基于景观结构的长株潭核心区土地利用生态风险调控研究
|
摘要
在快速城市化进程中,针对区域土地利用结构与功能的变化,如何有效调控土地利用生态风险,实现生态、经济、社会可持续发展是一个亟需解决的难题。本研究以长株潭核心区为研究对象,运用地理学、景观生态学、管理学、数学与计算机科学等多学科的方法与技术,依据研究区近20年来区域土地利用变化的尺度特征及生态风险作用驱动因子的分析,以景观结构及功能变化为切入点,对不合理的土地利用方式导致的土地利用结构变化及功能退化等引起的生态风险进行识别,构建基于景观生态学的风险评价指标体系和评价模型,开展不同尺度的土地利用生态风险评价,并以评价结果为依据,从调控目标、调控重点、调控尺度选择、调控行为决策与调控策略等方面提出如何有效实施土地利用生态风险调控。主要内容及结论如下：
1.土地利用变化特征尺度分析
根据长株潭核心区1989～2008年4期遥感影像数据资料,提取区域土地利用变化数据,以湘江样带为典型研究区,运用小波分析方法进行特征尺度检测。结果表明：长株潭核心区不同部位的特征尺度选择不是唯一的,长株潭城市群核心区土地利用变化具有多尺度敏感性,不同研究区域或研究部位的土地利用及景观格局变化对特征尺度选择有一定影响。不同土地利用及景观类型具有不同的尺度特征,城市边缘区的特征尺度值最小但景观敏感性最强,宜选择1980m左右的分析粒径；城市建成区特征尺度值最大,宜选择3300m左右的分析粒径,其景观敏感性最差。
2.土地利用生态风险驱动因子及作用机理分析
土地利用结构及功能变化是导致长株潭核心区土地利用生态风险的主要原因。在分析土地利用变化社会驱动因子作用的基础上,研究景观结构特征及格局变化的生态学特征,开展景观敏感性分析及生态系统服务价值评估,以更好的把握生态风险驱动因子作用的方式及过程。研究表明,社会经济因子是长株潭核心区土地利用生态风险作用的主导驱动因子,建设用地变化与GDP变化具有一致性；耕地与草地的景观敏感性最强,其次是林地和水域,建设用地及未利用地的景观敏感性最差。
3.土地利用生态风险评价及特征分析
根据对研究区土地利用变化及生态风险驱动因子作用的分析,结合景观生态系统服务功能价值,建立基于“源”与“汇”景观结构的土地利用生态风险评价指标体系及评价模型。结果表明,城市建成区土地利用生态风险高于其他区域,长沙市区整体风险值最高,较高风险及高风险区分布最广,湘潭次之,株洲市区整体土地利用生态风险最低。长株潭核心区土地利用生态风险均表现出即由一般风险区向中风险区,或者是由一般风险区向较高风险区发展的过渡性特点,低风险分布区域呈现零散分布,区域土地利用生态风险调控的压力较大。评价单元大小对评价结果的准确性有一定的影响,比较10km×10km及2km×2km粒径两种评价单元的分析结果,后者是更适合的城市群土地利用生态风险评价单元。
4.土地利用生态风险调控
结合对土地利用生态风险因子作用分析,以生态风险评价结果及风险指数变化规律为依据,确定不同变化情景的风险调控目标与调控重点,探讨土地利用生态风险的最佳时间、空间及功能调控尺度选择,并根据调控行为主体系统的特点,从微观层面开展了基于多智能体模拟(ABM)方法的土地利用风险调控行为模拟与决策,并提出了不同土地利用生态风险水平下的多种调控手段与调控策略。
It is an urgent task to explore a good way to efficiently regulate land-use ecological risk in rapid urbanization within the concern of regional landuse structure and function changes to achieve ecological, economic and social sustainable development. With the aid of the research methods and technologies in such fields as geography, landscape ecology, management, mathematics&computer science, the dissertation, selecting Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan (abbr. C-Z-T) core area as the case, analyses its20-odd-year scale characteristics in landuse changes and factors of driving forces on ecological risks from the perspective of landscape structure and function changes to mark the signs and hints of such risks as landuse structure changes and function deterioration caused by improper landuse, attempts to establish a landscape-ecology-based risk evaluation index system and model to make assessment of landuse ecological risks at different scales and finally, based on the assessment results, puts forward how to efficiently regulate landuse ecological risks from such aspects as regulation objectives, focuses, scale selection, decision-making and strategies.The major results are listed as follows.
1. Scale analysis of characteristics land-use change
The scale analysis of land-use change characteristics from a wavelet analysis on typical transect line of the belt along the Xiangjiang River as the typical land-use region on the basis of the data of land-use change extracted from the remote sensing image data in four periods from1989to2008shows ⅰ) that the different degrees of sensitivity of each quarter of the C-Z-T core area to scale change determine their selection in land-use characteristic scale, ⅱ) that the characteristics scale selection varies as the land-use and landscape structure in different parts change, ⅲ) different land-use and landscape patterns have different scale characteristics, and ⅳ) that the value of scale characteristics is inversely proportional to the landscape sensitivity, which is supported by the results ⅰ) the quarter around the city centre has the highest value but the weakest sensitivity to scale change, thus about3,300m parcel analysis being the most appropriate and ii) the urban fringe quarter has the lowest value but the strongest sensitivity to scale change, thus about1,980m parcel analysis being the most appropriate.
2. Analysis of driving factors and mechanism of land-use ecological risk
Its changes of land-use structure and function are the major reason for the area's land-use ecological risk. On the basis of the analysis of the driving factors of land-use change, the ecological characteristics of landscape structure and pattern change have been explored and an assessment has been made on the service value in ecosystem to better comprehend the factors' driving process. The research shows ⅰ) that the socio-economic factor is the dominant driving factor of land-use ecological risk in the area, ⅱ) that the area of construction land increases with the GDP, and ⅲ) that arable land and grassland have the strongest sensitivity, woodland and water the weaker, and construction land and idle land the weakest.
3. LUER assessment and characteristics analysis
On the basis of the combination of the analysis of the area's land-use change and its ecological risk driving factors, an assessment indicator and its model have been established for the source-and-sink landscape. As the results show, land-use ecological risk in the built-up urban area is higher than other areas. The overall risk value of urban districts in Changsha, which has a largest distribution of higher risk areas and highest risk areas, ranks the highest, that in Xiangtan the second and that in Zhuzhou the last. The land-use ecological risk in the core area of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan grows from the normal level to the medium level or even to the relatively high level. Low-risk areas scatter, which exerts much pressure on ecological risk regulation and control. The measurement of assessment units also influences the accuracy of assessment results. A2km×2km unit, compared with a10km×10km unit, is more suitable for land-use ecological risk assessment of urban agglomeration.
4. land-use ecological risk regulation and control
On the basis of the analysis of land-use ecological risk factors, the ecological risk assessment results and the rule of risk indicator change, the objectives and focuses of risk regulation and control are set to find the proper time, space and scale for function regulation and control of land-use ecological risk. With the characteristics of the main regulation and control system into consideration, Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) is adopted in micro-level action simulation and decision of land-use risk regulation and control and a variety of regulation and control means are proposed for multi-level land-use ecological risk.
1.土地利用变化特征尺度分析
根据长株潭核心区1989～2008年4期遥感影像数据资料,提取区域土地利用变化数据,以湘江样带为典型研究区,运用小波分析方法进行特征尺度检测。结果表明：长株潭核心区不同部位的特征尺度选择不是唯一的,长株潭城市群核心区土地利用变化具有多尺度敏感性,不同研究区域或研究部位的土地利用及景观格局变化对特征尺度选择有一定影响。不同土地利用及景观类型具有不同的尺度特征,城市边缘区的特征尺度值最小但景观敏感性最强,宜选择1980m左右的分析粒径；城市建成区特征尺度值最大,宜选择3300m左右的分析粒径,其景观敏感性最差。
2.土地利用生态风险驱动因子及作用机理分析
土地利用结构及功能变化是导致长株潭核心区土地利用生态风险的主要原因。在分析土地利用变化社会驱动因子作用的基础上,研究景观结构特征及格局变化的生态学特征,开展景观敏感性分析及生态系统服务价值评估,以更好的把握生态风险驱动因子作用的方式及过程。研究表明,社会经济因子是长株潭核心区土地利用生态风险作用的主导驱动因子,建设用地变化与GDP变化具有一致性；耕地与草地的景观敏感性最强,其次是林地和水域,建设用地及未利用地的景观敏感性最差。
3.土地利用生态风险评价及特征分析
根据对研究区土地利用变化及生态风险驱动因子作用的分析,结合景观生态系统服务功能价值,建立基于“源”与“汇”景观结构的土地利用生态风险评价指标体系及评价模型。结果表明,城市建成区土地利用生态风险高于其他区域,长沙市区整体风险值最高,较高风险及高风险区分布最广,湘潭次之,株洲市区整体土地利用生态风险最低。长株潭核心区土地利用生态风险均表现出即由一般风险区向中风险区,或者是由一般风险区向较高风险区发展的过渡性特点,低风险分布区域呈现零散分布,区域土地利用生态风险调控的压力较大。评价单元大小对评价结果的准确性有一定的影响,比较10km×10km及2km×2km粒径两种评价单元的分析结果,后者是更适合的城市群土地利用生态风险评价单元。
4.土地利用生态风险调控
结合对土地利用生态风险因子作用分析,以生态风险评价结果及风险指数变化规律为依据,确定不同变化情景的风险调控目标与调控重点,探讨土地利用生态风险的最佳时间、空间及功能调控尺度选择,并根据调控行为主体系统的特点,从微观层面开展了基于多智能体模拟(ABM)方法的土地利用风险调控行为模拟与决策,并提出了不同土地利用生态风险水平下的多种调控手段与调控策略。
It is an urgent task to explore a good way to efficiently regulate land-use ecological risk in rapid urbanization within the concern of regional landuse structure and function changes to achieve ecological, economic and social sustainable development. With the aid of the research methods and technologies in such fields as geography, landscape ecology, management, mathematics&computer science, the dissertation, selecting Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan (abbr. C-Z-T) core area as the case, analyses its20-odd-year scale characteristics in landuse changes and factors of driving forces on ecological risks from the perspective of landscape structure and function changes to mark the signs and hints of such risks as landuse structure changes and function deterioration caused by improper landuse, attempts to establish a landscape-ecology-based risk evaluation index system and model to make assessment of landuse ecological risks at different scales and finally, based on the assessment results, puts forward how to efficiently regulate landuse ecological risks from such aspects as regulation objectives, focuses, scale selection, decision-making and strategies.The major results are listed as follows.
1. Scale analysis of characteristics land-use change
The scale analysis of land-use change characteristics from a wavelet analysis on typical transect line of the belt along the Xiangjiang River as the typical land-use region on the basis of the data of land-use change extracted from the remote sensing image data in four periods from1989to2008shows ⅰ) that the different degrees of sensitivity of each quarter of the C-Z-T core area to scale change determine their selection in land-use characteristic scale, ⅱ) that the characteristics scale selection varies as the land-use and landscape structure in different parts change, ⅲ) different land-use and landscape patterns have different scale characteristics, and ⅳ) that the value of scale characteristics is inversely proportional to the landscape sensitivity, which is supported by the results ⅰ) the quarter around the city centre has the highest value but the weakest sensitivity to scale change, thus about3,300m parcel analysis being the most appropriate and ii) the urban fringe quarter has the lowest value but the strongest sensitivity to scale change, thus about1,980m parcel analysis being the most appropriate.
2. Analysis of driving factors and mechanism of land-use ecological risk
Its changes of land-use structure and function are the major reason for the area's land-use ecological risk. On the basis of the analysis of the driving factors of land-use change, the ecological characteristics of landscape structure and pattern change have been explored and an assessment has been made on the service value in ecosystem to better comprehend the factors' driving process. The research shows ⅰ) that the socio-economic factor is the dominant driving factor of land-use ecological risk in the area, ⅱ) that the area of construction land increases with the GDP, and ⅲ) that arable land and grassland have the strongest sensitivity, woodland and water the weaker, and construction land and idle land the weakest.
3. LUER assessment and characteristics analysis
On the basis of the combination of the analysis of the area's land-use change and its ecological risk driving factors, an assessment indicator and its model have been established for the source-and-sink landscape. As the results show, land-use ecological risk in the built-up urban area is higher than other areas. The overall risk value of urban districts in Changsha, which has a largest distribution of higher risk areas and highest risk areas, ranks the highest, that in Xiangtan the second and that in Zhuzhou the last. The land-use ecological risk in the core area of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan grows from the normal level to the medium level or even to the relatively high level. Low-risk areas scatter, which exerts much pressure on ecological risk regulation and control. The measurement of assessment units also influences the accuracy of assessment results. A2km×2km unit, compared with a10km×10km unit, is more suitable for land-use ecological risk assessment of urban agglomeration.
4. land-use ecological risk regulation and control
On the basis of the analysis of land-use ecological risk factors, the ecological risk assessment results and the rule of risk indicator change, the objectives and focuses of risk regulation and control are set to find the proper time, space and scale for function regulation and control of land-use ecological risk. With the characteristics of the main regulation and control system into consideration, Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) is adopted in micro-level action simulation and decision of land-use risk regulation and control and a variety of regulation and control means are proposed for multi-level land-use ecological risk.
引文
[1]Gottman J. Megalopolis,or the Urbanization of the Northeastern Seaboard[J].Economic Geography,1957,33(7):31-40.
[2]姚士谋,朱英明,陈振光.中国城市群[M].合肥：中国科学技术大学出版社,2001.3-10
[3]McGee T G. The Emergence of Desakota Regions in Asia:Expanding a Hypothesis [M]. Honolulu:University of Hawail Press,1991:25-126.
[4]Beardsley K, James H T, Nathaniel E R et al. Assessing the influence of rapid urban growth and regional policies on biological resources [J].Landscape and Urban Planning 93 (2009):172-183
[5]宋吉涛,方创琳,宋敦江.中国城市群空间结构的稳定性分析[J].地理学报,2006,61(12)：1311-1325
[6]李秀彬.对加速城镇化时期土地利用变化核心学术问题的认识[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2009,19(5)：1-5
[7]Bontje, M A. planner's paradise' lost?-past, present and future of Dutch national urbanization policy [J].European Urban and Regional Studies,2003, (10):135-151.
[8]Kuhn M.Greenbelt and Green Heart:separating and integrating landscapes in European city regions[J].Landscape and Urban Planning,2003 (64):19-27
[9]姚士谋,武清华,薛凤旋等.我国城市群重大发展战略问题探索[J].人文地理,2011,(1)：1-4
[10]Gilliesarr, J B, SYMANZIK J. Effects of urbanization on the aquatic fauna of the Line Creek watershed, Atlanta a satellite perspective[J].Remote Sensing of Environment,2003, 86:411-422
[11]Arthur S T, CARLSONB T N, CLARKEC K C. Satellite and ground-based microclimate and hydrologic analyses coupled with a regional urban growth model [J]. Remote Sensing of Environment,2003,86:385-400
[12]杨山,汤军友.无锡市空间扩展的生态环境质量综合评价研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2003,13(1)：65-69
[13]李洪义,史舟,沙晋明等.基于人工神经网络的生态环境质量遥感评价[J].应用生态学报,2006,17(8)：1475-1480
[14]冯娴慧,魏清泉.基于绿地生态机理的城市空间形态研究[J].热带地理,2006,24(4)：344-348
[15]沈国英,施并章.海洋生态学[M].科学出版社,2002
[16]蔡运龙.自然资源学原理.科学出版社,北京,2008：127
[17]Costanza R, Ralph d'Arge, Rudolfde Groot, et al.The value of the worlds ecosystem services and natural capital[J].Nature,1997,387:253-256.
[18]谢高地,鲁春霞,冷允法等.青藏高原生态资产的价值评估[J].自然资源学报,2003,18(2)：189-195
[19]孙强,蔡运龙,王乐.基于土地利用类型的绿色空间生态评估—以北京市通州区重点新城为例[J].中国土地科学,2007,21(1)：36-42
[20]蔡运龙.自然资源学原理.科学出版社,北京,2008：205-206
[21]曾辉,姜传明.深圳市龙华地区快速城市化过程中的景观结构研究—林地的结构和异质性特征分析[J].生态学报,2000,20(3)：378-383
[22]谢花林.基于景观结构的土地利用生态风险空间特征分析—以江西兴国县为例[J].中国环境科学2011,31(4)：688-695
[23]高杨,黄华梅,吴志峰.基于投影寻踪的珠江三角洲景观生态安全评价[J].生态学报,2010,30(21)：5894—5903
[24]傅伯杰,吕一河,陈利顶等.国际景观生态学研究新进展[J].生态学报,2008,28(2)：798-804
[25]陈利顶,刘洋,吕一河等.景观生态学中的格局分析：现状、困境与未来[J].生态学报,2008,28(11)：5521-5531
[26]WU J G. Modeling urban landscape dynamics:A case study in Phoenix, USA. Urban Ecosystems,2004, (7):215-240
[27]邬建国.景观生态学—概念与理论[J].生态学杂志2000,19(1)：42-52
[28]邬建国.景观生态学中的十大研究论题[J].生态学报,2004,24(9)：2074-2076
[29]Farina A. Principles and methods in landscapes Ecology published by Chapman & Hall,an imprint of Thomson Science, London,UK,1998:23.
[30]邬建国.景观生态学—格局、过程、尺度与等级(第二版)[M].高等教育出版社,2007：89
[31]陈利顶,傅伯杰等.“源”“汇”景观理论及其生态学意义[J].生态学报,2006,26(5)：1145
[32]史培军,宫鹏,李晓兵等.土地利用/覆盖变化研究的方法与实践[M].北京：科学出版社,2000：1
[33]闫小培,毛蒋兴,普军.巨型城市区域土地利用变化的人文因素分析—以珠江三角洲地区为例[J].地理学报,2006,61(6)：613-623
[34]毛蒋兴,李志刚,闫小培.快速城市化背景下深圳土地利用时空变化的人文因素分析[J].资源科学,2008,30,(6)：939-948
[35]黄庆旭,何春阳,史培军.城市扩展多尺度驱动机制分析—以北京为例[J].经济地理,2009,29(5)：714-721
[36]许联芳,谭勇.长株潭城市群“两型社会”试验区土地承载力评价[J].经济地理,2009,29(1)：69-73
[37]郭朝晖,肖细元,陈同斌等.湘江中下游农田土壤和蔬菜的重金属污染[J].地理学报,2008,63(1)：69-73
[38]史培军,宫鹏,李晓兵等.土地利用/覆盖变化研究的方法与实践[M].北京：科学出版社,2000：24
[39]张新时,杨奠安.中国全球变化样带的设置与研究[J].第四纪研究,1995,15(1)：43-52
[40]康慕谊,江源,石瑞香NECT样带1984—1996土地利用变化分析[J].地理科学,2000,20(2)：115-120
[41]龙花楼,李秀彬.长江沿线样带土地利用格局及其影响因子分析[J].地理学报,2001,56(4)：417-425
[42]龙花楼,李秀彬.区域土地利用转型分析—以长江沿线样带为例[J].自然资源学报,2002,17(2)：144-149
[43]GONG J Z, LIU Y S, XIA B C.Spatial heterogeneity of urban land-cover landscape in Guangzhou from 1990 to 2005. [J].Geogr. Sci. (2009) 19:213-224(地理学报英文版)
[44]张景华,吴志峰,吕志强等.城乡样带景观梯度分析的幅度效应[J].生态学杂志,2008,27(6)：978-984
[45]汪自书,刘语凡,张文娟,曾辉.深圳市典型城市化样带建设用地变化过程分析[J].资源科学,2009,31(5)：794-800
[46]Bradshaw G A, Thomas A Spies. Characterizing canopy gap structure in forests using wavelet analysis[J]. Journal of Ecology,1992,80:205-215.
[47]MonicaG. Turner. Spatial and temporal analysis of landscape patterns. Landscape Ecology, 1999,4(1):21-30.
[48]Patrick M. A. James, Richard A. Fleming, Identifying significant scale-specific spatial boundaries using wavelets and null models:spruce budworm defoliation in Ontario, Canada as a case study. Marie-Jose'e Fortin. Landscape Ecol (2010) 25:873-887
[49]黄桂芳,刘茂松,徐驰等.南京市城区景观特征尺度动态[J].应用生态学报,2008,19(3)：606-612
[50]李俊祥,王玉洁,沈晓虹等.上海市城乡梯度景观格局分析[J].生态学 报,2004,24(9)：1973-1980
[51]王其藩.高级系统动力学[M].北京：清华大学出版社,1995.
[52]Loib W, Toetzer T.Modeling growth and densification processes in suburban regions-simulation of landscape transition with spatial agents [J]. Environmental Modelling & Software,2003,18(6):553-563
[53]Castellaa J C, Kamb S P, Quangc D D, et al.Combining top-down and bottom-up modelling approaches of land use/cover change to support public policies:Application to sustainable management of natural resources in northern Vietnam [J]. Land Use Policy,2007,24(3): 531-545
[54]Taubenbock H, Wegmann M, Roth A, et al. Urbanization in India-Spatiotemporal analysis using remote sensing data[J]. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems,2009,33(3): 179-188
[55]Mitsovaa D, Shusterb W, Wangc X.A cellular automata model of land cover change to integrate urban growth with open space conservation [J]. Landscape and Urban Planning, 2011,99(2):141-153
[56]Claessens L, Schoorl J.M., Verburg P H, et al.Modelling interactions and feedback mechanisms between land use change and landscape processes [J]. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment,2009,129(1-3):157-170
[57]Mark D.A. Rounsevella, Bas Pedrolib, Karl-Heinz Erbc, Marc Grambergerd, et al. Challenges for land system science. Land Use Policy, Available online 9 February 2012,In Press, Corrected Proof-Note to users
[58]Vimala R, Geniauxb G, Pluvineta P,et al. Detecting threatened biodiversity by urbanization at regional and local scales using an urban sprawl simulation approach:Application on the French Mediterranean region [J]. Landscape and Urban Planning,2012,104,(3-4):343-355
[59]毛蒋兴,闫小培,李志刚等.深圳城市规划对土地利用的调控效能[J].地理学报,2008,63(3)：311-320.
[60]李景刚,何春阳,李晓兵.快速城市化地区自然/半自然景观空间生态风险评价研究—以北京为例[J].自然资源学报,2008,23(1)：33-47.
[61]毛小苓,倪晋仁.生态风险评价研究述评.北京大学学报(自然科学版),2005,41(4)：646-654.
[62]阳文锐,王如松,黄锦楼,李锋,陈展.生态风险评价及研究进展.应用生态学报,2007,18(8)：1869-1876.
[63]Lackey R L. Fisheriesmanagement:Integrating societal preference, decision analysis, and ecological risk assessment.Environmental Science and Policy,1998,1:329-335
[64]Suter II G W. Ecological Risk Assessment. BocaRaton,U S A:Lewis Publishers,1993
[65]Suter Ⅱ G W, Efroymson R A, Sample B E, et al.Ecological Risk Assessment for Contaminated Sites. BocaRaton, USA:Lewis Publishers,2000
[66]United States Environmental Protection Agency. Ecological Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund:Process for Designing and Conducting Ecological Risk Assessments-Interim Fina.l EPA-540-R-97/006. Washington DC:United States Environmental Protection Agency,1997
[67]United States Environmental Protection Agency. Guidelines for Ecological Risk Assessment. EPA/630/R-95/002F. Washington DC:United States Environmental Protection Agency,199
[68]Moraes Rand Molander S.A Procedure for tiered assessment of risks (PRTER). [D]. Chalmers University of Technology,Gothenborg, Sweden.
[69]于婧,聂艳,景高了等.基于生态风险分析的耕地质量退化风险评价[J].资源科学,2009,31(2)：330-335
[70]Farina A. Principles and methods in landscapes Ecology published by Chapman & Hall,an imprint of Thomson Science, London,UK,1998:23.
[71]Graham E J, HunsakerC T, O'NellR V. Ecological risk assessment at the regional scale. EcologicalApplication,1991,1:196-206
[72]曾辉,刘国军.基于景观结构的区域生态风险分析[J].中国环境科学,1999,19(5)：454-457
[73]谢花林.基于景观结构和空间统计学的区域生态风险分析[J].生态学报,2008,28(10)：5021-5022
[74]刘勇,张红等.基于土地利用变化的太原市土地生态风险研究[J].中国土地科学,2009,23,(1)：52-58
[75]刘永兵,王衍臻等.松嫩草原西部土地利用与生态风险评价—以杜蒙县为例[J].水土保持学报,2006,20(5)：150-153
[76]周利军,张雪萍.扎龙自然保护区土地利用变化与生态风险评价[J].自然灾害学报,2009,18(2)：186-190
[77]曾勇.区域生态风险评价—以呼和浩特市区为例[J].生态学报,2010,30(3)：668-673
[78]王科明,石惠春,周伟等.干旱地区土地利用结构变化与生态服务价值的关系研究—以酒泉市为例.中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(3)：124-128
[79]杨叶涛,龚建雅,周启鸣,王迎迎.土地利用景观格局对城市扩张影响研究[J].自然资源学报, 2010,25(2)：320-329
[80]傅丽华.长株潭城市群土地利用生态风险评价[J].自然灾害学报,2011,(02)；96-101
[81]陈书忠,周敬宣,李湘梅等.城市环境影响模拟的系统动力学研究[J].生态环境学报2010,19(8)：1822-1827
[82]田光进,邬建国.基于智能体模型的土地利用动态模拟研究进展[J].生态学报,2008,28(9)
[83]薛领,杨开忠,沈体雁.基于agent的建模—地理计算的新发展[J].地球科学进展,2004,19(2)
[84]王涛,陈海等.基于Agent建模的农户土地利用行为模拟研究—以陕西省米脂县孟岔村为例[J].自然资源学报,2009,24(12)
[85]徐建华.地理学中的数学方法[M].北京：高等教育出版社.2002
[86]何春阳,陈晋,史培军,等.大都市区城市扩展模型：以北京城市扩展模拟为例[J].地理学报,2003,58(2)：294-304.
[87]谈明洪,李秀彬,吕昌河.我国城市用地扩张的驱动力分析[J].经济地理,2003,23(5)：635-639.
[88]刘盛和,吴传钧,沈洪泉.基于GIS的北京城市土地利用扩展模式[J].地理学报,2000,55(4)：407-415.
[89]Bastian O, Kronert R,Lipsky Z. Landscape diagnosis on different space and time scales-a challenge for landscape planning.Landscape Ecology,2006,21:359-374
[90]高杨,黄华梅,吴志峰.基于投影寻踪的珠江三角洲景观生态安全评价[J].生态学报,2010,30(21)：5894-5903
[91]谢高地,鲁春霞,冷允法等.青藏高原生态资产的价值评估[J].自然资源学报,2003,18(2)：189-195
[92]孙强,蔡运龙,王乐.基于土地利用类型的绿色空间生态评估—以北京市通州区重点新城为例[J].中国土地科学,2007,21(1)：36-42
[93]汤国安,杨昕Arcgis地理信息空间分析实验教程[M].北京：科学出版社,2006：120-125
[94]孙丹峰.土地利用/覆被遥感分析[M].北京：中国大地出版社,2006：72-73
[95]Moreira E. et al.dnamical coupling of multiscale land change models[J].Landscape Ecol,2009,09:DOI 10.1007/s10980-009-9397-x
[96]郁文,刘茂松,徐驰等.南京市城市景观的特征尺度[J].生态学报,2007,27(4)：1480-1488
[97]张友静,樊恒通.城市植被尺度鉴别与分类研究[J]地理与地理信息科学,2007,23(6)：54-57
[98]赵金,陈曦.土地利用监测适宜尺度选择方法研究—以塔里木河流域为例[J].地理学报,2007,62(6)：659-668
[99]谢江波,刘彤.小波分析方法在心叶驼绒藜空间格局尺度推绎研究中的应用[J].生态学 报,2007,27(7)：2704-2714
[100]邬建国.景观生态学—格局、过程、尺度与等级(第二版)[M].北京：高等教育出版社,2007.p139-140
[101]Kahn J, Wiener A J.The Year 2000:A Framework for Speculation on the Next 33 Years [M].New York:MacMillan Press,1967.
[102]Pearman A D. Scenario construction for transportation planning [J].Transportation Planning and Technology,1988,7:73-85
[103]Ratcliffe J S. Scenario building:A suitable method for strategic property planning?[M].Cambridge:RICS Cutting Edge Conference,1999.
[104]Schoemaker P J H. Scenario planning:[J]. A tool for strategic thinking. Sloan Manage. Rev.1995:25-40.
[105]Ringland G. Scenario planning:Managing for the Future. New York:John Wiley,1998:3-15.
[106]龙瀛,沈振江,毛其智,等.基于约束性CA方法的北京城市形态情景分析[J].地理学报,2010,65(6)：643-655
[107]张永安,田钢.多主体仿真模型的主体行为规则设计研究[J].软科学,2008,22(3)：14-19
[108]田光进,邬建国.基于智能体模型的土地利用动态模拟研究进展[J].生态学报,2008,28(9)：4451-4459
[109]李秀珍,布仁仓,常禹等.景观格局指标对不同景观格局的反应[J].生态学报,2004,24(1)：123-134
[110]陈文波,肖笃宁,李秀珍.景观指数分类、应用及构建研究[J].应用生态学报,2002,13(1)：121-125
[111]申卫军,邬建国,任海等.空间幅度变化对景观格局分析的影响[J].生态学报,2003,23(11)：2219-2231
[112]袁艺,史培军,刘颖慧,等.快速城市化过程中土地覆盖格局研究—以深圳市为例[J].生态学报2003,23(9)：1832-1840
[113]谈文琦,徐建华,岳文泽等.城市景观空间自相关与自相似的尺度特征研究[J].生态学杂志,2005,24(6)：627-630
[114]肖笃宁,李秀珍.景观生态学的学科前沿与发展战略[J].生态学报,2003,23(8)：1615-1621
[115]冷文芳,肖笃宁,李月辉等.通过《Landscape Ecology》杂志看国际景观生态学研究动向[J].生态学杂志,2004.23(5)：140-144.
[116]赵文武,傅伯杰,陈利顶.景观指数的粒度变化效应[J].第四纪研究,2003,23(3)：326-333.
[117]张新时,杨奠安.中国全球变化样带的设置与研究[J].第四纪研究,1995,15(1)：43-52
[118]康慕谊,江源,石瑞香NECT样带1984—1996土地利用变化分析[J].地理科学,2000,20(2)：115-120
[119]龙花楼,李秀彬.区域土地利用转型分析—以长江沿线样带为例[J].自然资源学报,2002,17(2)：144-149
[120]Bradshaw G A, Thomas A Spies. Characterizing canopy gap structure in forests using wavelet analysis[J]. Journal of Ecology,1992,80:205-215.
[121]Monica G, Turner. Spatial and temporal analysis of landscape patterns. Landscape Ecology, 1999,4(1):21-30.
[122]Patrick M. A. James Richard A. Fleming, Identifying significant scale-specific spatial boundaries using wavelets and null models:spruce budworm defoliation in Ontario, Canada as a case study[J]. Marie-Josee Fortin. Landscape Ecol (2010) 25:873-887
[123]孙丹峰IKONOS影像景观格局特征尺度的小波与半方差分析[J].生态学报,2003,23(3)：405-413.
[124]黄桂芳,刘茂松,徐驰等.南京市城区景观特征尺度动态[J].应用生态学报,2008,19(3)：606-612
[125]郁文,刘茂松,徐驰等.南京市城市景观的特征尺度[J].生态学报,2007,27(4)：1480-1488
[126]李俊祥,王玉洁,沈晓虹等.上海市城乡梯度景观格局分析[J].生态学报,2004,24(9)：1973-1980
[127]高艳妮,陈玮,何兴元.基于二维小波分析的景观特征尺度识别[J].应用生态学报,2010,21(6)：1523-1529
[128]陈睿山,蔡运龙.土地变化科学中的尺度问题与解决途径[J].地理研究,2010,29,(7)：1244-1256
[129]梁友嘉,徐中民,钟方雷.基于SD和CLUE-S模型的张掖市甘州区土地利用情景分析[J].地理研究,2011,30,(3)：564-576
[130]张娜.生态学中的尺度问题：内涵与分析方法[J].生态学报,2006,26(7)：2340-2355
[131]傅丽华,谢炳庚,何燕子.基于小波分析长株潭核心区土地利用变化尺度特征研究[J].地理科学,2012,32(1)：60-65
[132]邓楚雄,谢炳庚,李晓青等.基于主成分分析法的湖南省农用地集约利用评价[J].热带地理,2011,31(1)：71-76
[133]陈利顶,傅伯杰等.“源”“汇”景观理论及其生态学意义[J].生态学报,2006,26(5)：1145-1148
[134]Ruth S D, Jonathan A F, Gregory P Asner. Land-use choices:balancing human needs and ecosystem function [J]. Front Ecol. Environ,2004,2 (5):249-257.
[135]Wrbkaa T, Erbb K H, Niels B,Linking pattern and process in cultural landscapes:An empirical study based on spatially explicit indicators [J].Land Use Policy,2004, (21) 289-306.
[136]谢炳庚,等.湿地景观生态学理论和方法研究[M].中南工业大学出版社,1998：9
[137]张秋菊,傅伯杰,陈利顶.关于景观格局演变研究的几个问题[J].地理科学,2003,23(3)：264-270
[138]岳文泽,徐建华,徐丽华等.不同尺度下城市景观综合指数的空间变异特征研究[J].应用生态学报2005,11(16)：2053-2059
[139]甄霖,谢高地,杨丽,成升魁.泾河流域分县景观格局特征及相关性[J].生态学报,2005,25(12)：3343-3353
[140]岳德鹏,王计平,刘永兵等.GIS与RS技术支持下的北京西北地区景观格局优化[J].地理学报,2007,62(11)：1223-1231
[141]David J.B. Baldwin1, Kevin Weaver2, Frank Schnekenburger and Ajith H. Perera. Sensitivity of landscape pattern indices to input data characteristics on real landscapes:implications for their use in natural disturbance emulation[J].Landscape Ecology 2004,19:255-271
[142]徐立,刘少博,刘云国,等.湘中红壤丘陵区土地利用变化对生态系统服务价值的影响-以长沙市为例[J].环境科学学报,2009,29(8)：1788-1792
[143]吴传清.区域经济学原理[M].武汉大学出版社,2008
[144]Leibowitz S G, Loehle C, Li B L, et al. Modeling landscape functions and effects:a network approach. Ecological Modelling[J].2000,132:77-94
[145]Lesta M, Mauring T, Mander U. Estimation of landscape potential for construction of surface-flow wetlands for wastewater treatment in Estonia[J].Environmental Management 2007,40:303-313
[146]Lee S W, Ellis C D, Kweon B S, et al. Relationship between landscape structure and neighborhood satisfaction in urbanized areas[J]. Landscape and Urban Planning 2008, 85(1):60-70
[147]Gustafson E.J. and Parker G.R. Relationships between land cover proportion and indices of landscape spatial pattern[J]. Landscape Ecology,1992,7:101-110.
[148]Griffith J A, Martinko E A, Price K P. Landscape structure analysis of Kansas at three scales[J]. Landscape and Urban Planning,2000,52:45-61.
[149]Alexander B, Jianguo Wu, Corinna G. Multiscale analysis of the urbanization pattern of the Phoenix metropolitan landscape of USA:Time, space and thematic resolution [J].Landscape and Urban Planning (2010) 94:206-217
[150]John N. DiBari. Evaluation of five landscape-level metrics for measuring the effects of urbanization on landscape structure:the case of Tucson, Arizona, USA [J].Landscape and Urban Planning (2007) 79:308-313
[151]David J B, Kevin W, et al. Sensitivity of landscape pattern indices to input data characteristics on real landscapes:implications for their use in natural disturbance emulation [J]. Landscape Ecology,2004,19:255-271,
[152]殷贺,王仰麟等.区域生态风险评价研究进展[J].生态学杂志,2009,28(05)：967-973.
[153]Farina A. Principles and methods in landscapes Ecology[M].London,UK:Published by Chapman & Hall,an imprint of Thomson Science,1998.
[154]Bastian O, Rudolf K, Lipsky Z. Landscape diagnosis on different space and time scales-a challenge for landscape planning[J]. Landscape Ecology,2006,21:359-374
[155]陈利顶,傅伯杰,徐建英等.基于“源-汇”生态过程的景观格局识别方法—景观空间负荷对比指数[J].生态学报,2003,23(11)：2406-2413
[156]吕一河,傅伯杰.生态学中的尺度及尺度转换方法[J].生态学报,2001,21(12)：2097
[157]Graham E J, Hunsaker CT,O'Nell R V. Ecological risk assessment at the regional scale[J].Ecological Application,1991,(1):196-206
[158]曾辉,刘国军.基于景观结构的区域生态风险分析[J].中国环境科学,1999,19(5)：454-457
[159]刘永兵,王衍臻,李海龙等.松嫩草原西部土地利用与生态风险评价—以杜蒙县为例[J].水土保持学报2006,20(5)：151
[160]曾勇.区域生态风险评价—以呼和浩特市区为例[J].生态学报,2010,30(3)：668—670
[161]于婧.基于生态风险分析的耕地质量退化风险评价[J].资源科学,2009,31(2)：330-335
[162]Rodrigues S M, Pereira M E, et al. A review of regulatory decisions for environmental protection:Part Ⅰ -Challenges in the implementation of national soil policies[J].Environment International,2009,35:202-213.
[163]刘纪远.中国资源环境遥感宏观调查与动态研究[M].北京：中国科学技术出版社,1996：7-10.
[164]苏海民,何爱霞.基于RS和地统计学的福州市土地利用分析[J].自然资源学报,2010, 25(1)：322
[165]俞孔坚,王思思,李迪华,李春波.北京市生态安全格局及城市增长预景[J].生态学报,2009,29(3)：1189-1204
[166]王世杰.生态补偿效益、标准—国际经验及对我国的启示[J].地理研究,2010,29(4)：597-606.
[167]W.nscher T, Engel S,Wunder S. Spatial targeting of payments for environmental services:a tool for boosting conservation benefits-Ecological Economics,2008,65(4):822-833-
[168]Dietzel C, Herold M, Hemphill J J,et al.Spatio-temporal dynamics in Californias' central valley:Empirical links to urban theory [J]. International Journal of Geographic Information Science,2005,19(2):175-195.
[169]邱荣旭,李山,吴静.基于Agent建模在旅游模拟研究中的回顾与展望[J].地理与地理信息科学,2009,25(5)：102-107
[170]Randy H Gimblett. Integrating geographic information systems and agent-based modeling techniques for simulating social and ecological processes[J]. New York:Oxford University Press,2002.121-122
[171]Benenson I. Multi-agent simulations of residential dynamics in the city[J]. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems,1998,22(1):25-42.
[172]Ligtenberg A. A design and application of a multi-agent system for simulation of multi-actor spatial planning[J]. Journal of Environmental Management,2004,72:43-55.
[173]孙世岩,刘忠,刘健.复杂适应系统理论与计算机作战模拟[J].计算机仿真,2003,12(20)：20-23.
[174]王涛,陈海,白红英,等.基于Agent建模的农户土地利用行为模拟研究—以陕西省米脂县孟岔村为例[J].自然资源学报,2009,24(12)：2056-2066
[175]薛领,杨开忠,沈体雁.基于agent的建模—地理计算的新发展[J].地球科学进展,2004,19(2)：306-310
[176]田光进,邬建国.基于智能体模型的土地利用动态模拟研究进展[J].生态学报,2008,28(9)：4451-4459
[177]傅丽华.社区参与城郊农业生态旅游开发研究—以株洲市仙庾岭开发为例[J].湖南农业大学学报：社科版,2006,(2)：28-32
[178]周平,蒙吉军.区域生态风险管理研究进展[J].生态学报,2009,29(4)：2102
[179]Winsemius P G U. Responding to the Environmental Challenge[D]. Business Horizons, Indiana University, Graduate School of Business, March-April.1992,35(2):12-20.
[180]刘永,郭怀成.湖泊-流域生态系统管理研究[M].北京：科学出版社,2008
[181]蔡海生,张学玲,黄宏胜.“湖泊-流域”土地生态管理的理念与方法探讨[J].自然资源学报,2010,25(6)
[182]龙花楼.中国农村宅基地转型的理论与证实[J].地理学报,2006,61(10)：1093-1100
[183]陈菁.海峡西岸经济区快速城市化动力机制分析[J].湖南师范大学自然科学学报,2010,33(3)：114
[184]Moreira E.et al.Dynamical coupling of multiscale land change models [J].Landscape Ecol, 2009,09
[185]陈百明,张凤荣.我国土地利用研究的发展态势与重点领域[J].地理研究,2011,30(1)：1-9
[186]余强毅,吴文斌,唐华俊等.复杂系统理论与Agent模型在土地变化科学中的研究进展[J].地理学报,2011,66(11)：1518-1530
[2]姚士谋,朱英明,陈振光.中国城市群[M].合肥：中国科学技术大学出版社,2001.3-10
[3]McGee T G. The Emergence of Desakota Regions in Asia:Expanding a Hypothesis [M]. Honolulu:University of Hawail Press,1991:25-126.
[4]Beardsley K, James H T, Nathaniel E R et al. Assessing the influence of rapid urban growth and regional policies on biological resources [J].Landscape and Urban Planning 93 (2009):172-183
[5]宋吉涛,方创琳,宋敦江.中国城市群空间结构的稳定性分析[J].地理学报,2006,61(12)：1311-1325
[6]李秀彬.对加速城镇化时期土地利用变化核心学术问题的认识[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2009,19(5)：1-5
[7]Bontje, M A. planner's paradise' lost?-past, present and future of Dutch national urbanization policy [J].European Urban and Regional Studies,2003, (10):135-151.
[8]Kuhn M.Greenbelt and Green Heart:separating and integrating landscapes in European city regions[J].Landscape and Urban Planning,2003 (64):19-27
[9]姚士谋,武清华,薛凤旋等.我国城市群重大发展战略问题探索[J].人文地理,2011,(1)：1-4
[10]Gilliesarr, J B, SYMANZIK J. Effects of urbanization on the aquatic fauna of the Line Creek watershed, Atlanta a satellite perspective[J].Remote Sensing of Environment,2003, 86:411-422
[11]Arthur S T, CARLSONB T N, CLARKEC K C. Satellite and ground-based microclimate and hydrologic analyses coupled with a regional urban growth model [J]. Remote Sensing of Environment,2003,86:385-400
[12]杨山,汤军友.无锡市空间扩展的生态环境质量综合评价研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2003,13(1)：65-69
[13]李洪义,史舟,沙晋明等.基于人工神经网络的生态环境质量遥感评价[J].应用生态学报,2006,17(8)：1475-1480
[14]冯娴慧,魏清泉.基于绿地生态机理的城市空间形态研究[J].热带地理,2006,24(4)：344-348
[15]沈国英,施并章.海洋生态学[M].科学出版社,2002
[16]蔡运龙.自然资源学原理.科学出版社,北京,2008：127
[17]Costanza R, Ralph d'Arge, Rudolfde Groot, et al.The value of the worlds ecosystem services and natural capital[J].Nature,1997,387:253-256.
[18]谢高地,鲁春霞,冷允法等.青藏高原生态资产的价值评估[J].自然资源学报,2003,18(2)：189-195
[19]孙强,蔡运龙,王乐.基于土地利用类型的绿色空间生态评估—以北京市通州区重点新城为例[J].中国土地科学,2007,21(1)：36-42
[20]蔡运龙.自然资源学原理.科学出版社,北京,2008：205-206
[21]曾辉,姜传明.深圳市龙华地区快速城市化过程中的景观结构研究—林地的结构和异质性特征分析[J].生态学报,2000,20(3)：378-383
[22]谢花林.基于景观结构的土地利用生态风险空间特征分析—以江西兴国县为例[J].中国环境科学2011,31(4)：688-695
[23]高杨,黄华梅,吴志峰.基于投影寻踪的珠江三角洲景观生态安全评价[J].生态学报,2010,30(21)：5894—5903
[24]傅伯杰,吕一河,陈利顶等.国际景观生态学研究新进展[J].生态学报,2008,28(2)：798-804
[25]陈利顶,刘洋,吕一河等.景观生态学中的格局分析：现状、困境与未来[J].生态学报,2008,28(11)：5521-5531
[26]WU J G. Modeling urban landscape dynamics:A case study in Phoenix, USA. Urban Ecosystems,2004, (7):215-240
[27]邬建国.景观生态学—概念与理论[J].生态学杂志2000,19(1)：42-52
[28]邬建国.景观生态学中的十大研究论题[J].生态学报,2004,24(9)：2074-2076
[29]Farina A. Principles and methods in landscapes Ecology published by Chapman & Hall,an imprint of Thomson Science, London,UK,1998:23.
[30]邬建国.景观生态学—格局、过程、尺度与等级(第二版)[M].高等教育出版社,2007：89
[31]陈利顶,傅伯杰等.“源”“汇”景观理论及其生态学意义[J].生态学报,2006,26(5)：1145
[32]史培军,宫鹏,李晓兵等.土地利用/覆盖变化研究的方法与实践[M].北京：科学出版社,2000：1
[33]闫小培,毛蒋兴,普军.巨型城市区域土地利用变化的人文因素分析—以珠江三角洲地区为例[J].地理学报,2006,61(6)：613-623
[34]毛蒋兴,李志刚,闫小培.快速城市化背景下深圳土地利用时空变化的人文因素分析[J].资源科学,2008,30,(6)：939-948
[35]黄庆旭,何春阳,史培军.城市扩展多尺度驱动机制分析—以北京为例[J].经济地理,2009,29(5)：714-721
[36]许联芳,谭勇.长株潭城市群“两型社会”试验区土地承载力评价[J].经济地理,2009,29(1)：69-73
[37]郭朝晖,肖细元,陈同斌等.湘江中下游农田土壤和蔬菜的重金属污染[J].地理学报,2008,63(1)：69-73
[38]史培军,宫鹏,李晓兵等.土地利用/覆盖变化研究的方法与实践[M].北京：科学出版社,2000：24
[39]张新时,杨奠安.中国全球变化样带的设置与研究[J].第四纪研究,1995,15(1)：43-52
[40]康慕谊,江源,石瑞香NECT样带1984—1996土地利用变化分析[J].地理科学,2000,20(2)：115-120
[41]龙花楼,李秀彬.长江沿线样带土地利用格局及其影响因子分析[J].地理学报,2001,56(4)：417-425
[42]龙花楼,李秀彬.区域土地利用转型分析—以长江沿线样带为例[J].自然资源学报,2002,17(2)：144-149
[43]GONG J Z, LIU Y S, XIA B C.Spatial heterogeneity of urban land-cover landscape in Guangzhou from 1990 to 2005. [J].Geogr. Sci. (2009) 19:213-224(地理学报英文版)
[44]张景华,吴志峰,吕志强等.城乡样带景观梯度分析的幅度效应[J].生态学杂志,2008,27(6)：978-984
[45]汪自书,刘语凡,张文娟,曾辉.深圳市典型城市化样带建设用地变化过程分析[J].资源科学,2009,31(5)：794-800
[46]Bradshaw G A, Thomas A Spies. Characterizing canopy gap structure in forests using wavelet analysis[J]. Journal of Ecology,1992,80:205-215.
[47]MonicaG. Turner. Spatial and temporal analysis of landscape patterns. Landscape Ecology, 1999,4(1):21-30.
[48]Patrick M. A. James, Richard A. Fleming, Identifying significant scale-specific spatial boundaries using wavelets and null models:spruce budworm defoliation in Ontario, Canada as a case study. Marie-Jose'e Fortin. Landscape Ecol (2010) 25:873-887
[49]黄桂芳,刘茂松,徐驰等.南京市城区景观特征尺度动态[J].应用生态学报,2008,19(3)：606-612
[50]李俊祥,王玉洁,沈晓虹等.上海市城乡梯度景观格局分析[J].生态学 报,2004,24(9)：1973-1980
[51]王其藩.高级系统动力学[M].北京：清华大学出版社,1995.
[52]Loib W, Toetzer T.Modeling growth and densification processes in suburban regions-simulation of landscape transition with spatial agents [J]. Environmental Modelling & Software,2003,18(6):553-563
[53]Castellaa J C, Kamb S P, Quangc D D, et al.Combining top-down and bottom-up modelling approaches of land use/cover change to support public policies:Application to sustainable management of natural resources in northern Vietnam [J]. Land Use Policy,2007,24(3): 531-545
[54]Taubenbock H, Wegmann M, Roth A, et al. Urbanization in India-Spatiotemporal analysis using remote sensing data[J]. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems,2009,33(3): 179-188
[55]Mitsovaa D, Shusterb W, Wangc X.A cellular automata model of land cover change to integrate urban growth with open space conservation [J]. Landscape and Urban Planning, 2011,99(2):141-153
[56]Claessens L, Schoorl J.M., Verburg P H, et al.Modelling interactions and feedback mechanisms between land use change and landscape processes [J]. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment,2009,129(1-3):157-170
[57]Mark D.A. Rounsevella, Bas Pedrolib, Karl-Heinz Erbc, Marc Grambergerd, et al. Challenges for land system science. Land Use Policy, Available online 9 February 2012,In Press, Corrected Proof-Note to users
[58]Vimala R, Geniauxb G, Pluvineta P,et al. Detecting threatened biodiversity by urbanization at regional and local scales using an urban sprawl simulation approach:Application on the French Mediterranean region [J]. Landscape and Urban Planning,2012,104,(3-4):343-355
[59]毛蒋兴,闫小培,李志刚等.深圳城市规划对土地利用的调控效能[J].地理学报,2008,63(3)：311-320.
[60]李景刚,何春阳,李晓兵.快速城市化地区自然/半自然景观空间生态风险评价研究—以北京为例[J].自然资源学报,2008,23(1)：33-47.
[61]毛小苓,倪晋仁.生态风险评价研究述评.北京大学学报(自然科学版),2005,41(4)：646-654.
[62]阳文锐,王如松,黄锦楼,李锋,陈展.生态风险评价及研究进展.应用生态学报,2007,18(8)：1869-1876.
[63]Lackey R L. Fisheriesmanagement:Integrating societal preference, decision analysis, and ecological risk assessment.Environmental Science and Policy,1998,1:329-335
[64]Suter II G W. Ecological Risk Assessment. BocaRaton,U S A:Lewis Publishers,1993
[65]Suter Ⅱ G W, Efroymson R A, Sample B E, et al.Ecological Risk Assessment for Contaminated Sites. BocaRaton, USA:Lewis Publishers,2000
[66]United States Environmental Protection Agency. Ecological Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund:Process for Designing and Conducting Ecological Risk Assessments-Interim Fina.l EPA-540-R-97/006. Washington DC:United States Environmental Protection Agency,1997
[67]United States Environmental Protection Agency. Guidelines for Ecological Risk Assessment. EPA/630/R-95/002F. Washington DC:United States Environmental Protection Agency,199
[68]Moraes Rand Molander S.A Procedure for tiered assessment of risks (PRTER). [D]. Chalmers University of Technology,Gothenborg, Sweden.
[69]于婧,聂艳,景高了等.基于生态风险分析的耕地质量退化风险评价[J].资源科学,2009,31(2)：330-335
[70]Farina A. Principles and methods in landscapes Ecology published by Chapman & Hall,an imprint of Thomson Science, London,UK,1998:23.
[71]Graham E J, HunsakerC T, O'NellR V. Ecological risk assessment at the regional scale. EcologicalApplication,1991,1:196-206
[72]曾辉,刘国军.基于景观结构的区域生态风险分析[J].中国环境科学,1999,19(5)：454-457
[73]谢花林.基于景观结构和空间统计学的区域生态风险分析[J].生态学报,2008,28(10)：5021-5022
[74]刘勇,张红等.基于土地利用变化的太原市土地生态风险研究[J].中国土地科学,2009,23,(1)：52-58
[75]刘永兵,王衍臻等.松嫩草原西部土地利用与生态风险评价—以杜蒙县为例[J].水土保持学报,2006,20(5)：150-153
[76]周利军,张雪萍.扎龙自然保护区土地利用变化与生态风险评价[J].自然灾害学报,2009,18(2)：186-190
[77]曾勇.区域生态风险评价—以呼和浩特市区为例[J].生态学报,2010,30(3)：668-673
[78]王科明,石惠春,周伟等.干旱地区土地利用结构变化与生态服务价值的关系研究—以酒泉市为例.中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(3)：124-128
[79]杨叶涛,龚建雅,周启鸣,王迎迎.土地利用景观格局对城市扩张影响研究[J].自然资源学报, 2010,25(2)：320-329
[80]傅丽华.长株潭城市群土地利用生态风险评价[J].自然灾害学报,2011,(02)；96-101
[81]陈书忠,周敬宣,李湘梅等.城市环境影响模拟的系统动力学研究[J].生态环境学报2010,19(8)：1822-1827
[82]田光进,邬建国.基于智能体模型的土地利用动态模拟研究进展[J].生态学报,2008,28(9)
[83]薛领,杨开忠,沈体雁.基于agent的建模—地理计算的新发展[J].地球科学进展,2004,19(2)
[84]王涛,陈海等.基于Agent建模的农户土地利用行为模拟研究—以陕西省米脂县孟岔村为例[J].自然资源学报,2009,24(12)
[85]徐建华.地理学中的数学方法[M].北京：高等教育出版社.2002
[86]何春阳,陈晋,史培军,等.大都市区城市扩展模型：以北京城市扩展模拟为例[J].地理学报,2003,58(2)：294-304.
[87]谈明洪,李秀彬,吕昌河.我国城市用地扩张的驱动力分析[J].经济地理,2003,23(5)：635-639.
[88]刘盛和,吴传钧,沈洪泉.基于GIS的北京城市土地利用扩展模式[J].地理学报,2000,55(4)：407-415.
[89]Bastian O, Kronert R,Lipsky Z. Landscape diagnosis on different space and time scales-a challenge for landscape planning.Landscape Ecology,2006,21:359-374
[90]高杨,黄华梅,吴志峰.基于投影寻踪的珠江三角洲景观生态安全评价[J].生态学报,2010,30(21)：5894-5903
[91]谢高地,鲁春霞,冷允法等.青藏高原生态资产的价值评估[J].自然资源学报,2003,18(2)：189-195
[92]孙强,蔡运龙,王乐.基于土地利用类型的绿色空间生态评估—以北京市通州区重点新城为例[J].中国土地科学,2007,21(1)：36-42
[93]汤国安,杨昕Arcgis地理信息空间分析实验教程[M].北京：科学出版社,2006：120-125
[94]孙丹峰.土地利用/覆被遥感分析[M].北京：中国大地出版社,2006：72-73
[95]Moreira E. et al.dnamical coupling of multiscale land change models[J].Landscape Ecol,2009,09:DOI 10.1007/s10980-009-9397-x
[96]郁文,刘茂松,徐驰等.南京市城市景观的特征尺度[J].生态学报,2007,27(4)：1480-1488
[97]张友静,樊恒通.城市植被尺度鉴别与分类研究[J]地理与地理信息科学,2007,23(6)：54-57
[98]赵金,陈曦.土地利用监测适宜尺度选择方法研究—以塔里木河流域为例[J].地理学报,2007,62(6)：659-668
[99]谢江波,刘彤.小波分析方法在心叶驼绒藜空间格局尺度推绎研究中的应用[J].生态学 报,2007,27(7)：2704-2714
[100]邬建国.景观生态学—格局、过程、尺度与等级(第二版)[M].北京：高等教育出版社,2007.p139-140
[101]Kahn J, Wiener A J.The Year 2000:A Framework for Speculation on the Next 33 Years [M].New York:MacMillan Press,1967.
[102]Pearman A D. Scenario construction for transportation planning [J].Transportation Planning and Technology,1988,7:73-85
[103]Ratcliffe J S. Scenario building:A suitable method for strategic property planning?[M].Cambridge:RICS Cutting Edge Conference,1999.
[104]Schoemaker P J H. Scenario planning:[J]. A tool for strategic thinking. Sloan Manage. Rev.1995:25-40.
[105]Ringland G. Scenario planning:Managing for the Future. New York:John Wiley,1998:3-15.
[106]龙瀛,沈振江,毛其智,等.基于约束性CA方法的北京城市形态情景分析[J].地理学报,2010,65(6)：643-655
[107]张永安,田钢.多主体仿真模型的主体行为规则设计研究[J].软科学,2008,22(3)：14-19
[108]田光进,邬建国.基于智能体模型的土地利用动态模拟研究进展[J].生态学报,2008,28(9)：4451-4459
[109]李秀珍,布仁仓,常禹等.景观格局指标对不同景观格局的反应[J].生态学报,2004,24(1)：123-134
[110]陈文波,肖笃宁,李秀珍.景观指数分类、应用及构建研究[J].应用生态学报,2002,13(1)：121-125
[111]申卫军,邬建国,任海等.空间幅度变化对景观格局分析的影响[J].生态学报,2003,23(11)：2219-2231
[112]袁艺,史培军,刘颖慧,等.快速城市化过程中土地覆盖格局研究—以深圳市为例[J].生态学报2003,23(9)：1832-1840
[113]谈文琦,徐建华,岳文泽等.城市景观空间自相关与自相似的尺度特征研究[J].生态学杂志,2005,24(6)：627-630
[114]肖笃宁,李秀珍.景观生态学的学科前沿与发展战略[J].生态学报,2003,23(8)：1615-1621
[115]冷文芳,肖笃宁,李月辉等.通过《Landscape Ecology》杂志看国际景观生态学研究动向[J].生态学杂志,2004.23(5)：140-144.
[116]赵文武,傅伯杰,陈利顶.景观指数的粒度变化效应[J].第四纪研究,2003,23(3)：326-333.
[117]张新时,杨奠安.中国全球变化样带的设置与研究[J].第四纪研究,1995,15(1)：43-52
[118]康慕谊,江源,石瑞香NECT样带1984—1996土地利用变化分析[J].地理科学,2000,20(2)：115-120
[119]龙花楼,李秀彬.区域土地利用转型分析—以长江沿线样带为例[J].自然资源学报,2002,17(2)：144-149
[120]Bradshaw G A, Thomas A Spies. Characterizing canopy gap structure in forests using wavelet analysis[J]. Journal of Ecology,1992,80:205-215.
[121]Monica G, Turner. Spatial and temporal analysis of landscape patterns. Landscape Ecology, 1999,4(1):21-30.
[122]Patrick M. A. James Richard A. Fleming, Identifying significant scale-specific spatial boundaries using wavelets and null models:spruce budworm defoliation in Ontario, Canada as a case study[J]. Marie-Josee Fortin. Landscape Ecol (2010) 25:873-887
[123]孙丹峰IKONOS影像景观格局特征尺度的小波与半方差分析[J].生态学报,2003,23(3)：405-413.
[124]黄桂芳,刘茂松,徐驰等.南京市城区景观特征尺度动态[J].应用生态学报,2008,19(3)：606-612
[125]郁文,刘茂松,徐驰等.南京市城市景观的特征尺度[J].生态学报,2007,27(4)：1480-1488
[126]李俊祥,王玉洁,沈晓虹等.上海市城乡梯度景观格局分析[J].生态学报,2004,24(9)：1973-1980
[127]高艳妮,陈玮,何兴元.基于二维小波分析的景观特征尺度识别[J].应用生态学报,2010,21(6)：1523-1529
[128]陈睿山,蔡运龙.土地变化科学中的尺度问题与解决途径[J].地理研究,2010,29,(7)：1244-1256
[129]梁友嘉,徐中民,钟方雷.基于SD和CLUE-S模型的张掖市甘州区土地利用情景分析[J].地理研究,2011,30,(3)：564-576
[130]张娜.生态学中的尺度问题：内涵与分析方法[J].生态学报,2006,26(7)：2340-2355
[131]傅丽华,谢炳庚,何燕子.基于小波分析长株潭核心区土地利用变化尺度特征研究[J].地理科学,2012,32(1)：60-65
[132]邓楚雄,谢炳庚,李晓青等.基于主成分分析法的湖南省农用地集约利用评价[J].热带地理,2011,31(1)：71-76
[133]陈利顶,傅伯杰等.“源”“汇”景观理论及其生态学意义[J].生态学报,2006,26(5)：1145-1148
[134]Ruth S D, Jonathan A F, Gregory P Asner. Land-use choices:balancing human needs and ecosystem function [J]. Front Ecol. Environ,2004,2 (5):249-257.
[135]Wrbkaa T, Erbb K H, Niels B,Linking pattern and process in cultural landscapes:An empirical study based on spatially explicit indicators [J].Land Use Policy,2004, (21) 289-306.
[136]谢炳庚,等.湿地景观生态学理论和方法研究[M].中南工业大学出版社,1998：9
[137]张秋菊,傅伯杰,陈利顶.关于景观格局演变研究的几个问题[J].地理科学,2003,23(3)：264-270
[138]岳文泽,徐建华,徐丽华等.不同尺度下城市景观综合指数的空间变异特征研究[J].应用生态学报2005,11(16)：2053-2059
[139]甄霖,谢高地,杨丽,成升魁.泾河流域分县景观格局特征及相关性[J].生态学报,2005,25(12)：3343-3353
[140]岳德鹏,王计平,刘永兵等.GIS与RS技术支持下的北京西北地区景观格局优化[J].地理学报,2007,62(11)：1223-1231
[141]David J.B. Baldwin1, Kevin Weaver2, Frank Schnekenburger and Ajith H. Perera. Sensitivity of landscape pattern indices to input data characteristics on real landscapes:implications for their use in natural disturbance emulation[J].Landscape Ecology 2004,19:255-271
[142]徐立,刘少博,刘云国,等.湘中红壤丘陵区土地利用变化对生态系统服务价值的影响-以长沙市为例[J].环境科学学报,2009,29(8)：1788-1792
[143]吴传清.区域经济学原理[M].武汉大学出版社,2008
[144]Leibowitz S G, Loehle C, Li B L, et al. Modeling landscape functions and effects:a network approach. Ecological Modelling[J].2000,132:77-94
[145]Lesta M, Mauring T, Mander U. Estimation of landscape potential for construction of surface-flow wetlands for wastewater treatment in Estonia[J].Environmental Management 2007,40:303-313
[146]Lee S W, Ellis C D, Kweon B S, et al. Relationship between landscape structure and neighborhood satisfaction in urbanized areas[J]. Landscape and Urban Planning 2008, 85(1):60-70
[147]Gustafson E.J. and Parker G.R. Relationships between land cover proportion and indices of landscape spatial pattern[J]. Landscape Ecology,1992,7:101-110.
[148]Griffith J A, Martinko E A, Price K P. Landscape structure analysis of Kansas at three scales[J]. Landscape and Urban Planning,2000,52:45-61.
[149]Alexander B, Jianguo Wu, Corinna G. Multiscale analysis of the urbanization pattern of the Phoenix metropolitan landscape of USA:Time, space and thematic resolution [J].Landscape and Urban Planning (2010) 94:206-217
[150]John N. DiBari. Evaluation of five landscape-level metrics for measuring the effects of urbanization on landscape structure:the case of Tucson, Arizona, USA [J].Landscape and Urban Planning (2007) 79:308-313
[151]David J B, Kevin W, et al. Sensitivity of landscape pattern indices to input data characteristics on real landscapes:implications for their use in natural disturbance emulation [J]. Landscape Ecology,2004,19:255-271,
[152]殷贺,王仰麟等.区域生态风险评价研究进展[J].生态学杂志,2009,28(05)：967-973.
[153]Farina A. Principles and methods in landscapes Ecology[M].London,UK:Published by Chapman & Hall,an imprint of Thomson Science,1998.
[154]Bastian O, Rudolf K, Lipsky Z. Landscape diagnosis on different space and time scales-a challenge for landscape planning[J]. Landscape Ecology,2006,21:359-374
[155]陈利顶,傅伯杰,徐建英等.基于“源-汇”生态过程的景观格局识别方法—景观空间负荷对比指数[J].生态学报,2003,23(11)：2406-2413
[156]吕一河,傅伯杰.生态学中的尺度及尺度转换方法[J].生态学报,2001,21(12)：2097
[157]Graham E J, Hunsaker CT,O'Nell R V. Ecological risk assessment at the regional scale[J].Ecological Application,1991,(1):196-206
[158]曾辉,刘国军.基于景观结构的区域生态风险分析[J].中国环境科学,1999,19(5)：454-457
[159]刘永兵,王衍臻,李海龙等.松嫩草原西部土地利用与生态风险评价—以杜蒙县为例[J].水土保持学报2006,20(5)：151
[160]曾勇.区域生态风险评价—以呼和浩特市区为例[J].生态学报,2010,30(3)：668—670
[161]于婧.基于生态风险分析的耕地质量退化风险评价[J].资源科学,2009,31(2)：330-335
[162]Rodrigues S M, Pereira M E, et al. A review of regulatory decisions for environmental protection:Part Ⅰ -Challenges in the implementation of national soil policies[J].Environment International,2009,35:202-213.
[163]刘纪远.中国资源环境遥感宏观调查与动态研究[M].北京：中国科学技术出版社,1996：7-10.
[164]苏海民,何爱霞.基于RS和地统计学的福州市土地利用分析[J].自然资源学报,2010, 25(1)：322
[165]俞孔坚,王思思,李迪华,李春波.北京市生态安全格局及城市增长预景[J].生态学报,2009,29(3)：1189-1204
[166]王世杰.生态补偿效益、标准—国际经验及对我国的启示[J].地理研究,2010,29(4)：597-606.
[167]W.nscher T, Engel S,Wunder S. Spatial targeting of payments for environmental services:a tool for boosting conservation benefits-Ecological Economics,2008,65(4):822-833-
[168]Dietzel C, Herold M, Hemphill J J,et al.Spatio-temporal dynamics in Californias' central valley:Empirical links to urban theory [J]. International Journal of Geographic Information Science,2005,19(2):175-195.
[169]邱荣旭,李山,吴静.基于Agent建模在旅游模拟研究中的回顾与展望[J].地理与地理信息科学,2009,25(5)：102-107
[170]Randy H Gimblett. Integrating geographic information systems and agent-based modeling techniques for simulating social and ecological processes[J]. New York:Oxford University Press,2002.121-122
[171]Benenson I. Multi-agent simulations of residential dynamics in the city[J]. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems,1998,22(1):25-42.
[172]Ligtenberg A. A design and application of a multi-agent system for simulation of multi-actor spatial planning[J]. Journal of Environmental Management,2004,72:43-55.
[173]孙世岩,刘忠,刘健.复杂适应系统理论与计算机作战模拟[J].计算机仿真,2003,12(20)：20-23.
[174]王涛,陈海,白红英,等.基于Agent建模的农户土地利用行为模拟研究—以陕西省米脂县孟岔村为例[J].自然资源学报,2009,24(12)：2056-2066
[175]薛领,杨开忠,沈体雁.基于agent的建模—地理计算的新发展[J].地球科学进展,2004,19(2)：306-310
[176]田光进,邬建国.基于智能体模型的土地利用动态模拟研究进展[J].生态学报,2008,28(9)：4451-4459
[177]傅丽华.社区参与城郊农业生态旅游开发研究—以株洲市仙庾岭开发为例[J].湖南农业大学学报：社科版,2006,(2)：28-32
[178]周平,蒙吉军.区域生态风险管理研究进展[J].生态学报,2009,29(4)：2102
[179]Winsemius P G U. Responding to the Environmental Challenge[D]. Business Horizons, Indiana University, Graduate School of Business, March-April.1992,35(2):12-20.
[180]刘永,郭怀成.湖泊-流域生态系统管理研究[M].北京：科学出版社,2008
[181]蔡海生,张学玲,黄宏胜.“湖泊-流域”土地生态管理的理念与方法探讨[J].自然资源学报,2010,25(6)
[182]龙花楼.中国农村宅基地转型的理论与证实[J].地理学报,2006,61(10)：1093-1100
[183]陈菁.海峡西岸经济区快速城市化动力机制分析[J].湖南师范大学自然科学学报,2010,33(3)：114
[184]Moreira E.et al.Dynamical coupling of multiscale land change models [J].Landscape Ecol, 2009,09
[185]陈百明,张凤荣.我国土地利用研究的发展态势与重点领域[J].地理研究,2011,30(1)：1-9
[186]余强毅,吴文斌,唐华俊等.复杂系统理论与Agent模型在土地变化科学中的研究进展[J].地理学报,2011,66(11)：1518-1530