基于树木年轮学的历史气候数据重建与特征分析
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摘要
本文以树木年轮学为理论基础,以地处我国亚热带地区的江西大岗山为研究区域,以马尾松(Pinus massoniana Lamb)的年轮宽度为研究对象,结合当地气候资料,分析了马尾松生长与气候变化之间的关系,尝试重建了大岗山林区过去近百年的气候变化。主要研究内容及结果归纳如下:
(1)根据江西大岗山地区4个采样点的马尾松年轮样本,建立了本地区的长达133a的综合标准化年轮年表。年表的平均序列相关系数为0.52,平均敏感度为0.27,信噪比为25.70。这表明,所建立的年表序列包含了较丰富的环境变化信息,适合树木年轮气候学的研究。
(2)通过分析马尾松径向生长与气候因子变化的相关和响应关系,发现马尾松标准化年轮宽度年表与当年6月份的平均温度呈显著负相关,与7～9月份的平均温度呈显著正相关;与上一年11月、当年1月和9月的降水显著负相关,而与当年4月降水呈显著正相关;与当年1月和9月的湿润指数显著负相关,而与当年4月湿润指数呈显著正相关;与上一年12月、当年1月、2月、4月、6月、7月、9月及11月月平均最低温度呈显著负相关;与当年4月和6月的月平均最高温度呈显著负相关。
(3)通过对分宜气象站全年各个月份、不同月份组合及季节的气候因子与马尾松综合STD年表和RES年表的相关分析得出,在大岗山地区,生长季7～9月份的平均温度、降水及空气湿润指数与马尾松STD年表的相关系数和响应系数较高,采用回归分析方法,分别建立了温度重建方程Y=1.434X + 25.320、降水重建方程Y=e(-0.308X+5.115)和湿润指数重建方程Y=-1.592X + 6.187。且经交叉检验显示,重建方程都具有较好的稳定性,重建结果都是可信的。重建方程分别重建和恢复了大岗山百年来7～9月份的平均温度、降水及空气湿润指数变化序列。
(4)百年来,大岗山地区7～9月份的平均温度经历了3个偏暖阶段:1895～1902年,1908～1926年和1944～1985年,和3个偏冷阶段:1903～1907年,1927～1943年和1986～2008年。重建的平均温度序列在1921年,1937年及1977年发生明显的方差突变。
(5)大岗山地区7～9月份的降水变化在过去的117a中经历了3个偏干阶段:1895～1902年,1908～1926年和1944～1985年,和3个偏湿阶段:1903～1907年,1927～1943年及1986～2008年。重建的降水量序列在1921年,1937年及1977年发生明显的方差突变。
This paper was taking dendroclimatology as the theoretics basic, taking Dagang Mountain as the area of case study and taking Pinus massoniana as the object. Based on the results of correlation and response analysis, we try to reconstruct the last climate change of Dagang Mountain. The main conclusions are summarized as follows:
(1) A 133-year tree-ring standardized chronology was established based on the samples collected from Mt. Dagangshan. Statistical analysis of the chronology showed mean series inter-correlation of 0.52, mean sensitivity of 0.27, and signal-to-noise of 25.70. The results indicated that the tree-ring chronology records more information of environmental changes. And the tree-ring chronology was fit for the dendroclimatologic study.
(2) The correlation and response analysis show that the standard tree-ring chronologies was positively correlated with temperature from July to September and April precipitation and moisture index of the current year, and was negatively correlated with June mean temperature, January and September precipitation and index, January, February, April, June, July, September and November mean minimum temperature and April and June mean maximum temperature.
(3) Comparing with the month change and the season change, the STD chronology had higher correlation coefficient with mean temperature, precipitation and moisture index from July to September of the current year. By using stepwise regression analysis, we established the temperature reconstruction equation Y=1.434X + 25.320, precipitation reconstruction equation Y= e(-0.308X+5.115) and moisture index reconstruction equation Y= -1.592X + 6.187. The July-September mean temperature, precipitation and moisture index were reconstructed for the past 117 years, and the reconstructions were stable as evaluated by crossing-test.
(4) The reconstruction shows that the July-September mean temperature had experienced three warm periods 1895-1902, 1908-1926 and 1944-1985, and three cold periods 1903-1907, 1927-1943 and 1986-2008. The mean temperature series had abrupt changes in years 1921, 1937 and 1977.
(5) The reconstruction shows that the July-September precipitation had experienced three dry periods 1895-1902, 1908-1926 and 1944-1985, and three wet periods 1903-1907, 1927-1943 and 1986-2008. The precipitation series had abrupt changes in years 1921, 1937 and 1977.
(1)根据江西大岗山地区4个采样点的马尾松年轮样本,建立了本地区的长达133a的综合标准化年轮年表。年表的平均序列相关系数为0.52,平均敏感度为0.27,信噪比为25.70。这表明,所建立的年表序列包含了较丰富的环境变化信息,适合树木年轮气候学的研究。
(2)通过分析马尾松径向生长与气候因子变化的相关和响应关系,发现马尾松标准化年轮宽度年表与当年6月份的平均温度呈显著负相关,与7～9月份的平均温度呈显著正相关;与上一年11月、当年1月和9月的降水显著负相关,而与当年4月降水呈显著正相关;与当年1月和9月的湿润指数显著负相关,而与当年4月湿润指数呈显著正相关;与上一年12月、当年1月、2月、4月、6月、7月、9月及11月月平均最低温度呈显著负相关;与当年4月和6月的月平均最高温度呈显著负相关。
(3)通过对分宜气象站全年各个月份、不同月份组合及季节的气候因子与马尾松综合STD年表和RES年表的相关分析得出,在大岗山地区,生长季7～9月份的平均温度、降水及空气湿润指数与马尾松STD年表的相关系数和响应系数较高,采用回归分析方法,分别建立了温度重建方程Y=1.434X + 25.320、降水重建方程Y=e(-0.308X+5.115)和湿润指数重建方程Y=-1.592X + 6.187。且经交叉检验显示,重建方程都具有较好的稳定性,重建结果都是可信的。重建方程分别重建和恢复了大岗山百年来7～9月份的平均温度、降水及空气湿润指数变化序列。
(4)百年来,大岗山地区7～9月份的平均温度经历了3个偏暖阶段:1895～1902年,1908～1926年和1944～1985年,和3个偏冷阶段:1903～1907年,1927～1943年和1986～2008年。重建的平均温度序列在1921年,1937年及1977年发生明显的方差突变。
(5)大岗山地区7～9月份的降水变化在过去的117a中经历了3个偏干阶段:1895～1902年,1908～1926年和1944～1985年,和3个偏湿阶段:1903～1907年,1927～1943年及1986～2008年。重建的降水量序列在1921年,1937年及1977年发生明显的方差突变。
This paper was taking dendroclimatology as the theoretics basic, taking Dagang Mountain as the area of case study and taking Pinus massoniana as the object. Based on the results of correlation and response analysis, we try to reconstruct the last climate change of Dagang Mountain. The main conclusions are summarized as follows:
(1) A 133-year tree-ring standardized chronology was established based on the samples collected from Mt. Dagangshan. Statistical analysis of the chronology showed mean series inter-correlation of 0.52, mean sensitivity of 0.27, and signal-to-noise of 25.70. The results indicated that the tree-ring chronology records more information of environmental changes. And the tree-ring chronology was fit for the dendroclimatologic study.
(2) The correlation and response analysis show that the standard tree-ring chronologies was positively correlated with temperature from July to September and April precipitation and moisture index of the current year, and was negatively correlated with June mean temperature, January and September precipitation and index, January, February, April, June, July, September and November mean minimum temperature and April and June mean maximum temperature.
(3) Comparing with the month change and the season change, the STD chronology had higher correlation coefficient with mean temperature, precipitation and moisture index from July to September of the current year. By using stepwise regression analysis, we established the temperature reconstruction equation Y=1.434X + 25.320, precipitation reconstruction equation Y= e(-0.308X+5.115) and moisture index reconstruction equation Y= -1.592X + 6.187. The July-September mean temperature, precipitation and moisture index were reconstructed for the past 117 years, and the reconstructions were stable as evaluated by crossing-test.
(4) The reconstruction shows that the July-September mean temperature had experienced three warm periods 1895-1902, 1908-1926 and 1944-1985, and three cold periods 1903-1907, 1927-1943 and 1986-2008. The mean temperature series had abrupt changes in years 1921, 1937 and 1977.
(5) The reconstruction shows that the July-September precipitation had experienced three dry periods 1895-1902, 1908-1926 and 1944-1985, and three wet periods 1903-1907, 1927-1943 and 1986-2008. The precipitation series had abrupt changes in years 1921, 1937 and 1977.
引文
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