基于碰撞与搁浅事故下油船的定量风险评估
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摘要
油船在航行过程中不可避免会发生碰撞、搁浅等海损事故。由于油船舷侧的防护较少,受到猛烈冲击后,会造成严重损伤,易引发溢油事故,且一旦遇到火源,极有可能升级为火灾和爆炸事故,危及设备和人员的安全,并对环境造成极大的污染。定量风险评估技术可以科学地预测事故发生概率及破坏程度,从而降低事故风险。近年来,定量风险评估技术在船舶与海洋工程领域内引起广泛的关注,建立油船运输风险评估体系,对提高油船运输的安全性具有非常重要的意义。
本文在研究风险评估理论的基础上,探讨了风险接受准则,对船舶碰撞、搁浅事故进行了风险识别;研究了事故发生概率的计算方法,建立了船舶碰撞、搁浅的计算模型,编写了相应的计算程序,并针对故障树分析技术的不足,引入贝叶斯网络技术,对导致船舶搁浅的人因可靠性因素进行分析;参照环境保护行业标准、利用NEPTUNE软件,分别对油船溢油事故后果进行了计算,预测了事故的影响范围,提出了降低风险的措施;结合发生的碰撞事故实际案例,实现了油船溢油风险的模糊综合评判。
本文主要工作及结论如下:
(1)阐述了风险评估理论,并对油船碰撞、搁浅事故进行了风险识别;比较了各种分析研究方法的优缺点,并从概率和后果两方面对抵御风险的措施进行了研究;探讨了个人风险、社会风险、环境风险三方面风险可接受准则及其制定方法。
(2)结合统计资料,分析了油船碰撞、搁浅事故发生的特点;基于二项式分布理论,预测了某典型海域的年度重大事故发生概率。
(3)依据P.T.Pedersen和Fujii碰撞模型、参考DNV过往船只与海洋平台碰撞风险的分析方法,建立了船舶碰撞、搁浅事故的数学计算模型,编写了相应的运算程序,计算了船舶在不同角度下发生碰撞事故和不同航道宽度发生搁浅事故的概率,并发现船舶碰撞事故发生的概率随着角度的增加呈指数增长,船舶搁浅事故发生的概率随着航道宽度的增加呈指数递减,结果与统计资料相一致。
(4)针对人因可靠性在影响船舶碰撞、搁浅的因素中占有主导地位,在研究故障树分析方法的基础上,引入了贝叶斯网络对导致搁浅事故的人为原因进行定量分析,分析出了导致事故发生的最有可能的事件顺序组合,结果与调查统计相符,并从降低事件发生概率考虑,提出了减灾的措施。
(5)分析了溢油对环境的危害和对人类生产活动的影响,参照环境保护行业标准对不同规模的溢油速率、油膜面积和油膜平均厚度进行了计算,并运用NEPTUNE软件与之进行对比;预测了火灾的发生概率,探讨了火灾的影响范围;从降低事故后果方面考虑,结合船舶特点,提出一种新型船用防火结构,取得了较好的防火效果。
(6)基于模糊综合评判理论,引入了溢油量、海域类型、油品特性、油船状况、气候海况、人员状况等相关因素作为模糊综合评判参数一级指标,并在此基础上进一步划分出了二级指标,运用了层次分析法,计算了各参数的权重系数,实现了油船溢油危害风险的模糊综合评判。
Marine accident is inevitable to aviod, such as collision and grounding accident, during oil tanker voyage. As oil tankers’side less protection, affected by the impact, oil tankers have been violently shaken, which may cause serious damage, easily lead to oil spills, and the event of fire. It is highly likely to escalate into a fire and explosion accidents, endangering the safety of equipment and personnel, and significant environmental pollution. Quantitative risk assessment techniques could scientifically predict the probability of accident and the extent of damage, thus reducing the risk of accidents. In recent years, it has aroused widespread concern in marine and ocean engineering field. It is significant important to establish the risk assessment of tanker transportation system, to improve the security of tanker transportation.
This paper summarizes the theory of risk assessment methods and risk acceptance criteria. Risk of vessel collision and grounding accidents are identified. Probability of accidents is calculated, in virtue of computer program. On account of fault tree analysis defect, Bayesian network technology is introduced to study human and organization factors. Based on industry standards and with NEPTUNE software, the consequences of oil spills from oil tanker are simulated, realized the scope of the accident and made a scientific prediction of risk reduction measures. Combined a collision accident occurred actually, study on multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation based on risk analysis.
In this paper, the work and conclusions were as follows:
(1) Seting out the theory of risk assessment, and tanker collision, grounding accidents risk identification; compares the advantages and disadvantages of various methods of analysis, and from both the probability and consequences of the measures of risks research; studies on the criteria of personal risk, social risk, environmental risk, after the vessel failure, for the acceptability of the ship and the development of methodologies.?
(2) According to statistics on oil tanker accidents, the oil tanker collision, grounding of the accident characteristics is analyzed; based on the binomial distribution theory, the waters of a typical annual probability of occurrence of major accidents is predicted.
(3) In accordance with P.T.Pedersen and Fujii collision model, refer to DNV passing ships and marine platforms collision risk analysis methods, the mathematical calculation model of vessel collision, grounding accidents is established, and computing programs are written to calculate the vessel at different angles collisions and different channel widths of the probability of an accident occurring grounding, which be found that the probability of ship collision accident increases exponentially as the perspective of growth, the probability of ship grounding incidents as the channel width increases exponentially decreasing, results and statistical data consistent.
(4) As human and organization errors analysis is a dominant position of vessel collision factors. Bayesian network is introduced to make a quantitative analysis about vessel grounding on account of fault tree analysis defect, list the most likely sequence of events, put forward risk reduction measures, and from reducing the probability of events to consider proposed mitigation measures.
(5) Analysis of the oil spill on the environment hazards and human impact of production activities, environmental protection industry standards and NEPTUNE software are used to calculate parameters such as oil spills speed, simulate the expanded scope. Then the probability and range of fire occurrence is predicted, proposing a new type of marine fire protection structures from reducing the accident consequences which achieved good fire protection.
(6) On the basis of the theory of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, six parameters, the quantity and character of oil, type of the sea, tanker condition, weather and human factors, have been introduced as 1st index, further divided into the 2nd index. The Analytic Hierarchy Process is used to calculate the weight coefficients of each parameter to achieve a tanker oil spill Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of risk harm.
本文在研究风险评估理论的基础上,探讨了风险接受准则,对船舶碰撞、搁浅事故进行了风险识别;研究了事故发生概率的计算方法,建立了船舶碰撞、搁浅的计算模型,编写了相应的计算程序,并针对故障树分析技术的不足,引入贝叶斯网络技术,对导致船舶搁浅的人因可靠性因素进行分析;参照环境保护行业标准、利用NEPTUNE软件,分别对油船溢油事故后果进行了计算,预测了事故的影响范围,提出了降低风险的措施;结合发生的碰撞事故实际案例,实现了油船溢油风险的模糊综合评判。
本文主要工作及结论如下:
(1)阐述了风险评估理论,并对油船碰撞、搁浅事故进行了风险识别;比较了各种分析研究方法的优缺点,并从概率和后果两方面对抵御风险的措施进行了研究;探讨了个人风险、社会风险、环境风险三方面风险可接受准则及其制定方法。
(2)结合统计资料,分析了油船碰撞、搁浅事故发生的特点;基于二项式分布理论,预测了某典型海域的年度重大事故发生概率。
(3)依据P.T.Pedersen和Fujii碰撞模型、参考DNV过往船只与海洋平台碰撞风险的分析方法,建立了船舶碰撞、搁浅事故的数学计算模型,编写了相应的运算程序,计算了船舶在不同角度下发生碰撞事故和不同航道宽度发生搁浅事故的概率,并发现船舶碰撞事故发生的概率随着角度的增加呈指数增长,船舶搁浅事故发生的概率随着航道宽度的增加呈指数递减,结果与统计资料相一致。
(4)针对人因可靠性在影响船舶碰撞、搁浅的因素中占有主导地位,在研究故障树分析方法的基础上,引入了贝叶斯网络对导致搁浅事故的人为原因进行定量分析,分析出了导致事故发生的最有可能的事件顺序组合,结果与调查统计相符,并从降低事件发生概率考虑,提出了减灾的措施。
(5)分析了溢油对环境的危害和对人类生产活动的影响,参照环境保护行业标准对不同规模的溢油速率、油膜面积和油膜平均厚度进行了计算,并运用NEPTUNE软件与之进行对比;预测了火灾的发生概率,探讨了火灾的影响范围;从降低事故后果方面考虑,结合船舶特点,提出一种新型船用防火结构,取得了较好的防火效果。
(6)基于模糊综合评判理论,引入了溢油量、海域类型、油品特性、油船状况、气候海况、人员状况等相关因素作为模糊综合评判参数一级指标,并在此基础上进一步划分出了二级指标,运用了层次分析法,计算了各参数的权重系数,实现了油船溢油危害风险的模糊综合评判。
Marine accident is inevitable to aviod, such as collision and grounding accident, during oil tanker voyage. As oil tankers’side less protection, affected by the impact, oil tankers have been violently shaken, which may cause serious damage, easily lead to oil spills, and the event of fire. It is highly likely to escalate into a fire and explosion accidents, endangering the safety of equipment and personnel, and significant environmental pollution. Quantitative risk assessment techniques could scientifically predict the probability of accident and the extent of damage, thus reducing the risk of accidents. In recent years, it has aroused widespread concern in marine and ocean engineering field. It is significant important to establish the risk assessment of tanker transportation system, to improve the security of tanker transportation.
This paper summarizes the theory of risk assessment methods and risk acceptance criteria. Risk of vessel collision and grounding accidents are identified. Probability of accidents is calculated, in virtue of computer program. On account of fault tree analysis defect, Bayesian network technology is introduced to study human and organization factors. Based on industry standards and with NEPTUNE software, the consequences of oil spills from oil tanker are simulated, realized the scope of the accident and made a scientific prediction of risk reduction measures. Combined a collision accident occurred actually, study on multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation based on risk analysis.
In this paper, the work and conclusions were as follows:
(1) Seting out the theory of risk assessment, and tanker collision, grounding accidents risk identification; compares the advantages and disadvantages of various methods of analysis, and from both the probability and consequences of the measures of risks research; studies on the criteria of personal risk, social risk, environmental risk, after the vessel failure, for the acceptability of the ship and the development of methodologies.?
(2) According to statistics on oil tanker accidents, the oil tanker collision, grounding of the accident characteristics is analyzed; based on the binomial distribution theory, the waters of a typical annual probability of occurrence of major accidents is predicted.
(3) In accordance with P.T.Pedersen and Fujii collision model, refer to DNV passing ships and marine platforms collision risk analysis methods, the mathematical calculation model of vessel collision, grounding accidents is established, and computing programs are written to calculate the vessel at different angles collisions and different channel widths of the probability of an accident occurring grounding, which be found that the probability of ship collision accident increases exponentially as the perspective of growth, the probability of ship grounding incidents as the channel width increases exponentially decreasing, results and statistical data consistent.
(4) As human and organization errors analysis is a dominant position of vessel collision factors. Bayesian network is introduced to make a quantitative analysis about vessel grounding on account of fault tree analysis defect, list the most likely sequence of events, put forward risk reduction measures, and from reducing the probability of events to consider proposed mitigation measures.
(5) Analysis of the oil spill on the environment hazards and human impact of production activities, environmental protection industry standards and NEPTUNE software are used to calculate parameters such as oil spills speed, simulate the expanded scope. Then the probability and range of fire occurrence is predicted, proposing a new type of marine fire protection structures from reducing the accident consequences which achieved good fire protection.
(6) On the basis of the theory of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, six parameters, the quantity and character of oil, type of the sea, tanker condition, weather and human factors, have been introduced as 1st index, further divided into the 2nd index. The Analytic Hierarchy Process is used to calculate the weight coefficients of each parameter to achieve a tanker oil spill Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of risk harm.
引文
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