大型能源项目投资风险管理研究
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摘要
能源是经济发展的物质基础,能源的有效供给对国民经济的发展至关重要,近年来伴随着我国经济持续稳定增长,能源需求量也迅速攀升,在未来十年内仍将大幅上升,为此,国家不断加大能源投资力度,建设大型能源基地、新型化工基地以确保能源供给。大型能源项目具有投资额大、周期长、技术含量高、决策难度大等特点,加之受市场、经济、政策等众多不确定因素的影响,其具有很高的投资风险。如何有效识别、评价和防范这些风险已经成为政府、企业和学术界普遍关注和亟待解决的问题。因此,本文在对国内外相关研究现状进行综述的基础上,综合应用风险管理理论、因子分析、结构方程模型等方法对大型能源项目投资风险管理进行了研究。主要研究成果如下:
(1)综合考虑能源行业特点及项目投资风险,识别出大型能源项目投资风险因素和风险后果,提出了23个风险因素和8个风险后果指标,初步形成了大型能源项目投资风险评价指标体系。借助因子分析方法,得出了大型能源项目五大关键投资风险因素及两大风险后果:经济政策因素、资源因素、技术因素、环境因素、管理因素和完工风险、运营风险。
(2)基于大型能源项目投资风险因子分析,根据现有的研究成果,提出了大型能源项目投资风险路径关系的19个假设以及相应的概念模型。运用结构方程模型(SEM)对概念模型和研究假设进行了验证。结果表明:完工风险的影响因素有管理、环境、资源;运营风险的影响因素有资源、经济政策、管理、环境、技术及完工风险。利用权重分析法得出了风险因素对风险后果的影响程度,即,完工风险:管理因素>环境因素>资源因素,运营风险:资源因素>经济政策因素>管理因素>环境因素>完工风险>技术因素。
(3)针对经济政策、资源、技术、环境、管理五大关键风险因素提出了防控措施,即:密切关注市场,科学分析预测;强调资源评估,规划资金人力;慎选技术设备,提高创新能力;制定应急预案,合理分散损失;完善管理体制,增强风险意识。
Energy is the material basis of economic development, effective energy supply is very important to the development of national economy, In recent years,with a steady growth of our economy, energy demand is rising rapidly, and it will still rising greatly in the next decade , therefore, our state increases investment to build energy base, new chemical base to ensure energy supply. Large energy project has features of big investment, long cycle, high technical, difficult decisions and so on, at the same time, it is influenced by uncertain factors such as market, economic and policy, it has high investment risk. How to effectively identify, evaluate and prevent the risk have become problems which government, enterprises and academia concerned and need to be solved. Therefore, based on the summary of domestic and foreign relevant research, this paper comprehensively applies risk management theory, factor analysis and structural equation model, studies on investment risk management of large energy project, makes the following main research results:
(1)Considering the energy industry characteristics and investment project risk, this paper identifies large energy project investment risk factors and risk consequences, proposes 23 risk factors and 8 risk consequences index, initially forms a large energy project investment risk evaluation index system. Using factor analysis method, this paper obtains five key investment risk factors and two key risk consequences of large energy project: economic policy factor, resources factor, technological factor, environmental factor, management factor, completion risk and operation risk.
(2)Based on factor analysis of large energy project investment risk, according to the existing research results, this paper puts forward 19 risk path relations hypothesis of large energy project investment risk and corresponds a conceptual model. Using the structural equation modeling (SEM), verifies the conceptual model and the research hypotheses. Results show that: risk factors for completion include management, environment and resources; risk factors for operation include economic policy, management, environment, technology and completion risk. Using the weight method obtains the degree that risk factors influence the consequences, namely, completion risk: Management factors> Environmental factors> Resource factors, operation risk: Resources factor > Economic policy factor> Management factor > Environmental factor> Completion risk > Technological factor.
(3)This paper puts forward prevention and control measures in view of five key investment risk factors of economic policy, resources, technology, environment and management, namely: Pay attention to market closely, analyze and forecast scientifically; emphasize resources evaluation, plan funds and human resources; choose technical equipment carefully, improve innovation ability; make emergency plans, scatter loss reasonably; perfect management system, strengthen risk awareness.
(1)综合考虑能源行业特点及项目投资风险,识别出大型能源项目投资风险因素和风险后果,提出了23个风险因素和8个风险后果指标,初步形成了大型能源项目投资风险评价指标体系。借助因子分析方法,得出了大型能源项目五大关键投资风险因素及两大风险后果:经济政策因素、资源因素、技术因素、环境因素、管理因素和完工风险、运营风险。
(2)基于大型能源项目投资风险因子分析,根据现有的研究成果,提出了大型能源项目投资风险路径关系的19个假设以及相应的概念模型。运用结构方程模型(SEM)对概念模型和研究假设进行了验证。结果表明:完工风险的影响因素有管理、环境、资源;运营风险的影响因素有资源、经济政策、管理、环境、技术及完工风险。利用权重分析法得出了风险因素对风险后果的影响程度,即,完工风险:管理因素>环境因素>资源因素,运营风险:资源因素>经济政策因素>管理因素>环境因素>完工风险>技术因素。
(3)针对经济政策、资源、技术、环境、管理五大关键风险因素提出了防控措施,即:密切关注市场,科学分析预测;强调资源评估,规划资金人力;慎选技术设备,提高创新能力;制定应急预案,合理分散损失;完善管理体制,增强风险意识。
Energy is the material basis of economic development, effective energy supply is very important to the development of national economy, In recent years,with a steady growth of our economy, energy demand is rising rapidly, and it will still rising greatly in the next decade , therefore, our state increases investment to build energy base, new chemical base to ensure energy supply. Large energy project has features of big investment, long cycle, high technical, difficult decisions and so on, at the same time, it is influenced by uncertain factors such as market, economic and policy, it has high investment risk. How to effectively identify, evaluate and prevent the risk have become problems which government, enterprises and academia concerned and need to be solved. Therefore, based on the summary of domestic and foreign relevant research, this paper comprehensively applies risk management theory, factor analysis and structural equation model, studies on investment risk management of large energy project, makes the following main research results:
(1)Considering the energy industry characteristics and investment project risk, this paper identifies large energy project investment risk factors and risk consequences, proposes 23 risk factors and 8 risk consequences index, initially forms a large energy project investment risk evaluation index system. Using factor analysis method, this paper obtains five key investment risk factors and two key risk consequences of large energy project: economic policy factor, resources factor, technological factor, environmental factor, management factor, completion risk and operation risk.
(2)Based on factor analysis of large energy project investment risk, according to the existing research results, this paper puts forward 19 risk path relations hypothesis of large energy project investment risk and corresponds a conceptual model. Using the structural equation modeling (SEM), verifies the conceptual model and the research hypotheses. Results show that: risk factors for completion include management, environment and resources; risk factors for operation include economic policy, management, environment, technology and completion risk. Using the weight method obtains the degree that risk factors influence the consequences, namely, completion risk: Management factors> Environmental factors> Resource factors, operation risk: Resources factor > Economic policy factor> Management factor > Environmental factor> Completion risk > Technological factor.
(3)This paper puts forward prevention and control measures in view of five key investment risk factors of economic policy, resources, technology, environment and management, namely: Pay attention to market closely, analyze and forecast scientifically; emphasize resources evaluation, plan funds and human resources; choose technical equipment carefully, improve innovation ability; make emergency plans, scatter loss reasonably; perfect management system, strengthen risk awareness.
引文
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