全球石油峰值预测及中国应对策略研究
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摘要
本论文重新定义了石油峰值：石油峰值并非石油耗竭，而是经济性可采石油产量增长率降至0（或趋于0），峰值产量后产量下滑，高油价将成为常态。对全球传统大油田产量、石油成本、储量与产量增长率、上游投资与新增储量比等的分析均证实全球石油峰值正逐渐临近。
最终可采资源量值（URR）是石油峰值预测结果不同的原因之一。论文证实URR值约为4700Gb(109桶)，且为动态变化值。在URR的确定中，重点对储量增长与待发现资源量进行了研究。对美国地质调查局（USGS）2000年与2012年的储量增长预测模型及结果进行了对比研究，证实USGS不同时期的储量增长模型尽管存在夸大储量的缺陷，但仍最具权威性。新模型个体聚集分析模型证实全球常规石油的储量增长为723Gb。待发现资源量的确定建立在USGS预测方法论研究基础之上，证实全球(除美国)待发现资源量为732Gb（2012年评估），与2000年的结果相比减少了12.9%。
在URR确定的基础上，应用单循环与多循环Hubbert模型、广义翁氏模型分别对全球石油峰值进行了预测，并对最终结果进行了对比研究，证实多循环Hubbert模型预测结果更符合稀缺性资源的产量及历史产量波动规律，也一定程度上克服了其夸大未来峰值产量的缺陷。研究发现：全球石油峰值期在2037年左右，峰值产量约42Gb。并结合预测结果，预测了全球石油供需平衡（2012-2035年），这一期间全球的石油供需仍基本平衡，但随着峰值临近，到2035年，全球石油的供需差会缩小至1.274Gb，中国产量与需求差将进一步扩大至2.885Gb，对外依存度将达到60.5%。
在石油峰值预测的基础之上，论文系统评估了全球石油峰值对中国经济发展的影响机制：全球石油峰值会导致石油生产的边际收益率日益下降直至0，中国可获得的低成本的石油供应量逐步减少，而实证表明中国本土石油产量与消费量同GDP之间缺乏协调机制，石油EROI值将低于10:1这一水平，低EROI值与高石油成本等因素的协同作用使高油价成为一种常态，虽通过历史数据分析，认为当前经济发展和石油需求量对高油价具更高容忍力，但通过实证表明，国际油价若每增加1%，仍会对中国的GDP产生-0.11%的负面影响。
论文最后提出了中国应对全球石油峰值策略：在供应角度，限制本土陆上石油产能增幅以保护本土石油资源；增加海域石油供应量。在替代能源方面，考虑中国实际资源国情，推广坑口煤电厂的发展。从石油金融角度，首次创新性提出逐步建立和完善“一主体，四分中心”的国际石油交易平台的构想。
The paper redefined the Peak Oil based on literatures research that Peak oilwhich is not oil exhaustion means economical recoverable oil production growthdrops to zero (or close to0). Global oil production declined after reaching a peakoutput, and higher oil prices will become the norm. As global traditional GiantOilfields gradually are stepping into peak plateau period, other factors such as risingoil upstream costs caused by recovery difficulties, reserves and production growthrate gradually declined, the ratio between spending and reserve growth, etc. prove thatglobal peak oil is gradually approaching.
The differences of Ultimately Recovery Resources value (URR) is one of themost important causes of various prediction. The dissertation estimated global URRvalue is about4700Gb, which is a dynamic value..The U.S. Geological Survey2000and2012reserve growth prediction model results were compared and confirmedreserves of different periods of growth model USGS reserves. Compared theprediction results based on The U.S. Geological Survey2000and2012reservegrowth prediction model proved that the new model of individual aggregates growthanalysis model confirmed the potential reserve growth value is about worldwide is723Gb despite the exaggerated flaws, but still the most authoritative. Determine theUndiscovered Oil Resources to be found in the USGS prediction methodologyconfirmed that value of the world (exclude the U.S) around732Gb, decreased by12.9%compared with the2000results.
Applied Single-Cycle Hubbert, Multi-Cycle Hubbert, Generalized Weng modelto predict oil production based on URR value estimated, and conducted a comparativestudy research proved that multi-cycle Hubbert model is in line with historical oilproduction data fluctuations, but also to a certain extent overcome exaggerated futurepeak production. Peak time will happen in2037and peak production around42Gbbased on Multi-Cycle model. The dissertation predicted the balance of global oilsupply and demand and believed that the global oil supply basically meet the demandfor oil to2035case projections (1.274Gb) based on this model. As peak oilapproaching, the difference between supply and demand will gradually shrink from2025, while the difference of Chinese oil production and demand is still expanding to2.885Gb，and chinese petroleum dependence degree will be60.5%.
Based on peak oil forecast, the paper evaluated the impact mechanism of peak oil for Chinese economic development. Peak oil can lead to the supply of economicalresources decline, and the marginal revenue of oil production gradually close to0, thatmeans oil supply available in low cost gradually is reducing. China's domestic oilproduction, consumption and GDP growth lack coordination mechanism based onempirical study.The EROI of China will be lower than10:1. Lower EROI andincreasing higher oil costs and other factors all make higher oil price will be the norm,while oil price grow1%, the GDP of China will be influenced by-0.11%on the basisof empirical study.
The last section provided some solutions. Do not expand the traditional giantoilfields production capacity, limiting the growth of domestic production is theprimary task to deal with the Peak Oil. The increase of the supply of offshore oil is theimportant guarantee to Chinese oil resources security. As to energy transition, promotethe construction of pit coal plants is a realistic choice. In terms of petroleum finance,the new concept of “a center, four sub-centers” can gradually change the currentpassive situation of China.
最终可采资源量值（URR）是石油峰值预测结果不同的原因之一。论文证实URR值约为4700Gb(109桶)，且为动态变化值。在URR的确定中，重点对储量增长与待发现资源量进行了研究。对美国地质调查局（USGS）2000年与2012年的储量增长预测模型及结果进行了对比研究，证实USGS不同时期的储量增长模型尽管存在夸大储量的缺陷，但仍最具权威性。新模型个体聚集分析模型证实全球常规石油的储量增长为723Gb。待发现资源量的确定建立在USGS预测方法论研究基础之上，证实全球(除美国)待发现资源量为732Gb（2012年评估），与2000年的结果相比减少了12.9%。
在URR确定的基础上，应用单循环与多循环Hubbert模型、广义翁氏模型分别对全球石油峰值进行了预测，并对最终结果进行了对比研究，证实多循环Hubbert模型预测结果更符合稀缺性资源的产量及历史产量波动规律，也一定程度上克服了其夸大未来峰值产量的缺陷。研究发现：全球石油峰值期在2037年左右，峰值产量约42Gb。并结合预测结果，预测了全球石油供需平衡（2012-2035年），这一期间全球的石油供需仍基本平衡，但随着峰值临近，到2035年，全球石油的供需差会缩小至1.274Gb，中国产量与需求差将进一步扩大至2.885Gb，对外依存度将达到60.5%。
在石油峰值预测的基础之上，论文系统评估了全球石油峰值对中国经济发展的影响机制：全球石油峰值会导致石油生产的边际收益率日益下降直至0，中国可获得的低成本的石油供应量逐步减少，而实证表明中国本土石油产量与消费量同GDP之间缺乏协调机制，石油EROI值将低于10:1这一水平，低EROI值与高石油成本等因素的协同作用使高油价成为一种常态，虽通过历史数据分析，认为当前经济发展和石油需求量对高油价具更高容忍力，但通过实证表明，国际油价若每增加1%，仍会对中国的GDP产生-0.11%的负面影响。
论文最后提出了中国应对全球石油峰值策略：在供应角度，限制本土陆上石油产能增幅以保护本土石油资源；增加海域石油供应量。在替代能源方面，考虑中国实际资源国情，推广坑口煤电厂的发展。从石油金融角度，首次创新性提出逐步建立和完善“一主体，四分中心”的国际石油交易平台的构想。
The paper redefined the Peak Oil based on literatures research that Peak oilwhich is not oil exhaustion means economical recoverable oil production growthdrops to zero (or close to0). Global oil production declined after reaching a peakoutput, and higher oil prices will become the norm. As global traditional GiantOilfields gradually are stepping into peak plateau period, other factors such as risingoil upstream costs caused by recovery difficulties, reserves and production growthrate gradually declined, the ratio between spending and reserve growth, etc. prove thatglobal peak oil is gradually approaching.
The differences of Ultimately Recovery Resources value (URR) is one of themost important causes of various prediction. The dissertation estimated global URRvalue is about4700Gb, which is a dynamic value..The U.S. Geological Survey2000and2012reserve growth prediction model results were compared and confirmedreserves of different periods of growth model USGS reserves. Compared theprediction results based on The U.S. Geological Survey2000and2012reservegrowth prediction model proved that the new model of individual aggregates growthanalysis model confirmed the potential reserve growth value is about worldwide is723Gb despite the exaggerated flaws, but still the most authoritative. Determine theUndiscovered Oil Resources to be found in the USGS prediction methodologyconfirmed that value of the world (exclude the U.S) around732Gb, decreased by12.9%compared with the2000results.
Applied Single-Cycle Hubbert, Multi-Cycle Hubbert, Generalized Weng modelto predict oil production based on URR value estimated, and conducted a comparativestudy research proved that multi-cycle Hubbert model is in line with historical oilproduction data fluctuations, but also to a certain extent overcome exaggerated futurepeak production. Peak time will happen in2037and peak production around42Gbbased on Multi-Cycle model. The dissertation predicted the balance of global oilsupply and demand and believed that the global oil supply basically meet the demandfor oil to2035case projections (1.274Gb) based on this model. As peak oilapproaching, the difference between supply and demand will gradually shrink from2025, while the difference of Chinese oil production and demand is still expanding to2.885Gb，and chinese petroleum dependence degree will be60.5%.
Based on peak oil forecast, the paper evaluated the impact mechanism of peak oil for Chinese economic development. Peak oil can lead to the supply of economicalresources decline, and the marginal revenue of oil production gradually close to0, thatmeans oil supply available in low cost gradually is reducing. China's domestic oilproduction, consumption and GDP growth lack coordination mechanism based onempirical study.The EROI of China will be lower than10:1. Lower EROI andincreasing higher oil costs and other factors all make higher oil price will be the norm,while oil price grow1%, the GDP of China will be influenced by-0.11%on the basisof empirical study.
The last section provided some solutions. Do not expand the traditional giantoilfields production capacity, limiting the growth of domestic production is theprimary task to deal with the Peak Oil. The increase of the supply of offshore oil is theimportant guarantee to Chinese oil resources security. As to energy transition, promotethe construction of pit coal plants is a realistic choice. In terms of petroleum finance,the new concept of “a center, four sub-centers” can gradually change the currentpassive situation of China.
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