和谐社会指数的构建及应用研究
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摘要
改革开放以来,中国的经济发生了翻天覆地的变化,各项建设所取得的成就举世瞩目。与此同时,社会和环境面临的压力、矛盾及问题逐渐显现,并可能变得更为复杂、更为突出。在此背景下,和谐社会概念应运而生,反映了中国共产党对社会主义事业发展规律的新认识,以及对执政规律、能力、方略和方式的新理解,为实现社会主义现代化目标提供了新的指导方针。通过构建和谐社会指数并对和谐社会进行实证研究,有助于各级政府和人民群众改变单纯追求国内生产总值的观念,以便落实好中共十八届三中全会的决定中“完善发展成果考核评价体系,纠正单纯以经济增长速度评定政绩的偏向”的要求；同时,还可全面反映各地历年和谐社会建设的客观、动态进程,以利于各地从宏观上、空间上和时间上更科学地规划促进与和谐社会相关的一系列建设。
据此,本文以和谐社会内涵、系统构成及作用机制、综合评价等理论为基础,构建了和谐社会综合评价体系框架。通过体系检验、结果测算及结论分析,从特征及影响因素两方面对全国及各省和谐社会建设情况进行了深入研究,并设计开发了全国首个和谐社会综合评价系统。全文主要包括：
第一,阐明了和谐社会评价的理论基础。在系统梳理国内外学者对社会发展评价、和谐社会综合评价等相关研究基础上,从和谐社会内涵出发,阐述和谐社会基本特征及系统构成。
第二,构建了基于PSR框架的和谐社会评价体系。分析表明,本研究构建的评价体系无论从构建思路、逻辑层次还是指标选取方面都有所改善,既保证了整体与局部的结构关系,又不失前因后果等逻辑联系。指标选取方面更是采用一配对的方式,以保证各维度紧密相连,有助于从源头上提高测算结果的科学性与有效性。
第三,测算了和谐社会指数,并剖析了全国及各省和谐社会指数特征。根据构建的和谐社会评价指标体系,通过指标筛选、体系检验、指标赋权等步骤,测算了2007—2012年全国及各省和谐社会分指数和总指数结果。首先,对指数特征进行定义,并选定具体分类方法,对和谐社会分指数和总指数进行了描述性特征分析,结果表明：和谐社会分指数差异性很大,历年各省呈现不同特征,并具有“东部优于西部,北方低于南方”的规律。其次,利用Logistic模型和多指标面板数据聚类方法对和谐社会指数进行时空特征分析,结果表明：各省进入和谐社会不同发展阶段的时间点有所差异,但各阶段经历周期大致相同。省域聚类数量与传统地理区位划分数目一样,但各类别包含省份相差甚远。第1类仅包含有北京和上海两个城市。第3类所包含的省市基本属于中部省市,但包括了东部地区的广东省。此外,第4类包含的省市主要是西部地区和东北地区。
第四,分析了和谐社会指数的影响因素。通过分析和谐社会影响因素来源,对其进行分类,并利用灰色关联模型、Moran's Ⅰ指数和纳入了空间效应的空间滞后模型与空间误差模型分别分析了时间、空间及时空混合影响因素。结果表明：经济发展水平和社会贫富差距是影响最大的时间动态因素,而地理位置是最重要的空间结构影响因素。此外,当期GDP增长率、就业人员平均劳动报酬、城乡收入差距和城乡消费支出比对和谐社会指数在省域之间有显著的正向空间扩散(溢出)效应和较强的空间依赖作用。
第五,设计开发了十分实用、便捷的“和谐社会综合评价系统”软件。该评价系统主要从维度选择、数据导入与测算、结果分析3个方面进行编程和开发。此外,从指数发布、报告出版及数据库搭建3方面设计出和谐社会指数的应用实施方案,使和谐社会综合评价的理论落地,操作性更强。
第六,构建了和谐社会总系统及子系统演化模拟模型,通过数值拟合及政策仿真模拟和谐社会演化过程,并据此提出政策建议。从经济、社会和环境3个系统构建和谐社会模拟模型。各系统均能较好地通过模型误差检验和灵敏度分析。同时,将3个系统包含的政策重组为10类并进行单独模拟。
最后,提出了构建和谐社会的政策建议：一是各级政府应通过缩小城乡居民收入差距、扩大就业、加强生态环境保护及加大反腐力度,从源头纾解和谐社会建设压力；二是各级政府应通过优化居民商品住宅供给结构、促进各地区协调发展、保持国民经济的持续稳步增长及和谐社会建设的良好态势；三是各级政府应通过加强社会安全监督、完善社会保障制度与和谐社会评价体系,强化和谐社会建设保障措施,以期早日实现和谐社会,共圆中国梦。
Since the reform and opening up, enormous changes have taken place in China's economy, with remarkable achievements in all construction projects. At the same time, the social and environmental pressure, various contradictions and problems have gradually being emerged, and they may become more complex and outstanding. The concept of a harmonious society was developed against this background, it reflects the CPC's new recognition and understanding of the development rules of the socialist endertakings as well as governing rules, abilities, strategies and approaches, and provides new guidelines to realize the goal of socialist modernization. Constructing a harmonious society index and doing an empirical study accordingly will not only help people and governments at all levels change the idea of simply pursuing GDP, but also assist implementing the requirement of "perfecting the evaluation system of development achievements and correcting the tendency of evaluating the government performance only based on the speed of economic growth", which was determined in the decision document of the Third Plenary Session of the18th Central Committee of the CPC. Meanwhile, this study can also fully reflect the objective and dynamic process of constructing a harmonious society in all regions over the past years, so as to greatly facilitate more plans in large scale and in the long run to promote scientific constructions related to a harmonious society.
This thesis constructs a comprehensive evaluation system framework of a harmonious society based on its connotations, system structure and function mechanism, as well as comprehensive evaluation theory, etc. With the system test, results measurement and conclusion analysis, a complet research is carried on from two aspects of characteristics and influencing factors on the conditions of constructing a harmonious society around the nation and in each province. What's more, the first comprehensive evaluation software in the nation for a harmonious society is designed and developed. The main work and conclusions are as follows:
Firstly, it clarifies the theoretical basis of the harmonious society evaluation. Based on reviewing the studies on social development evaluation and comprehensive evaluation of a harmonious society, the basic features and system constitution of a harmonious society are evaluated from the connotation.
Secondly, it builds up a harmonious society evaluation system based on the PSR framework. The analysis shows that this new evaluation system has been greatly improved in ideas, logical hierarchy and indicator selecting. It not only ensures the structural relationship as a whole or in parts, but also keeps logical link in causes and effects. Indicator selecting follows the way of matching in pairs, which ensures close links among all dimensions and helps improve scientific validity of the calculation results from the source.
Thirdly, it estimates the harmonious society index, and figures out the features of the national and provincial harmonious society indexes. According to the indicator system of harmonious society evaluation, after the steps of selecting indicators, testing the system and estimating the weights of indicators, the national harmonious society index and each provincial harmonious society index are estimated from2007to2012. First, it defines the characteristics of the index, and chooses the specific classification method. Then, it analyzes the descriptive characteristics of the harmonious society sub-index and the total index. The result shows that there exists great differences among harmonious society sub-indexes, and each province's index varies widely over the past years, with the feature named "east is better than that of the west, and north is lower than the south." After that, it analyzes the spatial and temporal characteristics of a harmonious society indexes by using the Logistic Model and the clustering method of multi-variable panel data. The result indicates that there exists time point's difference when different provinces enter various development stages to a harmonious society, except for the cycle of various stages. The number of the provinces cluster number is the same as that of the traditional geographical divisions, but each cluster includes far different provinces. Class I includes only Beijing and Shanghai. Provinces included in Class Ⅲ are basically the provinces in central China, together with Guangdong Province in the eastern district. In addition, Class IV consists mainly of major provinces in the western and northeastern regions of China.
Fourthly, it analyzes the impact factors of a harmonious society index. By analyzing and categorizing the sources of various impact factors, with the gray correlation model, the Moran's I index and the spatial lag model and the spatial error model, to analyze temporal, spatial and temporal-spatial mixing factors. The results show that the level of economic development and social disparity are two more important dynamic impact factors, and location is the most important spatial impact factor. In addition, the current GDP growth, employment average labor pay, the income gap between urban and rural and consumption expenditure ratio have significant positive spatial diffusion (spillover) effects and strong spatial dependence effect to the harmonious society index among different provinces.
Fifthly, it designs and develops "a comprehensive evaluation system for a harmonious society". It is a piece of very convenient and pratical software. This evaluation system is mainly programmed and developed from three aspects of the dimension selection, data input and calculation, and results analysis. Besides, it designs an implementation plan of the harmonious society index from the aspects of the index report, report publication and databases set-up, so that the comprehensive evaluation theories of a harmonious society are more realistic and operational.
Sixthly, it builds an overall system and subsystems evolution simulation models of a harmonious society, and proposes suggestions according to simulating the evolution of a harmonious society with numerical fitting and policies simulataion. It constructs the simulation model of a harmonious society from the economic, social and environmental system, and each system can undergo the model error checking and sensitivity test. Meanwhile, the policies included in three systems are reorganized into10categories and simulated separately. According to their impact on effect, these four policies, named income policy, public security policy, employment policy and environmental policy, are the most important policies, and the less important policies are health policy, consumer policy and education policy.
At the end, it proposes some suggestions. Governments at all levels should narrow the income gap between urban and rural residents by expanding employment, strengthen environmental protection and anti-corruption campaign, and reduce the system pressure to construct a harmonious society from the source. Governments at all levels should optimize the structure of residents'commodity housing supply, promote the coordinated development of all regions, and maintain a nice development trend in the construction of a harmonious society. Governments at all levels should also strengthen security measures of a harmonious society with better social safety supervision, improving the social security system and social harmony evaluation system. Thus, we can realize a harmonious society as early as possible and make the China's Dream come true.
据此,本文以和谐社会内涵、系统构成及作用机制、综合评价等理论为基础,构建了和谐社会综合评价体系框架。通过体系检验、结果测算及结论分析,从特征及影响因素两方面对全国及各省和谐社会建设情况进行了深入研究,并设计开发了全国首个和谐社会综合评价系统。全文主要包括：
第一,阐明了和谐社会评价的理论基础。在系统梳理国内外学者对社会发展评价、和谐社会综合评价等相关研究基础上,从和谐社会内涵出发,阐述和谐社会基本特征及系统构成。
第二,构建了基于PSR框架的和谐社会评价体系。分析表明,本研究构建的评价体系无论从构建思路、逻辑层次还是指标选取方面都有所改善,既保证了整体与局部的结构关系,又不失前因后果等逻辑联系。指标选取方面更是采用一配对的方式,以保证各维度紧密相连,有助于从源头上提高测算结果的科学性与有效性。
第三,测算了和谐社会指数,并剖析了全国及各省和谐社会指数特征。根据构建的和谐社会评价指标体系,通过指标筛选、体系检验、指标赋权等步骤,测算了2007—2012年全国及各省和谐社会分指数和总指数结果。首先,对指数特征进行定义,并选定具体分类方法,对和谐社会分指数和总指数进行了描述性特征分析,结果表明：和谐社会分指数差异性很大,历年各省呈现不同特征,并具有“东部优于西部,北方低于南方”的规律。其次,利用Logistic模型和多指标面板数据聚类方法对和谐社会指数进行时空特征分析,结果表明：各省进入和谐社会不同发展阶段的时间点有所差异,但各阶段经历周期大致相同。省域聚类数量与传统地理区位划分数目一样,但各类别包含省份相差甚远。第1类仅包含有北京和上海两个城市。第3类所包含的省市基本属于中部省市,但包括了东部地区的广东省。此外,第4类包含的省市主要是西部地区和东北地区。
第四,分析了和谐社会指数的影响因素。通过分析和谐社会影响因素来源,对其进行分类,并利用灰色关联模型、Moran's Ⅰ指数和纳入了空间效应的空间滞后模型与空间误差模型分别分析了时间、空间及时空混合影响因素。结果表明：经济发展水平和社会贫富差距是影响最大的时间动态因素,而地理位置是最重要的空间结构影响因素。此外,当期GDP增长率、就业人员平均劳动报酬、城乡收入差距和城乡消费支出比对和谐社会指数在省域之间有显著的正向空间扩散(溢出)效应和较强的空间依赖作用。
第五,设计开发了十分实用、便捷的“和谐社会综合评价系统”软件。该评价系统主要从维度选择、数据导入与测算、结果分析3个方面进行编程和开发。此外,从指数发布、报告出版及数据库搭建3方面设计出和谐社会指数的应用实施方案,使和谐社会综合评价的理论落地,操作性更强。
第六,构建了和谐社会总系统及子系统演化模拟模型,通过数值拟合及政策仿真模拟和谐社会演化过程,并据此提出政策建议。从经济、社会和环境3个系统构建和谐社会模拟模型。各系统均能较好地通过模型误差检验和灵敏度分析。同时,将3个系统包含的政策重组为10类并进行单独模拟。
最后,提出了构建和谐社会的政策建议：一是各级政府应通过缩小城乡居民收入差距、扩大就业、加强生态环境保护及加大反腐力度,从源头纾解和谐社会建设压力；二是各级政府应通过优化居民商品住宅供给结构、促进各地区协调发展、保持国民经济的持续稳步增长及和谐社会建设的良好态势；三是各级政府应通过加强社会安全监督、完善社会保障制度与和谐社会评价体系,强化和谐社会建设保障措施,以期早日实现和谐社会,共圆中国梦。
Since the reform and opening up, enormous changes have taken place in China's economy, with remarkable achievements in all construction projects. At the same time, the social and environmental pressure, various contradictions and problems have gradually being emerged, and they may become more complex and outstanding. The concept of a harmonious society was developed against this background, it reflects the CPC's new recognition and understanding of the development rules of the socialist endertakings as well as governing rules, abilities, strategies and approaches, and provides new guidelines to realize the goal of socialist modernization. Constructing a harmonious society index and doing an empirical study accordingly will not only help people and governments at all levels change the idea of simply pursuing GDP, but also assist implementing the requirement of "perfecting the evaluation system of development achievements and correcting the tendency of evaluating the government performance only based on the speed of economic growth", which was determined in the decision document of the Third Plenary Session of the18th Central Committee of the CPC. Meanwhile, this study can also fully reflect the objective and dynamic process of constructing a harmonious society in all regions over the past years, so as to greatly facilitate more plans in large scale and in the long run to promote scientific constructions related to a harmonious society.
This thesis constructs a comprehensive evaluation system framework of a harmonious society based on its connotations, system structure and function mechanism, as well as comprehensive evaluation theory, etc. With the system test, results measurement and conclusion analysis, a complet research is carried on from two aspects of characteristics and influencing factors on the conditions of constructing a harmonious society around the nation and in each province. What's more, the first comprehensive evaluation software in the nation for a harmonious society is designed and developed. The main work and conclusions are as follows:
Firstly, it clarifies the theoretical basis of the harmonious society evaluation. Based on reviewing the studies on social development evaluation and comprehensive evaluation of a harmonious society, the basic features and system constitution of a harmonious society are evaluated from the connotation.
Secondly, it builds up a harmonious society evaluation system based on the PSR framework. The analysis shows that this new evaluation system has been greatly improved in ideas, logical hierarchy and indicator selecting. It not only ensures the structural relationship as a whole or in parts, but also keeps logical link in causes and effects. Indicator selecting follows the way of matching in pairs, which ensures close links among all dimensions and helps improve scientific validity of the calculation results from the source.
Thirdly, it estimates the harmonious society index, and figures out the features of the national and provincial harmonious society indexes. According to the indicator system of harmonious society evaluation, after the steps of selecting indicators, testing the system and estimating the weights of indicators, the national harmonious society index and each provincial harmonious society index are estimated from2007to2012. First, it defines the characteristics of the index, and chooses the specific classification method. Then, it analyzes the descriptive characteristics of the harmonious society sub-index and the total index. The result shows that there exists great differences among harmonious society sub-indexes, and each province's index varies widely over the past years, with the feature named "east is better than that of the west, and north is lower than the south." After that, it analyzes the spatial and temporal characteristics of a harmonious society indexes by using the Logistic Model and the clustering method of multi-variable panel data. The result indicates that there exists time point's difference when different provinces enter various development stages to a harmonious society, except for the cycle of various stages. The number of the provinces cluster number is the same as that of the traditional geographical divisions, but each cluster includes far different provinces. Class I includes only Beijing and Shanghai. Provinces included in Class Ⅲ are basically the provinces in central China, together with Guangdong Province in the eastern district. In addition, Class IV consists mainly of major provinces in the western and northeastern regions of China.
Fourthly, it analyzes the impact factors of a harmonious society index. By analyzing and categorizing the sources of various impact factors, with the gray correlation model, the Moran's I index and the spatial lag model and the spatial error model, to analyze temporal, spatial and temporal-spatial mixing factors. The results show that the level of economic development and social disparity are two more important dynamic impact factors, and location is the most important spatial impact factor. In addition, the current GDP growth, employment average labor pay, the income gap between urban and rural and consumption expenditure ratio have significant positive spatial diffusion (spillover) effects and strong spatial dependence effect to the harmonious society index among different provinces.
Fifthly, it designs and develops "a comprehensive evaluation system for a harmonious society". It is a piece of very convenient and pratical software. This evaluation system is mainly programmed and developed from three aspects of the dimension selection, data input and calculation, and results analysis. Besides, it designs an implementation plan of the harmonious society index from the aspects of the index report, report publication and databases set-up, so that the comprehensive evaluation theories of a harmonious society are more realistic and operational.
Sixthly, it builds an overall system and subsystems evolution simulation models of a harmonious society, and proposes suggestions according to simulating the evolution of a harmonious society with numerical fitting and policies simulataion. It constructs the simulation model of a harmonious society from the economic, social and environmental system, and each system can undergo the model error checking and sensitivity test. Meanwhile, the policies included in three systems are reorganized into10categories and simulated separately. According to their impact on effect, these four policies, named income policy, public security policy, employment policy and environmental policy, are the most important policies, and the less important policies are health policy, consumer policy and education policy.
At the end, it proposes some suggestions. Governments at all levels should narrow the income gap between urban and rural residents by expanding employment, strengthen environmental protection and anti-corruption campaign, and reduce the system pressure to construct a harmonious society from the source. Governments at all levels should optimize the structure of residents'commodity housing supply, promote the coordinated development of all regions, and maintain a nice development trend in the construction of a harmonious society. Governments at all levels should also strengthen security measures of a harmonious society with better social safety supervision, improving the social security system and social harmony evaluation system. Thus, we can realize a harmonious society as early as possible and make the China's Dream come true.
引文
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