贸易开放引致的我国多维收入分配失衡研究
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摘要
我国自上世纪80年代推行贸易开放战略以来,迄今已走过三十多年的历程,成绩斐然。而与此同时,随着贸易开放的深入,我国也出现了收入分配格局日益失衡的局面。没有增长的未来是令人担忧的,没有公平的未来更是让人难以承受。因此,如何在贸易开放中客观地辨析收入分配失衡及其原因、并思考有效的解决途径是当代尤为重要的课题之
论文首先在文献研究基础上,分别从我国贸易开放的制度安排、结构和绩效三个层面以及收入分配的失衡程度、历史变迁和国际比较三个视角出发归纳出我国贸易开放与多维收入分配失衡的典型化事实以及时空共变现象。其次,论文运用典型相关分析、向量自回归模型以及非参数检验法对我国贸易开放与多维收入分配失衡的上述典型化事实进行了经验观察与检验,并梳理出二者就整体观而言存在显著的典型相关关系；以及贸易开放的结构特征是我国宏观收入分配格局失衡的单向格兰杰原因；贸易开放的绩效特征与要素收入分配是我国微观收入分配失衡的单向格兰杰原因；偏向型、渐进式的制度特征则是我国空间收入分配失衡的单向格兰杰原因；且我国空间收入分配格局存在一定的路径依赖的内部关联机制。在上述经验研究结果的启示下,论文综合运用要素禀赋理论、均衡失业与搜寻成本理论以及贸易政治经济学理论对我国贸易商品结构、劳动市场变迁、资本流动是如何通过价格机制、数量机制以及权力优势来影响我国宏观要素收入分配格局问题进行理论论证；并通过引入阿特金森指数,在社会福利理论基础上运用瓦尔拉斯比较静态均衡分析法诠释了贸易开放导致我国微观居民收入分配失衡的理论机理；论文进一步基于系统演化的路径依赖和复杂网络理论,运用随机方程、以及复杂网络中的小世界和无标度原则,构建了一个路径依赖理论框架,尝试从空间聚集、规模经济的视角来论证和阐释了我国贸易开放是如何引发我国空间收入分配失衡,并出现路径依赖的原因。第四,在对我国国情与问题的经验观察和理论分析基础上,论文将研究拓展到对同处于贸易开放大环境下的发达国家以及拉美国家的国别和历史经验进行比较和借鉴上,并得出同在贸易开放的条件下,不同的政策取向会产生不同收入分配结果的结论。
最后,在上述所有内外部研究结论的启示下,论文从我国国情出发,借鉴国别经验,根据丁伯根原则,提出了贸易开放转型期我国多维收入分配失衡问题需要通过实行积极的劳动市场政策、提供必要的福利保障以及合理规划贸易战略布局来解决。惟有政策并重,才能在我国实现公平与效率的共赢,实现社会包容式发展。
During the past three decades, China has made remarkable achievements since trade openness strategy started in1980's. However, these successes are also followed with widening income gaps. No future growth maybe bothering, but no equity in future must be unbearable. Thus, to identify the stylized facts and causalities of inequality in the context of openness, and to explore the effective strategies for addressing the problems are the crucial themes in contemporary times.
Started with the literature research, this dissertation generates the stylized facts on trade openness and on income distribution in the following two chapters. Studies on the former are based on its own institution, structure and performance nature, while explorations of the later, under the former context, are concluded from the extent, historical and international perspectives. Multiple time and space co-variations are apparently found during the identification process. Based on the stylized facts, the dissertation gives further empirical investigations on the relationship between trade openness and income inequality in the next chapter. The findings shows that there is a significant canonical correlation between trade openness and income inequality from an integral perspective; and the one-way Granger cause of macro inequality due to structural nature of trade openness, while one-way Granger causes of micro inequality due to the performance nature of openness and factor distribution are both discovered; Furthermore, Biased and Gradual institution nature of trade openness are responsible for the regional gaps. Informed by the empirical evidence above, chapter six first applies factor endowment theory, equilibrium unemployment and searching cost theory, and political economy of trade to interpret how capital flow, transformation of labor market and trade commodity structure cause China's increasing factor income disparity through price, quantity and power mechanism; Then, by introducing Atkinson index, and social welfare theory as well, the dissertation demonstrates how trade openness affects our micro inequality in a Warlas comparative static general equilibrium model; As for regional side, the dissertation develops a theoretic path dependence model to explain how regional income distribution evolves with China's gradual trade openness. The principles of small-world and scale-free in complex network are also applied here to further explain why path dependence occurs in regional inequality evolution with economies of scale and spatial agglomeration. After inward empirical and theoretic analysis, chapter seven extends to some outward country-specific comparative studies on the developed economies under different welfare systems, as well as Latin American historical experience.
Along with these increased understandings of how trade openness contributes to China's multi-dimensional income distribution and international cases, the last chapter presents a policy discussion around this theme. Adopting Tinbergen Rule, the dissertation highlights the respective roles played in income distribution improvement of three kinds of economic policies:necessary welfare safety net, positive labor market and appropriate trade strategies, therefore, equity and efficiency win-win state can be achieved with social cohesive development.
论文首先在文献研究基础上,分别从我国贸易开放的制度安排、结构和绩效三个层面以及收入分配的失衡程度、历史变迁和国际比较三个视角出发归纳出我国贸易开放与多维收入分配失衡的典型化事实以及时空共变现象。其次,论文运用典型相关分析、向量自回归模型以及非参数检验法对我国贸易开放与多维收入分配失衡的上述典型化事实进行了经验观察与检验,并梳理出二者就整体观而言存在显著的典型相关关系；以及贸易开放的结构特征是我国宏观收入分配格局失衡的单向格兰杰原因；贸易开放的绩效特征与要素收入分配是我国微观收入分配失衡的单向格兰杰原因；偏向型、渐进式的制度特征则是我国空间收入分配失衡的单向格兰杰原因；且我国空间收入分配格局存在一定的路径依赖的内部关联机制。在上述经验研究结果的启示下,论文综合运用要素禀赋理论、均衡失业与搜寻成本理论以及贸易政治经济学理论对我国贸易商品结构、劳动市场变迁、资本流动是如何通过价格机制、数量机制以及权力优势来影响我国宏观要素收入分配格局问题进行理论论证；并通过引入阿特金森指数,在社会福利理论基础上运用瓦尔拉斯比较静态均衡分析法诠释了贸易开放导致我国微观居民收入分配失衡的理论机理；论文进一步基于系统演化的路径依赖和复杂网络理论,运用随机方程、以及复杂网络中的小世界和无标度原则,构建了一个路径依赖理论框架,尝试从空间聚集、规模经济的视角来论证和阐释了我国贸易开放是如何引发我国空间收入分配失衡,并出现路径依赖的原因。第四,在对我国国情与问题的经验观察和理论分析基础上,论文将研究拓展到对同处于贸易开放大环境下的发达国家以及拉美国家的国别和历史经验进行比较和借鉴上,并得出同在贸易开放的条件下,不同的政策取向会产生不同收入分配结果的结论。
最后,在上述所有内外部研究结论的启示下,论文从我国国情出发,借鉴国别经验,根据丁伯根原则,提出了贸易开放转型期我国多维收入分配失衡问题需要通过实行积极的劳动市场政策、提供必要的福利保障以及合理规划贸易战略布局来解决。惟有政策并重,才能在我国实现公平与效率的共赢,实现社会包容式发展。
During the past three decades, China has made remarkable achievements since trade openness strategy started in1980's. However, these successes are also followed with widening income gaps. No future growth maybe bothering, but no equity in future must be unbearable. Thus, to identify the stylized facts and causalities of inequality in the context of openness, and to explore the effective strategies for addressing the problems are the crucial themes in contemporary times.
Started with the literature research, this dissertation generates the stylized facts on trade openness and on income distribution in the following two chapters. Studies on the former are based on its own institution, structure and performance nature, while explorations of the later, under the former context, are concluded from the extent, historical and international perspectives. Multiple time and space co-variations are apparently found during the identification process. Based on the stylized facts, the dissertation gives further empirical investigations on the relationship between trade openness and income inequality in the next chapter. The findings shows that there is a significant canonical correlation between trade openness and income inequality from an integral perspective; and the one-way Granger cause of macro inequality due to structural nature of trade openness, while one-way Granger causes of micro inequality due to the performance nature of openness and factor distribution are both discovered; Furthermore, Biased and Gradual institution nature of trade openness are responsible for the regional gaps. Informed by the empirical evidence above, chapter six first applies factor endowment theory, equilibrium unemployment and searching cost theory, and political economy of trade to interpret how capital flow, transformation of labor market and trade commodity structure cause China's increasing factor income disparity through price, quantity and power mechanism; Then, by introducing Atkinson index, and social welfare theory as well, the dissertation demonstrates how trade openness affects our micro inequality in a Warlas comparative static general equilibrium model; As for regional side, the dissertation develops a theoretic path dependence model to explain how regional income distribution evolves with China's gradual trade openness. The principles of small-world and scale-free in complex network are also applied here to further explain why path dependence occurs in regional inequality evolution with economies of scale and spatial agglomeration. After inward empirical and theoretic analysis, chapter seven extends to some outward country-specific comparative studies on the developed economies under different welfare systems, as well as Latin American historical experience.
Along with these increased understandings of how trade openness contributes to China's multi-dimensional income distribution and international cases, the last chapter presents a policy discussion around this theme. Adopting Tinbergen Rule, the dissertation highlights the respective roles played in income distribution improvement of three kinds of economic policies:necessary welfare safety net, positive labor market and appropriate trade strategies, therefore, equity and efficiency win-win state can be achieved with social cohesive development.
引文
5 Anthony B. Atkinson, Francois Bouignon, Handbook of Income Distribution, Vol. 1pp 1
6 Kevin H. O'Rourke and Jeffrey G. Williamson, European Review of Economic History
26 “一旦有了土地私有和资本积累,劳动者独享全部劳动生产物的这种原始状态就宣告终结了”见亚当斯密《国富论》1937年英文版,第一卷,第248页。
41 Sanjeev Gupta Economic issues (International Monetary Fund); Vol.16. Should Equity Be a Goal of Economic Policy? IMF Fiscal Affairs Department.1998
46 Hans Reichenbach The Rise of Scientific Philosophy (1951),
47 1980年我国颁布并实施了我国第一部《中华人民共和国中外合资经营企业法》：1982年3月第5届全国人大常委会第22次会议通过的“关于国务院机构改革问题的决议”对外贸行政管理体制进行一些改革,外贸行政管理开始实行分级制管理。
48 1987年为例,全国已批准设立各类外贸公司2200多家,比1979年增加了11倍多。
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46 Hans Reichenbach The Rise of Scientific Philosophy (1951),
47 1980年我国颁布并实施了我国第一部《中华人民共和国中外合资经营企业法》：1982年3月第5届全国人大常委会第22次会议通过的“关于国务院机构改革问题的决议”对外贸行政管理体制进行一些改革,外贸行政管理开始实行分级制管理。
48 1987年为例,全国已批准设立各类外贸公司2200多家,比1979年增加了11倍多。
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