马达加斯加竞争力研究：探索国家生产力竞争优势的钻石模型
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摘要
马达加斯加人民的生活水平非常低。由于三十年以来其经济持续地衰退了一半左右,以致马达加斯加人均国内生产总值只相当于20世纪70年代后期的发展中国家的水平。人力资源也非常少。在此期间,平均每年GDP增长只有0.5%,而人口每年却有2.8%增长率,进而影响了国民生活水平。生活水平的下降主要是由于不合理地政策制约了经济活动。国家经历了多年的充足地资源配置改革和限制民营部门在国民经济发展中发挥作用的社会主义建设。马达加斯加自独立以来,就存在许多政治危机。最近2001年12月的总统选举:选举结果就引起了争议,国家政府被分为两派的状况,将国家引入了一场重大地政治危机,而且将会掀起一沦经济消沉。
然而,虽然马达加斯加支持联合国的和平发展战略,但是在极端贫困的条件下,要成倍改变人民的生活现状也是非常困难的。为此,持续地经济增长是一个基本条件。伴随宏观经济和国家财政稳定,过渡期的经济增长已经大于或等于8%,这也将有助于国家到2015年减少一半的贫困人口。但线性预测显示马达加斯加在实现和平发展目标方面并没有取得很大的进展。为此,在日益开放和世界经济一体化的环境下,竞争能力的培育将是马达加斯加最核心的当务之急。因为竞争力和增长率间相互交叉的因果联系表明,提升竞争力将提高生产率,将改进经济增长方式和提高人民生活水平。
本文研究的目的是通过分析马达加斯加的竞争优势,提出对策建议,进而提高竞争力。通过评价马达加斯加现有竞争力水平,分析马达加斯加竞争力的影响因素,进而对研究项目进行了进一步探讨。界定了需研究的问题和演绎方法的研究参数,从国家竞争力系统和影响国家竞争力水平的政策、制度的角度,运用前沿地竞争力分析方法,作者分析了马达加斯加的生产力和包括微观、宏观商业环境。
收集了大量有代表性的数据,并对数据进行了分析,并对分析结果进行了说明,生产力和商业环境的综合竞争力对整个商业和经济有影响。比较性研究主要是为了梳理出国家间竞争力重大性的差异,进而能合理地理解和评价马达加斯加的竞争力,从全球视角评估马达加斯加共和国的竞争力。对相关的数据也都运用了定量和定性分析方法。在第二章运用了回归、投射和计量经济学中的最小二乘估计模型定量分析方法;通过SPSS 12.0的演算;最后对分析结果进行了解释和说明。定性分析方面运用了国家竞争力理论和其他相关理论因素集,分析了影响国家生产力水平的政策制度。
通过对马达加斯加现有的竞争能力的分析表明,2002年的政治危机对本国经济有重大影响,相对2001年而言,经济总体上是呈现下滑趋势。通货膨胀率从2001年的6%上升为2002年的15%,而且出口率也下降了一半。政治危机对第二产业和第三产业的影响比对农业的影响更大,分别收缩了,25%和12.5%。而这些收缩导致2002年GDP急剧下降12%左右。2003年GDP大概又恢复9%。虽有二、三产业经济收缩的影响和主要出口农作物数量的急剧下降,但2004年仍保持5.3%的高经济增长率。然而,非洲增长与机会法案(AGOA)前景的不确定性和多种纤维协定限定配额的分配的影响,将会影响马达加斯加的投资和定位决策,进而一些消极的影响将会蔓延。马达加斯加过多的依赖国外援助也会影响其竞争力。马达加斯加竞争力的钻石模型的分析揭示了一系列的缺陷和问题。这些问题也揭露出在过去几十年,马达加斯加落后的经济状况及商业运作中的困难和问题。此外,随着近几年进一步地钻石模型研究方面的发展,2002年改革性政府上台,通过聚类分析算法研究表明,2004年农产品、纺织品、服饰品、捕鱼业、鱼产品和旅游业是马达加斯加出口收入的第四大经济来源。但是,同发展中国家的产业集群一样(Porter,1998,230),与发达国家相比,马达加斯加的产业集群太狭窄和浅薄。尽管经过公共机构部门的协作努力,但是,其产业集群的发展还仍处于初级发展阶段。而且,目前对招商环境改进的重视,也转移了对国家整体的竞争力的关注程度。目前已经在公司战略实施的背景和影响条件及全球竞争力报告中的商业竞争力的研究中得到了发展。世界银行进行地商业调查显示,马达加斯加比非洲北部撒哈拉沙漠相邻地区的国家拥有更好的商业投资环境、能更好地保护投资者,而且能更有力地执行法律合同。有政府干涉的经济自由率评价指数(指数越小表示政府干涉越少)显示,马达加斯加1.5分甚至比美国2.0分还靠前。进而,民营经济在这些方面占尽了先机和占有优势。全球竞争力报告相关的支柱产业的微变量和需求状况都不容乐观。而且,马达加斯加的经济急易受到影响和冲击。周期性的高增长已经通过外部和内部冲击得到了缓解(2002年贸易偏好中的危机、暴风雨和转机)。
对马达加斯加经济和竞争力问题的分析也说明了这些问题。研究结果进一步表明:尽管存在分歧,但马达加斯加加工出口(EPZ)公司,在平均水平上,比非加工出口公司更具有区域竞争力,更有效率。与撒哈拉沙漠相邻地区的国家相比较(不包括赞比亚),马达加斯加的非加工出口公司的生产率都较低。工业部门的二元论揭示了,与其他国家区域发展相比较,马达加斯加的加工出口公司处于衰退状态,非加工出口公司面临地恶劣的商业环境,及两类公司都有面临组织和规章调整的高成本特点。为使马达加斯加的公司更具有国际竞争能力,应更有针对性地对非加工出口部门的生产能力来进行政策倾斜。
马达加斯加要构建国家竞争力;进一步的对影响国家生产力水平的各类因素、政策、制度调整是必不可少的。具体对策建议如下:改进商业环境,加大产业集群的发展、转变政府角色和商业在经济发展中的角色、整合社会和经济政策、发展一种多国经济战略。
Malagasy people have a poor standard of living. Madagascar's per capital GDP was average for a developing country in the late 1970s, but three decades of steady economic decline since then have reduced it to about half that. The country's stock of human resources is now quite small. Average annual GDP growth has been only 0.5 per cent during that period, while the population has increased by an average of 2.8 per cent a year which declined the living standard. This decline in living standards is mainly due to persistently bad government policies that have held back economic activity. The country experimented for many years with socialism, which substantially changed resource allocation and lessened the role of the private sector in creating value added. Madagascar has also had many political crises since independence. The most recent followed the presidential elections of December 2001: the result was contested, plunging the country into a major political crisis that cut it in two and set off an economic slump from which it is still struggling to emerge.
However, Madagascar, through its adhesion with the UN Millennium Development Goals, launched the challenge to decrease by half the population living in extreme poverty. To this end, a constant economic growth is one of the primordial conditions. A medium term growth superior or equal 8%, accompanied by macro-economic and financial stability, would reduce by half the rate of poverty to 2015. But linear projections show that Madagascar is not making enough progress toward meeting the targets of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). To meeting that end, in an increasingly open and integrated world economy, competitiveness has become a central preoccupation of Madagascar. Since the ordinary line of cross-causality relationships between competitiveness and growth indicate that, improving competitiveness will improve productivity, and will improve economic growth and then standard of living.
The purpose of this study is to analyze competitive advantage of Madagascar and then suggest strategies and policy implications to improve that competitiveness. The present study is considered as an evaluation research since it is concerned with analyzing the levels of competitiveness in Madagascar, analyzing the problems that matter Madagascar competitiveness and thereby ways of deepening that process. The defining research questions and research parameters denotes a deductive approach, with respect the view of national competitiveness as the set of factors, policies and institutions that determine the level of productivity of a country. Thus, along of our competitiveness analysis, we analyzed both productivity and business environment include both microeconomic and macroeconomic business environment.
Large amount cross-sectional data was collected, analyzed and an interpretation of results was reported to show the impact of productivity and business environment competitiveness to business and the economy as a whole. A comparative research design is found more suitable in order to tease out significant contrasts permitting a reasonable understanding and a fair evaluation of the competitiveness of Madagascar, and to assess a comparative competitiveness in international perspective, thus comparator countries will be added to the analysis too. And then relevant data was analyzed using both quantitative and qualitative methods. Quantitative analysis was made using regression and projection, and least square estimation model as reviewed in econometrics overview in chapter 2; computed using SPSS version 12.0; and an interpretation of results are expected to support the evidence of our analysis. Qualitative analysis was made using the theoretical reflections outlined from the national competitive advantage theory and others theory with respect of view of national competitiveness as the set of factors, policies and institutions that determine the level of productivity of a country.
The analysis of Madagascar current competitiveness indicates that the political crisis of 2002 dealt a significant blow to the economy. Relative to their 2001 levels, all economic aggregates fell. Inflation rose from roughly 6 percent in 2001 to 15 percent in 2002 and exports fell by half. The secondary and tertiary sectors were affected more than agriculture by the crisis, and contracted by 25 percent and 12.5 percent, respectively. These contractions caused a significant decline in GDP in 2002 down by nearly 12 percent for the year. Recovery was rapid though, with GDP growth of almost 9 percent in 2003. Despite the detrimental impact of two cyclones and a sharp depreciation of the currency on major export crops, growth for the year 2004 remained high at 5.3 percent. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the future of AGOA and the impact of the dismantling of the Multi-Fibre Agreement quotas is likely to affect investment and relocation decisions in Madagascar, and thus negatively impact growth. Madagascar has also been quite dependent on foreign aid which is likely to be creating distortions. An analysis of the competitiveness diamond in Madagascar reveals a number of deficiencies. These conditions suggest the difficulties that face businesses as they try to operate in Madagascar, helping to explain the poor economic performance in recent decades. Moreover, several of the plusses in the diamond are recent developments: the reformist government only came to power in 2002. Cluster analysis reveal that agricultural products, textile and apparel, fishing and fishing products and tourism cluster were the four largest sources of export receipts in 2004. But as is often the case with clusters in developing countries (Porter, 1998, 230 ff), the Malagasy clusters are both shallow and narrow compared to clusters in developed countries. Despite of the efforts of the active institutions for collaboration, those clusters remain in its early stages of development. Unfortunately, the recent improvements to the business environment have yet to shift the country's overall competitiveness rating. In recent years progress has been made in relation to the factor conditions and the context for firm strategy and rivalry of the Global Competitiveness Report's Business Competitiveness. In the World Bank's Doing Business survey, Madagascar is considerably better than the averages for sub-Saharan Africa for starting a business and protecting investor, and for enforcing contracts. In the Index of Economic Freedom's assessment of government intervention (in which a lower scores indicates less government intervention), Madagascar scores an impressive 1.5, ahead even of the U.S. (2.0). However, the private sector has yet to take advantage of these conditions. The Global Competitiveness Report micro-variables on related and supporting industries and demand conditions are particularly discouraging. Therefore, the Malagasy economy is, very vulnerable to shocks. Periods of high growth have been mitigated by external and internal shocks, (the 2002 crisis, cyclones, and changes in trade preferences).
Our analysis of Madagascar economic and competitiveness problems reported explanations of those problems. Our results indicate that EPZ firms in Madagascar, on average, are very competitive regionally, and significantly more efficient than non-EPZ firms, though there are large dispersions within this group. Non-EPZ Malagasy firms have much lower productivity compared to firms in all other Sub-Saharan countries except Zambia. The dualism in the industrial sector reflects the poor backward linkages of EPZ firms, the poorer business environment faced by non-EPZ firms and the high costs of infrastructure and regulations faced by both groups compared to most other countries regionally. For Malagasy firms to become internationally competitive, policy focus needs to shift towards augmenting productivity in the non-EPZ sector.
For Madagascar, to achieve national competitiveness; further improvement in the set of factors, policies and institutions that determine the level of productivity of the country is needed. Thus the following strategies and policy implications are suggested: improve business environment, foster cluster development, shift roles of government and business in economic development, integrate social and economic policies, and lead a cross-national economic strategy.
然而,虽然马达加斯加支持联合国的和平发展战略,但是在极端贫困的条件下,要成倍改变人民的生活现状也是非常困难的。为此,持续地经济增长是一个基本条件。伴随宏观经济和国家财政稳定,过渡期的经济增长已经大于或等于8%,这也将有助于国家到2015年减少一半的贫困人口。但线性预测显示马达加斯加在实现和平发展目标方面并没有取得很大的进展。为此,在日益开放和世界经济一体化的环境下,竞争能力的培育将是马达加斯加最核心的当务之急。因为竞争力和增长率间相互交叉的因果联系表明,提升竞争力将提高生产率,将改进经济增长方式和提高人民生活水平。
本文研究的目的是通过分析马达加斯加的竞争优势,提出对策建议,进而提高竞争力。通过评价马达加斯加现有竞争力水平,分析马达加斯加竞争力的影响因素,进而对研究项目进行了进一步探讨。界定了需研究的问题和演绎方法的研究参数,从国家竞争力系统和影响国家竞争力水平的政策、制度的角度,运用前沿地竞争力分析方法,作者分析了马达加斯加的生产力和包括微观、宏观商业环境。
收集了大量有代表性的数据,并对数据进行了分析,并对分析结果进行了说明,生产力和商业环境的综合竞争力对整个商业和经济有影响。比较性研究主要是为了梳理出国家间竞争力重大性的差异,进而能合理地理解和评价马达加斯加的竞争力,从全球视角评估马达加斯加共和国的竞争力。对相关的数据也都运用了定量和定性分析方法。在第二章运用了回归、投射和计量经济学中的最小二乘估计模型定量分析方法;通过SPSS 12.0的演算;最后对分析结果进行了解释和说明。定性分析方面运用了国家竞争力理论和其他相关理论因素集,分析了影响国家生产力水平的政策制度。
通过对马达加斯加现有的竞争能力的分析表明,2002年的政治危机对本国经济有重大影响,相对2001年而言,经济总体上是呈现下滑趋势。通货膨胀率从2001年的6%上升为2002年的15%,而且出口率也下降了一半。政治危机对第二产业和第三产业的影响比对农业的影响更大,分别收缩了,25%和12.5%。而这些收缩导致2002年GDP急剧下降12%左右。2003年GDP大概又恢复9%。虽有二、三产业经济收缩的影响和主要出口农作物数量的急剧下降,但2004年仍保持5.3%的高经济增长率。然而,非洲增长与机会法案(AGOA)前景的不确定性和多种纤维协定限定配额的分配的影响,将会影响马达加斯加的投资和定位决策,进而一些消极的影响将会蔓延。马达加斯加过多的依赖国外援助也会影响其竞争力。马达加斯加竞争力的钻石模型的分析揭示了一系列的缺陷和问题。这些问题也揭露出在过去几十年,马达加斯加落后的经济状况及商业运作中的困难和问题。此外,随着近几年进一步地钻石模型研究方面的发展,2002年改革性政府上台,通过聚类分析算法研究表明,2004年农产品、纺织品、服饰品、捕鱼业、鱼产品和旅游业是马达加斯加出口收入的第四大经济来源。但是,同发展中国家的产业集群一样(Porter,1998,230),与发达国家相比,马达加斯加的产业集群太狭窄和浅薄。尽管经过公共机构部门的协作努力,但是,其产业集群的发展还仍处于初级发展阶段。而且,目前对招商环境改进的重视,也转移了对国家整体的竞争力的关注程度。目前已经在公司战略实施的背景和影响条件及全球竞争力报告中的商业竞争力的研究中得到了发展。世界银行进行地商业调查显示,马达加斯加比非洲北部撒哈拉沙漠相邻地区的国家拥有更好的商业投资环境、能更好地保护投资者,而且能更有力地执行法律合同。有政府干涉的经济自由率评价指数(指数越小表示政府干涉越少)显示,马达加斯加1.5分甚至比美国2.0分还靠前。进而,民营经济在这些方面占尽了先机和占有优势。全球竞争力报告相关的支柱产业的微变量和需求状况都不容乐观。而且,马达加斯加的经济急易受到影响和冲击。周期性的高增长已经通过外部和内部冲击得到了缓解(2002年贸易偏好中的危机、暴风雨和转机)。
对马达加斯加经济和竞争力问题的分析也说明了这些问题。研究结果进一步表明:尽管存在分歧,但马达加斯加加工出口(EPZ)公司,在平均水平上,比非加工出口公司更具有区域竞争力,更有效率。与撒哈拉沙漠相邻地区的国家相比较(不包括赞比亚),马达加斯加的非加工出口公司的生产率都较低。工业部门的二元论揭示了,与其他国家区域发展相比较,马达加斯加的加工出口公司处于衰退状态,非加工出口公司面临地恶劣的商业环境,及两类公司都有面临组织和规章调整的高成本特点。为使马达加斯加的公司更具有国际竞争能力,应更有针对性地对非加工出口部门的生产能力来进行政策倾斜。
马达加斯加要构建国家竞争力;进一步的对影响国家生产力水平的各类因素、政策、制度调整是必不可少的。具体对策建议如下:改进商业环境,加大产业集群的发展、转变政府角色和商业在经济发展中的角色、整合社会和经济政策、发展一种多国经济战略。
Malagasy people have a poor standard of living. Madagascar's per capital GDP was average for a developing country in the late 1970s, but three decades of steady economic decline since then have reduced it to about half that. The country's stock of human resources is now quite small. Average annual GDP growth has been only 0.5 per cent during that period, while the population has increased by an average of 2.8 per cent a year which declined the living standard. This decline in living standards is mainly due to persistently bad government policies that have held back economic activity. The country experimented for many years with socialism, which substantially changed resource allocation and lessened the role of the private sector in creating value added. Madagascar has also had many political crises since independence. The most recent followed the presidential elections of December 2001: the result was contested, plunging the country into a major political crisis that cut it in two and set off an economic slump from which it is still struggling to emerge.
However, Madagascar, through its adhesion with the UN Millennium Development Goals, launched the challenge to decrease by half the population living in extreme poverty. To this end, a constant economic growth is one of the primordial conditions. A medium term growth superior or equal 8%, accompanied by macro-economic and financial stability, would reduce by half the rate of poverty to 2015. But linear projections show that Madagascar is not making enough progress toward meeting the targets of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). To meeting that end, in an increasingly open and integrated world economy, competitiveness has become a central preoccupation of Madagascar. Since the ordinary line of cross-causality relationships between competitiveness and growth indicate that, improving competitiveness will improve productivity, and will improve economic growth and then standard of living.
The purpose of this study is to analyze competitive advantage of Madagascar and then suggest strategies and policy implications to improve that competitiveness. The present study is considered as an evaluation research since it is concerned with analyzing the levels of competitiveness in Madagascar, analyzing the problems that matter Madagascar competitiveness and thereby ways of deepening that process. The defining research questions and research parameters denotes a deductive approach, with respect the view of national competitiveness as the set of factors, policies and institutions that determine the level of productivity of a country. Thus, along of our competitiveness analysis, we analyzed both productivity and business environment include both microeconomic and macroeconomic business environment.
Large amount cross-sectional data was collected, analyzed and an interpretation of results was reported to show the impact of productivity and business environment competitiveness to business and the economy as a whole. A comparative research design is found more suitable in order to tease out significant contrasts permitting a reasonable understanding and a fair evaluation of the competitiveness of Madagascar, and to assess a comparative competitiveness in international perspective, thus comparator countries will be added to the analysis too. And then relevant data was analyzed using both quantitative and qualitative methods. Quantitative analysis was made using regression and projection, and least square estimation model as reviewed in econometrics overview in chapter 2; computed using SPSS version 12.0; and an interpretation of results are expected to support the evidence of our analysis. Qualitative analysis was made using the theoretical reflections outlined from the national competitive advantage theory and others theory with respect of view of national competitiveness as the set of factors, policies and institutions that determine the level of productivity of a country.
The analysis of Madagascar current competitiveness indicates that the political crisis of 2002 dealt a significant blow to the economy. Relative to their 2001 levels, all economic aggregates fell. Inflation rose from roughly 6 percent in 2001 to 15 percent in 2002 and exports fell by half. The secondary and tertiary sectors were affected more than agriculture by the crisis, and contracted by 25 percent and 12.5 percent, respectively. These contractions caused a significant decline in GDP in 2002 down by nearly 12 percent for the year. Recovery was rapid though, with GDP growth of almost 9 percent in 2003. Despite the detrimental impact of two cyclones and a sharp depreciation of the currency on major export crops, growth for the year 2004 remained high at 5.3 percent. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the future of AGOA and the impact of the dismantling of the Multi-Fibre Agreement quotas is likely to affect investment and relocation decisions in Madagascar, and thus negatively impact growth. Madagascar has also been quite dependent on foreign aid which is likely to be creating distortions. An analysis of the competitiveness diamond in Madagascar reveals a number of deficiencies. These conditions suggest the difficulties that face businesses as they try to operate in Madagascar, helping to explain the poor economic performance in recent decades. Moreover, several of the plusses in the diamond are recent developments: the reformist government only came to power in 2002. Cluster analysis reveal that agricultural products, textile and apparel, fishing and fishing products and tourism cluster were the four largest sources of export receipts in 2004. But as is often the case with clusters in developing countries (Porter, 1998, 230 ff), the Malagasy clusters are both shallow and narrow compared to clusters in developed countries. Despite of the efforts of the active institutions for collaboration, those clusters remain in its early stages of development. Unfortunately, the recent improvements to the business environment have yet to shift the country's overall competitiveness rating. In recent years progress has been made in relation to the factor conditions and the context for firm strategy and rivalry of the Global Competitiveness Report's Business Competitiveness. In the World Bank's Doing Business survey, Madagascar is considerably better than the averages for sub-Saharan Africa for starting a business and protecting investor, and for enforcing contracts. In the Index of Economic Freedom's assessment of government intervention (in which a lower scores indicates less government intervention), Madagascar scores an impressive 1.5, ahead even of the U.S. (2.0). However, the private sector has yet to take advantage of these conditions. The Global Competitiveness Report micro-variables on related and supporting industries and demand conditions are particularly discouraging. Therefore, the Malagasy economy is, very vulnerable to shocks. Periods of high growth have been mitigated by external and internal shocks, (the 2002 crisis, cyclones, and changes in trade preferences).
Our analysis of Madagascar economic and competitiveness problems reported explanations of those problems. Our results indicate that EPZ firms in Madagascar, on average, are very competitive regionally, and significantly more efficient than non-EPZ firms, though there are large dispersions within this group. Non-EPZ Malagasy firms have much lower productivity compared to firms in all other Sub-Saharan countries except Zambia. The dualism in the industrial sector reflects the poor backward linkages of EPZ firms, the poorer business environment faced by non-EPZ firms and the high costs of infrastructure and regulations faced by both groups compared to most other countries regionally. For Malagasy firms to become internationally competitive, policy focus needs to shift towards augmenting productivity in the non-EPZ sector.
For Madagascar, to achieve national competitiveness; further improvement in the set of factors, policies and institutions that determine the level of productivity of the country is needed. Thus the following strategies and policy implications are suggested: improve business environment, foster cluster development, shift roles of government and business in economic development, integrate social and economic policies, and lead a cross-national economic strategy.
引文
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