韩国汽车产业安全研究
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摘要
冷战时期,现实主义把国家安全上升到理论层次,形成了以政治安全、军事安全及领土完整为主要内容的传统国家安全观。但随着冷战结束以及经济全球化的扩展,传统安全观被非传统安全观替代,经济安全成为国家安全的核心内容。产业安全是构成经济安全的基础,是国家制定产业政策、实行经济干预最基本的出发点,因此,在一国经济中,其主导产业的安全状况,代表和反映着该国经济的安全状况。
     汽车产业是以高投入、高产出、长链条、集群式发展为特征的产业,它在生产、销售、研发、服务、信贷、保险等诸多方面,都能成为推动一国经济的力量,因此,汽车产业的发展程度往往会成为一国工业化水平高低的重要标志,也因为如此,一国一旦拥有汽车产业,往往就会成为该国支柱性产业。韩国是战后发展起来的新兴工业国,在整个工业化过程中,汽车产业对韩国经济发展起到了至关重要的作用。韩国汽车产业是20世纪60年代初在政府扶持下起步的,目前已经发展成为国内出口第一位,贸易额第一位,提供就业职位第一位以及产量排名世界第5位的自主性产业,在国民经济中占据着显赫地位。但随着经济全球化和国际环境的不断变化,韩国汽车产业中存在的不安全隐患突显出来,如其国内过于单一的汽车产业格局不利于企业间竞争;新世纪韩国外资开放政策使跨国公司控制韩国本国汽车企业的忧虑大幅增加;中国、印度等发展中国家汽车产业的崛起,使国际汽车市场竞争异常激烈;2008年爆发的国际金融危机影响世界汽车市场,有望形成新格局等等。
     本文旨在通过理论分析及定量分析方法相结合探讨韩国汽车产业安全状态,总结韩国保持有效维护产业安全的手段及路径,以便为中国汽车产业安全发展提供可借鉴的理论和实践经验。
     对于一国特定产业的安全状况,可从静态和动态两个方面进行观察。静态产业安全,表现为特定行为体自主产业的生存和发展不受威胁的状态;动态产业安全,表现为特定行为体自主产业的可持续发展能力和竞争力。一国特定产业的安全度,可通过判断该产业安全评价体系中的各指标来定量分析。产业安全评价指标包括国内生存环境指标、国际竞争力、对外依存度及外国资本控制力等,每个指标还进一步细分为二级指标或三级指标。
     本文较详细地分析了影响韩国汽车产业安全的产业国内生存环境、产业国际竞争力、产业对外依存度和外资控制力等指标,并发放120份专家调查问卷,收回84份作排序依据,进行AHP分析(层次分析)。在分析中通过建立实验模型,处理抽样数据,确立了汽车产业安全的一级函数和二级函数。
     在确立一级函数和二级函数的基础上,根据四大影响汽车产业安全的一、二级指标,从静态上得出目前韩国汽车产业安全处于“安全状态”的结论。而通过对影响因素优势丧失模拟的动态分析得出,在开放市场条件下,在变化莫测的国际竞争环境中,国际竞争力起到了关键作用。韩国政府及本国汽车企业为提升韩国汽车国际竞争力所做出的努力是形成目前汽车产业安全状态的有力保证。
     本文的研究并不止于单纯地对韩国汽车产业安全度进行实证评估,更重要的是通过实证评估得出的结论,进一步探索韩国汽车产业能够实现安全发展的路径,并在上述基础上对韩国汽车产业实现产业安全的模式进行了总结与探究。韩国汽车产业实现安全发展路径可概括为,政府对汽车产业的保护与培育路径;扩大内需与开拓国际市场并重的市场组织路径;注重技术的引进与创新,实现技术跨跃路径;提升国际竞争力,创造世界性自主品牌路径。上述路径表现出,韩国在实现汽车产业安全发展时,政府、企业及市场共同起作用的,相应地,本文以开放经济为假设前提,对韩国宏观、中观、微观三个层面的汽车产业安全模式进行了探索与总结。
     首先是宏观层面的政府与市场互动模式。韩国利用政府与市场的利弊关系,在实现汽车产业安全过程中,采取政府与市场互动模式,在对汽车产业进行有效保护、扶持的同时,充分发挥市场配置资源手段,调动竞争积极性,既鼓励产业内企业间的竞争,更是鼓励本国企业提升国际竞争力,在世界市场上与国外企业进行充分竞争。在政府与市场互动模式当中,政府与市场互动程度由产业发展状况来定。假如产业处在发展初期,即使是开放经济,也需要政府的扶持与保护多一些;要是处在成熟期,政府要多放手,让市场机制多发挥些作用。比如,目前全球瞩目的节能环保型汽车,因为处在起步培育阶段,就需要政府在其研究开发与普及方面多给予一些扶持及保护政策,而当节能环境型汽车产业技术成熟,形成规模时,就应放到竞争环境中与国际相关产业进行竞争,以保环保型汽车安全成长。
     其次是微观层面的企业自主创新提升国际竞争力模式。企业是构成产业的最基本单位,是一国产业安全的微观基础。一个产业的安全问题,归根到底就是产业中主要企业的安全问题。纵观韩国汽车产业,韩国汽车生产企业在政府与市场互动的宏观大环境下,成为了生产主体、技术创新及研发主体、营销主体和投入主体,不断通过自主创新提升国内国际竞争力。
     最后是中观层面的高度集中、集团化的产业组织模式。韩国汽车产业中观层面的高度集中和集团化的产业组织模式,早在国内市场开放之前就已形成。由于汽车产业对规模化与高投入的要求,这种高度集中的集团化模式促进了韩国汽车产业的安全发展,并将会影响未来的产业组织形态。正如迈克尔·波特指出那样,一个国家的经济体系中,有竞争力的产业通常不是均衡分布的。一个产业中,没有强大的产业集团,只有小规模的中小企业,那就难以形成专业化优势,而韩国正是利用了产业集团化的发展道路,使大企业集团承担了发展一国汽车产业的任务。
     上述从微、中、宏观层面的三种模式并不是孤立的,宏观层面的模式为企业与产业的发展提供生存大环境,企业与产业的生存大环境如何,决定企业的交易成本,影响产业发展运行状况;而微观的企业层面的模式,又往往是中观的产业层面模式的基础,企业的发展壮大,关系到产业的发展壮大,而整个产业的安全发展,有利于企业的持续发展;中观层面是联系宏观和微观层面的中介,政府在制定政策的时候,不是参考某个企业状况来定的,而是从中观的产业安全层面去考虑如何进行协调的。
     在探究韩国实现汽车产业安全模式基础上,本文对我国汽车产业安全发展提出了一些政策建议。即充分发挥政府的宏观调控作用,为自主汽车企业发展营造有序的市场环境;建立汽车产业自主创新体系,提高自主技术研发能力;实行自主品牌战略,树立自主品牌形象,提升品牌价值;战略重组与集约化发展并进,整顿“散、乱、小”,提升产业集中度;巩固国内市场,积极拓展国际市场。
In the period of previous globalization, realism raised the country’s safety to a hierarchy of theory, and formed the traditional safety viewpoint of which main content were politics safety, military safety and territorial integrity. After the end of the cold war, traditional viewpoint of safety replaced nontraditional viewpoint of safety, and economic security became the country’s core concept of safety. However, the industrial safety was the basis of economic security and the basic starting point for a country to work out industry policies and practical economic intervention. Hence, within the economy of a country, the safe condition of the leading industry is an important index which can affect this country’s economic security.
     The features of automobile industry are high devotion, high production, long value chain and colony settlement development. The production, marketing, research and development, service, credit, insurance and other aspects on automobile industry can become the strength of enhancing a country’s economy and the important sign of the industrialization level of a country. Hence, if a country have its own automobile industry, it will become the country’s pillar industry. Korea is a newly industrialized country after the cold war, and the automobile industry plays an important role on its economic development during the entire industrial process. Korean automobile industry started with the help of its government at 1960s, from the starting point of packaging the cars to now, and this industry has become No.1 in export, volume of trade and jobs provided, and its output has become the fifth in the world, and take an important position in national economy. But accompanied by continuous changes of economic globalization and international environment, the existing security risks of Korean automobile industry have appeared. For instance, too much unitary structure of Korean automobile industry makes it a disadvantageous position during the competition among industry. In the new century, Korean policies of setting out its stall for global retailers course the raising anxiety that international multinational corporate will control the domestic automobile industry. Also, the international competition of automobile industry will be very severely because some of the developing countries, such as China and India, have risen sharply. The international financial crisis happened in 2008 influenced the global automobile market, and a new structure will appear. Hence, analysis on the safety condition of Korean automobile industry, and the degree of safety conclusion by quantitative analysis, we can find out the effective methods and ways to maintain the industry safety, and the problems that should be noticed of during the maintaining process. These conclusions could provide some referential theories and practical experience for the development of Chinese automobile industry’s safety.
     Industrial safety can be observed from static and dynamic state. On aspect of static state, the industry security behaves as the status that the special behavioral mutant’s survival and development aren’t threatened and on dynamic, it behaves as the continually development and competition capability of special behavioral mutant’s independent industry. The degree of safety of a country’s specific industrial can be estimated by the quantitative analysis on the indexes in its evaluation system of industrial safety. These indexes include: domestic living environment, international competitive power, foreign degree of dependency and the control force of foreign capital and so on. Each target will be followed by second and third level target.
     This dissertation amply analyses the domestic living environment, industrial international competitive power and foreign degree of dependency and the control force of foreign capital of some industries which influence the automobile industrial safety, and establishes the first and second level function by adopting AHP analytic procedure (Analytic Hierarchy Process), and setting up the test model and processing sample data.
     On the basis of establishing the first and second degree function, according to the first and second degree function of four big targets that influence automobile industrial safety, this dissertation finds the conclusion from static that Korean automobile industrial security is safe now. Through the analysis on the simulation process of losing the superiority of influencing factor, we can get the conclusion from the dynamic that international competitiveness has played an important role in various international competition environment under the condition of opening the market. The great efforts that made by government and domestic automobile industry of Korea to raise the international competitiveness could help forming the condition of automobile industrial safety.
     The research of this dissertation is not only about the empirical estimate of Korean automobile industry safety degree, moreover, the important point is the conclusion that this dissertation find out through the process of the empirical estimate, this conclusion will be helpful to analysis on the methods that Korean automobile industry can adopt to develop its safety and explore the model of achieving its automobile industrial safety. The method of developing Korean automobile industry safety can be summarized as follow: the method of protection and nurture from the government, the market organizational method of expansion of domestic demand and exploration international market, emphasizing the importing and creating of technology, achieving the striding over of skill, raising the international competitiveness, creating the international proprietary brand. Form the above we can find that the Korean automobile industry emphasizes the function of its government, enterprises and market during the development process of its automobile industrial safety. Hence, this dissertation draws a conclusion on Korean automobile industrial safety model on the levels of macroscopic, the middle, and microcosmic under the condition of opening economy.
     The first is the interactive mode between government and market in macroscopic level. Using the relationship between advantages and disadvantages of government and market to achieve the process of automobile industrial safety, Korea adopts the model of the interactive mode between government and market, and changes the ways of protecting, supporting and conniving as usual, and gives full play to the means of market allocation of resources, and requires the competition among domestic enterprises, at the same time, and also requires these enterprises raising their international competitiveness and fully competes with international enterprises. The interactive degree between government and market within the interactive mode is decided by the development situation of industry. If the industry is in its infancy, it will need more protection and support even its policy is opening of economy; if the industry is in its mature period, the government should give the right to the industry, and let market mechanism do more work. The development of environment protective model automobile industry is being paid attention to by the global now, because this industry is in its infancy, the government should give it some protection and supporting policies according to its researching and popularizing; However, after this technology becomes mature and reaches its shape, the government will promote the industry into international competitive environment in order to pledge the safety of automobile industry. Secondly, the model is that the enterprises who are in the middle level should make independent innovation to raise the international competitiveness. Each enterprise is the elementary unit of the industry and the micro-foundation of one country’s industrial safety. The safety issue of an industry actually is the issue of the enterprises in this industry. Making a general observation to Korean automobile industry, its automobile enterprises become the main parts of production, technical innovation, research and development, marketing and investment, raising their domestic and international competitiveness. The last is the model of highly concentrated and aggregative industrial organization in middle range. The model of highly centralized and aggregative industrial organization in middle range has formed before the opening of marketing. This model promotes the safety development of Korean automobile industry because of the requirement of scale production and high capital, and will influence the industrial organizational form in the future. Just as Michael Porter said that the enterprises which have competitiveness will not be uniform distribution in a country’s economic system. His words means that it is difficult to form the specialization advantages without strong industrial group but only some small scale enterprises. However, Korea is doing the right thing, and utilising the developing way of industrial collectivize, and making the big enterprises take the responsibility of developing the automobile industry.
     The three models of the levels of macroscopic, the middle, and microcosmic mentioned above are not isolated. The level of macroscopic model supports large existing environment for enterprises and industries, this environment will decide the transaction costs, and influence the developing and operating situation of the industry. The microcosmic level of enterprises’model always will be the basis of the industrial level model, the development and strengthen of enterprises will relate to the development and strengthen of the industry, and the safely development of entire industry will encourage the continuously developing of enterprises. Among these three models, the middle model is the bridge between macroscopic and microcosmic. When the government wants to formulate a policy, it would not consult the situations of some certain enterprises but thinking about how to coordinate with the industrial safety level of the middle.
     On the basis of exploring Korean automobile industrial safety model, this dissertation gives some suggestions to Chinese development of automobile industrial safety. The suggestions are as these: fully using the macro-control of government, constructing an ordered marketing environment for the development of automobile enterprises, establishing a new self-reliant innovation system of motor vehicle, improving research and development of autonomous capacity, using the strategy of proprietary brand, setting up the brand image, raising the brand value, developing both of the strategic reorganization and intensification, reorganizing“scatter, mess and small,”promoting the affinity of industry, consolidating the domestic market, exploring international market actively.
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    [5]韩国银行网站: http://ecos.bok.or.kr
    [6]中国银行网站:http://www.pbc.gov.cn
    [7]中国汽车网站: http://www.chinacars.com/

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