城市轨道交通PPP建设模式风险分担研究
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摘要
在城市轨道交通PPP项目的建设中,风险分担是项目双方争议的焦点,争议的实质是双方对城市轨道交通PPP项目各项关键风险因素认知不同,并认为承担的风险不能真实反映在各自补偿收益上。而这些都与PPP双方的风险分担相关研究不完善有关。
本研究基于风险分担视角,对影响城市轨道交通PPP项目的风险因素进行系统性研究,利用风险分析理论中的工作结构分解法、德尔菲法和因果图法等识别了影响城市轨道交通PPP项目的风险因素,分析出了其中的关键风险因素;在建立了影响风险分担的理论模型和城市轨道交通PPP项目的风险分担框架后,在其规定下并以“效率优先”为准则对关键风险因素进行了风险分担,研究得到了关键风险因素分担矩阵。
同时,本文还系统地介绍了PPP模式发展相关内容,并对国内外PPP项目的风险管理现状进行较深入的分析,在此基础上提出研究现状的不足,然后概括地分析了城市轨道交通的基本特征,并针对其采用PPP建设模式的适用性问题展开研究。随后,经过研究完善了风险分担的定义,总结了风险分担的既有理论和既有研究模型,并尝试通过分担效果的界定与影响因素的分析,来构建全新的城市轨道交通PPP项目风险分担理论模型,并同时提出基于风险初次分担与再分担联动的风险分担机制。在此之后,本文又将理论拓展到工程实践,阐述了在实际的城市轨道交通PPP项目中该如何识别风险,分担风险,通过简要介绍各种通用合同文本与各地方政府对风险分担的规定,提出在项目生命周期的不同阶段,城市轨道交通PPP项目的风险分担框架和具体分担安排。最后,本文引入深圳地铁5号线的PPP风险分担案例作为实证分析,较为全面地介绍了其面临的主要困难、采取的应对措施、相应的风险分担机制、实施过程以及风险分担结果,验证了前述城市轨道交通PPP项目风险分担的理论与机制的研究结果。
Risk allocation is the core issue for both negotiators in PPP project concerning urbanrail transit construction，and the essence is the different cognitive towards key riskfactors in the whole project life cycle, as well as the shared risks cannot really reflecton the total income obtained. All these concerns have something to do with thedeficient research on risk allocation for PPP parties, which make our topic necessary.This thesis systematically studies on risk factors which influence the PPP project inthe urban rail transit construction. The paper adopts approaches for risk identificationsuch as WBS, Delphi method, cause and effect diagram, check sheet approach and soon, identifying key risk factors which influence the whole project; then the thesisestablishes the risk allocation theoretical model and distribution framework for urbanrail transit construction with PPP mode. Based on the works above, risk allocation isconducted under the criterion- Efficiency Priority, with the key risk factors allocationmatrix followed.
At the same time, Firstly, this thesis presents an over-all introduction about PPP modedevelopment, analyzes risk management and control situations at home and abroadand points out the current research limitations. Secondly, it summarizes the basicfeatures of rail transit construction and unfolds mainly research on applicability ofPPP construction mode; Thirdly, the comprehensive definition, existing theories andexisting models of risk allocation are provided, then the thesis tries to build novel riskallocation model for urban rail transit construction according to analysis of riskallocation effect and impact factors; Finally, it propose the allocation mechanismbased on risk allocating and re-allocating linkage.
Subsequently, this thesis analyzes the PPP project-No.5 subway in Shenzhen,including the sharing of key risks and so on, Since then，this thesis in turn extends tothe engineering practice，expounding to the actual projects of PPP mode in urban railtransit construction about how to identify risks and risk allocation, by brieflyintroducing a variety of general contract and different regulation by local governmentabout risk allocation, it proposes risk allocation framework and specification due todifferent stages in the whole project life cycle.
At last, this thesis introduce a risk allocation case of No 5 subway in Shenzhen, taking a comprehensive introduction with the main difficulty, responsible measures, riskallocation mechanisms, implementation process and the results of risk allocation. Thetheory and mechanism of risk allocation of PPP mode in urban rail transit constructionare certified.
本研究基于风险分担视角,对影响城市轨道交通PPP项目的风险因素进行系统性研究,利用风险分析理论中的工作结构分解法、德尔菲法和因果图法等识别了影响城市轨道交通PPP项目的风险因素,分析出了其中的关键风险因素;在建立了影响风险分担的理论模型和城市轨道交通PPP项目的风险分担框架后,在其规定下并以“效率优先”为准则对关键风险因素进行了风险分担,研究得到了关键风险因素分担矩阵。
同时,本文还系统地介绍了PPP模式发展相关内容,并对国内外PPP项目的风险管理现状进行较深入的分析,在此基础上提出研究现状的不足,然后概括地分析了城市轨道交通的基本特征,并针对其采用PPP建设模式的适用性问题展开研究。随后,经过研究完善了风险分担的定义,总结了风险分担的既有理论和既有研究模型,并尝试通过分担效果的界定与影响因素的分析,来构建全新的城市轨道交通PPP项目风险分担理论模型,并同时提出基于风险初次分担与再分担联动的风险分担机制。在此之后,本文又将理论拓展到工程实践,阐述了在实际的城市轨道交通PPP项目中该如何识别风险,分担风险,通过简要介绍各种通用合同文本与各地方政府对风险分担的规定,提出在项目生命周期的不同阶段,城市轨道交通PPP项目的风险分担框架和具体分担安排。最后,本文引入深圳地铁5号线的PPP风险分担案例作为实证分析,较为全面地介绍了其面临的主要困难、采取的应对措施、相应的风险分担机制、实施过程以及风险分担结果,验证了前述城市轨道交通PPP项目风险分担的理论与机制的研究结果。
Risk allocation is the core issue for both negotiators in PPP project concerning urbanrail transit construction，and the essence is the different cognitive towards key riskfactors in the whole project life cycle, as well as the shared risks cannot really reflecton the total income obtained. All these concerns have something to do with thedeficient research on risk allocation for PPP parties, which make our topic necessary.This thesis systematically studies on risk factors which influence the PPP project inthe urban rail transit construction. The paper adopts approaches for risk identificationsuch as WBS, Delphi method, cause and effect diagram, check sheet approach and soon, identifying key risk factors which influence the whole project; then the thesisestablishes the risk allocation theoretical model and distribution framework for urbanrail transit construction with PPP mode. Based on the works above, risk allocation isconducted under the criterion- Efficiency Priority, with the key risk factors allocationmatrix followed.
At the same time, Firstly, this thesis presents an over-all introduction about PPP modedevelopment, analyzes risk management and control situations at home and abroadand points out the current research limitations. Secondly, it summarizes the basicfeatures of rail transit construction and unfolds mainly research on applicability ofPPP construction mode; Thirdly, the comprehensive definition, existing theories andexisting models of risk allocation are provided, then the thesis tries to build novel riskallocation model for urban rail transit construction according to analysis of riskallocation effect and impact factors; Finally, it propose the allocation mechanismbased on risk allocating and re-allocating linkage.
Subsequently, this thesis analyzes the PPP project-No.5 subway in Shenzhen,including the sharing of key risks and so on, Since then，this thesis in turn extends tothe engineering practice，expounding to the actual projects of PPP mode in urban railtransit construction about how to identify risks and risk allocation, by brieflyintroducing a variety of general contract and different regulation by local governmentabout risk allocation, it proposes risk allocation framework and specification due todifferent stages in the whole project life cycle.
At last, this thesis introduce a risk allocation case of No 5 subway in Shenzhen, taking a comprehensive introduction with the main difficulty, responsible measures, riskallocation mechanisms, implementation process and the results of risk allocation. Thetheory and mechanism of risk allocation of PPP mode in urban rail transit constructionare certified.
引文
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