雅鲁藏布江流域关键水文要素时空变化规律研究
|
摘要
雅鲁藏布江地处青藏高原腹地,受特殊的地形特点及高原高海拔的影响,流域空气稀薄、辐射强、气压低。因此,雅鲁藏布江流域对全球气候变化极其敏感和脆弱。雅鲁藏布江流域作为西藏最重要的经济区,其径流变化必将对青藏高原及其周围地区国民经济及人民生活带来重大的影响。因此,在全球气候变化的大背景下,研究青藏高原的水资源变化特征及其对全球气候变化的响应,有助于深入了解高寒地区水循环与水资源演变规律,对维持流域内的水土资源平衡有深远意义,同时亦对分析水资源开发利用中存在的问题、合理开发利用雅鲁藏布江流域的水资源有重要的现实意义和长远的指导意义。
本文选择雅鲁藏布江流域作为研究区,通过对各气候因素、径流时空变化规律、土地利用／土地覆被变化的时空格局变化进行分析,并探讨了降水、气温、蒸散发等气候因子和LUCC等驱动因素对径流的影响。通过研究,得出了以下主要成果和结论：
(1)流域1960-2009年年平均气温具有显著的上升趋势,升温趋势随海拔升高而增大的特点。此外,流域最低气温倾向率远远高于最高气温倾向率,最低气温上升的速率约为最高气温的2倍,表明青藏高原变暖主要是发生在夜间。流域多年平均气温总的分布趋势与地形大致吻合,具有从东南向西北递减的趋势。嘉黎为升温幅度最小地区,升温幅度为0.18-0.20℃/10a；拉萨为升温幅度最大区域,为0.55-0.58℃/10a。对流域平均气温时间序列进行突变检验,发现雅鲁藏布江流域平均气温序列先后于1987年和1997年发生气候突变,197年出现流域气温增暖突变信号,1997年出现气温快速增暖突变信号。
(2)1960-2009年流域年降水呈上升的趋势,但趋势不显著,流域降水变化呈现复杂性。降水量空间分布趋势由东南向西北递减,与流域平均气温变化趋势一致。整个流域以波密为中心,降水量倾向率向外逐渐递减。波密为降水增多幅度最大区,河源区为降水减少幅度最明显区域。与流域平均气温突变的信号相比,降水变化的信号明显比平均温度的信号弱。经进一步分析认为,雅鲁藏布江流域降水量序列在缓慢上升过程中,于1982年和于1995年发生了2次突变,并经历了减少、增多和再次减少的3个阶段。
(3)流域降水与气温具有协变性。利用标准化处理后气温、降水变化趋势Z值的乘积来描述两变量同步变化趋势显著的区域。结果发现,在年尺度上,流域中游大多数地区呈暖湿化趋势；干季尺度上,流域多呈暖湿化态势；雨季时,流域由于降水变化的空间分异性,气温、降水变化Z值的乘积分布很均匀,总体上流域以暖干倾向为王。
(4)蒸散发具有明显的年内分配特征,年内变化呈双峰型。流域多年平均潜在蒸散发从东南向西北呈递增趋势,即从流域上游向下游递减趋势。对27个站点蒸散发的年序列进行了线性拟合并进行显著性检验分析,流域蒸散发减小具有普遍性,流域年ET0、干季ET0、雨季ET0分别以0.949mm/a、0.546mm/a、0.403mm/a的速率减小,流域年潜在蒸散发变化受干季、雨季共同作用影响。通过多元回归、K-means分类、偏相关分析,认为风速是雅鲁藏布江流域潜在蒸散发变化的主导性因子。
(5)通过对流域天然径流进行线性拟合可知,雅鲁藏布江径流量总体上呈现减少的趋势,但趋势不是很显著。径流的代际变化存在一定的周期性波动,年内分配极不平衡。通过对径流进行M-K法突变检验得知雅鲁藏布江径流在70年代初期发生突变。经小波分析发现雅鲁藏布江干流4个水文站具有相同的周期性,4个水文站第一主要周期为19-20a,第二主要周期为5-6a。
(6)流域土地利用主要类型以草地为主,其次是未利用地和林地,这三类面积的总和达到94%。采用土地利用动态度、土地利用转移矩阵等方法分析LUCC特征,结果表明10多年来流域土地利用变化速度很缓慢,属青藏稳定少动区。土地利用转换特征为：林地增加最为显著,其次是草地和水域减少,再次是建设用地的增加和耕地的减少。土地利用的转换方向为：草地、水域、未利用地向林地转化,耕地、草地向建设用地转化。
(7)对流域径流影响因素分析表明：气温、降水的变化是影响雅鲁藏布江天然径流变化最直接的影响因素。降水变化是雅鲁藏布江天然径流最主要的影响因子,降水变化在一定程度上控制着河川径流的演变规律。另外,气温上升、蒸发量增大、冰川退缩也在一定程度上影响径流的演变。流域林地、裸岩石砾地及建设用地面积增加,在一定程度上促进径流的增长作用,但流域发生土地利用类型转换的面积相对较小,因而产生的水文效应相对较小
Yarlung Zangbo River is located in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The basin is extremely sensitive and fragile to the global climate change, due to the impact of special topographical features and high altitude plateau. As the Tibet's most important economic region, the runoff change of Yarlung Zangbo River basin has a significant impact on the national economy around and people's lives. Thus, in the global context of climate change, the study of water resources change characters and its response to the global climate change in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau will provide insights into the water circulation and the evolution law of water resources in the alpine area, has deep significance for the maintenance of water and land resources balance, but also has practical significance and long-term significance for the rational exploitation of water resources in the Yarlung Zangbo River basin.
Choosing the Yarlung Zangbo River basin as the study area, through the analysis of hydrological elements change law and spatial and temporal patterns change of the land use/land over, in the paper, the impact of climatic factors such as the precipitation, temperature, evaporation and driver factor of LUCC on the runoff is discussed. The main results and conclusions of the study are drawn as follows:
(1)The annual mean temperature of 1960-2009 in the Yarlung Zangbo River basin had a significant upward trend, which increased with the ascent of the altitude. In addition, the minimum temperature tendency rate was much higher than the maximum one, and the rising rate of minimum temperature was about two times more than the maximum one. It showed that the warming of temperature occurred mainly at night in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The general distribution trend of annual mean temperature in the Yarlung Zangbo River basin was approximately fit for the terrain, with a decreasing trend from southeast to northwest. Jiali was the smallest temperature boost area with the range of 0.18-0.20℃/10a. Lhasa was the largest temperature boost region with the range of 0.55-0.58℃/10a. Mutation testing for mean temperature time series of the basin showed that the abrupt change points of mean temperature series emerged in 1987 and 1997.
(2)The annual precipitation of 1960-2009 in the basin had an upward trend, but not significant, and the precipitation change showed complex. The trend of precipitation spatial distribution was decreasing from southeast to northwest which was similar with the mean temperature change of the basin. With the center of Bomi, the precipitation tendency rate of the basin had a gradually decreasing outward trend. Bomi was the area with the largest increase range of precipitation, while Heyuan was the area with the most obvious decrease range of precipitation. Compared with the mean temperature mutation signals, precipitation in the basin was obviously weaker. After further analysis, it was shown that the precipitation of the Yarlung Zangbo River basin was in the process of slow rising with two mutations in 1982 and in 1995, and experienced three stages of decrease, increase and decrease again.
(3)The precipitation was covariant with the temperature. Use the product of temperature and precipitation change trends Z values after standardization to describe the regions where the two variables had significant simultaneous change trend. It was shown that, the middle reach of the basin had a warm and wet in the annual scale. In the dry season scale, when the basin had a trend of warm and wet monsoon, the product distribution of temperature and precipitation change Z Values was even and with a main warm-dry trend as a whole, due to the spatial distribution difference of precipitation.
(4) ETo has obvious characteristics of annual distribution, changes of a year showing a double peak.The mean ET0 of the basin was increasing from southeast to northwest trend. It also means the ET0 was decreasing from upstream to downstream. ET0 was in a universal decreases trend, with the reduced rate of 0.949mm/a for ET0(year),0.546mm/a for ET0(dry season) and 0.403mm/a for ET0(rainy),by the method of linear fitting for the ET0 of the 27 sites and significance tests. That was mainly to say, ETo(year) changes were impacted by the joint function of ETo(dry season) and ETo(rainy).By the analysis of multiple regression, K-means classification and partial correlation, a conclusion that the wind speed was the dominant factor for ET0 changes in the Yarlung Zangbo River basin was taken.
(5)After the linear fit of natural runoff in the basin, it was shown that there was a decreasing trend as a whole in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin, but not obvious. Decadal variation of runoff had cyclical fluctuations, and the annual distribution was extremely imbalance. Through the Mann-Kendall mutation, it was found that, there was a mutation in the early 1970s.The wavelet analysis showed that the four hydrological stations of Yarlung Zangbo River main stream had the same periodicity, the first main period of 19-20a, the second main period of 5-6a.
(6) The main types of land use in the basin was grass, secondly unused land and forest land, and the sum areas of these three types reached 94%. Land use dynamic degree and land use transfer matrix were adopted to analyze the characters of LUCC, and it was shown that the land use changed relatively slowly in the past 10 years and the area belonged to the stable Qinghai-Tibet region. Land use types were characterized by transformation from grassland, water area and barren land to forest land, from arable land to construction land. The most significant conversion was the increase of woodland, secondly the reduction of grassland and water area, thirdly the increase of construction land and the decrease of arable land.
(7)Through the analysis of the runoff affecting factors, it was shown that the changes of temperature and precipitation were the most direct factors affecting the natural runoff of the Yarlung Zangbo River. Precipitation change was the most important factor of the natural runoff, controlled the evolution of river runoff to a certain degree. In addition, the rising of temperature, increasing of evaporation and retreating of glacier affected the evolution of runoff to a certain extent. The increase of forest, barren lands and construction land area promoted the growth of runoff, but the hydrological effect was relatively small, resulting from the small conversation area of land use.
本文选择雅鲁藏布江流域作为研究区,通过对各气候因素、径流时空变化规律、土地利用／土地覆被变化的时空格局变化进行分析,并探讨了降水、气温、蒸散发等气候因子和LUCC等驱动因素对径流的影响。通过研究,得出了以下主要成果和结论：
(1)流域1960-2009年年平均气温具有显著的上升趋势,升温趋势随海拔升高而增大的特点。此外,流域最低气温倾向率远远高于最高气温倾向率,最低气温上升的速率约为最高气温的2倍,表明青藏高原变暖主要是发生在夜间。流域多年平均气温总的分布趋势与地形大致吻合,具有从东南向西北递减的趋势。嘉黎为升温幅度最小地区,升温幅度为0.18-0.20℃/10a；拉萨为升温幅度最大区域,为0.55-0.58℃/10a。对流域平均气温时间序列进行突变检验,发现雅鲁藏布江流域平均气温序列先后于1987年和1997年发生气候突变,197年出现流域气温增暖突变信号,1997年出现气温快速增暖突变信号。
(2)1960-2009年流域年降水呈上升的趋势,但趋势不显著,流域降水变化呈现复杂性。降水量空间分布趋势由东南向西北递减,与流域平均气温变化趋势一致。整个流域以波密为中心,降水量倾向率向外逐渐递减。波密为降水增多幅度最大区,河源区为降水减少幅度最明显区域。与流域平均气温突变的信号相比,降水变化的信号明显比平均温度的信号弱。经进一步分析认为,雅鲁藏布江流域降水量序列在缓慢上升过程中,于1982年和于1995年发生了2次突变,并经历了减少、增多和再次减少的3个阶段。
(3)流域降水与气温具有协变性。利用标准化处理后气温、降水变化趋势Z值的乘积来描述两变量同步变化趋势显著的区域。结果发现,在年尺度上,流域中游大多数地区呈暖湿化趋势；干季尺度上,流域多呈暖湿化态势；雨季时,流域由于降水变化的空间分异性,气温、降水变化Z值的乘积分布很均匀,总体上流域以暖干倾向为王。
(4)蒸散发具有明显的年内分配特征,年内变化呈双峰型。流域多年平均潜在蒸散发从东南向西北呈递增趋势,即从流域上游向下游递减趋势。对27个站点蒸散发的年序列进行了线性拟合并进行显著性检验分析,流域蒸散发减小具有普遍性,流域年ET0、干季ET0、雨季ET0分别以0.949mm/a、0.546mm/a、0.403mm/a的速率减小,流域年潜在蒸散发变化受干季、雨季共同作用影响。通过多元回归、K-means分类、偏相关分析,认为风速是雅鲁藏布江流域潜在蒸散发变化的主导性因子。
(5)通过对流域天然径流进行线性拟合可知,雅鲁藏布江径流量总体上呈现减少的趋势,但趋势不是很显著。径流的代际变化存在一定的周期性波动,年内分配极不平衡。通过对径流进行M-K法突变检验得知雅鲁藏布江径流在70年代初期发生突变。经小波分析发现雅鲁藏布江干流4个水文站具有相同的周期性,4个水文站第一主要周期为19-20a,第二主要周期为5-6a。
(6)流域土地利用主要类型以草地为主,其次是未利用地和林地,这三类面积的总和达到94%。采用土地利用动态度、土地利用转移矩阵等方法分析LUCC特征,结果表明10多年来流域土地利用变化速度很缓慢,属青藏稳定少动区。土地利用转换特征为：林地增加最为显著,其次是草地和水域减少,再次是建设用地的增加和耕地的减少。土地利用的转换方向为：草地、水域、未利用地向林地转化,耕地、草地向建设用地转化。
(7)对流域径流影响因素分析表明：气温、降水的变化是影响雅鲁藏布江天然径流变化最直接的影响因素。降水变化是雅鲁藏布江天然径流最主要的影响因子,降水变化在一定程度上控制着河川径流的演变规律。另外,气温上升、蒸发量增大、冰川退缩也在一定程度上影响径流的演变。流域林地、裸岩石砾地及建设用地面积增加,在一定程度上促进径流的增长作用,但流域发生土地利用类型转换的面积相对较小,因而产生的水文效应相对较小
Yarlung Zangbo River is located in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The basin is extremely sensitive and fragile to the global climate change, due to the impact of special topographical features and high altitude plateau. As the Tibet's most important economic region, the runoff change of Yarlung Zangbo River basin has a significant impact on the national economy around and people's lives. Thus, in the global context of climate change, the study of water resources change characters and its response to the global climate change in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau will provide insights into the water circulation and the evolution law of water resources in the alpine area, has deep significance for the maintenance of water and land resources balance, but also has practical significance and long-term significance for the rational exploitation of water resources in the Yarlung Zangbo River basin.
Choosing the Yarlung Zangbo River basin as the study area, through the analysis of hydrological elements change law and spatial and temporal patterns change of the land use/land over, in the paper, the impact of climatic factors such as the precipitation, temperature, evaporation and driver factor of LUCC on the runoff is discussed. The main results and conclusions of the study are drawn as follows:
(1)The annual mean temperature of 1960-2009 in the Yarlung Zangbo River basin had a significant upward trend, which increased with the ascent of the altitude. In addition, the minimum temperature tendency rate was much higher than the maximum one, and the rising rate of minimum temperature was about two times more than the maximum one. It showed that the warming of temperature occurred mainly at night in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The general distribution trend of annual mean temperature in the Yarlung Zangbo River basin was approximately fit for the terrain, with a decreasing trend from southeast to northwest. Jiali was the smallest temperature boost area with the range of 0.18-0.20℃/10a. Lhasa was the largest temperature boost region with the range of 0.55-0.58℃/10a. Mutation testing for mean temperature time series of the basin showed that the abrupt change points of mean temperature series emerged in 1987 and 1997.
(2)The annual precipitation of 1960-2009 in the basin had an upward trend, but not significant, and the precipitation change showed complex. The trend of precipitation spatial distribution was decreasing from southeast to northwest which was similar with the mean temperature change of the basin. With the center of Bomi, the precipitation tendency rate of the basin had a gradually decreasing outward trend. Bomi was the area with the largest increase range of precipitation, while Heyuan was the area with the most obvious decrease range of precipitation. Compared with the mean temperature mutation signals, precipitation in the basin was obviously weaker. After further analysis, it was shown that the precipitation of the Yarlung Zangbo River basin was in the process of slow rising with two mutations in 1982 and in 1995, and experienced three stages of decrease, increase and decrease again.
(3)The precipitation was covariant with the temperature. Use the product of temperature and precipitation change trends Z values after standardization to describe the regions where the two variables had significant simultaneous change trend. It was shown that, the middle reach of the basin had a warm and wet in the annual scale. In the dry season scale, when the basin had a trend of warm and wet monsoon, the product distribution of temperature and precipitation change Z Values was even and with a main warm-dry trend as a whole, due to the spatial distribution difference of precipitation.
(4) ETo has obvious characteristics of annual distribution, changes of a year showing a double peak.The mean ET0 of the basin was increasing from southeast to northwest trend. It also means the ET0 was decreasing from upstream to downstream. ET0 was in a universal decreases trend, with the reduced rate of 0.949mm/a for ET0(year),0.546mm/a for ET0(dry season) and 0.403mm/a for ET0(rainy),by the method of linear fitting for the ET0 of the 27 sites and significance tests. That was mainly to say, ETo(year) changes were impacted by the joint function of ETo(dry season) and ETo(rainy).By the analysis of multiple regression, K-means classification and partial correlation, a conclusion that the wind speed was the dominant factor for ET0 changes in the Yarlung Zangbo River basin was taken.
(5)After the linear fit of natural runoff in the basin, it was shown that there was a decreasing trend as a whole in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin, but not obvious. Decadal variation of runoff had cyclical fluctuations, and the annual distribution was extremely imbalance. Through the Mann-Kendall mutation, it was found that, there was a mutation in the early 1970s.The wavelet analysis showed that the four hydrological stations of Yarlung Zangbo River main stream had the same periodicity, the first main period of 19-20a, the second main period of 5-6a.
(6) The main types of land use in the basin was grass, secondly unused land and forest land, and the sum areas of these three types reached 94%. Land use dynamic degree and land use transfer matrix were adopted to analyze the characters of LUCC, and it was shown that the land use changed relatively slowly in the past 10 years and the area belonged to the stable Qinghai-Tibet region. Land use types were characterized by transformation from grassland, water area and barren land to forest land, from arable land to construction land. The most significant conversion was the increase of woodland, secondly the reduction of grassland and water area, thirdly the increase of construction land and the decrease of arable land.
(7)Through the analysis of the runoff affecting factors, it was shown that the changes of temperature and precipitation were the most direct factors affecting the natural runoff of the Yarlung Zangbo River. Precipitation change was the most important factor of the natural runoff, controlled the evolution of river runoff to a certain degree. In addition, the rising of temperature, increasing of evaporation and retreating of glacier affected the evolution of runoff to a certain extent. The increase of forest, barren lands and construction land area promoted the growth of runoff, but the hydrological effect was relatively small, resulting from the small conversation area of land use.
引文
[1].蔡晓布,钱成,黄界.雅鲁藏布江中游地区水土流失及其防治对策[J].水土保持通报.1996,16(6)：48-53.
[2].蔡新玲,孙娴,乔秋文,等.气候变化对汉江上游径流的影响[J].气候变化研究进展.2008,4(4).
[3].蔡英,李栋梁,汤懋苍,等.青藏高原近50年来气温的年代际变化[J].高原气象.2003,22(5)：464-470.
[4].蔡英.青藏高原气候的年代际变化[D].兰州：中国科学院兰州高原大气物理研究所.1998,22-45.
[5].陈多,张镱锂,郑度.拉萨地区土地利用变化情景分析[J].地理研究.2005,24(6)：869-877.
[6].陈军锋,李秀彬.森林植被变化对流域水文影响的争论[J].自然资源学报,2001,16(5)：474-480.
[7].陈军锋,张明.梭磨河流域气候波动和土地覆被变化对径流影响的模拟[J].地理研究,2003,22(1)：73-78.
[8].陈利顶,傅伯杰.黄河三角洲地区人类活动对景观结构的影响分析-以山东省东营市为例[J1.生态学报.1996,(4)：337-344.
[9].陈隆勋,周秀骥,李维亮.中国近80年来气候变化特征及其形成机制[J].气象学报,2004,62(5)：634-646.
[10].陈隆勋,朱文琴,王文,等.中国近45年来气候变化的研究.气象学报[J],1998,56(3)：257-271.
[11].戴加洗.青藏高原气候[M].北京：气象出版社,1990.
[12].戴露.雅鲁藏布江中游段径流预测研究[D].成都：四川大学.2006
[13].单菊萍.基于DEM的雅鲁藏布江河流地貌特征的研究[D].北京：中国地质大学.2007
[14].党永红,李旭辉.应用ArcGIS提取景观生态学评价方法中Rf参数的方法[EB/OL].http://www.hwcc.com.cn/pub/hwcc/wwgj/bgqy/hhpd/200905/t20090531_213538.html.20 09-05-31.
[15].邓慧平,李秀彬,陈军锋,等.流域土地覆被变化水文效应的模拟-以长江上游源头梭磨河为例[J].地理学报.2003,58(1)：53-62.
[16].丁晶,邓育仁.随机水文学[M].成都：成都科技大学出版社,1988.
[17].丁一汇,马爱民.全球气候变化-人类面临的挑战[M].北京：商务印书馆,2004,247-249.
[18].丁一汇,张莉.青藏高原与中国其他地区气候突变时间的比较[J].大气科学.2008,32(4)：794-805.
[19].杜军,胡军,刘依兰.近25年雅鲁藏布江中游蒸发皿蒸发量及其影响因素的变化[J].自然资源学报.2008,23(1)：120-126.
[20].杜军,马玉才.西藏高原降水变化趋势的气候分析[J].地理学报,2004,59(3)：375-382.
[21].杜军,宁斌.雅鲁藏布江中游近40年异常初终霜冻分析[J].气象学报.2006,32(9)：84-89.
[22].封志明.资源科学导论[M].北京：科学出版社,2004,2-3.
[23].冯国章,李瑛,李佩成.河川径流年内分配不均匀性的量化研究[J].西北农业大学学报.2000,28(2).
[24].冯松.青藏高原十到千年尺度气候变化的综合分析及原因探讨[D].兰州：中国科学院兰州高原大气物理研究所.1999,11-23.
[25].符淙斌,董文杰,温刚,等.全球变化的响应和适应[J].气象学报,2003,61(2)：245-249.
[26].付新峰,杨胜天,刘昌明.雅鲁藏布流域NDVI变化与主要气候因子的关系[J].地理研究.2007,26(1)：60-66.
[27].高冰,杨大文,刘志雨,朱传保.雅鲁藏布江流域的分布式水文模拟及径流变化分析[J].水文.2008,28(3)：40-44.
[28].高登义,邹捍,王维.雅鲁藏布江水汽通道对降水的影响[J].山地研究.1985,3(4)：239-248.
[29].高登义.雅鲁藏布江水汽通道考察研究[J].自然杂志.2009,30(5)：301-303.
[30].高桥浩一郎.月平均气温月降水量以及蒸散发量的推定公式[J].天气(日本).1979,25(8)：11-15
[31].高彦春,王长耀.水文循环的生物圈方面(BAHC计划)研究进展[J].地理科学进展.2000,19(2)：97-103.
[32].高振荣,田庆明,刘晓云,等.近58年河西走廊地区气温变化及突变分析[J].干旱区研究.2010,27(2)：194-203.
[33].高志友,王小丹,尹观.雅鲁藏布江径流水文规律及水体同位素组成[J].地理学报.2007,62(9)：1002-1007.
[34].葛怡史,培军,周俊华等.土地利用变化驱动下的上海市水灾灾情模拟[J].自然灾害学报,2003,12(3)：25-30.
[35].耿乃光,刘晓红,方亚如,等.雅鲁藏布江断裂层泥的力学参数[J].地球物理学报.1988,31(5).
[36].巩同梁.雅鲁藏布江流域水循环演变机理与水资源利用战略研究[D].北京：北京师范大学,2006.
[37].韩晓增,王守宇,宋春雨等.土地利用/覆盖变化对黑土生态环境的影响[J].地理科学,2005,25(2)：203-208.
[38].胡兴林.甘肃省主要河流径流时空分布规律及其演变趋势分析[J].地球科学进展,2000,15(5)：516-520.
[39].黄秉维.再谈森林的作用[J].地理知识,1982(2)：1-3.
[40].黄俊雄,徐宗学,巩同梁.雅鲁藏布江径流演变规律及其驱动因子分析[J].水文.2007,27(5)：31-35.
[41].黄晓清,胡初阳.雅鲁藏布江中游地区的旱涝气候特征分析[J].高原气象.2002,21(1)：108-112.
[42].黄艳,袁鹏,颜志衡.雅鲁藏布江流域天然径流特征及规律分析[J].红水河.2010,29(1)：65-69.
[43].黄一民,章新平.青藏高原四季降水变化特征分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2007,16(4)：537-542.
[44].贾建伟,吕孙云,王政祥.雅鲁藏布江流域水资源量特性分析[J].人民长江.2008,39(17)：71-81.
[45].贾文雄,何元庆,李宗省等.祁连山区气候变化的区域差异特征及突变分析[J].地理学报,2008,63(3)：257-269.
[46].姜德娟,李丽娟,侯西勇,等.洮儿河流域中上游水循环要素变化及其原因[J].地理研究,2009,28(1)：55-64.
[47].姜彤,苏布达,王艳君,等.四十年来长江流域气温、降水与径流变化趋势[J].气候变化研究进展.2005,1(2)：65-68.
[48].金栋梁.森林对水文要素的影响[J].人民长江,1989(1)：28-35.
[49].金栋梁.西藏南部的水资源[J].水资源研究.1985.
[50].靳鹤龄,董光荣,李森.雅鲁藏布江中游下段土地沙漠化成因、趋势及防治对策[J].中国沙漠.1997,17(3)：255-260.
[51].靳鹤龄,董光荣,刘玉璋,等0.8MaB.P.以来雅鲁藏布江中游地区沙地演化和气候变化[J].中国沙漠.1998,18(2)：97-104.
[52].李昌峰,高俊峰,曹慧.土地利用变化对水资源影响研究的现状和趋势[J].土壤.2002,(4)：191-205.
[53].李潮流,康世昌.青藏高原不同时段气候变化的研究综述[J].地理学报.2006,61(3)：327-335.
[54].李代明,唐述君.雅鲁藏布江中游(干、支流)“98.8”洪水成因浅析[J].西藏科技.1999,65-68.
[55].李海东,沈渭寿,邹长新,等.雅鲁藏布江源区土壤侵蚀特征[J].生态与农村环境学报.2010,26(1)：25-30.
[56].李丽娟,姜德娟,杨俊伟,等.陕西大理河流域土地利用／覆被变化的水文效应[J].地理研究.2010,29(7)：1234-1243.
[57].李林,朱西德,秦宁生.青藏高原气温变化及其异常类型的研究[J].高原气象,2003,22(5)：524-530.
[58].李文华,何永涛,杨丽韫.森林对径流影响研究的回顾与展望[J].自然资源学报,2001,16(5)：398-406.
[59].李文华.长江洪水与生态建设[J].自然资源学报,1998,14(1)：1-8.
[60].李岳坦,李小雁,崔步礼,等.青海湖流域50年来(1956-2007年)河川径流量变化趋势-以布哈河和沙柳河为例[J].湖泊科学.2010,22(5)：757-766.
[61].李占玲,徐宗学,巩同梁.雅鲁藏布江流域径流特性变化分析[J].地理研究.2008,27(2)：353-361.
[62].李宗省,何元庆,辛惠娟,等.我国横断山区1960-2008气温和降水时空变化特征[J].地理学报.2010,65(5)：563-579.
[63].梁丽乔.洮儿河流域蒸散发时空格局及其演变机制研究[D].北京：中科院地理所,2008.
[64].林振耀,赵听奕.青藏高原气温降水变化的空间特征[J].中国科学：D辑,1996,26(4)：354-358.
[65].蔺学东,张镱锂,姚治君等.拉萨河流域近50年来径流变化趋势分析[J].地理科学进展,2007,26(3)：58-66
[66].刘昌明,刘小莽,郑红星.气候变化对水文水资源影响问题的探讨[J].科学对社会的影响.2008,2：21-27.
[67].刘昌明,杨胜天,孙睿.基于RS/GIS技术的黄河流域水循环要素研究[M].郑州：黄河水利出版社.2006.
[68].刘昌明,郑红星.黄河流域水循环要素变化趋势分析[J].自然资源学报.2003,18(2)：129-135.
[69].刘昌明.黄河流域水循环演变若干问题的研究[J].水科学进展.2004,15(5)：608-614
[70].刘春蓁.气候变化影响与适应研究中的若干问题[J].气候与环境研究,1999,4(2)：129-134.
[71].刘纪远,布和敖斯尔.中国土地利用变化现代过程时空特征的研究-基于卫星遥感数据[J].第四纪研究.2000,20(3)：229-239.
[72].刘纪远,张增祥,庄大方,等.20世纪90年代中国土地利用变化时空特征及其成因分析[J].地理研究.2003,22(1)：1-12.
[73].刘纪远.中国资源环境遥感调查与动态研究[M].北京：中国环境科学出版社,1996.
[74].刘纪远.中国资源环境遥感宏观调查与动态研究[M].北京：中国科学技术出版社,1996.
[75].刘剑,姚治君,陈传友.雅鲁藏布江径流变化趋势及原因分析[J].自然资源学报.2007,22(3)：471-478.
[76].刘盛和,何书金.土地利用动态变化的空间分析测算[J].自然资源学报.2002,17(5)：533-540.
[77].刘天仇.雅鲁藏布江水文特征[J].地理学报.1999,54(增刊)：154-158.
[78].刘贤赵,李嘉竹,宿庆,等.基于集中度与集中期的径流年内分配研究[J].地理科学.2007,27(6)：791-795.
[79].刘贤赵,宿庆,刘德林.流域径流演变多时间尺度特征探讨[J].水电能源科学,2008,26(1)：21-25,46.
[80].刘贤赵,宿庆,毛爱华,等.近40年来烟台地区气温和降水量变化的关系研究[J].科技通 报.2004,20(1)：11-14
[81].刘晓东,张敏锋,惠晓英等.青藏高原当代气候变化特征及其对温室效应的响应[J].地理科学,1998,18(2)：113-121.
[82].刘忠方,田立德,姚檀栋,等.雅鲁藏布江流域河水中氧稳定同位素的时空变化[J].冰川冻土.2008,30(1)：20-27.
[83].刘忠方,田立德,姚檀栋,等.雅鲁藏布江流域降水中δ18O的时空变化[J].地理学报.2007,62(5)：510-517.
[84].柳景峰,张勃.河西内陆干旱区气候变化与径流的时空耦合分析[J].资源科学,2008,30(7)：1105-1114.
[85].鲁安新,姚檀栋,王丽红,等.青藏高原典型冰川和湖泊变化遥感研究[J].冰川冻土,2005,27(6)：783-792.
[86].栾兆擎.三江平原50a来气温及降水变化研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2007,21(11)：39-43.
[87].马晓波,胡泽勇.青藏高原40年来降水变化趋势及突变的分析[J].中国沙漠,2005,25(1)：137-1391.
[88].马雪华.森林水文学[M].北京：中国林业出版社,1993.
[89].缪启龙,张磊,丁斌.青藏高原近40年的降水变化及水汽输送分析[J].气象与减灾研究,2007,30(1)：14-18.
[90].《气候变化国家评估报告》编写委员会,气候变化国家评估报告[M].北京：科学出版社,2007,3.
[91].气候变化关键词：水危机—访国际水资源管理研究所主任科林·查特斯[EB/OL].http://www.eedu.org.cn/water/ShowArticle.asp?ArticleID=51544.
[92].钱晓燕,袁鹏,邵骏,等.雅鲁藏布江河川径流变化的季节性规律研究[J].水资源与水工程学报.2010,21(1)：29-33.
[93].钱正英,陈家琦,冯杰.人与河流和谐发展[J].中国水利.2006,(2)：7-10.
[94].秦大河,陈振林,罗勇,等.气候变化科学的最新认知[J].气候变化研究进展,2007,3(2)：63-73.
[95].秦大河.气候变化的事实、影响及我国的对策[J].外交学院学报,2004,77(3)：14-22.
[96].秦大河.气候变化的事实与影响及对策[J].中国科学基金,2003,17(1)：1-3.；
[97].任朝霞,杨达源.近50a西北干旱区气候变化趋势研究[J].第四纪研究,2006,26(2)：299-300.
[98].任国玉,初子莹,周雅清,等.中国气温变化研究最新进展[J].气候与环境研究,2005,10(4)：701-716.
[99].邵骏,袁鹏,颜志衡,张文江.基于HHT的雅鲁藏布江径流变化周期及趋势分析[J].中山大学学报(自然科学版).2010,49(1)：125-130.
[100].邵骏,袁鹏,张文江,钱晓燕.基于HHT变换的雅鲁藏布江径流多时间尺度分析[J].水电能源科学.2009,27(5)：8-10.
[101].沈大军,刘昌明.水文水资源系统对气候变化的响应[J].地理研究.1998,17(4)：435-443
[102].施嘉炀.水资源综合利用[M].北京：中国水利电力出版社,1995.
[103].石培礼,李文华.森林植被变化对水文过程和径流的影响效应[J].自然资源学报.2001,16(5)：481-487.
[104].苏珍,刘宗香,王文悌,等.青藏高原冰川对气候变化的响应及趋势预测[J].地球科学进展.1999,14(6)：607-612
[105].孙惠南.近20年来关于森林作用研究的进展[J].自然资源学报.2001,16(5)：407-412.
[106].孙惠南.用自然地理观点探讨蒸发力[J].地理学报.1984,39(1)：44～51
[107].孙宁.潮河流域土地利用与覆被变化对水资源影响的模拟研究[D].北京：中科院地理所,2005.
[108].孙晓娟.三峡库区森林生态系统健康评价与景观安全格局分析[D].北京：中国林业科学研究院,2007.
[109].孙庆宇,佟玲,张宝忠,等.参考作物蒸发蒸腾量计算方法在海河流域的适用性[J].农业工程学报.2010,26(11)：68-72.
[110].汤懋苍,白重瑗,冯松,等.本世纪青藏高原气候的三次突变及与天文因素的相关[J].高原气象,1998,17(3)：250-257.
[111].汤懋苍,梁娟,邵明镜等.高原季风年际变化的初步分析[J].高原气象,1984,3(3)：76-82.
[112].汤奇成,程天文,李秀云.中国河川月径流的集中度和集中期的初步研究[J].地理学报.1982,37(4)：383-393.
[113].汤奇成,曲耀光,周率超.中国干旱区水文及水资源利用[M].北京：科学出版社,1992.44-80.
[114].王二七,陈良忠,陈智樑.在构造和气候因素制约下的雅鲁藏布江的演化[J].第四纪研究.2002,22(7)：365-373.
[115].王根绪,丁永建,王建,等.近15年来长江黄河源区的土地覆被变化[J].2004,59(2)：163-173.
[116].王国庆,张建云,刘九夫,等.气候变化对水文水资源影响研究综述[J].中国水利.2008,2：47-51.
[117].王金星,张建云,李岩,等.近50年来中国六大流域径流年内分配变化趋势[J].水科学进展.2008,19(5)：656-661.
[118].王丽艳,吕昌河,姚治君.潮白河上游土地利用的时空变化特征与驱动力分析[J].地理科学进展.2005,24(5)：88-95
[119].王菱,陈沈斌,侯光良.利用彭曼公式计算潜在蒸发的高度订正方法[J].气象学报.1988,46(3)：381-383.
[120].王思远,刘纪远,张增祥,等.近10年中国土地利用格局及其演变[J].地理学报.2002,57(2)：523-530.
[121].王铁峰.雅鲁藏布江中游干支流水文特性及冰川湖溃决洪水分析研究[D].2001.大连：大连理工大学.
[122].王文圣,丁晶,李跃清.水文小波分析[M].北京：化学工业出版社,2005.
[123].王雪军,杨建新,孙玉军.晋陕蒙接壤地区土地利用格局动态遥感研究与预测[J].水土保持学报.2002,16(4)：58-61.
[124].王堰,李雄,缪启龙.青藏高原近50年来气温变化特征的研究[J].干旱区地理,2004,27(1)：41-46.
[125].王懿贤.高度对彭曼蒸发公式二因子δ/(δ+γ)与γ/(δ+γ)的影响[J].气象学报,1981,39(4)：503-506
[126].韦志刚,黄荣辉,董文杰.青藏高原气温和降水的年际和年代际变化[J].大气科学,2003,27(2)：157-170.
[127].魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京：气象出版社,2007.
[128].文安邦,刘淑珍,范建容,等.雅鲁藏布江中游地区河流泥沙近期变化及防治对策[J].水土保持学报.2002,16(6)：148-150.
[129].文安邦,刘淑珍,范建容,等.雅鲁藏布江中游地区土壤侵蚀的137Cs示踪法研究[J].水土保持学报.2000,14(4)：47-50.
[130].吴绍洪,尹云鹤,郑度等.青藏高原近30年气候变化趋势[J].地理学报,2005,60(1)：3-11.
[131].夏军,谈戈.全球变化与水文科学新的进展与挑战[J].资源科学.2002,24(3)：1-7.
[132].徐大懋.雅鲁藏布江水能开发[J].中国工程科学,2002,(12)：51-52.
[133].许炯心.长江中上游水沙过程与生态环境建设[J].中国科学院地理研究所,1999.
[134].许月卿,李秀彬.基于GIS的河北南部平原土地利用变化动态分析[J].资源科学.2003,25(2)：77-84.
[135].延军平,黄春长,陈瑛.跨世纪全球环境问题及行为对策[M].北京：科学出版社,1999：49-53.
[136].杨明金,张勃,王海青,等.黑河流域1950年-2004年出山径流变化规律分析[J].资源科学.2009,31(3)：413-419.
[137].杨远东.河川径流年内分配的计算方法[J].地理学报.1984,39(2)：218-227.
[138].姚檀栋,刘晓东,王宁练.青藏高原地区的气候变化幅度问题[J].科学通报,2000,45(1)：98-106.
[139].姚檀栋,姚治君.青藏高原冰川退缩对河水径流的影响[J].自然杂志,2010,32(1)：4-8.
[140].姚允龙,吕宪国,王蕾.1956年-2005年挠力河径流演变特征及影响因素分析[J].资源科学.2009,31(4)：648-655.
[141].叶柏生,李狲,杨大庆,等.我国过去50a来降水变化趋势及其对水资源的影响(Ⅱ)：月系列[J].冰川冻土,2005,27(1)：100-105.
[142].游庆龙,康世昌,闫宇平,等.近45年雅鲁藏布江流域极端气候事件趋势分析[J].地理学报.2009,64(5)：592-600.
[143].于静洁,刘昌明.森林水文学研究综述[J].地理研究,1989,8(1)：88-98.
[144].袁鹏,邵骏,李秀峰.非参数扰动最近邻自展模型在雅鲁藏布江中游奴下站年径流预测中的应用[J].中国西部科技.2006,(28)：46-47.
[145].詹道江,叶守泽.工程水文学[M].北京：中国水利水电出版社.2000.
[146].张翠叶.雅鲁藏布江中游地区沙漠化土地现状及治理对策[J].西藏科技.2003,5：20-22.
[147].张大为.中印边界问题研究[J].重庆工业管理学院学报,1991,(3).
[148].张光辉.全球气候变化对黄河流域天然径流量影响的情景分析[J].地理研究,2006,25(2)：268-275.
[149].张建云,王国庆,等著.气候变化对水文水资源影响研究[J].北京：科学出版社.2007.128.
[150].张杰,李栋梁,何金梅,等.地形对青藏高原丰枯水年雨季降水量空间分布的影响[J].水科学进展,2007,18(3)：319-326.
[151].张沛全,高明星,雷永良,等.西藏雅鲁藏布江大拐弯地区量化地貌特征及其成因[J].中国地质.大学学报.2009,34(4)：595-603.
[152].张沛全,高明星,刘小汉.雅鲁藏布江大拐弯入口地区流水地貌特征及其对构造运动的响应[J].地理与地理信息科学.2008,24(3)：45-48.
[153].张沛全,刘小汉.雅鲁藏布江大拐弯入口段泥石流特征及应对措施[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报.2008,19(1)：12-17.
[154].张少文,丁晶,廖杰,等.基于小波的黄河上游天然年径流变化特性分析[J].四川大学学报(工程科学版),2004,36(3)：32-37.
[155].张胜利,李倬,赵文林等.黄河中游多沙粗沙区水沙变化原因及其发展趋势[M].郑州：黄河水利出版社,1998.
[156].张文纲,李述训,庞强强.青藏高原40年来降水量时空变化趋势[J].水科学进展,2009,20(2)：168-176.
[157].张显扬,董增川,王建群,等.雅鲁藏布江尼洋河流域洪水预报方法研究[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版).2005,33(5)：530-533.
[158].赵芳芳,徐宗学.黄河兰州以上气候要素长期变化趋势和突变特征分析[J].气象学报.2006,64(2)：246-255.
[159].赵健,李蓉.雅鲁藏布江流域土壤侵蚀区域特征初步研究[J].长江科学院院报.2008,25(3)：42-45.
[160].郑度.青藏高原自然地域系统研究[J].中国科学：D辑,1999,26(4)：336-341.
[161].郑红星,刘昌明.黄河源区径流年内分配变化规律分析[J].地理科学进展.2003,33(6)：585-591.
[162].郑锡澜,常承法.雅鲁藏布江下游地区地质构造特征[J].地质科学.1979,2：116-126.
[163].郑益群,钱永甫,苗曼倩.植被变化对中国区域气候的影响Ⅱ：机理分析[J].气象学报.2002,60(1)：7-30.
[164].中国科学院地理科学与资源所研究数据中心.土地资源分类系统.
[165].中国科学院青藏高原综合科学考察队.西藏河流与湖泊[M].北京：科学出版社,1984.
[166].周凤岐,崔敬波,赵松涛.土地利用变化对流域水资源的影响[J].东北水利水电.2005,23(6)：28-29.
[167].周顺武,假拉,杜军.近42年西藏高原雅鲁藏布江中游夏季气候趋势和突变分析[J].高原气象,2001,20(1)：71-75.
[168].周顺武,张勇.近42年雅鲁藏布江中游四季气温变化特征分析[J].成都气象学院学报.2000,15(4)：307-311.
[169].周晓峰,赵惠勋,孙慧珍.正确评价森林水文效应[J].自然资源学报.2001,16(5)：420-426.
[170].周再知,蔡满堂,许勇太.乡村土地利用与景观格局动态变化研究[J].林业科学研究[J].1999,12(6)：599-605.
[171].朱会义,李秀彬.关于区域土地利用变化指数模型方法的讨论[J].地理学报,2003,58(5)：643-650.
[172].朱平一,程尊兰,汪阳春.西藏雅鲁藏布江中游地区泥石流及防灾对策[J].水土保持学报.2002,16(6)：69-75.
[173].朱西德,李林,秦宁生,等.青藏高原年降水量的气候变化及其异常类型研究[J].气象科学.2003,23(4)：452-459.
[174]. Sandstrom K森林能“提供”水分：广泛流传的神话还是科学事实[J].人类环境杂志(AMBIO),1998(27)：132-138
[175]. Alley R B, Marotzke J, Nordhaus W D,et el.Abrupt climate change [J].Science,2003,299:2005-2010.
[176]. Askew A J.Climate change and water resources [A].In:Solomon S I, Beran M, Hogg Weds. he Influence of Climate Change and Climatic Variability on the Hydrologic Regime and Water Resources [C].Oxfordshire:IAHS Press,1987.Vol 168,421-430.
[177]. Batelaan O, Smedt De F, Triest L, Regional ground water discharge:phreatophyte mapping, ground water modeling and impact analysis of land-use change. Journal of Hydrology,2003, (275):86-108.
[178]. Beniston M. Climatic Change:Implications for the Hydrological Cycle and for Water Management [M]. Dordrecht:Kluwer Academic Publishers,2002.
[179]. Bhaduri B. A geographic information system-based model of the Long-Term impact of land use change on non-point source pollution at watershed scale:Ph.D. thesis. West Lafayette:Purdue University,1998.
[180]. Bosch J.M., Hewlett J.D. A review of catchment experiments to determine the effect of vegetation changes on water yield and evapotranspiration. Journal of Hydrology,1982, (103): 323-333.
[181]. Bouraoui F., G.Vachaud, T.Chen. Prediction of the Effect of Climatic Changes and Land Use Management on Water Resources. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth,1998,23(4):379-384.
[182]. Bronstert Axel, Daniel Niehoff, Gerd Burger. Effects of climate and land-use change on storm runoff generation:present knowledge and modelling capabilities. Hydrological Processes, 2002,(16):509-529.
[183]. Brown,L R. Dust bowl threatening China's future. http://www.earth-policy.org/Alerts/Alert13.htm,2001.
[184]. Bruijnzeel L.A. Hydrology of Moist Forests and the Effects of Conversion:A State of Knowledge Review[R]. IHP-UNESCO Humid Tropical Programme, Paris, France.1990.
[185]. Burn D H, Elnur MAH.Detection of hydrologic trends and variability[J].Journal of Hydrology.2002.255:107-122.
[186]. Calder I R. Land use impacts on water resources. Land-Water Linkages in Rural Watersheds Electronic Workshop,18 September -27 October 2000, Background Paper No.1. FAO, Rome.
[187]. Calder I.R. Forests and hydrological services:reconciling public and science perceptions. Land Use and Water Resources Research,2002, (2):2.1-2.12.
[188]. Chaves J E,Neill C.Germer S,et al. Land management impacts on runoff sources in small Amazon watersheds.Hydrological Processes,2008,(22):1766-1775.
[189]. CrokeaB.F.W.,W.S.Merrittc,A.J.Jakemana.Adynamic model for predicting hydrologic response to land cover changes in gauged and ungauged catchments. Journal of Hydrology,2004, (291): 115-131.
[190]. CrooksS.,DaviesH. Assessment of land use change in the Thames Catchment and its effect on the flood regime of the river.Phys.Chem.Earth.,2001,26(7,8):583-591.
[191]. Daniel N,Fritsch U,Bronstert A,et al.Land-use impacts on storm-runoff generation:Scenarios of land use change and simulation of hydrological response inameso-scale catchment in SW2 Germany.Journal of Hydrology,2002,(267):80-93.
[192]. De Roo A.P.J. Modelling surface runoff and soil erosion in catchments using geographical information systems[R]. Netherlands:Utrecht.1993.
[193]. DeFries R., K.N. Eshleman. Land-use change and hydrologic processes:a major focus for the future. Hydrological Processes,2004, (18):2183-2186.
[194]. Ding Yihui,Sun Ying,Wang Zunya,et al.Inter-decadal variation of the summer precipitation in China and its association with decreasing Asian summer monsoon.PartⅡ:Possible causes. International Journal of Climatology, in press.
[195]. Disalvo A C,Hart S C.Climatic and stream flow controls on tree grow th in a western Montane riparian forest[J]. Environmental Management,2002,30(5):678-691.
[196]. Gaiser T,Krol M,Frischkorn H,et al.Global Change and Regional Impacts,Water Availability and Vulnerability of Ecosystems and Society in the Semi-Arid Northeast of Brizil.Heidelberg:Springer,2003.
[197]. Geist H J,Lambin E F. What drives tropical deforestation LUCC Report Series.2001, (4).
[198]. Guo H,Hu Q,Jiang T.Annual and seasonal streamflow responses to climate and land-cover changes in the PoyangLake basin,China.Journal of Hydrology,2008,(355):106-122.
[199]. HANNAH D M,SMITH B P G,GURNELL A M,et al.An approach to hydrograph classification[J].Hydrological processes,2000,14(2):317-338.
[200]. HARRIS N M,GURNELL AM,HANNAH D M,et al.Classification of river regimes:A context for hydro ecology[J].Hydrological processes,2000,14(16-17):2831-2848.
[201]. Houghton J T,Ding Y,Griggs D J,et al.Climate Change 2001:The Scientific Basis[M].UK:Cambridge University Press,2001:944.
[202]. Hutchinson M F.The application of thin plates plines to continent wide data assimilation.Data Assimilation Systems, BMRC Research Report No.27. Melbourne:Bureau of Meteorology, 1991:104-113.
[203]. IGBP. Global Change and the Earth System:A planet under pressure. IGBP Science 4,2001.
[204]. IPCC.Summary for policymakers of climate change 2007:The physical science basis.Contribution of working groupⅠ to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change [M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2007
[205]. Jones P D,Moberg A. Hemispheric and large-scale surface air temperature variations:An extensive revision and an update to 2001 [J].Journal of Climate,2003,16:206-223.
[206]. Juckem P F,Hunt R J,Anderson M P,et al.Effects of climate and land management change on streamflow in the driftless area of Wisconsin Journal of Hydrology,2008,(355):123-130.
[207]. Karvonen T.,Koivusalo H.,Jauhainen M.,et al.A hydrological model for predicting runoff from different land use areas. Journal of Hydrology,1999,(217):253-265.
[208]. Kendall M G.Rank Correlation Methods[M].Londan:Griffin,1975.
[209]. Lahmer W.,Pfiitzner B,Becker A. Assessment of land use and climate change impacts on Meoscale. Phys.Chem.Earth(B),2001,26(7-8):565-575.
[210]. Lee K S,Chung E S.Hydrological effects of climate change,ground water with drawal,and land use in a small Korean watershed. Hydrological Processes,2007,(21):3046-3056.
[211]. Li Li juan,Zhang Lu,Wang Hao.Assessing the impact of climate variability and human activities on streamflow from the Wuding River basin in China, Hydrological Processes,2007,21:3485-3491.
[212]. Lin Z,Wu X.A preliminary analysis about the tracks of moisture transportation on the Qinghai-Xizang plateau [J]. GeographResearch,1990,9(3):30-49.
[213]. LIU Xiao-dong,CHEN Bao-de.Climatic warming in the Tibet Plateau during recent deeades[J].Inter J Climatol,2000,20:1729-1742.
[214]. Machiwal D,Jha M K.Comparative evaluation of statistical tests for time series analysis: Application to hydrological time series [J].Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal DesSciences Hydrologiques,2008,53(2):353-366.
[215]. Maidment D R. Handbook of Hydrology. New York:McGRAW-HILL,1993,13.1-13.38.
[216]. Mann H B. Nonparametric tests against trend [J].Econometrica,1945,13:245-259.
[217]. Mccarth J J,Canziani O,Leary N A,et al. Climate Change 2001:Impacts,Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of WorkingGroupI to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernment Panel on Climate Change.Cambridge,United Kingdom:Cambridge University Press,2001:032.
[218]. Moussa R., Voltz M., Andrieux P. Effects of the spatial organization of agricultural management on the hydrological behaviour of a farmed catchment during flood events. Hydrological Processes,2002, (16):393-412.
[219]. PETIS G E,BICKERTON M A,CRAWFORD C,et al.Flow management to sustain groundwater dominated stream ecosystem[J].Hydrologica:Processes,1999,13:497-513.
[220]. Price D T,Mckenney D W,Nalder I A,et al. Acomparison of two statistical methods for spatial interpolation of Canadian monthly mean climate data.Agriculture and Forest Meteorology,2000,101:81-94.
[221]. Ren G,Xu M,Tang G,et al.Climate Changes of the past 100 years in China [R].Climate Change Newsletter.2003/2004,4-5.
[222]. Romanowicz A.A.,M.Vanclooster,M.Rounsevell,I.LaJunesse. Sensitivity of the SWAT model to the soil and land use data parametrisation:a case study in the Thylecatchment,Belgium.Ecological Modelling,2005,(187):27-39.
[223]. Sahin V.,Hall M.J.The effects of afforestation and deforestation on wateryields. Journal of Hydrology,1996,(178):293-309.
[224]. Schulze R E. Modeling hydrological responses to land use and climate change:a southern African perspective. AMBIO,2000,29(1):12-22.
[225]. Stocker T F, Raible C C. Water cycle shifts gear [J]. Nature,2005,434:830-832.
[226]. Thomas A. Sptial and temporal characteristies of potential evapotranspiration trends over China [J].International Journal of Climatology,2000,20(4):381-396.
[227]. Thornton P E,Running S W, White M A.Generating surfaces of daily meteorological variables over large regions of complex terrain. Journal of Hydrology,1997,190:214-251.
[228]. Tian Lide,YaoTandong,Numaguti A,et al.Relation between stable isotope in monsoon precipitation in southern Tibetan plateau and moisture transport history [J]. Science in China (SeriesD),2001,44(suppl):267-274.
[229]. Turner B L, Skole D, Sanderson S, et al. Land use and land cover change science/research plan. IGBP Report No.35 and HDP Report No.7. Stochkholm:IGBP,1995.
[230]. Turner B L II,Clark W C,Kates R W,et al.The earth astrans formed by humanaction.Global and regional changes in the biosphere over the past 300 years. Cambridge University Press(with Clark University).Cambridge,NewYork:Port Chester,Melbourne&Sydney,1990.
[231]. UNESCO. Hydrological effects of Urbanization [R]. Studies and Reports in Hydrology 18, Paris,France,1974.
[232]. US Academy of science climate. Climate change and water supply [M]. Washington D C:National Academy Press,1977.
[233]. Vander Weert R. Hydrological Conditions in Indonesia, Delft Hydraulics, Jakarta, Indonesia.1994.
[234]. Wang S F,Kang S Z,Zhang L,et al.Modelling hydrological response to different land-use and climate change scenarios in the Zamu River basin of northwest China.Hydrological Processes,2008,(22):2502-2510.
[235]. WMO. Water resources and climate change:sensitivity of water resources systems to climate change and variability [R].WMO/TO,1987.
[236]. Xu ZX,et al.Monotonic trend and step changes in Japanese precipitation.Journal of Hydrology,2003,279:144-150.
[237]. Yan H,Nix H A,Hutchinson M F,et al. Spatial interpolation of monthly mean climate data for China. International Journal of Climate,2005,25(10):1369-1379.
[238]. Ye Duzheng,JiangYundi,Dong Wenjie.The northward shift of climatic belts in China during the last 50 years and the corresponding seasonal responses.Advancesin Atmospheric Sciences,2003,20(6):959-967
[239]. Zhang Lujun,QianYongfu.Annual distribution features of the yearly precipitation in China and their interannual variations [J].ActaMeteorologica Sinica,2003,17(2):146-163.
[2].蔡新玲,孙娴,乔秋文,等.气候变化对汉江上游径流的影响[J].气候变化研究进展.2008,4(4).
[3].蔡英,李栋梁,汤懋苍,等.青藏高原近50年来气温的年代际变化[J].高原气象.2003,22(5)：464-470.
[4].蔡英.青藏高原气候的年代际变化[D].兰州：中国科学院兰州高原大气物理研究所.1998,22-45.
[5].陈多,张镱锂,郑度.拉萨地区土地利用变化情景分析[J].地理研究.2005,24(6)：869-877.
[6].陈军锋,李秀彬.森林植被变化对流域水文影响的争论[J].自然资源学报,2001,16(5)：474-480.
[7].陈军锋,张明.梭磨河流域气候波动和土地覆被变化对径流影响的模拟[J].地理研究,2003,22(1)：73-78.
[8].陈利顶,傅伯杰.黄河三角洲地区人类活动对景观结构的影响分析-以山东省东营市为例[J1.生态学报.1996,(4)：337-344.
[9].陈隆勋,周秀骥,李维亮.中国近80年来气候变化特征及其形成机制[J].气象学报,2004,62(5)：634-646.
[10].陈隆勋,朱文琴,王文,等.中国近45年来气候变化的研究.气象学报[J],1998,56(3)：257-271.
[11].戴加洗.青藏高原气候[M].北京：气象出版社,1990.
[12].戴露.雅鲁藏布江中游段径流预测研究[D].成都：四川大学.2006
[13].单菊萍.基于DEM的雅鲁藏布江河流地貌特征的研究[D].北京：中国地质大学.2007
[14].党永红,李旭辉.应用ArcGIS提取景观生态学评价方法中Rf参数的方法[EB/OL].http://www.hwcc.com.cn/pub/hwcc/wwgj/bgqy/hhpd/200905/t20090531_213538.html.20 09-05-31.
[15].邓慧平,李秀彬,陈军锋,等.流域土地覆被变化水文效应的模拟-以长江上游源头梭磨河为例[J].地理学报.2003,58(1)：53-62.
[16].丁晶,邓育仁.随机水文学[M].成都：成都科技大学出版社,1988.
[17].丁一汇,马爱民.全球气候变化-人类面临的挑战[M].北京：商务印书馆,2004,247-249.
[18].丁一汇,张莉.青藏高原与中国其他地区气候突变时间的比较[J].大气科学.2008,32(4)：794-805.
[19].杜军,胡军,刘依兰.近25年雅鲁藏布江中游蒸发皿蒸发量及其影响因素的变化[J].自然资源学报.2008,23(1)：120-126.
[20].杜军,马玉才.西藏高原降水变化趋势的气候分析[J].地理学报,2004,59(3)：375-382.
[21].杜军,宁斌.雅鲁藏布江中游近40年异常初终霜冻分析[J].气象学报.2006,32(9)：84-89.
[22].封志明.资源科学导论[M].北京：科学出版社,2004,2-3.
[23].冯国章,李瑛,李佩成.河川径流年内分配不均匀性的量化研究[J].西北农业大学学报.2000,28(2).
[24].冯松.青藏高原十到千年尺度气候变化的综合分析及原因探讨[D].兰州：中国科学院兰州高原大气物理研究所.1999,11-23.
[25].符淙斌,董文杰,温刚,等.全球变化的响应和适应[J].气象学报,2003,61(2)：245-249.
[26].付新峰,杨胜天,刘昌明.雅鲁藏布流域NDVI变化与主要气候因子的关系[J].地理研究.2007,26(1)：60-66.
[27].高冰,杨大文,刘志雨,朱传保.雅鲁藏布江流域的分布式水文模拟及径流变化分析[J].水文.2008,28(3)：40-44.
[28].高登义,邹捍,王维.雅鲁藏布江水汽通道对降水的影响[J].山地研究.1985,3(4)：239-248.
[29].高登义.雅鲁藏布江水汽通道考察研究[J].自然杂志.2009,30(5)：301-303.
[30].高桥浩一郎.月平均气温月降水量以及蒸散发量的推定公式[J].天气(日本).1979,25(8)：11-15
[31].高彦春,王长耀.水文循环的生物圈方面(BAHC计划)研究进展[J].地理科学进展.2000,19(2)：97-103.
[32].高振荣,田庆明,刘晓云,等.近58年河西走廊地区气温变化及突变分析[J].干旱区研究.2010,27(2)：194-203.
[33].高志友,王小丹,尹观.雅鲁藏布江径流水文规律及水体同位素组成[J].地理学报.2007,62(9)：1002-1007.
[34].葛怡史,培军,周俊华等.土地利用变化驱动下的上海市水灾灾情模拟[J].自然灾害学报,2003,12(3)：25-30.
[35].耿乃光,刘晓红,方亚如,等.雅鲁藏布江断裂层泥的力学参数[J].地球物理学报.1988,31(5).
[36].巩同梁.雅鲁藏布江流域水循环演变机理与水资源利用战略研究[D].北京：北京师范大学,2006.
[37].韩晓增,王守宇,宋春雨等.土地利用/覆盖变化对黑土生态环境的影响[J].地理科学,2005,25(2)：203-208.
[38].胡兴林.甘肃省主要河流径流时空分布规律及其演变趋势分析[J].地球科学进展,2000,15(5)：516-520.
[39].黄秉维.再谈森林的作用[J].地理知识,1982(2)：1-3.
[40].黄俊雄,徐宗学,巩同梁.雅鲁藏布江径流演变规律及其驱动因子分析[J].水文.2007,27(5)：31-35.
[41].黄晓清,胡初阳.雅鲁藏布江中游地区的旱涝气候特征分析[J].高原气象.2002,21(1)：108-112.
[42].黄艳,袁鹏,颜志衡.雅鲁藏布江流域天然径流特征及规律分析[J].红水河.2010,29(1)：65-69.
[43].黄一民,章新平.青藏高原四季降水变化特征分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2007,16(4)：537-542.
[44].贾建伟,吕孙云,王政祥.雅鲁藏布江流域水资源量特性分析[J].人民长江.2008,39(17)：71-81.
[45].贾文雄,何元庆,李宗省等.祁连山区气候变化的区域差异特征及突变分析[J].地理学报,2008,63(3)：257-269.
[46].姜德娟,李丽娟,侯西勇,等.洮儿河流域中上游水循环要素变化及其原因[J].地理研究,2009,28(1)：55-64.
[47].姜彤,苏布达,王艳君,等.四十年来长江流域气温、降水与径流变化趋势[J].气候变化研究进展.2005,1(2)：65-68.
[48].金栋梁.森林对水文要素的影响[J].人民长江,1989(1)：28-35.
[49].金栋梁.西藏南部的水资源[J].水资源研究.1985.
[50].靳鹤龄,董光荣,李森.雅鲁藏布江中游下段土地沙漠化成因、趋势及防治对策[J].中国沙漠.1997,17(3)：255-260.
[51].靳鹤龄,董光荣,刘玉璋,等0.8MaB.P.以来雅鲁藏布江中游地区沙地演化和气候变化[J].中国沙漠.1998,18(2)：97-104.
[52].李昌峰,高俊峰,曹慧.土地利用变化对水资源影响研究的现状和趋势[J].土壤.2002,(4)：191-205.
[53].李潮流,康世昌.青藏高原不同时段气候变化的研究综述[J].地理学报.2006,61(3)：327-335.
[54].李代明,唐述君.雅鲁藏布江中游(干、支流)“98.8”洪水成因浅析[J].西藏科技.1999,65-68.
[55].李海东,沈渭寿,邹长新,等.雅鲁藏布江源区土壤侵蚀特征[J].生态与农村环境学报.2010,26(1)：25-30.
[56].李丽娟,姜德娟,杨俊伟,等.陕西大理河流域土地利用／覆被变化的水文效应[J].地理研究.2010,29(7)：1234-1243.
[57].李林,朱西德,秦宁生.青藏高原气温变化及其异常类型的研究[J].高原气象,2003,22(5)：524-530.
[58].李文华,何永涛,杨丽韫.森林对径流影响研究的回顾与展望[J].自然资源学报,2001,16(5)：398-406.
[59].李文华.长江洪水与生态建设[J].自然资源学报,1998,14(1)：1-8.
[60].李岳坦,李小雁,崔步礼,等.青海湖流域50年来(1956-2007年)河川径流量变化趋势-以布哈河和沙柳河为例[J].湖泊科学.2010,22(5)：757-766.
[61].李占玲,徐宗学,巩同梁.雅鲁藏布江流域径流特性变化分析[J].地理研究.2008,27(2)：353-361.
[62].李宗省,何元庆,辛惠娟,等.我国横断山区1960-2008气温和降水时空变化特征[J].地理学报.2010,65(5)：563-579.
[63].梁丽乔.洮儿河流域蒸散发时空格局及其演变机制研究[D].北京：中科院地理所,2008.
[64].林振耀,赵听奕.青藏高原气温降水变化的空间特征[J].中国科学：D辑,1996,26(4)：354-358.
[65].蔺学东,张镱锂,姚治君等.拉萨河流域近50年来径流变化趋势分析[J].地理科学进展,2007,26(3)：58-66
[66].刘昌明,刘小莽,郑红星.气候变化对水文水资源影响问题的探讨[J].科学对社会的影响.2008,2：21-27.
[67].刘昌明,杨胜天,孙睿.基于RS/GIS技术的黄河流域水循环要素研究[M].郑州：黄河水利出版社.2006.
[68].刘昌明,郑红星.黄河流域水循环要素变化趋势分析[J].自然资源学报.2003,18(2)：129-135.
[69].刘昌明.黄河流域水循环演变若干问题的研究[J].水科学进展.2004,15(5)：608-614
[70].刘春蓁.气候变化影响与适应研究中的若干问题[J].气候与环境研究,1999,4(2)：129-134.
[71].刘纪远,布和敖斯尔.中国土地利用变化现代过程时空特征的研究-基于卫星遥感数据[J].第四纪研究.2000,20(3)：229-239.
[72].刘纪远,张增祥,庄大方,等.20世纪90年代中国土地利用变化时空特征及其成因分析[J].地理研究.2003,22(1)：1-12.
[73].刘纪远.中国资源环境遥感调查与动态研究[M].北京：中国环境科学出版社,1996.
[74].刘纪远.中国资源环境遥感宏观调查与动态研究[M].北京：中国科学技术出版社,1996.
[75].刘剑,姚治君,陈传友.雅鲁藏布江径流变化趋势及原因分析[J].自然资源学报.2007,22(3)：471-478.
[76].刘盛和,何书金.土地利用动态变化的空间分析测算[J].自然资源学报.2002,17(5)：533-540.
[77].刘天仇.雅鲁藏布江水文特征[J].地理学报.1999,54(增刊)：154-158.
[78].刘贤赵,李嘉竹,宿庆,等.基于集中度与集中期的径流年内分配研究[J].地理科学.2007,27(6)：791-795.
[79].刘贤赵,宿庆,刘德林.流域径流演变多时间尺度特征探讨[J].水电能源科学,2008,26(1)：21-25,46.
[80].刘贤赵,宿庆,毛爱华,等.近40年来烟台地区气温和降水量变化的关系研究[J].科技通 报.2004,20(1)：11-14
[81].刘晓东,张敏锋,惠晓英等.青藏高原当代气候变化特征及其对温室效应的响应[J].地理科学,1998,18(2)：113-121.
[82].刘忠方,田立德,姚檀栋,等.雅鲁藏布江流域河水中氧稳定同位素的时空变化[J].冰川冻土.2008,30(1)：20-27.
[83].刘忠方,田立德,姚檀栋,等.雅鲁藏布江流域降水中δ18O的时空变化[J].地理学报.2007,62(5)：510-517.
[84].柳景峰,张勃.河西内陆干旱区气候变化与径流的时空耦合分析[J].资源科学,2008,30(7)：1105-1114.
[85].鲁安新,姚檀栋,王丽红,等.青藏高原典型冰川和湖泊变化遥感研究[J].冰川冻土,2005,27(6)：783-792.
[86].栾兆擎.三江平原50a来气温及降水变化研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2007,21(11)：39-43.
[87].马晓波,胡泽勇.青藏高原40年来降水变化趋势及突变的分析[J].中国沙漠,2005,25(1)：137-1391.
[88].马雪华.森林水文学[M].北京：中国林业出版社,1993.
[89].缪启龙,张磊,丁斌.青藏高原近40年的降水变化及水汽输送分析[J].气象与减灾研究,2007,30(1)：14-18.
[90].《气候变化国家评估报告》编写委员会,气候变化国家评估报告[M].北京：科学出版社,2007,3.
[91].气候变化关键词：水危机—访国际水资源管理研究所主任科林·查特斯[EB/OL].http://www.eedu.org.cn/water/ShowArticle.asp?ArticleID=51544.
[92].钱晓燕,袁鹏,邵骏,等.雅鲁藏布江河川径流变化的季节性规律研究[J].水资源与水工程学报.2010,21(1)：29-33.
[93].钱正英,陈家琦,冯杰.人与河流和谐发展[J].中国水利.2006,(2)：7-10.
[94].秦大河,陈振林,罗勇,等.气候变化科学的最新认知[J].气候变化研究进展,2007,3(2)：63-73.
[95].秦大河.气候变化的事实、影响及我国的对策[J].外交学院学报,2004,77(3)：14-22.
[96].秦大河.气候变化的事实与影响及对策[J].中国科学基金,2003,17(1)：1-3.；
[97].任朝霞,杨达源.近50a西北干旱区气候变化趋势研究[J].第四纪研究,2006,26(2)：299-300.
[98].任国玉,初子莹,周雅清,等.中国气温变化研究最新进展[J].气候与环境研究,2005,10(4)：701-716.
[99].邵骏,袁鹏,颜志衡,张文江.基于HHT的雅鲁藏布江径流变化周期及趋势分析[J].中山大学学报(自然科学版).2010,49(1)：125-130.
[100].邵骏,袁鹏,张文江,钱晓燕.基于HHT变换的雅鲁藏布江径流多时间尺度分析[J].水电能源科学.2009,27(5)：8-10.
[101].沈大军,刘昌明.水文水资源系统对气候变化的响应[J].地理研究.1998,17(4)：435-443
[102].施嘉炀.水资源综合利用[M].北京：中国水利电力出版社,1995.
[103].石培礼,李文华.森林植被变化对水文过程和径流的影响效应[J].自然资源学报.2001,16(5)：481-487.
[104].苏珍,刘宗香,王文悌,等.青藏高原冰川对气候变化的响应及趋势预测[J].地球科学进展.1999,14(6)：607-612
[105].孙惠南.近20年来关于森林作用研究的进展[J].自然资源学报.2001,16(5)：407-412.
[106].孙惠南.用自然地理观点探讨蒸发力[J].地理学报.1984,39(1)：44～51
[107].孙宁.潮河流域土地利用与覆被变化对水资源影响的模拟研究[D].北京：中科院地理所,2005.
[108].孙晓娟.三峡库区森林生态系统健康评价与景观安全格局分析[D].北京：中国林业科学研究院,2007.
[109].孙庆宇,佟玲,张宝忠,等.参考作物蒸发蒸腾量计算方法在海河流域的适用性[J].农业工程学报.2010,26(11)：68-72.
[110].汤懋苍,白重瑗,冯松,等.本世纪青藏高原气候的三次突变及与天文因素的相关[J].高原气象,1998,17(3)：250-257.
[111].汤懋苍,梁娟,邵明镜等.高原季风年际变化的初步分析[J].高原气象,1984,3(3)：76-82.
[112].汤奇成,程天文,李秀云.中国河川月径流的集中度和集中期的初步研究[J].地理学报.1982,37(4)：383-393.
[113].汤奇成,曲耀光,周率超.中国干旱区水文及水资源利用[M].北京：科学出版社,1992.44-80.
[114].王二七,陈良忠,陈智樑.在构造和气候因素制约下的雅鲁藏布江的演化[J].第四纪研究.2002,22(7)：365-373.
[115].王根绪,丁永建,王建,等.近15年来长江黄河源区的土地覆被变化[J].2004,59(2)：163-173.
[116].王国庆,张建云,刘九夫,等.气候变化对水文水资源影响研究综述[J].中国水利.2008,2：47-51.
[117].王金星,张建云,李岩,等.近50年来中国六大流域径流年内分配变化趋势[J].水科学进展.2008,19(5)：656-661.
[118].王丽艳,吕昌河,姚治君.潮白河上游土地利用的时空变化特征与驱动力分析[J].地理科学进展.2005,24(5)：88-95
[119].王菱,陈沈斌,侯光良.利用彭曼公式计算潜在蒸发的高度订正方法[J].气象学报.1988,46(3)：381-383.
[120].王思远,刘纪远,张增祥,等.近10年中国土地利用格局及其演变[J].地理学报.2002,57(2)：523-530.
[121].王铁峰.雅鲁藏布江中游干支流水文特性及冰川湖溃决洪水分析研究[D].2001.大连：大连理工大学.
[122].王文圣,丁晶,李跃清.水文小波分析[M].北京：化学工业出版社,2005.
[123].王雪军,杨建新,孙玉军.晋陕蒙接壤地区土地利用格局动态遥感研究与预测[J].水土保持学报.2002,16(4)：58-61.
[124].王堰,李雄,缪启龙.青藏高原近50年来气温变化特征的研究[J].干旱区地理,2004,27(1)：41-46.
[125].王懿贤.高度对彭曼蒸发公式二因子δ/(δ+γ)与γ/(δ+γ)的影响[J].气象学报,1981,39(4)：503-506
[126].韦志刚,黄荣辉,董文杰.青藏高原气温和降水的年际和年代际变化[J].大气科学,2003,27(2)：157-170.
[127].魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京：气象出版社,2007.
[128].文安邦,刘淑珍,范建容,等.雅鲁藏布江中游地区河流泥沙近期变化及防治对策[J].水土保持学报.2002,16(6)：148-150.
[129].文安邦,刘淑珍,范建容,等.雅鲁藏布江中游地区土壤侵蚀的137Cs示踪法研究[J].水土保持学报.2000,14(4)：47-50.
[130].吴绍洪,尹云鹤,郑度等.青藏高原近30年气候变化趋势[J].地理学报,2005,60(1)：3-11.
[131].夏军,谈戈.全球变化与水文科学新的进展与挑战[J].资源科学.2002,24(3)：1-7.
[132].徐大懋.雅鲁藏布江水能开发[J].中国工程科学,2002,(12)：51-52.
[133].许炯心.长江中上游水沙过程与生态环境建设[J].中国科学院地理研究所,1999.
[134].许月卿,李秀彬.基于GIS的河北南部平原土地利用变化动态分析[J].资源科学.2003,25(2)：77-84.
[135].延军平,黄春长,陈瑛.跨世纪全球环境问题及行为对策[M].北京：科学出版社,1999：49-53.
[136].杨明金,张勃,王海青,等.黑河流域1950年-2004年出山径流变化规律分析[J].资源科学.2009,31(3)：413-419.
[137].杨远东.河川径流年内分配的计算方法[J].地理学报.1984,39(2)：218-227.
[138].姚檀栋,刘晓东,王宁练.青藏高原地区的气候变化幅度问题[J].科学通报,2000,45(1)：98-106.
[139].姚檀栋,姚治君.青藏高原冰川退缩对河水径流的影响[J].自然杂志,2010,32(1)：4-8.
[140].姚允龙,吕宪国,王蕾.1956年-2005年挠力河径流演变特征及影响因素分析[J].资源科学.2009,31(4)：648-655.
[141].叶柏生,李狲,杨大庆,等.我国过去50a来降水变化趋势及其对水资源的影响(Ⅱ)：月系列[J].冰川冻土,2005,27(1)：100-105.
[142].游庆龙,康世昌,闫宇平,等.近45年雅鲁藏布江流域极端气候事件趋势分析[J].地理学报.2009,64(5)：592-600.
[143].于静洁,刘昌明.森林水文学研究综述[J].地理研究,1989,8(1)：88-98.
[144].袁鹏,邵骏,李秀峰.非参数扰动最近邻自展模型在雅鲁藏布江中游奴下站年径流预测中的应用[J].中国西部科技.2006,(28)：46-47.
[145].詹道江,叶守泽.工程水文学[M].北京：中国水利水电出版社.2000.
[146].张翠叶.雅鲁藏布江中游地区沙漠化土地现状及治理对策[J].西藏科技.2003,5：20-22.
[147].张大为.中印边界问题研究[J].重庆工业管理学院学报,1991,(3).
[148].张光辉.全球气候变化对黄河流域天然径流量影响的情景分析[J].地理研究,2006,25(2)：268-275.
[149].张建云,王国庆,等著.气候变化对水文水资源影响研究[J].北京：科学出版社.2007.128.
[150].张杰,李栋梁,何金梅,等.地形对青藏高原丰枯水年雨季降水量空间分布的影响[J].水科学进展,2007,18(3)：319-326.
[151].张沛全,高明星,雷永良,等.西藏雅鲁藏布江大拐弯地区量化地貌特征及其成因[J].中国地质.大学学报.2009,34(4)：595-603.
[152].张沛全,高明星,刘小汉.雅鲁藏布江大拐弯入口地区流水地貌特征及其对构造运动的响应[J].地理与地理信息科学.2008,24(3)：45-48.
[153].张沛全,刘小汉.雅鲁藏布江大拐弯入口段泥石流特征及应对措施[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报.2008,19(1)：12-17.
[154].张少文,丁晶,廖杰,等.基于小波的黄河上游天然年径流变化特性分析[J].四川大学学报(工程科学版),2004,36(3)：32-37.
[155].张胜利,李倬,赵文林等.黄河中游多沙粗沙区水沙变化原因及其发展趋势[M].郑州：黄河水利出版社,1998.
[156].张文纲,李述训,庞强强.青藏高原40年来降水量时空变化趋势[J].水科学进展,2009,20(2)：168-176.
[157].张显扬,董增川,王建群,等.雅鲁藏布江尼洋河流域洪水预报方法研究[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版).2005,33(5)：530-533.
[158].赵芳芳,徐宗学.黄河兰州以上气候要素长期变化趋势和突变特征分析[J].气象学报.2006,64(2)：246-255.
[159].赵健,李蓉.雅鲁藏布江流域土壤侵蚀区域特征初步研究[J].长江科学院院报.2008,25(3)：42-45.
[160].郑度.青藏高原自然地域系统研究[J].中国科学：D辑,1999,26(4)：336-341.
[161].郑红星,刘昌明.黄河源区径流年内分配变化规律分析[J].地理科学进展.2003,33(6)：585-591.
[162].郑锡澜,常承法.雅鲁藏布江下游地区地质构造特征[J].地质科学.1979,2：116-126.
[163].郑益群,钱永甫,苗曼倩.植被变化对中国区域气候的影响Ⅱ：机理分析[J].气象学报.2002,60(1)：7-30.
[164].中国科学院地理科学与资源所研究数据中心.土地资源分类系统.
[165].中国科学院青藏高原综合科学考察队.西藏河流与湖泊[M].北京：科学出版社,1984.
[166].周凤岐,崔敬波,赵松涛.土地利用变化对流域水资源的影响[J].东北水利水电.2005,23(6)：28-29.
[167].周顺武,假拉,杜军.近42年西藏高原雅鲁藏布江中游夏季气候趋势和突变分析[J].高原气象,2001,20(1)：71-75.
[168].周顺武,张勇.近42年雅鲁藏布江中游四季气温变化特征分析[J].成都气象学院学报.2000,15(4)：307-311.
[169].周晓峰,赵惠勋,孙慧珍.正确评价森林水文效应[J].自然资源学报.2001,16(5)：420-426.
[170].周再知,蔡满堂,许勇太.乡村土地利用与景观格局动态变化研究[J].林业科学研究[J].1999,12(6)：599-605.
[171].朱会义,李秀彬.关于区域土地利用变化指数模型方法的讨论[J].地理学报,2003,58(5)：643-650.
[172].朱平一,程尊兰,汪阳春.西藏雅鲁藏布江中游地区泥石流及防灾对策[J].水土保持学报.2002,16(6)：69-75.
[173].朱西德,李林,秦宁生,等.青藏高原年降水量的气候变化及其异常类型研究[J].气象科学.2003,23(4)：452-459.
[174]. Sandstrom K森林能“提供”水分：广泛流传的神话还是科学事实[J].人类环境杂志(AMBIO),1998(27)：132-138
[175]. Alley R B, Marotzke J, Nordhaus W D,et el.Abrupt climate change [J].Science,2003,299:2005-2010.
[176]. Askew A J.Climate change and water resources [A].In:Solomon S I, Beran M, Hogg Weds. he Influence of Climate Change and Climatic Variability on the Hydrologic Regime and Water Resources [C].Oxfordshire:IAHS Press,1987.Vol 168,421-430.
[177]. Batelaan O, Smedt De F, Triest L, Regional ground water discharge:phreatophyte mapping, ground water modeling and impact analysis of land-use change. Journal of Hydrology,2003, (275):86-108.
[178]. Beniston M. Climatic Change:Implications for the Hydrological Cycle and for Water Management [M]. Dordrecht:Kluwer Academic Publishers,2002.
[179]. Bhaduri B. A geographic information system-based model of the Long-Term impact of land use change on non-point source pollution at watershed scale:Ph.D. thesis. West Lafayette:Purdue University,1998.
[180]. Bosch J.M., Hewlett J.D. A review of catchment experiments to determine the effect of vegetation changes on water yield and evapotranspiration. Journal of Hydrology,1982, (103): 323-333.
[181]. Bouraoui F., G.Vachaud, T.Chen. Prediction of the Effect of Climatic Changes and Land Use Management on Water Resources. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth,1998,23(4):379-384.
[182]. Bronstert Axel, Daniel Niehoff, Gerd Burger. Effects of climate and land-use change on storm runoff generation:present knowledge and modelling capabilities. Hydrological Processes, 2002,(16):509-529.
[183]. Brown,L R. Dust bowl threatening China's future. http://www.earth-policy.org/Alerts/Alert13.htm,2001.
[184]. Bruijnzeel L.A. Hydrology of Moist Forests and the Effects of Conversion:A State of Knowledge Review[R]. IHP-UNESCO Humid Tropical Programme, Paris, France.1990.
[185]. Burn D H, Elnur MAH.Detection of hydrologic trends and variability[J].Journal of Hydrology.2002.255:107-122.
[186]. Calder I R. Land use impacts on water resources. Land-Water Linkages in Rural Watersheds Electronic Workshop,18 September -27 October 2000, Background Paper No.1. FAO, Rome.
[187]. Calder I.R. Forests and hydrological services:reconciling public and science perceptions. Land Use and Water Resources Research,2002, (2):2.1-2.12.
[188]. Chaves J E,Neill C.Germer S,et al. Land management impacts on runoff sources in small Amazon watersheds.Hydrological Processes,2008,(22):1766-1775.
[189]. CrokeaB.F.W.,W.S.Merrittc,A.J.Jakemana.Adynamic model for predicting hydrologic response to land cover changes in gauged and ungauged catchments. Journal of Hydrology,2004, (291): 115-131.
[190]. CrooksS.,DaviesH. Assessment of land use change in the Thames Catchment and its effect on the flood regime of the river.Phys.Chem.Earth.,2001,26(7,8):583-591.
[191]. Daniel N,Fritsch U,Bronstert A,et al.Land-use impacts on storm-runoff generation:Scenarios of land use change and simulation of hydrological response inameso-scale catchment in SW2 Germany.Journal of Hydrology,2002,(267):80-93.
[192]. De Roo A.P.J. Modelling surface runoff and soil erosion in catchments using geographical information systems[R]. Netherlands:Utrecht.1993.
[193]. DeFries R., K.N. Eshleman. Land-use change and hydrologic processes:a major focus for the future. Hydrological Processes,2004, (18):2183-2186.
[194]. Ding Yihui,Sun Ying,Wang Zunya,et al.Inter-decadal variation of the summer precipitation in China and its association with decreasing Asian summer monsoon.PartⅡ:Possible causes. International Journal of Climatology, in press.
[195]. Disalvo A C,Hart S C.Climatic and stream flow controls on tree grow th in a western Montane riparian forest[J]. Environmental Management,2002,30(5):678-691.
[196]. Gaiser T,Krol M,Frischkorn H,et al.Global Change and Regional Impacts,Water Availability and Vulnerability of Ecosystems and Society in the Semi-Arid Northeast of Brizil.Heidelberg:Springer,2003.
[197]. Geist H J,Lambin E F. What drives tropical deforestation LUCC Report Series.2001, (4).
[198]. Guo H,Hu Q,Jiang T.Annual and seasonal streamflow responses to climate and land-cover changes in the PoyangLake basin,China.Journal of Hydrology,2008,(355):106-122.
[199]. HANNAH D M,SMITH B P G,GURNELL A M,et al.An approach to hydrograph classification[J].Hydrological processes,2000,14(2):317-338.
[200]. HARRIS N M,GURNELL AM,HANNAH D M,et al.Classification of river regimes:A context for hydro ecology[J].Hydrological processes,2000,14(16-17):2831-2848.
[201]. Houghton J T,Ding Y,Griggs D J,et al.Climate Change 2001:The Scientific Basis[M].UK:Cambridge University Press,2001:944.
[202]. Hutchinson M F.The application of thin plates plines to continent wide data assimilation.Data Assimilation Systems, BMRC Research Report No.27. Melbourne:Bureau of Meteorology, 1991:104-113.
[203]. IGBP. Global Change and the Earth System:A planet under pressure. IGBP Science 4,2001.
[204]. IPCC.Summary for policymakers of climate change 2007:The physical science basis.Contribution of working groupⅠ to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change [M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2007
[205]. Jones P D,Moberg A. Hemispheric and large-scale surface air temperature variations:An extensive revision and an update to 2001 [J].Journal of Climate,2003,16:206-223.
[206]. Juckem P F,Hunt R J,Anderson M P,et al.Effects of climate and land management change on streamflow in the driftless area of Wisconsin Journal of Hydrology,2008,(355):123-130.
[207]. Karvonen T.,Koivusalo H.,Jauhainen M.,et al.A hydrological model for predicting runoff from different land use areas. Journal of Hydrology,1999,(217):253-265.
[208]. Kendall M G.Rank Correlation Methods[M].Londan:Griffin,1975.
[209]. Lahmer W.,Pfiitzner B,Becker A. Assessment of land use and climate change impacts on Meoscale. Phys.Chem.Earth(B),2001,26(7-8):565-575.
[210]. Lee K S,Chung E S.Hydrological effects of climate change,ground water with drawal,and land use in a small Korean watershed. Hydrological Processes,2007,(21):3046-3056.
[211]. Li Li juan,Zhang Lu,Wang Hao.Assessing the impact of climate variability and human activities on streamflow from the Wuding River basin in China, Hydrological Processes,2007,21:3485-3491.
[212]. Lin Z,Wu X.A preliminary analysis about the tracks of moisture transportation on the Qinghai-Xizang plateau [J]. GeographResearch,1990,9(3):30-49.
[213]. LIU Xiao-dong,CHEN Bao-de.Climatic warming in the Tibet Plateau during recent deeades[J].Inter J Climatol,2000,20:1729-1742.
[214]. Machiwal D,Jha M K.Comparative evaluation of statistical tests for time series analysis: Application to hydrological time series [J].Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal DesSciences Hydrologiques,2008,53(2):353-366.
[215]. Maidment D R. Handbook of Hydrology. New York:McGRAW-HILL,1993,13.1-13.38.
[216]. Mann H B. Nonparametric tests against trend [J].Econometrica,1945,13:245-259.
[217]. Mccarth J J,Canziani O,Leary N A,et al. Climate Change 2001:Impacts,Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of WorkingGroupI to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernment Panel on Climate Change.Cambridge,United Kingdom:Cambridge University Press,2001:032.
[218]. Moussa R., Voltz M., Andrieux P. Effects of the spatial organization of agricultural management on the hydrological behaviour of a farmed catchment during flood events. Hydrological Processes,2002, (16):393-412.
[219]. PETIS G E,BICKERTON M A,CRAWFORD C,et al.Flow management to sustain groundwater dominated stream ecosystem[J].Hydrologica:Processes,1999,13:497-513.
[220]. Price D T,Mckenney D W,Nalder I A,et al. Acomparison of two statistical methods for spatial interpolation of Canadian monthly mean climate data.Agriculture and Forest Meteorology,2000,101:81-94.
[221]. Ren G,Xu M,Tang G,et al.Climate Changes of the past 100 years in China [R].Climate Change Newsletter.2003/2004,4-5.
[222]. Romanowicz A.A.,M.Vanclooster,M.Rounsevell,I.LaJunesse. Sensitivity of the SWAT model to the soil and land use data parametrisation:a case study in the Thylecatchment,Belgium.Ecological Modelling,2005,(187):27-39.
[223]. Sahin V.,Hall M.J.The effects of afforestation and deforestation on wateryields. Journal of Hydrology,1996,(178):293-309.
[224]. Schulze R E. Modeling hydrological responses to land use and climate change:a southern African perspective. AMBIO,2000,29(1):12-22.
[225]. Stocker T F, Raible C C. Water cycle shifts gear [J]. Nature,2005,434:830-832.
[226]. Thomas A. Sptial and temporal characteristies of potential evapotranspiration trends over China [J].International Journal of Climatology,2000,20(4):381-396.
[227]. Thornton P E,Running S W, White M A.Generating surfaces of daily meteorological variables over large regions of complex terrain. Journal of Hydrology,1997,190:214-251.
[228]. Tian Lide,YaoTandong,Numaguti A,et al.Relation between stable isotope in monsoon precipitation in southern Tibetan plateau and moisture transport history [J]. Science in China (SeriesD),2001,44(suppl):267-274.
[229]. Turner B L, Skole D, Sanderson S, et al. Land use and land cover change science/research plan. IGBP Report No.35 and HDP Report No.7. Stochkholm:IGBP,1995.
[230]. Turner B L II,Clark W C,Kates R W,et al.The earth astrans formed by humanaction.Global and regional changes in the biosphere over the past 300 years. Cambridge University Press(with Clark University).Cambridge,NewYork:Port Chester,Melbourne&Sydney,1990.
[231]. UNESCO. Hydrological effects of Urbanization [R]. Studies and Reports in Hydrology 18, Paris,France,1974.
[232]. US Academy of science climate. Climate change and water supply [M]. Washington D C:National Academy Press,1977.
[233]. Vander Weert R. Hydrological Conditions in Indonesia, Delft Hydraulics, Jakarta, Indonesia.1994.
[234]. Wang S F,Kang S Z,Zhang L,et al.Modelling hydrological response to different land-use and climate change scenarios in the Zamu River basin of northwest China.Hydrological Processes,2008,(22):2502-2510.
[235]. WMO. Water resources and climate change:sensitivity of water resources systems to climate change and variability [R].WMO/TO,1987.
[236]. Xu ZX,et al.Monotonic trend and step changes in Japanese precipitation.Journal of Hydrology,2003,279:144-150.
[237]. Yan H,Nix H A,Hutchinson M F,et al. Spatial interpolation of monthly mean climate data for China. International Journal of Climate,2005,25(10):1369-1379.
[238]. Ye Duzheng,JiangYundi,Dong Wenjie.The northward shift of climatic belts in China during the last 50 years and the corresponding seasonal responses.Advancesin Atmospheric Sciences,2003,20(6):959-967
[239]. Zhang Lujun,QianYongfu.Annual distribution features of the yearly precipitation in China and their interannual variations [J].ActaMeteorologica Sinica,2003,17(2):146-163.