基于不确定性条件下的环境规划与管理研究
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摘要
近年来,随着社会经济的发展和人类生活水平的提高,资源消耗量持续增加,环境压力不断增大,导致自然资源短缺,环境污染问题变得日益严重。目前,环境污染控制措施从最初的末端治理发展到如今的从源头抓起,全面预防与控制。而研究对象也从单一的环境要素规划扩展到现在的以社会、经济和环境的协调发展为目标的综合规划。优化技术,作为环境系统分析的一类主要方法,随着研究范围的扩大和研究内容的深入,已由原有的确定性技术发展到如今的不确定性技术。目前,不确定性优化技术主要包括以下三类：分别是随机数学规划、模糊数学规划和区间数学规划。虽然它们在环境领域内得到很好的应用,但也存在很大的上升空间。
本文以三类主要环境要素(水、气、渣)的环境规划与管理问题为主要研究对象,以改进的不确定性条件下的优化技术为基础,着重强调与其它优化技术的结合,以社会、经济和环境的协调发展为目标,构建不确定性条件下的优化模型,为决策方案的生成提供技术支撑。具体研究内容如下：(1)以随机鲁棒优化方法为基础,分别结合机会约束规划、区间线性规划和两阶段随机规划,形成综合模型,并应用其分别处理固体废弃物管理和水资源分配问题；(2)以模糊机会约束规划模型(包括单侧和双侧)为基础,分别结合区间线性规划方法,形成综合模型来处理区域大气质量管理和农业水质管理问题；(3)以江西省永新县为例,利用不确定性条件下的模糊两阶段随机规划模型,生成综合性规划。结果显示,它可以为决策者制定合理的决策提供技术支持,最终实现永新县社会、经济和环境的协调、可持续发展。
结果表明,新开发的不确定性优化技术可以对原有的不确定性优化技术进行有效地改进,而自身的缺陷可以通过与其它优化方法的结合得到很好的弥补。利用不确定性优化方法构建的优化模型,可以为决策者制定决策提供更多的借鉴和参考,有助于实现社会、经济和环境的协调、可持续发展。
Recently, with rapid socio-economic development and improvement in people s living quality, the increasing resources consumption amounts and pressures on environmental could lead to the shortage of the natural resources and the serious environmental pollution problems. Currently, the environmental pollution control measures are advanced from the initial end-of-pipe control to the source control, comprehensive prevention and control. Moreover, the research targets would be shifted from single environmental elements planning to the current integrated planning. With the expansion and in-depth of the research contents and ranges, the optimization methods, which are the main methods within the environmental system analysis theory, also developed from original deterministic methods to the current uncertain methods. These uncertain optimization methods could enhance model reality and applicability. Currently, the uncertain optimization methods could be divided into the following three categories:Stochastic Mathematical Programming, Fuzzy Mathematical Programming and Interval Mathematical Programming. Although they already are applied in environmental planning and management field as well, they also have much space for improvement.
In this thesis, the environmental planning problems of the three environmental elements (water, air and waste) would be considered as research objectives. According to the existing problems of the current optimization methodologies, the hybrid optimization models would be obtained through incorporating other optimization methods into the new optimization methods framework (i.e. stochastic robust optimization and fuzzy chance-constrained programming). Specifically, the main research components as follows: (1) A variety of the hybrid models could be generated by incorporating interval linear programming, stochastic chance-constrained programming and two-stage stochastic programming into the stochastic robust optimization framework, respectively. Moreover, they could be used to handle solid waste management and water resource allocation problems. (2) The integrated models could be obtained by integrating the interval linear programming with the fuzzy chance constrained programming (single-sided and double-sided), and they could be used to handle regional air quality management and agricultural water quality management problem, respectively; (3) Considering the Yong Xin County in the Jiang Xi Province as the research objective, the proposed inexact two-stage fuzzy stochastic programming model could be used to genenrate the integrated plans for social, environmental and economic development. The obtained solutions indicated that the proposed model could provide technological support for decision-making and realize the coordinated and sustainable development among the social, economic and environment.
The obtained results demonstrated that the new uncertain optimization methods could effectively solve the existing problems of the original uncertain optimization methods; meanwhile, their shortcomings could be remedied through integrating other optimization methods. The proposed optimization models could provide more learning and references for decision-making, also they contributed to the coordinated and sustainable development among the social, economic and environment.
本文以三类主要环境要素(水、气、渣)的环境规划与管理问题为主要研究对象,以改进的不确定性条件下的优化技术为基础,着重强调与其它优化技术的结合,以社会、经济和环境的协调发展为目标,构建不确定性条件下的优化模型,为决策方案的生成提供技术支撑。具体研究内容如下：(1)以随机鲁棒优化方法为基础,分别结合机会约束规划、区间线性规划和两阶段随机规划,形成综合模型,并应用其分别处理固体废弃物管理和水资源分配问题；(2)以模糊机会约束规划模型(包括单侧和双侧)为基础,分别结合区间线性规划方法,形成综合模型来处理区域大气质量管理和农业水质管理问题；(3)以江西省永新县为例,利用不确定性条件下的模糊两阶段随机规划模型,生成综合性规划。结果显示,它可以为决策者制定合理的决策提供技术支持,最终实现永新县社会、经济和环境的协调、可持续发展。
结果表明,新开发的不确定性优化技术可以对原有的不确定性优化技术进行有效地改进,而自身的缺陷可以通过与其它优化方法的结合得到很好的弥补。利用不确定性优化方法构建的优化模型,可以为决策者制定决策提供更多的借鉴和参考,有助于实现社会、经济和环境的协调、可持续发展。
Recently, with rapid socio-economic development and improvement in people s living quality, the increasing resources consumption amounts and pressures on environmental could lead to the shortage of the natural resources and the serious environmental pollution problems. Currently, the environmental pollution control measures are advanced from the initial end-of-pipe control to the source control, comprehensive prevention and control. Moreover, the research targets would be shifted from single environmental elements planning to the current integrated planning. With the expansion and in-depth of the research contents and ranges, the optimization methods, which are the main methods within the environmental system analysis theory, also developed from original deterministic methods to the current uncertain methods. These uncertain optimization methods could enhance model reality and applicability. Currently, the uncertain optimization methods could be divided into the following three categories:Stochastic Mathematical Programming, Fuzzy Mathematical Programming and Interval Mathematical Programming. Although they already are applied in environmental planning and management field as well, they also have much space for improvement.
In this thesis, the environmental planning problems of the three environmental elements (water, air and waste) would be considered as research objectives. According to the existing problems of the current optimization methodologies, the hybrid optimization models would be obtained through incorporating other optimization methods into the new optimization methods framework (i.e. stochastic robust optimization and fuzzy chance-constrained programming). Specifically, the main research components as follows: (1) A variety of the hybrid models could be generated by incorporating interval linear programming, stochastic chance-constrained programming and two-stage stochastic programming into the stochastic robust optimization framework, respectively. Moreover, they could be used to handle solid waste management and water resource allocation problems. (2) The integrated models could be obtained by integrating the interval linear programming with the fuzzy chance constrained programming (single-sided and double-sided), and they could be used to handle regional air quality management and agricultural water quality management problem, respectively; (3) Considering the Yong Xin County in the Jiang Xi Province as the research objective, the proposed inexact two-stage fuzzy stochastic programming model could be used to genenrate the integrated plans for social, environmental and economic development. The obtained solutions indicated that the proposed model could provide technological support for decision-making and realize the coordinated and sustainable development among the social, economic and environment.
The obtained results demonstrated that the new uncertain optimization methods could effectively solve the existing problems of the original uncertain optimization methods; meanwhile, their shortcomings could be remedied through integrating other optimization methods. The proposed optimization models could provide more learning and references for decision-making, also they contributed to the coordinated and sustainable development among the social, economic and environment.
引文
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