中国工业出口贸易的环境效应研究
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摘要
随着中国改革开放步伐的加快,国民经济取得了令世界瞩目的成就。其中,对外贸易尤其是工业贸易的快速发展,为中国经济的迅猛增长提供了重要动力。伴随着国民经济和对外贸易的不断发展,贸易的环境影响日益得到广泛关注。国内外很多理论研究表明：对发展中国家而言,贸易增长通常伴随着更为严重的环境问题,贸易增长使得该发展中国家的生产向污染密集型的产品或者行业集聚。表面上看,中国迅速的贸易增长和日益严重的环境问题似乎也不例外。但是中国贸易的快速增长是基于全球生产网络背景下,中国参与国际分工的必然结果。若中国贸易在参与国际分工的过程中,生产集中在更为清洁的产品,或者更为清洁的生产阶段,对于中国而言,上述结论将不再适用。
本文运用2000-2009年中国工业水污染和空气污染方面的相关环境数据及贸易数据,通过规范分析,发现以下结论：(1)污染总量上,随着工业生产规模的不断扩大,选取污染指标的排放总量呈现不断上升的趋势；(2)从效率上看,选取污染指标的污染密度呈现不断下降的趋势。研究表明：中国工业贸易自由化的过程中,规模效应推动选取污染指标污染排放量的上升,结构效应与技术效应共同推动选取污染指标污染密度的下降。
结合1994年Copeland和Tailor的关于贸易环境的模型,引入各行业加工贸易占比等因素对模型加以拓展。利用2000-2009年中国20个主要工业行业的数据进行面板分析,找出影响上述两种趋势的经济因素,从而了解我国环境问题的原因所在,结合中国贸易的特点分析我国工业贸易环境作用的特殊机制。发现生产规模在污染总量不断上升的趋势中起到重要作用,同时,各行业加工贸易占比,人均收入,以及产品竞争力等经济因素在中国工业出口贸易污染密度不断下降的趋势中扮演重要角色。
Along with the constant deepening of China's reform and opening to the world, China has achieved great economic results which have attracted worldwide attention.Trade growth for a relatively poor country is thought to shift the composition of industrial output towards dirtier products, aggrabating environmental damage. China's rapidly growing trade and serious environmental degradation appear to be no exception. However, much of China's trade growth is attributale to the international fragmentation of production. This kind of trade could be cleaner, if fragmented production occurs in cleaner goods,or if China specializes in cleaner stages of production within these goods. Using Chinese official environmental data on air and water pollution, and official trade data, we present evidence that the industrial emissions are growing, at the same time the pollution intensity has fallen dramatically between 2000 and 2009. We then explore the role of fragmentation in this trend toward cleaner trade. Beginning with a standard model of pollution intensity of trade, we then estimate this model that explicitly introduces production fragmentation into export sector. We then estimate this model using pooled data on five pollutants over ten years. Econometric results support the view that increased production fragmentation have contributed positively to the decline in the pollution intensity of China's trade.
本文运用2000-2009年中国工业水污染和空气污染方面的相关环境数据及贸易数据,通过规范分析,发现以下结论：(1)污染总量上,随着工业生产规模的不断扩大,选取污染指标的排放总量呈现不断上升的趋势；(2)从效率上看,选取污染指标的污染密度呈现不断下降的趋势。研究表明：中国工业贸易自由化的过程中,规模效应推动选取污染指标污染排放量的上升,结构效应与技术效应共同推动选取污染指标污染密度的下降。
结合1994年Copeland和Tailor的关于贸易环境的模型,引入各行业加工贸易占比等因素对模型加以拓展。利用2000-2009年中国20个主要工业行业的数据进行面板分析,找出影响上述两种趋势的经济因素,从而了解我国环境问题的原因所在,结合中国贸易的特点分析我国工业贸易环境作用的特殊机制。发现生产规模在污染总量不断上升的趋势中起到重要作用,同时,各行业加工贸易占比,人均收入,以及产品竞争力等经济因素在中国工业出口贸易污染密度不断下降的趋势中扮演重要角色。
Along with the constant deepening of China's reform and opening to the world, China has achieved great economic results which have attracted worldwide attention.Trade growth for a relatively poor country is thought to shift the composition of industrial output towards dirtier products, aggrabating environmental damage. China's rapidly growing trade and serious environmental degradation appear to be no exception. However, much of China's trade growth is attributale to the international fragmentation of production. This kind of trade could be cleaner, if fragmented production occurs in cleaner goods,or if China specializes in cleaner stages of production within these goods. Using Chinese official environmental data on air and water pollution, and official trade data, we present evidence that the industrial emissions are growing, at the same time the pollution intensity has fallen dramatically between 2000 and 2009. We then explore the role of fragmentation in this trend toward cleaner trade. Beginning with a standard model of pollution intensity of trade, we then estimate this model that explicitly introduces production fragmentation into export sector. We then estimate this model using pooled data on five pollutants over ten years. Econometric results support the view that increased production fragmentation have contributed positively to the decline in the pollution intensity of China's trade.
引文
[1]党玉婷、万能,贸易对环境影响的实证分析一以中国制造业为例[J],世界经济研究,2007(4)： 52-57
[2]沈荣珊、任荣明,贸易自由化环境效应的实证研究[J],国际贸易问题,2006(7)：66-70
[3]李春生,广州市环境库兹涅茨曲线分析[J]，生态经济,2006(8)：50-52
[4]许士春,贸易对我国环境影响的实证分析[J],世界经济研究,2006(3)：63-68
[5]张梅,广东出口贸易对环境影响的实证分析[J],国际贸易问题,2006(4)：107-110
[6]李秀香、张婷,出口增长对我国环境影响的实证分析[J],国际贸易问题,2004(7)：9-12
[7]彭海珍,关于贸易自由化对中国影响的分析[J],财贸经济,2006(4)：35-41
[8]张连众,贸易自由化对我国环境污染的影响分析[J],南开经济研究,2003(3)：3-5
[9]夏友富,论国际贸易与环境保护[J],世界经济,1996(7)：38-43
[10]陆菁,贸易与环境经济分析的实证研究评述[J],浙江社会科学,2006(2)：203-209
[11]陈丽丽,贸易与环境可持续发展的经济学分析[J],国际贸易问题,2004(10)：84-87.
[12]谢姚刚,理性看待污染密集产业转移[J],国际贸易问题,2004(11)：63-65.
[13]宋春峰、耿献辉,环境与贸易自由化的冲突及解决[J],环境与贸易,2003(8)：57-60.
[14]陈刚,FDI竞争、环境规制与污染避难所[J],世界经济研究,2009(6)：3-7
[15]傅京燕,产业特征、环境规制与大气污染排放的实证研究—以广东省制造业为例[J],中国人口·资源与环境,2009(2)：73-77
[16]黄德春、刘志彪,环境规制与企业自主创新—基于波特假设的企业竞争优势构建[J],中国工业经济,2006(3)：100-106
[17]黄小迪,对我国清洁发展机制实施的反思与应对—后京都时代的建议[J],中山大学研究生学刊(社会科学版),2009(2)：84-94
[18]李斌、汤铸、陈开军,贸易自由化对环境污染影响的实证分析[J],商业研究,2006(10)：112-115
[19]李红利,中国地方政府环境规制的难题及对策机制分析[D],上海华东师范大学博士学位论文,2008
[20]陆杨,环境规制影响了污染密集型商品的贸易比较优势吗[J].,经济研究,2009(4)：28-40
[21]王传宝、刘林奇,我国环境管制出口效应的实证研究[J],国际贸易问题,2009(6)：83-90
[22]王军,理解污染避难所假说[J]，世界经济研究,2008(1)：59-65
[23]王寿兵,中国工业系统各行业综合污染度评价方法与实例[J],中国人口·资源与环境,2008(6)：127-131
[24]于峰,开放经济下环境污染的分解分析[J],统计研究,2007(1)：47-53
[25]朱允卫,论环境规制下的国际分工与国际贸易[J],国际经贸探索,2002(5)：9-12,76
[26]肖德、张颖,环境保护与贸易自由化[J],国际贸易问题1997(5)：37-39
[27]曲如晓,环境外部性与国际贸易福利效应[J],国际经贸探索,2002(1)：11-14
[28]蒋勇、左玉辉,关于贸易与环境关系的几点认识及其对我国的启示[J],城市环境与城市生态,2000(2)：36-38
[29]潘家华,环境成本内部化与南北贸易[J],世界经济,1996(8)：41-43
[30]金祥荣、沈光明,绿色贸易措施的政治博弈[J],国际贸易问题,2005(3)：59-63
[31]金祥荣、林承亮,中国历次关税调整及其有效保护结构的实证研究[J],世界经济,1999(08)28-34
[32]金祥荣、陆著,现行绿色贸易制度的形成与缺陷[J],外贸经济,1999(2)：48-53
[33]Antweiler W., B.R.Copeland, and M.S. Taylor, Is Free Trade Good for the Environment? [J], American Economics Review,91(4),2001:877-908
[34]Becker, Randy and Vernon Henderson, Effects of Air Quality Regulation on Polluting Industries[J], Journal of Political Economy,108(2)2000:379-421
[35]Beghin John, Environment and Trade in Developing Economies, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University, working paper 2000-wp 247
[36]Brander, James and Taylor Scott, Open Access Renewable Resources:Trade and Trade Policies in a Two-country Model[J], Journal of International Economics,44(2)1998:181-209
[37]Chichilnisky Graeiela, North-South trade and the global environment[J], American Economic Review, Vol.84 1994:851-874
[38]Cole M.A., Rayner A.J., Bates J.M. Trade liberalization and the environment:the case of the Uruguay Round [J], World Economics,21(3)1998:337-347
[39]Conrad, K, Taxes and Subsidies for Pollution-Intensive industries as Trade Policy[J], Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,1993(25):121-135
[40]Copeland Brian R., International trade and the environment:Policy reform in a polluted small open economy [J], Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,1994(26):44-65
[41]Copeland Brian R.,Taylor M. Scott. Trade and transboundary pollution [J], American Economic Review,Vol.84 1994:716-737
[42]Copeland Brian R.,Taylor M. Scott. Trade and the Environment:A Partial Synthesis [J], American Journal of Agricultural Economics,1995(77):765-771
[43]Copeland Brian R.,Pollution Content Tariffs, Environmental Rent Shifting and the Control of Cross-Border Pollution[J], Journal of International Economics,40(3-4) 1996:459-476
[44]Copeland Brian R., Taylor M. Scott, The Trade-Included Degradation Hypothesis [J], Resource and Energy Economics,19(4)1997:321-344
[45]Copeland Brian R., Taylor M. Scott, Trade and The Environment:Theory and Evidence [M] Princeton:Princeton University Press 2003
[46]Grossman G.M., Krueger A.B. Economic growth and the environment [J], Quarterly Journal of Economics CX (2),1995:353-379
[47]Grossman G.M., Krueger A.B. Environmental Impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement, Working paper No.3914,1991
[48]Krueger A.O., Trade policy and economic development:how we learn [J], American Economics Review,87(1),1997:1-22
[49]Hettige H., Lucas R.E.B., Wheeler D., The toxic intensity of industrial production:global patterns, trends, and trade policy [J], American Economics Review,82(2),1992:478-481
[50]Hettige H., Mani M., Wheeler D., Industrial Pollution in economic development:Kuznets revisited, World Bank, Policy Research Department Working Paper, World Bank,1997
[51]Damania, Richard, Trade liberalization, corruption, and the environmental policy formation: theory and evidence [J], Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, (3) 2003:490-512
[52]Markusen James R., International Externalities and Optimal Tax Structures [J], Journal of International Economics, Vol.5 1975:15-29
[53]Markusen James R., Costly pollution abatement, competitiveness and plant location decisions [J], Resource Energy Econ,1997(19):299-320
[54]Markusen James R., Multinational Firms and the New Trade Theory [J], Journal of International Economics,46 (2)1998; 183-203
[55]Siebert H., Environmental Quality and the Gains from Trade [J], Kyklos 30(4) 1977:657-673
[56]Stern David, Economic growth and environmental degradation:the environmental Kuznets curve and sustainable development [J], World Development,24(7),1996:1151-1160
[2]沈荣珊、任荣明,贸易自由化环境效应的实证研究[J],国际贸易问题,2006(7)：66-70
[3]李春生,广州市环境库兹涅茨曲线分析[J]，生态经济,2006(8)：50-52
[4]许士春,贸易对我国环境影响的实证分析[J],世界经济研究,2006(3)：63-68
[5]张梅,广东出口贸易对环境影响的实证分析[J],国际贸易问题,2006(4)：107-110
[6]李秀香、张婷,出口增长对我国环境影响的实证分析[J],国际贸易问题,2004(7)：9-12
[7]彭海珍,关于贸易自由化对中国影响的分析[J],财贸经济,2006(4)：35-41
[8]张连众,贸易自由化对我国环境污染的影响分析[J],南开经济研究,2003(3)：3-5
[9]夏友富,论国际贸易与环境保护[J],世界经济,1996(7)：38-43
[10]陆菁,贸易与环境经济分析的实证研究评述[J],浙江社会科学,2006(2)：203-209
[11]陈丽丽,贸易与环境可持续发展的经济学分析[J],国际贸易问题,2004(10)：84-87.
[12]谢姚刚,理性看待污染密集产业转移[J],国际贸易问题,2004(11)：63-65.
[13]宋春峰、耿献辉,环境与贸易自由化的冲突及解决[J],环境与贸易,2003(8)：57-60.
[14]陈刚,FDI竞争、环境规制与污染避难所[J],世界经济研究,2009(6)：3-7
[15]傅京燕,产业特征、环境规制与大气污染排放的实证研究—以广东省制造业为例[J],中国人口·资源与环境,2009(2)：73-77
[16]黄德春、刘志彪,环境规制与企业自主创新—基于波特假设的企业竞争优势构建[J],中国工业经济,2006(3)：100-106
[17]黄小迪,对我国清洁发展机制实施的反思与应对—后京都时代的建议[J],中山大学研究生学刊(社会科学版),2009(2)：84-94
[18]李斌、汤铸、陈开军,贸易自由化对环境污染影响的实证分析[J],商业研究,2006(10)：112-115
[19]李红利,中国地方政府环境规制的难题及对策机制分析[D],上海华东师范大学博士学位论文,2008
[20]陆杨,环境规制影响了污染密集型商品的贸易比较优势吗[J].,经济研究,2009(4)：28-40
[21]王传宝、刘林奇,我国环境管制出口效应的实证研究[J],国际贸易问题,2009(6)：83-90
[22]王军,理解污染避难所假说[J]，世界经济研究,2008(1)：59-65
[23]王寿兵,中国工业系统各行业综合污染度评价方法与实例[J],中国人口·资源与环境,2008(6)：127-131
[24]于峰,开放经济下环境污染的分解分析[J],统计研究,2007(1)：47-53
[25]朱允卫,论环境规制下的国际分工与国际贸易[J],国际经贸探索,2002(5)：9-12,76
[26]肖德、张颖,环境保护与贸易自由化[J],国际贸易问题1997(5)：37-39
[27]曲如晓,环境外部性与国际贸易福利效应[J],国际经贸探索,2002(1)：11-14
[28]蒋勇、左玉辉,关于贸易与环境关系的几点认识及其对我国的启示[J],城市环境与城市生态,2000(2)：36-38
[29]潘家华,环境成本内部化与南北贸易[J],世界经济,1996(8)：41-43
[30]金祥荣、沈光明,绿色贸易措施的政治博弈[J],国际贸易问题,2005(3)：59-63
[31]金祥荣、林承亮,中国历次关税调整及其有效保护结构的实证研究[J],世界经济,1999(08)28-34
[32]金祥荣、陆著,现行绿色贸易制度的形成与缺陷[J],外贸经济,1999(2)：48-53
[33]Antweiler W., B.R.Copeland, and M.S. Taylor, Is Free Trade Good for the Environment? [J], American Economics Review,91(4),2001:877-908
[34]Becker, Randy and Vernon Henderson, Effects of Air Quality Regulation on Polluting Industries[J], Journal of Political Economy,108(2)2000:379-421
[35]Beghin John, Environment and Trade in Developing Economies, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University, working paper 2000-wp 247
[36]Brander, James and Taylor Scott, Open Access Renewable Resources:Trade and Trade Policies in a Two-country Model[J], Journal of International Economics,44(2)1998:181-209
[37]Chichilnisky Graeiela, North-South trade and the global environment[J], American Economic Review, Vol.84 1994:851-874
[38]Cole M.A., Rayner A.J., Bates J.M. Trade liberalization and the environment:the case of the Uruguay Round [J], World Economics,21(3)1998:337-347
[39]Conrad, K, Taxes and Subsidies for Pollution-Intensive industries as Trade Policy[J], Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,1993(25):121-135
[40]Copeland Brian R., International trade and the environment:Policy reform in a polluted small open economy [J], Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,1994(26):44-65
[41]Copeland Brian R.,Taylor M. Scott. Trade and transboundary pollution [J], American Economic Review,Vol.84 1994:716-737
[42]Copeland Brian R.,Taylor M. Scott. Trade and the Environment:A Partial Synthesis [J], American Journal of Agricultural Economics,1995(77):765-771
[43]Copeland Brian R.,Pollution Content Tariffs, Environmental Rent Shifting and the Control of Cross-Border Pollution[J], Journal of International Economics,40(3-4) 1996:459-476
[44]Copeland Brian R., Taylor M. Scott, The Trade-Included Degradation Hypothesis [J], Resource and Energy Economics,19(4)1997:321-344
[45]Copeland Brian R., Taylor M. Scott, Trade and The Environment:Theory and Evidence [M] Princeton:Princeton University Press 2003
[46]Grossman G.M., Krueger A.B. Economic growth and the environment [J], Quarterly Journal of Economics CX (2),1995:353-379
[47]Grossman G.M., Krueger A.B. Environmental Impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement, Working paper No.3914,1991
[48]Krueger A.O., Trade policy and economic development:how we learn [J], American Economics Review,87(1),1997:1-22
[49]Hettige H., Lucas R.E.B., Wheeler D., The toxic intensity of industrial production:global patterns, trends, and trade policy [J], American Economics Review,82(2),1992:478-481
[50]Hettige H., Mani M., Wheeler D., Industrial Pollution in economic development:Kuznets revisited, World Bank, Policy Research Department Working Paper, World Bank,1997
[51]Damania, Richard, Trade liberalization, corruption, and the environmental policy formation: theory and evidence [J], Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, (3) 2003:490-512
[52]Markusen James R., International Externalities and Optimal Tax Structures [J], Journal of International Economics, Vol.5 1975:15-29
[53]Markusen James R., Costly pollution abatement, competitiveness and plant location decisions [J], Resource Energy Econ,1997(19):299-320
[54]Markusen James R., Multinational Firms and the New Trade Theory [J], Journal of International Economics,46 (2)1998; 183-203
[55]Siebert H., Environmental Quality and the Gains from Trade [J], Kyklos 30(4) 1977:657-673
[56]Stern David, Economic growth and environmental degradation:the environmental Kuznets curve and sustainable development [J], World Development,24(7),1996:1151-1160