中国PPP项目风险公平分担
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摘要
PPP(公私合营,Public-Private Partnership)模式能够减轻政府财政压力、满足公共基础设施建设和提高投资管理效率。但政府和投资企业在风险分担和收益分配等方面要求不同,谈判过程旷日持久。很多时候某一方由于双方地位的不平等和对项目建设的紧迫性等原因被迫接受对方要求,却在实施中因为承诺不能兑现或发生其它风险而出现争议,以至国内目前只有少量PPP项目能正常运行。在基础设施建设压力巨大的中国,因此迫切需要建立一套合理的PPP项目风险公平分担机制,以提高私营资本投资基础设施建设的效率。
论文首先通过文献综述和案例分析等方式,识别出分担不明确但值得探讨的符合中国特定环境的重要风险作为研究对象。最终确定的风险共有37个,包括14个国家级风险、7个市场级风险和16个项目级风险,涵盖了中国以往失败PPP项目中导致项目损失的重要风险、以往关于中国PPP项目风险研究中风险分担不明确的风险和现有可参考的风险分担方案中分担不统一的风险。
论文其次通过两轮的德尔菲调研,调查中国PPP项目风险的重要性和合理分担。结果表明,所选取风险的危害程度要比发生概率大得多,国家级风险和市场级风险的重要性要比项目级风险大得多,可以说明中国正处于PPP发展的阶段,相关的法律和经济体制都尚未成熟。此外,国家级风险偏向于由政府承担,市场级风险偏向于双方共担,而项目级风险偏向于私营部门承担。
论文最后通过面对面访谈,搜集了以往38个PPP项目的实际风险分担,并将其与德尔菲调研所得风险分担偏好进行对比分析。结果表明实际案例的风险分担与分担偏好的差异度和项目成功度之间具有显著性的相关性,差异度越小,项目成功度则越大,一定程度上可以证明风险偏好的合理性和公平性。通过对比分析所有行业和单一行业的实际风险分担和风险分担偏好,得出了一般情况和具体行业的合理风险公平分担建议。通过对比分析单一项目的实际风险分担和风险分担偏好,识别了实际操作中影响风险分担的具体准则/因素,在此基础上构造了一个风险分担调整机制。此外,为了提高结论的可应用性,论文提出了风险公平分担的合同组织建议。
Public-Private Partnership (PPP) financing modality has the ability of alleviating the budgetary pressure to the government, fulfilling the need of infrastructure development, and improving the efficiency of investment and operation. However, the negotiations between the government and the investors are time-consuming and costly, due to the persperctive differences in risk allocation and revenue distribution. Disputes often arise during concession period because of changes in various risks or non-performance of its obligations, especially when one sector was forced to accept the requirements by the other as a result of the unequal status, the project urgency or other reasons. Only a few PPP projects in China could perform successfully. There is therefore a need to develop an equitable risk allocation mechanism for the delivery of PPP projects in China so as to improve the efficiency of private investment in infrastructure development.
A risk register of fourteen country level risks, seven market level risks and sixteen project level risks was firstly identified and adopted to explore the equitable risk allocation. The main characteristic of the identified risks is their significance to the project success but unclear allocation preferences. These risks thus included principal risks encountered in the Chinese past PPP projects, risks with varied views regarding their preferred allocations in the previous relative surveys, and risks with different allocation suggestions in those existing foreign risk allocation schemes.
A two-round Delphi survey was conducted to analyze the risks, their relative importance and preferred allocations for PPP projects in China. An observation which can be made from the mean calculation is that most risks were rated higher for the consequence compared to those for the probability. The significance scores of country level and market level risks are much greater than those of project level risks. This observation may reflected that the Chinese PPP market is currently under development with unmature legal and economic systems. The results also show that the public sector would take the majority of responsibility for country level risks, the private sector would take the majority of responsibility for project level risks, and risks at market level are preferred to be shared equally.
A comparative analysis of preferred allocations from Delphi survey and actual allocations from thirty-eight past PPP projects collected by a round of face to face interviews was then carried out. The results show that there is a significantly negative relationship between the project performance and the diversity between actual and preferred allocations, which yet again reinforces the rationale of risk preferred allocations. By comparing the actual and preferred allocations in all sectors and each sector, this dissertation proposed an equitable risk allocation scheme for both all sectors and each specific sector. Influencing factors for risk allocation were then identified and formed into an allocation adjustment framework by comparing the actual and preferred allocations in each project. In order to improve the applicability of the findings, recommendations on commercial principles and contract terms between the public authorities and private consortia are also provided.
论文首先通过文献综述和案例分析等方式,识别出分担不明确但值得探讨的符合中国特定环境的重要风险作为研究对象。最终确定的风险共有37个,包括14个国家级风险、7个市场级风险和16个项目级风险,涵盖了中国以往失败PPP项目中导致项目损失的重要风险、以往关于中国PPP项目风险研究中风险分担不明确的风险和现有可参考的风险分担方案中分担不统一的风险。
论文其次通过两轮的德尔菲调研,调查中国PPP项目风险的重要性和合理分担。结果表明,所选取风险的危害程度要比发生概率大得多,国家级风险和市场级风险的重要性要比项目级风险大得多,可以说明中国正处于PPP发展的阶段,相关的法律和经济体制都尚未成熟。此外,国家级风险偏向于由政府承担,市场级风险偏向于双方共担,而项目级风险偏向于私营部门承担。
论文最后通过面对面访谈,搜集了以往38个PPP项目的实际风险分担,并将其与德尔菲调研所得风险分担偏好进行对比分析。结果表明实际案例的风险分担与分担偏好的差异度和项目成功度之间具有显著性的相关性,差异度越小,项目成功度则越大,一定程度上可以证明风险偏好的合理性和公平性。通过对比分析所有行业和单一行业的实际风险分担和风险分担偏好,得出了一般情况和具体行业的合理风险公平分担建议。通过对比分析单一项目的实际风险分担和风险分担偏好,识别了实际操作中影响风险分担的具体准则/因素,在此基础上构造了一个风险分担调整机制。此外,为了提高结论的可应用性,论文提出了风险公平分担的合同组织建议。
Public-Private Partnership (PPP) financing modality has the ability of alleviating the budgetary pressure to the government, fulfilling the need of infrastructure development, and improving the efficiency of investment and operation. However, the negotiations between the government and the investors are time-consuming and costly, due to the persperctive differences in risk allocation and revenue distribution. Disputes often arise during concession period because of changes in various risks or non-performance of its obligations, especially when one sector was forced to accept the requirements by the other as a result of the unequal status, the project urgency or other reasons. Only a few PPP projects in China could perform successfully. There is therefore a need to develop an equitable risk allocation mechanism for the delivery of PPP projects in China so as to improve the efficiency of private investment in infrastructure development.
A risk register of fourteen country level risks, seven market level risks and sixteen project level risks was firstly identified and adopted to explore the equitable risk allocation. The main characteristic of the identified risks is their significance to the project success but unclear allocation preferences. These risks thus included principal risks encountered in the Chinese past PPP projects, risks with varied views regarding their preferred allocations in the previous relative surveys, and risks with different allocation suggestions in those existing foreign risk allocation schemes.
A two-round Delphi survey was conducted to analyze the risks, their relative importance and preferred allocations for PPP projects in China. An observation which can be made from the mean calculation is that most risks were rated higher for the consequence compared to those for the probability. The significance scores of country level and market level risks are much greater than those of project level risks. This observation may reflected that the Chinese PPP market is currently under development with unmature legal and economic systems. The results also show that the public sector would take the majority of responsibility for country level risks, the private sector would take the majority of responsibility for project level risks, and risks at market level are preferred to be shared equally.
A comparative analysis of preferred allocations from Delphi survey and actual allocations from thirty-eight past PPP projects collected by a round of face to face interviews was then carried out. The results show that there is a significantly negative relationship between the project performance and the diversity between actual and preferred allocations, which yet again reinforces the rationale of risk preferred allocations. By comparing the actual and preferred allocations in all sectors and each sector, this dissertation proposed an equitable risk allocation scheme for both all sectors and each specific sector. Influencing factors for risk allocation were then identified and formed into an allocation adjustment framework by comparing the actual and preferred allocations in each project. In order to improve the applicability of the findings, recommendations on commercial principles and contract terms between the public authorities and private consortia are also provided.
引文
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