovation has a positive correlation with the indicator of industrial structure "carbon emissions per unit of output".
For our country is concerned, the country's economic development strategy is an important mechanism to promote industrial structure evolution. The two phases of industrial evolution in our country both reflected the government will during the special period. Different government consciousness and behavior characteristics lead to different period economic development strategy, and different economic development strategy led to different industrial structure evolution. Our country now identified low carbon economy as a new economic growth point. This will exert significant impact on the evolution of industrial structure. Under the guidance of this economic development strategy, our government designs a series of policy tools to promote industrial structure and low carbonation effectively.
Institutional innovation is an important mechanism to ensure the realization of low-carbon industrial structure. Government policies can restrict human behavior from external environment; induce various types of production factors musters into low carbon industry, low-carbon technology development and to the field of low carbon energy production and conversion. Ultimately, promote the upgrading of industrial structure. Legal system innovation, system innovation, R&D system innovation and the administrative system innovation can help a country's realization of restructuring of industry.
Under the condition of market economy, changes in demand structure will eliminate obsolete industries and stimulate the development of new industries. It is one of the motives of the evolution of industrial structure. Demand structure has a direct role in the changes of industrial structure. Although the market allocation of resources in our country still has some limitations, but from the perspective of the demand structure adjustment of industrial structure still has certain significance. From the consumption structure, investment structure point of view, this paper analyzes how to promote the industrial structure and the specific suggestions are given.
The essence of modern economic growth is structure-oriented growth. Under the background of two crises (the financial crisis and climate crisis), it is significant to adjust the industrial structure scientifically and rationally. Hubei province, on the way of heavy industrialization, is a traditional industrial base in our country. This paper aims to solve the problem of prompting the upgrading of industrial structure properly, and developing the environmental friendlily departments with high economic benefits. Firstly taking the factors of industry security and embedded carbon into consideration, this paper chooses indexes from the perspective of economics, society, ecology and technology, applying principal component analysis method, to construct a measurement system. This system scores 24 industrial departments and sorts them. The analysis reveals that three kinds of industries should be fostered in Hubei the next few years:one with prominent economic and social performance, however causing pollution; one with rapid growth, high technology content and degree of openness; one with higher job creation power and obvious local advantages. Different developing strategies should be applied. In the end we suggest corresponsive policies to the priority industry according to the indexes.
低碳工业化的主要内容就是实现工业的低碳化发展。本文通过数据分析和灰色关联度计算发现工业部门是最大的碳排放来源,具有“碳锁定”效应。降低工业发展过程中的碳排放,是推进我国实现“低碳工业化”跨越式发展的重点。通过面板协整检验,从实证上表明工业内部行业的碳排放量和实际工业总产值以及碳效率之间存在着长期的协整关系,该关系揭示了通过工业部门内部结构调整减排是存在可行性空间的。
在此基础之上,本文着力从工业结构调整角度研究减排。回顾产业结构的一般性理论后,本文提炼出工业结构低碳化的三层含义。工业结构低碳化是建立在低碳技术创新基础之上并且随着技术的变化而变化的工业结构的变革过程。包括高碳产业比重下降,低碳产业的比重上升；高碳产品减少,低碳产品增多的内容,又包含高碳产业的低碳化和新兴产业的发展壮大三层含义。随后,本文从技术创新、国家经济发展战略、制度创新与需求结构变动四个角度分析了工业结构低碳化的实现。
技术变革是产业结构变革的主要动力。技术创新是工业结构低碳化的最重要的动力机制。技术创新通过催生新型产业、改变产业间的投入产出技术关系,影响需求结构的变化三种方式推动工业结构的低碳化。本文在FEEM-RICE模型拓展的基础上,从理论上分析了在诱致创新以及干中学的情况下,技术创新与衡量工业结构低碳化的指标“单位产出碳排放量”存在负相关的关系。
对于我国而言,国家的经济发展战略是推动产业结构演进的重要机制。建国后我国产业结构演进的两个阶段皆体现了该时期的政府意志。不同阶段的政府意识和行为特点形成了不同时期经济发展战略,而各个时期经济发展战略的不同导致了各时期产业结构演进的不同特点。我国目前确定了以培育低碳经济作为新的经济增长点,这势必对于产业结构(工业结构)的演变产生重大影响。在该经济发展战略的指导下,我国政府设计了一系列的政策工具,能够有效推动工业结构的低碳化。
制度创新是保障工业结构低碳化实现的重要机制。通过政府制定的政策可以从外部约束经济人的行为,诱使各类生产要素(土地、资本、人力资本等)向低碳技术的研发和扩散领域集聚,向低碳产业集聚,向低碳能源生产和转换领域集聚,从而促进产业结构的低碳化升级。经过对各国低碳推进产业结构低碳化发展措施的归纳和总结,发现法律制度创新、经济制度创新、研发制度创新,行政体制创新能够有助于一国工业结构低碳化的顺利实现。
市场经济条件下,需求结构的变化会淘汰过时产业并且刺激新兴产业的发展,是产业结构演进的动因之一。需求结构对于拉动产业结构的变迁具有直接的作用。尽管在我国市场配置资源仍然具有一定的局限性,但是从需求结构角度分析工业结构的调整仍然具有一定的意义。本文分别从消费结构、投资结构角度给出了如何推动工业结构低碳化的具体对策。消费结构部门着眼于推动消费结构升级,倡导低碳消费,投资结构部分着眼于如何合理配置投资,促进产业的低碳化发展。
本文的最后一章对湖北省的工业结构升级做了针对性分析,在如何科学促进工业结构升级,发展技术含量和附加值双高、社会效益与经济效益双优的“两型”工业部门方面,首次将产业安全和隐含碳纳入考量,分别从经济效益、社会效益、生态效益、技术密集度、产业安全、区域优势6个方面选取了13项指标。在对所选指标进行相应说明后,应用主成分分析法建立了湖北省工业结构调整评价体系。该评价体系对湖北省的24个工业部门进行了综合评分及排序,分析结果显示未来若干年湖北省应该大力发展以下三类产业：一是经济效益好、社会关联度大,但存在一定污染问题的产业；二是增长速度快、技术含量与外向度较高的产业；三是就业能力强,区域优势明显的产业。同时,三类产业的发展策略应该各有侧重。最后依据各项指标对于湖北省几个重点工业部门发展给出了针对性的政策建议。
The industrial revolution has driven up our global economy growing rapidly, accompanied by the huge consumption of fossil fuels, which led to a sharp increase in carbon dioxide emissions. Carbon dioxide, the main component of greenhouse gases, has seriously affected the production of the human environment. For example, changed the weather patterns, brought forward a water shortage, even led to the local military conflict. The high-carbon economic development approach based on the consumption of fossil fules has been widely doubted. Choosing a path of industrialization of low consumption of energy, low emission, low pollution, low-carbon is the key to solve the climate crisis and achieve a sustainable development of society.
The main content of low-carbon industrialization is the industrial low-carbon development. After an analysis of data and applying grey relevancy theory, we have found that the industrial sector is the largest source of carbon of emission, with a "carbon lock" effect. How to promote our country's low-carbon industrialization leap forward? The answer lies largely in reducing carbon emissions during the process of industry production. With a review of the industry evolution theory, and a root t-bar test by IPS, it is found that there is a panel co-integration relationship among the three variables, that is the amount of carbon emission, the gross industry output and the efficiency of carbon emission's usage. This relation reveals the emission characteristics within industry sectors. What is more important is it tells us there is room for carbon emission reduction by restructuring the industry structure. This paper then analyzes the realization of low-carbon industrial structure from four aspects:technology innovation, national economy strategies, institutional innovation and the demand structure.
Technological change is the main driving force of industrial structure changes. Low-carbon technology innovation is the most important dynamic mechanism of industrial structure. Technology innovation promote the low-carbon industrial structure through three ways:pushing forward the birth of new industries, changing the input-output relationship between sectors, stimulating changes in demand structure. Based on the expansion of FEEM-RICE model, this paper concludes that under the condition of induced innovation as well as learning by doing, technology innovation has a positive correlation with the indicator of industrial structure "carbon emissions per unit of output".
For our country is concerned, the country's economic development strategy is an important mechanism to promote industrial structure evolution. The two phases of industrial evolution in our country both reflected the government will during the special period. Different government consciousness and behavior characteristics lead to different period economic development strategy, and different economic development strategy led to different industrial structure evolution. Our country now identified low carbon economy as a new economic growth point. This will exert significant impact on the evolution of industrial structure. Under the guidance of this economic development strategy, our government designs a series of policy tools to promote industrial structure and low carbonation effectively.
Institutional innovation is an important mechanism to ensure the realization of low-carbon industrial structure. Government policies can restrict human behavior from external environment; induce various types of production factors musters into low carbon industry, low-carbon technology development and to the field of low carbon energy production and conversion. Ultimately, promote the upgrading of industrial structure. Legal system innovation, system innovation, R&D system innovation and the administrative system innovation can help a country's realization of restructuring of industry.
Under the condition of market economy, changes in demand structure will eliminate obsolete industries and stimulate the development of new industries. It is one of the motives of the evolution of industrial structure. Demand structure has a direct role in the changes of industrial structure. Although the market allocation of resources in our country still has some limitations, but from the perspective of the demand structure adjustment of industrial structure still has certain significance. From the consumption structure, investment structure point of view, this paper analyzes how to promote the industrial structure and the specific suggestions are given.
The essence of modern economic growth is structure-oriented growth. Under the background of two crises (the financial crisis and climate crisis), it is significant to adjust the industrial structure scientifically and rationally. Hubei province, on the way of heavy industrialization, is a traditional industrial base in our country. This paper aims to solve the problem of prompting the upgrading of industrial structure properly, and developing the environmental friendlily departments with high economic benefits. Firstly taking the factors of industry security and embedded carbon into consideration, this paper chooses indexes from the perspective of economics, society, ecology and technology, applying principal component analysis method, to construct a measurement system. This system scores 24 industrial departments and sorts them. The analysis reveals that three kinds of industries should be fostered in Hubei the next few years:one with prominent economic and social performance, however causing pollution; one with rapid growth, high technology content and degree of openness; one with higher job creation power and obvious local advantages. Different developing strategies should be applied. In the end we suggest corresponsive policies to the priority industry according to the indexes.
引文
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