冯家山水库洪水预报调度系统研究
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摘要
实时洪水预报调度，作为一种能有效地减轻洪灾的危害程度和降低洪灾所造成的损失的非工程措施，在近几年来的防洪减灾工作中发挥着越来越重要的作用。本文在冯家山水库实时洪水预报调度决策支持系统的研究开发过程中，对实时洪水预报软件的通用化，实时洪水预报精度的提高，实时洪水调度决策等问题进行了相应的研究工作，并提出了解决方法，为实时洪水预报调度决策提供了较为完善的解决方案。
冯家山水库实时洪水预报调度决策支持系统具有以下特点；
1 较完善地实现了冯家山水库实时洪水预报，能较为有效地对实时洪水预报成果进行校正，并实现了校正程序的通用化。
2 实时洪水调度决策支持子系统能自动地形成实时洪水调度预案，并进行多方案、多目标的优化决策。
3 实现了基于GIS的分布式信息查询功能，更符合人们的使用习惯。
4 集成了实时洪水调度分析决策时所需的各项功能，软件功能较强大。
5 友善的用户界面，使用户易于操作，并便于回溯。
本文第一章简要介绍了洪灾的危害性和治理洪灾的措施，并分析了作为防洪非工程措施的实时洪水预报和实时洪水调度管理的现实意义。
第二章对实时洪水预报调度系统进行了系统需求分析，提出了软件系统的各项需求以及系统的结构。
第三章通过对软件系统开发路线的说明，详细介绍了实时洪水预报调度系统的设计与实现，并对应用软件开发中所使用的有关技术与系统开发平台及洪水调度的相关算法做了介绍。
第四章对系统的开发进行总结，并指出了今后的研究发展方向。
As a non-project measure that can efficiently lessen the scathe of flood disaster and reduce the damager of flood, real-time flood forecasting and dispatching become more and more important in the recently preventing flood and reducing disaster. In the process of exploiting Fengjiashan Reservoir Real-time Flood Forecasting and Dispatching Systems, the problems of general-purpose real-time flood forecasting, improving forecast accuracy, real-time flood dispatching decision, and etc, have been studied and an integrated solution scheme to real-time flood forecasting and dispatching decision is provided. This system has following features:
1 The research of Fengjiashan real-time flood forecasting amendment's method for flow correction and the general-purpose research of amendment software are accomplished. The amendment method can efficiently improve forecast accuracy.
2 The Real-time Flood Dispatch Decision Support System can automatically form flood dispatching schemes, and provide multi-scheme and multi-object analysis and decision.
3 The system offers scattering information inquiry based on GIS.
4 The function of the system is advisable, comprehensive and integrated. It can offer all necessary function for user's analysis and decision.
5 Graphics user interface is very friendly, and very convenient to user's manipulation and backtracking.
In the first chapter, the scathe of flood disaster and the measures of controlling flood are looked back, The importance of developing the Real-time Flood Forecasting and Dispatching Decision Support Systems is analyzed.
In the second chapter, the system's demands are analyzed, the function demand, the information demand and the structure of the system are given out.
In the third chapter, design and achievement of Fengjiashan reservoir Real-time Flood Forecasting and Dispatching Decision Support Systems are introduction, including the mathematical models and the algorithms in the main models, and the main technology used in the developing system.
In the last chapter, the conclusion and the trend of the future development of real-time flood forecasting and dispatching are given out.
冯家山水库实时洪水预报调度决策支持系统具有以下特点；
1 较完善地实现了冯家山水库实时洪水预报，能较为有效地对实时洪水预报成果进行校正，并实现了校正程序的通用化。
2 实时洪水调度决策支持子系统能自动地形成实时洪水调度预案，并进行多方案、多目标的优化决策。
3 实现了基于GIS的分布式信息查询功能，更符合人们的使用习惯。
4 集成了实时洪水调度分析决策时所需的各项功能，软件功能较强大。
5 友善的用户界面，使用户易于操作，并便于回溯。
本文第一章简要介绍了洪灾的危害性和治理洪灾的措施，并分析了作为防洪非工程措施的实时洪水预报和实时洪水调度管理的现实意义。
第二章对实时洪水预报调度系统进行了系统需求分析，提出了软件系统的各项需求以及系统的结构。
第三章通过对软件系统开发路线的说明，详细介绍了实时洪水预报调度系统的设计与实现，并对应用软件开发中所使用的有关技术与系统开发平台及洪水调度的相关算法做了介绍。
第四章对系统的开发进行总结，并指出了今后的研究发展方向。
As a non-project measure that can efficiently lessen the scathe of flood disaster and reduce the damager of flood, real-time flood forecasting and dispatching become more and more important in the recently preventing flood and reducing disaster. In the process of exploiting Fengjiashan Reservoir Real-time Flood Forecasting and Dispatching Systems, the problems of general-purpose real-time flood forecasting, improving forecast accuracy, real-time flood dispatching decision, and etc, have been studied and an integrated solution scheme to real-time flood forecasting and dispatching decision is provided. This system has following features:
1 The research of Fengjiashan real-time flood forecasting amendment's method for flow correction and the general-purpose research of amendment software are accomplished. The amendment method can efficiently improve forecast accuracy.
2 The Real-time Flood Dispatch Decision Support System can automatically form flood dispatching schemes, and provide multi-scheme and multi-object analysis and decision.
3 The system offers scattering information inquiry based on GIS.
4 The function of the system is advisable, comprehensive and integrated. It can offer all necessary function for user's analysis and decision.
5 Graphics user interface is very friendly, and very convenient to user's manipulation and backtracking.
In the first chapter, the scathe of flood disaster and the measures of controlling flood are looked back, The importance of developing the Real-time Flood Forecasting and Dispatching Decision Support Systems is analyzed.
In the second chapter, the system's demands are analyzed, the function demand, the information demand and the structure of the system are given out.
In the third chapter, design and achievement of Fengjiashan reservoir Real-time Flood Forecasting and Dispatching Decision Support Systems are introduction, including the mathematical models and the algorithms in the main models, and the main technology used in the developing system.
In the last chapter, the conclusion and the trend of the future development of real-time flood forecasting and dispatching are given out.
引文
1 周年生，李彦东。流域环境管理规划方法与实践．中国水利水电出版社，2000．
2 雒文生。河流水文学．水利水电出版社，1992．
3 国家防汛抗旱总诣挥部办公室、水利部南京水文水资源研究所，“中国水旱灾害”，北京，中国水利水电出版社，1997
4 赵习经等译，水文实践指南(第二卷)，北京，水利电力出版杜，1988
5 水利电力部水利水电规划设计院、长江流域规划办公室主编，水利动能设计手册——防洪分册，北京，水利电力出版社，1988
6 姜旭平，信息系统分析，长沙，湖南科学技术出版社，1993
7 水利水电水文科技情报网、水电部长江流域规划办公室水文局，水文学——概率论方法及应用，北京，科技文献出版社，1985
8 朱华，水情自动测报系统，北京，水利电力出版社，1993
9 葛守西．现代洪水预报技术．北京：中国水利水电出版社，1999
10 朱教新、宣跃、王德宽等，黄河上游梯级水库和西北电网水调自动化系统的设讣与实施，北京，水力发电，1997第12期
11 李玉心、纪昌明、朱教新等，黄河上游梯级水电站短期调度软件研究，北京，水力发电，1997，第12期
12 林钧铀，关于国家防汛信息系统的现状及想法，北京，水力发电，1997，第7期
13 Dooge, J.C.I. Linear Theory of Hydrological System. U.S.Dept.of Agriculture Tech Bulletin, No. 1468,1973
14 Natale, L.Todini, E. A Constrained Parameter Estimation Technique for Linear Models in Hydrology, 1974 publ. 13, Institute of Hydraulics univ. of Pavia
15 Carlos.E.P. and Bras.R.L. Application of Nonlinear Filtering in the Real Time Forecasting of River Flows. Water Resources Research, Vol. 23, No.4, pp675-682, 1987
16 文康，梁庚辰．总径流线性响应模型与线性扰动模型，水利学报，1986，(6)：1-10
17 王真荣．总径流非线性响应模型(TNLR)的研究及应用，武汉水利电力学院学报，1991，24(5)：573-577
18 王厥谋，张瑞芳．徐贯午．综合约束线性系统模型，水利学报，1987，(7)：1-9
19 王厥谋．综合约束线性预报模型，郑州：黄河水利出版社，2001
20 张恭肃、杨小柳、安波，确定性水文预报模型的实时校正，北京，水文，1987。第1期
21 刘志辉、张国威、刘玲瑞，自适应修正预报模型，北京，水文，1995，第5期
22 张建云，轩云卿，李健．水文情报预报系统开发中的若干问题探讨．河海大学学报，2000，28(1)：86-90
23 陈守煜．水库调洪数值-解析解法，大连理工大学学报，1996，36(6)：721-724
24 周之豪，沈曾源，施熙灿等．水利水能规划，北京：水利电力出版社，1985
25 陈惠源．水库防洪调度问题探讨．武汉水利电力大学学报，1998，31(1)：42-45
26 程春田，欧春平，王本德．水库洪水调度系统的集成管理，水利学报，2001，(3)：77-81
27 程春田，欧春平．流域防洪决策支持系统集成管理，大连理工大学学报，2001，41(1)：108-111
28 陈守煜，刘金禄．模糊优选逆命题的解法及在防洪调度决策中的应用，水利学报，2003．3
29 邹进，张勇传．一种多目标决策问题的模糊解法及在洪水调度中的应用，水利学报，2003．1
30 陈守煜．防洪调度多目标决策理论与模型，中国工程科学，2000．2
31 陈守煜．防洪调度系统半结构性决策理论与方法，水利学报，2001．11
32 Thorpe, W.R., C.W.Rose, and R.W.Simpson.1979. Area interpolation of rainfall with a double Flourier series. Journal of Hydrology 42:171- 177
33 Puente,C.E. and R.L.Bras.1987. Application of nonlinear filtering in the real time forecasting of river flows. Water Resources Research 23(4):675-682
34 Orter. J. W. and T.A.Mcmahon.1975. Application of a catchment model in southeastern Australia. Journal of Hydrology 24:121 - 134
35 Ozaki.T.1980. On a model of nonlinear feedback system for river flow prediction. Water Resources Research 16(1):223-231
36 Magette, W.L., V.O.Shanholtz and J.C.Carr.1976. Estimating selected parameters for the Kentucky watershed model from watershed characteristics. Water Resources Research 12(3):472-476
37 Linsley, R.K. 1967. The relation between rainfall and runoff-review paper. Journal of Hydrology,5:297-311
38 Kuczera,G. 1982. On the relationship between the reliability of parameter estimates and hydrologic time series data used in calibration. Water Resources
Research 18(1):146-154
39 张建云，轩云卿，李健．水文情报预报系统开发中的若干问题探讨．河海大学学报，2000，28(1)：86-90
40 杨正甫，面向对象分析与设计，北京：中国铁道出版社，2001
41 周之英，现代软件工程，北京：科学出版社，2000
42 Baxter E. Vieux, Nadim S. Farajalla, and Nalneesh Gaur. Integrated GIS and Distributed Storm Water Runoff Modeling. GIS and Environment Modeling. 199-204
43 Bahram Saghafian. Implementation of a Distributed Hydrologic Model within GRASS. GIS and Environment Modeling. 205-208
44 R. Srinivasan, J. Arnold, W. Rosenthal, and R. S. Muttiah, Hydrologic Modeling of Texas Gulf Basin Using GIS. GIS and Environment Modeling. 213-217
45 陈述彭，鲁学军，周成虎，地理信息系统导论，北京：科学出版社，2000
2 雒文生。河流水文学．水利水电出版社，1992．
3 国家防汛抗旱总诣挥部办公室、水利部南京水文水资源研究所，“中国水旱灾害”，北京，中国水利水电出版社，1997
4 赵习经等译，水文实践指南(第二卷)，北京，水利电力出版杜，1988
5 水利电力部水利水电规划设计院、长江流域规划办公室主编，水利动能设计手册——防洪分册，北京，水利电力出版社，1988
6 姜旭平，信息系统分析，长沙，湖南科学技术出版社，1993
7 水利水电水文科技情报网、水电部长江流域规划办公室水文局，水文学——概率论方法及应用，北京，科技文献出版社，1985
8 朱华，水情自动测报系统，北京，水利电力出版社，1993
9 葛守西．现代洪水预报技术．北京：中国水利水电出版社，1999
10 朱教新、宣跃、王德宽等，黄河上游梯级水库和西北电网水调自动化系统的设讣与实施，北京，水力发电，1997第12期
11 李玉心、纪昌明、朱教新等，黄河上游梯级水电站短期调度软件研究，北京，水力发电，1997，第12期
12 林钧铀，关于国家防汛信息系统的现状及想法，北京，水力发电，1997，第7期
13 Dooge, J.C.I. Linear Theory of Hydrological System. U.S.Dept.of Agriculture Tech Bulletin, No. 1468,1973
14 Natale, L.Todini, E. A Constrained Parameter Estimation Technique for Linear Models in Hydrology, 1974 publ. 13, Institute of Hydraulics univ. of Pavia
15 Carlos.E.P. and Bras.R.L. Application of Nonlinear Filtering in the Real Time Forecasting of River Flows. Water Resources Research, Vol. 23, No.4, pp675-682, 1987
16 文康，梁庚辰．总径流线性响应模型与线性扰动模型，水利学报，1986，(6)：1-10
17 王真荣．总径流非线性响应模型(TNLR)的研究及应用，武汉水利电力学院学报，1991，24(5)：573-577
18 王厥谋，张瑞芳．徐贯午．综合约束线性系统模型，水利学报，1987，(7)：1-9
19 王厥谋．综合约束线性预报模型，郑州：黄河水利出版社，2001
20 张恭肃、杨小柳、安波，确定性水文预报模型的实时校正，北京，水文，1987。第1期
21 刘志辉、张国威、刘玲瑞，自适应修正预报模型，北京，水文，1995，第5期
22 张建云，轩云卿，李健．水文情报预报系统开发中的若干问题探讨．河海大学学报，2000，28(1)：86-90
23 陈守煜．水库调洪数值-解析解法，大连理工大学学报，1996，36(6)：721-724
24 周之豪，沈曾源，施熙灿等．水利水能规划，北京：水利电力出版社，1985
25 陈惠源．水库防洪调度问题探讨．武汉水利电力大学学报，1998，31(1)：42-45
26 程春田，欧春平，王本德．水库洪水调度系统的集成管理，水利学报，2001，(3)：77-81
27 程春田，欧春平．流域防洪决策支持系统集成管理，大连理工大学学报，2001，41(1)：108-111
28 陈守煜，刘金禄．模糊优选逆命题的解法及在防洪调度决策中的应用，水利学报，2003．3
29 邹进，张勇传．一种多目标决策问题的模糊解法及在洪水调度中的应用，水利学报，2003．1
30 陈守煜．防洪调度多目标决策理论与模型，中国工程科学，2000．2
31 陈守煜．防洪调度系统半结构性决策理论与方法，水利学报，2001．11
32 Thorpe, W.R., C.W.Rose, and R.W.Simpson.1979. Area interpolation of rainfall with a double Flourier series. Journal of Hydrology 42:171- 177
33 Puente,C.E. and R.L.Bras.1987. Application of nonlinear filtering in the real time forecasting of river flows. Water Resources Research 23(4):675-682
34 Orter. J. W. and T.A.Mcmahon.1975. Application of a catchment model in southeastern Australia. Journal of Hydrology 24:121 - 134
35 Ozaki.T.1980. On a model of nonlinear feedback system for river flow prediction. Water Resources Research 16(1):223-231
36 Magette, W.L., V.O.Shanholtz and J.C.Carr.1976. Estimating selected parameters for the Kentucky watershed model from watershed characteristics. Water Resources Research 12(3):472-476
37 Linsley, R.K. 1967. The relation between rainfall and runoff-review paper. Journal of Hydrology,5:297-311
38 Kuczera,G. 1982. On the relationship between the reliability of parameter estimates and hydrologic time series data used in calibration. Water Resources
Research 18(1):146-154
39 张建云，轩云卿，李健．水文情报预报系统开发中的若干问题探讨．河海大学学报，2000，28(1)：86-90
40 杨正甫，面向对象分析与设计，北京：中国铁道出版社，2001
41 周之英，现代软件工程，北京：科学出版社，2000
42 Baxter E. Vieux, Nadim S. Farajalla, and Nalneesh Gaur. Integrated GIS and Distributed Storm Water Runoff Modeling. GIS and Environment Modeling. 199-204
43 Bahram Saghafian. Implementation of a Distributed Hydrologic Model within GRASS. GIS and Environment Modeling. 205-208
44 R. Srinivasan, J. Arnold, W. Rosenthal, and R. S. Muttiah, Hydrologic Modeling of Texas Gulf Basin Using GIS. GIS and Environment Modeling. 213-217
45 陈述彭，鲁学军，周成虎，地理信息系统导论，北京：科学出版社，2000