电力市场模式下水电厂运营管理研究
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摘要
随着我国社会主义市场经济体制的建立和完善，电力工业打破垄断，引入竞争，已是大势所趋。发电侧电力市场的开放将是我国电力体制改革迈出的重要一步，它对水电厂的经营管理将产生重大影响。因此，研究电力市场模式下水电厂的优化运行和管理，对于充分利用水能资源，提高水电厂经济效益，具有重要的理论意义和实用价值。本文就此展开研究，取得了以下几方面的成果：
(1)首先对国外电力市场的模式及其特点进行了分析和总结，概括出了两种典型模式和市场发育的四个基本阶段。在此基础上，对适合我国国情的电力市场模式进行了探讨，为研究市场条件下水电厂的运营管理提供了理论基础。
(2)为适应电力市场模式下电力期货和现货交易的需要，本文提出了考虑宏观国民经济指标的期货电量预测模型，包括：一阶自回归模型、灰色模型、线性回归模型和神经网络模型；并提出了考虑市场因素的现货交易边际电价预测模型：自回归滑动平均模型和神经网络模型，取得了比纯时间序列预测模型更好的效果。
(3)与计划经济背景相比，电力市场条件下的水电厂优化运行不仅要考虑来水，还需考虑电价因素，结合市场需求情况，本文提出以经济收益最大为目标的梯级水电厂经济运行模型，并进行了实例研究，取得了较好的应用效果。
(4)针对发电侧电力市场的运行规则，本文以市场预测技术、报价策略、电厂经济运行理论及现代计算机技术为基础，开发出基于Windows及WindowsNT平台下的发电厂报价决策支持系统，为发电厂在市场运行中提供决策支持服务，具有较好的市场前景。
With the establishment and perfection of social market economy system of our country, it
has already been a great trend for electric industry to break monopoly and introduce competition.
The opening of power plant for power-generation will be an important step in the reform of
power system in our country, which will have great influence on the operation and management
of hydroelectric plant. Therefore, as to fully utilize of water resources and promote the economic
benefits of hydroelectric plant, it is of important theoretical sense and practical value to research
on the optimized operation and management of hydroelectric plant under the mode of power
market. In this paper, researches on this are developed and the results of several aspects are
obtained as follows:
(I) First, analysis and sum-up about the modes of foreign power plant and their
characteristics are carried out, two typical modes and four fundamental stages of market
development are generalized. Based on this, power market mode accommodating to our country's
practical situations is discussed, which provides a theoretical basis for researches on the
operation and management of hydroelectric plant under the conditions of market economy.
(2) To tailor to the demand of power futures and spot transactions under the mode of po~4er
plant, the forecasting model of futures electricity capacity taking account of the indicators of
macroscopic national economy is raised in this paper, which includes: AR(1), GM(l,l), LR.
ANN; in addition, marginal electricity price forecasting mode of spot transactions considering the
market factors is also put forward, which acquires better effects than simple timeliness serial
models do.
(3) Compared with the background of planning economy, the optimized operation of
hydroelectric plant on the condition of power market considers not only the water supply, but also
the factor of electricity price, connecting with the demand of market. In this paper, economic
operation model of stage hydroelectric plant having the maximal economy benefits as its goal is
put forward and field researches are carried out, which obtain better effects of application.
(4) According to the operating principles of power market for power generation, a bidding
decision-making support system of power plant based on Windows and WindowNT is developed,
which has market forecasting techniques, bidding strategies, the economy operating theories and
the modem computer technologies as its basis. It has a promising market perspective in supplying
auxiliary decision-making support services in the operation of power plant.
(1)首先对国外电力市场的模式及其特点进行了分析和总结，概括出了两种典型模式和市场发育的四个基本阶段。在此基础上，对适合我国国情的电力市场模式进行了探讨，为研究市场条件下水电厂的运营管理提供了理论基础。
(2)为适应电力市场模式下电力期货和现货交易的需要，本文提出了考虑宏观国民经济指标的期货电量预测模型，包括：一阶自回归模型、灰色模型、线性回归模型和神经网络模型；并提出了考虑市场因素的现货交易边际电价预测模型：自回归滑动平均模型和神经网络模型，取得了比纯时间序列预测模型更好的效果。
(3)与计划经济背景相比，电力市场条件下的水电厂优化运行不仅要考虑来水，还需考虑电价因素，结合市场需求情况，本文提出以经济收益最大为目标的梯级水电厂经济运行模型，并进行了实例研究，取得了较好的应用效果。
(4)针对发电侧电力市场的运行规则，本文以市场预测技术、报价策略、电厂经济运行理论及现代计算机技术为基础，开发出基于Windows及WindowsNT平台下的发电厂报价决策支持系统，为发电厂在市场运行中提供决策支持服务，具有较好的市场前景。
With the establishment and perfection of social market economy system of our country, it
has already been a great trend for electric industry to break monopoly and introduce competition.
The opening of power plant for power-generation will be an important step in the reform of
power system in our country, which will have great influence on the operation and management
of hydroelectric plant. Therefore, as to fully utilize of water resources and promote the economic
benefits of hydroelectric plant, it is of important theoretical sense and practical value to research
on the optimized operation and management of hydroelectric plant under the mode of power
market. In this paper, researches on this are developed and the results of several aspects are
obtained as follows:
(I) First, analysis and sum-up about the modes of foreign power plant and their
characteristics are carried out, two typical modes and four fundamental stages of market
development are generalized. Based on this, power market mode accommodating to our country's
practical situations is discussed, which provides a theoretical basis for researches on the
operation and management of hydroelectric plant under the conditions of market economy.
(2) To tailor to the demand of power futures and spot transactions under the mode of po~4er
plant, the forecasting model of futures electricity capacity taking account of the indicators of
macroscopic national economy is raised in this paper, which includes: AR(1), GM(l,l), LR.
ANN; in addition, marginal electricity price forecasting mode of spot transactions considering the
market factors is also put forward, which acquires better effects than simple timeliness serial
models do.
(3) Compared with the background of planning economy, the optimized operation of
hydroelectric plant on the condition of power market considers not only the water supply, but also
the factor of electricity price, connecting with the demand of market. In this paper, economic
operation model of stage hydroelectric plant having the maximal economy benefits as its goal is
put forward and field researches are carried out, which obtain better effects of application.
(4) According to the operating principles of power market for power generation, a bidding
decision-making support system of power plant based on Windows and WindowNT is developed,
which has market forecasting techniques, bidding strategies, the economy operating theories and
the modem computer technologies as its basis. It has a promising market perspective in supplying
auxiliary decision-making support services in the operation of power plant.
引文
1、有关国外电力工业改革材料汇编(1999年1月)，摩根士旦利添惠
2、澳大利亚电力竞争的发展趋势(2000年7月)，澳大利亚利普国际集团
3、新西兰电力市场(2000年6月)，新西兰市场公司
4、世界主要国家和地区的电力工业(1997年1月)，原电力工业部政策法规体制司中国电力信息中心
5、国家电力公司出国学习、考察报告选集(1—4篇)，国家电力公司国际合作局
6、国外电力改革考察研究报告选编，国家经贸委电力司中电联调研部
7、英国电力系统，EA(Electricity Association)，英国电力协会
8、国外电力部门的改革与重组，大卫与露西 派克德基金会能源 基金会合盟
9、瑞银华宝国际电力快讯，(1998年4月)
10、中国电力报1991年以来有关国内外电力工业体制与改革文章及信息报道
11、中国电业1991年以来有关国内外电力工业体制与改革文章及信息报道
12、中国电力企业管理1996年以来有关国内外电力工业体制与改革文章
13、电力政策研究1991年以来有关国内外电力工业体制与改革文章
14、国际电力动态1998年以来有关国外电力工业体制与改革信息报道，中国电力信息中心
15、浙江电力市场研究，浙江电力公司
16、中国电力市场的现状与展望，电力系统自动化，2000年2月
17、Caramanis M C,Bohn R E,Schweppe F C.Optimal spot pricing:practice and theory, IEEE trans PAS, 1982;101 (9):3234～3245
18、Siddiqi S N,Baughman M L.Reliability differentiated real-time pricing of electricity. IEEE Trans PWRS, 1993;8(2):548～554
19、Bentley B W. Integrating non-utility generation into the NEPOOL resource planning process. IEEE Trans PWRS, 1998;3(4): 1754～1756
20、MacGregor P R, Puttgen H B.A spot price based control mechaninsm fore electric utility systems with small power producing facilities. IEEE .Trans PWRS, 1991 ;6(2):683-690
21、Kuwahata A,Asano H.Utility-Cogenerator game for pricing power sales and wheeling fees. IEEE Trans PWRS,1994;9(4): 1875～1879
22、Gedra T W, Varaiya P P. Markets and pricing for interruptible electric power, iEEE Trans PWRS, 1993;8(1): 122～128
23、David A K.Modelling risk in energy contracts with investor owned generation. IEE Pt.C, 1994; 141 (1):75～80
24、周纪芗，实用回归分析方法，上海科学技术出版社，1990
25、朱冰静、朱宪辰，预测原理与方法，上海交大出版社，1991
26、刘晨晖，电力系统负荷预报理论与方法，哈尔滨工业大学出版社，1987
27、张世英、张文泉，王京芹，技术经济预测与决策，天津大学出版社，1996
28、杨行峻、郑君里，人工神经网络，高等教育出版社，1992
29、邓聚龙，灰色预测与决策，华中理工大学出版社，1992
30、Niu Dong Xiao,Zhang Wen Wen etc.Adjustment grey Model for Load Forecasting of Power Systems.The Journal of Grey System. 1994(6):127～134
31、牛东晓，城市电力需求的灰色预测模型及其应用，水电能源科学，1991年9月
32、Park DC etal. Electric Load Forecasting Using an Artificial Neural Network. IEEE Transactions on PWRS. 1991.6(2)
33、Park DC etal.An Adaptively Trainable Neural Network Algorithm and Its Application to Electric Load Forecasting.Proc.of ANNPS'91 ,Seattle, 1991.
34、Peng TM etal.Advancement in the Application of Neural Networks for Short-term Load Forecasting. IEEE PES 1991 Summer Meeting,PWRS
35、Peng TM etal.An Adaptive Neural Network Approach to One-week Ahead Load Forecasting. IEEE PES 1992 Summer Meeting,92 SM 407-7 PWRS
36、K-L Ho etal.Short Term Load Forecasting Using a Multilayer Neural Network with an Adaptive Learning Algorithm. IEEE PWRS. 1992.7(1)
37、Hsu YY etal.Design of Artificial Neural Network for short-term Load Forecasting. PartⅠand Part Ⅱ .IEEE Pt C.1991.138(5)
38、S-T Chen,DC Yu,A.R. Moghaddamio. Weather Sensitive short-term Load Forecasting Using Nonfully Connected Artificial Neural Network. IEEE PWRS. 1992.7(3)
39、任震、石志强、何建军等，小波分析及其在电力系统中的应用，全国高校电力系统及其自动化专业第十二届学术年会论文集
40、成平、李国英，投影寻踪—一类新兴的统计方法，应用概率统计，1986，2(3)
41、李钰心，水资源系统运行调度，水利电力出版社，1996
42、张英贵，混联水电站群日优化运行，水力发电学报，1990(1)
43、颜竹丘，水能利用，水利电力出版社，1986
44、赵永龙、常晓青，电力市场模式下的水电调度探讨，中国电力，2000(11)
45. Waight J G,Bose A,Sheble G B.Generation Dispatch with Reserve Margin Constrains Using Linear Programming. IEEE Trans on PAS, 1981,100(1)
46、李朝安，发电厂电力系统经济运行，新疆人民出版社，1984
47、马振华，现代数学应用手册——运筹学及最优化理论卷，清华大学出版社，1998
48、金以慧，过程控制，清华大学出版社，1993
49、孙增圻，智能控制理论与技术，清华大学出版社，1993
50、王常力、廖道文，集散型控制系统的设计与应用，清华大学出版社，1993
51、薛金淮、辛绍平、朱教新，西北电网水调中心自动化系统数据库设计，电力系统自动化，1999(5)
52、朱教新、辛绍平、薛金淮等，西北电网水调中心自动化系统，电力系统自动化，1999(4)
53、丁杰、李晓斌、汤煜命等，电网水调自动化系统，电力系统自动化，1999(9)
54、宋燕敏等，PMOS-2000发电市场技术支持系统概述，电力系统自动化，2000(2)
55、华定中等，电网商业化运营管理与调度系统研究(一)：系统功能设计，电力系统自动化，1998(10)
56、华定中等，电网商业化运营管理与调度系统研究(二)：系统结构设计与实施方案，电力系统自动化，1998(11)
2、澳大利亚电力竞争的发展趋势(2000年7月)，澳大利亚利普国际集团
3、新西兰电力市场(2000年6月)，新西兰市场公司
4、世界主要国家和地区的电力工业(1997年1月)，原电力工业部政策法规体制司中国电力信息中心
5、国家电力公司出国学习、考察报告选集(1—4篇)，国家电力公司国际合作局
6、国外电力改革考察研究报告选编，国家经贸委电力司中电联调研部
7、英国电力系统，EA(Electricity Association)，英国电力协会
8、国外电力部门的改革与重组，大卫与露西 派克德基金会能源 基金会合盟
9、瑞银华宝国际电力快讯，(1998年4月)
10、中国电力报1991年以来有关国内外电力工业体制与改革文章及信息报道
11、中国电业1991年以来有关国内外电力工业体制与改革文章及信息报道
12、中国电力企业管理1996年以来有关国内外电力工业体制与改革文章
13、电力政策研究1991年以来有关国内外电力工业体制与改革文章
14、国际电力动态1998年以来有关国外电力工业体制与改革信息报道，中国电力信息中心
15、浙江电力市场研究，浙江电力公司
16、中国电力市场的现状与展望，电力系统自动化，2000年2月
17、Caramanis M C,Bohn R E,Schweppe F C.Optimal spot pricing:practice and theory, IEEE trans PAS, 1982;101 (9):3234～3245
18、Siddiqi S N,Baughman M L.Reliability differentiated real-time pricing of electricity. IEEE Trans PWRS, 1993;8(2):548～554
19、Bentley B W. Integrating non-utility generation into the NEPOOL resource planning process. IEEE Trans PWRS, 1998;3(4): 1754～1756
20、MacGregor P R, Puttgen H B.A spot price based control mechaninsm fore electric utility systems with small power producing facilities. IEEE .Trans PWRS, 1991 ;6(2):683-690
21、Kuwahata A,Asano H.Utility-Cogenerator game for pricing power sales and wheeling fees. IEEE Trans PWRS,1994;9(4): 1875～1879
22、Gedra T W, Varaiya P P. Markets and pricing for interruptible electric power, iEEE Trans PWRS, 1993;8(1): 122～128
23、David A K.Modelling risk in energy contracts with investor owned generation. IEE Pt.C, 1994; 141 (1):75～80
24、周纪芗，实用回归分析方法，上海科学技术出版社，1990
25、朱冰静、朱宪辰，预测原理与方法，上海交大出版社，1991
26、刘晨晖，电力系统负荷预报理论与方法，哈尔滨工业大学出版社，1987
27、张世英、张文泉，王京芹，技术经济预测与决策，天津大学出版社，1996
28、杨行峻、郑君里，人工神经网络，高等教育出版社，1992
29、邓聚龙，灰色预测与决策，华中理工大学出版社，1992
30、Niu Dong Xiao,Zhang Wen Wen etc.Adjustment grey Model for Load Forecasting of Power Systems.The Journal of Grey System. 1994(6):127～134
31、牛东晓，城市电力需求的灰色预测模型及其应用，水电能源科学，1991年9月
32、Park DC etal. Electric Load Forecasting Using an Artificial Neural Network. IEEE Transactions on PWRS. 1991.6(2)
33、Park DC etal.An Adaptively Trainable Neural Network Algorithm and Its Application to Electric Load Forecasting.Proc.of ANNPS'91 ,Seattle, 1991.
34、Peng TM etal.Advancement in the Application of Neural Networks for Short-term Load Forecasting. IEEE PES 1991 Summer Meeting,PWRS
35、Peng TM etal.An Adaptive Neural Network Approach to One-week Ahead Load Forecasting. IEEE PES 1992 Summer Meeting,92 SM 407-7 PWRS
36、K-L Ho etal.Short Term Load Forecasting Using a Multilayer Neural Network with an Adaptive Learning Algorithm. IEEE PWRS. 1992.7(1)
37、Hsu YY etal.Design of Artificial Neural Network for short-term Load Forecasting. PartⅠand Part Ⅱ .IEEE Pt C.1991.138(5)
38、S-T Chen,DC Yu,A.R. Moghaddamio. Weather Sensitive short-term Load Forecasting Using Nonfully Connected Artificial Neural Network. IEEE PWRS. 1992.7(3)
39、任震、石志强、何建军等，小波分析及其在电力系统中的应用，全国高校电力系统及其自动化专业第十二届学术年会论文集
40、成平、李国英，投影寻踪—一类新兴的统计方法，应用概率统计，1986，2(3)
41、李钰心，水资源系统运行调度，水利电力出版社，1996
42、张英贵，混联水电站群日优化运行，水力发电学报，1990(1)
43、颜竹丘，水能利用，水利电力出版社，1986
44、赵永龙、常晓青，电力市场模式下的水电调度探讨，中国电力，2000(11)
45. Waight J G,Bose A,Sheble G B.Generation Dispatch with Reserve Margin Constrains Using Linear Programming. IEEE Trans on PAS, 1981,100(1)
46、李朝安，发电厂电力系统经济运行，新疆人民出版社，1984
47、马振华，现代数学应用手册——运筹学及最优化理论卷，清华大学出版社，1998
48、金以慧，过程控制，清华大学出版社，1993
49、孙增圻，智能控制理论与技术，清华大学出版社，1993
50、王常力、廖道文，集散型控制系统的设计与应用，清华大学出版社，1993
51、薛金淮、辛绍平、朱教新，西北电网水调中心自动化系统数据库设计，电力系统自动化，1999(5)
52、朱教新、辛绍平、薛金淮等，西北电网水调中心自动化系统，电力系统自动化，1999(4)
53、丁杰、李晓斌、汤煜命等，电网水调自动化系统，电力系统自动化，1999(9)
54、宋燕敏等，PMOS-2000发电市场技术支持系统概述，电力系统自动化，2000(2)
55、华定中等，电网商业化运营管理与调度系统研究(一)：系统功能设计，电力系统自动化，1998(10)
56、华定中等，电网商业化运营管理与调度系统研究(二)：系统结构设计与实施方案，电力系统自动化，1998(11)