基于决策支持理论的特殊高原机场签派放行研究
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摘要
我国是世界上拥有特殊高原机场最多的国家,这些机场大多位于我国的西部地区。随着国家西部开发战略的实施及国内市场需求的急剧增加,越来越多的航空公司投入到西部特殊高原航线运营中。然而,特殊高原机场大多地处山区,地形环境复杂,气候环境恶劣,给航空公司签派放行工作带来了诸多困难。
本文主要从签派放行的角度,结合特殊高原机场运行特点及特殊要求,建立了签派放行指标体系,并借助决策支持理论提出了一种特殊高原机场签派放行辅助决策方法。首先,本文从气象环境、地理环境、进离场程序环境三个方面完成对特殊高原机场运行环境特点的分析总结,并对签派放行评估项目进行了细致的分析,然后将特殊高原机场运行环境的特点与放行签派员的能力要求相结合,建立层次体系模型,对放行签派员的能力要求展开研究。在此基础之上,结合航空公司特殊高原机场运行特殊要求及运行统计资料,采用专家调查法确定影响特殊高原机场航线签派放行的重要因子。最后,基于决策支持理论,采用模糊决策与层次分析相关理论知识,建立特殊高原机场签派放行综合评判模型,并借助MATLAB完成数据的分析处理,最终得出航班落地概率,达到辅助签派员放行特殊高原机场航班的目的,为今后签派放行决策支持系统的开发提供模型参考与理论支持。
China is the country possessing the world's largest number of special plateau airports which are mostly located in China's western region. Along with the implementation of the western development strategy and the rapidly increase of the domestic market demanding, more and more airlines engage in the airline operations of the western special plateau airports. However, these special plateau airports are mostly situated in mountainous area with complex terrain environment and atrocious weather conditions, which has brought a lot of difficulties to the airlines dispatch.
From the point of dispatch release, combing with the operation characteristics and special requirements of special plateau airports, a dispatch release index system was established, and a method of dispatch decision Support for the special plateau airport was proposed by using decision support theory. First, this paper summarizes the operation environment of special plateau airports characteristics from three aspects: the meteorological environment, terrain environment, approach and departure environment. In addition, the paper gives the assessment item of dispatch release a detailed analysis. Then, hierarchical system model was established by combining the characteristics of the special plateau airport operation environment with the capability requirements of dispatchers. The capacity requirements of dispatchers were researched. On this basis, with the operation specific requirements of special plateau airport operating and the operation statistics, the important factors affecting the special plateau airport route dispatch were determined by the experts investigation. Finally, based on the decision support theory, using the knowledge of fuzzy decision-making and hierarchical analysis, comprehensive evaluation model was established, and the complete data was analyzed with MATLAB processing. Eventually the probability of flight landing was worked out for the purpose of assisting dispatchers release the flight to the special plateau airport, and the model reference and theoretical in this paper will be support for the development of dispatch release decision support system.
本文主要从签派放行的角度,结合特殊高原机场运行特点及特殊要求,建立了签派放行指标体系,并借助决策支持理论提出了一种特殊高原机场签派放行辅助决策方法。首先,本文从气象环境、地理环境、进离场程序环境三个方面完成对特殊高原机场运行环境特点的分析总结,并对签派放行评估项目进行了细致的分析,然后将特殊高原机场运行环境的特点与放行签派员的能力要求相结合,建立层次体系模型,对放行签派员的能力要求展开研究。在此基础之上,结合航空公司特殊高原机场运行特殊要求及运行统计资料,采用专家调查法确定影响特殊高原机场航线签派放行的重要因子。最后,基于决策支持理论,采用模糊决策与层次分析相关理论知识,建立特殊高原机场签派放行综合评判模型,并借助MATLAB完成数据的分析处理,最终得出航班落地概率,达到辅助签派员放行特殊高原机场航班的目的,为今后签派放行决策支持系统的开发提供模型参考与理论支持。
China is the country possessing the world's largest number of special plateau airports which are mostly located in China's western region. Along with the implementation of the western development strategy and the rapidly increase of the domestic market demanding, more and more airlines engage in the airline operations of the western special plateau airports. However, these special plateau airports are mostly situated in mountainous area with complex terrain environment and atrocious weather conditions, which has brought a lot of difficulties to the airlines dispatch.
From the point of dispatch release, combing with the operation characteristics and special requirements of special plateau airports, a dispatch release index system was established, and a method of dispatch decision Support for the special plateau airport was proposed by using decision support theory. First, this paper summarizes the operation environment of special plateau airports characteristics from three aspects: the meteorological environment, terrain environment, approach and departure environment. In addition, the paper gives the assessment item of dispatch release a detailed analysis. Then, hierarchical system model was established by combining the characteristics of the special plateau airport operation environment with the capability requirements of dispatchers. The capacity requirements of dispatchers were researched. On this basis, with the operation specific requirements of special plateau airport operating and the operation statistics, the important factors affecting the special plateau airport route dispatch were determined by the experts investigation. Finally, based on the decision support theory, using the knowledge of fuzzy decision-making and hierarchical analysis, comprehensive evaluation model was established, and the complete data was analyzed with MATLAB processing. Eventually the probability of flight landing was worked out for the purpose of assisting dispatchers release the flight to the special plateau airport, and the model reference and theoretical in this paper will be support for the development of dispatch release decision support system.
引文
[1]AC-121-21,航空承运人高原机场运行管理规定[S].北京:中国民用航空局飞行标准司,2007
[2]AC-121-2009-17R1,特殊机场的分类标准及运行要求[S].北京:中国民用航空局飞行标准司,2009
[3]夏安帮.决策支持系统引论[M].上海:同济大学出版社,1991:02-04
[4]刘豹.决策与预测[J].决策支持理论,1998,2(3):46-48
[5]CCAR-121R4,大型飞行公共航空运输承运人运行合格审定规则[S].北京:中国民用航空局,2010
[6]何光勤,罗凤娥.签派程序与方法[M].成都:西南交通大学出版社, 2004: 01-148
[7]孙宏,罗凤娥等.高原机场安全运行特殊保障规律研究报告[Z].2008
[8]汪波.航空公司运行控制的研究[D].成都:西南交通大学, 2005
[9]罗凤娥,夏洲等.九寨/黄龙机场大雪天气下的签派放行[J].中国民航飞行学院学报,2006,17(5):50-52
[10]王岩韬.边缘天气下的签派放行[J].科教文汇,2010,16(2):203-204
[11]牟延宝.冬季航班签派放行的时机与决策[J].成都航空职业技术学院学报,2008,24(2):24-26
[12]黄仪方.高原重要机场航班延误的气象因素分析[J].高原山地气象研究,2009,29(2):37-39
[13]苏敏,段炼等.九黄机场航空气象特点[J].中国民航飞行学院学报,2007,18(1):3-7
[14]成永勤.高原气象特点与航空气象保障的对策[J].空中交通管理,2005,6(5):43-45
[15]范菠.西藏林芝机场飞行气象条件分析[J].气象,2007,33(9):59-63
[16]倪雪.拉萨贡嘎机场干季风沙、浮尘天气特征及预报初探[J].四川气象,2001,21(4):46-48
[17]杨乐.高原机场民用飞机起飞性能关键技术研究[D].南京:南京航空航天大学, 2007
[18]段钧剑.高原机场飞机起飞性能研究[D].西安:西北工业大学, 2007
[19]陆崑.高原机场维修保障工作初探[J].航空维修与工程,2009,10(3):62-64
[20]饶志勤.高原机场的空中交通管制特色[J].空中交通管理,2006,5(2):12-13
[21]Phillip J.Leserer.Airline Network Design[D].New York:University of Rochester, 1997
[22]Rosenberger, Jay Michael .Topics in airline operations [A].Dissertation Abstracts International [C]. Prouqest Information and Learning Company, 2002: 13-53
[23]Hoffmann,HerbertO.Airline schedule recovery following disturbances: An organizationally-oriented decision-making approach [A].Dissertation Abstracts International[C].Proudest Information and Learning Company,2005:08-66
[24]Siddhartha Kumar. Airline integrated planning and operations [A]. Dissertation Abstracts International [C]. Proquest Information and Learning Company,2007:34-112
[25]AhmadBeygi, Shervin.Airline planning under uncertainty [A].Dissertation Abstracts International [C].Request Information and Learning Company,2008:09-69
[26]方志耕等.决策理论与方法[M].北京:科学出版社,2009:04-06
[27]陈文伟.决策支持系统教程[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2004:03-05
[28]高洪深.决策支持系统理论与方法[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2009:01-06
[29]张鹏翥.决策支持系统[M].上海:上海交通大学出版社,2005:20-25
[30]Shaoyao Yan, et al.a Decision Support Framework for Multi-fleet Routing and Multi-stop Flight Scheduling [J].Elsevier Science, 1994, V30(5):379-396
[31]许培贞.高原机场的复杂天气与飞行气象服务[J].空中交通管理, 2004,5(4): 36-40
[32]卓嘎.青藏高原夏季降水的水汽分布特征[J].气象科学,2002,22(1):01-07
[33]黄仪方,朱智愚.航空气象[M].成都:西南交通大学出版社, 2002:159-162
[34]胡金法.保障高原机场安全飞行[J].中国民用航空,2005,(09):66-67
[35]黎新,余江.民用运输类飞机的高原适航性分析[J].航空维修与工程,2007,(5):60-61
[36]段炼.九黄机场风切变与湍流探测研究[J].中国民航飞行学院学报,2010,21(2):06-10
[37]戴加洗.青藏高原气候[M].北京:气象出版社,1990:80-91
[39]罗晓利.飞行中人的因素[M].成都:西南交大出版社,1998:15-20
[40]罗凤娥,岳谭谭.签派员综合素质能力评估研究[J].中国民用航空学报,2010,2(6):62-64
[41]门治君.模糊数学在建设工程项目中的研究及应用[D].西安:西安理工大学,2010
[42]冯保成.模糊数学实用集萃[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,1991:285-290
[43]沈基来,桑凌志.层次分析法在水上突发事件预警中的应用[J].中国水运,2010,(10):30-34
[44]陈卫.AHP方法在IT项目组合管理中的应用[J].微计算机应用,2010,(05):25-27
[45]刘扬.模糊层次分析法在图书馆服务评价中的应用[J].中国集体经济,2010,(21):40-43
[46]杨珍,牟占军.基于层次分析法的高校教师教学质量评价研究[J].内蒙古工业大学学报,2010,(01):39-42
[47]张谢东.基于AHP多层模糊综合评价法的桥梁景观评价[J].武汉理工大学学报,2010,(12):17-19
[48]Flight Operations Engineering Performance Fundamental [Z].Boeing China Inc,2001
[49]高原特殊机场航线运行手册[Z].四川航空股份有限公司,2009
[50]Flight Manual performance for A320 aircraft[Z].2003
[51]飞行机组操作手册[Z].四川航空股份有限公司,2005
[52]王建宏.模糊数学基础[M].北京:科学出版社,2001:20-33
[53]穆艳峥.基于模糊隶属度去噪声的决策树支持向量机[D].保定:河北大学,2010
[54]潘灵刚.基于模糊理论的冯家水位汛期的研究[D],西安:西北农林科技大学,2010
[55]青义学.模糊决策理论[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社,2004:38-45
[56]谢季坚.模糊数学方法及其应用[M].武汉:华中科技大学出版社,2006:145-156
[57]贺仲雄.模糊数学及其派生决策方法[M].北京:中国铁道出版社,1997:24-39
[2]AC-121-2009-17R1,特殊机场的分类标准及运行要求[S].北京:中国民用航空局飞行标准司,2009
[3]夏安帮.决策支持系统引论[M].上海:同济大学出版社,1991:02-04
[4]刘豹.决策与预测[J].决策支持理论,1998,2(3):46-48
[5]CCAR-121R4,大型飞行公共航空运输承运人运行合格审定规则[S].北京:中国民用航空局,2010
[6]何光勤,罗凤娥.签派程序与方法[M].成都:西南交通大学出版社, 2004: 01-148
[7]孙宏,罗凤娥等.高原机场安全运行特殊保障规律研究报告[Z].2008
[8]汪波.航空公司运行控制的研究[D].成都:西南交通大学, 2005
[9]罗凤娥,夏洲等.九寨/黄龙机场大雪天气下的签派放行[J].中国民航飞行学院学报,2006,17(5):50-52
[10]王岩韬.边缘天气下的签派放行[J].科教文汇,2010,16(2):203-204
[11]牟延宝.冬季航班签派放行的时机与决策[J].成都航空职业技术学院学报,2008,24(2):24-26
[12]黄仪方.高原重要机场航班延误的气象因素分析[J].高原山地气象研究,2009,29(2):37-39
[13]苏敏,段炼等.九黄机场航空气象特点[J].中国民航飞行学院学报,2007,18(1):3-7
[14]成永勤.高原气象特点与航空气象保障的对策[J].空中交通管理,2005,6(5):43-45
[15]范菠.西藏林芝机场飞行气象条件分析[J].气象,2007,33(9):59-63
[16]倪雪.拉萨贡嘎机场干季风沙、浮尘天气特征及预报初探[J].四川气象,2001,21(4):46-48
[17]杨乐.高原机场民用飞机起飞性能关键技术研究[D].南京:南京航空航天大学, 2007
[18]段钧剑.高原机场飞机起飞性能研究[D].西安:西北工业大学, 2007
[19]陆崑.高原机场维修保障工作初探[J].航空维修与工程,2009,10(3):62-64
[20]饶志勤.高原机场的空中交通管制特色[J].空中交通管理,2006,5(2):12-13
[21]Phillip J.Leserer.Airline Network Design[D].New York:University of Rochester, 1997
[22]Rosenberger, Jay Michael .Topics in airline operations [A].Dissertation Abstracts International [C]. Prouqest Information and Learning Company, 2002: 13-53
[23]Hoffmann,HerbertO.Airline schedule recovery following disturbances: An organizationally-oriented decision-making approach [A].Dissertation Abstracts International[C].Proudest Information and Learning Company,2005:08-66
[24]Siddhartha Kumar. Airline integrated planning and operations [A]. Dissertation Abstracts International [C]. Proquest Information and Learning Company,2007:34-112
[25]AhmadBeygi, Shervin.Airline planning under uncertainty [A].Dissertation Abstracts International [C].Request Information and Learning Company,2008:09-69
[26]方志耕等.决策理论与方法[M].北京:科学出版社,2009:04-06
[27]陈文伟.决策支持系统教程[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2004:03-05
[28]高洪深.决策支持系统理论与方法[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2009:01-06
[29]张鹏翥.决策支持系统[M].上海:上海交通大学出版社,2005:20-25
[30]Shaoyao Yan, et al.a Decision Support Framework for Multi-fleet Routing and Multi-stop Flight Scheduling [J].Elsevier Science, 1994, V30(5):379-396
[31]许培贞.高原机场的复杂天气与飞行气象服务[J].空中交通管理, 2004,5(4): 36-40
[32]卓嘎.青藏高原夏季降水的水汽分布特征[J].气象科学,2002,22(1):01-07
[33]黄仪方,朱智愚.航空气象[M].成都:西南交通大学出版社, 2002:159-162
[34]胡金法.保障高原机场安全飞行[J].中国民用航空,2005,(09):66-67
[35]黎新,余江.民用运输类飞机的高原适航性分析[J].航空维修与工程,2007,(5):60-61
[36]段炼.九黄机场风切变与湍流探测研究[J].中国民航飞行学院学报,2010,21(2):06-10
[37]戴加洗.青藏高原气候[M].北京:气象出版社,1990:80-91
[39]罗晓利.飞行中人的因素[M].成都:西南交大出版社,1998:15-20
[40]罗凤娥,岳谭谭.签派员综合素质能力评估研究[J].中国民用航空学报,2010,2(6):62-64
[41]门治君.模糊数学在建设工程项目中的研究及应用[D].西安:西安理工大学,2010
[42]冯保成.模糊数学实用集萃[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,1991:285-290
[43]沈基来,桑凌志.层次分析法在水上突发事件预警中的应用[J].中国水运,2010,(10):30-34
[44]陈卫.AHP方法在IT项目组合管理中的应用[J].微计算机应用,2010,(05):25-27
[45]刘扬.模糊层次分析法在图书馆服务评价中的应用[J].中国集体经济,2010,(21):40-43
[46]杨珍,牟占军.基于层次分析法的高校教师教学质量评价研究[J].内蒙古工业大学学报,2010,(01):39-42
[47]张谢东.基于AHP多层模糊综合评价法的桥梁景观评价[J].武汉理工大学学报,2010,(12):17-19
[48]Flight Operations Engineering Performance Fundamental [Z].Boeing China Inc,2001
[49]高原特殊机场航线运行手册[Z].四川航空股份有限公司,2009
[50]Flight Manual performance for A320 aircraft[Z].2003
[51]飞行机组操作手册[Z].四川航空股份有限公司,2005
[52]王建宏.模糊数学基础[M].北京:科学出版社,2001:20-33
[53]穆艳峥.基于模糊隶属度去噪声的决策树支持向量机[D].保定:河北大学,2010
[54]潘灵刚.基于模糊理论的冯家水位汛期的研究[D],西安:西北农林科技大学,2010
[55]青义学.模糊决策理论[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社,2004:38-45
[56]谢季坚.模糊数学方法及其应用[M].武汉:华中科技大学出版社,2006:145-156
[57]贺仲雄.模糊数学及其派生决策方法[M].北京:中国铁道出版社,1997:24-39