电力系统动态仿真模型及参数有效性评估
|
摘要
随着我国经济的快速发展,电力系统也日益庞大与复杂。一方面电网互联使得电网规模越来越大,另一方面科技的进步使得新型设备不断的在电网中投运。保证电力系统安全运行就需要工作人员准确掌握系统的动态特性,这就必须要借助于电力系统动态仿真。因此保证电力系统动态仿真的可信度对于保证系统运行的安全性、经济性起着举足轻重的作用。提高先验仿真结果的可信度需要提高参与仿真计算的模型及参数的有效性。本文按后验仿真验证、模型及参数有效性评估、先验仿真结果可信度评估这个流程对如何评估模型有效性、如何评估仿真结果可信度进行了研究。
后验仿真准确度评估是所有工作的基础,目前的评估方法主要是从数值方面来评估曲线相似性,忽略了曲线的动态特性。本文从曲线的数值与曲线的形状两方面来比较时间序列的相似性,进而合理的评估后验仿真准确度。本文分别利用规范系数法与界标分界法计算曲线形状相似度,评估了系统及单个元件的仿真准确度。评估系统仿真准确度时,综合考虑了关键节点的电压幅值、相角、有功、无功,避免评估结果的片面性；评估单个元件的模型的仿真准确度时,利用实测数据对模型进行混合仿真,评估时还考虑了不同时段仿真误差对评估结果的影响。
由于系统中元件数目庞大,对所有元件模型进行校核比较费时。本文通过详细的统计分析,从模型的建模理论完善程度和参数来源的可信程度两方面对模型有效性进行等级划分,进而计算出模型及参数的有效性指标值。利用每次系统扰动所记录的实测数据对单个模型或者一个子网进行混合仿真,根据仿真结果的准确度对模型的有效性指标进行动态修正。工作人员根据模型及参数的有效性指标值能提高误差溯源的速度。
所有工作的目的就是要合理评估与提高先验仿真的可信度。本文利用模型及参数的有效性指标值,对先验仿真结果进行可信度评估。由于扰动时不是所有元件都参与系统的动态行为,而且不同元件对系统的动态特性影响也不同,所以在评估过程中,同时考虑了模型重要度与模型参与度两种因素。这使得可信度评估结果更合理、科学。
The grid becomes more and more large and complex with the national economy develops quickly.One side the scope of the grid is larger than before as the result of the grids are interconneted, the other side new types of equipments are put into operation continually with technological progress. Only the staff of the grid company must learn about the dynamic character of grid accuratly that the grid can run safely, this must resort to the dynamic simulation. So to guarantee the reliability degree of the dynamic simulation result is critical to the safety and economy of the grid operation..The best way to improve the reliability of simulation result is to improve the validity of the model and its parameters used in dynamic simulation. In the paper the problems of how to set up the system of evaluating the validity of model and its paramters and how to evaluate the reliability of the prior simulation result are analyzed following the order that post simulation validation, validity evaluation of model and its parameters, reliability evaluation of prior simulation. The main creative achievements are shown as following:
Accuracy assessment of posterior simulation is the base of all work. The current assessment methods are mainly to assess the curve from the numerical similarity aspects and ignore the dynamic aspects. From the two sides of the curve data values and shape to compare the similarity of the time series, so evalating the result of post dynamic simulation is more reasonable.Based on the criterion and landmark dividing method the shape similarity of the measured data and the simulation results is compared, also the difference of each time intervals is also considered.When evaluating accuracy of the system simulation, the physical data of critical nodes, voltage, angle, active power, reactive power are compared generally.
Due to the large number of system components, it is time-consuming to validate the entire components model. Based on the detailed investigation, the model is analysed from the perfect degree of modeling theory and the reliability of the way by which the parameters can be get. So the index value of validity of model and its parameters can be computed. By use of the measured data recorded when the power system is disturbed, the hybrid simulation can be run according to a model or a subnet, then the accuracy degree of post simualtion can be evaluated and the index value of validity of model and its paramters can be modified. According to the index of validity, the engineers can improve the speed of error traceability.
All aim is to make a reasonable assessment of the credibility of a priori simulation and enhance credibility. By use of the index of validity of model and its paramters, the reliability degree of prior simulation result can be evaluated. During the disturbance, not all the equipments participate in the dynamic behavior of the system and the impact of each device on the dynamic behavior is different, so two factors, degree of model participation and degree of model importance, are considered during the evaluation. This makes the evaluation result more reasonable.:
后验仿真准确度评估是所有工作的基础,目前的评估方法主要是从数值方面来评估曲线相似性,忽略了曲线的动态特性。本文从曲线的数值与曲线的形状两方面来比较时间序列的相似性,进而合理的评估后验仿真准确度。本文分别利用规范系数法与界标分界法计算曲线形状相似度,评估了系统及单个元件的仿真准确度。评估系统仿真准确度时,综合考虑了关键节点的电压幅值、相角、有功、无功,避免评估结果的片面性；评估单个元件的模型的仿真准确度时,利用实测数据对模型进行混合仿真,评估时还考虑了不同时段仿真误差对评估结果的影响。
由于系统中元件数目庞大,对所有元件模型进行校核比较费时。本文通过详细的统计分析,从模型的建模理论完善程度和参数来源的可信程度两方面对模型有效性进行等级划分,进而计算出模型及参数的有效性指标值。利用每次系统扰动所记录的实测数据对单个模型或者一个子网进行混合仿真,根据仿真结果的准确度对模型的有效性指标进行动态修正。工作人员根据模型及参数的有效性指标值能提高误差溯源的速度。
所有工作的目的就是要合理评估与提高先验仿真的可信度。本文利用模型及参数的有效性指标值,对先验仿真结果进行可信度评估。由于扰动时不是所有元件都参与系统的动态行为,而且不同元件对系统的动态特性影响也不同,所以在评估过程中,同时考虑了模型重要度与模型参与度两种因素。这使得可信度评估结果更合理、科学。
The grid becomes more and more large and complex with the national economy develops quickly.One side the scope of the grid is larger than before as the result of the grids are interconneted, the other side new types of equipments are put into operation continually with technological progress. Only the staff of the grid company must learn about the dynamic character of grid accuratly that the grid can run safely, this must resort to the dynamic simulation. So to guarantee the reliability degree of the dynamic simulation result is critical to the safety and economy of the grid operation..The best way to improve the reliability of simulation result is to improve the validity of the model and its parameters used in dynamic simulation. In the paper the problems of how to set up the system of evaluating the validity of model and its paramters and how to evaluate the reliability of the prior simulation result are analyzed following the order that post simulation validation, validity evaluation of model and its parameters, reliability evaluation of prior simulation. The main creative achievements are shown as following:
Accuracy assessment of posterior simulation is the base of all work. The current assessment methods are mainly to assess the curve from the numerical similarity aspects and ignore the dynamic aspects. From the two sides of the curve data values and shape to compare the similarity of the time series, so evalating the result of post dynamic simulation is more reasonable.Based on the criterion and landmark dividing method the shape similarity of the measured data and the simulation results is compared, also the difference of each time intervals is also considered.When evaluating accuracy of the system simulation, the physical data of critical nodes, voltage, angle, active power, reactive power are compared generally.
Due to the large number of system components, it is time-consuming to validate the entire components model. Based on the detailed investigation, the model is analysed from the perfect degree of modeling theory and the reliability of the way by which the parameters can be get. So the index value of validity of model and its parameters can be computed. By use of the measured data recorded when the power system is disturbed, the hybrid simulation can be run according to a model or a subnet, then the accuracy degree of post simualtion can be evaluated and the index value of validity of model and its paramters can be modified. According to the index of validity, the engineers can improve the speed of error traceability.
All aim is to make a reasonable assessment of the credibility of a priori simulation and enhance credibility. By use of the index of validity of model and its paramters, the reliability degree of prior simulation result can be evaluated. During the disturbance, not all the equipments participate in the dynamic behavior of the system and the impact of each device on the dynamic behavior is different, so two factors, degree of model participation and degree of model importance, are considered during the evaluation. This makes the evaluation result more reasonable.:
引文
[1]贺仁睦.电力系统精确仿真与负荷模型实用化.电力系统自动化,2004,28(16)：4-7.
[2]杨德先,陈德树,陈卫,吴彤.特高压交流输电系统的动态物理模型.电力系统自动化,2008,32(22)：36-40.
[3]赵良,郭强,覃琴,张克,张文朝.特高压同步电网稳定特性分析.中国电机工程学报,2008,28(34)：47-51.
[4]舒印彪,张文亮.特高压同步电网安全性评估.中国电机工程学报,2008,27(33)：1-6.
[5]孙元章,杨军,张晓东,彭晓涛,刘焱.电力系统动态仿真中的继电保护模型.电力系统自动化,2009,33(20)：47-51.
[6]韩冬.大区电网实测负荷建模及仿真验证的研究.北京：华北电力大学博士学位论文,2009.
[7]李颖,贺仁睦.负荷与PSS相互作用对系统动态稳定的影响.电力系统自动化,2004,28(8)：40-44.
[8]周成,贺仁睦.模型结构对负荷模型泛化能力的影响.电力系统自动化,2008,32(14)：1-6.
[9]高松,贺仁睦,马进,张进.电力系统动态仿真误差评定准则研究.电力系统自动化,2006,30(4)：6-10.
[10]Han Dong,He Renmu. Power System Dynamic Simulation Validation Based on Similarity Theory and Analytical Hierarchy Process. Proceedings of 2006 International Conference on Power System Technology, Chongqing, China, Nov 4-9, 2006.
[11]张进.电力系统动态仿真可信度研究.北京：华北电力大学(北京)博士学位论文,2005.
[12]李鹏波,张金槐.仿真可信度研究综述.计算机仿真,2000,17(4)：12-14.
[13]王子才，张冰,杨明.仿真系统的校核、验证与验收(VV&A)：现状与未来.系统仿真学报,1999,11(5)：321—325.
[14]Fang Ke, Yang Ming, Wang Zi-cai. A VV&A evaluation system based on hierarchical evaluation. Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology (New Series),2005,12(2): 184-188.
[15]San Ye, Chen Jian-ming. VV&A and confidence assessment of a complex giant system simulation model. Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology (New Series), 2004,11(5):469-473.
[16]Guobing Sun, Ming Yang, Songyan Wang. Study on Credibility Evaluation Indexes of Synthetic Natural Environment Conceptual Model in Simulation Systems. Proceedings of the Systems and Control in Aerospace and Astronautics 2006, Harbin, China,2006:265-266.
[17]Yaxin Tan, Jingye Wang, Wei Zhang. Discussion on Credibility Theory of Simulation Application. Proceedings of System Simulation and Scientific Computing 2008, Beijing, China,2008:368-374.
[18]William L, Oberkampf, Timothy G Trucano. Verification and validation benchmarks. Nuclear Engineering and Design,2008,23 (8):716-743.
[19]Osman Balci. How to Assess the Acceptability and Credibility of Simulation Resulsts. The 1989 winter Simulation Conference.1989, Dec4-6, Washington, D.C.
[20]Osman Balci. Principles and Techniques of Simulation Validation, Verification and Testing. The 1995 Winter Simulation Conference.1995, Dec 3-6, Piscataway, NJ, 1995.
[21]Osman Balci. Verification Validation and Certification of Modeling and Simulation Applications. The 2003 Winter Simulation Conference.2003, Dec 7-10, New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.
[22]Osman Balci, Said D.Saadi. Proposed Standard Processes for Certification of Modeling and Simulation Applications. The 2002 winter simulation Conference.2002, Dec 8-11,San Diego California
[23]Osman Balci. Quality Assessment, Verification and Validation of Modeling and Simulation Applications. The 2004 winter simulation Conference.2004, Dec5-8, Washington, D.C.
[24]吴晓燕,许素红,刘兴堂.仿真系统VV&A标准／规范研究的现状与军事需求分析.系统仿真技术,2003,15(8)：1081-1084.
[25]许素红,吴晓燕.建模与仿真VV&A相关概念、定义和术语研究.计算机仿真,2004,21(2)：50-52.
[26]唐见兵,查亚兵,李革.仿真VV&A研究综述.计算机仿真,2006,23(11)：82-85.
[27]王曙钊,刘兴堂,吴晓燕,田新华.关于VV&A基层指标度量模型的研究.系统仿真学报,2008,19(19)：4367-4370.
[28]Jun-tao Wang,, Fei-yan Min. Knowledge Elicitation and Acquisition for Simulation Validation. International Conference on Computational Intelligence and Security Workshops 2007.2007, Dec 15-19, Harbin, China.
[29]孙成松,花传杰,李永.关于仿真可信度评估及仿真VV&A的探讨.计算机仿真,,2005,22(5)：74-77.
[30]刘晓平,郑利平,路强,李琳.仿真VV&A标准和规范研究现状及分析.系统仿真学报,2007,19(2)：456-460.
[31]吴立人.仿真模型有效性定量确认方法.导弹与航天运载技术,2000,(4)：23-26.
[32]李庆民,刘君,张志华.武器系统仿真模型的可信性验证方法研究.系统仿真学报,2006,18(2)：3380-3382.
[33]王海涛,朱根才,贲德,石燕.射频仿真系统的误差分析与可信度评估研究.系统仿真学报,2007,19(7)：1548-1550.
[34]查亚兵.结果验证的频谱比较方法.系统仿真学报,1997,9(3)：22—26.
[35]李鹏波,谢红卫.现代谱估计方法在仿真可信性研究中的应用.计算机仿真,1999,16(1)：45-48.
[36]刘鹏,陈长兴,王革命等.基于谱估计法的仿真系统模型检验.信号处理,2001,17(4)：378-381.
[37]李鹏波,高霞.应用最大熵谱估计进行导弹系统的仿真模型验证.国防科技大学学报,1999,21(2)：9-12.
[38]魏华梁,刘藻珍.交叉谱估计及其在导弹系统仿真模型验证中的应用.系统仿真学报,1997,9(3)：116-120.
[39]李鹏波,谢红卫.应用瞬时谱估计方法验证近炸引信的数字仿真模型.国防科技大学学报,1998,20(1)：47-50.
[40]柳世考,刘兴堂,李军.利用相似理论进行仿真系统模型验证.计算机仿真,2001,18(6)：1-3.
[41]郭巍,李云芝,姜振东.用相似理论讨论仿真的可信度.系统仿真学报,1999,10(2)：113-116.
[42]柳世考,刘兴堂,张文.利用相似度对仿真系统可信度进行定量评估.系统仿真学报,2003,14(2)：143-145.
[43]焦鹏,唐建兵,查亚兵.仿真可信度评估中相似度方法的改进及其应用.系统仿真学报,2007,19(12)：2658-2660.
[44]焦鹏,查亚兵.层次分析法在制导仿真系统可信度评估中的应用.计算机仿真,2005,22(9)：68-72.
[45]杨惠珍,康凤举,李俊.基于模糊AHP的系统仿真可信度评估方法.计算机仿真,20(8)：43-46.
[46]冉承新,凌云翔.AHP-Fuzzy在仿真系统可信度综合评价中的应用.计算机仿真,2005,22(8)：59—61.
[47]柳世考,刘兴堂.一种有效评估大型复杂仿真系统可信度的新方法.系统仿真学报,2001,13(5)：666-669.
[48]张伟,王行仁.仿真可信度模糊评判.系统仿真学报,2001,13(4)：473-475.
[49]孙勇成,周献中,江金龙,李桂芳.基于灰色聚类法的仿真系统可信度分析.计算机仿真,2005,22(10)：94-96.
[50]王立国,薛青,孟宪权,李平.用粗糙集理论探讨仿真的可信度.计算机应用研究,2008,25(6)：1690—1697.
[51]赵敏荣,高鹏,惠剑.大型复杂仿真系统模型验证的有效途径.航空计算技术,2003,33(2)：15-17.
[52]闫怀志,胡昌镇,张百海.机电系统动力学数字仿真可信性研究与应用.探测与控制学报,2003,25(1)：37-41.
[53]Schaeffer, C. Summary of the SERC generator modeling validation task force (GMVTF)'s on-going development of a SERC supplement to NERC planning standard II.B. (system modeling data requirements-generation equipment). IEEE Power Engineering Society General Meeting,2003, Volume:3, July 13-17:1323-1325.
[54]WECC Modeling and Validation Work Group Generator Certification Criteria. 1999,10.
[55]鞠平,倪腊琴,韩敬东.同步发电机参数辨识的模拟进化方法.电工技术学报,1999,14(5)：1-4.
[56]苏小林,周双喜.Prony法在同步发电机参数辨识中应用.电力自动化设备,2006,26(9)：1-4.
[57]Chiang-Tsung Huang, Hsiao-Dong Chiang. On-line Measurement-Based Model Parameter Estimation For Synchronous Generators:Model Development & Identification Schemes. IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion,1994,9(2): 330-336.
[58]赵争鸣,郑逢时,黄英矩,蒋建民,李伟清等.大型同步发电机参数在线辨识系统校验与分析.清华大学学报(自然科学版),1998,38(9)：14-16.
[59]Louis N. Hannett, James W. Feltes. Testing and model Validation for combined-cycle power plants. IEEE Power Engineering Society Winter Meeting,2001,Jan 28-31,Columbus, OH, USA.
[60]M. Martinsa, A. Perdanaa, P. Ledesmab, E. Agneholma, O. Carlsona. Validation of fixed speed wind turbine dynamic models with measured data. Renewable Power, 2007, (32):1301-1316.
[61]Gord Haines, Joel Barton. A Generation Utilities'Experience with Generator Stability Model Validation Testing. IEEE Power Engineering Society General Meeting, 2003,2003,July 13-17, Toronto, Canada.
[62]Rasheek M. Rifaat. Independent Power Producers (IPP) Perspectives and Experiences with WSCC Requirements for Generator Model Validation Tests. IEEE Industry Applications Conference,2000, Oct 08-Oct 12, Rome, Italy.
[63]Z. Huang, R. Guttromson, J. Hauer. Large-Scale Hybrid Dynamic Simulation Employing Field Measurements. Proceedings of the IEEE PES General Meeting, Denver, USA:IEEE Power Energy Society, June 2004.
[64]Zhengyu Huang,Dmitry Kosterev,Ross T. Guttromson,Tony Nguyen. Model Validation with Hybrid Dynamic Simulation. Proceedings of the IEEE PES General Meeting, Montreal, Canada:IEEE Power Energy Society, June 20055.
[65]贺仁睦,沈峰.发电机励磁系统建模与参数辨识综述.电网技术,2007,31(14)：62-67.
[66]IEEE Power Engineering Society.421.4TM IEEE Guide for the Preparation of Excitation System Specifications. USA,2004.
[67]潘炜,刘文颖,李杨楠,杨以涵等.采用实测励磁系统参数提高西北电网输送能力的研究.电网技术,2008,32(11)：34-39.
[68]马进,王景钢,贺仁睦.电力系统动态仿真的灵敏度分析.电力系统自动化,2005,29(17)：20-27.
[69]武诚,徐政,潘武略,张静.原动机与调速器建模和参数辨识的新进展.电网技术,2007,31(6)：179-182.
[70]Shawn Patterson, Dmitry Kosterev, Donald Davies. New Thermal Governor Model Selection and Validation in the WECC IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2004, 19(1),517-523.
[71]朱方,汤涌,张东霞等.发电机励磁和调速器模型参数对东北电网大扰动试验仿真计算的影响.电网技术,2007,31(4)：69-74.
[72]石景海,贺仁睦.动态负荷建模中的负荷时变性研究.中国电机工程学报,2004,24(4)：67-72.
[73]石景海.考虑负荷时变性的大区电网负荷建模研究.北京：华北电力大学博士学位论文,2005.
[74]贺仁睦,徐衍会,马进,韩冬.人工三相短路试验数据验证的负荷实测建模方法.电网技术,2007,31(4)：59-64.
[75]马进,贺仁睦,王景钢等.综合负荷模型参数的简化辨识策略.电网技术,2006,30(9)：28-34.
[76]Ma Jin, Han Dong, He Renmu, et al. Reducing Identified Parameters of Measurement-Based Composite Load Model. IEEE Transactions. on Power Systems, 2008,23(1):76-83.
[77]陈允平,张承学,胡志坚.以GPS为基础的线路参数带电测量.电力系统自动化,1998,22(6)：43-45.
[78]周长春,徐政.直流输电准稳念模型有效性的仿真验证.中国电机工程学报,2003,23(12)：33-36.
[79]贺仁睦.电力系统动态仿真准确度的探究.电网技术,2000,24(12)：1-4..
[80]贺仁睦.电力系统稳定问题研究的方法论.电力系统自动化,1998,22(9)：9-12.
[81]贺仁睦.电网动态实时监控及管理系统的构想.,电力系统自动化,2002,26(10)：1-5.
[82]周成,贺仁睦,王吉利等.电力系统元件模型仿真准确度评估.电网技术,2009,33(14)：12-16.
[83]Ian A. Hiskens, Magnus Akke. Analysis of the Nordel Power Grid Disturbance of January 1,1997 Using Trajectory Sensitivities. IEEE transactions on Power systems, 1999,14(3):987-994.
[84]马进,盛文进,贺仁睦等.基于广域测量系统的电力系统动态仿真验证策略.电力系统自动化,2007,31(18)：11-16.
[85]博薄,马进.基于变阻抗方法的电力系统混合仿真验证策略.电力系统自动化,2009,33(6)：6-10.
[86]吴荻,辛焕海,甘德强.电力系统动态仿真中参数不确定性影响的评估.电力系统自动化,2008,32(05)：15-19.
[87]韩冬,马进,贺仁睦等.负荷模型不确定性对电力系统动态仿真的影响.中国电机工程学报,2008,28(19)：71-76.
[88]James R. Hockenberry, Bernard C. Lesieutre. Evaluation of Uncertainty in Dynamic Simulations of Power System Models:The Probabilistic Collocation Method. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems,2004,19(3):1483-1491.
[89]韩冬,贺仁睦,马进,黄晓静.基于随机响应面法的动态仿真不确定性分析.电力系统自动化,2008,32(20)：11-14.
[90]王守相,郑志杰,王成山.计及不确定性的电力系统时域仿真的区间算法.中国电机工程学报,2007,27(7)：40-44.
[91]兰秋军.金融时间序列隐含模式挖掘方法及其应用的研究.长沙：湖南大学博士学位论文,2004.
[92]王达,荣冈.时间序列的模式距离.浙江大学学报(工学版),2004,38(7)：795-798.
[93]曾凡仔,岳建海,裘正定.基于形状的时间序列相似性度量及模式发现算法.信号处理,2004,20(6)：548-551.
[94]翁颖钧,朱仲英.基于分段线性动态时间弯曲的时间序列聚类算法研究.微型电脑应用,2003,19(9)：19-22.
[95]Berndt D, Clifford J. Using Dynamic Time Warping to find patterns in time series. AAAI-94 workshop on Knowledge Discovery in databases(KKD'94), Seattle, Washington, July 1994:359-370.
[96]张海勤,蔡庆生.基于小波变换的时间序列相似模式匹配.计算机学报,2003,26(3)：373-377.
[97]毛云建,杜秀华.基于形态特征的时间序列相似性搜索算法.计算机仿真,2008,25(1)：80-83.
[98]Peng C, Wang H, Zhang S.R. Landmark:A New Model for Similarity based Pattern Querying in Time Series Database. Proceedings of 16th IEEE int'l Conference, Feb, 2000,675-693.
[99]Agrawal R, Imlinski T. A Fast Algorithm for Association Rules between Sets of Item in Large Database. Proceedings of the 1993 ACM SIGMOD Int'l Conference on Management of Data, Washington, USA, May 1993:207-216.
[100]Rake Agrawal, King-lp Lin, Harpreet S. Sawhney, Kyuseok Shim. Fast Similarity Search in the Presence of Noise, Scaling, and Translation in Time-Series Databases. Proceedings of the 21st VLDB Conference, Ziiricb, Switzerland,1995.
[2]杨德先,陈德树,陈卫,吴彤.特高压交流输电系统的动态物理模型.电力系统自动化,2008,32(22)：36-40.
[3]赵良,郭强,覃琴,张克,张文朝.特高压同步电网稳定特性分析.中国电机工程学报,2008,28(34)：47-51.
[4]舒印彪,张文亮.特高压同步电网安全性评估.中国电机工程学报,2008,27(33)：1-6.
[5]孙元章,杨军,张晓东,彭晓涛,刘焱.电力系统动态仿真中的继电保护模型.电力系统自动化,2009,33(20)：47-51.
[6]韩冬.大区电网实测负荷建模及仿真验证的研究.北京：华北电力大学博士学位论文,2009.
[7]李颖,贺仁睦.负荷与PSS相互作用对系统动态稳定的影响.电力系统自动化,2004,28(8)：40-44.
[8]周成,贺仁睦.模型结构对负荷模型泛化能力的影响.电力系统自动化,2008,32(14)：1-6.
[9]高松,贺仁睦,马进,张进.电力系统动态仿真误差评定准则研究.电力系统自动化,2006,30(4)：6-10.
[10]Han Dong,He Renmu. Power System Dynamic Simulation Validation Based on Similarity Theory and Analytical Hierarchy Process. Proceedings of 2006 International Conference on Power System Technology, Chongqing, China, Nov 4-9, 2006.
[11]张进.电力系统动态仿真可信度研究.北京：华北电力大学(北京)博士学位论文,2005.
[12]李鹏波,张金槐.仿真可信度研究综述.计算机仿真,2000,17(4)：12-14.
[13]王子才，张冰,杨明.仿真系统的校核、验证与验收(VV&A)：现状与未来.系统仿真学报,1999,11(5)：321—325.
[14]Fang Ke, Yang Ming, Wang Zi-cai. A VV&A evaluation system based on hierarchical evaluation. Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology (New Series),2005,12(2): 184-188.
[15]San Ye, Chen Jian-ming. VV&A and confidence assessment of a complex giant system simulation model. Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology (New Series), 2004,11(5):469-473.
[16]Guobing Sun, Ming Yang, Songyan Wang. Study on Credibility Evaluation Indexes of Synthetic Natural Environment Conceptual Model in Simulation Systems. Proceedings of the Systems and Control in Aerospace and Astronautics 2006, Harbin, China,2006:265-266.
[17]Yaxin Tan, Jingye Wang, Wei Zhang. Discussion on Credibility Theory of Simulation Application. Proceedings of System Simulation and Scientific Computing 2008, Beijing, China,2008:368-374.
[18]William L, Oberkampf, Timothy G Trucano. Verification and validation benchmarks. Nuclear Engineering and Design,2008,23 (8):716-743.
[19]Osman Balci. How to Assess the Acceptability and Credibility of Simulation Resulsts. The 1989 winter Simulation Conference.1989, Dec4-6, Washington, D.C.
[20]Osman Balci. Principles and Techniques of Simulation Validation, Verification and Testing. The 1995 Winter Simulation Conference.1995, Dec 3-6, Piscataway, NJ, 1995.
[21]Osman Balci. Verification Validation and Certification of Modeling and Simulation Applications. The 2003 Winter Simulation Conference.2003, Dec 7-10, New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.
[22]Osman Balci, Said D.Saadi. Proposed Standard Processes for Certification of Modeling and Simulation Applications. The 2002 winter simulation Conference.2002, Dec 8-11,San Diego California
[23]Osman Balci. Quality Assessment, Verification and Validation of Modeling and Simulation Applications. The 2004 winter simulation Conference.2004, Dec5-8, Washington, D.C.
[24]吴晓燕,许素红,刘兴堂.仿真系统VV&A标准／规范研究的现状与军事需求分析.系统仿真技术,2003,15(8)：1081-1084.
[25]许素红,吴晓燕.建模与仿真VV&A相关概念、定义和术语研究.计算机仿真,2004,21(2)：50-52.
[26]唐见兵,查亚兵,李革.仿真VV&A研究综述.计算机仿真,2006,23(11)：82-85.
[27]王曙钊,刘兴堂,吴晓燕,田新华.关于VV&A基层指标度量模型的研究.系统仿真学报,2008,19(19)：4367-4370.
[28]Jun-tao Wang,, Fei-yan Min. Knowledge Elicitation and Acquisition for Simulation Validation. International Conference on Computational Intelligence and Security Workshops 2007.2007, Dec 15-19, Harbin, China.
[29]孙成松,花传杰,李永.关于仿真可信度评估及仿真VV&A的探讨.计算机仿真,,2005,22(5)：74-77.
[30]刘晓平,郑利平,路强,李琳.仿真VV&A标准和规范研究现状及分析.系统仿真学报,2007,19(2)：456-460.
[31]吴立人.仿真模型有效性定量确认方法.导弹与航天运载技术,2000,(4)：23-26.
[32]李庆民,刘君,张志华.武器系统仿真模型的可信性验证方法研究.系统仿真学报,2006,18(2)：3380-3382.
[33]王海涛,朱根才,贲德,石燕.射频仿真系统的误差分析与可信度评估研究.系统仿真学报,2007,19(7)：1548-1550.
[34]查亚兵.结果验证的频谱比较方法.系统仿真学报,1997,9(3)：22—26.
[35]李鹏波,谢红卫.现代谱估计方法在仿真可信性研究中的应用.计算机仿真,1999,16(1)：45-48.
[36]刘鹏,陈长兴,王革命等.基于谱估计法的仿真系统模型检验.信号处理,2001,17(4)：378-381.
[37]李鹏波,高霞.应用最大熵谱估计进行导弹系统的仿真模型验证.国防科技大学学报,1999,21(2)：9-12.
[38]魏华梁,刘藻珍.交叉谱估计及其在导弹系统仿真模型验证中的应用.系统仿真学报,1997,9(3)：116-120.
[39]李鹏波,谢红卫.应用瞬时谱估计方法验证近炸引信的数字仿真模型.国防科技大学学报,1998,20(1)：47-50.
[40]柳世考,刘兴堂,李军.利用相似理论进行仿真系统模型验证.计算机仿真,2001,18(6)：1-3.
[41]郭巍,李云芝,姜振东.用相似理论讨论仿真的可信度.系统仿真学报,1999,10(2)：113-116.
[42]柳世考,刘兴堂,张文.利用相似度对仿真系统可信度进行定量评估.系统仿真学报,2003,14(2)：143-145.
[43]焦鹏,唐建兵,查亚兵.仿真可信度评估中相似度方法的改进及其应用.系统仿真学报,2007,19(12)：2658-2660.
[44]焦鹏,查亚兵.层次分析法在制导仿真系统可信度评估中的应用.计算机仿真,2005,22(9)：68-72.
[45]杨惠珍,康凤举,李俊.基于模糊AHP的系统仿真可信度评估方法.计算机仿真,20(8)：43-46.
[46]冉承新,凌云翔.AHP-Fuzzy在仿真系统可信度综合评价中的应用.计算机仿真,2005,22(8)：59—61.
[47]柳世考,刘兴堂.一种有效评估大型复杂仿真系统可信度的新方法.系统仿真学报,2001,13(5)：666-669.
[48]张伟,王行仁.仿真可信度模糊评判.系统仿真学报,2001,13(4)：473-475.
[49]孙勇成,周献中,江金龙,李桂芳.基于灰色聚类法的仿真系统可信度分析.计算机仿真,2005,22(10)：94-96.
[50]王立国,薛青,孟宪权,李平.用粗糙集理论探讨仿真的可信度.计算机应用研究,2008,25(6)：1690—1697.
[51]赵敏荣,高鹏,惠剑.大型复杂仿真系统模型验证的有效途径.航空计算技术,2003,33(2)：15-17.
[52]闫怀志,胡昌镇,张百海.机电系统动力学数字仿真可信性研究与应用.探测与控制学报,2003,25(1)：37-41.
[53]Schaeffer, C. Summary of the SERC generator modeling validation task force (GMVTF)'s on-going development of a SERC supplement to NERC planning standard II.B. (system modeling data requirements-generation equipment). IEEE Power Engineering Society General Meeting,2003, Volume:3, July 13-17:1323-1325.
[54]WECC Modeling and Validation Work Group Generator Certification Criteria. 1999,10.
[55]鞠平,倪腊琴,韩敬东.同步发电机参数辨识的模拟进化方法.电工技术学报,1999,14(5)：1-4.
[56]苏小林,周双喜.Prony法在同步发电机参数辨识中应用.电力自动化设备,2006,26(9)：1-4.
[57]Chiang-Tsung Huang, Hsiao-Dong Chiang. On-line Measurement-Based Model Parameter Estimation For Synchronous Generators:Model Development & Identification Schemes. IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion,1994,9(2): 330-336.
[58]赵争鸣,郑逢时,黄英矩,蒋建民,李伟清等.大型同步发电机参数在线辨识系统校验与分析.清华大学学报(自然科学版),1998,38(9)：14-16.
[59]Louis N. Hannett, James W. Feltes. Testing and model Validation for combined-cycle power plants. IEEE Power Engineering Society Winter Meeting,2001,Jan 28-31,Columbus, OH, USA.
[60]M. Martinsa, A. Perdanaa, P. Ledesmab, E. Agneholma, O. Carlsona. Validation of fixed speed wind turbine dynamic models with measured data. Renewable Power, 2007, (32):1301-1316.
[61]Gord Haines, Joel Barton. A Generation Utilities'Experience with Generator Stability Model Validation Testing. IEEE Power Engineering Society General Meeting, 2003,2003,July 13-17, Toronto, Canada.
[62]Rasheek M. Rifaat. Independent Power Producers (IPP) Perspectives and Experiences with WSCC Requirements for Generator Model Validation Tests. IEEE Industry Applications Conference,2000, Oct 08-Oct 12, Rome, Italy.
[63]Z. Huang, R. Guttromson, J. Hauer. Large-Scale Hybrid Dynamic Simulation Employing Field Measurements. Proceedings of the IEEE PES General Meeting, Denver, USA:IEEE Power Energy Society, June 2004.
[64]Zhengyu Huang,Dmitry Kosterev,Ross T. Guttromson,Tony Nguyen. Model Validation with Hybrid Dynamic Simulation. Proceedings of the IEEE PES General Meeting, Montreal, Canada:IEEE Power Energy Society, June 20055.
[65]贺仁睦,沈峰.发电机励磁系统建模与参数辨识综述.电网技术,2007,31(14)：62-67.
[66]IEEE Power Engineering Society.421.4TM IEEE Guide for the Preparation of Excitation System Specifications. USA,2004.
[67]潘炜,刘文颖,李杨楠,杨以涵等.采用实测励磁系统参数提高西北电网输送能力的研究.电网技术,2008,32(11)：34-39.
[68]马进,王景钢,贺仁睦.电力系统动态仿真的灵敏度分析.电力系统自动化,2005,29(17)：20-27.
[69]武诚,徐政,潘武略,张静.原动机与调速器建模和参数辨识的新进展.电网技术,2007,31(6)：179-182.
[70]Shawn Patterson, Dmitry Kosterev, Donald Davies. New Thermal Governor Model Selection and Validation in the WECC IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2004, 19(1),517-523.
[71]朱方,汤涌,张东霞等.发电机励磁和调速器模型参数对东北电网大扰动试验仿真计算的影响.电网技术,2007,31(4)：69-74.
[72]石景海,贺仁睦.动态负荷建模中的负荷时变性研究.中国电机工程学报,2004,24(4)：67-72.
[73]石景海.考虑负荷时变性的大区电网负荷建模研究.北京：华北电力大学博士学位论文,2005.
[74]贺仁睦,徐衍会,马进,韩冬.人工三相短路试验数据验证的负荷实测建模方法.电网技术,2007,31(4)：59-64.
[75]马进,贺仁睦,王景钢等.综合负荷模型参数的简化辨识策略.电网技术,2006,30(9)：28-34.
[76]Ma Jin, Han Dong, He Renmu, et al. Reducing Identified Parameters of Measurement-Based Composite Load Model. IEEE Transactions. on Power Systems, 2008,23(1):76-83.
[77]陈允平,张承学,胡志坚.以GPS为基础的线路参数带电测量.电力系统自动化,1998,22(6)：43-45.
[78]周长春,徐政.直流输电准稳念模型有效性的仿真验证.中国电机工程学报,2003,23(12)：33-36.
[79]贺仁睦.电力系统动态仿真准确度的探究.电网技术,2000,24(12)：1-4..
[80]贺仁睦.电力系统稳定问题研究的方法论.电力系统自动化,1998,22(9)：9-12.
[81]贺仁睦.电网动态实时监控及管理系统的构想.,电力系统自动化,2002,26(10)：1-5.
[82]周成,贺仁睦,王吉利等.电力系统元件模型仿真准确度评估.电网技术,2009,33(14)：12-16.
[83]Ian A. Hiskens, Magnus Akke. Analysis of the Nordel Power Grid Disturbance of January 1,1997 Using Trajectory Sensitivities. IEEE transactions on Power systems, 1999,14(3):987-994.
[84]马进,盛文进,贺仁睦等.基于广域测量系统的电力系统动态仿真验证策略.电力系统自动化,2007,31(18)：11-16.
[85]博薄,马进.基于变阻抗方法的电力系统混合仿真验证策略.电力系统自动化,2009,33(6)：6-10.
[86]吴荻,辛焕海,甘德强.电力系统动态仿真中参数不确定性影响的评估.电力系统自动化,2008,32(05)：15-19.
[87]韩冬,马进,贺仁睦等.负荷模型不确定性对电力系统动态仿真的影响.中国电机工程学报,2008,28(19)：71-76.
[88]James R. Hockenberry, Bernard C. Lesieutre. Evaluation of Uncertainty in Dynamic Simulations of Power System Models:The Probabilistic Collocation Method. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems,2004,19(3):1483-1491.
[89]韩冬,贺仁睦,马进,黄晓静.基于随机响应面法的动态仿真不确定性分析.电力系统自动化,2008,32(20)：11-14.
[90]王守相,郑志杰,王成山.计及不确定性的电力系统时域仿真的区间算法.中国电机工程学报,2007,27(7)：40-44.
[91]兰秋军.金融时间序列隐含模式挖掘方法及其应用的研究.长沙：湖南大学博士学位论文,2004.
[92]王达,荣冈.时间序列的模式距离.浙江大学学报(工学版),2004,38(7)：795-798.
[93]曾凡仔,岳建海,裘正定.基于形状的时间序列相似性度量及模式发现算法.信号处理,2004,20(6)：548-551.
[94]翁颖钧,朱仲英.基于分段线性动态时间弯曲的时间序列聚类算法研究.微型电脑应用,2003,19(9)：19-22.
[95]Berndt D, Clifford J. Using Dynamic Time Warping to find patterns in time series. AAAI-94 workshop on Knowledge Discovery in databases(KKD'94), Seattle, Washington, July 1994:359-370.
[96]张海勤,蔡庆生.基于小波变换的时间序列相似模式匹配.计算机学报,2003,26(3)：373-377.
[97]毛云建,杜秀华.基于形态特征的时间序列相似性搜索算法.计算机仿真,2008,25(1)：80-83.
[98]Peng C, Wang H, Zhang S.R. Landmark:A New Model for Similarity based Pattern Querying in Time Series Database. Proceedings of 16th IEEE int'l Conference, Feb, 2000,675-693.
[99]Agrawal R, Imlinski T. A Fast Algorithm for Association Rules between Sets of Item in Large Database. Proceedings of the 1993 ACM SIGMOD Int'l Conference on Management of Data, Washington, USA, May 1993:207-216.
[100]Rake Agrawal, King-lp Lin, Harpreet S. Sawhney, Kyuseok Shim. Fast Similarity Search in the Presence of Noise, Scaling, and Translation in Time-Series Databases. Proceedings of the 21st VLDB Conference, Ziiricb, Switzerland,1995.