基于网络效应的快递网络扩张决策研究
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摘要
目前,在我国快递市场上,企业发展水平参差不齐,市场竞争正由无序向有序转变。国际快递业务中外资快递企业占有绝对优势,国内区域间市场也而临的外资快递企业的巨大威胁,本土快递企业面临着重大的发展问题。从现实情况来看,快递网络资源的竞争是快递企业发展的关键,各种方式的网络扩张是快递企业在竞争中寻求发展所采用的普遍手段。于是,快递企业如何合理地进行网络扩张决策就成为企业发展所要考虑的战略问题。
网络效应是快递业所表现出来的鲜明特点,本文就是从网络效应的角度来探讨快递网络扩张决策的问题。网络效应是指用户的价值随着网络中用户数量的增加,网络规模扩大而增用的特性。本文提出并论证了快递供给网络和需求网络的网络效应。供给网络的直接网络效应主要表现为供给网络规模的扩大导致的节点之间快递物品交互能力的提高；间接网络效应则主要表现为网络经济的出现、快递时效性的提升、互补产品方面的改善。需求网络的网络效应是快递服务网络化的原始驱动力量。需求网络的直接网络效应主要表现为随着快递消费者的增加,快递消费者能够与更多的人群进行快递物品的交互；间接网络效应则主要来源于供给网络的网络效应。之后,基于网络效应视角分析了快递网络的演化以及快递网络扩张决策的方式,并提出了相应的概念模型。
在概念模型基础上,本文构建了一个快递市场中两个企业竞争的快递网络扩张一般决策模型,并利用一个算例验证了该模型。然后从网络规模,成本的角度对算例进行了灵敏性分析。最后,在一般决策模型的基础上考虑了两种情形下的快递网络扩张问题。一种是同一个市场中快递企业间网络的兼容性扩张问题,并在非合作和合作情形下分别进行了算例研究。研究表明,合作情形下双方企业的总利润大于非合作情形,但就每个企业而言,合作情形下的利润不总大于非合作情形。另外一种扩张问题是两个细分市场中快递企业进行兼容性扩张的问题。研究表明,若消费者的基本效用足够大,进行网络兼容后各企业的单位成本不大于兼容之前时,兼容性扩张决策存在唯一子博弈精炼纳什均衡,即各企业都选择兼容性扩张。以上两类问题代表了快递网络兼容性扩张的典型过程。
Nowadays, in the express market in China, the development levels of express enterprises are uneven.Express market is changing from disordered state to ordered state. In China, foreign express enterprises have absolute advantage in international express business, and also threaten domestic inter-regional market to domestic enterprises, so, domestic enterprises are facing major development issues. Express network resource competition is the key to the development of enterprises. So, it is a strategy issue for express enterprise to make network expansion decision.
Distinctive features of express services reflect the network effects.In economics, network effects are characteristics that the network value increases with the increacing number of network users. This paper proposes and argues the express supply network effects and express demand network effects. Direct-network effects of express supply network mean the goods interaction capabilities among nodes improve with the increase of the size of the supply network, and indirect-network effects mean improvement of timeliness, appearance of network economy and improvement from "complementary products". Express demand network effects are original driving force to make express service formulate networks. Direct-network effects of express demand network reflect the number of individuals that one customer can reaches with network extension, and Indirect-network effects of express demand network form from supply network effects.Then, based on network effects, paper analyzes the evolution of express network and way of network expansion decisions, and proposes a conceptual model based on the interaction.This paper research express network expansion decision problem from the perspective of network effects.
Paper proposes the network expansion general decision model in a market which has two enterprises based on conceptual model. And the model is verified by an actual example.Then, sensitivity analysis is used in actual example from network size and unit cost angles. After above work, paper considers two kinds of network expansion in two situaitons which represent two typical network expansion processes.In one situation, paper considers the compatibility network expansion between two enterprises in one market from cooperation and non-cooperation angles respectively. Example shows that total profit of two enterprises in cooperation situation is more than in non-cooperative situation.In another situation, paper uses a three-stage dynamic game model to study the compatibility network expansion decision in two subdivisional markets having four enterprises. According to hypothesis, if unit costs don't increase after chosing compatibility, this problem has unique subgame perfect nash equilibrium that all the enterprises chose compatibility.
网络效应是快递业所表现出来的鲜明特点,本文就是从网络效应的角度来探讨快递网络扩张决策的问题。网络效应是指用户的价值随着网络中用户数量的增加,网络规模扩大而增用的特性。本文提出并论证了快递供给网络和需求网络的网络效应。供给网络的直接网络效应主要表现为供给网络规模的扩大导致的节点之间快递物品交互能力的提高；间接网络效应则主要表现为网络经济的出现、快递时效性的提升、互补产品方面的改善。需求网络的网络效应是快递服务网络化的原始驱动力量。需求网络的直接网络效应主要表现为随着快递消费者的增加,快递消费者能够与更多的人群进行快递物品的交互；间接网络效应则主要来源于供给网络的网络效应。之后,基于网络效应视角分析了快递网络的演化以及快递网络扩张决策的方式,并提出了相应的概念模型。
在概念模型基础上,本文构建了一个快递市场中两个企业竞争的快递网络扩张一般决策模型,并利用一个算例验证了该模型。然后从网络规模,成本的角度对算例进行了灵敏性分析。最后,在一般决策模型的基础上考虑了两种情形下的快递网络扩张问题。一种是同一个市场中快递企业间网络的兼容性扩张问题,并在非合作和合作情形下分别进行了算例研究。研究表明,合作情形下双方企业的总利润大于非合作情形,但就每个企业而言,合作情形下的利润不总大于非合作情形。另外一种扩张问题是两个细分市场中快递企业进行兼容性扩张的问题。研究表明,若消费者的基本效用足够大,进行网络兼容后各企业的单位成本不大于兼容之前时,兼容性扩张决策存在唯一子博弈精炼纳什均衡,即各企业都选择兼容性扩张。以上两类问题代表了快递网络兼容性扩张的典型过程。
Nowadays, in the express market in China, the development levels of express enterprises are uneven.Express market is changing from disordered state to ordered state. In China, foreign express enterprises have absolute advantage in international express business, and also threaten domestic inter-regional market to domestic enterprises, so, domestic enterprises are facing major development issues. Express network resource competition is the key to the development of enterprises. So, it is a strategy issue for express enterprise to make network expansion decision.
Distinctive features of express services reflect the network effects.In economics, network effects are characteristics that the network value increases with the increacing number of network users. This paper proposes and argues the express supply network effects and express demand network effects. Direct-network effects of express supply network mean the goods interaction capabilities among nodes improve with the increase of the size of the supply network, and indirect-network effects mean improvement of timeliness, appearance of network economy and improvement from "complementary products". Express demand network effects are original driving force to make express service formulate networks. Direct-network effects of express demand network reflect the number of individuals that one customer can reaches with network extension, and Indirect-network effects of express demand network form from supply network effects.Then, based on network effects, paper analyzes the evolution of express network and way of network expansion decisions, and proposes a conceptual model based on the interaction.This paper research express network expansion decision problem from the perspective of network effects.
Paper proposes the network expansion general decision model in a market which has two enterprises based on conceptual model. And the model is verified by an actual example.Then, sensitivity analysis is used in actual example from network size and unit cost angles. After above work, paper considers two kinds of network expansion in two situaitons which represent two typical network expansion processes.In one situation, paper considers the compatibility network expansion between two enterprises in one market from cooperation and non-cooperation angles respectively. Example shows that total profit of two enterprises in cooperation situation is more than in non-cooperative situation.In another situation, paper uses a three-stage dynamic game model to study the compatibility network expansion decision in two subdivisional markets having four enterprises. According to hypothesis, if unit costs don't increase after chosing compatibility, this problem has unique subgame perfect nash equilibrium that all the enterprises chose compatibility.
引文
1这一说法并不完全准确,后文中有详细的分析。
2主要指在间接网络效应实现中,由外部赋予的效用,如互补产品方面的改善。
1数据来源：国家统计局编.中国统计年鉴2009,北京：中国统计出版社,2009：641。
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2主要指在间接网络效应实现中,由外部赋予的效用,如互补产品方面的改善。
1数据来源：国家统计局编.中国统计年鉴2009,北京：中国统计出版社,2009：641。
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