中国农业面源污染的经济分析与政策研究
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摘要
进入21世纪以来，在点源污染得到有效控制之后，面源污染主要是农业面源污染逐渐成为我国最为重要的环境问题。农业面源污染破坏性增大，已经成为我国主要的水体和土壤污染源，不仅退化了农业生态系统，危害农业安全，也通过水和食品污染损害到居民健康，成为危害民族素质的公害。更为重要的是，我国小农户生产形态使农业面源污染管控处于困境，伴随我国经济快速发展，农业面源污染问题必将进一步凸显。为此，我国政府近几年来开始高度重视以农业面源污染为主要特征的农村环境问题，并把农村环境保护与治理作为一项基本国策。先后制定多项法律法规规范农业面源污染治理问题，并在《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十一个五年规划的建议》和《中共中央国务院关于推进社会主义新农村建设的若干意见》中将社会主义新农村明确界定为“生产发展、生活宽裕、村容整洁、乡风文明、管理民主”的20字方针，从而把农业面源污染管控提高到战略高度。从这个角度上说对中国农业面源污染研究具有重要意义。
论文在前人研究基础上，借助于发展经济学、环境经济学、农业经济学等经济学理论以及数量经济学、现代计量经济学等分析方法，分析了农业面源污染产生的社会经济背景、微观作用机理和管控政策体系，从本质上认识了农业面源污染的产生与加重的社会经济规律，为农业面源污染的防治提供了科学依据。本研究在宏观把握我国农业面源污染时空特征、与经济发展的作用机理及耦合关系之后，将农户作为基本分析对象，通过分析农户生产经营以及技术应用等主要行为的面源污染效应，揭示农户行为与农业面源污染的本质关系，进而分析如何优化农户行为从而促进农业环境污染治理。论文从宏观和微观层面上来探求我国农业面源污染治理问题的突破点，在此基础上，分析调整政策的可行性，建构农业面源污染管控政策以期优化农户行为，从而为农村可持续发展战略的开展和新农村建设的实施提供理论和实践上的支持，最终达到人与自然和谐发展的“双赢”目的。论文的主要内容与结论如下：
(1)论文从总体上了解和把握中国农业面源污染的状况、特点和时空特征。认为中国农业面源污染有破坏性大、隐蔽性强等特点。运用相关统计和计量方法对选取的农业面源污染物进行分析：从时间序列分析看，农业面源污染指标随时间变动均呈现线性上升趋势；从空间特征看，选取的指标呈现一定的区域聚集特征，并且主要面源污染物(化肥、农药和畜禽粪便)的排放是东部地区＞中部地区＞西部地区。
(2)论文借助前人研究，从理论和实证角度分析经济发展的农业面源污染效应，发现经济发展对面源污染既有恶化效应，也有优化效应，在不同的发展阶段作用力不一样，二者存在倒“U”型特征。根据这个思路，我们通过构建包含农业环境禀赋、农业面源污染排放量和人均收入的农业生产者利润函数模型印证了经济发展与农业面源污染的“EKC”假说。进一步我们根据现阶段我国主要经济发展特征变量，简单地拟合经济发展与农业面源污染关系的曲线发现，我国当前经济发展会带来农业面源污染的加剧。论文从实证角度支撑了理论研究结果，论文分别运用误差修正模型和Granger因果检验方法，考察发现三类主要农业面源污染度量指标与我国经济发展之间存在因果关系。利用面板数据进一步考察发现三类主要农业面源污染物与经济发展存在倒“U”型特征，而且转折点较高，我国大部分省市仍然处于随着经济发展而导致农业面源污染增长较快的阶段。
(3)论文分析农业面源污染减排的微观机理，发现“市场失灵”与“政府失灵”造成的农业生产者环境资源使用的非理性行为是造成经济发展伴随的农业面源污染加重的微观原因，这使得“EKC”曲线峰值提高及转折点延缓到达，由此必须理性农户环境资源使用意识与行为。
(4)论文利用“CVM”方法调查分析农户意识的面源污染效应及影响因素，发现农户环境意识薄弱是当前造成农业面源污染的重要影响因素，而农户环境意识主要与兼业化程度、家庭收入和教育程度关系最为密切，因此，提高农民收入水平，以及加强教育，才是提高农户环境意识的有效途径。
(5)论文分析农户生产行为的农业面源污染效应及其优化。理论分析表明，农业土地规模大、组织化程度高、劳动力投入多而质量高，农业长期投资大都能减轻农业面源污染，但目前我国农户生产行为不利于农业面源污染减排，通过对江汉平原地区300户农户调查数据的检验，证实了我们的分析。此外，我们还基于农户生产行为模型分析了农业政策的面源污染效应，结果发现土地价格上升、农资价格下降都会造成面源污染加重，最低收购价政策和直接补贴政策减轻了农业污染，农资增支综合补贴政策却加重了污染。结论显示，我们必须对农户生产行为和能够影响农户生产行为的农业政策进行调整。
(6)论文分析农户亲环境技术采纳行为的面源污染效应发现，我国农户技术采纳行为不利于亲环境技术采纳，对实证分析文献的梳理表明农户文化教育程度、收入水平、社会地位均与亲环境技术采纳率呈正相关：年龄与亲环境技术采纳呈负相关。根据分析，我们提出了诱导措施，包括减少农户亲环境技术采纳风险，增加经济激励等。
(7)论文从命令—控制措施、市场措施和公众参与机制三个角度比较了各国农业面源污染管控政策，发现发达国家农业面源污染管控具备几个特点：包括完备的法律法规，高效的管控体系，复合型管控措施，多样的经济激励措施，充分发挥公众的作用等。
(8)论文分析我国农业面源污染管控现状，并建构我国农业面源污染管控体系。包括提出了“共同负担为主，污染者负担为辅”的财政分担方式，“以经济激励为主，行政管制为辅”的管控方式、“生态补偿和生态税费相结合”的管控手段、“以源头治理为主，末端治理为辅”的管控模式，以及一系列具体实施措施。
本文可能的创新点在于：
(1)选题具有前沿性和探索性。农业面源污染问题是伴随中国经济快速发展而在近几年凸现出来的，我国独特的经济发展道路与资源环境禀赋决定了我国农业面源污染具有破坏性大、复杂性高的特点，对该问题的研究具有前沿性和探索性。本文立足于我国国情，借鉴国外的相关研究理论与方法，从技术与经济相结合的角度，对农业面源污染与宏观经济发展、农户经济行为的作用机理以及农业面源污染的管控政策，进行了系统的分析和探索。
(2)内容上的创新。本文尝试从理论及实证角度分析农业面源污染与经济发展的作用机理，得出了一系列有价值的结论，如：经济发展对农业面源污染具有恶化与改善双重影响；经济发展—农业面源污染曲线具有倒“U”型特征；不同的经济发展阶段具有不同的农业面源污染特征；农业生产者环境资源利用的非理性造成“EKC”转折困境等。论文同样从理论及实证的角度分析了农户意识与行为的面源污染效应及其影响因素，发现我国农户意识及行为均不利于农业面源污染减排；论文还通过建构农户行为模型分析了农业政策的面源污染效应，发现我国部分农业政策造成农业面源污染加重，需要将农业环境目标纳入政策目标体系中，从而调整农业政策；此外，论文提出了具有针对性和可操作性的农业面源污染管控框架和政策建议，如：优化农户行为能够减轻经济发展的面源污染效应；以经济激励为主要手段构建农业面源污染管控体系；整合农业政策等。
(3)方法上的创新。论文采用协整理论和格兰杰因果关系检验模型实证检验经济发展与农业面源污染变量之间的关系；利用面板数据用固定效应模型检验了经济发展与农业面源污染的“倒U型”特征。利用回归方法分析了农户农业生产行为特征对农业面源污染的影响。也利用“CVM”条件评估方法，分析了农户农业面源污染意识与支付意愿。得到一些有意义的可靠的研究结论，如：农业面源污染与人均GDP处于同步上升阶段；农户面源污染意识与兼业化程度、家庭收入和教育程
度关系最为密切；农户教育程度高，土地经营规模大，土地不是租用等经营特征减轻面源污染排放等。
虽然论文从理论研究、经验研究和政策研究三个层面对中国农业面源污染的系列问题进行了探讨，但该问题涉及到经济学与环境科学的交叉，还有很多方面的工作亟待下一步的研究：
理论研究方面：经济发展和农业面源污染之间的关系还可以进一步用数理模型来阐述。可以将该问题纳入内生增长模型，分析封闭和开放贸易体系下，经济发展对农业面源污染的影响；此外还应该进一步分析，污染治理对经济发展的影响；农户生产行为的面源污染效应，还应该进一步内生化，将其纳入农户模型进行分析；农业政策的污染效应还可以从动态角度进一步考察。
实证研究方面：原始数据的选取，可以利用农田环境的监测数据进行分析；对农户技术采纳的研究还缺乏更微观的一手资料的数据验证；方法上还可以有所创新，比如经济发展与农业面源污染的“EKC”曲线的验证还可以利用联立方程组方法探讨二者的传导机制。
政策研究方面：可以进一步细化研究不同政策的效果，通过在典型地区的调查基础上，模拟不同政策的实施效果。
Since the entry of the 21st century, with effective control of the point pollution, the non-point source pollution, especially the agricultural non-point source pollution, has gradually become the most serious environmental problem in China. Agricultural non-point source pollution whose destructive force increases gradually is the main source of water and soil pollution, which not only degrades the agricultural ecological system and endangers agricultural safety, but also does harm to the residents' health through water and food and becomes public hazard jeopardizing the national quality. What's more, because of the small scale of production form of China's rural households, it is difficult to control and regulate the agricultural non-point source pollution and it will become more and more prominent with the rapid development of national economy. Therefore, in recent years, the central government has attached great importance to rural environmental problems which are characterized with agricultural non-point source pollution, listed the protection and treatment of rural environment as one of the basic national policies and enacted many laws, regulations and rules to regulate agricultural non-point source pollution. In the "Proposal of CPC Central Committee for Formulating the 11th Five-year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" and the "Guiding Opinion of CPC Central Committee and State Council on Promoting the Construction of a New Socialist Countryside", the new socialist countryside is clearly defined as "incorporated higher productivity, better living standard, communal civility, democratic management, as well as a clean and tidy look", indicating that the control and regulation of agricultural non-point source pollution is of great strategic meaning. It is seen from above background information that the research on China's agricultural non-point source pollution is of great significance.
Based on previous research, the dissertation makes analysis on the social and economic background of the emergence of agricultural non-point source pollution, its microscopic action mechanism and the policy system for its control and regulation by theories of development economics, environmental economics and agricultural economics and approaches of mathematical economics and modern econometrics, so as to understand the social and economic laws of the emergence and aggravation of agricultural non-point source pollution to provide scientific proof for its prevention and treatment. After reviewing the spatio-temporal characteristics of China's agricultural non-point source pollution and its functioning mechanism and coupling relationship with economic development from the macroscopic perspective, the dissertation analyzes the effect of rural households' behavior, like that of production and management and technology application, on non-point pollution with rural households as object of study, revealing the essential relationship between rural households and the agricultural non-point source pollution. Furthermore, it analyzes how to optimize rural households' behavior to promote the treatment of agricultural environmental pollution, seeking means to treat and improve China's agricultural non-point source pollution from both the macroscopic and microscopic perspectives. On the basis of previous analysis, the dissertation analyzes the feasibility of adjusting corresponding policies and tries to establish policies for controlling and regulating agricultural non-point source pollution in order to optimize rural households' behavior, all of which will provide theoretical and practical support for the implementation of the strategy of sustainable development of rural areas and construction of a new socialist countryside, realizing the win-win goal of harmonious development between human beings and nature.
The main content and conclusions of the dissertation are as follows.
Firstly, the dissertation recognizes and grasps current situation, features and spatio-temporal characteristics of China's agricultural non-point source pollution, finding that China's agricultural non-point source pollution is of great destructive power and deeply hidden. With analysis of the agricultural non-point pollutant by corresponding statistical and econometrical approaches, it is found that the indices of agricultural non-point pollution increase linearly as time passes when analyzing time series data while using spatial characteristics the selected indices indicate regional agglomeration to a certain degree and the discharge of main non-point pollutant (fertilizer, pesticide and excretion of livestock and poultry) is in a sequence of eastern area, central area and western area.
Secondly, with previous studies the dissertation makes analysis of the effect of economic development on agricultural non-point pollution from theoretical and empirical perspectives. It is found that the economic development exerts both deteriorating and optimizing effect on the non-point pollution, that the applied force is different in different stages and that the relationship between economic development and non-point pollution is characterized with the inverted "U". According to this, the dissertation establishes rural households' profit function, including the endowment of agricultural environment, discharge of agricultural non-point pollution and income per capita to testify the EKC (Environmental Kuznets Curve) hypothesis about economic development and agricultural non-point pollution. Moreover, when simply fitting the curve of the relationship between economic development and agricultural non-point pollution by using main characteristic variables of China's current economic development, it is found that current economic development in China will aggravate the agricultural non-point pollution. The following empirical analysis in the dissertation supports the result of the theoretical study. It is found that there is causality between three categories of the indices of agricultural non-point pollution and the economic development through error correction model and Granger causality test, that the relationship between the two is characterized with the inverted "U" and the turning point is rather high through the analysis of panel data and that most provinces and cities in China are still in the stage that agricultural non-point pollution increases rapidly as a result of economic development.
Thirdly, by analyzing the microscopic mechanism of reducing the discharge of agricultural non-point source pollution, the dissertation finds out the microscopic reason why agricultural non-point source pollution aggravates with the economic development that rural households' utilization of the environment and resources is irrational which is caused by market failure and government failure, heightening the peak value of "Environmental Kuznets Curve" and postponing the arrival of its turning point. Therefore, it is necessary to make rural households' consciousness and behavior of utilizing the environment and resource rational.
Fourthly, the dissertation makes survey and analysis on the effect of rural households' consciousness on non-point source pollution and the influencing factors by CVM (Contingent Valuation Method). It is found that the fairly important influencing factor that causes agricultural non-point source pollution is fanners' weak environmental consciousness, which is closely connected with their concurrent business, family income and educational level. Thus, it is the effective way to increase farmers' income and strengthen their education to improve their environmental consciousness.
Fifthly, the dissertation makes analysis on the effect of rural households' production behavior on agricultural non-point source pollution and its optimization. It is found that agricultural non-point source pollution can be lessened through large scale of land utilization, high organizing degree, much input of labor force of high quality and permanent investment in agriculture and that current rural households' production behavior in China is not favorable for reducing the discharge of agricultural non-point source pollution which is approved by testifying the investigated data of 300 rural households from Jianghan Plain. Based on rural households' production behavior, the dissertation further analyzes the effect of agricultural polices on non-point source pollution, through which it is found that the increase of land price, drop of the price of agricultural means of production and the policy of comprehensive subsidy for the increase of the price of agricultural means of production aggravate the non-point source pollution while policies of the minimum purchasing price and direct subsidy lessen the pollution. It is concluded that rural households' production behavior and agricultural policies which can influence rural households' behavior should be adjusted.
Sixthly, through the analysis on the effect of rural households' adoption of environment-friendly technologies on non-point source pollution, it is found that rural households' behavior of technology adoption is unfavorable for those environment-friendly technologies. On the other hand, through reviewing relevant literature of empirical analysis, it is found that there is positive correlation between the adoption rate of environment-friendly technologies and farmers' educational level, income level and social status while negative correlation between that and age. Accordingly, the dissertation puts forward inducing measures to increase the adoption rate of environment-friendly technologies, including reducing the adoption risks and increasing economic stimulus and so on.
Seventhly, from the perspectives of control measures, market measures and the mechanism of public participation, the dissertation makes comparison of the policies for controlling and regulating agricultural non-point source pollution of different countries. It is found that developed countries have merits in controlling and regulating agricultural non-point source pollution, including perfect system of laws and regulations, efficient control and regulation system, complex controlling and regulating measures, diversified measures of economic stimulus and full use of public role and so on.
Eighthly, the dissertation makes analysis of current situation of the control and regulation of China's agricultural non-point source pollution and advances to establish the system for its control and regulation, including the financial sharing mode that the financial support should be primarily shared among relevant bodies with polluters bear corresponding expense as complement, the controlling and regulating means which is economic stimulus oriented and complemented with the administrative control and regulation, the controlling and regulating measures which are the combination of ecological compensation and ecological tax and expense, the controlling and regulating mode which is original treatment oriented and complemented with terminal treatment, and a series of measures for implementing such system.
The innovative points of the dissertation are as follows.
Firstly, the topic selected is pioneering and exploratory, for agricultural non-point source pollution emerges with the rapid development of China's economy and is of great destructive power and fair complexity which is determined by China's unique path of economic development and its endowment of nature and environment. With reference to relevant overseas theories and researching approaches and China's national condition, the dissertation makes systematic analysis and exploration of agricultural non-point source pollution from both the technological and economic perspectives, including the functioning mechanism among agricultural non-point source pollution and the macroeconomic development and the rural household economics and the policies for controlling and regulating agricultural non-point source pollution.
The second innovative point lies in the content. The dissertation makes theoretical and empirical analysis of the functioning mechanism between agricultural non-point source pollution and economic development, obtaining a series of valuable conclusions that the economic development exerts deteriorating and improving effect on agricultural non-point source pollution, that the curve of economic development and agricultural non-point source pollution is characterized with the inverted "U", that the characteristics of agricultural non-point source pollution are different during different stages of economic development and that rural households' irrational utilization of the environment and resources results in the dilemma of "EKC" transition. The dissertation also analyzes the effect of rural households' consciousness and behavior on non-point source pollution and the influencing factors from the theoretical and empirical perspectives. It is found that rural households' consciousness and behavior is not favorable for reducing the discharge of agricultural non-point source pollution. By establishing rural households' behavior model, it analyzes the effect of agricultural policies on non-point source pollution, through which it is found that part of the agricultural policies lead to aggravating the non-point source pollution and that it is necessary to bring the goals of agricultural environment into the system of policy goals to adjust agricultural policies. In addition, the dissertation advances the pointed and operable framework and suggestion for controlling and regulating agricultural non-point source pollution, including that optimizing rural households' behavior can lessen the effect of non-point source pollution caused by economic development, that it is necessary to establish the system for controlling and regulating agricultural non-point source pollution with economic stimulus as main means and that agricultural policies should be adjusted and integrated and so on.
Thirdly, the research approaches used in the dissertation are innovative. Cointegration theory and Granger causality test are used to prove the relationship between economic development and variables of agricultural non-point source pollution, as well as fixed effect model with panel data to testify the inverted "U" characteristic of their relationship, regression method to analyze the influence of the characteristics of rural households' production behavior on agricultural non-point source pollution and CVM (Contingent Valuation Method) to rural households' consciousness of non-point source pollution and their willingness to pay. Through the analysis, the dissertation finds some significant and reliable conclusions that the agricultural non-point source pollution rises in step with GDP per capita, that rural households' consciousness is closely connected with their concurrent business, family income and educational level and that the management which is characterized with high level of farmers' education, large operative scale of agricultural land and no renting of land can lessen the discharge of non-point source pollution.
Although the dissertation has discussed the problems existing in China's agricultural non-point source pollution by theoretical study, empirical study and policy study, there are much work needed to do in the future study, for the selected topic is involved with both the economics and environment science.
As to the theoretical research, the relationship between economic development and agricultural non-point source pollution can be further illustrated by mathematical model. The relationship can be brought into endogenous growth model to discuss the influence of economic development on agricultural non-point source pollution in the closed and open trade systems respectively. Besides, the influence of pollution treatment on economic development should be further analyzed, the effect of rural households' production behavior on non-point source pollution should be incorporated into rural households' model and the effect of agricultural policies on the non-point pollution can be studied from the dynamic perspective.
In the empirical research, more work should be done. With regard to the selection of original data, we can use the monitoring data of the farmland environment to do further analysis. There is a shortage of first-hand data to validate the research on rural households' adoption of technologies. In addition, the research approach can be innovated, like the validation of the "EKC" between economic development and agricultural non-point source pollution and the transmission mechanism between the two can be discussed by simultaneous equations.
Concerning the policy research, the effect of different policies should be studied in details via simulating the implementation effect of different policies with the investigation of typical regions.
论文在前人研究基础上，借助于发展经济学、环境经济学、农业经济学等经济学理论以及数量经济学、现代计量经济学等分析方法，分析了农业面源污染产生的社会经济背景、微观作用机理和管控政策体系，从本质上认识了农业面源污染的产生与加重的社会经济规律，为农业面源污染的防治提供了科学依据。本研究在宏观把握我国农业面源污染时空特征、与经济发展的作用机理及耦合关系之后，将农户作为基本分析对象，通过分析农户生产经营以及技术应用等主要行为的面源污染效应，揭示农户行为与农业面源污染的本质关系，进而分析如何优化农户行为从而促进农业环境污染治理。论文从宏观和微观层面上来探求我国农业面源污染治理问题的突破点，在此基础上，分析调整政策的可行性，建构农业面源污染管控政策以期优化农户行为，从而为农村可持续发展战略的开展和新农村建设的实施提供理论和实践上的支持，最终达到人与自然和谐发展的“双赢”目的。论文的主要内容与结论如下：
(1)论文从总体上了解和把握中国农业面源污染的状况、特点和时空特征。认为中国农业面源污染有破坏性大、隐蔽性强等特点。运用相关统计和计量方法对选取的农业面源污染物进行分析：从时间序列分析看，农业面源污染指标随时间变动均呈现线性上升趋势；从空间特征看，选取的指标呈现一定的区域聚集特征，并且主要面源污染物(化肥、农药和畜禽粪便)的排放是东部地区＞中部地区＞西部地区。
(2)论文借助前人研究，从理论和实证角度分析经济发展的农业面源污染效应，发现经济发展对面源污染既有恶化效应，也有优化效应，在不同的发展阶段作用力不一样，二者存在倒“U”型特征。根据这个思路，我们通过构建包含农业环境禀赋、农业面源污染排放量和人均收入的农业生产者利润函数模型印证了经济发展与农业面源污染的“EKC”假说。进一步我们根据现阶段我国主要经济发展特征变量，简单地拟合经济发展与农业面源污染关系的曲线发现，我国当前经济发展会带来农业面源污染的加剧。论文从实证角度支撑了理论研究结果，论文分别运用误差修正模型和Granger因果检验方法，考察发现三类主要农业面源污染度量指标与我国经济发展之间存在因果关系。利用面板数据进一步考察发现三类主要农业面源污染物与经济发展存在倒“U”型特征，而且转折点较高，我国大部分省市仍然处于随着经济发展而导致农业面源污染增长较快的阶段。
(3)论文分析农业面源污染减排的微观机理，发现“市场失灵”与“政府失灵”造成的农业生产者环境资源使用的非理性行为是造成经济发展伴随的农业面源污染加重的微观原因，这使得“EKC”曲线峰值提高及转折点延缓到达，由此必须理性农户环境资源使用意识与行为。
(4)论文利用“CVM”方法调查分析农户意识的面源污染效应及影响因素，发现农户环境意识薄弱是当前造成农业面源污染的重要影响因素，而农户环境意识主要与兼业化程度、家庭收入和教育程度关系最为密切，因此，提高农民收入水平，以及加强教育，才是提高农户环境意识的有效途径。
(5)论文分析农户生产行为的农业面源污染效应及其优化。理论分析表明，农业土地规模大、组织化程度高、劳动力投入多而质量高，农业长期投资大都能减轻农业面源污染，但目前我国农户生产行为不利于农业面源污染减排，通过对江汉平原地区300户农户调查数据的检验，证实了我们的分析。此外，我们还基于农户生产行为模型分析了农业政策的面源污染效应，结果发现土地价格上升、农资价格下降都会造成面源污染加重，最低收购价政策和直接补贴政策减轻了农业污染，农资增支综合补贴政策却加重了污染。结论显示，我们必须对农户生产行为和能够影响农户生产行为的农业政策进行调整。
(6)论文分析农户亲环境技术采纳行为的面源污染效应发现，我国农户技术采纳行为不利于亲环境技术采纳，对实证分析文献的梳理表明农户文化教育程度、收入水平、社会地位均与亲环境技术采纳率呈正相关：年龄与亲环境技术采纳呈负相关。根据分析，我们提出了诱导措施，包括减少农户亲环境技术采纳风险，增加经济激励等。
(7)论文从命令—控制措施、市场措施和公众参与机制三个角度比较了各国农业面源污染管控政策，发现发达国家农业面源污染管控具备几个特点：包括完备的法律法规，高效的管控体系，复合型管控措施，多样的经济激励措施，充分发挥公众的作用等。
(8)论文分析我国农业面源污染管控现状，并建构我国农业面源污染管控体系。包括提出了“共同负担为主，污染者负担为辅”的财政分担方式，“以经济激励为主，行政管制为辅”的管控方式、“生态补偿和生态税费相结合”的管控手段、“以源头治理为主，末端治理为辅”的管控模式，以及一系列具体实施措施。
本文可能的创新点在于：
(1)选题具有前沿性和探索性。农业面源污染问题是伴随中国经济快速发展而在近几年凸现出来的，我国独特的经济发展道路与资源环境禀赋决定了我国农业面源污染具有破坏性大、复杂性高的特点，对该问题的研究具有前沿性和探索性。本文立足于我国国情，借鉴国外的相关研究理论与方法，从技术与经济相结合的角度，对农业面源污染与宏观经济发展、农户经济行为的作用机理以及农业面源污染的管控政策，进行了系统的分析和探索。
(2)内容上的创新。本文尝试从理论及实证角度分析农业面源污染与经济发展的作用机理，得出了一系列有价值的结论，如：经济发展对农业面源污染具有恶化与改善双重影响；经济发展—农业面源污染曲线具有倒“U”型特征；不同的经济发展阶段具有不同的农业面源污染特征；农业生产者环境资源利用的非理性造成“EKC”转折困境等。论文同样从理论及实证的角度分析了农户意识与行为的面源污染效应及其影响因素，发现我国农户意识及行为均不利于农业面源污染减排；论文还通过建构农户行为模型分析了农业政策的面源污染效应，发现我国部分农业政策造成农业面源污染加重，需要将农业环境目标纳入政策目标体系中，从而调整农业政策；此外，论文提出了具有针对性和可操作性的农业面源污染管控框架和政策建议，如：优化农户行为能够减轻经济发展的面源污染效应；以经济激励为主要手段构建农业面源污染管控体系；整合农业政策等。
(3)方法上的创新。论文采用协整理论和格兰杰因果关系检验模型实证检验经济发展与农业面源污染变量之间的关系；利用面板数据用固定效应模型检验了经济发展与农业面源污染的“倒U型”特征。利用回归方法分析了农户农业生产行为特征对农业面源污染的影响。也利用“CVM”条件评估方法，分析了农户农业面源污染意识与支付意愿。得到一些有意义的可靠的研究结论，如：农业面源污染与人均GDP处于同步上升阶段；农户面源污染意识与兼业化程度、家庭收入和教育程
度关系最为密切；农户教育程度高，土地经营规模大，土地不是租用等经营特征减轻面源污染排放等。
虽然论文从理论研究、经验研究和政策研究三个层面对中国农业面源污染的系列问题进行了探讨，但该问题涉及到经济学与环境科学的交叉，还有很多方面的工作亟待下一步的研究：
理论研究方面：经济发展和农业面源污染之间的关系还可以进一步用数理模型来阐述。可以将该问题纳入内生增长模型，分析封闭和开放贸易体系下，经济发展对农业面源污染的影响；此外还应该进一步分析，污染治理对经济发展的影响；农户生产行为的面源污染效应，还应该进一步内生化，将其纳入农户模型进行分析；农业政策的污染效应还可以从动态角度进一步考察。
实证研究方面：原始数据的选取，可以利用农田环境的监测数据进行分析；对农户技术采纳的研究还缺乏更微观的一手资料的数据验证；方法上还可以有所创新，比如经济发展与农业面源污染的“EKC”曲线的验证还可以利用联立方程组方法探讨二者的传导机制。
政策研究方面：可以进一步细化研究不同政策的效果，通过在典型地区的调查基础上，模拟不同政策的实施效果。
Since the entry of the 21st century, with effective control of the point pollution, the non-point source pollution, especially the agricultural non-point source pollution, has gradually become the most serious environmental problem in China. Agricultural non-point source pollution whose destructive force increases gradually is the main source of water and soil pollution, which not only degrades the agricultural ecological system and endangers agricultural safety, but also does harm to the residents' health through water and food and becomes public hazard jeopardizing the national quality. What's more, because of the small scale of production form of China's rural households, it is difficult to control and regulate the agricultural non-point source pollution and it will become more and more prominent with the rapid development of national economy. Therefore, in recent years, the central government has attached great importance to rural environmental problems which are characterized with agricultural non-point source pollution, listed the protection and treatment of rural environment as one of the basic national policies and enacted many laws, regulations and rules to regulate agricultural non-point source pollution. In the "Proposal of CPC Central Committee for Formulating the 11th Five-year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" and the "Guiding Opinion of CPC Central Committee and State Council on Promoting the Construction of a New Socialist Countryside", the new socialist countryside is clearly defined as "incorporated higher productivity, better living standard, communal civility, democratic management, as well as a clean and tidy look", indicating that the control and regulation of agricultural non-point source pollution is of great strategic meaning. It is seen from above background information that the research on China's agricultural non-point source pollution is of great significance.
Based on previous research, the dissertation makes analysis on the social and economic background of the emergence of agricultural non-point source pollution, its microscopic action mechanism and the policy system for its control and regulation by theories of development economics, environmental economics and agricultural economics and approaches of mathematical economics and modern econometrics, so as to understand the social and economic laws of the emergence and aggravation of agricultural non-point source pollution to provide scientific proof for its prevention and treatment. After reviewing the spatio-temporal characteristics of China's agricultural non-point source pollution and its functioning mechanism and coupling relationship with economic development from the macroscopic perspective, the dissertation analyzes the effect of rural households' behavior, like that of production and management and technology application, on non-point pollution with rural households as object of study, revealing the essential relationship between rural households and the agricultural non-point source pollution. Furthermore, it analyzes how to optimize rural households' behavior to promote the treatment of agricultural environmental pollution, seeking means to treat and improve China's agricultural non-point source pollution from both the macroscopic and microscopic perspectives. On the basis of previous analysis, the dissertation analyzes the feasibility of adjusting corresponding policies and tries to establish policies for controlling and regulating agricultural non-point source pollution in order to optimize rural households' behavior, all of which will provide theoretical and practical support for the implementation of the strategy of sustainable development of rural areas and construction of a new socialist countryside, realizing the win-win goal of harmonious development between human beings and nature.
The main content and conclusions of the dissertation are as follows.
Firstly, the dissertation recognizes and grasps current situation, features and spatio-temporal characteristics of China's agricultural non-point source pollution, finding that China's agricultural non-point source pollution is of great destructive power and deeply hidden. With analysis of the agricultural non-point pollutant by corresponding statistical and econometrical approaches, it is found that the indices of agricultural non-point pollution increase linearly as time passes when analyzing time series data while using spatial characteristics the selected indices indicate regional agglomeration to a certain degree and the discharge of main non-point pollutant (fertilizer, pesticide and excretion of livestock and poultry) is in a sequence of eastern area, central area and western area.
Secondly, with previous studies the dissertation makes analysis of the effect of economic development on agricultural non-point pollution from theoretical and empirical perspectives. It is found that the economic development exerts both deteriorating and optimizing effect on the non-point pollution, that the applied force is different in different stages and that the relationship between economic development and non-point pollution is characterized with the inverted "U". According to this, the dissertation establishes rural households' profit function, including the endowment of agricultural environment, discharge of agricultural non-point pollution and income per capita to testify the EKC (Environmental Kuznets Curve) hypothesis about economic development and agricultural non-point pollution. Moreover, when simply fitting the curve of the relationship between economic development and agricultural non-point pollution by using main characteristic variables of China's current economic development, it is found that current economic development in China will aggravate the agricultural non-point pollution. The following empirical analysis in the dissertation supports the result of the theoretical study. It is found that there is causality between three categories of the indices of agricultural non-point pollution and the economic development through error correction model and Granger causality test, that the relationship between the two is characterized with the inverted "U" and the turning point is rather high through the analysis of panel data and that most provinces and cities in China are still in the stage that agricultural non-point pollution increases rapidly as a result of economic development.
Thirdly, by analyzing the microscopic mechanism of reducing the discharge of agricultural non-point source pollution, the dissertation finds out the microscopic reason why agricultural non-point source pollution aggravates with the economic development that rural households' utilization of the environment and resources is irrational which is caused by market failure and government failure, heightening the peak value of "Environmental Kuznets Curve" and postponing the arrival of its turning point. Therefore, it is necessary to make rural households' consciousness and behavior of utilizing the environment and resource rational.
Fourthly, the dissertation makes survey and analysis on the effect of rural households' consciousness on non-point source pollution and the influencing factors by CVM (Contingent Valuation Method). It is found that the fairly important influencing factor that causes agricultural non-point source pollution is fanners' weak environmental consciousness, which is closely connected with their concurrent business, family income and educational level. Thus, it is the effective way to increase farmers' income and strengthen their education to improve their environmental consciousness.
Fifthly, the dissertation makes analysis on the effect of rural households' production behavior on agricultural non-point source pollution and its optimization. It is found that agricultural non-point source pollution can be lessened through large scale of land utilization, high organizing degree, much input of labor force of high quality and permanent investment in agriculture and that current rural households' production behavior in China is not favorable for reducing the discharge of agricultural non-point source pollution which is approved by testifying the investigated data of 300 rural households from Jianghan Plain. Based on rural households' production behavior, the dissertation further analyzes the effect of agricultural polices on non-point source pollution, through which it is found that the increase of land price, drop of the price of agricultural means of production and the policy of comprehensive subsidy for the increase of the price of agricultural means of production aggravate the non-point source pollution while policies of the minimum purchasing price and direct subsidy lessen the pollution. It is concluded that rural households' production behavior and agricultural policies which can influence rural households' behavior should be adjusted.
Sixthly, through the analysis on the effect of rural households' adoption of environment-friendly technologies on non-point source pollution, it is found that rural households' behavior of technology adoption is unfavorable for those environment-friendly technologies. On the other hand, through reviewing relevant literature of empirical analysis, it is found that there is positive correlation between the adoption rate of environment-friendly technologies and farmers' educational level, income level and social status while negative correlation between that and age. Accordingly, the dissertation puts forward inducing measures to increase the adoption rate of environment-friendly technologies, including reducing the adoption risks and increasing economic stimulus and so on.
Seventhly, from the perspectives of control measures, market measures and the mechanism of public participation, the dissertation makes comparison of the policies for controlling and regulating agricultural non-point source pollution of different countries. It is found that developed countries have merits in controlling and regulating agricultural non-point source pollution, including perfect system of laws and regulations, efficient control and regulation system, complex controlling and regulating measures, diversified measures of economic stimulus and full use of public role and so on.
Eighthly, the dissertation makes analysis of current situation of the control and regulation of China's agricultural non-point source pollution and advances to establish the system for its control and regulation, including the financial sharing mode that the financial support should be primarily shared among relevant bodies with polluters bear corresponding expense as complement, the controlling and regulating means which is economic stimulus oriented and complemented with the administrative control and regulation, the controlling and regulating measures which are the combination of ecological compensation and ecological tax and expense, the controlling and regulating mode which is original treatment oriented and complemented with terminal treatment, and a series of measures for implementing such system.
The innovative points of the dissertation are as follows.
Firstly, the topic selected is pioneering and exploratory, for agricultural non-point source pollution emerges with the rapid development of China's economy and is of great destructive power and fair complexity which is determined by China's unique path of economic development and its endowment of nature and environment. With reference to relevant overseas theories and researching approaches and China's national condition, the dissertation makes systematic analysis and exploration of agricultural non-point source pollution from both the technological and economic perspectives, including the functioning mechanism among agricultural non-point source pollution and the macroeconomic development and the rural household economics and the policies for controlling and regulating agricultural non-point source pollution.
The second innovative point lies in the content. The dissertation makes theoretical and empirical analysis of the functioning mechanism between agricultural non-point source pollution and economic development, obtaining a series of valuable conclusions that the economic development exerts deteriorating and improving effect on agricultural non-point source pollution, that the curve of economic development and agricultural non-point source pollution is characterized with the inverted "U", that the characteristics of agricultural non-point source pollution are different during different stages of economic development and that rural households' irrational utilization of the environment and resources results in the dilemma of "EKC" transition. The dissertation also analyzes the effect of rural households' consciousness and behavior on non-point source pollution and the influencing factors from the theoretical and empirical perspectives. It is found that rural households' consciousness and behavior is not favorable for reducing the discharge of agricultural non-point source pollution. By establishing rural households' behavior model, it analyzes the effect of agricultural policies on non-point source pollution, through which it is found that part of the agricultural policies lead to aggravating the non-point source pollution and that it is necessary to bring the goals of agricultural environment into the system of policy goals to adjust agricultural policies. In addition, the dissertation advances the pointed and operable framework and suggestion for controlling and regulating agricultural non-point source pollution, including that optimizing rural households' behavior can lessen the effect of non-point source pollution caused by economic development, that it is necessary to establish the system for controlling and regulating agricultural non-point source pollution with economic stimulus as main means and that agricultural policies should be adjusted and integrated and so on.
Thirdly, the research approaches used in the dissertation are innovative. Cointegration theory and Granger causality test are used to prove the relationship between economic development and variables of agricultural non-point source pollution, as well as fixed effect model with panel data to testify the inverted "U" characteristic of their relationship, regression method to analyze the influence of the characteristics of rural households' production behavior on agricultural non-point source pollution and CVM (Contingent Valuation Method) to rural households' consciousness of non-point source pollution and their willingness to pay. Through the analysis, the dissertation finds some significant and reliable conclusions that the agricultural non-point source pollution rises in step with GDP per capita, that rural households' consciousness is closely connected with their concurrent business, family income and educational level and that the management which is characterized with high level of farmers' education, large operative scale of agricultural land and no renting of land can lessen the discharge of non-point source pollution.
Although the dissertation has discussed the problems existing in China's agricultural non-point source pollution by theoretical study, empirical study and policy study, there are much work needed to do in the future study, for the selected topic is involved with both the economics and environment science.
As to the theoretical research, the relationship between economic development and agricultural non-point source pollution can be further illustrated by mathematical model. The relationship can be brought into endogenous growth model to discuss the influence of economic development on agricultural non-point source pollution in the closed and open trade systems respectively. Besides, the influence of pollution treatment on economic development should be further analyzed, the effect of rural households' production behavior on non-point source pollution should be incorporated into rural households' model and the effect of agricultural policies on the non-point pollution can be studied from the dynamic perspective.
In the empirical research, more work should be done. With regard to the selection of original data, we can use the monitoring data of the farmland environment to do further analysis. There is a shortage of first-hand data to validate the research on rural households' adoption of technologies. In addition, the research approach can be innovated, like the validation of the "EKC" between economic development and agricultural non-point source pollution and the transmission mechanism between the two can be discussed by simultaneous equations.
Concerning the policy research, the effect of different policies should be studied in details via simulating the implementation effect of different policies with the investigation of typical regions.
引文
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