大沽河流域氮磷关键源区识别及整治措施研究
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摘要
自2006年开始实施国家陆源污染物总量控制管理以来，青岛市同步实施了陆源污染物减排措施，但黄海尤其是胶州湾水质并没有同步改善。造成污染物减排与水质改善严重脱节的一个主要原因是现行的青岛市陆源污染物排海通量核算只局限于工业等点源，没有囊括农业等非点源。大沽河流域占青岛市陆域面积的45%，是胶州湾陆源污染物的最大来源。因为非点源和点源的构成、分布、相互作用等复杂原因，只有将两者纳入同一个计算构架如分布式非点源模型中，才能详尽地描述大沽河流域氮、磷排放数量分布、构成和关键源区等。因此，本论文研究目的是针对大沽河流域氮、磷污染物总量控制管理中，排放数量核算方法不完备的突出问题，给出基于SWAT模型的既符合非点源时空变化规律，又与点源密切联系的陆源污染物排放核算方法，在此基础上系统揭示大沽河流域氮、磷排放数量、分布和关键区，并初步提出大沽河流域氮、磷的环境整治的措施。主要研究内容和结论如下：
1.大沽河流域氮磷排放数量现场监测与统计分析
2011年9月进行的大沽河流域现场监测表明，大沽河流域无机氮、磷排放量与排放密度较大的区域都位于大沽河流域中上游地区。2012年7月～8月进行的大沽河上游小流域监测表明，氮、磷排放与降雨量、降雨频次以及农业生产活动密切相关。基于全国第一次污染源普查数据的排放数量统计表明，大沽河流域的工业源、生活源、服务业源、农业源的总氮和总磷的比例分别为：5.18%、2.93%和17.12%、12.39%和0.55%、0.66%和77.15%、84.02%。各污染源的排放密度空间差异明显。
2.基于SWAT的大沽河流域氮磷污染物排放数量模拟计算
（1）构建SWAT模型数据库与子流域划分。数据库包括数字高程（DEM）、土地利用、土壤类型、气象数据、污染源等数据库。应用SWAT时，将流域内工业、城镇生活点源叠加到相应子流域的河道中；将畜禽养殖、农村生活非点源以化肥施用的形式叠加到相应子流域的耕地中。在数字高程的基础上，将大沽河流域一共划分了35个子流域。
（2）模型校准、验证与模拟计算。通过历史监测数据以及本论文现场监测数据对SWAT模型进行校准和验证，评价指标决定系数（R~2）和Nash-Suttcliffe系数(Ens)都在0.5以上，表明SWAT模型对大沽河流域的模拟计算具有较好适用性。SWAT模型模拟计算表明，2002年～2012年期间，有机氮、无机氮和总氮年平均排放量分别为：324.2t、2271.0t和2595.2t；有机磷、无机磷和总磷年平均排放量分别为：20.4t、385.9t和406.3t；月均变化都表现为“倒V”型的形式，丰水期的总氮和总磷分别占年均排放量的75.6%和84.3%；枯水期总氮和总磷仅仅只占年均排放数量的1.5%和1.2%。
3.大沽河流域氮磷关键源区识别及其污染特征分析
（1）大沽河流域氮磷排放空间分布与构成。2002年～2012年平均排放密度计算结果表明，大沽河流域35个子流域的总氮和总磷排放密度呈现出明显的空间差异，总氮和总磷排放密度较大的地区分布在大沽河上游、小沽河、五沽河以及流浩河等地区。全流域总氮和总磷排放密度平均值为1661.8Kg/km~2和74Kg/km~2。污染构成分析表明，人类生产活动的总氮和总磷占全流域总氮和总磷排放的69%和58%，其中化肥流失和畜禽养殖废物排放分别占了人为来源总氮的49.9%和29.6%，总磷的41.4%和40.3%。这说明，大沽河流域主要的总氮和总磷污染源是由人类生产活动所形成的非点源，特别是种植业化肥流失、畜禽废弃物排放等。
（2）大沽河流域氮磷关键源区识别。SWAT模拟计算表明，大沽河流域土壤侵蚀较小，87%的区域小于500t/（km~2·a），属微度侵蚀，其余13%为500～2500t/（km~2·a），属轻度侵蚀。与总氮侵蚀分级标准对比表明，大沽河流域27.4%的区域总氮排放密度大于2000Kg/（km~2·a），属于氮的关键排放源区，关键排放源区的总氮排放量占了全流域总氮排放量的36.1%。大部分关键排放源区的氮来源于耕地种植业区，其土壤类型主要是潜育土和淋溶土。结果显示，大沽河流域不存在磷的关键排放源区。进一步根据大沽河流域35个子流域对大沽河河口总氮和总磷贡献率分析可知，五沽河地区贡献率都是最大的，可以看成是影响胶州湾水质的关键影响源区。
4.大沽河流域环境整治措施模拟评价及整治措施方案
根据《大沽河流域保护与空间利用总体规划》设置和模拟评价了六种措施对大沽河流域氮、磷污染整治的效果。结果表明，化肥削减整治、畜禽养殖整治，特别是退耕还林整治是大沽河流域有效的氮、磷污染环境整治措施方案。分别实施化肥削减50%、畜禽排放削减70%和在大沽河中上游丘林区退耕还林30%三种措施时，大沽河流域氮的关键源区都基本消失，而控制工业排放或农村污水排放，则效果较差。实际情况下，结合六种措施，关键源区将全部消失，大沽河总氮入海通量减少近80%，总磷减少近70%，整治措施效果明显，也有望明显改善胶州湾水质。
本文的科学创新点主要是基于SWAT模型的大沽河流域非点源和点源叠加的氮、磷排放数量的核算，并在此基础上科学全面地识别了大沽河流域氮、磷关键排放源区和对胶州湾水质影响较大的关键影响源区。研究特色主要是基于SWAT模型的效果模拟，初步提出了大沽河流域氮、磷污染环境整治措施方案。
Anthropogenic discharge of pollutants in Qingdao, e.g., nitrogen and COD, hasbeen dramastically reduced since the implementation of a plan for controlling thedischarge of land-source pollutants in2006. However, the water quality of JiaozhouBay has not been significantly improved yet till now. This is reasonable as onlypoint-source discharge of pollutants was reduced, while no change was made on theagriculture, rural life and the other non-point sources. Dagu watershed accounted for45%of the land areas of Qingdao City and it is the largest source of pollutants forJiaozhou Bay. Qingdao City developed the “Dagu Watershed Protection and SpaceUse Planning” in2011, and introduced “2013-2015Jiaozhou Bay Watershed PollutionRemediation Action Plan" in2013. Both plans take agriculture, rural life and othernon-point sources as the objects of environmental remediation of the Dagu RiverBasin. The composition and distribution of non-point and point sources are verycomplicated. Therefore, it is necessary to put non-point sources and point sources intothe same framework in order to calculating the total discharge of pollutants andindentifying the critical source areas of non-point sources. Distributed non-pointsource model, such as SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), is a useful tool in thisarea. The major objectives of this thesis is to develop a method for calculating theno-point and point discharge of nitrogen and phosphorus in Dagu watershed, tocalculate the discharge amount of nitrogen and phosphorus and identify the criticalsource areas in Dagu watershed, and to propose several feasible environmentalremediation measures for controlling nitrogen and phosphorus pollution. The maincontents and conclusions are as follows:
1. Field observations and statistical analysis of nitrogen and phosphorus dischargeamounts in Dagu watershed.
Field monitoring data show that the middle and upper reaches of Dagu River hada larger discharge of nitrogen and phosphorus in terms of both discharge amount and discharge density (Kg/km~2). In addition, observations in the upstream watershed areasindicate that the discharge of nitrogen and phosphorus are closely related to rainfall,rainfall frequency, as well as agricultural production activities. Statistical analysis ofnitrogen and phosphorus emission amount of Dagu watershed shows that industrialsource, life source, service industry source and agricultural source account for5.18%and2.93%,17.12%and12.39%,0.55%and0.66%,77.15%and84.02%of the totaldischarge of nitrogen and phosphorus, respectively. The emission density of eachsource presents a significant spatial pattern.
2. Calculation of the discharge amounts of nitrogen and phosphorus in Daguwatershed by SWAT mode
（1）The SWAT required database of Dagu watershed and subbasin delineation.The required data include the Digital Elevation Model (DEM), land use/land covertype map, soil type map, meteorological data, pollution source information and someother data. During the development of the SWAT model in Dagu watershed, nitrogenand phosphorus from the industrial source and urban living source are thought to bedirectly discharged into the river.Animal waste, rural livingsources were are treated aschemical fertilizer applied in each subbasin. The Dagu watershed was divided into35subbasins.
（2）Model calibration, validation and simulation. The developed SWAT modelin Dagu watershed was calibrated and validated by the historical investigation dataand field monitoring data obtained in this study. The results showed that thedeveloped SWAT model simulated the field monitoring data very well (Ens>0.5andR~2>0.5). The model was then used to calculate the discharge of nitrogen andphosphorus in Dagu watershed. The annually average discharge amounts of organicnitrogen, inorganic nitrogen and total nitrogen from2002to2012were calculated tobe324.2t,2271.t and2595.2t, respectively. The annually average discharge amountsof organic phosphorus, inorganic phosphorus and total phosphorus were calculated tobe20.4t,385.9t and406.3t, separately. In addition, the monthly variation of nitrogenand phosphorus discharge followed an “inverted V” pattern, with a peak appearing inwet season. The discharge of total nitrogen and total phosphorus in wet seasonaccounted for75.6%and84.3%of the annual discharge of nitrogen and phosphorus.3. The distribution of critical source areas in Dagu watershed and their pollution
characteristics.
（1）Spatial distribution and constitution of sources of nitrogen and phosphorus inthe Dagu watershed. Model simulation results show that the average annual dischargedensities of total nitrogen and total phosphorus in35subbasins have a significantspatial pattern, with the highest value appeared in the upstream areas, e.g., XaioguRiver, Wugu River and Liuhao River subbasins. The average discharge density oftotal nitrogen and total phosphorus in Dagu watershed were1661.8Kg/km~2and74Kg/km~2, respectively. The results also show that human activities were the mainsources of nitrogen and phosphorus in this area (69%(nitrogen) and58%(phosphorus)). Fertilizer loss and animal waste accounted for49.9%and29.6%of thetotal nitrogen from human activities respectively,41.4%and40.3%of totalphosphorus from human activities respectively.
（2）Identification of the critical source areas in Dagu watershed. Soil erosiondensity was calculated in each subbasin. This parameter was calculated to be lowerthan500t/(km~2·a)(slight erosion) in around87%of Dagu watershed.13%of Daguarea is under mild erosion, with a erosion density between500and2500t/(km~2·a).According to the total nitrogen erosion classification standard,27.4%of Daguwatershed is the critical source areas, and the total nitrogen discharge amounts fromthese critical source areas accounted for36.1%of the total nitrogen discharge in Daguwatershed. Farmland is the main source of total nitrogen in the critical source areas,and gleysols and luvisols are the main soil type. Moreover, the contributions of eachsubbasin to the discharge of total nitrogen and total phosphorus from Dagu River toJiaozhou Bay were calculated. The results suggested that the Wugu River regioncontributes the largest to overall discharge of both nutrients to Jiaozhou Bay.
4. The establishment of feasible Environmental Remediation Measures of nitrogenand phosphorus in Dagu watershed
A variety of environmental remediation measures proposed in “Dagu WatershedProtection and space use planning” were tested by using the developed SWAT modelin Dagu watershed. The results show that reducing the use of fertilizer, and animalwaste, and restoring farmland to forest would be the most feasible environmentalremediation measures in Dagu watershed.
In this study, we established a method for calculating the non-point source andpoint source discharge amounts of nitrogen and phosporusin Dagu watershed usingSWAT model. On the basis of this method, the critical source areas of Dagu watershed and critical areas affecting the water quality of Jiaozhou Bay were identified. Inaddition, seaveral feasible Environmental Remediation Measures has been made andvalidated by the model to improve the pollution of nitrogen and phosphorus in Daguwatershed.
1.大沽河流域氮磷排放数量现场监测与统计分析
2011年9月进行的大沽河流域现场监测表明，大沽河流域无机氮、磷排放量与排放密度较大的区域都位于大沽河流域中上游地区。2012年7月～8月进行的大沽河上游小流域监测表明，氮、磷排放与降雨量、降雨频次以及农业生产活动密切相关。基于全国第一次污染源普查数据的排放数量统计表明，大沽河流域的工业源、生活源、服务业源、农业源的总氮和总磷的比例分别为：5.18%、2.93%和17.12%、12.39%和0.55%、0.66%和77.15%、84.02%。各污染源的排放密度空间差异明显。
2.基于SWAT的大沽河流域氮磷污染物排放数量模拟计算
（1）构建SWAT模型数据库与子流域划分。数据库包括数字高程（DEM）、土地利用、土壤类型、气象数据、污染源等数据库。应用SWAT时，将流域内工业、城镇生活点源叠加到相应子流域的河道中；将畜禽养殖、农村生活非点源以化肥施用的形式叠加到相应子流域的耕地中。在数字高程的基础上，将大沽河流域一共划分了35个子流域。
（2）模型校准、验证与模拟计算。通过历史监测数据以及本论文现场监测数据对SWAT模型进行校准和验证，评价指标决定系数（R~2）和Nash-Suttcliffe系数(Ens)都在0.5以上，表明SWAT模型对大沽河流域的模拟计算具有较好适用性。SWAT模型模拟计算表明，2002年～2012年期间，有机氮、无机氮和总氮年平均排放量分别为：324.2t、2271.0t和2595.2t；有机磷、无机磷和总磷年平均排放量分别为：20.4t、385.9t和406.3t；月均变化都表现为“倒V”型的形式，丰水期的总氮和总磷分别占年均排放量的75.6%和84.3%；枯水期总氮和总磷仅仅只占年均排放数量的1.5%和1.2%。
3.大沽河流域氮磷关键源区识别及其污染特征分析
（1）大沽河流域氮磷排放空间分布与构成。2002年～2012年平均排放密度计算结果表明，大沽河流域35个子流域的总氮和总磷排放密度呈现出明显的空间差异，总氮和总磷排放密度较大的地区分布在大沽河上游、小沽河、五沽河以及流浩河等地区。全流域总氮和总磷排放密度平均值为1661.8Kg/km~2和74Kg/km~2。污染构成分析表明，人类生产活动的总氮和总磷占全流域总氮和总磷排放的69%和58%，其中化肥流失和畜禽养殖废物排放分别占了人为来源总氮的49.9%和29.6%，总磷的41.4%和40.3%。这说明，大沽河流域主要的总氮和总磷污染源是由人类生产活动所形成的非点源，特别是种植业化肥流失、畜禽废弃物排放等。
（2）大沽河流域氮磷关键源区识别。SWAT模拟计算表明，大沽河流域土壤侵蚀较小，87%的区域小于500t/（km~2·a），属微度侵蚀，其余13%为500～2500t/（km~2·a），属轻度侵蚀。与总氮侵蚀分级标准对比表明，大沽河流域27.4%的区域总氮排放密度大于2000Kg/（km~2·a），属于氮的关键排放源区，关键排放源区的总氮排放量占了全流域总氮排放量的36.1%。大部分关键排放源区的氮来源于耕地种植业区，其土壤类型主要是潜育土和淋溶土。结果显示，大沽河流域不存在磷的关键排放源区。进一步根据大沽河流域35个子流域对大沽河河口总氮和总磷贡献率分析可知，五沽河地区贡献率都是最大的，可以看成是影响胶州湾水质的关键影响源区。
4.大沽河流域环境整治措施模拟评价及整治措施方案
根据《大沽河流域保护与空间利用总体规划》设置和模拟评价了六种措施对大沽河流域氮、磷污染整治的效果。结果表明，化肥削减整治、畜禽养殖整治，特别是退耕还林整治是大沽河流域有效的氮、磷污染环境整治措施方案。分别实施化肥削减50%、畜禽排放削减70%和在大沽河中上游丘林区退耕还林30%三种措施时，大沽河流域氮的关键源区都基本消失，而控制工业排放或农村污水排放，则效果较差。实际情况下，结合六种措施，关键源区将全部消失，大沽河总氮入海通量减少近80%，总磷减少近70%，整治措施效果明显，也有望明显改善胶州湾水质。
本文的科学创新点主要是基于SWAT模型的大沽河流域非点源和点源叠加的氮、磷排放数量的核算，并在此基础上科学全面地识别了大沽河流域氮、磷关键排放源区和对胶州湾水质影响较大的关键影响源区。研究特色主要是基于SWAT模型的效果模拟，初步提出了大沽河流域氮、磷污染环境整治措施方案。
Anthropogenic discharge of pollutants in Qingdao, e.g., nitrogen and COD, hasbeen dramastically reduced since the implementation of a plan for controlling thedischarge of land-source pollutants in2006. However, the water quality of JiaozhouBay has not been significantly improved yet till now. This is reasonable as onlypoint-source discharge of pollutants was reduced, while no change was made on theagriculture, rural life and the other non-point sources. Dagu watershed accounted for45%of the land areas of Qingdao City and it is the largest source of pollutants forJiaozhou Bay. Qingdao City developed the “Dagu Watershed Protection and SpaceUse Planning” in2011, and introduced “2013-2015Jiaozhou Bay Watershed PollutionRemediation Action Plan" in2013. Both plans take agriculture, rural life and othernon-point sources as the objects of environmental remediation of the Dagu RiverBasin. The composition and distribution of non-point and point sources are verycomplicated. Therefore, it is necessary to put non-point sources and point sources intothe same framework in order to calculating the total discharge of pollutants andindentifying the critical source areas of non-point sources. Distributed non-pointsource model, such as SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), is a useful tool in thisarea. The major objectives of this thesis is to develop a method for calculating theno-point and point discharge of nitrogen and phosphorus in Dagu watershed, tocalculate the discharge amount of nitrogen and phosphorus and identify the criticalsource areas in Dagu watershed, and to propose several feasible environmentalremediation measures for controlling nitrogen and phosphorus pollution. The maincontents and conclusions are as follows:
1. Field observations and statistical analysis of nitrogen and phosphorus dischargeamounts in Dagu watershed.
Field monitoring data show that the middle and upper reaches of Dagu River hada larger discharge of nitrogen and phosphorus in terms of both discharge amount and discharge density (Kg/km~2). In addition, observations in the upstream watershed areasindicate that the discharge of nitrogen and phosphorus are closely related to rainfall,rainfall frequency, as well as agricultural production activities. Statistical analysis ofnitrogen and phosphorus emission amount of Dagu watershed shows that industrialsource, life source, service industry source and agricultural source account for5.18%and2.93%,17.12%and12.39%,0.55%and0.66%,77.15%and84.02%of the totaldischarge of nitrogen and phosphorus, respectively. The emission density of eachsource presents a significant spatial pattern.
2. Calculation of the discharge amounts of nitrogen and phosphorus in Daguwatershed by SWAT mode
（1）The SWAT required database of Dagu watershed and subbasin delineation.The required data include the Digital Elevation Model (DEM), land use/land covertype map, soil type map, meteorological data, pollution source information and someother data. During the development of the SWAT model in Dagu watershed, nitrogenand phosphorus from the industrial source and urban living source are thought to bedirectly discharged into the river.Animal waste, rural livingsources were are treated aschemical fertilizer applied in each subbasin. The Dagu watershed was divided into35subbasins.
（2）Model calibration, validation and simulation. The developed SWAT modelin Dagu watershed was calibrated and validated by the historical investigation dataand field monitoring data obtained in this study. The results showed that thedeveloped SWAT model simulated the field monitoring data very well (Ens>0.5andR~2>0.5). The model was then used to calculate the discharge of nitrogen andphosphorus in Dagu watershed. The annually average discharge amounts of organicnitrogen, inorganic nitrogen and total nitrogen from2002to2012were calculated tobe324.2t,2271.t and2595.2t, respectively. The annually average discharge amountsof organic phosphorus, inorganic phosphorus and total phosphorus were calculated tobe20.4t,385.9t and406.3t, separately. In addition, the monthly variation of nitrogenand phosphorus discharge followed an “inverted V” pattern, with a peak appearing inwet season. The discharge of total nitrogen and total phosphorus in wet seasonaccounted for75.6%and84.3%of the annual discharge of nitrogen and phosphorus.3. The distribution of critical source areas in Dagu watershed and their pollution
characteristics.
（1）Spatial distribution and constitution of sources of nitrogen and phosphorus inthe Dagu watershed. Model simulation results show that the average annual dischargedensities of total nitrogen and total phosphorus in35subbasins have a significantspatial pattern, with the highest value appeared in the upstream areas, e.g., XaioguRiver, Wugu River and Liuhao River subbasins. The average discharge density oftotal nitrogen and total phosphorus in Dagu watershed were1661.8Kg/km~2and74Kg/km~2, respectively. The results also show that human activities were the mainsources of nitrogen and phosphorus in this area (69%(nitrogen) and58%(phosphorus)). Fertilizer loss and animal waste accounted for49.9%and29.6%of thetotal nitrogen from human activities respectively,41.4%and40.3%of totalphosphorus from human activities respectively.
（2）Identification of the critical source areas in Dagu watershed. Soil erosiondensity was calculated in each subbasin. This parameter was calculated to be lowerthan500t/(km~2·a)(slight erosion) in around87%of Dagu watershed.13%of Daguarea is under mild erosion, with a erosion density between500and2500t/(km~2·a).According to the total nitrogen erosion classification standard,27.4%of Daguwatershed is the critical source areas, and the total nitrogen discharge amounts fromthese critical source areas accounted for36.1%of the total nitrogen discharge in Daguwatershed. Farmland is the main source of total nitrogen in the critical source areas,and gleysols and luvisols are the main soil type. Moreover, the contributions of eachsubbasin to the discharge of total nitrogen and total phosphorus from Dagu River toJiaozhou Bay were calculated. The results suggested that the Wugu River regioncontributes the largest to overall discharge of both nutrients to Jiaozhou Bay.
4. The establishment of feasible Environmental Remediation Measures of nitrogenand phosphorus in Dagu watershed
A variety of environmental remediation measures proposed in “Dagu WatershedProtection and space use planning” were tested by using the developed SWAT modelin Dagu watershed. The results show that reducing the use of fertilizer, and animalwaste, and restoring farmland to forest would be the most feasible environmentalremediation measures in Dagu watershed.
In this study, we established a method for calculating the non-point source andpoint source discharge amounts of nitrogen and phosporusin Dagu watershed usingSWAT model. On the basis of this method, the critical source areas of Dagu watershed and critical areas affecting the water quality of Jiaozhou Bay were identified. Inaddition, seaveral feasible Environmental Remediation Measures has been made andvalidated by the model to improve the pollution of nitrogen and phosphorus in Daguwatershed.
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