滦南县变电站工程项目综合效益研究
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摘要
滦南县近年工农业生产比较发达,尤其以养殖加工业及轻工业发展较快,用电量呈逐年上升趋势。目前滦南县35KV变电站供电容量已严重不足,难于满足社会用电需求。为配合地区建设及为重点企业提供电源,新建变电站已成为必须。因此,在新一轮的变电站建设过程中,如何对新建变电站项目综合效益进行分析和评价,将有很大的现实意义。
本文在对滦南县35KV变电站新建项目概况、该地区的电网现状以及存在问题分析及其建设必要性分析的基础上,分别从技术因素、经济因素和社会环境因素对该项目的可行性进行评价分析,并建立了变电站项目可行性综合评价体系,其中技术指标主要包括选址,输电线路和变电规划;经济指标包括投资回收期,净现值和内部收益率;社会环境指标包括自然环境分析,社会效益分析和风险应对对策分析;在此基础上,利用基于AHP的模糊综合评价模型对变电站项目进行综合评价分析并得出结论,它可以在不影响大致结果的前提下,高效的将复杂事物简单化。本文所建立的变电站新建项目综合评价指标体系不仅可以用于本项目的可行性评价,亦可对其他变电站新建项目进行辅助决策。
In recent years, Luannan county is more developed industrial and agricultural production, particularly in farming and processing industry, light industry developed rapidly, with consumption increasing year by year. Luannan 35 KV substation now has a serious shortage of power supply capacity, difficult to meet electricity demand. In line with the focus on regional infrastructure and provide the power, the new substation has become a must. Therefore, in the new round of substation construction process, how comprehensive benefits for new substation project analysis and evaluation, will be of great practical significance.
This article based on the new project overview of Luannan 35 KV substation, the region's power grid analysis and the current situation and problems of building on the basis of need, respectively, from technical factors, economic factors and social environmental factors to evaluate the feasibility of the project analysis, and feasibility of establishing a comprehensive evaluation system substation projects, including the major technical indicators including their location, transmission line and substation planning; economic indicators, including payback period, net present value and internal rate of return; social analysis of environmental indicators, including the natural environment and social analysis and risk response measures analysis; On this basis, the use of AHP based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of a comprehensive evaluation of substation projects and concluded that it cannot affect the general results of the premise, efficient complex things simple. This new project substation established comprehensive evaluation index system can be used not only to evaluate the feasibility of the project, new projects can be carried out on other decision support substation.?
本文在对滦南县35KV变电站新建项目概况、该地区的电网现状以及存在问题分析及其建设必要性分析的基础上,分别从技术因素、经济因素和社会环境因素对该项目的可行性进行评价分析,并建立了变电站项目可行性综合评价体系,其中技术指标主要包括选址,输电线路和变电规划;经济指标包括投资回收期,净现值和内部收益率;社会环境指标包括自然环境分析,社会效益分析和风险应对对策分析;在此基础上,利用基于AHP的模糊综合评价模型对变电站项目进行综合评价分析并得出结论,它可以在不影响大致结果的前提下,高效的将复杂事物简单化。本文所建立的变电站新建项目综合评价指标体系不仅可以用于本项目的可行性评价,亦可对其他变电站新建项目进行辅助决策。
In recent years, Luannan county is more developed industrial and agricultural production, particularly in farming and processing industry, light industry developed rapidly, with consumption increasing year by year. Luannan 35 KV substation now has a serious shortage of power supply capacity, difficult to meet electricity demand. In line with the focus on regional infrastructure and provide the power, the new substation has become a must. Therefore, in the new round of substation construction process, how comprehensive benefits for new substation project analysis and evaluation, will be of great practical significance.
This article based on the new project overview of Luannan 35 KV substation, the region's power grid analysis and the current situation and problems of building on the basis of need, respectively, from technical factors, economic factors and social environmental factors to evaluate the feasibility of the project analysis, and feasibility of establishing a comprehensive evaluation system substation projects, including the major technical indicators including their location, transmission line and substation planning; economic indicators, including payback period, net present value and internal rate of return; social analysis of environmental indicators, including the natural environment and social analysis and risk response measures analysis; On this basis, the use of AHP based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of a comprehensive evaluation of substation projects and concluded that it cannot affect the general results of the premise, efficient complex things simple. This new project substation established comprehensive evaluation index system can be used not only to evaluate the feasibility of the project, new projects can be carried out on other decision support substation.?
引文
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[2]成虎.工程项目管理[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2004.
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[4]刘亚丽,孙憎武.工程项目管理优化学[M].山西经济出版社,1996年.
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[6]司成均.旅游房地产开发项目前期策划研究[D].重庆:重庆大学硕士学位论文,2008.
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[8]张艳.变电站工程的过程管理研究[J].科技信息, 2010(31)
[9]曾仍继.基于220kV自动化变电站的安全运行分析[J].沿海企业与科技,2010(10).
[10]张学英,涂申清.工程成本与控制.重庆大学出版社,2008
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[12]于佳,孙荣国,霍龙.粗集—模糊识别理论在变电站选址评价中的应用[J].网络与信息, 2010(7)
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[14]牛勇,王震宇等.改进灰色模型在中长期电力负荷预测中的应用[J].东北电力大学学报,2009,29(2):64-69
[15]蓝信军.长期电力负荷预测的模糊数学方法研究[D].湖南:湖南大学硕士研究生论文,2004.
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[17]郝建新.美国工程造价管理.天津:南开大学出版社,2002
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[24]贾泽艳.电力建设项目全过程工程造价管理和控制.江苏电机工程,2003.11
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[26]韩天祥,李莉华,余颖辉.用LCC进行500kV变电站改造经济性评价[J].中国设备工程, 2008(03)
[27]《政府投资工程管理方式改革研究》课题组.政府投资工程管理方式改革研究报告,2002
[28]周文浩.房建工程项目降低成本的方法和途径.山西建筑.2008.
[29]王茜.浅议项目造价控制[J].山西建筑. 2006.
[30]余晖浅.谈变电站安全生产运行管理[J].科技传播, 2010(22)
[31]赵振武,唐万生,宁玉富.模糊模拟在风险投资项目评价中的应用.模糊系统与数学,2005(4):128-133
[32]华瑶,赵辉.基于灰色模糊的变电站建设效益评价模型[J].工业技术经济, 2010(10)
[33]陈泽萍,李强.变电站环境噪声评价与防治[J].电力环境保护, 2008(01)
[34]汪翔.论变电站土建工程质量的控制措施[J].中国新技术新产品, 2010(22)
[35]朱赤宁.论述电力系统变电站的运行管理[J].硅谷, 2010(20)
[36]杨明.浅议变电站运行管理措施[J].中国新技术新产品, 2010(22)
[37]王建楠,王薇.浅析变电站扩建工程施工项目存在的问题及对策[J].中国电力教育, 2010(31)
[38]J. G. Roos, I. E. Lane. Industrial Power Demand Response Analysis for One-Part Real-Time Pricing. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 1998,13(1),159-164
[39]Yuansheng Huang,Qingchao Liu,Zilong Qiu. Network Synthetic Optimization in Project Schedule By Using PAAA Algorithm And Considered Of Time Value Of Money.FSKD2008,1173-1178
[40]陶文伟,周元刚等.模糊综合评价方法在变电站通信网络状态检修中的应用[J].武汉大学学报(工学版),2010(6).
[41] Chunhao Li, Yonghe Sun, Yanhui Jia, Hui Li. An improved ranking approach to AHP alternatives based on variable weights[J]. Intelligent Control and Automation, 2008, P: 8255–8260
[42] Xuning Peng, Feng Dai. Information Systems Risk Evaluation Based on the AHP-Fuzzy Algorithm. Networking and Digital Society, 2009(2), P:?178‐180
[2]成虎.工程项目管理[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2004.
[3]刘哗萍,陈志伟.建设项目管理[M].上海交通大学出版社,1999年.
[4]刘亚丽,孙憎武.工程项目管理优化学[M].山西经济出版社,1996年.
[5]牛东晓,曹树华,赵磊等.电力负荷预测技术及其应用[M].北京:中国电力出版社,1998.
[6]司成均.旅游房地产开发项目前期策划研究[D].重庆:重庆大学硕士学位论文,2008.
[7]徐剑.基于粗糙集和灰色系统模型的短期负荷预测方法研究[D].河北:华北电力大学硕士论文,2007.
[8]张艳.变电站工程的过程管理研究[J].科技信息, 2010(31)
[9]曾仍继.基于220kV自动化变电站的安全运行分析[J].沿海企业与科技,2010(10).
[10]张学英,涂申清.工程成本与控制.重庆大学出版社,2008
[11]Broadbent J,Laughlin R.Control and legitim in government accountability processes of private finance initiative in the UK[J].Critical Perspective on Accounting 2003,14:23-18
[12]于佳,孙荣国,霍龙.粗集—模糊识别理论在变电站选址评价中的应用[J].网络与信息, 2010(7)
[13]D. K. Ranaweera, G. G. Karady, R.G. Farmer. Economic Impact Analysis of Load Forecasting[J]. IEEE Trans on Power Systems, 1997,12(3): 1388-1392.
[14]牛勇,王震宇等.改进灰色模型在中长期电力负荷预测中的应用[J].东北电力大学学报,2009,29(2):64-69
[15]蓝信军.长期电力负荷预测的模糊数学方法研究[D].湖南:湖南大学硕士研究生论文,2004.
[16]冯保成.模糊数学实用集粹.北京:中国建筑工业出版社,1991:66-72
[17]郝建新.美国工程造价管理.天津:南开大学出版社,2002
[18]KiShk,M.and Al-Hajj,A.An Integrated Framework for Life Cycle Costing in Building. Proceedings of the COBRA 1999 RIGS Construction and Buiding Research Conference. 1999,9(2): P92-101
[19]唐桂清.施工招标阶段工程造价的控制.中国工程咨询网,2003
[20]杨晓林主编.造价工程师实用手册.黑龙江科学技术出版社,2000
[21]李慧民主编.建筑工程经济与项目管理.冶金工业出版社,2002
[22]刘华敏,杨丽霞.电力工程造价的管理与控制.电力建设,2001
[23]Sadi A.Assa:fa, Abdulaziz A.Bubshaita, Sulaiman Atiyahb, Mohammed A1-Shahric,The management of construction company overhead costs InternationJournal of Project Management, 2001,19,295-303
[24]贾泽艳.电力建设项目全过程工程造价管理和控制.江苏电机工程,2003.11
[25]朱丽,刘金娥.电力建设工程造价管理思考.云南电业,2004.8
[26]韩天祥,李莉华,余颖辉.用LCC进行500kV变电站改造经济性评价[J].中国设备工程, 2008(03)
[27]《政府投资工程管理方式改革研究》课题组.政府投资工程管理方式改革研究报告,2002
[28]周文浩.房建工程项目降低成本的方法和途径.山西建筑.2008.
[29]王茜.浅议项目造价控制[J].山西建筑. 2006.
[30]余晖浅.谈变电站安全生产运行管理[J].科技传播, 2010(22)
[31]赵振武,唐万生,宁玉富.模糊模拟在风险投资项目评价中的应用.模糊系统与数学,2005(4):128-133
[32]华瑶,赵辉.基于灰色模糊的变电站建设效益评价模型[J].工业技术经济, 2010(10)
[33]陈泽萍,李强.变电站环境噪声评价与防治[J].电力环境保护, 2008(01)
[34]汪翔.论变电站土建工程质量的控制措施[J].中国新技术新产品, 2010(22)
[35]朱赤宁.论述电力系统变电站的运行管理[J].硅谷, 2010(20)
[36]杨明.浅议变电站运行管理措施[J].中国新技术新产品, 2010(22)
[37]王建楠,王薇.浅析变电站扩建工程施工项目存在的问题及对策[J].中国电力教育, 2010(31)
[38]J. G. Roos, I. E. Lane. Industrial Power Demand Response Analysis for One-Part Real-Time Pricing. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 1998,13(1),159-164
[39]Yuansheng Huang,Qingchao Liu,Zilong Qiu. Network Synthetic Optimization in Project Schedule By Using PAAA Algorithm And Considered Of Time Value Of Money.FSKD2008,1173-1178
[40]陶文伟,周元刚等.模糊综合评价方法在变电站通信网络状态检修中的应用[J].武汉大学学报(工学版),2010(6).
[41] Chunhao Li, Yonghe Sun, Yanhui Jia, Hui Li. An improved ranking approach to AHP alternatives based on variable weights[J]. Intelligent Control and Automation, 2008, P: 8255–8260
[42] Xuning Peng, Feng Dai. Information Systems Risk Evaluation Based on the AHP-Fuzzy Algorithm. Networking and Digital Society, 2009(2), P:?178‐180