防洪及水资源利用风险分析问题的研究
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摘要
目前,我国防洪安全形势严峻、水资源紧缺的现实,已经成为制约我国社会经济发展的重要因素。为了提高我国现有的防洪安全保证度,最大可能的降低各地区所承担的防洪风险,充分合理的实现对现有水资源的利用,作者在广泛阅读和研究国内外有关研究成果的基础上,基于水文学的基本原理,分析了水利防洪工程以及水资源利用中所涉及的风险因素,并运用当代比较成熟的理论方法和技术手段,分别针对洪水预报系统、供水系统以及城市防洪、河道防洪、水库防洪中存在的风险问题进行了深入的研究,得出如下主要结论:
(1)从不同角度给出了反映雨情预报风险和可靠度的指标,并提出利用改进的一次二阶矩法对洪水预报模型的可靠度进行风险分析和评价。同时认为,该方法同样适用于中长期水文预报风险率的计算。
(2)根据城市洪涝灾害的不同致灾原理,结合我国城市的不同类型,给出了城市综合防洪安全风险率的计算方法。在此基础上,构建了城市洪涝灾害风险评价指标模型,并给出各指标的计算方法。
(3)把风险理论用于供水系统当中,给出相应的风险评价指标,建立了供水系统风险评价指标体系。并以岗南、黄壁庄供水系统为例,计算出在不同供水削减程度下供水风险指标的变化情况,给出了不同水平年供水量的削减比例以及相应的具体管理措施。
(4)通过研究超标准洪水对河道堤坝防洪的影响,给出了超标准洪水水文风险率、水力风险率和工程结构可靠度的计算模型。并提出了河道堤防防洪能力可靠度的计算方法,以海河干流为例,对其河道防洪能力进行了风险分析和评价。计算结果表明,该方法从定性上和定量上都较好地反映了堤防防洪能力与可靠度的关系。
(5)利用建立的水库防洪风险评价指标体系,以岗南、黄壁庄水库为例,计算了不同汛限水位方案下,各风险指标的变化情况。通过综合分析比较,黄壁庄水库汛限水位调整以116m的方案最为实际可行。如果将黄壁庄水库的汛限水位由现有的114m提高至116m,,水库可增加蓄水约7928万m~3,占其设计兴利库容4.641亿m~3的17.08%,所能增加的经济效益还是非常可观的。
At present, flood danger and lack of water resource are the key restriction factors for the social and economic development of China. In order to improve the capacity of flood control and to reduce the flood risk, make a best use of the potential of the flood resources and to get the most benefits of the flood control and water supply, based on the analysis of the relevant research at home and aboard, the risk factors that were concerned in flood control and water resource utilization project were analyzed and some methods of flood control and the utilizing flood resources were systematically investigated. The following outcomes and conclusions have been obtained in this thesis after studying on the risk problem about flood forecast system, water supply system, river channel flood control, reservoir flood control and urban flood control respectively:
(1) The risk and reliability indexes of raining forecast were given from different aspects. The advance LOSM method was applied to the risk analysis and evaluation of flood forecast model, and this method was the same with the medium-term and long-term hydrological forecasting.
(2) Based on different principle of urban flood and water logging disaster and different city style, the calculation method of synthesis urban flood risk was proposed. After that, a comprehensive evaluation index system was established, and the method to calculate risk index was given.
(3) The risk theory was applied to the management of water supply system with corresponding indexes proposed, and the risk evaluation index system was established. Take Gan Nan and Huang Bizhuang reservoirs as an example, the risk indexes of different cutting rate were worked out, and the specific measures were put forward to different years.
(4) Analyzing the influence of superstandard flood to the river channel, the calculating models of hydrological risk, hydraulic risk and structure reliability were proposed, and the method of flood control capacity for river channel was given. After that, the risk level of flood control capacity for Haihe River was evaluated and the relation of flood control capacity and reliability was shown in the result.
(5) By using the risk evaluation index system of reservoir flood control, the risk indexes of Huang Bizhuang reservoir raising the limit level were calculated. The results show that the limit flood water level in Huang Bizhuang reservoir could be raised to 116 meter from present 114 meter. As a result, the reservoir can increase 79.28 million cubic meters storage water which is about 17.08% of the design available storage. The increasing economic benefit is very distinct.
(1)从不同角度给出了反映雨情预报风险和可靠度的指标,并提出利用改进的一次二阶矩法对洪水预报模型的可靠度进行风险分析和评价。同时认为,该方法同样适用于中长期水文预报风险率的计算。
(2)根据城市洪涝灾害的不同致灾原理,结合我国城市的不同类型,给出了城市综合防洪安全风险率的计算方法。在此基础上,构建了城市洪涝灾害风险评价指标模型,并给出各指标的计算方法。
(3)把风险理论用于供水系统当中,给出相应的风险评价指标,建立了供水系统风险评价指标体系。并以岗南、黄壁庄供水系统为例,计算出在不同供水削减程度下供水风险指标的变化情况,给出了不同水平年供水量的削减比例以及相应的具体管理措施。
(4)通过研究超标准洪水对河道堤坝防洪的影响,给出了超标准洪水水文风险率、水力风险率和工程结构可靠度的计算模型。并提出了河道堤防防洪能力可靠度的计算方法,以海河干流为例,对其河道防洪能力进行了风险分析和评价。计算结果表明,该方法从定性上和定量上都较好地反映了堤防防洪能力与可靠度的关系。
(5)利用建立的水库防洪风险评价指标体系,以岗南、黄壁庄水库为例,计算了不同汛限水位方案下,各风险指标的变化情况。通过综合分析比较,黄壁庄水库汛限水位调整以116m的方案最为实际可行。如果将黄壁庄水库的汛限水位由现有的114m提高至116m,,水库可增加蓄水约7928万m~3,占其设计兴利库容4.641亿m~3的17.08%,所能增加的经济效益还是非常可观的。
At present, flood danger and lack of water resource are the key restriction factors for the social and economic development of China. In order to improve the capacity of flood control and to reduce the flood risk, make a best use of the potential of the flood resources and to get the most benefits of the flood control and water supply, based on the analysis of the relevant research at home and aboard, the risk factors that were concerned in flood control and water resource utilization project were analyzed and some methods of flood control and the utilizing flood resources were systematically investigated. The following outcomes and conclusions have been obtained in this thesis after studying on the risk problem about flood forecast system, water supply system, river channel flood control, reservoir flood control and urban flood control respectively:
(1) The risk and reliability indexes of raining forecast were given from different aspects. The advance LOSM method was applied to the risk analysis and evaluation of flood forecast model, and this method was the same with the medium-term and long-term hydrological forecasting.
(2) Based on different principle of urban flood and water logging disaster and different city style, the calculation method of synthesis urban flood risk was proposed. After that, a comprehensive evaluation index system was established, and the method to calculate risk index was given.
(3) The risk theory was applied to the management of water supply system with corresponding indexes proposed, and the risk evaluation index system was established. Take Gan Nan and Huang Bizhuang reservoirs as an example, the risk indexes of different cutting rate were worked out, and the specific measures were put forward to different years.
(4) Analyzing the influence of superstandard flood to the river channel, the calculating models of hydrological risk, hydraulic risk and structure reliability were proposed, and the method of flood control capacity for river channel was given. After that, the risk level of flood control capacity for Haihe River was evaluated and the relation of flood control capacity and reliability was shown in the result.
(5) By using the risk evaluation index system of reservoir flood control, the risk indexes of Huang Bizhuang reservoir raising the limit level were calculated. The results show that the limit flood water level in Huang Bizhuang reservoir could be raised to 116 meter from present 114 meter. As a result, the reservoir can increase 79.28 million cubic meters storage water which is about 17.08% of the design available storage. The increasing economic benefit is very distinct.
引文
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